Crypto World
Bitcoin Signals Broad Risk-Off Amid Market Pressure
Bitcoin’s latest price action may illuminate something bigger than a routine risk-off move: it underscores how liquidity conditions and macro forces influence the crypto market ahead of traditional assets. According to Bitwise, BTC often serves as a “canary in the macro coal mine,” reacting to shifts in liquidity and financial conditions before equities do. With stock indices under pressure and rate expectations shifting, Bitcoin’s slide fits a broader narrative about how crypto assets are pricing in the evolving liquidity backdrop.
The latest market snapshot shows BTC and Ether at the low end of their cycles, with BTC at around the $58,000 mark and Ether near $1,507, as global risk assets came under renewed strain. The Nasdaq endured its sharpest daily decline in months, while South Korea’s KOSPI triggered a temporary trading halt after a semiconductor-led sell-off. In the background, stronger-than-expected US labor data dampened expectations for rapid Federal Reserve easing, keeping the 10-year US Treasury yield anchored around the mid-4% range and complicating the path for growth-sensitive assets. Bitwise notes that the yield held near 4.53% after a peak near 4.68% last month, signaling that higher-for-longer rate expectations remain a key driver of market mood.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin and Ethereum touched cycle lows of about $58,000 and $1,507 as broad risk assets faced renewed pressure.
- BTC is described as a macro canary, often weakening ahead of equities when liquidity tightens, signaling a broader risk-off adjustment in markets.
- On-chain indicators show a possible supply of buying power on the sidelines: the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI sits near an oversold reading of 13, implying substantial stablecoins relative to Bitcoin value.
- Exchange reserves for major stablecoins remain elevated, near $72 billion (USDT ~ $57.7B and USDC ~ $12B), suggesting dry powder even as BTC trades near the lower end of recent ranges.
- The overall liquidity backdrop remains mixed: global M2 liquidity sits around $122.6 trillion, hinting at an ongoing tension between expanded liquidity and tighter risk conditions.
Bitcoin as a macro signal and the liquidity puzzle
Bitwise’s analysis frames Bitcoin as a reliable early indicator of shifts in the macro regime. When liquidity tightens, BTC tends to weaken ahead of equities, a pattern that has shown up again as the market digests stronger U.S. labor news and higher-for-longer rate expectations. The implication for traders is not a binary punt on crypto weakness, but a more nuanced read on how liquidity cycles shape risk appetite across asset classes. As Bitwise notes, BTC’s liquidity-driven movement contrasts with traditional markets that move more gradually, given their hours-long trading cycles and broader asset bases. This dynamic suggests that Bitcoin could be pricing in a slower, more protracted adjustment if liquidity conditions remain constrained, even if equities later stabilize.
Linked to this view is the interaction between on-chain signals and macro data. The observed price action sits within a broader context of rising global liquidity in another sense—the on-chain metrics show a potential cushion for buying activity that could re-enter the market when liquidity loosens. If Bitcoin historically weakens in advance of risk assets but is supported by a backstop of stablecoins ready to deploy, traders may watch for signs of renewed appetite as policy and liquidity evolve. The question now is whether the current balance between on-chain liquidity signals and macro constraints marks a temporary pause or the onset of a longer adjustment phase.
Stablecoin liquidity signals and what they imply
On-chain analytics provide a contrasting lens to price moves. Independent analyst Maartunn highlighted the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI, which has slipped to an oversold reading of 13. The SSR compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the market value of major stablecoins, such as Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC. A lower SSR RSI indicates a larger stablecoin balance relative to BTC’s price, implying substantial buying power waiting on the sidelines. Historically, similar SSR RSI readings have tended to accompany accumulation phases, followed by periods of stronger price performance once liquidity returns to the market.
That on-chain signal sits alongside another liquidity barometer: exchange reserves. Collectively, the major stablecoins on exchanges total around $72 billion, with roughly $57.7 billion in USDT and about $12 billion in USDC. While this total has eased from late-2025 peaks above $80 billion, it remains well above historical norms, indicating a sizable pool of liquidity that could be deployed if price action turns favorable. In practice, this “dry powder” can give market participants confidence that there is material capacity to support a rebound should macro conditions permit.
