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Bitcoin Rebounds From 21-Month Low as Leverage Data Warns of Risk

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin rebounded on Wednesday after tagging a 21-month low, with BTC rising as high as $60,200 and gaining roughly 2.7% over the past 24 hours from earlier losses. The bounce lifted major alternatives as well: Ether (ETH) rose about 3%, while Solana (SOL) climbed roughly 4.85%.

Still, the recovery is happening against a backdrop of persistent caution. According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index maintained by Alternative.me, sentiment is around 11 out of 100—an “Extreme Fear” reading—suggesting many market participants remain nervous about what comes next. Even with today’s uptick, Bitcoin is still down about a third since the start of the year.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s intraday bounce followed a fresh 21-month low near $57,737, but broader confidence remains weak with the Fear & Greed Index in “Extreme Fear.”
  • US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been net negative recently, including a reported $4.5 billion outflow in June—the largest since the funds launched—indicating cautious institutional positioning.
  • On-chain data points to strength from long-term holders, with an estimated addition of roughly 270,000 BTC over the past two weeks.
  • Funding rates have stayed positive for three straight days, implying leverage is still leaning toward long exposure even as price remains under pressure.
  • Liquidation risk appears heaviest in the $57,000 to $60,500 band, meaning sustained moves beyond roughly $61,000 or below $56,000 could accelerate volatility.

Fear remains elevated even after the rebound

Market pricing today reflects a tug-of-war between dip-buyers and the fear of further downside. The latest sentiment readings underline that many traders are still operating defensively, despite Bitcoin’s recovery attempt from the yearly low area.

This matters because fear can shape how quickly the market absorbs negative news. When sentiment is extremely negative, rebounds often face selling pressure not just from those who missed the decline, but from participants who are using rallies to reduce risk. The result is a market that can rally sharply—then struggle to build follow-through.

ETF outflows versus long-term accumulation

One of the clearest contrasts in the data is between institutional product flows and on-chain holder behavior.

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US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen more money leaving than entering in recent weeks, including a reported total outflow of $4.5 billion in June, described as the largest since the funds began launching. That pattern typically suggests that, at least for now, some traditional investors are not convinced enough to add exposure during a drawdown.

At the same time, on-chain indicators show long-term holders accumulating. According to the on-chain data referenced in the analysis, long-term wallets added about 270,000 BTC over the past two weeks. In crypto market interpretation, that kind of accumulation is often read as evidence that bigger investors view the recent decline as an opportunity rather than a prompt to sell.

The tension between these two signals—net outflows from ETFs versus accumulation by long-term holders—helps explain why the market can bounce without fully transitioning into a sustained uptrend. Flows may stay cautious while deeper capital continues to build positions more quietly.

Funding rates stay positive as leverage crowds in

Another point to watch is leverage. The analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s funding rate has remained positive for three consecutive days. In practical terms, that means the prevailing derivatives positioning has continued to lean toward bets that prices will rise.

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Positive funding while spot prices are weak can be a volatility risk. When one side of the market becomes overcrowded with leveraged longs, a further downside move can force liquidations that amplify the drop—especially if price breaks key support levels. Conversely, if the market stabilizes or turns upward while longs remain funded, the same mechanism can also support rallies through short-covering and stop-trigger effects.

As of now, the key point is that leverage appears active, but price confirmation has not yet clearly followed through in a way that would suggest the market has fully flipped from fear to conviction.

Liquidations cluster around current trading levels

Where liquidation risk sits is often central to understanding how quickly price can move during stressful periods. Using a three-exchange, three-day liquidation heatmap (as cited in the analysis, sourced from Hyblock), the highest concentration of leveraged positioning appears roughly between $57,000 and $60,500. That zone closely overlaps with the trading range Bitcoin has held since late June.

Above that area, the density of liquidation risk thins out noticeably between approximately $61,000 to $62,000. Below, a similar reduction appears around $55,000 to $56,000. This distribution suggests that a move breaking out of the present range could encounter less immediate “magnet” pressure from nearby liquidations—while a move that stays within or slightly beyond the clustered zone could lead to sharper, more abrupt price reactions.

