Crypto World
Bitcoin Heads For Worst Quarter Since 2018 With 22% Drop
Bitcoin may be headed for its worst first quarter in eight years, with data showing Bitcoin is already down 22.3% since the start of the year.
The asset began the year trading around $87,700 and has declined by around $20,000 to current lows of around $68,000, putting it on track for its worst first quarter since the 2018 bear market — which fell almost 50%, according to CoinGlass.
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined in seven of the past thirteen Q1s, with the most recent being 2025 when it lost 11.8%, 2020 when it shed 10.8%, and the largest ever, 2018, when it dumped 49.7% in just three months.
“The first quarter of the year is known for its volatile nature,” observed analyst Daan Trades Crypto on Sunday.
“So it’s safe to say, whatever happens in Q1 does not generally translate over further down the line, according to the historical price action,” he added.
First-ever red Jan and Feb?
BTC has only ever seen two consecutive first quarters of losses in the bear market years of 2018 and 2022.
Comparatively, Ether (ETH) has only seen red in three of the past nine first quarters, with the current period shaping up to be its third-worst historically, with 34.3% losses so far.
Related: Bitcoin loses $2.3B in biggest crash since 2021 as capitulation intensifies: Analyst
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also on track to see its first-ever consecutive January and February in the red. The asset lost 10.2% in January and is down 13.4% so far this month. It needs to reclaim $80,000 to prevent a red February.
Bitcoin is in a correctional phase
Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the ongoing decline in BTC price amid persistent global economic uncertainty “reflects a regular correctional phase rather than a structural breakdown in the asset’s long-term trajectory.”
“While short-term pressures could intensify if macroeconomic headwinds persist, historical patterns show Bitcoin’s resilience often leads to strong recoveries in later months, particularly as institutional adoption and halving cycle dynamics continue to strengthen its potential,” he added.
Meanwhile, BTC has entered its fifth consecutive week of losses, falling 2.3% over the past 24 hours to $68,670 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.
Magazine: Coinbase misses Q4 earnings, Ethereum eyes ‘V-shaped recovery’: Hodler’s Digest
GBP/USD started a downside correction from 1.3700. USD/CAD is gaining bullish momentum and might clear 1.3640 for more upside.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today
· The British Pound rallied toward 1.3700 before the bears appeared.
· There is a declining channel forming with support near 1.3585 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
· USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3555 support zone.
· There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3555 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.3700, as discussed in the previous analysis. The British Pound failed to stay above 1.3700 and started a downside correction below 1.3660 against the US Dollar.
The pair traded below 1.3630, the 50-hour simple moving average, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3508 swing low to the 1.3712 high.
Finally, the bulls appeared near 1.3600, and the pair trimmed some losses. It is back above 1.3630 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Immediate hurdle on the upside is near 1.3665.
The first major resistance is 1.3710. The main sell zone sits at 1.3740. A close above 1.3740 might spark a steady upward move. The next stop for the bulls might be near 1.3800. Any more gains could lead the pair toward 1.3880 in the near term.
If there is a fresh decline, initial bid zone on the GBP/USD chart sits at 1.3635. The next major area of interest could be 1.3585. There is also a declining channel forming with support near 1.3585, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.3510.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/CAD at FXOpen, the pair formed a strong base above 1.3500. The US Dollar started a fresh increase above 1.3540 and 1.3550 against the Canadian Dollar.
More importantly, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3555. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3724 swing high to the 1.3504 low.
The pair is now consolidating above the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is another increase, the pair might face hurdles near 1.3640 and the 61.8% Fib retracement.
A clear upside break above 1.3640 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the pair could test 1.3725. A close above 1.3725 might send the pair toward 1.3800. Any more gains could open the doors for a test of 1.3920.
Initial support is near the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3590. The next key breakdown zone could be 1.3555. The main hurdle for the bears might be 1.3505 on the same USD/CAD chart.
A downside break below 1.3505 could push the pair further lower. The next key area of interest might be 1.3465, below which the pair might visit 1.3420.
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Binance founder Changpeng Zhao says fully transparent on-chain transactions expose salaries and business data, blocking real-world adoption of crypto payments.
Summary
- Changpeng Zhao argues that current on-chain transparency exposes corporate workflows and sensitive financial information.
- He warns that crypto payroll on public blockchains would reveal individual salaries via visible sender addresses.
- Zhao and industry voices say practical crypto payments need stronger privacy tools to win institutional adoption.
