Crypto World
Bitcoin’s 50% Drawdown ‘Priced In’ Quantum Computing Threat: Bernstein
Bernstein said Monday that Bitcoin’s selloff has already priced in much of the market’s fear around quantum computing, arguing that the threat is real but still manageable rather than an immediate existential risk.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) near 50% drawdown from its $126,198 all-time high in October 2025 is proof that the market has “priced in” several risks tied to a quantum breakthrough, partly thanks to technological progress on zero-knowledge privacy and quantum-proof cryptography that “counterbalance” the AI and quantum acceleration, Bernstein said in a Monday note shared with Cointelegraph.
The note lands two weeks after Google researchers said future quantum computers could break the elliptic-curve cryptography used across many blockchains with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in some architectures, reviving debate over how quickly Bitcoin needs a post-quantum upgrade path. This research suggested a quantum computer could crack a Bitcoin private key in nine minutes, in a theoretical scenario, which is less than Bitcoin’s 10-minute block production time.
However, Bernstein said Bitcoin core developers have “adequate time” to determine a post-quantum path. Last week, Bernstein predicted that Bitcoin has about three to five years to prepare for a post-quantum security upgrade, Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday.
Institutions will play constructive role in quantum-proofing Bitcoin
Bernstein said large institutional holders, including exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy, are likely to play a constructive role in any eventual consensus on a post-quantum upgrade.
“We expect institutional partners with now billions at stake to play a constructive role in building consensus on the post-quantum path.”
The note also highlighted the recently introduced BIP-360 proposal and added that slower consensus from Bitcoin developers is seen as responsible behavior when it comes to a $1.5 trillion asset.
BIP-360 is a draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal that proposes a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type designed to reduce long-exposure quantum risk by removing Taproot’s key-path vulnerability, though it does not itself add post-quantum digital signatures.
Bernstein said BIP-360 could be implemented as a soft fork for exposed Bitcoin addresses, but added that this would still leave around 8% of the BTC supply in inactive addresses vulnerable to future quantum breakthroughs.
Related: Bitcoiners push for quantum-resistant BIP-360 upgrade as debate heats up
Quantum-proofing Bitcoin is a social issue, not technical
The real challenge of quantum-proofing Bitcoin lies in the societal adoption element of the new standards, not the technical development, according to Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos blockchain.
“The coding work could be done this afternoon,” but Bitcoin holders would still need to migrate to this new standard, Breitman told Cointelegraph during an interview at EthCC 2026.
“If Bitcoin needed to migrate in the next month, they could do it from a technical perspective […] but they can’t get everyone to migrate their key in a month, Breitman said. “It’s going to take years for people to properly migrate their keys,” he added.
Asset manager Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, shared a similar view in a research report last Monday. He said Bitcoin’s quantum-proofing challenges are “more social than technical,” provided that its UTXO model does not have native smart contracts and that some address types are not quantum vulnerable.
However, he warned that the community needs to find consensus on how to quantum-proof wallets where the private key has been lost or is otherwise inaccessible.
Magazine: AI has dramatically accelerated the quantum threat to Bitcoin: AI Eye
Jito Foundation has signed a memorandum of understanding with Korean digital asset custodian KODA to explore institutional custody and staking support for JitoSOL in the local market.
According to Monday’s announcement, the agreement includes outreach to institutional investors and the development of compliant custody and staking pathways.
It comes as South Korea’s Financial Services Commission is expected to finalize a digital asset regulatory framework later this year.
In February, the foundation said it would work with Hanwha Asset Management to explore a JitoSOL exchange-traded fund in South Korea, pending regulatory approval. Marc Liew, head of APAC at Jito Foundation, told Cointelegraph:
We are seeing significant interest from two main camps: large financial firms looking to build the next generation of wealth management products, and institutional entities that are interested in the yield-bearing nature of JitoSOL for their corporate treasuries.
KODA provides custody infrastructure including cold storage, MPC-based key management and institutional staking, carrying $20 million in digital asset insurance coverage. The company is backed by KB Kookmin Bank and other ininvestors andolds a registered VASP license and ISMS certification.
“Through KODA’s institutional-grade vaulting system, the KODA interface will allow the client to mint JitoSOL directly from their SOL holdings,” Liew said.