Taken together, these metrics offer a more nuanced view of a market that has already repriced significantly. The SSR RSI’s oversold reading hints at potential buying pressure building beneath the surface, while elevated stablecoin reserves suggest the capacity for a rapid liquidity re-entry if risk appetite improves. The key question for traders is not whether BTC will continue to drift lower in a risk-off regime, but at what point on the scale the liquidity backdrop shifts enough to spark renewed interest from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.
Global liquidity backdrop and the path forward
Beyond crypto-specific dynamics, the broader macro backdrop remains a mixture of expansion and constraint. Global M2 liquidity stands around $122.6 trillion, a figure that has trended upward over the past year. The tension between expanding liquidity and a higher-for-longer rate environment creates a complex interplay for crypto assets: liquidity expansion tends to support risk-taking during disinflationary periods, while persistent rate yields and liquidity constraints can cap upside for sensitive assets like Bitcoin and equities. The divergence between on-chain signals and macro metrics suggests that BTC’s next move could hinge on a shift in policy expectations or a late-cycle improvement in liquidity conditions rather than a straightforward reaction to price movements alone.
For market participants, the current configuration means watching two closely related channels: how the macro cycle evolves in terms of policy stance and liquidity, and how on-chain indicators respond to that evolution. If SSR RSI readings begin to climb and exchange reserves remain robust or increase further, complacency could give way to a fresh round of volatility as traders position for an eventual liquidity upturn. Conversely, if macro data continues to push yields higher and liquidity remains tight, Bitcoin may remain in a prolonged drift as risk assets absorb the new rate paradigm.
What investors should watch next
As the market digests recent data and the liquidity narrative evolves, several watchpoints emerge. First, the path of US monetary policy and expectations for rate cuts or further tightening will be a primary driver of risk sentiment. Second, on-chain signals such as the SSR RSI and stablecoin reserve levels will continue to offer early hints about where demand could re-emerge. Third, the performance of major risk assets—especially the Nasdaq and tech equities—will test whether BTC’s macro-caninara role remains valid or if equities find a bottom that reduces BTC’s sensitivity to liquidity shifts.
In the near term, investors should consider how new liquidity enters the market. A rebound in risk appetite could materialize if stablecoins remain available and if on-chain liquidity signals align with a broader improvement in macro conditions. On the other hand, persistent rate persistence or liquidity constraints could keep Bitcoin in a cautious trading range until there is clearer evidence of a policy shift or a sustained improvement in macro fundamentals.
As Bitwise frames it, Bitcoin’s behavior is a telling barometer, not a standalone predictor. Its price path in coming weeks will likely reflect a confluence of liquidity dynamics, macro data, and the readiness of market participants to deploy capital from stablecoin reserves back into risk assets.
The story remains dynamic, and readers should stay tuned for any shifts in liquidity signals, on-chain metrics, or macro developments that could tilt the balance toward renewed risk-taking or a deeper risk-off stance.
Michael Saylor has pushed back against dilution concerns after Strategy sold approximately $181 million worth of MSTR shares and used part of the proceeds to expand both its Bitcoin holdings and cash reserves.
Summary
- Michael Saylor rejected dilution claims tied to Strategy’s $181M MSTR share sale.
- Strategy added 1,550 BTC and increased cash reserves by $100 million.
- Fortune warned about rising obligations and risks if Bitcoin falls further.
According to comments posted by Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor on X, criticism surrounding the company’s latest capital raise misunderstands how shareholder value should be measured.
Saylor’s response came after Bitcoin analyst Matthew R. Kratter argued that recent share issuance diluted existing shareholders and pointed to a decline in Strategy’s BTC Yield metric between June 1 and June 8.
Data published by Strategy showed the company held 843,706 BTC while its assumed diluted shares outstanding increased to 384,180 during the period. Referring to those figures, Kratter said on X that the increase in shares outweighed the short-term benefit of additional Bitcoin per share.