Unexplained Chinese bot traffic is colliding with a second, quieter crisis: AI‑driven forgery and identity abuse that even crypto’s most seasoned insiders now struggle to parse.
Ghost traffic and warped reality
In a recent Wired article, the author notes that over the last several months of 2025 and into 2026, small publishers, corporates, and even US agencies have watched their analytics fill up with “visitors” from Lanzhou and Singapore—sessions that rarely touch servers, leave no firewall traces, and yet dominate GA4 dashboards. As one analytics firm bluntly summarized it, these are “ghost sessions” generated by bots capable of triggering measurement calls while mimicking basic user behavior. The effect is not just technical noise: inflated sessions distort engagement metrics, ad yield, and campaign performance, especially for niche sites where a few hundred fake visits can flip a trend line.
This fog of synthetic traffic lands at the same time as a deepfake wave that is starting to outpace human intuition. Changpeng “CZ” Zhao recently admitted that an AI‑generated clip in flawless Mandarin was so accurate he “couldn’t distinguish that voice from [his] real voice,” calling the realism “scary” and warning that “even a video call verification will soon be out of the window.” His alarm follows scams where fully AI‑generated meeting participants convinced a Hong Kong finance team to wire roughly 25 million in corporate funds.
CZ’s privacy paradox
Zhao has begun to connect these threats to a deeper structural flaw in today’s internet and in public blockchains themselves. Privacy, he argues, is a “fundamental human right,” yet “current blockchains… provide too much transparency,” especially once KYC data links real‑world identities to on‑chain addresses. He has described the “lack of privacy” as “the missing link holding back crypto payment adoption,” warning that fully transparent ledgers make salaries, vendor flows, and even “ice cream preferences” trivially traceable.
The irony is brutal. On one side, overstated transparency—hyper‑indexed traffic logs, fully public transaction graphs—creates rich attack surfaces for state‑scale scrapers and commercial data brokers. On the other, AI systems now generate fake humans, fake traffic, and fake “proof” at industrial scale, eroding trust in every digital signal, from a GA4 session to a board‑level video call. When analytics can be flooded from servers routed through Singapore while GA4 “thinks” it sees Lanzhou, even basic questions (“Who visited my site?”) become non‑trivial.
Zhao’s answer is not to abandon transparency, but to harden it—pushing for privacy‑preserving tools such as zero‑knowledge proofs, and for verifiable identity rails that can flag deepfaked personas without exposing full financial lives on‑chain. In practice, that means building systems where origin, integrity, and consent can be cryptographically checked, while granular data—whether web sessions or payroll flows—remains shielded by design. The alternative is visible in today’s dashboards: a web that looks “busy,” yet is increasingly unreadable.
Markets: crypto as stress barometer
These moves comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $68,531, with a 24‑hour range between roughly $68,096 and $70,898 on about $39.4B in volume. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands near $2,053, after a 24‑hour move of about 5.5%, with trading volumes above $22.5B and recent lows under $1,910. Solana (SOL) has recently traded in the $200–$220 band, with on‑chain liquidity crossing 1B and bulls eyeing the $236–$252 zone.
For now, bots from “Lanzhou” and face‑swapped executives share a common lesson: in an AI‑saturated market, privacy and transparency are no longer opposites. They are joint prerequisites for any data stream investors can still afford to trust.
Yesterday’s gains were quickly erased in the cryptocurrency markets, with some alts, such as PI, DOGE, and XRP, marking big losses.
Bitcoin’s weekend price rally came to an end at just over $70,000, and the asset was pushed south to $68,000, where it found some support.
Most altcoins have turned red as well, with ETH going below $2,000 and XRP plummeting beneath $1.50. Dogecoin is among the worst performers in the past 24 hours.
BTC Rally Stopped Above $70K
The primary cryptocurrency went through some enhanced volatility at the start of the current month, mostly downward. The culmination took place on February 6, when it plunged to a 15-month low at $60,000 after losing $30,000 in just under two weeks.
Then came the bounce-off as BTC rocketed by $12,000 to $72,000. It was stopped there and spent the following few days trading sideways between $72,000 that $68,000. The lower boundary gave in mid-week, and bitcoin slipped to under $66,000.
The bulls finally stepped up after this point and helped prevent another leg down. Just the opposite, BTC started to gain traction at the end of the business week and jumped to over $69,000. It continued to climb above $70,000 on Saturday and Sunday before it was stopped there and driven to $68,000 on Sunday evening.
