TLDR:

• Bitcoin’s LTH SOPR has dropped to 0.88, a level not seen since the close of the 2023 bear market cycle. 
• Long-term holders are now realizing losses on average, marking a sharp shift from historically resilient behavior. 
• Daily BTC inflows to Binance have reached twice the annual average across several consecutive days recently. 
• Rising exchange inflows from long-term holders signal sustained selling pressure that may weigh on Bitcoin’s short-term recovery.

Bitcoin long-term holders are beginning to feel the weight of a prolonged market correction. The asset remains more than 45% below its previous all-time high.

This sustained decline is creating financial pressure across a wide range of investors. Even the most resilient market participants are now adjusting their behavior in response. The shift marks a notable change for a group known for holding up under difficult conditions.

LTH SOPR Drops Below Key Threshold

The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has recently crossed below the critical level of 1. It currently sits at 0.88, a level not recorded since the close of the 2023 bear market.

This reading means long-term holders are, on average, selling at a loss. That alone represents a meaningful change in market behavior.

Analyst Darkfost noted in a post on X that the annual average LTH SOPR remains at 1.87. However, the short-term reading has moved well below that average.

The gap between the two figures reflects how quickly conditions have shifted. It points to growing financial strain within a historically patient group of investors.

When long-term holders begin realizing losses, it often signals a deeper phase of market stress. These participants typically sell only when they see value or face genuine pressure.

A move into negative SOPR territory suggests the latter is increasingly the case. The trend warrants close attention from market observers.

The drop below 1.0 also carries weight because of the size of this investor group. Long-term holders control a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Their decisions carry more influence over price than those of short-term traders. A sustained pattern of loss realization could weigh on recovery efforts.

Rising Binance Inflows Point to Increased Activity

At the same time, long-term holder inflows to Binance have increased sharply in recent weeks. Daily inflows have reached roughly twice the annual average on several consecutive days.

This level of activity is considered exceptionally elevated by historical standards. It points to a clear and deliberate shift in behavior among this group.

Darkfost also noted that this pattern has been building since the last all-time high. The acceleration in recent weeks adds further context to the SOPR data.

Together, the two indicators tell a consistent story about how long-term holders are responding. They are actively managing their exposure rather than simply waiting out the correction.

Binance remains the platform of choice for this activity due to its liquidity. Large holders need deep markets to move significant volumes without major price disruption.

The exchange’s market depth makes it practical for participants managing large positions. Their preference for Binance is therefore a logical outcome of their size.

Rising inflows from long-term holders to exchanges are generally viewed as a bearish signal. More Bitcoin moving onto platforms increases the available supply for sale.

This dynamic could continue to apply downward pressure in the short to medium term. The market may need time before this adjustment phase runs its course.