Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has shown signs that selling pressure may be fading, though analysts caution that a durable bottom is far from guaranteed. In recent sessions, the asset has hovered around key technical levels, with the 20-day moving average offering a critical backdrop near $68,500 and volatility compressing as traders digest macro headlines. While one market update noted that BTC did not accelerate lower on risk-off news, the broader bear-market narrative remains intact for many observers, keeping upside exposure tactical rather than structural.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin appears to have shifted tactically rather than signaling a structural reversal, with near-term momentum stabilizing but persistent bearish conditions.
• The price has regained the vicinity of the 20-day moving average around $68,500, and Bollinger Bands are narrowing, potentially setting the stage for a defined trading range rather than a fresh down leg.
• BTC touched just above $70,000 in late trading on Coinbase but retraced to roughly $68,400, indicating continued volatility and intra-session shifts.
• The $62,500 level has held on three tests, reinforcing it as meaningful support amid a broader bear-market context.
• Bullish divergences are emerging in momentum indicators like RSI and stochastic, hinting at a possible stabilization even if the larger trend remains down.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Positive — a price bounce driven by crowd-long liquidations in derivatives and easing selling pressure.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. With no confirmed trend change, tactical exposure is reasonable while monitoring for a clear breakout or breakdown.

Market context: The price action unfolds against a backdrop of narrowing volatility, strengthening ETF-related flows, and evolving macro headlines that influence risk appetite across crypto markets. As liquidity conditions remain nuanced, traders are weighing whether recent moves represent a genuine shift in momentum or a temporary pause within a continuing bear market.

Why it matters

The latest price dynamics matter because they illuminate how traders are positioning around a potential bottom without assuming a durable reversal. The evidence for a tactical shift—such as stabilizing momentum indicators and a guarded recovery after tests of critical support—could influence risk management decisions for both hedge funds and retail participants. Yet the overarching framework remains cautious: many analysts still classify Bitcoin as being in a bear-market regime, meaning that any bullish exposure should be limited in scope and time-bound unless a clear directional breakout occurs.

From a market mechanics perspective, several indicators align to suggest a pause rather than a pivot. Volatility appears to be compressing, ETF flows have shown resilience, and the once-widening Coinbase discount has faded, all of which are inconsistent with a market rushing into a fresh leg lower. Still, analysts caution that these are characteristics of consolidation, not confirmation of a new uptrend. The resilience around the $62,500 level—tested multiple times—provides a potential platform for range-bound activity or a gradual accumulation phase, should buyers step in at these levels with sustained interest.

Additionally, the narrative around derivatives markets cannot be ignored. Recent observations point to deeply negative funding rates as a key driver of a short-term rebound, where crowded short positions were forced to unwind as price found support. While that dynamic can produce sharp, short-lived bounces, it does not by itself constitute a lasting reversal or a trigger for sustained upward price action. The absence of durable macro catalysts—such as clear liquidity inflows or institutional commitments—underscores why traders remain cautious about calling a new bull leg.

What to watch next

• Observe BTC’s behavior around the 62,500 support level over the coming sessions to see if buyers maintain conviction or if bears pressure the price lower again.
• Monitor momentum indicators (RSI, stochastic) for continued bullish divergences or a retreat back into bearish territory.
• Track ETF flow data and any shifts in the Coinbase-related pricing discounts as signals of broader liquidity and investor sentiment shifts.
• Watch for changes in funding rates in derivatives markets; a sustained shift back to positive funding could alter the risk-reward dynamic for long positions.
• Keep an eye on macro catalysts that could reintroduce risk-off pressures or, conversely, catalyze renewed risk appetite in crypto assets.

Sources & verification

• 10x Research market update: Is the Bitcoin correction over, bottom formed, or is this a bear-market trap? ( https://update.10xresearch.com/p/is-the-bitcoin-correction-over-has-the-bottom-formed-or-is-this-a-bear-market-trap )
• Bitcoin price context and market observations referenced in BTC price coverage (Cointelegraph article on price movements and bear-market context): https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-holders-show-zero-panic-as-btc-hits-dollar70k-amid-middle-east-tensions
• TradingView BTCUSD price data (Coinbase exchange view): https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=COINBASE
• ETF flows and related analysis referenced in coverage of how ETF activity affects Bitcoin price dynamics: https://cointelegraph.com/news/are-bitcoin-etfs-quietly-accumulating-or-just-not-selling-the-flow-data-that-matters
• Derivatives funding rate context and potential short-squeeze signals: https://cointelegraph.com/news/negative-bitcoin-funding-rate-may-signal-pending-short-squeeze-above-dollar70k

Bitcoin price action: tests of support and momentum signals

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been navigating a delicate balance between tactical resilience and structural risk. After a period in which selling pressure appeared to intensify alongside macro headwinds, the market is displaying a constellation of signals that traders read as a potential shift in near-term dynamics without confirming a new long-term trend. The most cited technical talking points center on the interaction with the 20-day moving average, the narrowing of volatility bands, and the resilience of a critical support zone around $62,500.

