Crypto is turning into a “contrarian bet” as institutional investors are being drawn to artificial intelligence stocks, says Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.

“The crypto market is brutal right now,” Hougan wrote in a market note on Tuesday. “One major reason is that crypto is no longer the belle of the ball. AI stocks, robotics companies, SpaceX … who needs crypto when the Nasdaq-100 is up 43% year-over-year?”

“With AI sucking all the oxygen out of the room, crypto is being forced to go through a painful metamorphosis: from momentum trade to contrarian bet.”

Stocks linked to companies involved in AI have skyrocketed as the technology has captured investor attention after OpenAI launched ChatGPT to the public in late 2022. Shares in Nvidia, which makes computing components key to AI, have gained nearly 1,500% since ChatGPT’s launch.

Hougan argued that contrarian bets can be great investments, but their payoff pattern is “usually spotty.”

“Momentum investments are fun. They surf along waves of excitement. Contrarian bets, by comparison, are a grind, requiring patience, a long-term orientation, and a focus on fundamentals,” he added.

“Investors still believe in crypto, but now that it’s a contrarian bet, they favor fundamentals over vibes.”

LVRG Research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph that while AI continues to dominate institutional portfolios, “crypto is quietly emerging as the true contrarian bet for sophisticated investors seeking directional upside in a maturing market.” 

“This shift away from hype toward fundamentals is being fueled by real adoption metrics, regulatory clarity, and on-chain utility rather than speculative bets.” 

Related: Bitcoin losses by holder cohort hit new highs: Will traders defend $60K?

Hougan said that this bear market is different because, unlike past crypto cycles where Bitcoin was the safe haven, money is moving into smaller assets with strong fundamentals such as Hyperliquid, Zcash and Stellar.

This is how the contrarian bet is playing out, he said. “When crypto stops being a momentum trade, fundamentals start to matter — and this rotation is proof it’s already underway.”

Hougan also argued that it is a sign that we are closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning. 

“In the heart of a crypto winter, everything’s red. When the green starts to look like real growth, the season is changing.”

That bear market end seems a long way off at the moment, with markets dumping a further 5.3% on the day, sending total market capitalization down to $2.38 trillion, 46% below its October peak.

Total crypto capitalization tanks to a two-month low. Source: TradingView

Magazine: Big Questions: Do we really only need 2–5 cryptocurrencies?

Brazil’s central bank has added mandatory independent audits to the licensing approval process for crypto service providers in the country.

According to the published rules cited in the report, crypto firms applying for authorization, or renewing an existing license, must submit an independent auditor’s report as part of their regulatory filing. The rules state that the audit must be carried out by professionals registered with Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários.

Brazil adds audit requirement for crypto licenses

Under the new requirement, auditors will review whether crypto service providers have key compliance systems in place before the central bank grants authorization. The report said those checks will cover anti-money laundering controls, counter-terrorism financing procedures, customer asset segregation, internal risk management, and employee compliance programs.

Firms that fail those checks could face difficulty securing approval to operate, according to the same report. For crypto platforms already active in Brazil, the added review means licensing will now depend on outside verification of internal controls, not just documents submitted directly to the regulator.

The central bank has not released the expected audit costs. Compliance experts cited in the report said independent reviews can cost tens of thousands of dollars, and larger reviews may run into hundreds of thousands of dollars, depending on transaction volume, custody arrangements, and company size.

Smaller platforms face higher compliance pressure

Large exchanges may be able to absorb the new cost, according to the report, but smaller crypto platforms and startups could face a heavier burden. The added expense comes as Brazil continues to build a more demanding rulebook for virtual asset firms.

Brazil approved its first legal framework for virtual assets in 2022. One year later, the federal government appointed the central bank as the main regulator for crypto service providers, giving the institution a central role in licensing and supervision.

In 2025, watchdogs added licensing rules covering custody standards, anti-money laundering controls, stablecoin oversight, and corporate governance obligations. The authority also gave existing providers until October 2026 to comply with the new framework.

Brazil expands crypto rulebook

The latest audit rule adds another layer to a framework that already covers licensing, custody, Travel Rule compliance, stablecoin supervision, and self-hosted wallet monitoring, according to the report.