Fresh scrutiny followed Strategy’s June 8 filing, which disclosed the sale of more than 1.4 million MSTR shares for roughly $181 million. Market participants also noted that company executives sold around $15 million worth of MSTR stock for tax-related purposes, while sentiment had already been pressured by Strategy’s disclosure of its first Bitcoin sale in more than four years at the end of May.
Saylor disputed the dilution argument by stating that BTC Yield measures growth in Bitcoin per share rather than total shareholder accretion. In his response, he said Strategy added both Bitcoin and cash during the transaction, making the outcome positive for shareholders when both assets are considered.
“Last week Strategy added ₿1,550 of BTC and $100 million of USD Reserve. When both assets are included, the transaction was accretive to MSTR shareholders.”
Strategy points to cash reserves alongside Bitcoin growth
Figures released by the company show Strategy acquired 1,550 BTC for approximately $101.3 million between June 1 and June 7. The purchase was completed at an average price of $65,332 per Bitcoin during a period of heavy market volatility.
Company disclosures indicate Strategy now holds 845,256 BTC, which Saylor said are valued at roughly $51.9 billion based on current market prices. The company also reported a year-to-date BTC Yield of 12.8% and a BTC Gain of 86,328 BTC.
At the same time, the latest fundraising increased Strategy’s dollar reserves by $100 million, lifting total cash reserves to about $1 billion. Those reserves have attracted additional attention following shareholder approval of a proposal to change STRC preferred stock dividend payments from a monthly schedule to semi-monthly distributions beginning this month.
Rising obligations remain a focus for analysts
A separate analysis published by Fortune has highlighted concerns about Strategy’s growing use of preferred stock and Bitcoin-backed financing. According to the publication, the company’s combined debt and preferred stock obligations have increased from approximately $6.9 billion in early 2025 to around $21.8 billion, with preferred stock issuances accounting for much of the increase.
Fortune also estimated that Strategy’s stock continues to trade roughly 31% above its net asset value and warned that the premium could come under pressure if Bitcoin prices fall or investor concerns about the company’s capital structure intensify.
Under a scenario modeled by Fortune in which Bitcoin (BTC) declines to $50,000, the company’s net asset value could fall to about $23 billion while liabilities remain unchanged.
Attention has also remained on Strategy’s funding flexibility after the company disclosed the sale of 32 BTC for about $2.5 million in late May, its first reported Bitcoin sale since December 2022.
In a previous research covered by crypto.news, JPMorgan described the transaction as largely symbolic and said it appeared intended to demonstrate flexibility toward preferred shareholders, while cautioning that future dividend commitments could raise questions if cash reserves are eventually depleted.
TLDR
- Senator Elizabeth Warren questioned whether the CFTC can handle expanded crypto oversight.
- Warren said staffing cuts and reduced enforcement weaken the agency’s capacity.
- The CFTC workforce has reportedly declined by about 25% in recent years.
- Warren criticized the agency’s decision to back vacating the 2022 Gemini judgment.
- The CFTC concluded the Gemini complaint would not meet current enforcement standards.
Senator Elizabeth Warren has challenged the readiness of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as Congress weighs broader crypto oversight. She warned that staffing cuts and reduced enforcement could strain the agency. Her letter to Chair Michael Selig described the situation as a “recipe for disaster.”
CFTC Staffing and Enforcement Under Scrutiny
Warren sent the letter on Friday as lawmakers advanced legislation expanding CFTC authority over crypto and prediction markets. She argued the agency lacks the capacity to manage wider responsibilities under current conditions.
She wrote that a smaller workforce and fewer enforcement actions weaken oversight. Warren cited reports that staff levels have fallen by about 25%.
Warren also pointed to a decline in enforcement since President Donald Trump took office. She said the trend raises concerns about the agency’s ability to police complex crypto firms.
In her letter, Warren stated, “A CFTC with fewer staff members, reduced enforcement activity, and expanded responsibilities is a recipe for disaster.” She asked Selig to explain how the agency would handle expanded duties.
Warren further questioned internal decisions affecting oversight priorities. She requested records on staff reassignments and communications with industry participants.
She also asked for documents covering contacts between the CFTC and crypto firms regarding the Clarity Act. The request included communications with prediction market platforms.
