Crypto World
Bitcoin Q1 2026 Posts Third-Worst Quarterly Loss Since 2013 as Ethereum Slides 32%
TLDR:
- Bitcoin’s Q1 2026 return of -23.21% is the third-worst since 2013, trailing only Q1 2018 and Q1 2014 losses.
- Ethereum recorded a -32.17% Q1 2026 return, falling well below its historical quarterly average of +66.45%.
- Bitcoin’s Q1 average of +45.90% is heavily skewed by extreme years like 2013’s record gain of +539.96%.
- Around $1.8 billion in sell orders hit derivatives books in one hour, linked to rising US-Iran geopolitical tension.
Bitcoin Q1 2026 return has dropped to -23.21%, marking one of the weakest first-quarter performances since 2013.
Ethereum also recorded a -32.17% decline during the same period. Data from CoinGlass shows both assets are trading well below their historical quarterly averages.
The numbers reflect broader stress across digital asset markets, driven by macro pressure and rising geopolitical tensions that have rattled investor confidence heading into the second quarter.
Bitcoin Falls to Third-Worst Q1 Since 2013
Bitcoin’s Q1 2026 return stands at -23.21%, placing it among the worst quarterly performances on record. Only Q1 2018 and Q1 2014 recorded steeper losses, at -49.7% and -37.42% respectively.
Both of those periods played out during confirmed bear-market cycles. The current result sits far below the historical Q1 average of +45.90%.
That average, however, is skewed by extreme years like 2013, when Bitcoin gained +539.96% in the first quarter. The 2021 Q1 also returned +103.17%, further pulling the average higher.
Source: Coinglass
The historical Q1 median sits at -2.26%, meaning negative quarters are not unusual. Still, a -23.21% return points to conditions well outside normal seasonal weakness.
The data suggests the market is dealing with more than routine volatility. Liquidity contraction and macro risk repricing appear to be key factors.
These are patterns typically seen during post-cycle deleveraging phases. Investors are not showing signs of early-cycle accumulation at this stage.
Ethereum’s Q1 performance tells a similar story, though the losses run deeper. Its -32.17% return is the third-worst Q1 since 2016. This is well below its historical Q1 average of +66.45% and median of +4.37%.
Derivatives Market Shows Signs of Forced Selling
Ethereum’s higher beta relative to Bitcoin means it tends to fall harder during risk-off periods. The Q1 2026 data is consistent with that pattern.
Capital rotation away from higher-volatility assets has been visible across the market. Together, Bitcoin and Ethereum’s performance points to a defensive macro posture rather than recovery.
Market analyst CryptoTice flagged a sharp spike in selling pressure through derivatives. The analyst noted that roughly $1.8 billion in aggressive market sell orders hit the books within a single hour.
Rising US-Iran tensions were cited as the catalyst behind the move. The analyst described it as urgency-driven selling rather than a rotation.
When derivatives lead price action, leverage tends to unwind quickly. Liquidations can cascade, and volatility expands rapidly as a result.
CryptoTice pointed to funding rates, open interest, and liquidity gaps as key areas to monitor. Stress in the derivatives market often shows up before spot prices fully react.
The combined picture across spot and derivatives markets reflects a cautious environment. Both retail and institutional participants appear to be reducing exposure rather than adding risk.
Geopolitical factors have added a layer of uncertainty that is difficult to price. Until clarity returns, volatility is likely to remain elevated across the crypto market.
Now almost a week old, the Bitcoin (BTC) recovery is “fragile” as the crypto market faces geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds from the ongoing war in the Middle East, according to Nic Puckrin, a crypto market analyst and founder of the CoinBureau media outlet.
“Even if the war ends now, its repercussions will likely be the story of 2026, and certainly the dominant narrative for Q2. I don’t expect to see a rate cut until late Q3 or Q4, if at all,” Puckrin told Cointelegraph. He said that he sees:
“For a push toward $90,000, we would need to see a combination of factors: a ceasefire that results in the end of geopolitical tensions, a sustained drop in oil prices toward $80, and ideally also softer-than-expected economic data that calms stagflation fears.”