For global crypto exchanges, Brazil remains an important market despite the added rules. A Chainalysis report cited in the story said Brazil processed about $318 billion in crypto transactions in 2024 and 2025, placing the country among the world’s major digital asset markets.

The rule change has arrived during a weaker period for the global crypto market. The report said Bitcoin fell more than 10% over seven days and traded at $68,960 at press time.

XRP keeps finding bullish narratives underneath the surface, but price keeps ignoring them. Exchange balances are shrinking, ETF money is still coming into crypto, and Binance inflows have slowed sharply.

None of that stopped XRP from losing another support level this week, which is usually a sign that technical selling is overwhelming longer-term accumulation.

News Background

• More than 25 million XRP left exchanges in recent days, reducing the amount of readily available supply for sale.

• Binance inflows fell to their lowest levels of 2026, a trend that would normally be supportive for prices over longer timeframes.

• Crypto investment products continued attracting fresh capital, with roughly $1.42 billion flowing into spot ETFs during the period.

Price Action Summary

• XRP dropped from $1.2712 to $1.2026 during the 24-hour session, losing more than 5%.

• The decisive move came during the June 2 14:00 UTC session, when volume surged to 205.7 million and pushed price through support at $1.25.

• XRP later fell as low as $1.1858 before recovering modestly and stabilizing near the $1.20 area into the close.

Technical Analysis

• The key story is that XRP is no longer reacting positively to bullish supply data. That’s often what happens late in downtrends, when traders focus more on price action than fundamentals.

• The breakdown below $1.25 shifted that level from support into resistance, meaning any recovery attempt now faces overhead selling pressure.

• The bounce from below $1.19 showed signs of short-term seller exhaustion, but follow-through buying remained weak.

• XRP remains trapped inside a broader descending structure, with lower highs continuing to define the trend.

What traders should watch

• $1.20-$1.21 is now the most important support zone on the chart. Losing it would expose the $1.13-$1.15 area.

• $1.25 becomes the first recovery level bulls need to reclaim before sentiment can improve.

• The market is now caught between weakening supply on exchanges and deteriorating price action. Until one of those signals wins out, traders are likely to remain cautious.

TLDR:

• 160 former security and intelligence officials publicly backed the Clarity Act before Senate review.
• The proposal expands AML, sanctions, and compliance duties across key crypto market participants.
• Treasury would lead a new information-sharing program targeting digital asset crime risks.
• Supporters say the bill increases enforcement tools without limiting existing criminal authorities.

A group of 160 former national security, intelligence, and law enforcement officials has urged the U.S. Senate to advance the Clarity Act. The push adds national security backing to one of the most closely watched crypto market structure bills in Washington. 

Supporters argue the proposal would strengthen oversight while expanding enforcement tools across digital asset markets. The letter targets Senate leadership as lawmakers continue debating the future of crypto regulation in the United States.

Clarity Act Support Centers on Crypto Oversight and Enforcement

The officials outlined their position in a letter released through the Blockchain Association on June 3. They addressed the document to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer.

According to the letter, digital asset activity continues to expand globally and increasingly crosses multiple jurisdictions. The signatories argued that the United States should keep that activity under domestic regulatory oversight rather than allowing it to move offshore.

They said a federal framework could improve visibility for investigators and strengthen enforcement efforts against financial crime. The group also stated that regulatory clarity would help law enforcement agencies track illicit activity more effectively.

The letter highlighted several provisions included in the Clarity Act. Among them are expanded Bank Secrecy Act and sanctions compliance obligations for digital commodity brokers, dealers, and exchanges.

The proposal would also create a Treasury-led information-sharing pilot program involving agencies such as the Department of Justice, FBI, and DEA. The initiative would focus on illicit finance threats and emerging risks tied to digital assets.

Clarity Act Provisions Expand AML and National Security Measures

The signatories pointed to additional measures designed to strengthen anti-money laundering controls. These include broader suspicious activity reporting requirements and customer due diligence obligations for certain non-decentralized finance trading protocols.