Disputes Over Crypto and Prediction Markets
Warren referenced the agency’s recent handling of cases involving Gemini. She highlighted the CFTC’s decision to support vacating a 2022 judgment.
That case alleged Gemini made “false or misleading statements” in 2017 about bitcoin futures manipulation risks. The agency later concluded the complaint “should not have been filed.”
The CFTC said the case would not meet enforcement standards today. Warren questioned the reasoning behind that conclusion.
She also cited reports that officials who raised concerns about firms like Polymarket and Crypto.com left the agency. Warren asked whether internal pressure influenced those departures.
Selig has maintained that prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction.” However, several states argue that such platforms violate local gambling laws.
Those disputes have led the CFTC to sue states that attempted to block prediction market operations. Warren referenced those legal actions in her letter.
She requested details on communications between agency officials and prediction market companies. She also asked for records related to enforcement strategy shifts.
Congress continues to debate legislation that would expand CFTC oversight of crypto markets. Warren’s letter seeks further clarity on staffing, enforcement, and internal decision-making as those discussions proceed.
Token of Power suffered an exploit on Tuesday that drained more than $1.5 million from its liquidity pool. On-chain firms Blockaid, PeckShield, and Cyvers flagged the incident in posts on X.
- Token of Power lost 944.2 WETH, worth about $1.58 million, from its TOP/WETH Balancer V1 pool.
- Blockaid described the incident as a governance-takeover attack, while Cyvers traced the drain to the Balancer pool.
- PeckShield data showed the attacker later moved stolen funds into the Tornado Cash crypto mixer.
The attack targeted the TOP/WETH Balancer V1 Pool and drained 944.2 WETH.
TOP token exploit hits Balancer pool
Token of Power, also known as TOP, is an Ethereum-based ERC-20 token. The project operates under a DAO called The Mask of Power. The project built TOP around collective ownership of a specific MetaMask NFT. Its token also supported liquidity for the project’s market activity.
Cyvers said the attacker drained funds from the TOP/WETH Balancer V1 Pool. The pool held TOP tokens and Wrapped Ethereum under a 50-50 structure. Wrapped Ethereum, or WETH, represents ETH in a token format used across DeFi.
The Balancer V1 pool functioned as an automated trading vault for both assets. Blockaid described the incident as a “governance-takeover attack” in its X post. PeckShield and Cyvers also published alerts as the transaction activity became visible on-chain.
On-chain firms report 944.2 WETH loss
On-chain intelligence firms said the attacker added a large number of TOP tokens into the pool. The attacker then swapped those tokens against the pool’s real WETH reserves. The exploit drained 944.2 WETH, worth about $1.58 million at the time.
After the drain, the pool held heavily diluted TOP tokens. The incident left liquidity providers exposed to tokens with little market value. Further project details on recovery, compensation, or next steps remain unavailable.
PeckShield data showed the attacker later moved stolen funds into Tornado Cash. Tornado Cash is a crypto mixer that can make tracing funds more difficult. The movement to Tornado Cash followed the initial drain from the Balancer pool. Security firms have not yet published a complete technical report on the incident.
Exploit follows separate Humanity Protocol breach
The Token of Power incident came one day after another reported DeFi security breach. As it was reported by crypto.news, Humanity Protocol lost $36 million in user funds through an employee’s laptop breach. The two incidents affected different projects and used different reported attack paths.
However, both cases drew attention from blockchain security firms this week. The Humanity Protocol breach involved a digital identity project built on blockchain infrastructure. In contrast, the Token of Power exploit centered on a liquidity pool.
The TOP project has not yet released a full incident review in the provided details. More information about the attacker’s route and possible project response remains pending. Blockaid, PeckShield, and Cyvers continue to serve as the main cited sources for the incident. Their alerts identified the affected pool, the estimated loss, and the fund movement.
Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated U.S. prediction market leader, plans to require users to disclose their employer before trading certain sensitive contracts.
The change directly addresses rising concerns over insider trading tied to government and corporate information.
Rising Insider Risks Prompt Action
Prediction markets have seen explosive growth, with combined Kalshi and Polymarket volumes reaching record levels in recent months.
Yet this surge has amplified risks of trading on material non-public information (MNPI).
