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Bitcoin Sub-$50K Spurs Five Key Takeaways Amid Gold Bear Market

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin began the week facing renewed macro headwinds as risk sentiment wavered and traders weighed the possibility of further downside in a pattern that resembles January’s bear flag. BTC traded around the mid-$60,000s after a weekend of outsized liquidations and a weekly close that fell short of reclaiming a crucial trend line, with the price hovering near $67,400 into the close and slipping below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $68,300. The setup comes as gold slips into bear-market territory and oil maintains a firm footing above $100 per barrel, underscoring a macro environment that remains conducive to volatility in risk assets.

Markets are integrating a mix of geopolitical risks, shifting Fed expectations, and on-chain signals. Several traders and analysts highlighted that Bitcoin’s current action echoes a bear-flag scenario seen earlier this year, with potential consequences if selling pressure resumes. In practical terms, a breakdown from the flag could open the door to new multiyear lows, while a short-lived upside would need to clear a sequence of resistance levels to change the narrative. Estimated targets remain contentious, but some observers point to a test of sub-$50,000 if the pattern plays out in earnest, while participants will look for a sustained push above the high-$70,000s to reframe the setup.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin closed the week below the 200-week EMA (about $68,300), with price near $67,400, renewing bear-market risks for bulls.
  • The current price action resembles January’s bear-flag breakdown, suggesting the next move could push BTC toward sub-$50k if momentum accelerates on a breakdown.
  • Market dynamics were amplified by elevated liquidations—over $400 million in the last 24 hours—indicating persistent selling pressure and liquidity-linked risk appetite.
  • Gold dropped into bear-market territory, trading around $4,100 per ounce, while oil sustained gains above $100, underscoring inflation and energy-security concerns in the macro backdrop.
  • On-chain data show long-term holders capitulating, with the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR dipping to 0.64 in early March, suggesting widespread losses among patient investors even as some supply moved off exchanges.

Bitcoin’s technical crossroads: bear flags, ranges, and a potential squeeze

Trading activity over the weekend underscored a fragile setup as traders awaited fresh cues from traditional markets. Data from TradingView show BTC’s price dipping to near $67,400 into the weekly close, failing to sustain a move back above the 200-week EMA, which currently sits around $68,300. Previously, a weekly close above that line had been viewed as a bulls’ lifeline; the latest close shifts the balance toward the bears’ camp for now.

Analysts have repeatedly warned that the market could circle within a defined range for a period as macro tensions persist. In particular, a number of voices on social media pointed to the January bear-flag precedent, where a breakdown from a consolidation pattern led to a renewed downtrend. The prevailing read is that a break below the lower boundary of the range could accelerate declines, while a lackluster upside would keep the door open to further weakness until macro catalysts shift decisively.

Strategists highlighted a nuanced near-term path. One analyst noted the potential rotation to around $65,000 should the week begin with renewed selling pressure, but a brief push toward $70,000 could lure bulls if price action gains a foothold. A breakthrough above $71,000 would likely require a clean close into the $73,000–$74,000 zone to reassert a bullish tilt; otherwise, risk-reward remains skewed to the downside in the near term.

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Liquidity dynamics also shaped expectations. As weekend liquidity thinned, traders observed that small orders could have outsized price effects in the thin books, amplifying moves and triggering stop-loss clusters or liquidations. A few market voices warned against interpreting weekend volatility as a trend signal, reminding participants that thinner markets tend to exaggerate short-term moves.

Across the community, a mix of sentiment and risk due to macro headlines kept traders vigilant. Some suggested the risk of a short-term squeeze exists if liquidity-driven pressure eases and offers a window for longs to step in, but a sustained shift above key levels would be necessary to flip the narrative.

Macro backdrop tightens: gold, oil, and the Iran risk premium

The broader macro environment added a heavyweight note to the Bitcoin picture. Gold, which had been trading at elevated levels, slid into bear-market territory, with XAU/USD dipping more than 20% from its all-time high and testing around $4,100 per ounce. The slide fed into the broader risk-off impulse in early sessions as market participants weighed the implications of higher real yields and inflation dynamics. In commentary cited by traders, some observers argued that a significant liquidity event among large participants could be at play, as price action in the gold market suggested stress beyond routine fluctuations.

The energy complex also played a central role. Oil prices remained resilient above the $100 barrier, reflecting ongoing concerns about supply security, particularly in light of tensions in the Middle East. European and Asian energy markets showed heightened sensitivity to headlines about flows through strategic corridors, with observers noting that energy-inflation linkages tend to feed into broader macro expectations. A veteran market briefing noted that even moderate changes in oil prices can meaningfully influence headline inflation readings, potentially affecting the tempo of monetary policy decisions in the quarters ahead.

