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Bitcoin’s First Weekly Trend Break in 2+ Years: Is BTC Done?

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) closed a weekly candle below its 200-week exponential moving average for the first time since October 2023, ending an 882-day uptrend. The break redraws the deck for long-term traders, shifting attention to on-chain cost bases and how Bitcoin has historically interacted with this guardrail during prior cycles. The move underscores the risk of a longer, more drawn-out recovery, even as market focus rests on the asset’s price behavior around key macro and on-chain metrics.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin closed below the 200-week EMA near $67,628, snapping an extensive uptrend that had persisted since late 2023 and signaling a potential shift in the long-run trend line.
  • Historical recoveries back above the 200-week EMA varied in duration: roughly 14 weeks in 2018, about eight weeks after the Covid liquidity shock in March 2020, and nearly 30 weeks in 2022; the average spell below the EMA has hovered around 17–18 weeks.
  • On-chain momentum has cooled. Liveliness, the metric that compares coin days destroyed to coin days created, has declined below its 30-day and 90-day moving averages, suggesting reduced spending activity and slowed capital rotation.
  • The realized price band around $55,000 remains a central reference, with the shifted realization near $42,000 projecting the metric forward and highlighting deeper demand zones during drawdowns.
  • A reclaim of the 200-week EMA would reestablish the long-term trend above a critical threshold; failure to reclaim keeps the focus on the $55,000 realized price and the lower band near $42,000 as potential liquidity zones.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Market context: The move comes amid a broader environment where on-chain indicators and macro liquidity shape risk sentiment. Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can stabilize near long-term anchors while macro noise—ranging from regulatory signals to liquidity cycles—adds a layer of caution to the next leg of any potential rally.

Why it matters

The weekly break below the 200-week EMA is not a call to panic; rather, it reframes the path of the next recovery. The 200-week EMA has functioned as a long-run dividing line between expansion and deeper correction. When price has dipped beneath it in past cycles, the duration before reclaiming the line varied, but the pattern often culminated in a prolonged accumulation phase rather than an immediate, V-shaped bounce. The current scenario awaits a similar test of resilience, with market participants evaluating whether history will repeat or diverge in a markedly different macro environment.

On-chain activity adds another layer to the interpretation. Liveliness, which measures the balance of coin days created versus destroyed after adjusting for internal transfers, has cooled from its earlier peak. A decline here points to a slowdown in active spending and a shift in capital rotation—factors that can slow the speed at which Bitcoin reclaims macro-level supports. The reading echoes past cycles where similar rollovers preceded extended periods of accumulation, a signal that investors may need to weather a more drawn-out corrective phase before new highs emerge.

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Meanwhile, the realized price bands—around $55,000—and the shifted realized price near $42,000 provide a framework for identifying demand zones. These levels have historically delineated the major caches of value during drawdowns and have served as anchors for long-term investors seeking to accumulate on-chain cost bases. The convergence of price with these bands, especially while hovering between the 200-week EMA and the realized price cluster, has during prior cycles signaled a protracted period of consolidation before a renewed uptrend.

There is a broader ecosystem thread to track as well. A referenced analysis suggests that if Bitcoin can reclaim the 200-week EMA, the path toward reestablishing a long-term uptrend remains intact, with the threshold serving as a barometer for macro confidence. Conversely, failing to recapture the EMA keeps the focus on the $55k realized price and the lower $42k band, where liquidity concentration could come into play and influence the next move. The dynamic between these levels will likely shape market expectations for the next several months.

In the narrative of market storytelling, observers may recall related discussions around Bitcoin’s troughs and rallies. For instance, a separate analysis explored signals from Tether that some see as potential hints of a bottom or a prelude to a larger rally. While not deterministic, such signals contribute to the mosaic of factors traders weigh when assessing the durability of any price move and the potential for renewed demand as the market digests both on-chain and macro inputs.