If Bitcoin closes the week above $71,000, it could signal continued upside for BTC, with resistance forming around the $74,000 level, he said. At last look, it was trading at about $71,276, according to TradingView data.
The ongoing conflict has caused an inflationary spike, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index report, published on Friday, chilling hopes of further interest rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts or credit easing tend to stimulate asset prices.
Related: Bitcoin, Ether near levels that could signal trend reversal: Analyst
Bitcoin stumbles as Iran negotiations fail and US President threatens major escalation
Bitcoin surged by about 5.8% beginning on April 6, reaching above $73,000, before retracing to about $71,000 on April 11, following news of failed negotiations between the US and Iran, according to the Kobeissi Letter.
“Peace talks appear to have come to a screeching halt,” Kobeissi Letter said, adding, “the outcome of talks was arguably the worst-case scenario.”
Following the failed peace talks, US President Donald Trump said he directed the US military to form a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz.
“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump said on Saturday.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which decides interest rate policy in the US, remain divided on further interest rate cuts in 2026, citing inflation concerns from the war.
The FOMC did not rule out an interest rate hike in 2026 if inflation remains elevated above its 2% target, according to the meeting minutes from the March FOMC meeting.
According to the CME Fedwatch tool, there is more than a 98% probability of the FOMC maintaining the current target rate range of 350-375 basis points at the next two meetings, on April 29 and June 17. Chances drop to about 65% for the July 29 meeting, with a 33.6% probability of a 25-bps cut.
Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?
TLDR:
- Dogecoin completed two accumulation cycles, producing gains of 480% and 190% before each correction.
- A third accumulation zone is forming inside a descending channel with multiple failed breakout attempts.
- Analysts set upside targets at $0.50, $1, and $2, with a full cycle projection reaching near 2,700%.
- A higher-timeframe close below $0.048 remains the critical invalidation level for the current bullish fractal.
A third accumulation zone is quietly taking shape on Dogecoin’s weekly chart, tucked inside a descending channel that few are paying attention to right now.
History, however, has a way of rewarding patience in crypto markets. Two prior cycles delivered gains of 480% and 190% respectively — and analysts tracking the current structure believe the next move could dwarf them both.
Dogecoin’s Fractal Cycles Point to a Familiar Setup
The Dogecoin weekly chart spanning 2021 to 2026 outlines a recurring market structure. Two completed cycles show distinct periods of price consolidation followed by sharp upward moves.
The first cycle produced a 480% gain after an extended accumulation phase. The second followed with a 190% move under a similar setup.
Chart analysts describe this behavior as fractal repetition, where market structure rhymes across different time periods. The sequence of accumulation, breakout, correction, and expansion remains consistent across both cycles.
A third accumulation zone now appears to be forming on the weekly timeframe. Price is currently consolidating inside a descending channel, with multiple failed breakout attempts already recorded.
Analysts note that price stability at this level reflects steady demand absorption from long-term holders. The longer the price remains at this range, the stronger the eventual breakout tends to be.
Resistance Targets, Corrections, and What Traders Are Watching
The chart identifies three major upside targets for the next potential expansion. The first resistance sits near $0.50, aligned with a prior structural supply zone. Beyond that, $1 carries psychological and technical weight.
A full cycle extension places the projected target near $2. A confirmed higher-timeframe close below $0.048 remains the key invalidation level.
Losing this threshold would break the existing market structure and signal that the fractal is no longer valid. The current corrective phase has already drawn down approximately 83% from the prior cycle peak.
Some analysts believe the correction could extend further before a recovery begins. One observer remarked: “Doge is only bought when it has big and medium climbs, but during -80% corrections, no one even writes anything about it anymore.”
Certain traders have outlined entry strategies near Fibonacci retracement zones, with one planning to accumulate 100,000 DOGE at the Fibonacci level 1 area. Speculation around
Elon Musk’s potential involvement with Dogecoin in the next cycle also continues to circulate among market participants.