The legislation would establish a permanent interagency working group involving Treasury, DOJ, DHS, FBI, DEA, IRS, and the Secret Service. That group would develop future anti-money laundering and counter-illicit finance proposals for digital assets.

Other provisions address digital asset kiosks through transaction monitoring requirements, reporting obligations, transaction limits, and law enforcement contact procedures. The bill also seeks to clarify sanctions compliance expectations for distributed ledger messaging systems through Treasury guidance.

According to the letter, the Clarity Act would extend Section 311 special measures authorities to digital asset activity and allow temporary holds on suspicious transactions. It would also require law enforcement notification in specific circumstances and reinforce compliance with lawful court orders.

The officials stressed that the legislation does not reduce enforcement authority. They argued that existing powers covering fraud, money laundering, sanctions evasion, terrorism financing, trafficking, and other crimes would remain unchanged under the proposed framework.

Blockchain Association shared the letter publicly, describing the Clarity Act as a framework that could strengthen coordination, compliance, and accountability across crypto markets while keeping oversight within U.S. jurisdiction.

Ripple Expands Its Washington Policy Presence

Ripple has expanded its presence in Washington, D.C., as U.S. crypto policy enters a decisive stage. The company opened a larger downtown office to support deeper engagement with policymakers and regulators. The move also strengthens Ripple’s push for clear rules around digital assets, payments, and blockchain finance.

Ripple said the new office will serve as a central base for its U.S. policy work. The company plans to use the space for meetings with lawmakers, regulators, and industry groups. Therefore, the expansion gives Ripple a stronger position inside the country’s main policy center.

The office opening comes as Congress reviews major crypto legislation. Lawmakers continue to debate market structure rules, stablecoin oversight, and payment modernization. These debates could define how digital asset firms operate across the United States.

Ripple has spent years calling for clear and workable crypto regulation. The company argues that policy should protect consumers and support responsible innovation. However, it also says unclear rules can push blockchain activity outside the United States.

The company’s legal history gives the move added weight. Ripple fought a long case with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over XRP sales. As a result, the firm became one of the most visible crypto companies in U.S. regulatory debates.

Ripple’s chief legal officer, Stuart Alderoty, has often supported direct engagement with public officials. The company now wants to build policy with regulators rather than work around them. That approach fits its wider effort to shape rules through formal channels.

The Washington office also supports Ripple’s broader business strategy. The company develops blockchain products for cross-border payments, custody, and liquidity services. Therefore, U.S. regulatory clarity could affect both its domestic plans and global partnerships.

XRP and RLUSD Remain Central to Ripple’s Strategy

XRP remains closely linked to Ripple’s payment and liquidity operations. The token supports parts of Ripple’s broader network for faster value transfer. However, Ripple continues to separate its enterprise services from wider market speculation around XRP.

The company also promotes RLUSD as part of its stablecoin push. RLUSD gives Ripple another product for settlement, payments, and digital dollar transactions. Moreover, stablecoins have become a major focus in U.S. policy discussions.

Ripple’s mention of RLUSD highlights its move beyond XRP-related services. The company now competes in a market where stablecoins connect crypto platforms with traditional finance. This makes regulation more important for its next phase of growth.

The launch of RLUSD in Turkey adds a global angle to the Washington announcement. Ripple continues to expand in overseas markets while increasing its U.S. policy presence. That balance shows how the firm wants both regulatory access and international reach.

Stablecoin rules remain one of the most active areas in Washington. Lawmakers want stronger standards for reserves, disclosures, issuers, and redemption rights. Ripple’s expanded office could help it participate directly in those discussions.

The company also sees blockchain as part of payments modernization. Faster settlement, lower transfer costs, and stronger infrastructure remain key industry goals. As a result, Ripple wants policymakers to treat blockchain as financial infrastructure, not only speculation.

Crypto Regulation Takes Center Stage in Washington

The broader crypto sector faces a major policy year in the United States. Congress has advanced discussions around the CLARITY Act and other digital asset measures. These proposals aim to define agency roles and reduce legal uncertainty.

Ripple’s expansion signals that major crypto firms expect more direct rulemaking ahead. Companies want clearer guidance before launching more products across payments and capital markets. Meanwhile, regulators continue to assess risks tied to consumer protection and market integrity.