What to watch next

  • Watch for a weekly close back above the 200-week EMA (around $67,600) to signal a potential reversion of this test and the resilience of long-term support.
  • Monitor shifts in on-chain liveliness: a sustained move above the key moving averages could indicate renewed activity and capital rotation supporting a longer-term revival.
  • Track the realized price zone around $55,000 and the lower band near $42,000 for any congestion or liquidity concentration that could influence the next leg of the cycle.
  • Observe potential catalysts—whether macro liquidity conditions soften, or on-chain fundamentals return to a more active phase—that could accelerate re-entry into the longer-term uptrend.
  • Keep an eye on related market signals and sentiment indicators, including the behavior of other assets and ETF-related flows that may impact Bitcoin’s risk appetite in coming months.

Sources & verification

  • Bitcoin price behavior around the 200-week EMA and corresponding price levels cited in the summary analysis.
  • On-chain liveliness metrics and their interpretation in relation to price cycles, as discussed by market observers.
  • Public posts and analyses referencing the 200-week EMA as a guide to long-term trend dynamics, including remarks by market commentators on potential resistance if the EMA loses its role as support.
  • Realized price data and related interpretations of demand zones and liquidity bands used to frame the current accumulation context.
  • Related discussions exploring signals such as those around Tether and Bitcoin bottom signals, which provide context for broader market narrative dynamics.

Bitcoin’s long-term trend in focus

Bitcoin’s recent weekly close beneath the 200-week EMA has nudged the market into a phase where long-horizon considerations gain prominence. The line, which traders monitor as an indicator of secular momentum, has historically separated periods of expansion from deeper contractions. The current reading does not automatically imply a new bear market; instead, it emphasizes the need for patience as the market tests whether prevailing on-chain and macro conditions can sustain a move back above the trend line.

From a broader perspective, the real guiding question is the durability of demand zones around the realized price bands. If that demand proves resilient and buying interest returns with conviction, a re-acceleration could unfold, with the 200-week EMA reclaim acting as a catalyst. If not, investors may expect a more protracted period of consolidation, during which accumulation phases could stretch across multiple quarters as market players calibrate entries and risk exposure in light of evolving liquidity conditions.

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The central takeaway remains: the interaction between price, on-chain activity, and long-term trend markers will continue to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. While a single weekly candle below a key moving average does not doom the market, it does reset the frame for what comes next, demanding disciplined risk assessment and a keen eye on the dynamics of demand, liquidity, and macro sentiment that drive the space.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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How North Korea’s 6-month long secret espionage program has crypto community rethinking security

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How North Korea's 6-month long secret espionage program has crypto community rethinking security

When Drift disclosed the details behind its $270 million exploit, the most unsettling part wasn’t the scale of the loss — it was how it happened.

According to the team behind the protocol, the attack wasn’t a smart contract bug or a clever piece of code manipulation. It was a six-month campaign involving fake identities, in-person meetings across multiple countries and carefully cultivated trust. The attackers, allegedly from North Korea, didn’t just find a vulnerability in the system. They became part of it.

This new threat is now forcing a broader reckoning across decentralized finance.

For years, the industry has treated security as a technical problem, something that could be solved with audits, formal verification and better code. But the Drift incident suggests something far more complex: that the real vulnerabilities may lie outside the codebase altogether.

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Alexander Urbelis, chief information security officer (CISO) at ENS Labs, argues the framing itself is already outdated.

“We need to stop calling these ‘hacks’ and start calling them what they are: intelligence operations,” Urbelis told CoinDesk. “The people who showed up at conferences, who met Drift contributors in person across multiple countries, who deposited a million dollars of their own money to build credibility: that’s tradecraft. It’s the kind of thing you’d expect from a case officer, not a hacker.”

If that characterization holds, then Drift represents a new playbook: one where attackers behave less like opportunistic hackers and more like patient operators embedding themselves socially before making a move onchain.

“North Korea isn’t scanning for vulnerable contracts anymore. They’re scanning for vulnerable people… That’s not hacking. That’s running agents,” Urbelis added.