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In the near term, the analysis argues that most forced unwind potential sits close to current prices rather than far away. That is why decisive movement beyond roughly $61,000 to the upside—or below about $56,000 on the downside—could create room for accelerated liquidation-driven volatility.

Looking ahead to the next 24 hours, the outlook described here is neutral. A meaningful change would likely require stronger evidence that leveraged positioning is both rising and aligning with a rising spot price—an interaction the analysis notes has not clearly emerged yet.

Traders and investors should monitor whether ETF flow weakness persists alongside continued long-term accumulation, and whether derivatives conditions evolve—particularly funding rate direction and liquidation clustering—as these factors together will determine whether this bounce becomes a trend or fades back into range-bound action.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Binance stock trading tops $1B in first month after launch

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Binance enters U.S. stock trading with 7,000 equities for users

Binance said its Direct Stocks product crossed $1 billion in U.S. equities acquired within 30 days of launch. 

Summary

  • Binance’s Direct Stocks crossed $1B in user-held U.S. equities within 30 days of launch globally.
  • Emerging markets made up 73% of users, showing demand for app-based access to U.S. stocks.
  • Stablecoins helped users buy fractional equities beside crypto without traditional brokerage and bank transfer barriers.

The product went live on June 1 and gives eligible users access to more than 7,000 U.S. stocks and ETFs in the same app they use for crypto.

The exchange said the product also processed close to $3 billion in trading volume during the same period. The 30-day window included 22 trading days, according to a Binance blog post.

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Binance said about 73% of Direct Stocks users came from emerging markets. The company framed the data around demand from regions where brokerage accounts, bank wires, minimum balances, and foreign market access have often limited retail participation.

Binance stock access gains early demand

Direct Stocks lets users buy fractional U.S. stocks and ETFs with stablecoins and selected crypto balances. As previously reported, Binance opened U.S. stock trading access for eligible non-U.S. users in June, offering more than 7,000 equities and ETFs with purchases starting from $5.

The product places equities beside crypto balances in one interface. Binance said the setup removes some steps tied to traditional brokerage access, including separate bank transfers and new account flows. The company said users acquired more than $150 million in U.S. equities per day during the first 30 days.

Emerging markets drive the user base

Binance said emerging markets accounted for most Direct Stocks users. The company also said about one in seven visitors to its stock trading page registered an account, and nearly 90% of those new sign-ups placed a trade.

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The data follows earlier Binance Research claims about broader demand for equity access through crypto exchanges. As reported by crypto.news, Binance Research projected that crypto exchanges could bring 300 million new equity investors and $2 trillion in new capital into global stock markets by 2031. The report linked that growth to stablecoins, crypto exchange reach, and users in underbanked regions.

Shunyet Jan, Binance’s Head of Spot and Derivatives Business, said, “A billion dollars in 30 days is a sign of the demand that’s been waiting decades for a door to walk through.” He added that Binance built the product for users who “never had a way in.”

Stock trading uses broker-linked rails

Binance does not custody the securities traded through Direct Stocks. Binance disclosed an Alpaca stake as its stock trading service expanded. Nest Trading acts as introducing broker, while Alpaca handles execution, clearing, settlement, custody, dividends, and corporate actions.

The model gives Binance exposure to traditional equities while keeping securities activity linked to regulated brokerage partners. Users fund stock purchases with stablecoins and supported crypto assets. Binance said the product targets eligible users outside the U.S.

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Tokenized equity race widens

The direct stock rollout comes as exchanges add more equity-linked products. Crypto.news reported that Binance launched bStocks, letting eligible users convert supported U.S. stock holdings into tokenized assets that can trade around the clock.

Moreover, other exchanges are also moving into stock access. Bitget launched Stock+, allowing eligible users to buy real U.S. stocks with crypto converted into USDC through regulated brokers.

Binance said technology stocks made up the largest share of Direct Stocks holdings. It said the technology sector accounted for about 71% of holdings, while semiconductor names made up around 48%. The company also projected that Direct Stocks could exceed $10 billion by the end of 2026 if current growth continues, though it said the projection was illustrative and not a guarantee.