The 20-day moving average has re-emerged as a yardstick for assessing near-term momentum, with BTC hovering near that level at the time of writing. A tightening of Bollinger Bands reinforces the notion that price action may be compressing into a more defined range, which often precedes a breakout or a sustained consolidation. In practical terms, a break above the upper band could portend a bullish continuation, while a break below the lower band would reaffirm downside risk in a bear-market context. These technical nuances are amplified by the price’s behavior around the $70,000 mark in late sessions, where a brief ascent gave way to a retracement as traders reassessed risk and liquidity conditions.

From a supply-demand perspective, the $62,500 threshold has proven notable. It withstood tests on three separate occasions, suggesting authentic support that buyers have targeted in a market characterized by fragile liquidity. The price’s ability to rebound from the $63,000s demonstrates that demand exists at specific price points, even as overall sentiment remains cautious. In tandem, momentum indicators—specifically RSI and stochastic—have started to exhibit bullish divergences, a pattern that traders often interpret as an early harbinger of stabilizing momentum. While these signals are encouraging at the margin, they are not a substitute for a decisive trend shift, especially as macro catalysts remain uncertain.

Beyond the price action, market mechanics play a central role in interpreting the recent bounce. Negative funding rates in derivatives markets have contributed to a squeeze dynamic, where crowded short positions were unwound as price rose from the mid-$60,000s. This type of price activity is not inherently indicative of a durable reversal; it reflects the intricacies of leverage and risk parity in a market that remains susceptible to rapid shifts. The absence of broad, structural inflows—particularly from institutional buyers—keeps the door open for renewed pressure should liquidity conditions deteriorate or if macro risk sentiment deteriorates further.

Looking ahead, the market will be watching for sustained price action that can convert tactical gains into a more persistent trend. Traders will evaluate whether the momentum divergences sustain themselves, whether ETF flow dynamics continue to provide relief to selling pressure, and whether any macro event can catalyze a more pronounced shift in risk appetite. In the meantime, market participants are likely to treat any move that reclaims or holds above the $68,000–$70,000 zone as a potential cue for cautious optimism, while remaining mindful of the longer-term bear-market framework that many analysts still cite as the prevailing context.

The decline in altcoin market capitalization has started to slow in the first week of March despite numerous negative geopolitical developments. In addition, the newly released PMI index is reviving hopes that altcoins may recover soon.

However, any recovery could face significant challenges as the proportion of altcoins trading near their all-time lows continues to rise.

Why Could the PMI Report Influence Capital Flows into the Altcoin Market?

A positive macroeconomic signal has just emerged, bringing renewed optimism. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained above the 50 threshold for two consecutive months.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI reflects survey results from purchasing managers about their business conditions. It helps assess whether the US manufacturing sector is expanding or contracting.

Specifically, the February 2026 PMI reached 52.4. Although it came in slightly lower than January’s 52.6, it still exceeded the forecast of 51.8.

Historical data shows that when the ISM PMI rises above 50—indicating economic expansion—it often coincides with strong rallies in Bitcoin and altcoins.

Analyst Ash Crypto explained that when PMI exceeds 50, the US economy enters an expansion phase. Corporate profits increase. Household income improves.

Consumer spending accelerates. Investor risk appetite strengthens.

“If ISM stays above 50 for a few more months, the crypto winter could be over soon,” Ash Crypto stated.

Analysts expect that the ISM Manufacturing PMI remaining above 50 for two consecutive months signals the beginning of a new US business cycle. This environment creates favorable conditions for capital to flow into high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Analyst Matthew Hyland combined PMI data with historical models and indicated that altcoin dominance has just confirmed a breakout signal.

The rising PMI, together with the recovery of the monthly MACD-H indicator and the breakout from a falling wedge pattern in altcoin dominance, suggests a potential altcoin season scenario in 2026.

