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Bitcoin price outlook as CLARITY Act approval odds hit 90%

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Bitcoin price outlook as CLARITY Act approval odds hit 90% - 1

Bitcoin traded near $67,000 on Thursday, steadying after a session that coincided with sharp swings in prediction market odds for the CLARITY Act.

Summary

  • Bitcoin traded near $67,000 as Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act swung from 90% to 55%, highlighting regulatory uncertainty.
  • The CLARITY Act aims to define oversight between the SEC and CFTC, potentially reducing ambiguity and boosting institutional confidence in crypto markets.
  • Technically, BTC is consolidating between $65,000 and $70,000, with weakening bearish momentum but key resistance overhead at $70,000–$75,000.

On Polymarket, approval odds for the CLARITY Act briefly surged to 90% earlier in the day before sharply retracing to around 55% at press time, reflecting uncertainty around the bill’s path forward.

Bitcoin price outlook as CLARITY Act approval odds hit 90% - 1

The CLARITY Act is a proposed U.S. crypto market structure bill designed to define regulatory oversight between the SEC and CFTC. The legislation aims to provide clearer rules for digital assets, token classification, and exchange compliance.

If passed, it could reduce regulatory ambiguity, encourage institutional participation, and improve long-term capital inflows into the crypto sector.

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Bitcoin price outlook: Momentum stabilizing after sharp drop

On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains in a broader short-term downtrend following its sharp selloff from the mid-$90,000 region earlier this year. Price action shows a series of lower highs and lower lows before stabilizing around the mid-$60,000 range.

Bitcoin price outlook as CLARITY Act approval odds hit 90% - 2
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: Crypto.News

The recent large red candle near $72,000 marked a capitulation-style move, with price briefly dipping toward the low-$60,000s before rebounding. Since then, BTC has been consolidating between roughly $65,000 and $70,000.

The Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains in negative territory but is printing rising green bars, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening. Meanwhile, the Balance of Power (0.66) has turned positive, indicating buyers are attempting to regain short-term control.

Immediate resistance sits near $70,000, followed by a stronger ceiling around $75,000, where prior breakdown occurred. On the downside, key support lies at $65,000, with a deeper level near $60,000 if selling resumes.

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For now, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating. A decisive break above $70,000 could open the door for recovery, while failure to hold $65,000 may invite renewed downside pressure.

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Crypto World

Crypto Derivatives Hit $18.6T In Q1 2026: CoinGlass

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Crypto Derivatives Hit $18.6T In Q1 2026: CoinGlass

Binance maintained its leading position in crypto derivatives trading in the first quarter of 2026, while decentralized exchange Hyperliquid broke into the top 10 venues by volume, according to CoinGlass.

Derivatives trading remained the dominant force in the crypto market in Q1 2026, totaling $18.6 trillion compared with $1.94 trillion in spot trading, according to a CoinGlass report on Friday.

The analysts said trading activity remained strong over the quarter, though liquidity and capital became even more concentrated at the top. “Q1 was not about euphoria. It was about recovery, concentration, and shifting market structure,” CoinGlass said.

The data shows how a small group of exchanges continue to dominate crypto derivatives, even as decentralized platforms begin to emerge as competitors.

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Binance handles $4.9 trillion in derivatives versus $640 billion in spot

Binance processed about $4.9 trillion in derivatives volume in Q1 2026, or roughly 35% of activity among the top 10 exchanges. In 2025, the exchange held about 29% of $85.7 trillion in total derivatives volume.

The exchange also dominated spot markets at a similar share, with Q1 volumes amounting to roughly $640 billion, or around 34% of total volumes among the top 10.

Source: CoinGlass

Binance’s dominance points to its resilience despite controversy during the quarter, after several crypto community members, including OKX founder and CEO Star Xu, alleged that it played a major role in the mass liquidation event of Oct. 10, 2025.

Related: Binance sues Wall Street Journal amid report of DOJ Iran probe

Binance repeatedly denied the claims, saying the crash was driven primarily by macroeconomic factors, market maker risk controls and network congestion.

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Hyperliquid enters top 10 as perpetual DEXs gain ground

Hyperliquid, a perpetual decentralized exchange, reached a key milestone in the first quarter of 2026, breaking into the top 10 derivatives exchanges by volume roughly three years after its launch.

The platform recorded about $492.7 billion in trading volume during the quarter, securing its place among the industry’s largest derivatives venues, including Binance, OKX, Bybit, Gate, BitGet, BingX, LBank, WhiteBIT and Coinbase.

Related: Wallet in Telegram launches perpetual futures trading with Lighter

The milestone comes after steady growth across previous quarters. In its 2025 report, CoinGlass said Hyperliquid nearly dominated the entire perp DEX sector, with its market share reaching up to 70% at times.

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Perp DEX activity also expanded rapidly in 2025, with volumes nearly tripling over the year and accounting for up to 90% of volumes across major derivatives exchanges.

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