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Bitcoin Protected From Severe Crash Unless Saylor Sells, Says CryptoQuant CEO

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TLDR:

  • CryptoQuant CEO states Bitcoin won’t crash 70% unless MicroStrategy’s Saylor liquidates his holdings significantly. 
  • MicroStrategy holds $2.2 billion cash reserves with no short-term debt pressure forcing Bitcoin sales near $76K basis. 
  • Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has flatlined indicating no fresh capital inflows while early holders continue profit-taking. 
  • Current bear market likely to form wide sideways consolidation rather than sharp decline seen in previous cycles.

 

Bitcoin appears protected from severe 70% crashes characteristic of previous bear markets unless MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor liquidates his holdings, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

The analyst’s assessment challenges traditional cycle expectations while acknowledging persistent selling pressure in the current market environment.

The cryptocurrency faces downward momentum as fresh capital inflows have ceased, yet structural differences suggest this downturn may unfold differently than historical precedents.

Early holders continue distributing profits accumulated during the ETF-driven rally, but MicroStrategy’s position remains a critical stabilizing factor.

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CryptoQuant Analysis Points to Different Cycle Dynamics

Ki Young Ju emphasized that MicroStrategy’s involvement fundamentally alters this cycle’s potential outcomes. The company served as a major driver of Bitcoin’s rally toward $100,000, accumulating substantial holdings that now influence market structure.

In his analysis, the CryptoQuant CEO stated that “MSTR was a major driver of this rally. Unless Saylor significantly dumps his stack, we won’t see a -70% crash like previous cycles.

This observation reflects MicroStrategy’s unique position as a publicly-traded entity with long-term conviction rather than a speculative trader.

Traditional bear markets witnessed 70% declines when overleveraged entities faced forced liquidations and margin calls.

However, the analyst noted that such catastrophic drops require significant selling from major holders. The company’s holdings represent patient capital unlikely to flee during temporary price weakness. This dynamic provides a floor beneath the market that did not exist in earlier cycles.

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Despite this cushion, Ki Young Ju warned that selling pressure continues without clear signs of a bottom. He explained that “Bitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in. Realized Cap has flatlined, meaning no fresh capital.”

The analyst further noted that “when market cap falls in that environment, it’s not a bull market.” Early Bitcoin holders sitting on substantial unrealized gains have distributed their positions since early 2024, though institutional inflows previously absorbed this supply.

The analyst predicted this bear market will likely form a different pattern than previous cycles. He stated that “selling pressure is still ongoing, so the bottom isn’t clear yet, but this bear market will likely form a wide-ranging sideways consolidation.”

This forecast differs markedly from the 2018 and 2022 bear markets that featured severe drawdowns. Market participants should prepare for extended sideways price action instead of quick capitulation events that characterized previous cycles.

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MicroStrategy’s Balance Sheet Shields Against Forced Selling

Analyst Anıl provided additional context regarding MicroStrategy’s financial position and its implications for Bitcoin’s downside risk.

The company holds Bitcoin with an average cost basis around $76,000, close to current market prices. According to Anıl, “Michael Saylor (Strategy) faces no short-term debt pressure that would force selling Bitcoin bought at a $76K cost basis. All liabilities are long-term.” This structure eliminates the refinancing pressures that historically triggered forced liquidations.

The analyst characterized recent price action near MicroStrategy’s cost basis as tactical maneuvering by market participants. Anıl observed that “Bitcoin trading back near cost levels looks like an attempt to pressure Saylor — and it’s likely to be short-lived.”

This assessment suggests that current weakness represents temporary positioning rather than fundamental deterioration. The company maintains resilience through careful balance sheet management.

MicroStrategy’s financial strength extends beyond debt management to include substantial liquidity reserves. Anıl noted that “Strategy also holds $2.2B in cash reserves set aside for tough times.”

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These reserves provide the company with offensive capabilities rather than forcing defensive actions. The analyst added that he “wouldn’t be surprised to see Saylor start accumulating Bitcoin again around cost levels using that cash. Maybe this week, maybe next.”

This cash position fundamentally changes Bitcoin’s risk profile during downturns. The analyst’s expectations flip traditional bear market dynamics where large holders typically reduce exposure.

MicroStrategy’s structure eliminates the forced selling catalysts that triggered previous cycle collapses. The company operates without leverage constraints or margin requirements that plagued earlier institutional participants, supporting CryptoQuant’s thesis that severe crashes require Saylor’s active participation as a seller.

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Pi Network (PI) News Today: March 17

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Top Trending Cryptocurrencies


Explore all the latest and most important advancements across the Pi Network ecosystem.

The team behind the controversial crypto project Pi Network unveiled several important updates lately, while the community celebrated its symbolic Pi Day.

PI’s price had its glory moments, briefly climbing to a five-month peak, but then experienced a massive correction.

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The Latest Developments

March has been quite eventful for Pi Network. At the start of the month, the Core Team announced that the protocol v19.9 migration was successfully completed, while version 20.2 was scheduled for release around March 12. The official confirmation about the migration arrived with the Pi Day celebratory announcement.

Another major development was Kraken’s decision to allow trading services with Pi Network’s native cryptocurrency. This happened just a day before Pi Day – the community’s special date, celebrated because it matches the mathematical constant π (3.14), and which is logically held annually on March 14.

This year, the team marked the occasion by rolling out several ecosystem upgrades designed to boost utility, attract more developers, and strengthen the network’s overall infrastructure. Some of the improvements include new Mainnet capabilities for Pi App Studio, advancements that enable future smart contract functionality, KYC validator rewards, and more.

Most recently, Pi Network’s team disclosed that second migrations have started and “will continue with a gradual rollout, opening the door for Pioneers to bring additional PI to Mainnet and further participate in the ecosystem.” The post on X received mixed reactions: some users praised the move, whereas others questioned why the team had launched a second migration when the first one hadn’t been properly completed.

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PI Remains Trending

The numerous developments surrounding Pi Network led to significant volatility in PI. The protocol updates, the listing on Kraken, and the anticipation of Pi Day boosted the price to a five-month peak of almost $0.30. At one point, the asset’s market capitalization neared $3 billion, making PI the 36th-largest cryptocurrency.

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However, over the past few days, the price headed south just as rapidly in what appeared to be a classic “sell-the-news” moment. As of this writing, PI trades at around $0.18 (per CoinGecko’s data), representing a 9% daily decline and a 19% collapse over the week.

Despite the downtrend, the asset remains one of the most-searched digital assets. It is the fifth-most trending cryptocurrency on CoinGecko today, surpassing well-known names such as Bittensor (TAO), Ethereum (ETH), and Bitcoin (BTC).

Top Trending Cryptocurrencies
Top Trending Cryptocurrencies, Source: CoinGecko

What Lies Ahead?

In the following days, the daily token unlocks will exceed 15 million on a couple of occasions. Nonetheless, the end of March and the beginning of April are expected to be much calmer on that front, which could stabilize the price and slow down the recent pullback.

PI Token UnlocksPI Token Unlocks
PI Token Unlocks, Source: piscan.io

Moreover, PI’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 10, signaling oversold conditions that can sometimes precede a resurgence. The technical analysis tool ranges from 0 to 100, and conversely, anything above 70 is considered bearish territory and indicates that a short-term correction could be on the way.

PI RSIPI RSI
PI RSI, Source: RSI Hunter

 

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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VersaBank Adds FX to Tokenized Deposits for Cross-Border Payments

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VersaBank Adds FX to Tokenized Deposits for Cross-Border Payments

VersaBank, a federally chartered Canadian digital bank focused on institutional lending, is adding foreign exchange functionality to its tokenized deposit platform, allowing users to convert between US and Canadian dollars within a blockchain-based system.

Announced Tuesday, the upgrade enables real-time, 24/7 currency conversion using Real Bank Tokenized Deposits (RBTDs), that is, digital representations of fiat deposits issued and backed by the Ontario-based institution. 

The feature is designed to improve cross-border transactions by reducing reliance on traditional foreign exchange rails, which are often slower and limited by banking hours.

The update marks an incremental step toward commercialization rather than a full product launch. VersaBank has been piloting its tokenized deposit system since last year, and the addition of US dollar and Canadian dollar conversion expands its functionality for cross-border payments, particularly between the two countries.

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RBTDs are tokenized versions of bank deposits that can be transferred on blockchain infrastructure while remaining liabilities of the issuing bank and backed 1:1 by customer deposits, according to the American Bankers Association. Unlike stablecoins, which are typically issued by nonbank entities, they operate within the traditional banking system.

Related: Columbia Business professor casts doubt on tokenized bank deposits

Financial institutions explore tokenized deposits

Banks are increasingly exploring tokenized deposits as a way to combine blockchain-based speed and programmability with the safety of traditional deposits, particularly for use cases like cross-border payments and financial settlement, as outlined by KPMG.

One notable example is BNY’s launch of tokenized deposits for institutional clients, aimed at supporting collateral and margin requirements. BNY said the move comes as institutions seek “faster and more efficient ways to move assets.”

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Globally, Singapore’s Project Guardian is exploring asset tokenization in financial markets, including pilot programs involving tokenized deposits and other digital assets.

The push comes as tokenization emerges as one of blockchain’s fastest-growing use cases. Industry data shows more than $27 billion in tokenized assets across products ranging from private credit to US Treasury bonds and equities.

The growth of tokenized assets, excluding stablecoins. Source: RWA.xyz

Related: Crypto’s 2026 investment playbook: Bitcoin, stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized assets