Stablecoin newcomer Open USD (OUSD), hasn’t actually inked a deal with 149 companies, despite what it claimed when it launched this week.

OUSD was created by Open Standard, which claimed earlier this week that a consortium of firms had “signed up” to use it. 

The firm’s CEO, Zach Abrams, said, “We’re thrilled to bring together over 140 businesses to launch Open USD. It’s a stablecoin built for the internet economy, designed by the businesses growing it.”

However, the South Korean news outlet Chosun Biz reports that several of the South Korea-based firms listed haven’t actually signed up for anything. 

An official for Samsung Electronics told the outlet, “There were no official consultations, and we do not know what role we will play (in the alliance).”

For years, Michael Saylor’s Strategy built its brand around a simple mantra: Buy Bitcoin. Never sell. This week, that narrative changed.  

The company authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales under a new capital framework. At current prices, that equates to roughly 21,000 BTC that could eventually hit the market — a reminder that even Bitcoin’s most committed corporate holder isn’t immune to the realities of capital management.

This week’s Crypto Biz explores how the digital asset industry is entering a more pragmatic phase, where ideological purity is giving way to financial discipline. It also examines the intensifying stablecoin race as issuers compete for reserve yield, Fidelity’s latest defense of Bitcoin’s long-term security model and the crypto industry’s growing political influence ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections.

Strategy authorizes $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to fund dividends, buybacks

Strategy has authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales under a new capital framework that will fund shareholder dividends, bolster cash reserves and repurchase stock while preserving its long-term Bitcoin strategy.

The company’s new “Digital Credit Capital Framework” raises the annual dividend on its STRC preferred stock from 11.5% to 12%, establishes a formal Bitcoin monetization program and expands capital return initiatives through buybacks of preferred securities and MSTR shares. Strategy also said its dedicated cash reserve has grown to $2.55 billion, enough to cover roughly 17 months of preferred dividends and interest payments.

The framework reflects an evolution in Strategy’s capital allocation. After years of insisting it would never sell Bitcoin, the company has now established a formal monetization program and disclosed selling 32 BTC in June. Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases last week, leaving its holdings unchanged at 847,363 BTC as it places greater emphasis on liquidity management alongside its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Source: Michael Saylor

Payments giants back new stablecoin to challenge USDT, USDC

More than 140 financial and crypto companies have joined forces to launch a new US dollar-backed stablecoin that lets participants retain the yield generated by its reserves, marking one of the industry’s biggest coordinated stablecoin initiatives to date.

The Open USD (OUSD) project is backed by major payments companies, including Visa and Mastercard, alongside crypto companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, OKX and Bybit. Unlike traditional stablecoin models, OUSD will allow businesses to mint tokens without fees or volume limits while keeping the reserve earnings — a feature supporters say could help the token gain market share from incumbents Tether’s USDt (USDT) and Circle’s USDC (USDC).

The launch comes as the US adopts a more favorable regulatory stance toward stablecoins following passage of the GENIUS Act. Open Standard plans to roll out OUSD later this year, entering a market already worth more than $300 billion that many analysts expect to expand rapidly over the rest of the decade.

Source: Open Standard

Fidelity says Bitcoin’s long-term security isn’t threatened by halving

Fidelity Digital Assets is pushing back against claims that Bitcoin’s long-term security will weaken as mining rewards decline, arguing that rising transaction fees, market incentives and Bitcoin’s price appreciation should continue to keep the network secure.

In a new research report, Fidelity said Bitcoin’s economic model extends beyond block subsidies, challenging the view that successive halving events will eventually undermine miners’ incentives. Research analyst Daniel Gray noted that although block rewards have steadily declined, average daily miner revenue has grown from $1.3 million between 2012-2016 to $40.2 million today. 

The report comes as Bitcoin miners grapple with mounting financial pressure following the latest halving. Many publicly traded mining companies are expanding into AI and high-performance computing to diversify revenue streams, even as Fidelity maintains that the network’s long-term security model remains intact.

Source: Fidelity Digital Assets

Crypto industry pours $189 million into 2026 US elections

Crypto companies have contributed roughly $189 million to the 2026 US election cycle, accounting for an estimated 37% of all corporate political spending so far, according to a new report by consumer advocacy group Public Citizen.