On March 24, 2026, the White House sent an internal email warning staff against using non-public government information on platforms including Kalshi.
In May 2026, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer launched a formal probe, sending letters to Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and his counterpart at Polymarket seeking details on user verification and suspicious activity monitoring.
Kalshi has responded aggressively. In the year leading to February 2026, it opened over 200 investigations into potential violations, resulting in public disciplinary actions.
These included fines and multi-year suspensions for a MrBeast video editor trading on upcoming content and multiple congressional candidates betting on their own races.
How the New Rule Works
Per an advisory committee recommendation, users will soon submit an online form disclosing their employer for markets with elevated MNPI risk, such as those tied to political outcomes, corporate events, or policy decisions.
According to WSJ, the rollout is expected in the coming weeks.
This builds on existing measures:
- Detailed onboarding screens for high-risk individuals (politicians, officials, athletes),
- Real-time trade surveillance with third-party partners,
- Account freezes during probes, and referrals to the CFTC and DOJ when warranted.
Kalshi’s CFTC-approved rules already ban trading with MNPI, as source-agency affiliates, or by those with outcome influence.
Edge Over Crypto Rivals
As a fully regulated exchange with mandatory KYC and fiat infrastructure, Kalshi’s enhanced controls reinforce its positioning for institutional and compliance-conscious participants.
The policy adds targeted friction for affected trades but signals stronger integrity amid Washington scrutiny, potentially attracting capital wary of looser offshore or crypto-native alternatives.
Details on exact triggering markets and enforcement will emerge soon via Kalshi’s rulebook and integrity hub.
With prediction market volumes continuing to climb and regulators watching closely, this step could influence industry standards for balancing innovation with safeguards.
Market participants and employers should review updated policies as implementation approaches.
The post White House Scrutiny Forces Kalshi Employer Disclosure Rule appeared first on BeInCrypto.
SBI Shinsei Bank will reportedly launch a service that rewards deposit customers with cryptocurrency exchange vouchers based on their account balances.
According to a Nikkei report, customers will receive vouchers equal to 20% of their interest payments, in addition to their yen-denominated interest. The vouchers can be exchanged for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) or XRP within a specified period.
Customers would need to open an account with SBI’s crypto exchange arm, SBI VC Trade, to redeem the vouchers.
The rollout turns a conventional savings product into a crypto on-ramp, potentially exposing mainstream bank customers to digital assets without requiring them to make direct purchases.
Ahead of the permanent launch, SBI Shinsei will reportedly run a three-month campaign starting Wednesday, covering ordinary deposits and time deposits ranging from three months to five years.
SBI expands crypto push across deposits, lending and investment products
The deposit-voucher service follows several crypto moves by SBI Group as the financial conglomerate prepares for broader digital asset adoption in Japan.
On March 18, SBI VC Trade launched a retail USDC lending service, allowing users to lend the stablecoin to the platform under fixed-term agreements in exchange for returns. The product is structured as a loan to the exchange rather than a bank deposit, which means that users take direct counterparty risk.
Related: Startale raises $50M from SBI to complete $63M Series A
SBI has also been expanding its position in the local crypto exchange market. On May 1, the group said it was considering acquiring shares in the Bitbank trading platform and making it a consolidated subsidiary, a month after SBI VC Trade absorbed Bitpoint Japan.
Top crypto exchanges in Japan. Source: CoinGecko
The group’s securities arm is also preparing crypto investment products. SBI Securities reportedly plans to sell funds developed by SBI Global Asset Management, including investment trusts and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on crypto assets like BTC and ETH.
The moves show that the group is working to build crypto access points across regulated channels, from bank deposits and exchange services to securities products and stablecoin lending.
Magazine: Vietnam preps crypto pilot, HK pushes tokenization: Asia Express
RLUSD Records Strong Minting Activity on XRP Ledger
Ripple USD (RLUSD) recorded a strong liquidity increase during the past week as activity expanded across the XRP Ledger. Fresh minting transactions significantly exceeded token redemptions during the period. Consequently, the stablecoin added more than $275 million in net liquidity while its market capitalization continued to grow.
