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Bitcoin’s (BTC) parabolic era may be over as old peaks are tested

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BTC's price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)

Since its inception, bitcoin has been like a daredevil climber scaling new heights, rarely looking back at the ledges it left behind. Its price seldom retraced to previous bull-market peaks, even during long, grueling bear markets.

But that pattern seems to have changed, suggesting that the market has matured, and the era of runaway, parabolic gains is behind us.

BTC trades near old peak

Bitcoin has been hovering around $70,000 since early February – well below the $126,000 peak of the 2023-2025 bull run.

That $70,000 mark is important because it was the record high in the 2019–2022 market cycle. In other words, this bear market has retraced all the way back to a previous summit.

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This is unusual. In earlier bear markets, such as those in 2014 and 2018, bitcoin never returned to prior cycle highs. The exception was 2022, when prices dipped under the 2017 high of $20,000. At the time, analysts dismissed it as an anomaly, blaming crypto scams and massive deleveraging.

What makes the current retrace remarkable is that it’s happening without any extreme catalysts. The market has simply returned to a prior peak as part of the natural ebb of a bear cycle.

BTC's price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)

Slowing growth and the law of diminishing returns

Each new bull run isn’t generating the parabolic gains of the past. Pushing prices far beyond previous peaks is getting harder, which makes retraces to old highs more natural. In other words, previous peaks are no longer untouchable.

This is a clear example of the law of diminishing returns. As bitcoin becomes more expensive, moving prices higher requires ever-larger sums of capital. The days when modest inflows could trigger massive rallies are largely behind us, making price movements more measured and predictable.

Looking at historical growth highlights this trend:

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  • The 2013 peak was 38 times higher than 2011.
  • The 2017 peak was 16 times higher than 2013.
  • By 2021, the increase slowed to just 3 times the 2017 level.
  • The 2025 peak of over $126K was less than twice the 2021 peak.

While prices are still rising, the pace of growth is steadily slowing.

Institutionalization and broader market participation

Part of this slowdown comes from the institutionalization of Bitcoin and the growth of the derivatives market. Traders now have structured ways to bet on volatility, timing, and market direction, not just price increases. This broader participation has tempered extreme swings.

This is very different from the pre-2020 era, when trading was largely limited to buying and selling on the spot market. Back then, only bullish believers of bitcoin actively participated, often jumping in at the first sign of a dip.

Behavioral patterns and what’s next

Old peaks often act as strong support levels due to a behavioral concept called anchoring bias, where traders fixate on previous highs as reference points.

Many who missed the initial breakout tend to buy when prices return to these familiar levels, fueling the next leg of a bull run. This behavioral tendency, combined with the self-reinforcing nature of support and resistance, helps explain why the recent downtrend has stalled around $70,000.

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A strong bounce from this level could signal that the bear market has run its course, similar to late 2022, when the downtrend ended around $20,000.

However, if the law of diminishing returns is any guide, the next uptrend may be more measured and “tradfi-like,” rather than the frenzied rallies of the old speculative days.

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Crypto World

These catalysts could bump bitcoin as Trump hands three-week target to end Iran war

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BTC price rises as Trump says U.S. in talks with 'new regime' in Iran, threatens oil infrastructure if deal fails

Asian stocks posted their best day in months and S&P 500 futures jumped after the president said he would address the nation Wednesday night with an “important update” on Iran. Oil pared losses as the UAE reportedly prepares to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.

Bitcoin traded at $67,950 on Tuesday, up 0.2% over 24 hours, as a wave of optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict lifted risk assets across the board. Ether rose 1.6% to $2,100, its strongest daily move in weeks.

XRP gained 0.5% to $1.34, dogecoin added 0.5% to $0.09, and BNB edged up 0.4% to $616. Solana’s SOL was the notable laggard, dropping 0.7% to $83.14 and extending weekly losses to 8.7%.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 4%, its best session since the war began, with nearly 10 stocks rising for every one that fell. Asian tech jumped 6.5%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix surging more than 9% each. S&P 500 futures climbed, and the index notched its biggest single-day gain since May.