38% of Altcoins Are Trading Near All-Time Lows

A recent report by CryptoQuant analysts reflects a still-bleak outlook for altcoins.

Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, stated that approximately 38% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows. This marks the lowest level in the current cycle and appears even worse than the period immediately following the collapse of FTX.

“This chart perfectly illustrates the current situation for altcoins. Investors remain cautious and continue to lose interest in altcoins,” Darkfost explained.

However, he added that severely deteriorating conditions can also create an environment where opportunities begin to emerge.

A recent report by BeInCrypto highlighted additional signals in March that suggest altcoins could recover. However, the excessive number of altcoins combined with tight liquidity conditions may limit the extent of any rebound.

Analysts argue that geopolitical shocks have failed to invalidate the existing bullish short-term and bearish mid-term outlooks.

Bitcoin’s reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend was limited, even as traditional markets reacted more sharply. BTC slipped to around $65,500 on Monday after trading in a volatile range between roughly $63,000 and $68,000, as markets responded to rising US-Iran tensions and reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike.

Despite the intense, volatile backdrop, market commentators say that the conflict has not changed Bitcoin’s trajectory.

High Risk Zone

In a post on X, Mr. Wall Street stated that “nothing changed with the new war.” He said that he does not believe the cycle bottom is in at $60,000. According to him, the cycle bottom will form later this year, around $45,000, but only after Bitcoin first rallies to the $80,000-$85,000 range.

The analyst’s outlook is bullish in the short term, bearish in the mid-term. This indicates that while geopolitical shocks may create volatility, he does not believe they invalidate the expectation of a near-term pump followed by a deeper corrective phase. Another prominent crypto market commentator, Doctor Profit, also maintained that the war does not alter his broader bearish positioning.

He wrote that Bitcoin “remains in an absolute high risk zone” and that the market has not bottomed yet.

“The war changes nothing in my bearish outlook for Crypto and Stocks.”

He also added that he remains fully bearish and that his “big short” has remained open since September. Both analysts, despite differing on short-term direction, emphasized that the geopolitical escalation has not fundamentally changed their pre-existing market theses.

US-Iran Conflict Already Priced In?

Trader CrypNuevo said the market had already been pricing in the US-Iran conflict throughout the previous week. He went on to explain that markets cannot fall much further because the event was largely anticipated, but pointed to uncertainty around the length of the war and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. According to them, stock futures, which Bitcoin tends to follow, would probably open negatively, and could potentially recover as soon as de-escalation talks emerge.

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They said a prolonged conflict is unlikely, citing concerns that extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push oil prices higher and spike US CPI inflation, something they do not expect to occur. The strategy is to wait for Monday’s stock market reaction. As such, if there is a sharp sell-off, they would long Bitcoin around $61,000-$60,000 ahead of de-escalation news. On the other hand, if there is only a slight decline, sideways movement, or a pump, they would delay entering a long position until later in the week.

​The price of Bitcoin is close to its bottom, according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, pointing to the winding down of the four-year cycle.

Speaking with CNBC on Monday, van Eck said his firm expects Bitcoin (BTC) to gradually start picking up this year, arguing that the four-year halving cycle has been the primary driver of price over the past few months, as opposed to anything related to BTC’s fundamentals.

“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by […] limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle where the Bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of Bitcoin every four years,” he said, adding:

“There’s been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom.”

The four-year crypto cycle has been a hot topic of debate overt he last year, with crypto analysts split over whether the chart pattern is still applicable today given the level of institutional adoption and crypto market maturity.

Arguments against the cycle include macro demand from exchange-traded funds, the weakening USD, and positive regulatory developments.

Jan van Eck’s comments come as the price of BTC is up 2.6% over the past 24 hours and is trading at $68,400 at the time of writing, and 7.6% over the past seven days, according to data from CoinGecko.

Related: Bitcoin slide slowing, but bear market still in play: Analysts

The crypto pump has coincided with growing geopolitical tensions, after the United States and Israel initiated air strikes on Iran, which has since prompted Iran to launch strikes in response against Israel.

Van Eck speculated that Bitcoin’s recent recovery may be partly sparked by the conflict, with crypto payment rails serving as a key tool to move funds outside of banks in times of economic uncertainty.  

“When one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you gonna move money around? And I do think it’s a very, very crypto-friendly region, UAE, Dubai, everything,” he said, adding:  

“So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors, we would wanna use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don’t control.”

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