The report found that crypto-backed political action committees (PACs) are once again driving much of the industry’s political influence. Fairshake has spent more than $82 million this cycle, while the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. Super PAC — heavily backed by Crypto.com — has spent more than $56 million. Public Citizen said the groups are following the same strategy used in 2024, backing candidates from both major parties who support the industry’s policy agenda.

Crypto’s political spending has already surpassed the roughly $170 million deployed during the 2024 election cycle, with more than four months remaining before November’s elections. 

Source: Public Citizen

Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

Coinbase stock has climbed nearly 19% in the past five trading sessions even as Bank of America says investors are pulling money out of U.S. equities at the fastest pace since March.

According to a Bloomberg report, Bank of America told clients that U.S. equity funds recorded $17.2 billion in outflows during the week ending July 1, the first weekly withdrawals since March.

The bank’s note also showed that Japanese equity funds attracted $1.9 billion over the same period, their strongest weekly inflows since May, suggesting that investors are rotating capital away from U.S. stocks and into Japan.

Despite that backdrop, Coinbase Global has continued to outperform. The stock closed 3.92% higher at $165 on July 2 and has rallied from about $139 on June 26, extending its five-day gain to roughly 19%.

The rally has not been limited to Coinbase. Crypto-linked equities also advanced alongside the recovery in digital asset prices, with Strategy (MSTR) gaining around 7% and Circle (CRCL) adding nearly 4% during July 2 trading.

Europe expansion adds another growth catalyst

Alongside improving market sentiment, Coinbase is positioning itself to capture new business in Europe following the implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.

According to a crypto.news report, several crypto firms that did not comply with MiCA requirements exited the European market after the July 1 deadline, while Coinbase remained operational under the new regulatory regime. The report noted that the exchange is attempting to attract users affected by those departures by offering a 5% transfer bonus to customers who move assets onto its platform.

If Coinbase succeeds in onboarding a meaningful share of those users, the increase in trading activity and transaction fees could support revenue during the July-to-September quarter, although the company has not disclosed any projections tied to the promotion.

Institutional investors have also continued to add exposure. ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, recently purchased 68,366 Coinbase shares, reinforcing confidence in the exchange even as sentiment toward U.S. equities has weakened.

Technical indicators point to improving momentum

From a technical standpoint, Coinbase shares are attempting to reverse the downtrend that has been in place since early May.

On the 4-hour chart, the stock has rebounded above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $156.9 and is now testing a descending trendline that has repeatedly rejected previous rallies. A decisive breakout above that trendline could strengthen the recovery and open the door to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $170.9, followed by $180.7, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the May-to-June decline.

Momentum indicators are also improving. The MACD has produced a bullish crossover, while the histogram has turned positive, indicating that buying pressure is increasing after several weeks of weakness.

At the same time, the Supertrend indicator remains in bullish territory, with support positioned near $144.8. Holding above both the Fibonacci support and the Supertrend could encourage buyers to continue challenging higher resistance levels.

However, failure to break the descending trendline may leave Coinbase vulnerable to another pullback toward the $156.9 support area before buyers make another attempt to resume the recovery.

US lawmakers have pushed the CLARITY Act back into the center of crypto policy debate. Reports say the Senate could release final bill text this weekend, giving markets a clearer view of Washington’s plan. The move would mark a key step for a digital asset framework that has faced years of delay.

Senate Text Could Shape Next Crypto Policy Step

The expected Senate text could define how US regulators oversee digital assets. It may also clarify the roles of the SEC and CFTC. Therefore, the release could shape the next phase of crypto lawmaking.

Earlier expectations for a July 4 signing have faded. Senator Bill Hagerty has indicated that action may come after Congress returns from recess. Lawmakers are now looking toward the period after July 13.

The shift does not end the bill’s momentum. Instead, it shows that Senate leaders still need more time. The final text could also reveal whether lawmakers changed key market structure provisions.

The CLARITY Act aims to set rules for crypto exchanges, token issuers, and related platforms. It seeks to reduce confusion that has grown under enforcement-led oversight. Supporters argue that clear rules could keep digital asset activity inside the United States.

The bill still faces a difficult vote count in the Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats, but the bill needs at least 60 votes. As a result, at least seven Democrats must support the measure.

Democratic Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Ruben Gallego backed the bill in committee. However, both avoided a firm pledge for the final Senate vote. That position keeps the path open, but it also leaves uncertainty.