TLDR:
- Bitcoin trades near $72K, approaching strong resistance within a well-defined ascending channel range.
- Analysts warn a move toward $77K may trigger a liquidity grab before a possible bearish reversal.
- Strong support remains at $60K–$62K, where buyers have repeatedly prevented deeper declines.
- Market remains in a compression phase, with a breakout or rejection likely to define the next move.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a defined range after a sharp decline, with price action showing controlled recovery.
Market participants remain cautious as resistance nears, while analysts monitor whether the current structure leads to a breakout or renewed downside pressure.
Bitcoin Trades Within Ascending Channel as Resistance Nears
A recent tweet by Captain Faibik outlines a cautious outlook for Bitcoin despite short-term upward movement. He maintains that a bearish flag remains active on the daily timeframe, even as price attempts minor recoveries.
According to his view, brief rallies have repeatedly shifted sentiment, though broader control still leans toward sellers.
The chart shared alongside the tweet shows Bitcoin recovering from a steep drop near the $95,000 to $100,000 range.
That decline extended toward the $58,000 to $60,000 zone, where strong buying interest emerged. Since then, price has formed a structured recovery, building higher lows and gradually moving within an ascending channel.
Currently, Bitcoin trades near the $71,000 to $72,000 level. This places it in the upper-middle section of the channel, where momentum appears stable but constrained.
The upper boundary between $74,500 and $77,000 has acted as resistance, rejecting multiple attempts to move higher.
At the same time, the lower boundary around $60,000 to $62,000 continues to serve as a demand zone. Buyers have consistently stepped in at this level, preventing deeper declines.
As price approaches resistance again, traders are watching closely for either a breakout or another rejection.
Bearish Bias Remains Despite Altcoin Activity
Captain Faibik noted in his tweet that a move toward the $77,000 to $78,000 region could occur before a potential decline.
He pointed to a possible liquidity grab followed by a drop toward the $54,000 to $56,000 range. However, he emphasized that confirmation is still required before taking positions.
He also explained his contrasting stance on Bitcoin and altcoins. While maintaining a bearish view on Bitcoin, he has remained active in select altcoins over recent months.
His allocation strategy reflects this approach, with roughly half of his funds held in stable assets and the rest split between midterm altcoin positions and swing trades.
Meanwhile, key levels continue to guide market behavior. Immediate support sits near $70,000, while a mid-channel range between $66,000 and $68,000 acts as a balance zone.
Resistance remains firm below $77,000, and a clear break above this area would shift focus toward the $80,000 to $85,000 region.
Price action within the channel suggests a period of compression. This type of structure often precedes a sharp move once resistance or support gives way.
Until then, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with both upward continuation and downside rotation still possible.
The tweet reflects a wait-and-see approach, with no active trades opened yet. Market participants continue to monitor price behavior near resistance, as confirmation will likely determine the next directional move.
TLDR:
- JasmyCoin shows repeated falling wedge patterns, often linked with weakening bearish momentum.
- Multi-year consolidation reflects a balance between buyers and sellers before a possible trend shift.
- Current price compression near wedge support suggests a potential buildup toward a breakout move.
- A projected move toward $0.2785 depends on confirmed resistance breakout and sustained momentum.
JasmyCoin is drawing renewed attention after a technical analysis projected a potential long-term breakout toward higher price levels.
The outlook is based on multi-year chart structures that show extended consolidation, repeated falling wedge formations, and a possible transition from a prolonged downtrend into a bullish phase.
Multi-Year Structure Signals Gradual Market Shift
A recent tweet by Javon Marks outlined a macro view of JasmyCoin’s price action across several years. The analysis describes a clear transition from a sharp post-2021 decline into a more structured consolidation phase.
During the earlier cycle, the asset recorded consistent lower highs and lower lows, forming descending channels that reflected sustained selling pressure.
As time progressed, the chart began to show signs of stabilization. A falling wedge pattern emerged during the mid-cycle phase, where price action tightened within converging trendlines.