RLUSD experienced a notable rise in network activity over the last seven days. Several large minting and redemption transactions took place on the XRP Ledger. As a result, the stablecoin supply expanded during the reporting period.
Data from XRP Ledger activity showed substantial token creation across multiple days. On May 22, RLUSD Treasury minted more than 10 million RLUSD. Meanwhile, additional minting and burning transactions occurred on May 21 and May 20.
The largest transaction involved the creation of 230 million RLUSD on the XRP Ledger. At the same time, Ripple removed smaller amounts of RLUSD from circulation through treasury burn events. Consequently, minting activity outweighed redemptions by a wide margin.
Network data showed that RLUSD minted approximately $354.4 million during the week. In contrast, total burned supply reached about $78.7 million. Therefore, the stablecoin generated a net liquidity increase exceeding $275 million.
The latest figures highlight growing usage of RLUSD within the XRP Ledger ecosystem. Increased token issuance often reflects higher demand for settlement and liquidity purposes. Moreover, stablecoin activity can support broader network participation.
RLUSD continues to serve as a key component of Ripple’s expanding digital payments strategy. The stablecoin supports value transfers while maintaining a dollar-pegged structure. As adoption grows, transaction volumes may continue increasing across supported platforms.
Binance Expands RLUSD Utility Through Trading Support
Major cryptocurrency exchange Binance contributed to RLUSD activity during the reporting period. The platform processed RLUSD transactions on the XRP Ledger. Consequently, exchange-related flows added to overall network volume.
Binance expanded support for RLUSD earlier this year through several product integrations. The exchange introduced spot trading support for the stablecoin. Additionally, it enabled portfolio margin eligibility for qualifying users.
The platform also added RLUSD to its Earn products. These additions created more use cases for holders across trading and yield-related services. Therefore, RLUSD gained broader exposure within the cryptocurrency market.
Exchange support often plays an important role in stablecoin growth. Larger trading venues provide liquidity and increase accessibility for users. Moreover, integration with multiple products can encourage wider adoption.
The recent increase in RLUSD activity coincided with continued exchange participation. Transaction processing across major platforms supported the movement of newly issued tokens. As a result, liquidity expanded alongside network usage.
Growing exchange availability may strengthen RLUSD’s position among dollar-backed digital assets. Stablecoins rely on liquidity and accessibility to support adoption. Therefore, exchange partnerships remain an important factor in future growth.
RLUSD Market Cap Climbs as Ecosystem Growth Continues
RLUSD’s market capitalization recently surpassed $1.7 billion. The milestone reflects continued expansion since the stablecoin entered the market. Furthermore, growing transaction activity has supported that upward trend.
Ripple has positioned RLUSD for use in payments and decentralized finance applications. These sectors continue to represent major growth areas for stablecoins. Consequently, broader utility may contribute to sustained demand.
Market participants also expect additional ecosystem developments in the near term. Industry discussions have pointed to potential end-of-month activity involving the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini. Such developments could generate further minting and redemption transactions.
Stablecoin growth remains a significant trend across the digital asset sector. Companies continue expanding products that support blockchain-based payments and settlements. Moreover, increased liquidity often improves efficiency across related services.
RLUSD’s latest expansion demonstrates rising activity on the XRP Ledger. Strong minting volumes drove a substantial weekly liquidity increase. As adoption advances, the stablecoin continues strengthening its presence within the broader digital asset ecosystem.
TLDR
- Bitcoin traded near $61,100 after a 10% weekly decline as ETF outflows extended.
- Wintermute linked the selloff to US institutional exits rather than panic-driven retail selling.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest outflow streak, totaling nearly $2.97 billion by May 30.
- Changpeng Zhao urged calm, stating Bitcoin “won’t be dead for too long.”
- On-chain data showed small wallets increased holdings while large holders reduced exposure.
Bitcoin traded near $61,100 on June 9 after a weekly drop of about 10%, while ETF outflows and whale selling persisted. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao urged calm as trading firm Wintermute linked the decline to US institutional flows. On-chain data from Santiment showed retail buyers adding exposure as larger wallets reduced holdings.