Political Support Strengthens the Bill’s Position

Fresh backing from Republican leaders has helped keep the bill active. Senator Tim Scott has said clear rules can help innovation grow. He also linked the measure to consumer protection and US financial leadership.

The Senate debate comes after years of pressure from crypto firms and policy groups. Many companies have asked Congress to replace unclear guidance with direct law. Meanwhile, regulators have continued enforcement actions against several major digital asset firms.

That background gives the CLARITY Act wider policy importance. It could become one of the most important crypto market structure bills in Washington. It may also influence how future stablecoin and token rules develop.

Lawmakers may adjust the bill to win broader support. They could refine consumer protection language and oversight powers. They could also address concerns about state authority and federal agency control.

The bill’s supporters want rules that reduce legal risk for compliant firms. However, critics may argue that weak standards could expose users to harm. That debate will likely continue once the Senate releases the final version.

Law Enforcement Endorsement Adds New Weight

The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives has endorsed the CLARITY Act. The group became the first major law enforcement body to support the bill. Its backing adds a new public safety angle to the debate.

The endorsement includes support for provisions tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Those provisions seek clearer treatment for developers and non-custodial service providers. They also aim to separate software activity from financial custody.

That distinction matters because many blockchain services do not hold customer funds. Clearer rules could protect developers from broad compliance burdens. At the same time, lawmakers still want safeguards against fraud and illicit finance.

The endorsement may help supporters answer concerns about enforcement gaps. It also gives the bill a broader coalition beyond crypto companies. Therefore, the final text could draw attention from both policy and security groups.

The next stage will depend on Senate procedure and party talks. If leaders secure enough votes, the bill could move toward floor action after recess. If talks stall, the timeline may again move deeper into July.

Michael Saylor sat down with UK television news station Channel 4 to defend his company’s deca-billion dollar BTC bet.

He ended the interview by telling reporter Helia Ebrahimi she was “being offensive,” invoking “the tooth fairy,” and ultimately rage-quitting, saying, “OK, we’re done.” 

The segment questioned the billionaire’s views about a long-term decline in the price of BTC. It also allowed Saylor to reiterate his combative tone that earned a previous viral trend on Danny Knowles’ widely popular What Bitcoin Did podcast.

In that January interview, Saylor clapped back at Knowles, claiming “just an ignorant, offensive statement on your part” after Knowles asked why Strategy and other BTC treasury companies didn’t focus on generating cash flow from business operations.

Saylor, the man with the most to lose in these scenarios, refused to sit through the barrage of questions.

The timing of Channel 4 airing the interview, which contained clips it filmed across the year including at the Las Vegas Bitcoin Conference in May 2026, was certainly unkind.

Indeed, BTC currently trades around $61,937, down 42% over the past year and 50% below its 52-week high. That roughly matches the loss Channel 4 cited in its own caption, which earned hundreds of thousands of views via cross-posts and soon became a trending topic on X.

Worse, Strategy’s common stock has now lost 75% of its value over the past 12 months.

Europe’s financial watchdog is warning that many prediction market “event contracts” may already be subject to existing binary options rules, regardless of how they are described or marketed. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) says companies cannot sidestep retail investor protections simply by rebranding certain derivatives-like payouts as “event contracts.”

At the same time, the United States is witnessing its own escalation: state gaming regulators and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are fighting over whether prediction markets should be treated as gambling or federally regulated derivatives. Together, the two stories underline a central fault line for the sector—what matters legally is the contract’s structure, not its branding.

Key takeaways

• ESMA says event contracts can fall under binary options restrictions based on their characteristics, especially binary outcomes and fixed payouts.
• Even if retail investors are excluded, ESMA warns that offering qualifying event contracts to professional or institutional clients may still require MiFID II authorization.
• ESMA notes the reminder is not new regulation, but a response to increased offerings as prediction markets grow.
• In the U.S., state actions against platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket continue alongside the CFTC’s position that it has “exclusive jurisdiction” over event contracts.
• Litigation in multiple jurisdictions has intensified speculation that the dispute could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court.

ESMA’s reminder: “event contracts” can still be binary options

In a public statement released on Friday, ESMA reminded firms that contracts meeting the definition of financial instruments are already prohibited from being marketed, distributed, or sold to retail investors under national measures implementing ESMA’s 2018 binary options restrictions.