This structure often reflects weakening bearish momentum. A breakout attempt followed, leading to a short-lived upward move, which suggested early accumulation behavior.
After that move, JasmyCoin entered a broader consolidation range marked by sideways price action. The chart indicates multiple swings within this zone, showing a balance between buyers and sellers.
This range also reflects improved structural stability compared to the earlier downtrend phase. Such conditions often precede larger directional moves once market pressure resolves.
Current Compression Points to Potential Breakout Setup
More recently, the chart shows another falling wedge formation developing on the right side. Price action continues to compress toward the apex of this pattern, indicating reduced volatility and tightening market conditions. This setup often attracts attention due to its association with breakout scenarios.
The current price position remains near the lower boundary of the wedge. This area is commonly viewed as a demand zone where buyers may step in.
At the same time, the upper trendline serves as a resistance level that traders monitor for confirmation of a breakout.
Javon Marks’ tweet also pointed to a projected move toward the $0.2785 level. This target represents a large percentage increase from current prices, contingent on a confirmed breakout and sustained market support.
The projection is illustrated by a curved upward path on the chart, suggesting a gradual expansion rather than an immediate surge.
The broader structure suggests a transition from accumulation into a potential markup phase. However, this depends on whether price action can move above resistance levels with consistent momentum. If the asset fails to break out, the chart suggests continued consolidation or further compression within the wedge.
Overall, the analysis presents a technical setup where JasmyCoin approaches a key decision point. The combination of repeated wedge formations and long-term consolidation continues to shape expectations around a possible trend reversal, depending on future price behavior and market conditions.
Crypto World
XRP Tightens Near $1.33 as Market Builds Pressure Between Key Support and Resistance Levels
TLDR:
- XRP remains in a tight consolidation range near $1.33 with reduced volatility and declining trading volume in sessions.
- MACD shows a bullish crossover with the histogram turning positive, though the overall trend remains below the zero line.
- RSI stays below 50 at mid-40 levels, signaling weak momentum and a continued market indecision phase.
- Price action stays between $1.30 support and $1.50 resistance as traders wait for breakout confirmation signals.
XRP continues to trade within a tight range after months of decline, with recent data showing early signs of stabilization.
Market participants are closely watching resistance and support levels, as technical indicators signal a potential directional move.
XRP Consolidates After Downtrend as Key Levels Come Into Focus
XRP price action shows a clear shift from a prolonged decline into a consolidation phase. From November through early February, the asset recorded consistently lower highs and lower lows. A sharp drop in early February pushed prices toward the $1.20–$1.25 range.
Since that move, XRP has stabilized and now trades between defined levels. Immediate support sits near $1.30–$1.32, while resistance is seen between $1.45 and $1.50. At the time of analysis, XRP trades at $1.33168, reflecting a daily decline of 1.74%.
The narrowing price range suggests reduced volatility. Candles have become tighter, indicating a pause in aggressive selling.
Volume has also declined during this phase, pointing to reduced market participation. Traders often associate such conditions with a buildup before a larger move.
A recent post by analyst Ali Charts adds a broader perspective. The analyst notes that XRP has remained within a nine-year ascending triangle on the monthly chart. According to the post, repeated rejections at resistance have followed a consistent pattern since 2017.
The same analysis points to a potential retest of macro support between $0.75 and $0.80. This zone is described as a key level to watch if broader weakness returns. The long-term structure remains intact unless that rising trendline is broken.
Momentum Indicators Show Early Recovery but No Clear Trend Yet
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture, reflecting the ongoing consolidation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows early signs of recovery. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, with a reading of -0.01580 against -0.01996.
The histogram has turned slightly positive at 0.00416. This shift indicates a mild increase in bullish momentum. However, both lines remain below the zero mark, which keeps the broader trend in a neutral to bearish zone.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the midpoint. Current readings show RSI at 43.98, with its moving average at 43.26. This level reflects weak momentum and no clear dominance by buyers or sellers.
The RSI has recovered from oversold conditions seen during February’s decline. Still, it remains below 50, suggesting that bullish strength has not fully developed. The indicator is flattening, which aligns with the ongoing sideways movement.
