A busy week lies ahead on the United States economic calendar as markets continue to digest the fallout from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend.

Volatility will be abundant this week as US stock futures open and react to the weekend’s violence in the Middle East. Crypto markets remained relatively flat on Sunday, but have started their usual Monday morning retreat.

US President Donald Trump provided details on “Operation Epic Fury” on Sunday, stating that the US will “avenge” the deaths of Americans, there will be more US casualties, military operations will continue until “objectives are achieved,” and claimed the entire Iranian military command is “gone.”

It is not World War III, said the Kobeissi letter, pointing to oil prices, which have already erased nearly half of their opening gap higher, and US stock market futures, which are down marginally while gold prices are up again. “Don’t panic. The dust will settle,” they said.

Economic Events March 2 to 6

This week sees the release of a lot of labor market reports, which the Federal Reserve looks at to make its monetary policy decisions. The first major report of the week is February’s ISM Manufacturing PMI data, released on Monday, providing insight into the state of the manufacturing sector.

The tranche of employment data begins on Wednesday with the February ADP Employment report, followed by Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the February Jobs Report on Friday, which will also include the January Retail Sales data.

Friday’s jobs report comes after surprisingly strong job gains in January, potentially signaling positive developments in the labor market. The report is expected to show an increase of 60,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll.

“We saw a good January jobs report, but we also have seen a really weak 2025 for the job market, and so the question becomes, where do we go from here?” Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, told the outlet.

Key Events This Week:

1. US Futures React to Iran Situation – TODAY 6 PM ET

2. February ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Monday

3. February ADP Employment data – Wednesday

4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday

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5. January Retail Sales data – Friday

6. February Jobs Report -…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 1, 2026

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Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets are back in the red today following a positive Sunday. Total cap has dropped back to $2.35 trillion, erasing weekend gains.

Bitcoin was rejected at $67,000 three times over the past 24 hours and has fallen back to $66,300 during the Monday morning Asian trading session. It has been trading sideways for the past three weeks, however.

Ether prices could not hold above $2,000 and have retreated to $1,950 at the time of writing. The altcoins are mostly in the red with larger losses for XRP, Solana, Cardano, Canton, and Stellar.

JPMorgan analysts say a long-anticipated U.S. crypto market structure bill could be approved by mid-2026 and act as a major positive catalyst for digital asset markets in the second half of the year.

The report highlights that despite subdued sentiment and weak trading volumes across the sector, regulatory clarity from the proposed legislation, commonly referred to as the CLARITY Act, could help unlock growth and investment later in 2026.

JPMorgan says Clarity Act may spark second-half crypto upswing

According to the note, the Clarity Act represents not a marginal tweak but a “structural transformation” of the regulatory environment. JPMorgan outlined three key impacts.

First, the elimination of “regulation by enforcement” as the default approach to oversight. The bill would clearly divide jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, reducing the legal ambiguity that has deterred institutional investors worried about retroactive token reclassification and undefined liability.

Second, clearer rules could convert institutional crypto interest from exploratory allocations into high-conviction positions. The note argues pension funds and asset managers currently testing exposure may scale significantly once regulatory risks are reduced.

Third, JPMorgan expects an acceleration of real-world asset tokenization, with Wall Street firms moving projects from pilot stages to production scale under a defined legal framework.

However, another analyst strongly disputed JPMorgan’s timeline, arguing that the market reaction would not wait until the second half of 2026. The critic contended that if the Clarity Act is expected to become law by July, the rally would likely begin well in advance, following a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern.

In that view, crypto prices could start climbing months before the bill is signed, potentially as much as 150 days ahead of the event, followed by a pullback around the official signing, and then a renewed upward move afterwards.

XRP (XRP) holders appear to be adopting a defensive stance amid intensifying geopolitical tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

On-chain data shows more than $650 million worth of XRP flowing into Binance over the past week. The sharp rise in exchange inflows suggests investors may be positioning for increased volatility, raising the risk of short-term downside if market uncertainty persists.

Rising Middle East Tensions Trigger XRP Positioning Shift

BeInCrypto reported that a joint strike by Israel and the United States on Iran on Saturday triggered a sharp sell-off across crypto markets.