Bitcoin Faces ETF Outflows and Institutional Selling
Bitcoin extended losses as US spot ETFs recorded their longest outflow streak on record through late May. Wintermute estimated cumulative outflows near $2.97 billion by May 30, while fresh inflows remained absent. The firm stated, “With prior support gone, there’s not much underneath to lean on,” and added that flows now set direction.
Wintermute attributed the decline to US institutions unwinding positions built weeks earlier, not panic selling. Analysts said Bitcoin never formed strong support between $50,000 and $59,000 during the 2024 rally. As a result, traders lack clear technical levels and rely on capital movement to guide price action.
Bitcoin remains more than 50% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000. MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC, marking its first disposal since 2022, though it called the sale immaterial. Still, the transaction drew attention as ETF outflows persisted and liquidity conditions tightened.
Macro data reinforced the pressure as US payrolls increased by 172,000 in May. That figure exceeded expectations near 80,000, while April payrolls were revised up to 179,000. Strong labor data lifted yields and reduced near-term expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
CZ Urges Calm as Whales Reduce Holdings
Changpeng Zhao addressed the decline after stepping back from Binance leadership in 2023. He wrote, “Bitcoin won’t be ‘dead’ for too long. Don’t panic,” framing the pullback as temporary. His message arrived as ETF outflows extended and sentiment weakened across derivatives markets.
Santiment reported a widening split between small and large holders over two weeks. Wallets holding under 0.01 BTC increased balances by 0.36%, while wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC reduced holdings by 0.20%. The firm said durable bottoms often follow retail capitulation rather than steady retail buying.
Santiment added, “That widespread surrender simply isn’t showing up yet,” describing current behavior. Analysts stated markets often move against retail expectations and align with whale positioning. As whales trimmed exposure, retail accumulation continued without coordinated large-wallet support.
Some long-term holders began accumulating at current levels, citing multi-year positioning strategies. However, blockchain data has not shown aggressive whale accumulation that marked prior cycle lows. ETF flow trends and wallet distribution metrics remain the most recent indicators shaping Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
Bitcoin (BTC) slid near $62,500 as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit 10. Bitcoin fear this extreme has appeared only near past cycle bottoms.
The index sat at 8 a day earlier and at 47 a month ago. Two widely followed momentum charts show why the drop happened and what could signal a turn.
Momentum Broke First, Then Price Followed
A Glassnode chart shared by analyst BitcoinVector tracks Bitcoin price, price momentum, and spot cumulative volume delta side by side. Momentum fell below the +0.5 threshold well before price broke down.
The same chart shows spot demand weakening at that moment. Cumulative volume delta flipped to roughly negative 1,000, a sign that aggressive sellers took control on spot exchanges. Momentum now sits pinned at the -1.00 floor.
BitcoinVector argues the order of events matters. Momentum weakens first, spot demand fades second, and price breaks last.
Crypto Sentiment Collapsed From Neutral to Extreme Fear
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index weighs volatility, momentum, volume, and social signals on a 0-100 scale. It read 47, or neutral, just one month ago.
Within weeks, it fell to 23, then to 8, and now sits at 10. Both recent readings land in extreme fear, the zone where panic usually dominates trading.
That pessimism mirrors a fear streak that recently became one of the longest since the FTX collapse. Past work on crypto emotions suggests that sentiment often moves toward extremes rather than the middle.
Bitcoin Fear at These Levels Has Marked Past Bottoms
A chart from BitboBTC colors Bitcoin price data by its fear reading. Deep extreme-fear values cluster almost only at major lows.
The blue circles mark those moments. They line up with the late-2018 bottom near $3,000, the March 2020 crash near $4,800, and the 2022 bear-market low near $18,000.
Today’s reading of 10 places current sentiment alongside those events. BTC is down about 50% from its October 2025 record near $126,200.
However, fear has stayed low for weeks before, and prices ground lower afterward, so some analysts have urged patience at similar readings.
What Would Confirm a Bitcoin Recovery
An earlier Swissblock chart frames the recovery trigger. Momentum needs to cross back above -0.5 to signal that capitulation is easing.