Market structure now depends on a breakout from the current range. A move above $1.45–$1.50 could open the path toward $1.60 and $1.70. Such a move would likely require stronger volume and confirmation from momentum indicators.
On the downside, a break below $1.30 could lead to a retest of $1.20–$1.25. If that level fails, attention may shift to lower support zones. For now, XRP continues to trade within a defined range as the market waits for clearer direction.
TLDR:
- Gold now accounts for 24% of global central bank reserves, overtaking US Treasuries at just 21%.
- Gold’s reserve share has nearly tripled since 2015, driven by central bank buying and rising prices.
- The US seizure of Russia’s reserves in 2022 triggered a global shift away from dollar-denominated assets.
- China and BRICS nations have led steady US Treasury sell-offs since 2022, accelerating de-dollarisation.
Gold surpasses US Treasuries in global central bank reserves for the first time since the mid-1990s, with gold now commanding 24% of reserves against Treasuries’ 21%, Bloomberg data confirms.
The shift, years in the making, reflects sustained central bank buying, soaring gold prices, and a deliberate move away from dollar dependency. geopolitical shocks, from the seizure of Russia’s reserves to escalating US tariffs.
All have accelerated a de-dollarisation trend that is now reshaping the foundation of the international monetary system.
Gold Overtakes US Treasuries in Reserve Composition
Gold now accounts for 24% of global central bank reserves, while US government debt sits at 21%, according to Bloomberg data.
This marks a sharp reversal from the final quarter of 2015, when Treasuries made up 33% of reserves and gold just 9%.
Gold’s share has nearly tripled over the last decade, driven by aggressive central bank purchases and a sustained rise in gold prices.
Emerging market central banks have led this accumulation. These institutions have steadily diversified away from dollar-denominated assets, accelerating purchases as part of broader reserve management strategies.
The trend gained momentum from around 2017, when USD reserve growth began to plateau, while gold continued rising in both price and share.
Gold now makes up 24% of global central bank reserves, surpassing US Treasuries at 21% for the first time since the mid-1990s.
The reallocation reflects a growing preference for assets that carry no counterparty risk. Unlike US Treasuries, gold cannot be frozen or devalued through a foreign government’s policy decisions, making it attractive to reserve managers navigating a more uncertain geopolitical environment.
Geopolitical Shocks Deepen the De-Dollarisation Trend
The pace of change accelerated sharply in 2022 when the US seized Russia’s central bank reserves following the conflict in Ukraine. The move alarmed reserve managers globally and prompted many to reassess their exposure to dollar-denominated assets.
China and the leading BRICS nations began selling US Treasury bills in earnest from that year. Selling intensified further in April 2024 after the Trump administration launched the Liberation Day tariff scheme.
Additional pressure came from Operation Epic Fury, which further undermined confidence in the US as a reliable financial partner. These events together have driven a sustained shift in reserve composition.
While the US dollar remains dominant in global trade and finance, central banks are now actively reducing its share in their reserve baskets. Gold is no longer viewed as a supplementary reserve asset.
It has moved to the center of reserve strategy, holding more weight in global central bank portfolios than US government debt for the first time in nearly three decades.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3% to trade below $71,000 into Sunday’s weekly close after negotiations to end the US-Iran war broke down.
Key points:
-
Bitcoin shed its gains as negotiations between the US and Iran broke down.
-
The Strait of Hormuz becomes a flashpoint again as US President Donald Trump demanded that it be reopened.
-
BTC price downside punishes late long positions.
BTC price drops on US-Iran war fears
Data from TradingView showed BTC price action dipping below $71,000 after news of a sudden breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan.
A failure to reach an agreement on the issue of nuclear weapons resulted in both delegations leaving talks unfinished. Later, US President Donald Trump said that the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz and “interdict” vessels paying Iran for safe passage.
“No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.
A follow-up post repeated demands that Iran make Hormuz, a major oil transit route, fully operational.
Ahead of futures markets opening, reactions to the latest events spelled out the risks for the wider economy.
“If the path forward is continued war, escalation, and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then the Iran War has just entered a new era,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote in its latest analysis on X.
“US CPI inflation just jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% and further escalation of the Iran War would lead to 4.0%+ inflation, according to our models.”
Kobeissi referred to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, a gauge particularly sensitive to oil prices. Earlier this week, the March CPI print came in slightly below expectations, despite the highest jump in its oil-price component in 60 years.
“There are currently no plans for additional talks, according to Iranian media,” Kobeissi added.
“So, will Trump choose to push harder for diplomacy or double down on military action? Today, we find out.”
Bitcoin liquidations mount as longs suffer
As the only 24-hour-traded asset class, Bitcoin and crypto were the only ones reacting to the chaos in real time.
Related: Bitcoin analysis sees $55K BTC price ‘iron bottom’ by December 2026
Data from CoinGlass showed BTC/USD slicing through long liquidations, with the liquidation total for the past 24 hours nearing $350 million.
“Volatility remains high and it’s clear that there won’t be a path forward where risk-on assets will do well if this continues to be the consensus,” trader Michaël Van de Poppe wrote in an X response.
Van de Poppe suggested that the economic weakness as a result of the returning war could force the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity despite rising inflation.
“On a larger scale, I think that we’re currently in a sufficiently weak economy and the FED has no other option than to start printing again to positively influence the economy,” he argued.
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on rising odds of the US entering a recession in 2026.
Next week will bring more inflation cues from the March Producer Price Index (PPI) print, while multiple senior Fed officials will speak on the economy.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Bitcoin is currently trading at one of the most pivotal levels of this cycle, caught between long-term on-chain support and a wall of overhead resistance created by millions of underwater short-term holders.
Spot price $70,925
Weekly change +2.74%
Weekly RSI (14) 33.59
ATH drawdown -43%
Using Glassnode’s latest on-chain indicators alongside weekly and daily technical charts, this analysis breaks down exactly where Bitcoin stands today and what needs to happen next. Two clear scenarios emerge.
How Bearish is Bitcoin Right Now? Four Cost-Basis Levels are Critical
Glassnode’s latest Risk Indicator chart overlays four key on-chain price models against the Bitcoin spot price. Together, these models reveal where the market stands relative to the cost basis of different investor cohorts.
- Realized price — $54,000
The average cost basis of every coin on the network. Bitcoin trading above this level means the average holder is in profit. This is the most fundamental long-term support and is currently well below spot, which is a structurally positive signal.
- True market mean — $82,000
A more refined cost basis weighted by actual economic activity, filtering out dormant coins. Spot is currently below this level, meaning a meaningful portion of active participants are underwater.
- Active investor mean — $88,000
The average cost basis of active market participants. Price trading significantly below this level signals stress among engaged investors and acts as overhead resistance.
- Short-term holder cost basis — ($83–$84,000)
The average entry price for recent buyers (coins held for less than 155 days). With spot well below this level, short-term holders are sitting on unrealised losses — historically a source of continued selling pressure, but also a precondition for a capitulation bottom.
The key takeaway: spot at $70,925 sits above only the realized price and below the three other indicators.
This places Bitcoin in a historically recognized stress zone. Not the deep bear market territory of 2022 (when price fell below even the realized price), but a mid-cycle correction where short-term holders are underwater and overhead supply is significant.
Bitcoin’s Macro Structure In a Key Position
The weekly chart (August 2020 to present) provides the macro technical backdrop.
Bitcoin peaked at approximately $126,000 in October 2025 and has since corrected roughly 43% to current levels.
The current price is retesting the previous cycle’s all-time high from 2021 (~$69,000, yellow line), a level that historically transitions from major resistance into long-term support. This week’s green candle suggests early signs of a defense of that zone.
The RSI is right above the oversold territory (below 30) after visiting it for a few weeks in February 2026 (blue ellipse). Historically, the 2022 bear market saw RSI remain deeply oversold for many weeks.
The current reading is approaching those levels, which either signals further downside ahead or that a significant bounce is near. A bullish divergence — price making a lower low while RSI holds higher — would be a meaningful signal to watch.
The MACD is approaching its first bullish crossover (yellow circle) on the weekly chart since May 2025. This is a clear positive signal that has historically led to sharp rallies.
However, during the 2022 bear market, even a bullish MACD crossover failed to trigger a price rebound.
A bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart would be a high-conviction reversal signal, but it has not yet occurred.
Broken Support, Fragile Crossovers, and a Key Demand Zone
The daily chart (January 2025 to present) provides the shorter-term picture and is where the most actionable signals currently reside.
The green-dotted box on the daily chart, at approximately $73-74,000, represents the March 2024 all-time high. It was a previously important resistance level that briefly became support, and has now been broken to the downside.
This breakdown is technically significant: price is now trading below that structural level, which has flipped into overhead resistance. The February 2026 low around $65,000 remains the key support level below current prices.
After reaching deeply oversold levels in December 2025 and again in February 2026, the daily RSI has recovered to a neutral mid-40s to low-50s range (blue ellipse).
This suggests panic selling has subsided, but bullish momentum has not yet been confirmed. A move above 60 on the daily RSI would indicate a genuine trend shift.
The daily MACD lines have crossed bullish and are hovering just above zero — a tentative positive signal (yellow circle). The histogram bars are small and mixed, reflecting consolidation rather than directional conviction.
This crossover needs to hold, and the histogram needs to expand into green territory to confirm follow-through buying.
Putting It All Together: Two Scenarios, One Line in The Sand
Combining Glassnode on-chain data with both timeframes of technical analysis yields two scenarios. The levels that confirm or invalidate each scenario are clearly defined.
Bullish Scenario: Mid-Cycle Correction, Continuation Higher
In a bullish scenario, the $69,000 level (previous cycle ATH) holds as support, short-term holders capitulate, and the market resets for a new leg higher:
- Price defends the $69,000 weekly support zone and forms a higher low on the daily chart
- Daily RSI breaks above 60, confirming bullish momentum restoration
- Daily MACD histogram expands into green territory with increasing bar size
- Price reclaims the $73-74,000 level (former support, now resistance) — this is the first key confirmation
- Price then targets the $80-84,000 cluster (True Market Mean + STH Cost Basis) — reclaiming this zone would confirm a bullish trend reversal
- On-chain: STH cost basis reclaimed would mean short-term holders return to profit, removing a key source of selling pressure
Bearish scenario — deeper correction, structural breakdown
In a bearish scenariu overhead supply from underwater short-term holders is too heavy, the $69,000 support fails, and Bitcoin seeks deeper value:
- Price breaks below $69,000 on a weekly close. This is the primary bearish confirmation signal
- Weekly RSI drops below 30 and stays there, mirroring 2022 bear market conditions
- Daily MACD bullish crossover fails, and lines roll back below zero
- Next downside target: $65,000 (February 2026 demand zone) — a break here accelerates selling
- Deeper target: $54,000 (realized price). Historically the zone where bear markets find their ultimate floor
- On-chain: price approaching realized price would represent maximum fear, and historically, the highest-probability long-term entry zone
Overall Assessment: $69,000 is the Line in the Sand
The weight of evidence currently leans cautiously bearish on the short-term but constructive on the medium-to-long term. Bitcoin is in a historically recognized stress zone — below the STH cost basis and the True Market Mean, but well above the realized price floor.
The weekly RSI is approaching oversold territory, and the daily MACD is poised for a bullish crossover, suggesting the worst of the selling may be near, but confirmation has not yet arrived.
The $69,000 level is the line in the sand: hold it, and the bull case builds; lose it on a weekly close, and significantly lower prices become the base case.
The post The Hidden On-Chain Signal That Shows Bitcoin Is Closer to a Bottom Than Most Think appeared first on BeInCrypto.
MicroStrategy revealed that its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings need just 2.05% annual growth to cover all preferred stock dividends indefinitely, without issuing new common shares.
Chairman Michael Saylor shared the metric in a post, alongside a chart showing the firm’s 766,970 BTC reserve valued near $58 billion.
How 2% BTC Growth Funds Billions in Dividends
MicroStrategy’s BTC Breakeven Annual Rate of Return measures the minimum bitcoin appreciation needed to service dividend payments on its preferred stock, including STRC.
“Our BTC Breakeven ARR is ~2.05%. If Bitcoin grows faster than that over time, we can cover our dividends indefinitely without issuing new $MSTR shares,” wrote Saylor.
At 2.05%, that threshold sits far below Bitcoin’s historical annualized returns.
The company’s dashboard shows roughly 48.7 years of dividend coverage at current reserve levels. Strategy holds 766,970 BTC acquired at an average price of $75,648 per coin, with total holdings valued near $54.58 billion.
STRC, Strategy’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, currently yields 11.5% annually.
The instrument trades near its $100 par value and pays monthly cash dividends. Proceeds from STRC issuances fund additional Bitcoin purchases.
Saylor posted the breakeven data alongside a separate “Think ₿igger” message featuring Strategy’s cumulative purchase chart. His Sunday posts have historically preceded Monday 8-K filings disclosing new large BTC acquisitions.
The low breakeven suggests that even modest long-term Bitcoin appreciation generates enough value from MicroStrategy’s reserve to service high-yield preferred dividends while supporting continued accumulation.
The post Michael Saylor Says Just 2% Bitcoin Growth Covers MicroStrategy’s Dividends Forever appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry confirmed on April 12 that it had restored full pumping capacity on its East-West pipeline, returning throughput to approximately 7 million barrels per day after attacks earlier this month cut output.
The recovery comes as US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed without an agreement, leaving energy markets facing renewed uncertainty ahead of Monday’s open.
What Happened to Saudi Oil Infrastructure
Recent attacks during the US-Iran war disrupted an estimated 600,000 barrels per day of Saudi production. The Manifa field lost approximately 300,000 bpd, and the Khurais field saw a similar reduction. Moreover, it also cut East-West pipeline throughput by 700,000 bpd.
“An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that important energy facilities in the Kingdom have recently been subjected to multiple attacks, including oil and gas production, transportation, and refining facilities, as well as petrochemical facilities and the electricity sector in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and Yanbu Industrial City,” the officials wrote.
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The energy ministry stopped short of naming the attacker directly, though Riyadh has been intercepting waves of Iranian drones and missiles throughout the war. JPMorgan analysts estimated the combined damage at roughly 10% of Saudi Arabia’s pre-conflict crude exports, noting it represented a “measurable supply shock.”
In a recent update, the energy ministry said the East–West pipeline and Manifa output have been restored. However, work on the Khurais field is still underway and will be announced upon completion.
“Ministry of Energy announced the success of operational and technical efforts in restoring the full pumping capacity through the East–West pipeline, amounting to approximately seven million barrels per day, and recovering the affected volumes from the Manifa field production of around 300,000 barrels per day, all within a short period of time,” the press release read. “With regard to the Khurais field, work is still ongoing to restore full production capacity, and this will be announced upon completion.”
The ministry added that Aramco’s rapid restoration demonstrated its “high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency.”
US Iran Failed Talks Add Pressure to Monday’s Open
The pipeline fix landed hours after Vice President JD Vance confirmed that 21 hours of negotiations with Iran in Islamabad produced no deal. The two sides are still divided on key issues, including the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program.
The strait normally carries approximately 20% of global seaborne oil. The International Energy Agency has called the disruption the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market.
Oil prices have surged since the conflict began in late February. The conflict has also rattled food, aluminum, and liquefied natural gas markets.
Saudi Arabia’s partial recovery helps, but it cannot replace the full volume lost from the Hormuz disruption. Monday’s market opening will test whether the pipeline restoration can offset the diplomatic failure in Islamabad.
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The post Saudi Arabia Restores Major Oil Pipeline After Recent Attacks, Will Prices Drop? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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