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Bitcoin stalls near $66K: is a bigger drop coming this week?

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Bitcoin oversold but still under bear pressure
Bitcoin oversold but still under bear pressure
  • Bitcoin price tests $65,000 support amid oversold conditions and weak momentum.
  • Rising US real yields and oil prices weigh on short-term buying pressure.
  • Traders should watch the $68,400 resistance and $65,100 support for the next moves.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of short-term fatigue as it navigates a tricky market environment.

After failing to break above resistance near $68,400, BTC has retreated toward critical support between $65,600 and $65,100.

The cryptocurrency is now hovering in a delicate range, where technical oversold signals clash with potent macroeconomic pressures.

Technical analysis

The seven-day RSI currently sits at 32.37, suggesting that Bitcoin is nearly oversold.

Bitcoin price chart

This level often indicates a potential bounce, but the market has yet to show sustained buying strength. Short-term momentum is fragile, with price action struggling to maintain levels above $66,000.

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Even though buyers have defended the $65,600 band so far, a break below $65,100 could signal a deeper correction.

Resistance remains firmly in place at $68,400, and attempts to push past it have been met with immediate selling. Traders should closely watch the $68,000–$68,500 zone, as it represents the ceiling for any short-term recovery attempts.

In this range-bound setup, the market is consolidating rather than trending decisively.

The macro headwinds shaping Bitcoin price movements

Bitcoin’s short-term struggles are compounded by external pressures.

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Rising real yields, especially on 10-year TIPS in the United States, have increased the appeal of government bonds over risk assets like BTC.

As a result, investors seeking yield are diverting capital toward these safer instruments, leaving Bitcoin with weaker demand.

At the same time, WTI crude oil prices have surged past $103 per barrel and Brent crude oil prices have hit $114, adding another layer of market uncertainty.

Energy-driven inflationary concerns make the broader financial environment more cautious, further dampening appetite for speculative assets.

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Adding to the pressure, a $2.2 billion payout by the FTX Recovery Trust to FTX creditors is scheduled for March 31, 2026.

Recipients may choose to liquidate portions of their holdings, which could add temporary selling pressure and keep BTC range-bound.

Even large buyers, often referred to as whales, are active but appear to be accumulating cautiously below $70,000.

This cautious accumulation suggests that institutional players are positioning for the long term but are unwilling to push aggressively at current levels.

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What traders should expect this week?

Short-term momentum is still weak, so any bounce is likely to be contained unless macro conditions improve.

Overall, Bitcoin is at a crossroads, balancing oversold technical conditions against persistent bear pressures from rates, oil prices, and potential selling catalysts.

Traders should monitor the $65,100 level closely, as a decisive hold here would support consolidation between $65,100 and $68,000.

A break below this band could open the door to a further decline toward $63,000 or lower.

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On the upside, sustained moves above $68,400–$68,500 would be required to challenge resistance near $70,000.

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Crypto World

South Korea Details AI System for Crypto Tax Monitoring

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South Korea Details AI System for Crypto Tax Monitoring

South Korea’s National Tax Service (NTS) has opened a tender for software licenses to track virtual asset transactions as part of tax evasion enforcement, according to a government procurement notice.

The notice said the contract is for “virtual asset tax evasion response transaction-tracking software licenses,” with a budget of 146.5 million won (around $99,500), including value-added tax and delivery due within 30 days of contract signing. Bid submissions are scheduled for April 28 to April 30, with proposal evaluation set for May 7.

The procurement notice itself gives limited detail on the software’s technical scope. However, citing an official from the NTS scientific investigation unit, local outlet ZDNet Korea reported that the software would allow officials to monitor crypto transactions in real time, visualize transfers between specific wallet addresses and exchanges, and support probes into hidden assets, offshore tax evasion and unreported inheritance or gift transfers.

The tender follows earlier local reporting that South Korea was preparing a broader AI-based crypto monitoring system ahead of the country’s planned 2027 tax rollout.

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South Korea expands enforcement capabilities ahead of crypto tax rollout

The tax agency’s push for a crypto monitoring tool appears to be part of a broader effort to expand enforcement capabilities as the country prepares for an upcoming rollout of a crypto tax. 

On March 12, local media The Korea Times reported that the NTS opened a bid for an AI-backed system to analyze crypto transaction data. The agency reportedly aims to establish a platform that can process large volumes of crypto trading data to monitor potential tax evasion.

Related: Bank of Korea governor backs CBDCs, deposit tokens in first address

South Korea’s crypto tax rollout is currently expected to take effect in January 2027 after several delays. Under the policy, gains above 2.5 million won (about $1,700) would be subject to a combined 22% levy, made up of a 20% income tax and an additional 2% local tax.

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The tax rollout remains politically contested. On March 19, South Korea’s main opposition People Power Party proposed scrapping the planned tax on crypto gains, arguing the policy raises fairness, double-taxation and enforcement concerns.

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