Jito is a liquid staking protocol on the Solana (SOL) network where users stake SOL in exchange for JitoSOL, a token usable across decentralized finance applications. The Jito Foundation supports development, partnerships and institutional outreach.
JitoSOL has a market capitalization of about $930 million, according to CoinGecko data. The token already has institutional exposure in Europe through a 21Shares exchange-traded product, while custodians including BitGo and Hex Trust support staking directly from custody accounts.
Related: Grayscale debuts Solana ETF, joining Bitwise in SOL staking ETF race
Seoul tightens crypto market controls
South Korean regulators and policymakers are pushing for tighter controls on the crypto sector as they move toward a more structured regulatory framework.
In January, the country approved changes to its crypto licensing regime, tightening requirements for virtual asset service providers and expanding oversight to include major shareholders. In March, policymakers followed with a proposal to cap ownership stakes in domestic exchanges at 20%, part of wider efforts to impose stricter controls on market structure.
The regulatory push accelerated after a payout error at crypto exchange Bithumb in early February, when users mistakenly received 620,000 Bitcoin (BTC) instead of 620,000 Korean won, triggering a sell-off and exposing weaknesses in exchange oversight.
Following the incident, the country’s Financial Services Commission introduced stricter reconciliation requirements between exchanges’ internal ledgers and onchain balances.
Earlier this month, lawmakers began drafting legislation that would classify stablecoins as foreign exchange payment instruments and require tokenized real-world assets to be backed by assets held in trust.
More recently, the Bank of Korea called for exchange-level “circuit breakers” and stronger internal controls, with the central bank warning that the industry lacks safeguards seen in traditional financial systems.
Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?
The bitcoin price is range-bound between $68,000 support and $75,000 resistance heading into the most consequential two-week window of 2026, with three catalysts arriving back to back: the Iran ceasefire expiry on April 22, the CLARITY Act Senate markup targeted for late April, and the FOMC meeting on April 28 and 29.
Summary
- According to 24/7 Wall St. analysis, $68,000 is the key level to watch: bitcoin has held above it through both the Islamabad talks collapse and Monday’s blockade announcement, suggesting the market has already priced in the near-term bad news; if oil climbs past $110, however, analysts project bitcoin could fall to $65,000.
- If the ceasefire extends or new talks are announced before April 22, bitcoin could push back toward $75,000 to $80,000 on the same relief dynamic that drove the original ceasefire rally; a resumption of full hostilities with no diplomatic off-ramp is the scenario that breaks the $68,000 floor.
- The FOMC meeting on April 28 and 29 adds a second layer: with inflation running above 3 percent and oil still elevated above $100, Fed rate cut expectations have been effectively scrubbed from the near-term calendar, removing a key macro tailwind that historically supports bitcoin rallies.
Bitcoin (BTC) has spent 46 consecutive days in extreme fear territory, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading between 8 and 12. Despite that, whale wallets accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the largest sustained buying spree since 2013, while exchange reserves hit their lowest level since December 2017 at 2.21 million BTC. Those on-chain signals suggest long-term holders are absorbing the selling from retail and tax-driven exits rather than liquidating.
One analyst described the level plainly: “$68,000: This is the line in the sand.”
The three catalysts between April 22 and April 29 interact with each other in ways that matter. If the ceasefire extends and oil drops toward $90, rate cut expectations improve going into the FOMC meeting and bitcoin gets a macro tailwind at the same time the CLARITY Act markup could add a crypto-specific catalyst. If all three resolve favorably in sequence, analysts at 24/7 Wall St project a move toward $75,000 to $80,000 by the end of April. That scenario requires a lot to go right simultaneously.
Why the Ceasefire Expiry Is the First Domino
The Islamabad talks ran 21 hours and ended without agreement on the two core issues: Iran’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament speaker returned home saying Iran would not bow to any threats. With the US Navy now blockading Iranian ports, the conditions for a ceasefire extension look harder to meet than they were before the weekend. 24/7 Wall St noted that “tax selling ahead of April 15 and uncertainty around the war will keep overriding Bitcoin’s rally attempts” in the near term.