The regulator emphasized that the legal assessment hinges on the contract’s features rather than on marketing language. In particular, ESMA highlighted that event contracts with binary outcomes and fixed payouts are likely to qualify as financial instruments subject to the restrictions.

ESMA also focused on authorization requirements for firms selling into more sophisticated client categories. According to the statement, providing qualifying event contracts to professional or institutional clients still requires authorization under MiFID II, even if retail investors are not directly targeted.

ESMA framed its intervention as enforcement clarity rather than policy change. The regulator said it issued the reminder after observing more event contract offerings and rapid growth in prediction markets, noting that qualifying binary options have been under national restrictions across the EU since 2018.

For readers and market participants, the key implication is that the industry’s current naming conventions may not provide regulatory shelter. ESMA’s approach suggests that product designers and legal teams must evaluate payout mechanics and outcome structures early—before launching—because regulators may treat certain prediction constructs as financial instruments from the outset.

ESMA’s public statement on the application of national binary options measures to event contracts

What ESMA’s approach could mean for European platforms

While ESMA did not claim to introduce new restrictions, the message still carries practical consequences for platforms operating in or distributing into EU markets. ESMA’s insistence on contract-based assessment—binary outcomes and fixed payouts—creates a straightforward but unforgiving compliance test for many prediction-market formats.

In practice, this means firms may face pressure to restructure offerings that resemble fixed-payoff binary options. Alternatively, companies may need to ensure they remain within the boundaries of allowed products and client categories, including meeting MiFID II authorization requirements where applicable.

ESMA also appears to be pushing back against a common industry tactic: presenting payouts as “event-based” rather than as option-like financial instruments. The regulator’s reminder suggests that, from an enforcement standpoint, the distinction may not hold when the economic effect is functionally similar to a prohibited binary option for retail clients.

Builders and investors watching the space should treat ESMA’s statement as a signal about regulatory risk management. In a sector that often iterates quickly, compliance reviews that focus on contract architecture—not UI wording or product naming—may become a gating factor for expansion into regulated markets.

Meanwhile in the U.S., states and the CFTC keep clashing

Across the Atlantic, prediction markets are caught in a jurisdictional fight. The conflict pits state gaming regulators against the CFTC over whether event contracts should be treated as gambling under state law or as federally regulated derivatives under the CFTC’s oversight.

By March, action had already been taken by authorities in 11 states against platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket. Nevada became the first state to temporarily block Kalshi’s operations, while Arizona brought criminal charges alleging the company was running an illegal gambling business.

The following month, the CFTC argued for “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, saying Congress entrusted the agency with sole authority to regulate commodity derivatives markets, including event contracts. The agency also said it sued several states and filed court briefs supporting platforms such as Kalshi.

The litigation has continued to escalate. On June 30, a Massachusetts judge allowed state authorities to file an amended complaint against Kalshi in an ongoing case alleging the company’s sports-event contracts constitute illegal gambling under state law.

These battles have also driven calls for congressional clarification. Last month, the Indian Gaming Association and the American Gaming Association—joined by tribal and labor groups—urged lawmakers to amend the CLARITY Act to explicitly prohibit sports-related event contracts on prediction market platforms, arguing these products should fall outside the CFTC’s authority and remain governed by state gambling laws.

Legal experts cited in earlier coverage believe the deepening disagreement between federal and state regulators could ultimately be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court.

CFTC press release asserting its authority over prediction markets

Why both regions are converging on the same legal question

Despite differing regulatory frameworks, the EU and U.S. stories share a similar center of gravity: regulators are focusing on how event contracts work economically, not on the label operators choose. In Europe, ESMA points to binary outcomes and fixed payouts as key triggers for binary options treatment. In the U.S., the dispute turns on whether event contracts are properly categorized as gambling or as derivatives subject to federal oversight.

For operators, the stakes are immediate. In Europe, ESMA’s reminder highlights that retail-facing marketing can quickly trigger product intervention rules, while institutional sales may still require MiFID II authorization depending on contract characteristics. In the U.S., state enforcement and federal claims of exclusive jurisdiction have pushed prediction market firms into a patchwork of legal outcomes.