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FBI Director Kash Patel caught sleeping on required disclosure of six-figure MSTR investment

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FBI Director Kash Patel caught sleeping on required disclosure of six-figure MSTR investment

FBI Director Kash Patel failed to timely disclose a six-figure purchase of stock in Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly-listed bitcoin holder, according to a report by nonpartisan news outlet NOTUS.

Patel supposedly purchased between $100,001 and $250,000 worth of MSTR on Nov. 21, but did not report the trade to regulators until May 26.

The reason for the delay? miscommunication. Patel informed the Office of Government Ethics that he “inadvertently omitted” the transaction due to an unspecified “miscommunication.”

According to the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act, high-ranking executive branch officials need to publicly disclose individual stock trades over $1,000 within 45 days from the transaction.

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The trade has drawn intense scrutiny from government watchdogs due to Strategy’s BTC accumulation business and its previous business with federal agencies.

The company, which according to NOTUS has done millions of dollars in business over the years with the Justice Department, calls itself as a “Bitcoin Treasury Company,” and aggressively accumulates BTC as its primary reserve asset. Since 2020, the company has built a coin stash of 847,363 BTC, worth over $50 billion as of this writing.

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France Reports 77 Crypto Wrench Attacks in 2026

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France Reports 77 Crypto Wrench Attacks in 2026

French Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez has promised a “more ambitious” approach to tackling crypto ransom attacks after confirming there were 77 kidnapping, extortion or attempted extortion incidents linked to crypto in the first half of 2026. 

Nuñez said Tuesday that the 77 incidents recorded so far this year are up sharply from the 45 recorded in all of 2025, according to local outlet BFM Business.

“These are serious matters, and your concern is legitimate,” he told the Association for the Development of Digital Assets (ADAN) as he promised more government support.

France has become one of the biggest hot spots for crypto wrench attacks, where criminals use physical violence to coerce victims into handing over crypto. Approximately 11% of French people own cryptocurrencies, according to ADAN, which equates to about 7.3 million people.

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France’s rapid alert and protection system 

Earlier this year, French authorities launched a dedicated prevention platform and a rapid-alert and protection system for crypto holders and professionals, which has attracted 724 sign-ups so far, Nuñez said.

Nuñez said that emergency measures have resulted in 200 arrests, with one recent attacker being arrested within eight hours on Friday, thanks in part to the victim using an emergency identification hotline.

Related: StarkWare introduces ‘Private KYC’ to address personal data breaches

Nuñez promised a “more ambitious” three-part plan to reinforce security measures for the crypto sector. This includes stronger intelligence-sharing, since criminal networks are often based abroad, a deeper partnership with ADAN and better operational coordination between security services. 

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French wrench attacks on the rise

Blockchain security firm CertiK reported in May that wrench attacks globally were up 41% in the first four months of 2026, compared with the same period last year, with most attacks in Europe. 

The firm said France is the “epicenter” of attacks because of the presence of several flagship industry companies and their executives, a “culture of flexing and voluntary doxxing that remains deeply embedded in the community,” and proven exposure from numerous sensitive data leaks.

David Balland, co-founder of French hardware wallet maker Ledger, was kidnapped and held for ransom along with his partner in January 2025 before being rescued by police. 

Ledger suffered one of the industry’s most damaging data breaches when its customer database was hacked in 2020, resulting in the leak of more than 270,000 personal records and a wave of phishing and wrench attacks that continue to this day. 

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“France ranks among the most targeted countries in the world for this type of breach,” CertiK said.

Europe is becoming a hotbed for wrench attacks in 2026. Source: CertiK

Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves

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KOSPI Drops Below 8,000, Triggers Yet Another 2026 Trading Halt

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The KOSPI Index has faced a lot of volatility of late; posting record highs, but also seeing sharp declines

The KOSPI sank below 8,000 on July 2. The drop pushed the Korea Exchange (KRX) to activate a sell-side sidecar within minutes of the opening bell.