“The first strikes were launched shortly after the close of traditional financial markets. This timing amplified uncertainty across risk assets, with crypto reacting almost immediately to the geopolitical shock,” analyst Darkfost stated.

Tensions escalated further over the weekend following reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed. Iran has intensified retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and several Gulf Arab countries, deepening fears of broader regional instability. The rising geopolitical risk has weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Crypto markets have declined alongside other risk assets. Meanwhile, gold surged as capital rotated toward traditional safe havens. XRP has not been immune.

On-chain analyst Darkfost noted that more than 472 million XRP, worth approximately $650 million, were transferred to Binance over the past week. According to the analyst, this was the “largest inflow period of the month of February.”

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Large exchange inflows are often interpreted as a sign of potential selling pressure, as tokens typically need to be moved onto trading platforms before they can be sold. However, inflows do not automatically translate into immediate sell-offs.

Such transfers may also reflect liquidity repositioning, arbitrage strategies, collateral management, or precautionary moves during periods of heightened volatility. Still, it raises concerns.

“Such inflows typically reflect a more defensive posture from investors holding XRP. When large amounts of tokens move onto exchanges, it often signals a potential willingness to sell or at least to position liquidity closer to the market. When amount of flows like this are recorded, they can create the conditions for a sudden wave of selling pressure capable of impacting price action in the short term,” Darkfost said.

The main question is whether the large inflow signals a lasting distribution phase or just a temporary response to crises. Notably, the transfer has caused Binance’s XRP reserves to tick up.

CryptoQuant data showed that exchange reserves had been broadly declining since October 2025. The recent inflow marks a modest reversal of that trend for now.

Meanwhile, XRP extended its losses in line with the broader crypto market downturn. According to BeInCrypto Markets data, the altcoin has dropped more than 4% in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.37.

The next few days will reveal whether this $652 million move was a one-off or signals the start of further adjustments among XRP holders. As geopolitical risk and crypto market structure collide, both near-term volatility and long-term adoption narratives remain at the forefront.

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Bitcoin price enters one of the most consequential macro weeks of the first quarter, trading in the $66,000 range, down modestly amid fragile sentiment, thin liquidity, and geopolitical overhang.

After weeks of several lower highs, and with the pioneer crypto recording its weakest start to a year on record, traders are now turning to a heavy slate of US economic data that could redefine Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut expectations and, by extension, crypto market direction.

US Economic Data Points to Influence Bitcoin Price This Week

Below are the five key reports expected to sway Bitcoin sentiment this week.

Manufacturing PMI

The week begins with February’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the closely watched ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Consensus expects readings around 51.2 for S&P and 52.0–52.3 for ISM, following January’s surprise surge to 52.6, the strongest expansion since 2022.

The implications could extend to Bitcoin, where a reading above 52.5, particularly if new orders and production strengthen, would reinforce the “resilient economy” narrative.

That scenario typically delays Fed rate cuts, lifts Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, and puts pressure on non-yielding assets like BTC.

Conversely, a drop toward 50, the contraction threshold, would shift expectations toward earlier easing. Historically, contraction combined with weak BTC positioning has delivered strong upside reversals.

“ISM above 50 is bullish for markets,” commented analyst Bull Theory.

Notably, manufacturing is not the dominant engine of the U.S. economy. However, as the week’s first catalyst, it could set the volatility tone for March.

ADP Employment Signals Labor Tightness

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change report acts as the market’s first real labor pulse for February. Economists expect roughly 50,000 new private-sector jobs, up from January’s modest 22,000 gain.

Because ADP often serves as a preview for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), traders react aggressively to deviations. A strong print above 60,000–75,000 would suggest labor resilience, reinforcing the Fed’s “higher for longer” posture. That would likely push yields and the dollar higher, weighing on Bitcoin.

On the other hand, a soft reading, especially below 40,000, would revive the liquidity narrative. Signs of cooling labor conditions strengthen expectations for rate cuts later this year, which historically benefit risk assets and crypto.

With markets already pricing roughly two to three cuts in 2026, even modest surprises could recalibrate positioning.

Services PMI

Later Wednesday, attention shifts to the services sector with the S&P Services PMI and ISM Services PMI.

Expectations sit in the 52.3–53.5 range, consistent with steady expansion. January’s ISM Services reading came in at 53.8.

Because services account for the majority of U.S. economic activity, this report carries more influence than manufacturing.

Strong services print alongside solid employment data would reinforce economic resilience, dampening hopes for near-term easing and pressuring BTC.

However, signs of slowing demand or weaker employment could quickly change the narrative. Markets remain hyper-sensitive to any indication that growth momentum is cooling.

A combined miss across ADP and services would amplify dovish bets, potentially sparking a relief rally in Bitcoin toward the $70,000 psychological level.

Jobless Claims

Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims, expected around 215,000, versus the previous 212,000, provide a high-frequency gauge of labor-market stress.

While often overlooked compared to NFP, claims can meaningfully shape expectations ahead of Friday’s headline report.

Last week’s lower-than-expected claims reinforced tight labor conditions and coincided with BTC slipping below $68,000.

Kalshi’s CEO has defended the company’s handling of its market on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, would be “out” of power, after backlash from users who accused the platform of unfair settlement practices.

In a detailed post on X, the CEO said Kalshi does not list markets that settle directly on someone’s death.

When outcomes may involve death, he explained, the company structures rules to prevent users from profiting from it. That approach was applied to the Khamenei contract, which allowed trading on whether he would be out as Supreme Leader, a development the company argued carries major geopolitical, economic and national security implications, including potential effects on oil and commodity prices.

Under Kalshi’s rules, the market was settled at the last traded price before the time of death. All positions, regardless of when they were opened, were paid out based on that final pre-death price. In addition, the company said it reimbursed the difference for users who bought shares after the time of death at higher prices and refunded all trading fees tied to the market.

The CEO acknowledged that some users disagreed with the “death carve-out,” arguing that simpler rules without exceptions would be preferable. He said the company would work on improving how such caveats are displayed in the user interface.

However, several users pushed back sharply, accusing Kalshi of unclear rules, deleting responses, and failing to honor what they believed was a straightforward bet. Some claimed financial losses and said they would move to rival prediction markets.

Others pointed to previous contracts involving elderly public figures, arguing the company had previously allowed markets where death was a foreseeable outcome.

The dispute highlights growing tensions over how regulated U.S. prediction markets handle sensitive, mortality-linked events.

Bitcoin will see a boost if artificial intelligence disrupts the labor market or causes volatility that would prompt central banks to ease their monetary policy, says Greg Cipolaro, the research lead at crypto services company NYDIG.

Cipolaro said in a research note on Friday that AI could likely be seen as a “general-purpose technology” such as electricity, and the macroeconomic effects it would have on employment, economic growth and risk appetite will affect Bitcoin (BTC).

“If AI-driven growth occurs alongside expanding liquidity and contained real rates, that backdrop can be supportive for Bitcoin,” Cipolaro said. “But if stronger growth lifts real yields, tightens policy, and reduces the need for monetary accommodation, Bitcoin may face headwinds.”

“Conversely, if AI generates labor disruption or volatility that prompts fiscal expansion and easier monetary policy, the resulting liquidity impulse would likely favor Bitcoin,” he added.

The economy is already seeing the impact of the technology, as companies are undertaking mass layoffs fuelled by AI, as billions of dollars in investments pour into companies creating AI models.

Jack Dorsey said on Friday that his payments company Block would cut roughly 40% of its staff due to AI, and predicted that many more companies would soon follow suit.

AI transition may be volatile and uneven

Goldman Sachs’ research arm claimed in a report in August that widespread AI adoption could displace up to 7% of the US workforce, but would also likely create new job opportunities.

Related: Crypto VC Paradigm expands into AI, robotics with $1.5B fund: WSJ

Cipolaro acknowledged the transition will “pose challenges,” requiring workflow redesign, new skills, and additional investment. Still, he predicts AI will follow the same “historical pattern” as previous technological advancements.

“The implication is not that disruption will be painless, but that the equilibrium response to new technology has historically been integration, not obsolescence. Society’s response to AI will likely follow the same pattern,” he said.

“Firms that integrate it effectively will widen margins and productivity gaps. Workers who adapt will enhance their relevance. Those who resist may fall behind,” Cipolaro added.