The practical takeaway for market participants is to treat legal categorization as product design input. The compliance and litigation burden can increase sharply when a platform’s core contract mechanics resemble the category regulators are already prepared to police.

As ESMA’s guidance circulates and U.S. court battles continue—possibly moving toward higher-level review—watch for two things: whether prediction platforms adjust contract structures to better fit regulatory definitions in the EU, and whether the U.S. dispute narrows around a definitive jurisdictional ruling rather than expanding across states and claims.

The crypto market is moving through a pivotal period of evolution. Long-term trends surrounding the XRP price prediction and the Ethereum price forecast 2030 continue to guide investor expectations. These projections rely heavily on Ripple’s utility in cross-border financial networks and Ethereum’s reigning dominance over smart contracts and Web3 systems. While both established assets serve as reliable benchmarks for digital currency growth, market participants are intentionally shifting their focus toward early-stage networks that offer significantly higher upside potential.

BlockDAG (BDAG) is rapidly dominating these discussions. It has solidly positioned itself in the best crypto to buy debate by launching a massive 100% World Cup Bonus. This strategic move allows participants to enter at just $0.00000066 per coin while securing up to 100% in extra tokens to maximize their accumulation power. This market momentum is growing even stronger following the launch of BlockDAG’s AI Large Language Model (LLM), an expansion that marks a giant leap forward for ecosystem intelligence, scalability, and network adoption.

Adoption Trends Drive Long-Term XRP Price Predictions

Ripple’s expanding role in cross-border payments and international financial systems heavily dictates the current XRP price prediction narrative. Engineers designed XRP specifically to settle fast, low-cost international transactions in just a few seconds. This high-speed utility makes it an incredibly relevant asset for global remittance and institutional payment corridors.

Because of these variables, long-term market projections for XRP vary significantly. Conservative analysts suggest that moderate real-world adoption will likely place the asset’s long-term valuation somewhere between $1 and $5.

On the other hand, more optimistic outlooks push the XRP price prediction up to $10 or even higher. Achieving these higher price levels depends heavily on clearer global regulatory frameworks and deeper integration into institutional banking systems. Ultimately, the long-term future of XRP remains tied to liquidity demands and practical banking adoption.

Ethereum Price Forecast 2030 Reflects Network Evolution

The Ethereum price forecast 2030 depends entirely on the network’s established role as the world’s leading smart contract platform. It serves as the primary backbone for decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and decentralized applications (dApps). Because its ecosystem hosts the majority of decentralized protocols, Ethereum benefits from continuous network activity and high developer engagement.

Long-term valuation models show that the Ethereum price forecast 2030 sits comfortably between $8,000 and $20,000. Reaching these targets requires steady institutional participation, rising global adoption, and successful network upgrades.

These ongoing technical upgrades are designed to increase transaction throughput and lower gas fees during peak congestion periods. As blockchain technology integrates into mainstream industries, Ethereum’s capability to maintain a reliable, scalable infrastructure will dictate its long-term financial position.

BlockDAG’s World Cup Bonus Boosts Token Accumulation Power

BlockDAG is capturing widespread attention as it rolls out advanced features and expanding utility. This rapid growth strengthens its reputation as the best crypto to buy for individuals targeting early network momentum. The primary catalyst driving this market interest is the limited-time 100% World Cup Bonus. This promotional structure dramatically boosts coin accumulation by granting buyers an extra 50% to 100% in BDAG tokens, successfully doubling their initial positions at activation.

With a current entry price of $0.00000066 and an anticipated buyback benchmark set at $0.03, BlockDAG presents a wide valuation gap. This difference underscores the substantial upside potential available as the ecosystem matures and market demand scales upward.

Activating this time-sensitive World Cup Bonus provides an immediate advantage by increasing a user’s total token holdings from the very beginning. This allows participants to gain deeper exposure to the network’s growth early on, rather than relying solely on future market price action.

Furthermore, the introduction of BlockDAG’s AI LLM represents a major technological milestone. This AI integration will improve overall ecosystem intelligence, optimize user interactions, and boost application scalability. It will also maximize operational efficiency and foster highly adaptive network use cases. Backed by a reported $500 million valuation increase, this technological leap reflects strong market confidence in BlockDAG’s long-term scaling capacity.