The Korea Exchange suspended program trading on KOSPI-listed shares for five minutes. Heavy selling in semiconductor stocks drove the move. The benchmark opened 4.46% lower and kept falling from there.

Another Halt in a Record-Breaking Year

The index had dropped 534.25 points, or 6.43%, to 7,769.16 by 9:51 a.m. local time. A sell-side sidecar triggers automatically once KOSPI 200 futures fall 5% or more for at least one minute.

The KOSPI Index has faced a lot of volatility of late; posting record highs, but also seeing sharp declines
The KOSPI Index has faced a lot of volatility of late; posting record highs, but also seeing sharp declines. Image Source: Trading View

Thursday’s pause is far from an isolated event. The exchange has repeatedly triggered sidecars and circuit breakers throughout 2026. Volatility this year has already topped the 2008 financial crisis, when the KOSPI set its prior annual sidecar record of 26 halts.

By late June, the KRX had logged close to 30 sidecar activations and five circuit breakers this year alone. Both figures already beat that 2008 tally.

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Chipmakers Bear the Brunt

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together make up roughly half of the KOSPI’s market capitalization. The two chipmakers have repeatedly driven these swings. Their shares extended losses again Thursday, tracking a global chip stock selloff that started on Wall Street overnight.

The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.66% Wednesday. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF lost 5.4%. Micron Technology and Sandisk each dropped more than 10%. The rout followed weeks of sharp reversals in the KOSPI’s chip-driven rally, a rally that had pushed the index to record highs earlier this year.

Semiconductor stocks still dominate the index. Traders now face a familiar question: will Thursday’s selloff deepen further, or fade as quickly as prior swings have this year.

The post KOSPI Drops Below 8,000, Triggers Yet Another 2026 Trading Halt appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Senator Lummis Calls to Stop ‘Baseless Attacks’ on the Clarity Act

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Polymarket Odds for the Clarity Act Being Signed Into Law in 2026

Senator Cynthia Lummis defended the Clarity Act against Senator Elizabeth Warren, rejecting claims that the digital-asset bill creates illicit finance loopholes and pointing to more than 16 safeguards written into the legislation.

The Wyoming Republican responded after Warren argued that adversaries exploit crypto to move billions and that the bill would weaken standards. Their clash comes as the Senate races against a narrow legislative calendar.

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Lummis Points to Built-In Safeguards

Lummis countered that the Clarity Act strengthens illicit finance rules rather than weakening them. She listed specific provisions in a public rebuttal.

Lummis noted that Section 201 applies the Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering (BSA/AML) rules to crypto. Section 303 adds new sanctions aimed at Iran. Section 305 lets exchanges freeze dirty money.

“If you don’t like crypto, then say it, but stop these baseless attacks,” she said.

Illicit finance concerns have become a central sticking point for the legislation. Law enforcement groups and Catholic coalitions pushed back in separate letters last month.

Their objections targeted Section 604, the bill’s developer safe harbor. Critics say broad exemptions could weaken oversight of criminal fund flows.

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Clarity Act Passage Odds Slide on Polymarket as Deadline Nears

Meanwhile, the timing raises the stakes for the bill. The Senate returns from recess on July 13, leaving a narrow window before the August break. 

The bill must clear the Senate by then to stand a chance of becoming law this year. That path requires 60 votes, including at least seven Democrats.

Prediction markets have turned cautious. On Polymarket, the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 fell to 39%, down from 64% in early June.

Polymarket Odds for the Clarity Act Being Signed Into Law in 2026
Polymarket Odds for the Clarity Act Being Signed Into Law in 2026. Source: Polymarket

Analysts have shifted, too. Galaxy Research now puts the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 50%, down from 60% on June 5, citing the shrinking Senate calendar.

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Tether freezes USDT in 131 ISIS-K-linked TRON wallets: Chainalysis

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Tether freezes USDT in 131 ISIS-K-linked TRON wallets: Chainalysis

Tether has frozen USDT balances in 131 TRON wallets linked to ISIS-K after U.S. sanctions officials added more than 100 crypto identifiers tied to the group. 