Swissblock calls that move the first sign of structural reconstruction. Until it happens, the firm sees a fragile base case where price builds a range or grinds lower.
For now, BTC trades near $62,500, down about 1.7% over the past 24 hours, with a market cap of about $1.25 trillion.
A reclaim of -0.5 momentum could open room toward the $70,000 area, while a failure to hold could extend the decline. Two competing scenarios stay in play until the signal turns.
Bitcoin fear remains historically extreme, yet a confirmed bottom is only clear in hindsight. This article is for information only and does not constitute financial advice.
The post Bitcoin Fear Hit Levels Last Seen at $3,000 and $18,000 Price Points appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Starknet Launches STRK20 Privacy Layer, Bringing Shielded ERC-20 Balances and Transfers to Ethereum L2
Starknet rolled out STRK20, a note-based privacy layer for ERC-20 tokens, on Tuesday, allowing users to shield balances and conduct private transfers and swaps on the Ethereum layer-2 network. The launch is the first phase of STRK20, a framework Starknet has been building since its v0.14.2 protocol… Read the full story at The Defiant
Bitcoin traders have positioned for a Federal Reserve pause next week, with CME FedWatch data showing a 98.2% probability that policymakers will leave interest rates unchanged at the June 16-17 meeting.
Summary
- CME FedWatch data shows a 98.3% chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its June 16-17 meeting.
- Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have weakened as traders reduce risk ahead of the policy decision.
- Investors are focusing on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s forecasts, dot plot, and policy outlook for clues on future rates.
According to CME FedWatch data, markets are assigning only a 1.8% chance of a rate cut and no meaningful probability of a rate increase, leaving investors focused less on the decision itself and more on what Federal Reserve officials signal about the path ahead.
Attention has increasingly turned to the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, who will oversee both the rate announcement and the release of updated economic projections.
Alongside the policy statement, officials will publish a revised Summary of Economic Projections and the closely watched dot plot, which outlines where policymakers expect interest rates to move in the coming years.
The cautious positioning has coincided with weakness across digital assets. Crypto market data shows total market capitalization falling 2.47% over the past 24 hours to roughly $2.13 trillion, while Bitcoin (BTC) has also retreated as traders reduce risk exposure before the Fed decision.
Economists expect rates to stay unchanged through 2026
Fresh forecasts from Wall Street suggest policymakers may remain on hold for far longer than markets expected earlier this year.
According to a Reuters survey conducted between June 4 and June 9, 72 of 102 economists expect the federal funds rate to remain within the current 3.50% to 3.75% range through the end of 2026. Reuters noted that this represents the strongest consensus so far this year against additional rate cuts.
Several factors have contributed to that outlook. Reuters reported that stronger-than-expected economic data and ongoing inflation concerns have reduced expectations that the central bank will ease policy in the coming months.
Rate markets have moved in a similar direction. As reported by crypto.news, futures traders are now pricing the possibility of at least one rate increase by late 2026 rather than anticipating renewed cuts.
Additional support for the higher-rate outlook has come from major financial institutions. According to a crypto.news report, BNP Paribas recently revised its forecast and now expects the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates in December 2026. The French bank projects three increases that would effectively reverse the three rate cuts delivered during 2025.
Markets are watching the Fed’s projections and tone
Although traders overwhelmingly expect no change in borrowing costs next week, the accompanying forecasts could have a larger impact on financial markets.
Current Federal Reserve data places the effective federal funds rate near 3.62%, within the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Any adjustments to inflation forecasts, growth expectations, or the dot plot could influence expectations for 2027 and beyond.
Inflation remains a key variable heading into the meeting. Market commentary cited in the original report noted expectations for U.S. inflation around 4.2%, keeping investors attentive to how Fed officials assess price pressures and future policy risks.
Political pressure has also remained part of the discussion. As crypto.news previously reported, President Donald Trump has continued to advocate for lower interest rates, while Warsh has stated that monetary policy decisions will remain independent of political influence.
For Bitcoin traders, a rate hold appears largely priced in. Instead, market participants are preparing for signals from Warsh’s press conference and the Fed’s updated projections, which could shape expectations for liquidity conditions and risk assets during the second half of the year.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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