Key Insights

The crypto landscape continues to adjust around the utility-driven XRP price prediction and the institutional Ethereum price forecast 2030. XRP maintains its focus on cross-border payment efficiency, while Ethereum relies on its massive smart contract ecosystem. Both legacy assets move within long-term adoption cycles that depend heavily on regulatory progress and institutional capital.

However, market capital is flowing toward newer ecosystems that offer faster development cycles and powerful near-term catalysts. BlockDAG is leading this shift with its 100% World Cup Bonus, offering an entry reference of $0.00000066 paired with a $0.03 buyback framework. Supported by an expanding AI LLM and rapid ecosystem development, BlockDAG is solidifying its place as the best crypto to buy for those seeking maximum upside.

Presale: https://purchase.blockdag.network

Website: https://blockdag.network

Telegram: https://t.me/blockDAGnetworkOfficial

Discord: https://discord.gg/Q7BxghMVyu

Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.

Bitcoin has printed another set of on-chain “bear-market bottom” signals this month, with analysts pointing to a metric last seen near the bottom of the previous cycle in November 2022. The update centers on how much of the BTC supply is moving in profit versus loss—an approach often used to gauge whether sellers are being exhausted.

In a Friday analysis, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio has returned to its earlier buy-trigger behavior for the first time in nearly four years. While the model’s signal is bullish in the short-term, Adler emphasized that it does not automatically confirm a macro bottom, and that key “supply in loss” conditions still need to evolve.

Key takeaways

• Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio has crossed back above its buy threshold after spending time in deeply negative territory, printing buy signals in late June and early July.
• The model’s last comparable “buy trigger” appeared in November 2022, widely viewed as a bottoming period for the prior bear market.
• Confirmation would require the ratio to hold above zero alongside rising price; a return to negative territory without price support would weaken the case.
• Analysts say seller exhaustion alone isn’t enough—demand must follow to turn bottoming signals into a durable recovery.

A profit-and-loss metric returns to “buy trigger” territory

Adler’s Friday post ties Bitcoin’s current positioning to the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio, which tracks the proportion of Bitcoin held in UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) that last moved in profit versus loss. According to Adler, the ratio dropped into deeply negative territory and then recovered above the model’s signal level during a rebound, causing the framework to issue buy calls across “several sessions” in late June and early July.

Crucially, Adler framed this as a notable similarity to the end stages of the prior bear cycle, writing that it is the first buy trigger since November 2022, when analysts previously identified a bottom. That makes this more than a random dip-and-rebound—at least within the parameters of the CryptoQuant model—because the prior buy signal occurred near a cyclical low.

Adler also stressed that UTXO-based supply ratio cues are typically observed “near cyclical lows,” not necessarily as proof that a full macro bottom has already been reached. In other words, the signal may indicate conditions approaching a turning point, but it still requires additional confirmation from price behavior and from how much BTC remains locked in loss.

Why the signal isn’t a full “bottom confirmed” yet

The core of Adler’s caution is that the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio is only one leg of the bottoming picture. He pointed to a specific confirmation condition: the ratio should hold above zero while price rises. In contrast, he described a negative scenario where the ratio slips back into negative territory without supportive price action—an outcome that would suggest the market has not yet cleared enough selling pressure.

Adler further argued that one “missing piece” is the degree to which supply is still being held at a loss. He noted that current levels have not yet reached the extremes seen during earlier bear markets, implying that while selling pressure may be easing, it may not have fully run its course.

He also offered a timing-oriented expectation based on another on-chain measure: Adler forecast that the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of supply in loss should reach the model’s bear-market reversal target within two months. Until that happens, Adler suggested it is more accurate to view capitulation as a process rather than a completed event.

Other analysts flag “exhaustion,” but demand is still required

Adler’s view aligns with a broader theme in on-chain analysis: many metrics can point to seller exhaustion, but recovery usually depends on whether demand renews strongly enough to absorb remaining supply.

Another CryptoQuant contributor, Darkfost, also discussed potential inflection signals this week through the UTXO Supply framework. In a Wednesday Quicktake post, Darkfost noted that because the metric depends on the profit and loss state of UTXOs, it can signal during either rapid sell-offs or rapid price increases. Still, he said that on cyclicality, it would not be inconsistent to think that the end of this bear market could be approaching.