Summary

  • Tether froze USDT balances across 131 ISIS-K-linked TRON wallets after OFAC updated its sanctions identifiers.
  • Chainalysis said the TRON wallets received over $1.4 million and sent over $880,000 since 2023.
  • The action adds pressure on VASPs to update sanctions screening for newly listed crypto addresses.

The move places stablecoin issuer controls at the center of a new terrorism-financing action involving TRON and Monero addresses.

Chainalysis said the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control updated its ISIS-K designation on July 1. The update added 134 crypto wallet identifiers, including 131 TRON addresses and three Monero addresses. 

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“Tether has frozen the balances on all 131 TRON addresses,” said Chainalysis.

The official OFAC update lists the wallets under ISIL Khorasan, also known as ISIS-K. The group is the Islamic State’s Afghanistan and Pakistan branch. OFAC had already designated ISIS-K as a terrorist group before adding the new crypto wallet identifiers.

Chainalysis tracks Tether flows across TRON wallets

Chainalysis said the 131 TRON addresses had received more than $1.4 million since 2023. The same wallets sent out more than $880,000 over that period. The blockchain analytics firm said several listed wallets had exposure to mainstream services and also sent funds to Syria-based crypto exchangers.

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The report said ISIS-K’s media branch, al-Azaim Media Foundation, has used websites and messaging platforms to seek crypto donations. Chainalysis said it had collected past donation addresses on TRON, Monero, and Bitcoin. The firm also noted that earlier public terrorism-financing campaigns often used smaller donations, rather than a few large transfers.

Stablecoin freeze role keeps growing

The latest freeze follows a wider rise in issuer-level enforcement around USDT. As previously reported, Tether’s T3 Financial Crime Unit passed $450 million in frozen suspected illicit assets since its 2024 launch. The unit is backed by Tether, TRON, and TRM Labs, and focuses on USDT activity on the TRON network.

Moreover, Tether froze more than $514 million across 370 addresses during one 30-day period earlier this year. Most of the frozen funds were on TRON. BlockSec data cited in that report showed Tether blacklisted 4,163 addresses in 2025, freezing $1.26 billion across Ethereum and TRON.

Sanctions pressure reaches compliance teams

The ISIS-K action also comes after other terrorism-linked wallet freezes this year. Victims with U.S. terrorism judgments asked a New York court to order Tether to turn over 344,149,759 USDT held in two OFAC-blocked TRON wallets linked to Iran’s IRGC. That case centers on whether frozen stablecoins can be transferred to judgment creditors.

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Chainalysis said the July 1 actions require virtual asset service providers and financial institutions to update sanctions screening and transaction monitoring. The firm also said it labeled the relevant addresses in its products. The step gives compliance teams a way to detect exposure to the newly listed ISIS-K wallets and related networks.

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Circle CEO Rebuts OUSD Pitch, Defends USDC's Network Effects After Stock Slide

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Circle CEO Rebuts OUSD Pitch, Defends USDC's Network Effects After Stock Slide


Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire published a lengthy rebuttal on X on July 1 to the pitch behind OUSD, the stablecoin launched by the Open Standard consortium, arguing that USDC's advantages in distribution, liquidity and regulatory licensing are not easily replicated. "We've had lots of… Read the full story at The Defiant

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South Korea’s K Wave Media exits Bitcoin after 10,000 BTC goal

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5 red months, 74% LTH profit rapidly eroding

K Wave Media has sold its remaining Bitcoin holdings, ending a short-lived treasury push that once aimed to turn the Nasdaq-listed Korean media company into a major corporate BTC holder. 

Summary

  • K Wave Media sold its remaining 88 BTC to repay $6 million in debt obligations.
  • The company once said it wanted to expand Bitcoin holdings toward 10,000 BTC quickly afterward.
  • K Wave’s filing shows it halted Bitcoin strategy while shifting focus toward AI infrastructure investments.

The sale came less than a year after the company said it had access to up to $1 billion in financing for its Bitcoin strategy.