What Happens to Bitcoin If $68,000 Breaks
As crypto.news has reported, the Fear and Greed Index has been in extreme fear for 46 consecutive days, and the market is structurally fragile with leveraged positions still present. As crypto.news has noted, a break below $68,000 would likely trigger liquidations from short-term holders who bought the ceasefire rally, with analysts projecting a move toward $65,000 if the war resumes and oil crosses $110.
Hungary’s 16-year Orbán era ended on April 12, 2026, when opposition leader Péter Magyar’s pro-EU Tisza Party secured a commanding parliamentary majority – and with it, a plausible path to unwinding one of the EU’s most aggressive national crypto crackdowns.
The political shift is confirmed. The regulatory reversal is not. That distinction matters, and this article will interrogate exactly what the gap between those two facts means for traders, operators, and the broader MiCA implementation map across Europe.
This story carries a speculative tag for good reason: no legislative rollback has been announced, no enforcement moratorium declared, and no Tisza-led government has yet been formally seated. What exists is a changed political vector – and in crypto policy, that’s often where the real repositioning begins.
- Political event: Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party won a parliamentary majority on April 12, 2026, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule, with Orbán conceding in early projections.
- Crypto crackdown at stake: Hungary’s amended Crypto Act, effective July 1, 2025, criminalized unauthorized exchange services and imposed a SARA-certificate validation regime on all crypto-to-fiat and crypto-to-crypto transactions.
- MiCA conflict: The European Commission launched infringement proceedings against Hungary’s validation regime, citing incompatibility with the harmonized MiCA framework – proceedings that a new government could resolve swiftly.
- Revolut exposure: The UK-based fintech, serving over 2 million Hungarian clients, halted crypto buying, staking, and deposits post-July 2025 and has given no reinstatement timeline.
- What remains unverified: No confirmed policy reversal, no legislative timeline, and no formal Tisza government position on crypto regulation has been announced as of publication.
Discover: Top Crypto Presales Worth Watching This Month
What Hungary Crypto Crackdown Actually Built – and What Post Election Reversal Would Have to Dismantle
The architecture of Hungary’s crackdown is more surgical than the headlines suggested. Amendments effective July 1, 2025 created two new criminal offenses – “crypto abuse” and “unauthorized crypto exchange services” – carrying penalties of up to 2 years in prison.
But legal analysis clarified the scope: the offenses target large-scale unvalidated exchange operations and unlicensed platforms, not node-running, Bitcoin holding, or personal use of international trading platforms.
The sharper tool was the validation layer. By December 27, 2025, a transaction-level system required SARA-licensed certificates for any crypto-to-fiat or crypto-to-crypto exchange executed through domestic platforms.
The practical effect was a state-controlled regulatory gatekeeper – one that crypto insiders characterized as designed to redirect market power toward licensed incumbents and away from foreign-operated platforms.
The capital flight concern was not hypothetical: Revolut, serving over 2 million Hungarians, has completely banned crypto buying, staking, and deposits, and has offered no reinstatement date.
A rollback under Tisza would not be a single vote to repeal. It would require unwinding the SARA validation regime, amending or nullifying the criminal offense provisions, and coordinating with the European Commission to close the active infringement proceedings.
That’s three separate institutional actions – legislative, regulatory, and diplomatic – that need to move in sequence. Possible within months under a motivated government. Not guaranteed even under a favorable one.
The EU infringement angle is the fastest lever available. The Commission’s proceedings against Hungary’s validation regime rest on a clear argument: MiCA sets a harmonized floor for crypto-asset service regulation across member states, and Hungary’s SARA certificate system creates a parallel national gatekeeping layer that MiCA’s architecture does not permit.
A new government signaling EU alignment – which Tisza’s pro-EU platform explicitly does – could resolve those proceedings through administrative withdrawal rather than full legislative reform. That would remove the validation layer fastest, even before the criminal provisions are revisited.
Discover: Best Crypto Presales Gaining Traction in 2026
The post Hungary Election Political Shake-Up Could Reopen Crypto Policy and Regulation Debate appeared first on Cryptonews.
