More than $2.4 billion in crypto options are set to expire at 08:00 UTC today on Deribit, a positioning event that could inject fresh volatility into the market.

According to Deribit data, $2 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options and $404 million in Ethereum (ETH) options will roll off.

For Bitcoin, the put/call ratio stands at 0.59, signaling call-heavy positioning and a stronger upside skew. The max pain level is $70,000, slightly above current spot levels, suggesting price could gravitate toward that area into expiry.

Ethereum’s put/call ratio sits at 0.75, reflecting more balanced but still constructive positioning, with max pain at $2,050.

Large options expiries can trigger short-term volatility, especially with positioning skewed toward calls. With $2 billion in Bitcoin and over $400 million in Ethereum contracts expiring, dealer hedging around key strikes, notably $70,000 for BTC and $2,050 for ETH, could pin prices near those levels.

However, a decisive move beyond them may amplify momentum through gamma-driven flows, increasing the odds of a sharp breakout.

Crypto market prediction: Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin trades around $67,850 on the daily chart, attempting to stabilize after a sharp early-February sell-off that dragged price from the mid-$90,000s to a local low near $60,000. Since that flush, BTC has been consolidating between roughly $65,000 and $70,000.

Technically, price remains below the 50-day DEMA near $69,500, which now acts as immediate resistance. A sustained break above $69,500–$70,000 would open the door toward $72,000 and potentially the mid-$70,000 region.

On the downside, support sits around $65,000, followed by the psychological $60,000 level — the zone that previously attracted strong dip buying.

Momentum indicators show bearish pressure easing but not fully reversed. The Balance of Power histogram remains negative, though red bars are shrinking, signaling waning selling intensity. A decisive push toward the $70,000 max pain level could accelerate short-term flows tied to options hedging.

Ethereum (ETH) price prediction

Ethereum, meanwhile, trades near $1,958 after sliding from above $3,000 in January to a recent low around $1,900. The daily chart shows ETH attempting to form a base just below the $2,000 psychological level.

The RSI sits near 34, recovering from oversold territory but still below the neutral 50 mark, indicating momentum remains fragile.

Immediate resistance is clustered between $2,000 and $2,050, notably close to the max pain level. A break above that zone could trigger a squeeze toward $2,200. Support lies near $1,900, with a deeper floor around $1,800.

With positioning skewed toward calls, particularly in Bitcoin, traders will be watching whether price gravitates toward max pain levels or breaks decisively as contracts expire, potentially setting the tone for the next directional move.

Crypto markets have erased nearly $1 trillion in value over the past month, yet parts of the industry tied to infrastructure and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) are telling a different story. Tokenized Treasurys are expanding, venture firms are still raising capital and Bitcoin-focused companies are consolidating their footprints.

This week’s Crypto Biz looks at the widening gap between spot markets and capital formation — from Nakamoto’s $107 million acquisition spree to Dragonfly’s new $650 million fund, the continued rise of tokenized RWAs and why Paradigm says Bitcoin miners may have a growing role in stabilizing the power grid.

Nakamato to acquire two Bitcoin companies for $107 million

Bitcoin holding company Nakamoto has agreed to acquire BTC Inc and UTXO Management in a combined $107 million deal, expanding its footprint across Bitcoin media, events and financial services.

Under the terms of the agreement, investors in BTC Inc and UTXO will receive 363,589,819 shares of Nakamoto common stock. The shares are priced at $1.12 under a call option structure, which is well above Nakamoto’s current trading price of about $0.30.

The transaction brings Bitcoin Magazine and the annual Bitcoin Conference under Nakamoto’s umbrella, while adding UTXO’s asset management and advisory business to the company’s portfolio.

Dragonfly closes $650 million fund

Despite a broader shake-up in crypto venture capital, Dragonfly Capital has closed its fourth fund at $650 million, signaling continued institutional appetite for blockchain infrastructure plays.

The firm indicated it is increasingly focused on financial products built on blockchain rails, including payment systems, stablecoin networks, lending markets and tokenized real-world assets. The strategy reflects a wider pivot among investors toward revenue-generating infrastructure rather than speculative token launches.

“This is the biggest meta shift I can feel in my entire time in the industry,” said Dragonfly general partner Tom Schmidt, describing the transition toward onchain finance and tokenized capital markets.

Tokenized RWA market expands despite crypto downturn

While broader crypto markets remain under pressure, tokenized real-world assets continue to gain traction, highlighting steady demand for onchain yield products.

The total value of tokenized RWAs has climbed about 13.5% over the past 30 days, according to RWA.xyz data. Over the same period, the broader crypto market has lost about $1 trillion in value. Much of the RWA growth has been driven by tokenized US Treasurys and private credit, though tokenized stocks are also gaining traction. 

The divergence underscores how tokenized fixed-income products continue to attract capital even during periods of market stress, positioning RWAs as one of the more resilient segments of the digital asset economy.

Paradigm reiterates Bitcoin mining’s role in energy stabilization

Venture firm Paradigm is making the case that Bitcoin mining can serve as a flexible power load on the grid, potentially helping balance electricity demand at a time when local energy sources are being constrained by rapid AI data center development. 

In a recent report, Paradigm argued that Bitcoin miners are well-positioned to absorb excess generation during low-demand periods and scale back when the grid is strained. That flexibility, Paradigm suggests, could make mining a useful partner for utilities facing peak-load challenges.

The idea isn’t entirely new, but it’s getting renewed attention as pressure grows on power systems from both decarbonization goals and rising overall electricity use tied to AI. Whether miners can actually deliver that flexibility at scale will depend on contracts with grid operators and the economics of energy markets, two areas with many moving parts.

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