It has recovered some ground since then, but still trades below $69,000 as of press time. Its market cap is down to $1.375 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts stands still at 56.6%.
Alts Heading South
Ethereum was quickly rejected at $2,100 over the weekend and now struggles below the psychological $2,000 level. Ripple’s XRP skyrocketed yesterday to over $1.65 but was stopped and pushed south to under $1.50 as of press time. DOGE was the top gainer yesterday from the larger-caps, but it’s now down to $0.10 after a 9% daily drop.
Other big losers over the past day include XMR, ZEC, WLFI, and MNT. Pi Network’s native token has also faced a violent rejection. It was stopped at over $0.20 yesterday and is now down to just over $0.17 on CoinGecko.
The total crypto market cap has lost $70 billion in a day and is down to $2.425 trillion on CG.
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Today’s traditional banking system has become too comfortable in encouraging society to overshare while underdelivering on security guarantees. Never has a financial system demanded such a sacrifice of an individual’s personal data. KYC requires legal identity, biometric data, address history, and device fingerprints, which are all bundled together and stored indefinitely by third parties.
Summary
- KYC turned privacy into collateral damage: Banks demand passports, biometrics, and device data — then store it in breach-prone databases that individuals can never truly reclaim.
- Finance has shifted from neutral infrastructure to permissioned gatekeeper: Access can be frozen, revoked, or denied — turning participation into a conditional privilege.
- Zero-knowledge tech offers a third path: Prove eligibility without surrendering identity, enabling transparency for systems and privacy for individuals.
Once that information leaves an individual’s control, it can be copied, breached, and sold to anyone. Even when companies act in good faith, the data itself becomes a liability. You cannot replace a passport the same way you can replace a lock. If we lose control of our fingerprint, address, and name, then who do we become if not a prisoner to an interdependent hive mind of capital structures that feed off the intelligence of the masses? For those who value privacy and autonomy, KYC isn’t a quality of life feature; it’s subconscious theft.
KYC: The irreversible surrender
KYC is often justified in the name of safety, but centralised safety is still a centralised risk. Large databases of sensitive information become magnets for attackers, insiders, and state actors alike. Recent incidents include Coinbase insiders exploiting customer data for extortion and Finastra, a software provider to 45 of the world’s largest 50 banks, losing 400gb of sensitive information in a data breach orchestrated by cyber criminals. History shows that no system is immune to breach, and no regulatory framework ever prevents exponential growth. What begins as ‘just for withdrawals’ quietly expands into continuous monitoring, indefinite retention, and mandatory sharing. Over time, the database itself becomes the weakest point in the system, and it rigs the world around you.
Neutrality in banking is dead
Last year, UK high street bank Lloyds was found to have used banking data from 30,000 of its own staff members to influence pay talks. This sort of treachery doesn’t just expose a dysfunctional system; it confirms that data will be used against individuals in plain sight. Blind consent can come at serious personal cost, whether implicit or explicit, and the reason it’s so alluring is that the consequence of failure rarely falls on the institution that collected the data; it falls on the individual whose lives become harder in ways that cannot be reversed.
There is also a deeper shift that happens once identity becomes a prerequisite for participation. KYC does not simply verify who someone is; it establishes permission. Someone decides who gets access, under what conditions, and with what ongoing oversight. Finance stops being neutral infrastructure and becomes a system of gates.
That change matters. A financial system built on permission inevitably reflects the values, incentives, and pressures of those who control it; accounts can be frozen, and access can be revoked. Geopolitical tensions rising across the globe, coupled with stricter KYC demands, mean that over 850 million people will soon, if not already, be excluded from digital banking systems altogether, not because they are criminals, but because they lack stable documents, stable addresses, or stable geopolitical status. For much of the world, financial access isn’t a right, but a merely temporary privilege.
This is why the claim that privacy is only for people who have something to hide has always been a toxic lie. Privacy is not about hiding wrongdoing, it is about preserving what makes each individual who they are, and protecting them from a world becoming evermore comfortable with surveillance. A society where all economic activity becomes an extension of your CV isn’t safe; it’s a surveillance state.
Privacy needs transparency to succeed
The challenge has never been choosing between privacy and transparency, but learning how to build systems that honour both equally. Transparency is essential for systems to function well. We need visibility into flows, patterns, and outcomes to detect abuse, improve infrastructure, and govern responsibly. While transparency requires visibility and authentication to be effective, it doesn’t need to see everything; it can still see movements, trends, and anomalies as a silhouette.
The rise of cryptography in recent years has seen significant breakthroughs in financial privacy technology. Zero-knowledge encryption layer 1 ecosystems such as Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) are surging as many firms are now weighing up the impact of becoming hardened by Zcash, bringing the relationship between privacy and transparency into sharper focus, as many search for a societal alternative to the normalisation of KYC practices.
Zero-knowledge encryption’s strongest asset is that it allows the general population to prove eligibility without revealing identity; selective disclosure that limits what is shared to what is strictly necessary; and user-held credentials that remove the need for centralised databases altogether. Transactions can be tracked under persistent, pseudonymous identifiers that allow systems to learn and adapt without tying activity to real-world identity. A participant can be recognised as the same actor over time, allowing for accountability, analytics, and improvement, without creating a permanent identity honeypot.
Things must get uglier before they’ll get better
Although the market is moving positively toward privacy in a world that feels more dangerous by the day, zero-knowledge encryption is still a long way from becoming the norm. This means anyone who values their privacy in 2026 will have to endure exclusion, loss, and uncertainty if they are not willing to comply with the alternative.
Every web3 breakthrough is inherently still a long-term experiment, one that intersects painfully with both financial traditionalism and conservative politics. New organisational forms are rarely elegant at the beginning, and unregulated early-stage blunders often spook the political establishment. Corporations, democracies, and public markets all went through ugly, unstable phases before they matured; decentralised systems will too.
Mistakes will be made, and scandals will happen, but infrastructure hardens over time, and what feels like a hefty compromise today becomes tomorrow’s default, and today’s gold standard will become tomorrow’s scandal. Once zero-knowledge practices are normalised, they will not contract, but expand.
After all, being at the tip of the spear means you can strike the heart first, and in time, when the world sees that the traditional banks have sold everyone’s souls down the river, the right people will be forced to pay attention.
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson breaks down what moved the markets last week and unpacks the strategic implications of the most critical events driving global markets.
📌 Key topics covered in this episode:
✔️ What Happened in the Markets Last Week
Japan’s election result reinforced political stability, lifting the Nikkei to record highs, while the yen unexpectedly strengthened due to positioning shifts and changing monetary policy expectations. Although the currency is supported for now, a sustained reversal in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is not yet confirmed.
✔️ UK
Sterling has been supported by dollar weakness and relatively firm UK data, while EUR/GBP remains in correction mode. Upcoming UK unemployment data on 17 February and UK inflation on 18 February could trigger sharp moves, especially if inflation continues to exceed expectations and challenges rate-cut pricing. Would persistently high inflation force a major repricing of the Bank of England’s rate outlook and boost GBP further?
✔️ United States
The US dollar remains under pressure after its late-January sell-off, with limited fundamental support for a sustained recovery. However, the PCE Price Index on 20 Februarycould spark short-term volatility. With markets expecting the Fed to hold rates until at least June, any inflation surprise may quickly reprice policy expectations and move FX and equity markets. Could an upside surprise in PCE inflation revive dollar strength by shifting expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut?
Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.
💬 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more professional market insights every week.
Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Standard Chartered just dropped a fear signal on Solana. They cut their 2026 target to $250. But then they doubled down on a bold $2,000 call by 2030.
That is a sharp contrast. Near term pressure. Long term conviction.
The bank sees Solana shifting away from pure speculation toward real utility. That kind of transition is rarely smooth. It can mean volatility now and growth later.
- Target Adjustment: 2026 prediction cut from $310 to $250, citing transitional risks.
- Long-Term Bull: 2030 target set at $2,000, driven by dominance in micropayments.
- Market Signal: Analysts see the shift from memecoins to stablecoins as a key utility driver.
What Standard Chartered’s Revised Targets Mean for Solana
Standard Chartered sees Solana at a turning point. Geoffrey Kendrick, who leads digital asset research at the bank, says SOL is shifting away from its memecoin casino image and moving toward something more serious. More infrastructure. More real finance.
That shift is not frictionless. The revised $250 target for 2026 reflects that transition. Growth is still there, but it may not look like the explosive runs from past cycles.
For retail investors, it is a trade off. The near term upside could be more measured. But the long term foundation looks stronger if real utility keeps building.
Solana Price Prediction: Breaking Down the New SOL Valuations
The roadmap is detailed. Standard Chartered trimmed the 2026 target to $250 from $310, expecting a period of consolidation as activity shifts.
But after that, the projections accelerates. $400 by 2027. $700 in 2028. $1,200 in 2029. And $2,000 by the end of 2030.
The thesis centers on network velocity. Stablecoin turnover on Solana is reportedly 2 to 3 times higher than on Ethereum, which makes it well suited for fast, low value transactions. That kind of throughput is what long term valuation models are leaning on.
Solana coins have continued to leave exchanges. Historically, that kind of outflow points to accumulation. So even with a short-term downgrade, some players appear to be positioning for the bigger picture.
The post Solana Price Prediction: Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Target, Sees $2,000 by 2030 appeared first on Cryptonews.
Quantum computing risks are weighing on Bitcoin’s (BTC) relative valuation against gold, according to analyst Willy Woo.
The development of quantum computing has spread concerns across the tech and financial sectors, as future breakthroughs could potentially undermine current encryption standards. Although such capabilities are not considered imminent, the long-term threat has raised questions about Bitcoin’s security model and how markets price that uncertainty.
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Has Quantum Computing Entered the Bitcoin Valuation Equation?
Woo argued that Bitcoin’s 12-year outperformance relative to gold has broken, marking a significant structural shift. He pointed to the rising market awareness of quantum computing risks as a reason behind this shift.
“12 YR TREND BROKEN. BTC should be a valued a LOT HIGHER relative to gold. Should be. IT’S NOT. The valuation trend broke down once QUANTUM came into awareness,” Woo said.
Bitcoin’s security relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA over secp256k1). A sufficiently advanced, fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could theoretically derive private keys from exposed public keys and compromise funds associated with those on-chain addresses.
Such technology is not yet capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption. Nonetheless, a key concern, Woo argues, is the potential reactivation of an estimated 4 million “lost” BTC. If quantum breakthroughs made those coins accessible, they could re-enter circulation, effectively increasing supply.
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To illustrate the scale, Woo explained that corporations following MicroStrategy’s 2020 playbook and spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately 2.8 million BTC. The possible return of 4 million lost coins would exceed that total, equivalent to roughly eight years of enterprise-level accumulation at recent rates.
“The market has started pricing in the return of these lost coins ahead of time. This process completes once the Q-Day risk is off the table. Until then, BTCUSD will price in this risk. Q-Day is 5 to 15 years away… that’s a long time trading with a cloud over its head,” he emphasized.
He acknowledged that Bitcoin would likely adopt quantum-resistant signatures before any credible attack becomes feasible. However, upgrading cryptography would not automatically resolve the status of these coins.
“I’d say it’s 75% chance that lost coins will not be frozen by a protocol hard fork,” the analyst remarked. “Unfortunately the next 10 years is when BTC is most needed. It’s the end of the long term debt cycle, it’s where macro investors and sovereigns run to hard assets like gold to shelter from global debt deleveraging. Hence gold moons without BTC.”
Woo’s analysis does not suggest that quantum attacks are imminent. Instead, it positions quantum computing as a long-term variable factored into Bitcoin’s relative valuation, particularly in comparison to gold.
Meanwhile, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, offered a complementary perspective on how quantum risk may be influencing market behavior. According to Edwards, concerns surrounding the quantum threat were likely a key factor that drove Bitcoin’s price lower.
The quantum threat is also shaping real portfolio moves. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood reduced a 10% Bitcoin allocation in favor of gold and mining stocks, citing quantum concerns. This highlights that institutional investors see quantum computing as a significant risk, not a remote one.
The crypto market remains under pressure on Monday despite U.S. equity futures rising by around 0.25% since midnight UTC.
Bitcoin trades at $68,710, having lost 0.1%. Altcoins such as HYPE, ZEC and XMR are down by more than 3%.
Ether is one of Monday’s outliers, rising by 0.43% since midnight as it claws its way back to $2,000 after a grueling weekend selloff was spurred by selling pressure from trader Garrett Jin.
Onchain data shows a wallet attributed to Jin deposited more than $540 million worth of ether to Binance over the weekend, leading to a disproportionate rise in sell volume compared with other exchanges.
That pressure translated into oversold conditions that ultimately set the scene for Monday’s recovery.