This editorial introduces a press release describing a rapid market reassessment driven by geopolitical tensions and a rise in oil prices. It notes that talks with Pakistan collapsed and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has occurred, shifting sentiment from relief to caution across energy and equity markets. The release links higher crude costs to potential inflationary pressure and central‑bank policy responses, while framing the upcoming earnings season as a gauge for how firms price energy risk. A market analyst is quoted on whether the move signals a short‑term tactic or the start of a longer supply shock, a distinction readers will weigh carefully.
Key points
- Crude prices have risen about 8% on the development, signaling tighter energy markets.
- US equity futures have slipped as markets reassess risk and potential supply disruptions.
- Emergency stockpiles are being drawn down and the IEA warns that supply pressures could intensify.
- S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow about 12.6% this quarter, with major banks set to report; forward guidance will be critical.
Why it matters
The practical effect of geopolitical risk and higher energy costs extends to inflation expectations, borrowing costs, and corporate forecasting. If the disruption proves temporary, markets may adjust; if it persists, inflation and policy responses could become louder market drivers. For readers, traders, and investors, the message is to monitor how energy risk is priced into forecasts and what earnings commentary reveals about resilience or vulnerability in the near term.
What to watch
- The ceasefire deadline of April 22 and any progress toward a resolution.
- How companies adjust guidance on energy costs and demand in earnings reports.
- Oil maintaining levels above $100 per barrel and the implications for inflation and policy.
- Market volatility in response to headlines and headline-driven risk reassessment.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company or its PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Markets Reprice as Oil Surges and Geopolitical Risks Escalate
Abu Dhabi, UAE -13 April 2026: Markets have rapidly shifted from optimism to uncertainty following the collapse of Pakistan talks and the immediate blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, reversing last week’s relief rally driven by ceasefire hopes. The move has already pushed crude prices higher by around 8%, while US equity futures have slipped, underscoring growing investor concern over potential disruptions to global energy supply.
Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, said: “The key question for markets right now is whether this is a short-term negotiating tactic or the start of a more prolonged supply shock. If it’s temporary, markets may look through it. But if this disruption persists, the inflationary consequences will be significant and will quickly move back to the top of the agenda for investors.”
Higher oil prices are already feeding into global inflation expectations, complicating the outlook for central banks that had been edging closer to rate cuts. With oil expected to remain above USD $100, policymakers may be forced to delay easing plans, adding further pressure on consumer sentiment and economic growth.
The impact is being felt globally, with emergency stockpiles being drawn down and limited buffer capacity to absorb further shocks. Warnings from the International Energy Agency suggest supply pressures could intensify in the coming weeks, increasing the risk of sustained volatility across energy markets.
This backdrop coincides with the start of US earnings season, where the S&P 500 is expected to report earnings growth of approximately 12.6%, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi are set to report, offering early insight into how rising geopolitical tensions are impacting the real economy.
Gilbert added: “Forward guidance will be critical this earnings season. While first-quarter results may not fully reflect the impact of higher oil prices, the real focus will be on whether companies are starting to factor in a prolonged disruption. Any signs of caution around consumer spending, corporate confidence, or deal activity could add another layer of pressure on markets.”
With the ceasefire deadline approaching on April 22 and no clear path to resolution, markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to headlines. Volatility is likely to persist, with investors needing to stay prepared for further downside risks if tensions continue to escalate.
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The crypto market entered a new phase of geopolitical stress on Monday morning when the US Navy began enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports at 10 AM ET, sending Brent crude above $103 a barrel and keeping bitcoin pinned near the $70,000 support level that has held since the Islamabad ceasefire talks collapsed over the weekend.
Summary
- Brent crude rose more than 7 percent to top $103 a barrel after CENTCOM confirmed the blockade, while WTI climbed 7.8 percent to $104; the moves came after the US and Iran failed to agree on extended terms during 21 hours of talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12, with VP Vance announcing the breakdown Saturday night.
- Bitcoin traded around $70,600 to $71,085 on Monday morning, holding above $70,000 through the blockade announcement; the ceasefire technically remains in effect until April 22, though neither side has indicated it will be extended following the Islamabad collapse.
- CENTCOM clarified the blockade targets maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports only and will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait to non-Iranian ports, a partial scaling back of Trump’s social media announcement which said the Navy would interdict any ship that had paid a toll to Iran.