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The catalyst was Trump telling reporters he expected the war to end within two to three weeks and that a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite for concluding the conflict. He announced a national address Wednesday at 9 p.m.

Eastern to provide what he called an “important update.” Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian told the EU Council president that Tehran has “the necessary will to end this war” but expects guarantees against future aggression.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, which would make it the first Gulf state to enter the conflict as a combatant. Brent crude edged back above $105 after Tuesday’s decline.

The crypto market’s reaction was muted relative to equities, a pattern that has held for weeks. Bitcoin has spent the entire war grinding between $65,000 and $73,000 while equities swing violently on each headline. The gap between crypto’s sideways range and the stock market’s correction-level drawdown remains the most notable divergence in the cross-asset picture.

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There were reasons for cautious optimism beyond geopolitics. Morgan Stanley received approval for a bitcoin ETF charging just 14 basis points, 11 below the category average. The product opens access to Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors managing $6.2 trillion, a channel that has not previously had direct bitcoin ETF exposure.

Alex Blume, CEO of Two Prime, pointed to three catalysts that could drive bitcoin higher in Q2 — the Morgan Stanley ETF, continued success of Strategy’s STRC preferred equity product in funding bitcoin purchases, and a swift resolution to the Iran war.

“A lot of market uncertainty could be resolved soon,” Blume said in an email to CoinDesk. “Coupled with new buying power, a strong Q2 may be ahead.”

Gold advanced for a fourth straight day to near $4,700, though its nearly 12% decline in March was its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The precious metal’s ongoing weakness during an active war continues to break historical precedent.

Whether Trump’s Wednesday address produces an actual off-ramp or just another headline in a month that’s been full of them will determine if this rally holds. As one analyst put it, “I’m not convinced over the longer term. Investors will soon want concrete evidence that the end of the war is in sight.”

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US Treasury Seeks Comment on State-Level Stablecoin Regulatory Criteria

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Government, US Government, United States, Stablecoin, Genius Act

The US Department of the Treasury issued a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) on Wednesday and is seeking public comment on proposed regulations for state-level stablecoin governance frameworks under the GENIUS Act.

The GENIUS stablecoin regulatory framework, also known as the “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act,” gives states the authority to regulate stablecoins with a market cap of less than $10 billion, as long as the regulations do not deviate significantly from federal policies.

The Treasury outlined several non-negotiable stablecoin regulations that must be in line with Federal regulations, including a 1:1 reserve backing with cash or high-quality cash equivalents and monthly reporting requirements. 

Government, US Government, United States, Stablecoin, Genius Act
The NPRM published by the US Treasury Department. Source: US Department of the Treasury

States must also comply fully with federal anti-money laundering and sanctions policies for stablecoins, while upholding bans on token rehypothication, or using the same asset to support multiple claims.

Under the proposal, states are allowed to impose their own liquidity, reserve, risk management, regulatory procedures, enforcement and administrative rules, as long as the rules impose higher financial thresholds or are more restrictive than the federal regulations. 

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“State-level regulatory regimes must lead to regulatory outcomes that are at least as stringent and protective as the Federal regulatory framework,” the proposal said.

The public must submit comments within 60 days of the NPRM announcement. Once a stablecoin issuer passes the $10 billion threshold, it will automatically be under the regulatory jurisdiction of the federal government, meaning the largest stablecoin issuers will be regulated exclusively at the federal level.

Related: FSB flags dollar stablecoins as bigger risk for emerging markets in annual report

GENIUS Act becomes law, but uncertainty remains over yield-bearing stablecoins 

US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law in July, which was considered a landmark moment for crypto regulations.

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Despite the landmark regulations, uncertainty about yield-bearing stablecoins and whether stablecoin issuers can share interest with token holders has stalled the CLARITY crypto market structure bill in Congress.

Some crypto companies, led by Coinbase, argue that yield-bearing stablecoins provide savers with a competitive alternative to traditional savings accounts, which typically have interest rates far below 1%.

The banking lobby continues to oppose yield-bearing stablecoins over fears that the tokens will cause deposit flight and erode the sector’s market share.

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Magazine: GENIUS Act reopens the door for a Meta stablecoin, but will it work?