Gold is changing hands at $5,000 on Monday, down from its Jan. 29 peak of $5,600 but outperforming silver and crypto, which are down by 36% and 21% respectively over the same period.
U.S. markets are closed on Monday due to a public holiday.
Derivatives positioning
- The crypto futures market continues to see capital outflows, with notional open interest (OI), or the dollar value of total open or active contracts, dropping to $98 billion.
- De-risking is seen across the board, with OI falling 1% and 2.7% in bitcoin and ether futures, respectively, over 24 hours. XRP, DOGE, SUI and ADA saw declines of 6% or more.
- OI in futures tied to gold token XAUT rose 8% as traders continued to deploy capital in traditional assets.
- BTC and ETH’s 30-day implied volatility has reversed the massive pop from annualized 50% to nearly 100% earlier this month, when prices crashed. The reversal indicates a massive pricing out of volatility risks, supporting the case for price recovery.
- The spread between ether and bitcoin implied volatility indexes is beginning to widen, indicating expectations for bigger swings in ether.
- Funding rates for several alternative tokens, such as XRP, TRX, DOGE and SOL, remain negative, indicating a trader preference for bearish, short positions. If the market remains resilient, these bears may feel compelled to square off their bets, potentially leading to a “short squeeze” higher.
- SOL futures on CME show an annualized premium near zero, a sign of buy-side pressure fading fast. BTC and ETH futures are trading with slight premiums.
- On Deribit, someone paid $3 million in premium for the $75,000 strike bitcoin call option. The massive flow likely represents a bullish bet on the market.
- Still, put options tied to BTC and ETH remain pricier than calls across all time frames, a sign of lingering downside concerns.
Token talk
- The altcoin market experienced a familiar, low-liquidity drift lower on Sunday before a slight recovery on Monday morning.
- Popular memecoin is down by more than 10% in the past 24 hours but has steadied since midnight UTC, while XRP has risen by 1% by midnight despite losing 8% of its value since Sunday morning.
- Layer zero (ZRO) continues to lose momentum after its early February rally, falling by more than 34% over the past five days including a 10% drawdown in the past 24 hours. The plummet comes after the introduction of a native blockchain in collaboration with Wall Street veterans Citadel Securities and DTCC.
- The heavily bitcoin-weighted CoinDesk 5 (CD5) Index rose by 0.38% since midnight UTC while the altcoin-dominated CoinDesk 80 (CD80) lost 0.17% over the same period, demonstrating relative altcoin weakness.
Bitcoin is entering a pivotal macro week as it hovers near $68,600 on February 16, 2026. After a volatile start to the year, including a sharp retracement from 2025 highs above $126,000, markets remain highly sensitive to US economic data.
Tariff tensions, sticky inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts have kept risk assets on edge. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, liquidity is thinner than usual, a factor that could amplify volatility once major data begins midweek.
US Economic Data Crypto Traders Must Watch This Week
Traders are focused on four key releases: the January FOMC minutes on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s Q4 GDP revision alongside December PCE inflation.
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According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing just 9.8% odds of a March rate cut, reflecting skepticism that easing is imminent.
In this environment, even modest surprises could determine whether Bitcoin tests $70,000 resistance or revisits the $60,000 support zone.
FOMC Minutes
The release of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)minutes will likely set the week’s tone.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% during its last meeting, signaling caution amid resilient growth and persistent services inflation.
FOMC minutes on Wednesday will provide deeper insight into policymakers’ internal debates, particularly around inflation risks, labor strength, and tariff-related pressures.
A hawkish tone emphasizing sticky inflation or upside risks could reinforce “higher for longer” expectations. Historically, similar signals have triggered 3–5% Bitcoin pullbacks within 24 hours as Treasury yields rise and liquidity expectations tighten.
Conversely, any language suggesting balanced risks or growing concern over slowing growth could revive rate-cut speculation.
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In holiday-thinned trading conditions, even subtle dovish cues may be enough to push Bitcoin toward $70,000.
Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday’s jobless claims report offers a real-time snapshot of labor market health, a core pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate.
Consensus expects roughly 220,000 new filings for the week ending February 14, down from 227,000 previously.
A reading below 210,000 would reinforce labor resilience and reduce the likelihood of near-term easing. That outcome could pressure Bitcoin 1–3% lower as markets recalibrate rate-cut expectations.
On the other hand, claims above 230,000 would raise concerns about softening employment conditions. In past cycles, weaker labor prints have boosted risk assets on the assumption that the Fed may pivot sooner. Such a scenario could lift Bitcoin 2–4% as easing bets increase.