As CNN Business reported, WTI crude is now more than 50 percent higher than before the war effectively shuttered the Strait in late February. Iran’s oil accounts for roughly 4 percent of world supply, most of it exported to China, and the blockade could cut off a significant source of funding for Tehran’s government and military. Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing wrote in a note that the move “risks creating new potential flashpoints,” raising the question of whether the US Navy would seize allied ships that had paid tolls to Iran or target Chinese vessels in the Strait. Only 17 ships passed through the waterway on Saturday, compared with an average of roughly 130 daily crossings before the war.
Bitcoin’s resilience at the $70,000 level through this weekend’s events is meaningful. The asset dropped into the low $60s when Iran first closed the Strait in late February, then rallied to $72,700 when the ceasefire was announced April 7, liquidating $427 million in short positions. The subsequent pullback to the $70,000 to $71,000 range on the Islamabad collapse and Monday’s blockade news shows the market has partially priced in a return to conflict. Holding $70,000 through a formal naval blockade is a structurally different outcome than the early-war behavior.
What the Oil Price Level Means for Bitcoin
The direct transmission between oil and bitcoin runs through inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. Every dollar oil climbs above $100 makes a rate cut less likely, keeps liquidity tighter, and suppresses risk appetite across equities and crypto simultaneously. As crypto.news has reported, bitcoin’s behavior as a high-beta risk asset during oil spikes has been consistent across the entire conflict period, with an 85 percent correlation to the Nasdaq-100 during energy price surges.
What Happens Next Before April 22
As crypto.news has noted, three catalysts now define the two weeks ahead: the ceasefire expiry on April 22, the CLARITY Act Senate markup targeted for late April, and the FOMC meeting on April 28 and 29. If the blockade tightens oil supply further and prices push past $110, analysts project bitcoin could fall toward $65,000. A last-minute diplomatic breakthrough before April 22 could reverse that move sharply, as the original ceasefire rally demonstrated.
- TRUMP price holds $2.78 support after a technical double-bottom bounce.
- Whale accumulation grows ahead of April 25 Mar-a-Lago event.
- The memecoin’s price may target $3.34 if support holds.
The Official Trump (TRUMP) token is beginning to show signs of life after weeks of sustained pressure, with price action stabilising just above a critical support level.
While the broader trend remains weak, recent movements suggest that large investors are quietly positioning themselves ahead of a highly anticipated event later this month.
At the time of writing, TRUMP was trading around $2.81, posting a modest daily gain and slightly outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which has remained relatively flat.
Technical support sparks a cautious price rebound
The recent bounce can largely be traced to a well-defined support zone around $2.78, forming a double-bottom pattern and giving traders a clear reference point for short-term positioning.
Notably, after testing the support area, the price held firm and began to edge higher, suggesting that buyers are stepping in at this range.
This kind of reaction is typically driven by market structure rather than new fundamental developments.
Repeated tests of a support are often viewed as a confirmation that a floor has been established and, in this case, $2.78 has become the immediate floor price.
As long as TRUMP holds above this support, the structure remains intact.
A sustained move below it, however, would weaken the setup and likely open the door to lower levels near $2.44.
Whale accumulation builds quiet pressure
Alongside the technical setup, steady accumulation by large holders is helping to support the market.
In recent days, several high-value wallets have been increasing their exposure to TRUMP, often moving tokens off exchanges into private storage.
This behaviour is typically associated with longer-term positioning, as it reduces immediate selling pressure and signals intent to hold.
Notably, this accumulation coincides with an upcoming event scheduled for April 25 at Mar-a-Lago for large TRUMP token holders.
The Mar-a-Lago event has created a unique layer of demand, which, while it may not be sustainable over the long term, can still provide a meaningful boost for the token’s price in the short term.
TRUMP price outlook: A narrow path toward $3.34
With support holding and whale demand building, attention is now shifting to the next key level on the chart, which is $3.34.
However, a move toward $3.34 would require continued stability above $2.78, along with enough buying pressure to push through minor barriers along the way.
And at the moment, the setup suggests a market that is range-bound but leaning slightly upward, and eyes are on whether momentum can build.
It is also worth noting that the token remains deep in a broader downtrend, having lost a significant portion of its value over the past year, meaning any upside move is likely to be viewed with caution until stronger confirmation appears.
TLDR
- Kraken identified and contained two insider-related access incidents involving limited client data.
- The company confirmed that no systems were breached and no client funds were at risk.
- About 2,000 accounts were potentially viewed, representing only 0.02% of users.
- Kraken rejected extortion demands and is cooperating with law enforcement authorities.
- Galaxy Digital reported a separate cybersecurity incident with no impact on client data or funds.
Kraken confirmed an extortion attempt involving internal access claims, while it denied any system breach or fund risk. The company said it contained two insider-related incidents and limited data exposure. It also stated that affected accounts represented about 0.02% of its global user base.
Kraken Rejects Extortion Attempt and Secures Internal Systems
Kraken reported that attackers tried to extort the firm using alleged internal access videos. However, the company said its systems remained secure, and funds stayed protected.
The firm identified two separate incidents involving support staff access and limited client data visibility. It removed both individuals quickly and enforced tighter security controls after internal investigations.
Kraken said the first case emerged in February 2025 after it received a tip about a circulating video. The company then revoked access, identified the individual, and informed affected users.
Later, Kraken received another tip about a similar video linked to a different insider. It terminated access again and notified impacted users while strengthening safeguards.
Nick Percoco, chief security officer, stated, “Our systems were never breached; funds were never at risk.” He also added that the company will not negotiate with criminal groups.
Kraken said about 2,000 accounts were potentially viewed across both incidents. However, the firm emphasized that millions of users remained unaffected by the events.
Insider Access Cases Highlight Targeted Attack Attempts
Kraken reported that extortion demands followed shortly after it blocked the latest unauthorized access. The group threatened to release materials through media channels and social platforms.
The company confirmed it will not comply with any demands from the attackers. It also said it is working closely with law enforcement agencies and industry partners.
Kraken believes the case connects to wider insider recruitment efforts targeting crypto and technology firms. It stated that investigators have enough evidence to identify suspects.
The exchange added that it continues to improve internal monitoring and employee access controls. It also said it reviews processes to prevent similar incidents.
The firm stressed that no funds were lost and no core systems were compromised. It maintained that its infrastructure remained secure throughout both events.
Related Cybersecurity Event Reported by Galaxy Digital
Galaxy Digital also disclosed a separate cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access. The company said the breach affected an isolated development workspace.
Galaxy Digital confirmed that no client funds or account data were exposed. It stated that the incident remained contained within internal systems.
The firm acted quickly to block access and investigate the situation. It also confirmed that operations continued without disruption.
Kraken said it continues to monitor threats and cooperate with authorities. Percoco stated, “We remain committed to combating insider recruitment threats globally.”
Crypto World
Coinbase selloff ‘de-risks’ stock as USDC growth turbocharges outlook, William Blair says
William Blair says Coinbase’s 26% pullback has largely “de‑risked” the stock, with weak trading now priced in as surging USDC adoption turns the exchange into a higher‑margin, cycle‑resistant bet on crypto’s share gains versus fiat.
Summary
- William Blair says Coinbase’s roughly 26% pullback from its Q1 peak has largely “de-risked” the stock, with weak trading already priced in.
- The bank highlights surging USDC adoption as a core positive, with the stablecoin’s market share climbing to about 27%, up from around 21% in 2024.
- Analysts argue USDC’s expansion creates powerful synergies for Coinbase and Circle and gives the exchange “asymmetric upside” as the crypto cycle turns.
Investment bank William Blair says Coinbase’s recent share price decline has effectively reset expectations, arguing that a roughly 26% drawdown from first‑quarter highs has “largely de‑risked” the stock by baking in soft spot and derivatives volumes. In a research note summarized by The Block and Investing.com, analysts write that “weak trading activity in early 2026 is now fully reflected in the valuation,” and that the firm continues to view Coinbase as “the best way to participate in crypto’s market‑share gains versus the fiat economy.”
The bank stresses that Coinbase is steadily evolving into a “full‑service trading platform,” pointing to the build‑out of derivatives, staking, DEX aggregation, 24/7 stock trading and prediction markets on top of its Base L2 infrastructure. That shift has already tilted the business mix: Coinbase’s Q3 2025 shareholder letter flagged subscription and services revenue — including stablecoin income — in a $710–$790 million quarterly range, while external estimates suggest trading fees now account for less than half of total revenue.
Where William Blair is most emphatic is on stablecoins. The note calls the continued growth of USD Coin “a core positive,” estimating that USDC’s share of the dollar stablecoin market has risen to roughly 27%, up from around 21% in 2024, as it steadily gains ground on Tether’s USDT. KuCoin and CEX.IO data show USDC supply has jumped about 220% since late 2023 to roughly $78–$81 billion, helping push total stablecoin capitalization to a record $315 billion in Q1 2026, with stablecoins now representing around 75% of all crypto trading volume.
That growth directly feeds Coinbase’s bottom line. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the exchange generated about $1.35 billion in USDC‑related revenue in 2025 — roughly 19% of total income — through its share of reserve interest and fees, with analysts at FinanceFeeds and CCN projecting that figure could grow two‑ to seven‑fold if USDC‑based payments and B2B settlement rails continue to scale. Coinbase also holds a significant minority stake in USDC issuer Circle and splits global reserve income 50/50, a structure William Blair says creates “powerful economic alignment” as the stablecoin expands into merchant, payroll and card‑network integrations.
William Blair’s January note described Circle as “positioned to ride a wave of USDC commercialization,” highlighting Visa’s decision to formally settle some U.S. card flows in USDC, as well as new integrations with Intuit and other enterprise software providers. The latest update reiterates that view, arguing that as USDC becomes embedded in payment flows, on‑chain treasuries and tokenized real‑world assets, Coinbase’s USDC revenue stream should become “more recurring, higher‑margin and less cyclical than trading fees,” even under tougher U.S. stablecoin rules.
On the macro side, the bank assigns a low probability to a prolonged “crypto winter” and frames Coinbase’s setup as an “asymmetric upside” bet: if markets stay muted, stablecoin and subscription revenues still support the business, while any renewed bull phase in bitcoin and ether volumes would come on top of an already improving earnings base. In that sense, USDC’s rise from a roughly one‑fifth to more than a quarter share of the stablecoin market is not just a technical detail in on‑chain plumbing; for Coinbase and Circle, William Blair argues, it is the spine of a long‑term equity story.
The crypto industry’s chief effort in U.S. policy — the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — has remained held up on a point about stablecoin yield that has little to do with the bill’s central aim to regulate U.S. crypto markets. It’s still a sticking point as bankers fired the latest volley to claim the industry’s reward programs are a danger to bank deposits.
In response to a recent White House economists report that the banks have little to fear from the rise of stablecoins, the American Bankers Association contends that the Council of Economic Advisers was analyzing the wrong scenario. Instead of looking at what would happen if Congress were to institute a ban on stablecoin yield now, it should have looked at what would happen if such returns from stablecoins were allowed.
“The CEA paper minimizes the core risk by starting from the wrong question,” according to ABA economists. “There is already ample evidence and analysis showing that a prohibition on yield for payment stablecoins is a prudent safeguard. Such a policy will allow stablecoins to mature as a payments innovation rather than as an economically risky substitute for insured bank deposits.”
This conflict over a topic already partially dealt with in last year’s Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act effectively derailed the Senate legislation for months. Though the Clarity Act’s lawmaker advocates have predicted it could get its necessary hearing in the Senate Banking Committee before the end of this month, that session hasn’t yet been scheduled.
Senators from both parties had been moved by the bankers’ arguments that their depositors (who fund their lending) would leave them in droves to chase stablecoin yield that outpaces what the banks offer in interest. So the lawmakers hashed out a compromise that would ban yield on stablecoin holdings that look like deposit accounts and only allow rewards programs for activity, akin to credit-card rewards. But the banks haven’t come out cheering it.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, the Wyoming Republican who chairs the Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee, posted Monday on social media site X, “America needs Clarity.” She’s kept a steady stream of posts going on the topic, saying over the weekend that it’s “now or never” for the bill.
The longer this debate stretches out, the more difficult it’ll be to get Clarity through the Senate process that can lead to a floor vote. While crypto insiders have been relatively vocal about the clash, bank representatives have been more reserved.
