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Bitcoin holds $66K as Iran ground operation talk builds

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and new utility protocols

A new report about possible US ground action in Iran has added fresh tension to global markets. 

Summary

  • Washington Post said planners reviewed Iran ground raid options while Bitcoin held near $66,500 Sunday.
  • Bitcoin stayed flat through Sunday trading as investors waited for traditional markets to reopen overnight.
  • Officials kept diplomacy in focus even as reports outlined possible raids near Iran’s Kharg Island.

Bitcoin stayed near $66,500 on Sunday, but traders are watching whether broader risk assets react more sharply when US markets reopen.

The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is preparing options for ground operations in Iran that could last for weeks. The planning includes Special Operations forces and conventional infantry, though it remains unclear whether President Donald Trump would approve that step.

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The reported options include moves against Kharg Island and other coastal targets near the Strait of Hormuz. The report described the planning as limited raids rather than a full invasion, with US officials weighing how far to push military pressure while the war enters its fifth week.

Even with those reports, public statements from top officials still point to a diplomatic track. On March 26 that Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the war should last “weeks, not months” and that the United States could meet its goals without ground troops, even as contingency plans stay in place.

At the same time, regional diplomacy has not ended. The Associated Press reported that mediators gathered in Pakistan for talks aimed at ending the monthlong war, even as fighting continued and both sides kept pressure on key energy and security routes.

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Bitcoin holds steady as traders wait for market reaction

Bitcoin showed a muted reaction over the weekend. It traded at about $66,561 on Sunday, with a narrow intraday range, after earlier war-related swings pushed the asset below $69,000 during the past week.

That price action fits a recent pattern. Earlier this month crypto markets sold off when conflict headlines intensified, while other reports this week showed Bitcoin losing ground as risk appetite weakened.

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Crypto World

Onchain Commodity Trading Grows, but Liquidity still Favors TradFi

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Onchain Commodity Trading Grows, but Liquidity still Favors TradFi

Onchain commodity trading is proving it’s more than a short-term spike, but limited liquidity continues to hold the market back from competing with traditional venues.

Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market recorded a new all-time high on March 23, with roughly $5.4 billion in perpetual futures volume across commodities and macro assets. Silver led the activity at $1.3 billion, followed by WTI crude oil at $1.2 billion, Brent crude at $940 million and gold at $558 million. Equity indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, also saw notable volumes.

HIP-3 per volume. Source: Artemis

Industry participants say the spike shows growing demand for macro exposure onchain. “Previously, onchain commodity futures were mostly a venue for crypto-native investors, that is no longer the whole story,” said Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo. “The real tell is not just the volume, it’s when the volume shows up and who is showing up to trade.”

Ioppe noted that onchain oil futures markets are now processing more than $1 billion in daily volume over weekends, when traditional exchanges are offline. He said the shift is being driven in part by individual traders from traditional finance, who are accessing these markets through personal accounts. “Geopolitics does not stop on Friday afternoon, and markets are starting to adapt to that fact,” he said.

Related: S&P Dow Jones licenses S&P 500 perpetual futures for Hyperliquid

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Weekend gap gives onchain markets an edge

The ability to trade around the clock has emerged as a defining advantage for onchain venues. With a roughly 49-hour gap between the close of traditional markets on Friday and their reopening on Sunday, decentralized platforms have become one of the few places where traders can react to macro developments in real time.

That dynamic is starting to influence how prices are formed outside regular trading hours, even if the bulk of liquidity still sits in traditional markets. “For now, onchain is the price discovery layer when the rest of the market is asleep,” Ioppe said. “TradFi is still the depth layer when size matters most.”

On the CME, oil futures alone regularly see between 1 million and 4.5 million contracts traded daily, equivalent to roughly $100 billion to $300 billion in notional volume.

Crude oil futures and volume. Source: CME

“Traditional venues still dominate when it comes to liquidity, execution quality, and institutional-scale pricing depth,” Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch, said. He noted that deeper liquidity and tighter spreads remain the main barrier. Without them, onchain markets struggle to handle large trades without moving prices, limiting institutional participation.

Additional challenges include pricing reliability, market structure maturity and regulatory clarity, according to Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research.

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Young said commodity tokenization shows “signs of real behavioral changes” but remains in an early phase, with gaps in liquidity and price aggregation still to be addressed.

Related: Perp DEXs become the latest battleground for blockchains

Onchain macro trading expands beyond commodities

Despite certain constraints, activity continues to build. “The broader direction is clear: traders are becoming more comfortable accessing macro-style exposure onchain,” Kunz said.

Gold and oil have led the current wave, but market participants expect similar patterns to emerge in other asset classes as volatility shifts.

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Ioppe concluded that trading activity on onchain futures markets is likely to persist as trust builds around weekend pricing. As more traders begin to rely on these markets during off-hours, volume starts to follow. That, in turn, supports growing open interest, reinforcing confidence in the prices being formed. Over time, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle, where higher participation strengthens market credibility and draws in even more flow.

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