The new office gives Ripple a stronger platform during these talks. It also shows that the company wants a lasting role in U.S. crypto policy. Therefore, the Washington expansion places Ripple closer to the rules shaping digital finance.

Modern artificial intelligence-powered robots are impressive in their capabilities, but are still years away from replacing humans as they can’t yet adapt to changing conditions, researchers say. 

Last month, AI robotics company Figure showcased its humanoid robots performing basic tasks, such as cleaning a room, but a series of robots working for nine days straight sorting packages sparked conversation about how soon robots could replace jobs. 

Oliver Obst, an associate professor of robotics at the Australia based University of New South Wales, told Cointelegraph that repetitive jobs such as physical work in structured environments are currently most at risk of being replaced by robots, while administrative and document-processing tasks could be replaced by AI.

There has been growing concern that AI and robots will replace people in jobs as technology advances. A report in May from workforce consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas found that US companies have laid off an estimated 49,135 people in 2026 due to AI.

A group of Figure’s robots worked for nine days straight sorting packages. Source: Figure 

However, Obst said that humanoid robots are unlikely to see a mass rollout soon because they don’t appear to be more efficient or less error-prone than current robotic manufacturing methods.

“Even in relatively structured settings, they still face problems with reliability, speed, safety, cost, and recovery from unexpected situations,” he said. “The harder the environment is to control, the harder the robotics problem becomes. Most human jobs involve more variation and more judgment than the package-sorting demonstration.”

“I would not say we are at the point of mass replacement by humanoid robots. We are much closer to the selective automation of some tasks. AI software is moving faster and is already affecting some forms of information work, but physical robots still have a much harder problem to solve.”

In another video in May, a human worker managed to sort more packages compared to a team of Figure’s robots, which swapped out when needing a recharge. Figure CEO Brett Adock said it would be the last time “a human will ever win.”

Source: Brett Adock

People still better than bots in some areas 

Markus Levin, co-founder of decentralized data network XYO, said AI models and automation software can perform repetitive tasks with far greater consistency and endurance than humans; however, robots still require charging, maintenance and supervision.

A report in September from the International Federation of Robotics found that global demand for factory robots has doubled over the last decade, with warehouses and logistics among the fastest-growing areas of adoption.

“I believe broad human replacement is still likely years away,” Levin added, “Reliability, safety, regulation, infrastructure costs, and trust remain major barriers to full-scale deployment across society. The challenge is no longer simply making machines capable of acting but ensuring they can operate safely and reliably as they take on greater autonomy.”

Dr Francisco Cruz Naranjo, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales with a PhD in robotics, said the efficiency of robots compared to people depends heavily on the activity and the environment.

Related: ‘Developed ecosystem’ based on crypto has sprung up for AI agents: Report

“Robots are much better at repetitive tasks without the need for constant pauses, as showcased in the Figure livestream. However, in highly dynamic environments, robots still struggle to quickly adapt to changing conditions,” he said.

“Humans, in this case, are much better. This is precisely why robots at the moment are highly efficient in controlled environments, such as factories, but they have not yet succeeded widely in home settings.”

Naranjo said repetitive jobs performed in a less static setting are at risk of being replaced by robots, but it will depend on how quickly research advances and how quickly society adapts in areas like making spaces robot-friendly, which is likely years away.

Robots in society could be beneficial 

Naranjo and Obst said that a mass rollout of robots in the workforce could be of some benefit, such as improving work-life balance, increasing the workforce in areas with shortages, and addressing dangerous environments that are too risky for humans.

“The social question is harder. If robots make dangerous work cheaper in human terms, that can be good. But it can also have unintended consequences. For example, keeping humans out of harm’s way in military operations may save lives, but it could also lower the perceived cost of conflict,” Obst said. 

“Hypothetically, if we became very successful at automating almost all work, then society would need to rethink economies that are currently built around individual wages and employment.”

Magazine: Korea’s first memecoin rug-pull case, China’s crypto rules review: Asia Express

TapTools, a real-time analytics platform focused on Cardano, is winding down after a wave of leadership changes, underscoring the fragility of niche tooling in a bear‑market ecosystem.