The bankers’ latest arguments suggest that the absence of intervention on stablecoin yield now would let stablecoin markets scale rapidly from $300 million to as much as $2 trillion.
“In a larger market, yield is not a minor product feature; it is the mechanism that would accelerate migration out of bank deposits,” they contend.
And though leading stablecoin issuers would deposit reserves in banks, they’re likely to go to larger institutions and not community banks, according to the ABA’s thinking.
Read More: Clarity Act returns to U.S. Senate, bank earnings: Crypto Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
- For the first time ever, Meta is expected to eclipse Google in worldwide digital advertising revenue during 2026.
- Emarketer forecasts Meta’s net advertising revenue at $243.46B compared to Google’s $239.54B.
- Meta’s advertising expansion rate is anticipated to climb to 24.1% in 2026, rising from 22.1% in 2025.
- Advanced AI capabilities and fresh advertising formats including Reels, Threads advertisements, and WhatsApp commercial placements fuel expansion.
- The trio of Meta, Google, and Amazon is predicted to command 62.3% of worldwide digital advertising expenditure in 2026.
Meta Platforms is positioned to claim the title of the world’s dominant digital advertising enterprise in 2026, based on forecasts from market intelligence firm Emarketer. This milestone would mark the first occasion Meta has surpassed Google in this competitive arena.
Emarketer’s analysis indicates Meta’s worldwide net advertising revenue will hit $243.46 billion this year. Google’s projection stands at $239.54 billion. Both numbers exclude traffic acquisition and content-related expenses.
Meta’s advertising expansion velocity is anticipated to surge to 24.1% in 2026, compared to 22.1% in 2025. Meanwhile, Google’s growth trajectory is expected to remain relatively stagnant at approximately 11.9%.
Industry observers highlight that Meta’s aggressive growth at this magnitude is uncommon. Typically, platforms experience deceleration as they expand. Meta is bucking this trend.
Artificial intelligence plays a central role. Meta’s AI-powered recommendation algorithms increased Reels viewing duration in the United States by over 30% in the latest quarter versus the prior year period. Extended viewing translates directly to additional advertising opportunities.
Reels alone is projected to deliver $50 billion in revenue over the coming twelve months, the Wall Street Journal reports. Meta additionally disclosed that its video-generation technology achieved a $10 billion revenue run rate during Q4.
Advantage+ and Emerging Ad Formats Drive Momentum
Meta’s Advantage+ automated advertising platform has emerged as a critical catalyst. The solution streamlines campaign creation and enhances marketing ROI, attracting widespread advertiser adoption.
The social media giant has simultaneously broadened its advertising real estate through new placements on WhatsApp and Threads. This expansion positions Meta as a direct rival to platforms such as X. Instagram’s Reels format remains locked in competition with TikTok and YouTube Shorts for short-form video advertising dollars.
Emarketer analyst Max Willens credited Meta with demonstrating “incredible patience” — cultivating user engagement across Reels, Threads, and WhatsApp prior to activating monetization features. The approach is yielding substantial returns.
Meta’s infrastructure investment is projected to reach $135 billion this year as the company accelerates its AI capabilities.
Google Confronts Challenges Across Multiple Sectors
Google is navigating obstacles that extend beyond Meta’s ascension. The search giant’s portion of the US search advertising market is forecast to slip beneath 50% for the first time in more than ten years, declining to 48.5% in 2026.
Amazon has gradually eroded Google’s search supremacy as growing numbers of shoppers initiate product searches directly within the e-commerce marketplace.
Google’s varied business structure also constrains advertising revenue expansion. YouTube Premium diverts a significant user base away from ad-supported content, restricting monetization potential.
Smaller competitors experience heightened vulnerability from this transformation. Snap and Pinterest are viewed as particularly susceptible to advertising budget reductions, as marketer spending concentrates increasingly among dominant platforms.
Google and Meta both declined requests for comment.
Emarketer clarified that recent judicial decisions affecting Meta and YouTube were excluded from the analysis, as projections were finalized prior to those rulings.
Collectively, Meta, Google, and Amazon are forecast to control 62.3% of global digital advertising expenditure in 2026, advancing from 59.9% in 2025.
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