Darkfost’s key message was that the UTXO supply dynamics do not guarantee an immediate reversal. As he put it, the signals “won’t stop BTC from going lower,” but the market now has “several signals pointing to seller exhaustion.” He then identified the next step as a renewal of demand, warning that this phase could take time.

This distinction matters for investors and traders because it helps set expectations: a buy-trigger on a profit-and-loss ratio can indicate improving conditions, but it does not remove volatility risk if price continues to undercut support or if demand fails to materialize.

What to watch as the market tests for a floor

The immediate question for Bitcoin bulls is whether the on-chain signals translate into sustained market support. Adler’s framework makes that practical: readers should watch whether the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio can maintain itself above zero and whether that improvement coincides with rising price, rather than quickly reverting to negative territory.

Equally important is progress on the “supply in loss” condition. Adler’s expectation that the 90-day SMA of supply in loss could reach a reversal target within about two months suggests that the market may need additional time for losses to wash out more completely—meaning this cycle’s bottoming could remain uneven rather than instantaneous.

Finally, while some market narratives anticipate a bear-market bottom forming later in the year, earlier coverage cited in the discussion pointed to expectations that favor a bottom in Q3 or later. With on-chain exhaustion signals emerging now, the next phase hinges on whether demand can catch up—turning a sell-pressure easing into a durable recovery.

For now, the most actionable takeaway is to monitor whether the current “buy trigger” behavior can persist and whether supply held at a loss continues to trend toward reversal conditions—because that combination is what analysts say would strengthen the case that a true cyclical transition is underway.

Bitcoin extended its advance into the US holiday weekend, setting fresh July highs as buyers pressed through a key technical level near the 200-week moving average. The move also played out alongside strength in global equities, as expectations for Federal Reserve action appeared to soften after weaker US jobs data.

On TradingView, BTC/USD reached $62,295 on Bitstamp—its highest level since June 24—highlighting renewed focus on whether the latest breakout can be sustained through the next weekly close.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin pushed to $62,295 on Bitstamp, marking a fresh July high and the strongest print since June 24.
• Traders are watching the 200-week simple moving average, cited around $62,652, as a pivotal level for weekly structure.
• Price action is approaching a broader “strong resistance area” near $62,000–$62,500.
• Weak US nonfarm payrolls helped lift risk assets, while CME Group’s FedWatch tool pointed to roughly even odds of a September pause versus a hike.

BTC tests a major technical line near the 200-week SMA

The latest rally has brought Bitcoin back to levels closely tracked by chart analysts. According to TradingView data referenced by market observers, BTC/USD hit $62,295 on Bitstamp, extending gains during the Independence Day holiday period when US markets were closed.

For many traders, the near-term question is not simply whether Bitcoin can trade higher, but whether it can hold its momentum around the 200-week moving average. One commonly cited reference point comes from Daan Crypto Trades, who highlighted that the 200-week simple moving average is currently around $62,652, and that it may be important for the weekly candle close.

“It is key for BTC now to hold this breakout and maintain its low timeframe bullish market structure,” Daan Crypto Trades said, calling the current trading zone “important.”

Separately, Exitpump pointed to a zone rather than a single number, warning followers to keep an eye on $62,000–$62,500 as a “strong resistance area.” The implication for traders is that a move into this band could trigger either consolidation or renewed bids—depending on how Bitcoin reacts as the chart approaches the 200-week line.

The current dynamic also fits the way some traders describe order flow during breakouts. Exitpump referenced “controlled slow buying” on exchanges, suggesting demand is present but not necessarily in a single aggressive surge. If that pattern continues, it may support the idea of gradual progress; if it stops, resistance in the same region could slow the move.

Risk-on tone as equities hit new records

Bitcoin’s strength has coincided with a broadly constructive macro backdrop. With US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, global equities were still moving higher; the Dow Jones closed at record highs the previous day, and a report cited by The Kobeissi Letter described global market capitalization reaching all-time highs as well.

In a post on X, The Kobeissi Letter wrote: “Global equities are in the midst of one of the most powerful rallies in history.” That kind of parallel move matters for crypto traders because it can influence how investors position across risk assets, especially when interest-rate expectations are in flux.

While Bitcoin is not a direct proxy for stocks, the correlation often becomes more visible when markets treat macro news as broadly supportive for risk appetite. In that setting, technical levels can attract attention faster—particularly when liquidity and sentiment align.