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Against this backdrop, market research outfits highlighted potential inflationary implications. The Market Mosaic, a regular briefing from Mosaic Asset Company, stressed that oil price moves can directly affect inflation metrics, with a $10 per barrel swing historically contributing meaningfully to shifts in inflation readings. While the notes did not predict a specific outcome, they underscored the sensitivity of risk assets to energy-price shocks amid a policy backdrop that remains cautious about rate-cut horizons.

Fed stance, volatility, and the options backdrop

On the policy front, the commitment to inflation progress remained central. In the aftermath of the most recent Federal Reserve gathering, Wall Street’s takeaway was that any policy loosening would hinge on demonstrable progress toward inflation targets. The accompanying narrative from market observers suggested that rate-cut expectations were being pushed further out, with some analysts pointing to the potential for rate hikes to reemerge in 2026 should inflation prove stickier than anticipated. The evolving odds were being tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which reflected shifting probability curves as new data filtered in.

Beyond the Fed, traders also eyed the options market in a bid to gauge near-term liquidity flows. The Kobeissi Letter noted that last week’s expiration event—described as a substantial triple-witching session for U.S. stocks and ETFs—unleashed a significant amount of capital as large options positions expired. The implication, as described by The Kobeissi Letter, is that this could unleash fresh volatility into equities and by extension into correlated risk assets, including bitcoin, in the days that followed.

In this environment, the weekend volatility gave on-chain observers a useful reminder of how market structure interacts with price moves. CryptoQuant contributors observed that weekend sessions tend to see diminished institutional participation and ETF-driven demand, elevating the role of derivatives positioning and short-term liquidity. The takeaway from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake was clear: thinner order books amplify price sensitivity, and weekend action should not be misconstrued as a trend signal.

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On-chain signals: capitulation among long-term holders

On-chain analytics painted a nuanced portrait of investor behavior. CryptoQuant’s analysis focused on the SOPR metric, which compares the price at which coins are moved on-chain to their previous cost basis. Investigators highlighted that Long-Term Holder (LTH) SOPR dropped to 0.64 in early March, a read indicating that LTHs were selling at a substantial loss relative to their cost basis. As one contributor described it, readings this far below 1.0 signal meaningful capitulation among patient holders, underscoring a period of fear in the market.

Despite the near-term pain for many LTHs, the broader signal remains ambiguous. The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR remained below 1, suggesting that while a portion of supply was exiting exchanges, other cohorts could be quietly absorbing supply and moving coins off-chain. Analysts characterized this as a possible distribution-accumulation dynamic at play, a classic hallmark of a market transitioning through a phase of capitulation while still containing pockets of absorption that could set the stage for a future regime shift.

Closing perspective: what to watch next

As Bitcoin navigates a week shadowed by macro risks, traders will be watching the confluence of technical levels, liquidity conditions, and on-chain signals. The immediate focal point remains a sustained move beyond the 200-week EMA and a clear exit from the prevailing range, which could determine whether the path of least resistance remains lower or if a credible bounce materializes. In parallel, the trajectories of gold and oil, influenced by geopolitical developments and inflation dynamics, will help frame risk sentiment across crypto markets. Finally, the evolving policy stance from the Federal Reserve and the behavior of large derivatives positions—along with on-chain capitulation versus accumulation signals—could shape volatility in the days ahead as markets price a longer horizon for rate moves and macro resilience.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Anthropic’s Claude AI on Track for $100B Revenue Run Rate by Late 2026

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • Altimeter Capital’s Brad Gerstner projects Anthropic’s ARR could surge to $80B–$100B by year-end 2026
  • The company’s ARR currently exceeds $30B, a massive jump from $9B recorded at 2025’s close
  • Claude’s average daily user count more than doubled between February and March 2026
  • More than 1,000 enterprise clients now invest over $1M per year in Anthropic’s services
  • ChatGPT experienced declines in web traffic and mobile usage during March as Claude and Gemini expanded their presence

Brad Gerstner, who founded Altimeter Capital, recently described Anthropic’s revenue trajectory as among the most explosive growth stories in technology sector history. During a weekend podcast appearance, he projected the AI company’s annual revenue run rate could climb to somewhere between $80 billion and $100 billion before 2026 concludes.

This projection represents approximately a threefold increase from Anthropic’s current position. The company’s ARR has now crossed the $30 billion threshold, surging from roughly $9 billion when 2025 ended. Just months earlier in 2026, that metric stood at approximately $15 billion.

Anthropic had initially set its sights on achieving an ARR ranging from $20 billion to $26 billion throughout the calendar year. The company has already exceeded those ambitious targets.

According to Gerstner, the organization has experienced a significant “rebound” during the last three months following a period where it received relatively little attention throughout 2025. He now characterizes the company as surpassing OpenAI, whose ARR currently sits in the $24 billion to $25 billion range.

Business Customers Driving Explosive Revenue

Anthropic now counts over 1,000 enterprise organizations that each commit more than $1 million annually to its platform. The company’s Claude AI models have gained widespread adoption for coding assistance, workflow automation, and API-driven applications.

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The company introduced Claude CoWork in January 2026 and most recently unveiled an innovative AI model named Mythos. These product launches have maintained strong visibility for Anthropic throughout the tech industry.

To accommodate its rapid expansion, Anthropic has partnered with Google and Broadcom on developing 3.5 gigawatts of computing infrastructure. Gerstner emphasized that achieving the $100 billion ARR milestone will demand substantial infrastructure capital.

Market Share Shifts Favor Claude

Recent analysis from BNP Paribas reveals that Claude’s portion of chatbot website traffic nearly doubled, climbing from 3.6% in February to 6.6% by March. The platform’s average monthly daily active users jumped from 0.8% to 1.8% during the same timeframe.

Google’s Gemini platform similarly expanded, with its website visit share increasing from 26.2% to 28% in March.

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While ChatGPT maintains its position as the leading chatbot platform, it experienced declines in both web traffic and mobile application usage throughout March, based on analysis from BNP researchers led by Nick Jones.

Amazon also featured prominently in the BNP analysis. Uber recently broadened its deployment of Amazon’s Gravitron4 and Trainium3 chip architectures. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy disclosed that AWS AI-related ARR has reached $15 billion, while chip-specific ARR stands at $20 billion.

Meta’s recently launched Muse Spark AI model triggered a significant spike in downloads for the Meta AI application. BNP analysts noted the launch demonstrates Meta’s advancing AI strategy.

Anthropic ranks among multiple privately-held technology companies potentially preparing for public offerings in 2026, with preliminary valuation estimates hovering around $300 billion.

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Circle’s Allaire says USDC freezes require legal orders amid rising criticism

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Circle (CRCL) may rally another 60% driven by stablecoin adoption, AI agentic finance: Bernstein

Circle Internet (CRCL) CEO Jeremy Allaire offered his clearest public response yet to growing criticism over how the stablecoin issuer handles illicit funds, saying it does not freeze wallets unless there is a formal legal basis to do so.

Speaking on stage at a press conference in Seoul, Allaire positioned USDC, the second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, as a regulated financial product rather than a tool for real-time intervention.

“Circle has a very, very clear performance obligation under the law,” Allaire said. “Circle follows the rule of law, and we are able to undertake actions such as freezing a wallet at the direction of law enforcement or the courts.”

Allaire framed USDC as part of the traditional financial system, subject to legal process and oversight. Decisions to blacklist or freeze funds, he suggested, should not be made at the discretion of the company in the heat of an exploit, but instead follow requests from law enforcement or court orders. The approach reflects Circle’s broader strategy to align closely with regulators and institutions.

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Rival Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT, has a more proactive approach. The company has repeatedly frozen funds linked to hack and illicit activity within hours. In several cases cited by blockchain sleuth ZachXBT, including exploits affecting Ledger and Remitano, Tether blacklisted stolen funds while equivalent USDC remained untouched.

Allaire’s remarks come at a time of mounting scrutiny. Earlier this month, Drift Protocol suffered a suspected North Korea-linked exploit that resulted in losses of up to $280 million. Roughly $230 million in USDC was moved across chains over several hours. The incident has become a focal point for critics who argue that Circle is failing to act despite having the technical ability to do so.

Intervention carries risks, too

ZachXBT is among the most vocal. In a widely circulated thread on X, he said Circle’s inaction across more than a dozen cases since 2022 has contributed to over $420 million in illicit funds escaping. He pointed to multiple incidents where stolen USDC remained in identifiable wallets for hours or even days without being frozen, including exploits affecting Cetus, SwapNet, and Nomad.

Critics say the pattern highlights a deeper issue. USDC is centrally issued and contains controls that allow Circle to block addresses. Yet those powers are rarely used in real time. By deferring to legal processes that move far more slowly than blockchain transactions, they argue, Circle creates a gap that attackers can exploit.

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Others in the industry argue that faster intervention carries its own risks. Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, responded to calls for discretionary freezes by warning that allowing issuers to act beyond legal requirements would undermine the foundations of decentralized finance (DeFi).

Such powers could erode trust in DeFi systems by introducing centralized points of control, Malekan said.

“If Circle and other stablecoin issuers implement arbitrary freeze or seize functions beyond what the law requires, then not only is code not law, but also law is not law,” he wrote on X. “Instead what a single executive inside a single corporation decides is law.”

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Hyperbridge exploited less than two weeks after April Fools’ day hack prank

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Hyperbridge exploited less than two weeks after April Fools’ day hack prank

Self-styled “unbreakable” Hyperbridge protocol has been exploited, less than two weeks after making a tasteless April Fools’ joke about being hacked.

Despite previously explaining how a hack was impossible as part of the April 1 prank, the project acknowledged the exploit in a “bridge update!” posted to X. 

According to crypto security firm CertiK, the hacker “forged message to change the admin of Polkadot token contract on Ethereum and profited ~$237K from minting and selling 1B tokens.”

Another on-chain analyst flagged a further 245 ether (worth over $500,000) which was allegedly drained from the project’s TokenGateway contract before being deposited into Tornado Cash.

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While this loss may be modest compared to many crypto hacks, especially bridges, many have focused on the karma dealt to a project with a consistently cavalier attitude towards security.

Read more: Bitcoin Depot didn’t spot 50 BTC hack for three days, report

Hyperbridge claimed the North Korean Lazarus Group had drained $37 million on April 1. The announcement linked to a (now deleted) blog post which contained a Rickroll gif before explaining “Why Hyperbridge Can’t Be Hacked.”

Following backlash, Hyperbridge’s “mad scientist,” who goes by “Web3 Philosopher” on X, boasted of the protocol’s “incorruptible” infrastructure.

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In February, they also posted screenshots which appear to show correspondence with a big bounty hunter flagging critical vulnerabilities, who was told “exploit them if you found them.”

Apparently taking the April Fools’ prank as a challenge, a known exploiter address began testing Hyperbridge. The attempts were dismissed with “hope you have a quantum computer bro.”

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Foundry’s institutional Zcash pool captures a third of new issuance

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Cyclops raises $8m for enterprise stablecoin infrastructure

Foundry’s U.S.‑based, compliance‑first Zcash pool has already grown to roughly one‑third of network hashrate, giving institutional miners a regulated way into privacy coins while stoking fresh centralisation fears.

Summary

  • Bitcoin mining giant Foundry has launched an institutional Zcash pool that already accounts for roughly one‑third of new ZEC issuance.
  • The U.S.‑based, compliance‑focused pool is pitched at institutional and public miners as a “purpose‑built” alternative to offshore privacy‑coin infrastructure.
  • Foundry argues Zcash’s zero‑knowledge privacy with selective disclosure makes it more compatible with regulation than rivals like Monero.

Foundry Digital, operator of the Foundry USA Bitcoin mining pool, has officially launched an institutional‑grade Zcash (ZEC) mining pool that has quickly grown to around 30% of the network’s hashrate, consolidating a significant share of new ZEC issuance under a single U.S.‑regulated operator. The Rochester, New York‑based firm, which Fortune notes already commands about 31% of global Bitcoin production, is positioning its new pool as the default home for institutional miners seeking exposure to privacy‑focused assets without abandoning compliance.finance.

In a Business Wire release, Foundry said the Zcash pool has seen “rapid and sustained hashrate growth reaching ~30% of the current Zcash network hashrate” since it was first announced on March 11, with “multiple institutional mining customers already onboarded and contributing hashrate.” The company stressed that the pool is “designed for professional mining organizations and public companies that require a U.S.-based, compliance-ready partner, including KYC verification in line with Foundry’s institutional standards,” mirroring the governance of its Bitcoin operation.

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Foundry CEO Mike Colyer framed the move as both a bet on Zcash and a response to unmet institutional demand. “Zcash has matured into an institutional‑grade asset, but the mining infrastructure supporting it hasn’t kept pace,” he said, adding that the new pool is “purpose‑built for the operational and compliance requirements of institutional and public miners.”

A CoinMarketCap summary of the launch notes that the pool will offer know‑your‑customer and anti‑money‑laundering checks, transparent payout calculations, reporting tools and 24/7 technical support, with no minimum hashrate required to join.

Zcash, launched in 2016, relies on zero‑knowledge proofs (zk‑SNARKs) to enable shielded transactions that hide sender, receiver and amount while still allowing selective disclosure to auditors or regulators. Foundry and several commentators have argued that this “privacy with a view key” model is more compatible with institutional compliance than fully opaque systems like Monero, which lack native mechanisms for selective transparency.