In a post on X, TapTools said it would begin winding down over the next two weeks after its fifth top-level executive departure. The company previously confirmed the exits of two co-founders, the chief operating officer and the chief technology officer earlier this year. The platform’s backend developer—who had been elevated to CTO to shepherd a shift toward more sustainable product delivery—also left, leaving a critical repository of knowledge that cannot be replaced overnight.

Launched in 2022, TapTools grew to become one of Cardano’s most widely used tools for tracking token prices, DeFi activity, and discovering new projects. Its closure comes as JPG.Store, a Cardano-based NFT marketplace, permanently shut down on May 23. The wind-down also intersects with governance and funding frictions within Cardano’s ecosystem, including the Cardano Foundation’s decision to cancel its annual conference after a revised funding proposal to use treasury tokens was rejected. TapTools cited the economics of running the platform as a core factor, saying infrastructure, development, and support costs are real and operate at scale.

Infrastructure costs are real. Development costs are real. Support costs are real. Operating a platform that serves the ecosystem at scale is expensive.

TapTools said it remains open to acquisition or external funding as a possible route to continue operations, but the immediate plan is to wind down.

Key takeaways

• TapTools will wind down over the next two weeks after its fifth top-level executive departure, adding to leadership instability within Cardano-focused tooling.
• The exodus includes two co-founders, the chief operating officer, and the chief technology officer; the backend developer who became CTO also exited, leaving a critical knowledge gap.
• The company cites the real costs of infrastructure, development, and support as a core reason for the wind-down, arguing that operating at scale is expensive.
• The decision comes amid broader ecosystem shifts, including JPG.Store’s shutdown and the Cardano Foundation’s conference cancellation following governance decisions on treasury funding.

Wind-down and ecosystem context

In its statement, TapTools framed the move as a consequence of ongoing leadership churn and the difficulty of preserving critical institutional knowledge required to run a Cardano analytics service responsibly. The platform described the departures as part of a broader pattern where institutions servicing Cardano’s ecosystem can struggle to maintain continuity without stable leadership and sustained funding.

The episode sits alongside other signals in Cardano’s ecosystem. The NFT marketplace JPG.Store shut down on May 23, echoing a trend of leaner operations in Cardano-native ventures. On governance, the Cardano Foundation announced the cancellation of its annual conference after governance decided against funding the event with treasury tokens, underscoring the friction between ambition and available funding mechanisms in the ecosystem.

TapTools’ leadership transition and wind-down are framed as a cost equation as much as a strategic pivot. The company emphasized that maintaining an analytics platform that serves the ecosystem at scale entails continuing investments in infrastructure, product development, and user support—costs that become hard to justify if revenue or funding is uncertain.

Broader reflections from Cardano’s founder and what readers should monitor

Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, weighed in via X, saying he anticipated that many protocols could fail under the current bear market and that he once proposed an index to help bail out struggling projects. The plan, he said, did not move forward, and he suggested governance could have helped some projects but chose not to act. These remarks frame TapTools’ wind-down as part of a wider question about how the Cardano ecosystem deploys funding and governance tools to support builders during downturns.

For investors and builders, the episode reinforces that even widely used, respected tools are susceptible to leadership gaps and funding constraints in a bear market. It also highlights the importance of robust, adaptable funding mechanisms and governance processes that can help prevent meaningful platforms from collapsing when cycles turn negative.

Looking forward, watchers should track whether TapTools and other Cardano-native services emerge from wind-downs through acquisitions, new funding rounds, or partnerships, and how governance policy evolves to support ongoing, sustainable operations in the ecosystem.

As the Cardano ecosystem recalibrates, all eyes will be on whether governance reforms and funding mechanisms can better shield essential tooling from bear-market cycles and leadership turnover, shaping which projects endure and which recede.

TLDR

• Palo Alto Networks shares rose 10% after the company beat fiscal third-quarter estimates.
• Revenue reached $3.00 billion, above Wall Street’s $2.94 billion expectation.
• Adjusted earnings came in at 85 cents per share, beating the 80-cent estimate.
• Palo Alto raised its fourth-quarter and full-year revenue guidance after the earnings beat.
• The company’s AI-focused acquisitions support its push into enterprise and agent security.