Fed rate pressure eases as jobs data cools expectations

Beyond the charts, the macro driver most directly referenced in the coverage is the impact of recent US labor market data. Earlier coverage linked Bitcoin’s rebound to weak nonfarm payrolls figures, and Mosaic Asset Company argued that the “knee-jerk” response from investors was to lift stock index futures—signaling a regime where weaker economic news supports risk assets by easing rate outlook concerns.

For crypto, the direction of Federal Reserve policy expectations remains one of the key variables. Rate hikes can weigh on liquidity and risk appetite, while expectations of a pause—or slower tightening—tend to improve the backdrop for speculative assets.

To quantify that shifting expectation, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed roughly equal odds of a pause or hike at the Fed’s September meeting. The tool also indicated that rates are expected to remain at current levels until that point, leaving September as the next major event for traders to anchor their positioning.

Mosaic’s analysis characterized the payrolls release as closer to a “Goldilocks” outcome—neither weak enough to intensify recession fears nor strong enough to accelerate expectations for additional rate hikes. The central takeaway is that the jobs data may not have changed the overall direction of the policy debate, but it has helped reduce the urgency of the most hawkish interpretation.

That balance can be important for Bitcoin because it supports a middle ground: neither a sharp risk-off shock nor a fully risk-on blowout. Instead, it can create the conditions for measured advances toward technical targets—exactly the type of behavior traders described when they discussed gradual buying and respect for nearby resistance.

What to watch next around the resistance band

Bitcoin is currently pressing into a region traders describe as both a resistance zone and a potential pivot tied to the 200-week moving average. The next meaningful signals will likely come from whether BTC can hold above the $62,000–$62,500 area and, crucially, how it behaves as the weekly candle approaches the 200-week SMA near $62,652.

With the FedWatch probabilities pointing to an evenly split September outcome, markets may remain sensitive to fresh US data releases and incremental shifts in rate expectations—so traders should monitor both technical follow-through and any new developments that could tilt the rate outlook back toward hikes or further toward a pause.

US President Donald Trump has responded to criticism of his 2025 financial disclosures, showing that he earned $1.4 billion in income from crypto-related ventures while in office.

In a Thursday interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernen, Trump said that there was “nothing illegal” and “nothing wrong” with profiting from his crypto investments as president. He claimed that other people were responsible for his investments and he didn’t “even know who they are,” not directly answering questions about perceived conflicts of interest as president.

Donald Trump (left) and Joe Kernen (right). Source: CNBC

Trump’s comments followed the release of his 2025 financial disclosure report by the US Office of Government Ethics, showing that he took in more than $2 billion from his businesses and investments, about $1.4 billion of which was connected to crypto projects like his memecoin and family’s platform World Liberty Financial. Many advocacy organizations have characterized the investments as a “grift” allowing the president to influence related legislation like the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.

Following his first term as US president, Trump called Bitcoin (BTC) a “scam.” However, in the lead-up to the 2024 election, he began cozying up to many high-profile figures in the crypto industry, including Gemini co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and executives at mining companies and exchanges. He has since launched his own memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), in addition to his family’s involvement in World Liberty and American Bitcoin.

Related: Donald Trump has 10 days to decide on housing bill with CBDC ban

Of the $1.4 billion tied to crypto, Trump disclosed that his memecoin generated about $636 million, World Liberty sales about $588 million and $197 million from equity in a stablecoin venture.

“Donald is once again pushing the envelope and nobody, nobody is putting the brakes on it,” Mary Trump, the president’s niece, said in a Friday interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper. “At the end of the day, because of his abuse of the presidential pardon power, a lot of people are likely to get away with a lot of financial crimes that have done real harm to people that have invested in Donald’s businesses because they believed in him and what he was selling.”

Crypto industry bets big on 2026 US elections

After digital asset companies spent a reported $170 million toward supporting whom they considered “pro-crypto” candidates to Congress in 2024, political action committees (PACs) and organizations appear to have adopted the same playbook for 2026.

According to the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, companies and figures tied to the crypto industry had contributed $189 million toward this year’s election cycle as of June. The contributions made up the bulk of the $294 million from the crypto, AI, Big Tech and online betting companies spent so far to support or oppose politicians.

Trump’s term ends in January 2029, but all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 35 in the Senate are up for grabs in the 2026 races.

Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves