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As votes are counted across West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry on Monday, equity traders are preparing for what could be a volatile start to the trading week. Counting for 824 assembly seats begins at 8 am, with early trends expected within the first two hours and clearer leads likely by late morning.

While state elections often trigger sharp intraday moves, analysts say investors should look beyond political headlines and focus on broader macro signals before taking aggressive positions.

Here are 10 things investors should track today before placing trades on Monday

1) West Bengal remains the biggest market trigger

Exit polls suggest the BJP could emerge as the single largest force in West Bengal with around 159 seats, above the majority mark of 148, while the TMC is projected near 127 seats. A stronger-than-expected BJP showing could boost sentiment for infrastructure, railways, power and eastern India capex themes.

Ishan Tanna of Ashika Capital said better Centre-state alignment in Bengal could improve project execution and policy implementation, which may support capex-linked sectors.
2) Assam is largely priced in
Exit polls show the BJP-led alliance retaining Assam with around 90 seats in the 126-member assembly. Since continuity is already expected, analysts do not see Assam alone as a major standalone market trigger.
3) Tamil Nadu and Kerala largely stay away from national issues
The DMK-led alliance is expected to retain Tamil Nadu with around 128 seats, while Kerala could see the Congress-led UDF cross the majority mark. Any surprise deviation here may trigger sector-specific reactions, especially in state-linked infrastructure, ports and industrial names.
4) Not chasing the first opening move
Nitant Darekar of Bonanza said election result days often create headline volatility but not necessarily durable trends. “Most exit poll outcomes appear priced in. Traders should avoid chasing sharp opening moves as these often reverse after the first hour,” he said.

5) Nifty may swing 1-1.5% either way
Paresh Bhagat, Chairman of Mangal Keshav Financial Services, expects contained volatility. “Nifty could move around 1% to 1.5% depending on whether final results are in line with or different from exit polls, but scope for a major surprise looks limited,” he said.

6) Crude oil remains the biggest risk
Brent crude is trading above $113 per barrel amid the Iran conflict and shipping concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say this remains a bigger market driver than election outcomes.

Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth said crude remains “the single most critical macro variable” for Indian markets.

7) Foreign fund flows
FIIs sold Rs 70,100 crore worth of Indian equities in April, marking their tenth straight month of selling. In calendar 2026, foreign investors have already pulled nearly Rs 2.4 lakh crore from Indian equities. If election results fail to improve sentiment, FII selling could continue.

8) Domestic institutions are still absorbing pressure
DIIs invested about Rs 51,000 crore in April, cushioning the impact of foreign outflows. Whether domestic buying continues next week will be closely watched.

9) Technical levels
The Nifty closed Friday at 23,997, just below the key 24,000 mark. Analysts say 23,900-23,850 remains immediate support, while 24,200–24,300 is the first resistance zone. Meanwhile, a breakout above 24,300 could trigger short covering, the index below 23,900 may invite fresh selling.

10) Markets usually move back to global cues quickly
Market expert Ajay Bagga said state election outcomes rarely have a lasting impact. “The market may react for a day or two, but then it goes back to oil prices, FPI flows and the rupee. Those remain the three big variables,” he said.

Indian equities head into the event on weak footing. The Nifty lost 0.73% last week, while the Sensex slipped nearly 1% amid elevated crude prices, foreign selling and geopolitical uncertainty.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

The war in the Middle East is poised to deliver the most severe blow to global energy markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank warned this week, with consequences stretching from oil fields to farmlands to the dinner tables of the world’s poorest households.

Key takeaways

• Brent crude is forecast to average $86/barrel in 2026 as Middle East disruptions slash global oil supply by roughly 10 million barrels per day.
• Fertilizer prices jumping 31% could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year.
• Developing economies hit hardest: Growth slows to 3.6% while inflation climbs to 5.1%, with over 60% of commodity exporters and 70% of importers facing weaker-than-expected performance.

In its April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, the Bank projects energy prices will surge 24% this year, their highest level since 2022, while overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16%, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer costs alongside record-high prices for key metals.

The trigger is a historic disruption to oil flows. Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 35% of global seaborne crude, have produced the largest oil supply shock on record, cutting global supply by about 10 million barrels per day. Brent crude is now forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 last year.

The ripple effects are severe. Fertilizer prices are projected to climb 31%, driven by a 60% jump in urea prices, threatening crop yields and farmers’ incomes worldwide.

If the conflict drags on, up to 45 million additional people could be pushed into acute food insecurity this year, according to the World Food Programme. Meanwhile, precious metals prices are forecast to rise 42% as investors seek safe-haven assets amid deepening geopolitical uncertainty.

The macroeconomic damage is already being priced in. Inflation in developing economies is now projected to average 5.1% in 2026, a full percentage point above pre-war expectations.

Developing economies are expected to grow just 3.6% this year, with more than 60% of commodity exporters and 70% of commodity importers worldwide facing weaker growth than anticipated in January.

World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill did not mince words:

“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation. The poorest people will be hit the hardest. All of this is a reminder of a stark truth, war is development in reverse.”

The outlook could darken further. Should hostilities escalate or disruptions last longer than projected, Brent oil could average as high as $115 a barrel, pushing developing-economy inflation to 5.8%, a level surpassed only in 2022 over the past decade.

Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose urged targeted action over sweeping intervention: governments, he argued, should deliver rapid, temporary support to the most vulnerable rather than broad fiscal measures that risk distorting markets and depleting fiscal buffers.

The message from Washington is unambiguous, the world is entering a period of compounding commodity stress, and the countries with the least room to absorb it will bear the greatest cost.

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