Palo Alto Networks shares rose 10% after the company beat Wall Street’s fiscal third-quarter estimates. The cybersecurity firm reported stronger revenue and adjusted earnings as AI-related threats lifted demand for security tools. The company also issued a stronger fourth-quarter outlook and raised its full-year revenue forecast.

Palo Alto Beats Wall Street Estimates

Palo Alto reported adjusted earnings of 85 cents per share for the fiscal third quarter. Analysts tracked by LSEG had expected adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share. Revenue reached $3.00 billion, topping the $2.94 billion estimate. The company recorded 31% revenue growth from the same period last year.

The quarter included $388 million from the CyberArk and Chronosphere acquisitions. These additions helped expand Palo Alto’s reported revenue base during the period. Palo Alto also reported a net loss of $177 million. That compares with the net income of $262 million in the year-earlier quarter.

The loss came to 22 cents per share under standard accounting. A year earlier, Palo Alto earned 37 cents per share. Shares rose 10% after the report as investors reacted to the earnings beat. The move followed weaker guidance in February that had lowered expectations.

Stronger Outlook Follows Rising AI Security Demand

Palo Alto issued fourth-quarter revenue guidance above Wall Street expectations. The company expects revenue between $3.35 billion and $3.36 billion. Analysts had expected fourth-quarter revenue of $3.28 billion. Palo Alto also lifted its full-year revenue forecast after the third-quarter beat.

The company now expects full-year revenue between $11.42 billion and $11.43 billion. The updated range came as AI-related security needs continued to support demand. CEO Nikesh Arora linked the demand environment to new AI threats. “The latest advancements at the AI frontier have increased the level of urgency around cybersecurity,” Arora stated.

He added that AI had reshaped the cybersecurity industry’s direction for the coming years. The company has also leaned into acquisitions to strengthen its product suite. Palo Alto shares have climbed more than 60% this year. The stock has gained over 80% during the current quarter.

Acquisitions Expand Palo Alto’s AI Security Push

As it was reported by Blockonomi, analysts project quarterly sales of $2.9 billion. They also expect adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share. Those projections reflect acquisition expenses and dilution from the CyberArk transaction. The final results came above those estimates on both revenue and adjusted earnings.

Palo Alto holds a market capitalization near $245 billion. Its 50-day moving average stands at $195.20, while its 200-day average stands at $184.31. The company has completed five AI-focused acquisitions over the past twelve months. The largest deal involved CyberArk, an identity security specialist, bought for about $25 billion.

CyberArk supports Palo Alto’s push into protecting AI agents inside company networks. These agents need permissions across email, documents, browsers, and other enterprise systems. Those permissions can create access risks without strong identity controls. Prompt injection attacks can also target AI systems connected to workplace tools.

Palo Alto also acquired KOI Security, Chronosphere, and Protect AI. The company also joined Anthropic’s Project Glasswing cybersecurity initiative. Anthropic opened its Mythos model testing program to 150 more partners on Tuesday. Palo Alto joined Project Glasswing as an early participant.

Bitcoin has drawn a new valuation argument from Bitwise, as rising sovereign debt pressures keep bond markets under strain and strengthen the case for BTC as a macro hedge.

Bitwise said in a new report that deeper investor concern over government debt could widen Bitcoin’s perceived undervaluation. The asset manager linked the argument to stress in global bond markets, where governments and companies face a much heavier borrowing calendar in 2026.

Bitwise links Bitcoin case to debt pressure

According to Bitwise, the OECD expects public and corporate borrowers to raise about $29 trillion in 2026. The estimate is 17% higher than 2024 levels and nearly twice the amount raised a decade earlier.

The report added that about 78% of OECD governments’ borrowing will go toward refinancing existing debt rather than funding new spending. Bitwise said this refinancing burden may raise investor concerns about sovereign balance sheets if yields remain elevated.

In that setting, Bitwise said Bitcoin could attract more attention from investors looking for assets outside government credit systems. The firm did not present the view as a direct price forecast, but it said the macro setup could improve Bitcoin’s hedge narrative.