With BTC consolidating between $68,000 and $69,000, this release may serve as a bridge between Wednesday’s Fed insight and Friday’s inflation data.
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Q4 2025 GDP (Final Revision)
Friday’s final Q4 GDP revision is expected to show +2.5% annualized growth, a significant step down from the initial +4.4% estimate.
A downside surprise below 2.3% would reinforce slowdown narratives and potentially boost Bitcoin 3–6% as markets price in earlier policy relief. Softer consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, would be closely watched.
However, a print above 2.7% could complicate the outlook. Strong growth may delay easing, reinforcing “higher for longer” expectations and weighing on crypto markets.
Bitcoin remains highly correlated with equities during major macro releases. Strong growth combined with persistent inflation has historically triggered short-term BTC pullbacks.
PCE & Core PCE
The week’s most important catalyst arrives with December’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Expectations call for +0.3% month-over-month increases in both headline and core PCE, with year-over-year readings around 2.8–2.9%.
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A cooler-than-expected 0.2% MoM print would signal further disinflation progress. That outcome could meaningfully increase the probability of a rate cut and spark a 4–8% Bitcoin rally, potentially pushing prices decisively above $70,000.
But a hotter print above 0.3% would reinforce sticky inflation concerns, likely triggering 3–5% downside pressure as yields climb and easing hopes fade.
Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, will carry particular weight for policymakers and traders alike.
From Fed messaging to labor resilience, growth revisions, and inflation data, each release feeds directly into expectations for 2026 monetary policy.
With Bitcoin stabilizing near $68,600 but still well below its 2025 highs, the market remains acutely sensitive to liquidity signals.
Dovish surprises across the board could reignite risk appetite and drive a breakout toward $70,000 and beyond. Hawkish data, however, may deepen the correction toward $60,000–$65,000.
By mid-February, discussions about Dogecoin (DOGE) had become noticeably more active. DOGE holders expect the meme coin to stage a strong recovery after losing more than 75% of its value since last year.
Several catalysts have fueled this renewed optimism. The key question remains whether these factors are strong enough to drive a sustained price rebound.
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Elon Musk’s Influence Over DOGE Is Making a Comeback
Data from LunarCrush, a social intelligence platform for crypto investors, show that mentions of Dogecoin increased by 33.19% over the past month compared with the previous month.
This unusually strong rise indicates that community interest in the meme coin has returned in force.
LunarCrush reports that discussions have focused on DOGE’s technical analysis, Elon Musk’s influence on the token, and the possibility of deeper integration of DOGE into X’s ecosystem.
Charts show that DOGE-related topics began trending upward after February 12. On that same day, Elon Musk revealed that X Money had entered internal testing with X employees. The company expects a limited rollout to users within the next one to two months.
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DOGE holders expect X Money to accept DOGE for payments. Their expectations stem from Musk’s previous references to DOGE as an example for micropayments.
On February 14, Nikita Bier, Head of Product at X, announced that the platform will soon allow users to trade cryptocurrencies directly from their timelines through clickable “Smart Cashtags.”
“X is reportedly in internal testing for stock and crypto trading, sparking speculation about Dogecoin and $XRP integration. Analysts suggest Dogecoin could reach $1 or $2 quickly, with recent social posts highlighting potential price pumps and Elon Musk’s influence.” LunarCrush reported.
Price Rebounds
Although these arguments remain speculative and lack any official confirmation, DOGE’s price rebounded following these developments.
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Data from TradingView shows that DOGE climbed from $0.09 to above $0.11 before correcting to around $0.10.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades predicts that DOGE could reclaim the $0.16–$0.17 range in the short term. This level aligns with the 200-day moving average (MA200).
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The recent recovery has strengthened short-term bullish sentiment. However, several structural concerns continue to cloud the long-term outlook.
Recent ETF data highlights ongoing weakness in institutional demand. The DOGE Spot ETF has recorded zero net inflows since the beginning of February. This stagnation reflects limited interest from institutional investors.
Since the launch of DOGE ETFs in the United States, total net assets across these funds have reached only $8.69 million. This figure remains modest compared to other major crypto ETFs.
Dogecoin’s unlimited supply model also presents a structural challenge. The network mints approximately 5 billion new DOGE each year. This continuous issuance raises concerns about the preservation of long-term value.
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