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K Wave sells 88 BTC to repay debt

In a June 30 SEC filing, K Wave said it liquidated 88 Bitcoin held in its treasury and used the proceeds to repay $6 million of Initial Notes. The transaction was tied to an April 29 amendment to its securities purchase agreement with Anson Funds.

The same filing says K Wave sold all of its Bitcoin holdings on May 6. It also says the company has not abandoned its treasury strategy, but has decided to halt it and focus on AI infrastructure. That shift puts its Bitcoin balance at zero after it once marketed itself as a Korean media company with a Bitcoin-backed treasury model.

Company once aimed for 10,000 BTC

K Wave’s exit marks a sharp turn from its July 2025 announcement. At the time, the company said it had secured $1 billion in total capital capacity through a $500 million convertible note agreement with Anson Funds and a $500 million standby equity purchase deal with Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

The company said it had completed an initial purchase of 88 BTC and planned to scale its holdings. 

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“Our objective is clear: to scale our holdings toward 10,000 Bitcoin as soon as possible,” said CEO Ted Kim.

The company also said at least 80% of net proceeds from the first Anson tranche had to be used to buy Bitcoin.

AI strategy replaces Bitcoin plan

K Wave later changed course. As previously reported, K Wave redirected up to $485 million from its Bitcoin treasury plan toward AI infrastructure, including data centers, GPU compute operations, and possible acquisitions. Its shares fell about 25% after that update.

The SEC filing adds more detail to that pivot. K Wave said it has started a strategic transformation toward AI infrastructure and is pursuing data centers, GPU clusters, AI cloud platforms, power systems, cooling systems, and related technology assets. The company also expects shareholders to consider the planned sale of Play Company and the disposal of its Solaire stake.

K Wave is also dealing with Nasdaq compliance issues. The filing says Nasdaq notified the company in January that its shares failed to meet the $1 minimum bid rule. Nasdaq sent another notice in June after the company failed to meet the required $15 million market value of publicly held shares.

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Treasury firms face wider pressure

K Wave’s move adds to stress across the digital asset treasury sector. As crypto.news reported, Sequans sold half of its Bitcoin as debt pressure tested its treasury plan. That report also cited K Wave’s earlier Bitcoin-to-AI shift as another case of public firms rethinking BTC reserves.

The wider model has also come under review. Crypto.news explained that Bitcoin treasury companies often depend on investor demand, share premiums, and access to fresh capital. When those conditions weaken, debt and dilution can make the structure harder to maintain.

Previously, crypto.news reported that Strive’s Ben Werkman warned that a long Bitcoin downturn could force some treasury firms to restructure, especially those that relied on convertible debt. K Wave’s sale shows how a company can move from an aggressive BTC target to debt repayment and a new business focus within one year.

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Analyst Flags Risk of Further BTC Declines After Worst June Since 2022

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin ended June at $58,526, sliding 20.5% over the month and recording its weakest monthly performance since June 2022. The retreat left the flagship cryptocurrency trading below its 200-week moving average near $62,000, but still above a key on-chain valuation metric known as realized price (around $52,000), a configuration that some analysts interpret as a warning that the market may not have reached a full bear-market bottom.

Crypto analyst PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow pricing model, argued that this price positioning matters because previous bear-market troughs occurred below realized price. In a post shared this week, PlanB said the setup suggests Bitcoin’s downside could continue, potentially revisiting the realized-price area and beyond.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s June close at $58,526 placed it below the 200-week moving average (about $62,000) while remaining above realized price (~$52,000).
  • PlanB says earlier bear-market bottoms formed below realized price, implying the market may still be searching for its bottom.
  • Analysts at Bitrue Research Institute and Bitget Wallet both described the June-to-$60,000 region as a developing bottom zone, but with risk of further drawdowns.
  • Benjamin Cowen suggested Bitcoin may see a cycle-bottom window tied to the US midterm election year, historically aligning with accumulation phases in 2018 and 2022.