Japan remains a key bond market test

Japan received special attention in the Bitwise report because of its high debt load and rising bond yields. Bitwise noted that Japan’s public debt stands at nearly 230% of GDP, placing it among the highest debt burdens of major economies.

The firm said Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently climbed to 2.78%, while its 30-year yield reached a record high. By Tuesday, Bitwise noted that the 10-year Japanese yield stood at 2.66%.

At the same time, Japanese investors hold around $1.2 trillion in US Treasurys, according to the report. Bitwise said higher yields at home now make foreign bonds less attractive after currency hedging costs.

The firm compared Japan’s 10-year yield of 2.66% with the 2.19% yield available on yen-hedged 10-year US Treasurys. Bitwise said this gap could encourage Japanese capital to return to domestic bonds.

US yields add to sovereign risk concerns

The report said the pressure is not limited to Japan. Bitwise noted that US 30-year Treasury yields reached 5.11% on May 11, the highest level since 2007.

Bitwise also cited sovereign risk premiums measured through 10-year swap spreads. The firm said those premiums have risen to their highest levels since the European debt crisis of 2011 and 2012.

While Bitwise said tighter financial conditions may weigh on Bitcoin in the short run, it also said a serious disruption in the bond market could force central banks to provide liquidity. Under that scenario, the firm said Bitcoin could benefit if investors expect fiat liquidity to rise again.

Bitcoin fair value model reaches $224,000

Bitwise cited investor Greg Foss’s sovereign default risk model, which values Bitcoin near $224,000 if it gains wider use as a hedge against government credit risk. The firm stressed that this figure is theoretical and not a formal price target.

The report also said Bitcoin’s path will depend partly on real interest rates, which Bitwise calculated as the Fed Funds rate minus US CPI inflation. Bitwise said Bitcoin performed well during the 2021 bull market as real rates fell, while the 2022 bear market coincided with rising real rates amid aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin researcher Sminston said BTC could trade between $90,000 and $255,000 by the end of 2026. Sminston based the estimate on the Bitcoin Decay Channel, a logarithmic model that tracks past cycle tops and bottoms.

The crypto sell-off is worsening as stock markets continue to inch higher every day.

Bitcoin BTC$66,351.65 plunged to a low of $65,708 in Asian morning trading on Wednesday, down 6.4% in 24 hours and 12.3% on the week, as a broad crypto market sell-off accelerated overnight against the sharpest possible backdrop of global equity strength.

Ether (ETH) broke below $1,900 to $1,839, marking a 7.9% drop in 24 hours and lifting the second-largest cryptocurrency’s weekly decline to 11.1%. Solana’s SOL fell 9.0% to $73.25, BNB lost 7.8% to $636, DOGE$0.09236 slid 8.3% to $0.0921 and Tron’s TRX shed 3.4% to $0.3297, per CoinDesk data.

BTC traded near $66,280 by Wednesday morning after touching the $65,708 24-hour low, with the range stretching $5,200 from the $70,907 high.

Global stocks set fresh all-time highs as the AI trade intensified, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallying almost 6% to a record on Tuesday and Tokyo Electron and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing both reaching new peaks, Bloomberg reported.

The MSCI All Country World Index set a fresh all-time high on the AI rally that has dominated stocks all year.

SpaceX was reported to be seeking $135 a share for a $75 billion initial public offering, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures held little changed near record levels. South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.

The crypto sell-off compounds a week of bearish news, starting with Strategy’s (MSTR) first publicized bitcoin sale on Monday, an ongoing record spot bitcoin ETF outflow streak through Tuesday that has crossed $3.2 billion, Mt. Gox’s $739 million transfer to a new wallet on Tuesday, and stalled U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations that have kept Brent crude rising for a third straight day on fresh Middle East fighting.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE remained the lone green outlier in the top 10 by market value, holding a 19.9% weekly gain at $71.98 despite a 3.1% decline in the past 24 hours.

BTC’s $65,000 level is the immediate technical anchor. A break below brings $60,000 into focus, while a hold opens the door to a relief bounce as overleveraged positioning gets flushed.