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At the same time, the arrival of a U.S. pool with roughly one‑third of Zcash’s hashrate raises familiar centralisation questions. Unfolded and other mining trackers have previously highlighted that Foundry USA already coordinates about 30% of Bitcoin’s global hashrate, and Mempool.space data shows the pool averaging more than 340 exahashes per second on Bitcoin alone. Adding a Zcash operation that quickly captures around one‑third of ZEC issuance further concentrates influence over block production in a single corporate group, albeit one that stresses its role in “contribut[ing] to the decentralization of Bitcoin’s hashrate” by anchoring North American capacity.

For Zcash, the trade‑off is stark: institutional capital and hashpower are flowing in through a U.S.‑regulated gateway that validates the project’s positioning as a compliant privacy coin, but at the cost of a more concentrated mining landscape. As regulators in the U.S., EU and Hong Kong tighten their grip on stablecoins, exchanges and tokenized assets — a trend explored in recent crypto.news coverage of HKDAP’s launch, MiCA implementation and the CLARITY Act — Zcash’s bet is that privacy with selective disclosure, plus a mining pool built for auditors rather than cypherpunks, is a price worth paying for long‑term relevance.

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Bitcoin’s 50% Drawdown ‘Priced In’ Quantum Computing Threat: Bernstein

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Bitcoin's 50% Drawdown ‘Priced In’ Quantum Computing Threat: Bernstein

Bernstein said Monday that Bitcoin’s selloff has already priced in much of the market’s fear around quantum computing, arguing that the threat is real but still manageable rather than an immediate existential risk.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) near 50% drawdown from its $126,198 all-time high in October 2025 is proof that the market has “priced in” several risks tied to a quantum breakthrough, partly thanks to technological progress on zero-knowledge privacy and quantum-proof cryptography that “counterbalance” the AI and quantum acceleration, Bernstein said in a Monday note shared with Cointelegraph.

The note lands two weeks after Google researchers said future quantum computers could break the elliptic-curve cryptography used across many blockchains with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in some architectures, reviving debate over how quickly Bitcoin needs a post-quantum upgrade path. This research suggested a quantum computer could crack a Bitcoin private key in nine minutes, in a theoretical scenario, which is less than Bitcoin’s 10-minute block production time.

However, Bernstein said Bitcoin core developers have “adequate time” to determine a post-quantum path. Last week, Bernstein predicted that Bitcoin has about three to five years to prepare for a post-quantum security upgrade, Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday.

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Graph showing the risk that an on-spend quantum attack that takes 9 minutes to derive a private key succeeds against Bitcoin. Source: Google Quantum AI

Institutions will play constructive role in quantum-proofing Bitcoin

Bernstein said large institutional holders, including exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy, are likely to play a constructive role in any eventual consensus on a post-quantum upgrade.

“We expect institutional partners with now billions at stake to play a constructive role in building consensus on the post-quantum path.”

The note also highlighted the recently introduced BIP-360 proposal and added that slower consensus from Bitcoin developers is seen as responsible behavior when it comes to a $1.5 trillion asset.

BIP-360 is a draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal that proposes a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type designed to reduce long-exposure quantum risk by removing Taproot’s key-path vulnerability, though it does not itself add post-quantum digital signatures.

Bernstein said BIP-360 could be implemented as a soft fork for exposed Bitcoin addresses, but added that this would still leave around 8% of the BTC supply in inactive addresses vulnerable to future quantum breakthroughs.

Related: Bitcoiners push for quantum-resistant BIP-360 upgrade as debate heats up

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Quantum-proofing Bitcoin is a social issue, not technical

The real challenge of quantum-proofing Bitcoin lies in the societal adoption element of the new standards, not the technical development, according to Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos blockchain.

“The coding work could be done this afternoon,” but Bitcoin holders would still need to migrate to this new standard, Breitman told Cointelegraph during an interview at EthCC 2026.

“If Bitcoin needed to migrate in the next month, they could do it from a technical perspective […] but they can’t get everyone to migrate their key in a month, Breitman said. “It’s going to take years for people to properly migrate their keys,” he added.

Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos, interview at EthCC 2026. Source: Cointelegraph

Asset manager Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, shared a similar view in a research report last Monday. He said Bitcoin’s quantum-proofing challenges are “more social than technical,” provided that its UTXO model does not have native smart contracts and that some address types are not quantum vulnerable.

However, he warned that the community needs to find consensus on how to quantum-proof wallets where the private key has been lost or is otherwise inaccessible.

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Magazine: AI has dramatically accelerated the quantum threat to Bitcoin: AI Eye