Why June’s “in-between” level is drawing attention

PlanB’s argument centers on what he views as the relationship between price and realized price during bear markets. According to the stock-to-flow analyst, Bitcoin’s historical bear-market bottoms have not simply arrived after price fell below major moving averages; they also tended to appear after price moved to levels beneath realized price.

In earlier posts, PlanB highlighted that if Bitcoin breaks down below realized price, it would align with that prior pattern. He referenced the possibility that Bitcoin could fall to $52,000, which would correspond closely with realized price.

From an investor perspective, this distinction can be important because realized price is often used as an on-chain proxy for the average cost basis of coins in circulation. When market price trades above realized price, the market may still be able to bounce; when it slips below, the distribution of holders’ costs versus current valuations tends to become more unfavorable, which can prolong bearish conditions.

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Realized price explained—and what it signals

Realized price is calculated by valuing all Bitcoin outputs (typically discussed in terms of unspent transaction output or UTXO cohorts) at the price when each coin last moved on-chain. The result is an aggregate measure of the average acquisition price for the existing supply.

Because realized price reflects holder cost basis, it is frequently used to identify potential support areas during downtrends. The idea is that when price is substantially below realized levels, the market is effectively pricing Bitcoin below what many holders paid when they last moved coins, which can coincide with capitulation phases and supply shakeouts.

Against that backdrop, June’s outcome—still above realized price but no longer above the 200-week moving average—has led analysts to frame the current range as transitional rather than conclusive.

Analysts see a bottom developing, but not confirmed

Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s June close carried a signal consistent with prior cycles. He said the month’s finish above realized price but below the 200-week moving average “signals the bear bottom is still ahead per prior cycles.”

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Adziima added that he is watching for a potential capitulation period in late 2026 before a subsequent move higher—while also arguing that the decline could be shallower this cycle due to the role of institutions.

Meanwhile, Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, characterized the current consolidation around $60,000 as an area that may be approaching a bottom. She told Cointelegraph that if further downside occurs, the market could build “strong historical and technical support” around $55,000.

Taken together, these views reflect a common tension in market bottoms: technical indicators and on-chain benchmarks can both suggest stabilization, yet neither can confirm capitulation has fully played out. In this case, the “middle” positioning—between the 200-week moving average and realized price—is leaving room for additional volatility before a more durable floor forms.

Cycle-bottom theory tied to US midterms

Beyond on-chain valuation levels, some analysts are also looking at macro calendar effects. ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen speculated that Bitcoin may see a cycle bottom this year, pointing to the fact that it is a US midterm election year.

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Cowen argued that the second half of midterm years often marks an accumulation zone and a market cycle bottom, noting that such timing previously coincided with bear market bottoms in 2018 and 2022. The next US midterms are scheduled for Nov. 3, with all House of Representatives seats and about a third of Senate seats up for election.

While this framing is not the same as a realized-price breakdown model, it can influence how traders time risk—particularly when they treat the calendar as a factor that shapes liquidity and positioning. Investors watching this thesis would likely focus on whether Bitcoin’s downtrend stabilizes into accumulation rather than continuing to grind toward or below realized price.

For now, the key takeaway from all perspectives is that June’s close did not neatly resolve the debate. Bitcoin is weak enough to be below its long-term trend proxy, but it has not yet fallen to the on-chain valuation zone that PlanB says has marked prior trough formation.

Traders and long-term holders will likely watch whether Bitcoin can hold above realized price around $52,000 and whether weakness extends toward $55,000 support. The market’s next step—whether it stabilizes into accumulation or breaks below realized valuation—may determine if this is merely consolidation or the start of a more complete bear-market bottom.

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ENS Community Member Proposes Dissolving DAO After Founder Blocks Security Council Renewal

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ENS Community Member Proposes Dissolving DAO After Founder Blocks Security Council Renewal


Christoph Jentzsch proposed on X that ENS DAO dissolve itself rather than continue operating under what he called a broken governance structure. "As it seems, the ENS DAO is broken," he wrote. "I would propose turning this into a win, by actually dissolving it. Its goals have been accomplished, the… Read the full story at The Defiant

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