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Bitcoin is Positioning for ‘War is Ending’ Narrative Ahead of Trump’s Iran Speech

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Bitcoin held steady near the $68,000 range on Wednesday as markets braced for a key speech from President Donald Trump on the Iran war. Reports suggest Trump may signal that the conflict is nearing an end, possibly within weeks, while framing recent actions as a strategic success.

However, despite the “war ending soon” narrative gaining traction, Bitcoin’s intraday data shows a more cautious market beneath the surface.

Rallies Sold, Not Built

Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows a clear trend: sellers dominated most of the day.

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After an early push higher, CVD steadily declined into negative territory. This means more aggressive sell orders hit the market than buys. In simple terms, traders used price strength to exit positions rather than build new ones.

Even during small recoveries later in the day, selling pressure continued. That signals weak conviction behind the upside.

Bitcoin CVD on April 1, 2026. Source: TradingView

Volume Confirms Distribution

On-Balance Volume (OBV) tells a similar story.

While Bitcoin’s price moved sideways for much of the session, OBV trended lower. This divergence suggests that volume flowed out of the asset, not into it.

Put simply, the market was not accumulating Bitcoin. Instead, it was quietly distributing, with sellers outweighing buyers over the full session.

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Bitcoin On-Chain Volume on April 1, 2026. Source: TradingView

Late Buyers Step In — But Lightly

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) adds a final layer.

The indicator flipped slightly positive toward the end of the day, showing that some buyers stepped in during the final hours. However, the move remained modest and inconsistent.

This suggests dip-buying activity, but not strong or sustained demand.

Bitcoin CMF on April 1, 2026. Source: TradingView

Market Prepares, But Doesn’t Commit

Taken together, the data points to a market positioning defensively.

Bitcoin appears to be pricing in the possibility of de-escalation. Yet traders are not aggressively betting on a breakout. Instead, they are selling into strength and waiting for confirmation.

The pattern aligns with a broader “sell the news” setup.

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Bitcoin Price Chart Over the Past Week. Source: CoinGecko

A Narrative Priced In — But Not Trusted

If Trump confirms a near-term end to the conflict, markets may react positively at first. However, Bitcoin’s flow data suggests that much of this expectation is already priced in.

For now, the market is not chasing the narrative. It is preparing for it — cautiously.

The post Bitcoin is Positioning for ‘War is Ending’ Narrative Ahead of Trump’s Iran Speech appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Crypto World

Trump Threatens to Hit Iran Extremely Hard in the Coming Weeks

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Trump Threatens to Hit Iran Extremely Hard in the Coming Weeks

Crude oil rose to over $100 a barrel while Bitcoin fell 2% after a national address by US President Donald Trump on the conflict in Iran, where he vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next few weeks. 

Speaking at the White House on Wednesday during an address to the nation, Trump said the US military is “very close” to finishing “Operation Epic Fury,” claiming to have wiped out Iran’s nuclear and naval capabilities while also significantly hampering its drones, missiles and weapon factories.

“I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly. Very shortly, we are going to hit them extremely hard over the next 2 to 3 weeks.”

Stocks, crude oil, and crypto prices have been impacted by conflict in the Middle East over the last few months. Oil prices eased on Tuesday after Trump said the war would be wrapping up in the next few weeks, though his latest speech has seen it rise again. 

At the time of writing, the price of crude oil has spiked back above $100 per barrel to $103.59. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dipped by around 1% over the course of the speech and has since fallen further to $66,904, down 2% since the start of the speech.

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However, Trump also said discussions are ongoing. Both sides have made key demands for ending the conflict, with the US pushing for Iran to dismantle its nuclear programs, open up commercial shipping channels and stop regional support for proxy groups.

Iran wants a permanent end to the war, compensation for damages and an end to US military presence in the region, among other demands.

“The new group is less radical and much more reasonable. Yet, if during this period of time no deal is made, we have our eyes on key targets.”

Source: The White House

Trump says oil blockade will end soon

Conflict in the Middle East intensified in February after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran. This ultimately saw Iran respond by leading a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to cut oil supply on one of the world’s busiest shipping channels.

Related: Who is Kevin Warsh? Trump’s Fed pick wants ‘regime change’ at central bank

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The president claimed that the stock market will pick back up soon as the conflict begins to wind down, while gas prices will drop as he argued that Iran will remove the blockade “naturally” so that it can start rebuilding the economy.

“And in any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It’ll just open up naturally. They’re going to want to be able to sell oil because that’s all they have to try and rebuild. It will resume flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down. Stock prices will rapidly go back up,” he said.

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