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The tactics themselves aren’t entirely new.

Investigations in recent years have shown North Korean operatives infiltrating crypto firms by posing as developers, passing job interviews and even securing roles under fake identities. But the Drift incident suggests those efforts have escalated — from gaining access through hiring pipelines to running months-long, in-person relationship-building operations before executing an attack.

‘The Achilles’ heel’

That shift is what has many security leaders most concerned. Even the most rigorously audited protocol can still fail if a contributor is compromised.

David Schwed, chief operating officer of SVRN and a former CISO at both Robinhood and Galaxy, sees the Drift case as a wake-up call.

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“Protocols need to understand what they’re up against. These aren’t simple exploits. These are well-planned, months-long operations with dedicated resources, fabricated identities, and a deliberate human element,” Schwed told CoinDesk. “That human element is the Achilles’ heel for many organizations.”

Many DeFi teams remain small, fast-moving and built on trust. But when a handful of individuals control critical access, compromising one can be enough.

Schwed argues that the response needs to be updated. “The answer is a well-fortified security program that protects not just the technology, but the people and the process… Security needs to be foundational to the project and the team.”

Some protocols are already adjusting. At Jupiter, one of Solana’s largest DeFi platforms, the baseline of audits and formal verification remains, but leaders claim it’s no longer sufficient.

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“Clearly, securing code via multiple independent audits, open sourcing, and formal verification is just table stakes. The surface area for attacks has broadened substantially,” said COO Kash Dhanda.

That broader surface now includes governance, contributors and operational security. Jupiter has expanded its use of multisigs and timelocks while investing in detection systems and internal training.

“Given that flesh is more vulnerable than code, we’re also updating opsec training and monitoring for key team members,” Dhanda said.

Even then, he added, “there is no end-state for security” and complacency remains the biggest risk.

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For protocols like dYdX, the Drift incident reinforces a reality that can’t be engineered away entirely.

“It’s an unfortunate fact of life that crypto projects are being increasingly targeted by state-sponsored bad actors… developers must take precautions to prevent and mitigate the impact of social engineering compromises, but users should also be aware that given the increasing sophistication of bad actors the risk of such compromises cannot be totally eliminated,” said David Gogel, COO of dYdX Labs.

That evolving threat model is also shifting responsibility toward users themselves.

“Users who are active in DeFi should take the time to understand the technical architecture of protocols or smart contracts that hold their funds, and should factor into their risk assessments the role and nature of any multisigs for software upgrades and the possibility that those could be maliciously compromised,” Gogel added.

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‘Threat model’

For some founders, the Drift exploit underscores a more uncomfortable conclusion: that trust itself has become a vulnerability.

“The Drift exploit wasn’t a code vulnerability. It was a six-month intelligence operation that exploited trust between humans,” said Lucas Bruder, CEO of Jito Labs.

In practice, that means designing systems that assume compromise — not just bugs.

“Smart contract audits are table stakes. The real attack surface is your team, your multisig signers, and every device they touch.”

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That mindset is becoming central to how DeFi approaches security. Schwed of SVRN says it starts with asking not just how a protocol works, but how it could fail.

“Start with a threat model. Ask yourself, how can I be exploited? If one of the project owners becomes compromised, what’s the blast radius of that scenario?”

In that sense, the Drift exploit may be remembered less for the funds lost than for what it revealed — that the biggest risks in DeFi may no longer live in the code, but in the people who run it.

Read more: How North Korea Infiltrated the Crypto Industry

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Decoupling From Tech Stocks, Reshaped by War and AI

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Bitcoin price is doing something it hasn’t done in months by moving on its own terms, breaking the recent bearish prediction. Trading near $68,500 and dropping by 2% today, BTC is quietly separating from the tech equity complex that dragged it lower through most of early 2026.

The catalyst isn’t a halving narrative or ETF inflow. It’s war, and the AI valuation crisis that is hitting software stocks. The full implications for price haven’t been priced in yet.

Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict on Feb. 28, Bitcoin’s correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) collapsed from near-perfect alignment at close to 1.0 to just 0.13, a level signaling near-total decoupling, before partially recovering to around 0.7.

Over that same period, Bitcoin has risen more than 5% while IGV has dropped more than 2%. The gap is widening. Investors appear to be rotating out of software equities, where AI-driven margin compression is hammering SaaS multiples, and treating Bitcoin as a macro hedge instead, a role gold has occupied for decades. Geopolitical shock has a way of accelerating these thesis shifts.

The 1 year chart still shows both assets deeply underwater, Bitcoin down 10%, IGV off 15%, but the divergence since late February suggests the relationship is fundamentally changing.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reclaim $75K as the Tech Decoupling Deepens?

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At current levels, Bitcoin is trading roughly 30% below its October all-time high after a peak-to-trough decline of approximately 50%. IGV peaked slightly earlier and fell about 35% from its own top, a shallower drawdown, but one now accelerating as AI disruption fears mount across enterprise software. The divergence in recovery trajectories is stark.

The key technical level to watch is the $67,000 range. The level has flipped from resistance to support following this week’s move. A hold above that level keeps the bull case intact. The next meaningful resistance cluster sits near $74,000–$75,000, where prior consolidation and moving average confluence converge.

Bitcoin price is doing something it hasn't done in months by moving on its own terms, breaking the recent bearish prediction.
BTC USD, Tradingview

For the bulls, geopolitical tension that sustains macro-hedge demand will keep IGV’s correlation suppressed near 0.3–0.5, and BTC breaks toward $75,000–$78,000 over the next 2–4 weeks.

But, correlation can drift back toward 0.7 as markets stabilize; BTC consolidates between $67,000 and $72,000 while macro catalysts remain ambiguous. A breakdown below $67,000, or a re-coupling with equities if risk-off sentiment deepens, reopens a path toward the $54,000 level flagged by more bearish technicals.

Year-to-date, Bitcoin remains down roughly 10%, matching IGV’s losses almost exactly. That symmetry is now breaking. Whether this week’s move is a structural shift or a head-fake is the only question that matters right now.

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Bitcoin Tests Key Levels

Bitcoin at $68,500 is recovering, but a spot BTC position from here still means waiting on macro catalysts, regulatory timelines, and a 30%-plus move just to return to all-time highs. Early-stage infrastructure in the Bitcoin ecosystem offers a different risk profile entirely.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself at the intersection of two converging trends: Bitcoin’s resurgence as a macro asset and the explosive demand for scalable smart contract infrastructure. The project claims to be the first Bitcoin Layer 2 integrating the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM), delivering sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution while anchoring security to Bitcoin’s base layer.

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The presale has raised $32 million at a current price of $0.0136, with 36% APY staking rewards live for early participants. The Decentralized Canonical Bridge enables native BTC transfers into the ecosystem without custodial risk.

For traders who believe Bitcoin’s decoupling thesis has legs, research Bitcoin Hyper as a higher-beta way to express that conviction at the infrastructure layer.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Decoupling From Tech Stocks, Reshaped by War and AI appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Solana Foundation launches security overhaul days after $270 million Drift exploit

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Solana Foundation launches security overhaul days after $270 million Drift exploit

The Solana Foundation announced a suite of security initiatives on Monday, just five days after decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Drift Protocol suffered a $270 million exploit carried out by a North Korean state-affiliated group following a six-month social engineering campaign.

The centerpiece is Stride, a structured evaluation program led by Asymmetric Research that will assess Solana DeFi protocols against eight security pillars and publish its findings publicly. The foundation also introduced the Solana Incident Response Network (SIRN), a membership-based group of security firms and researchers focused on real-time crisis response.

The initiatives address part of the problem exposed by Drift, but not the mechanics that actually caused the loss. Drift’s smart contracts were not compromised, and its code passed audits. The vulnerability was human: The attackers spent six months building relationships with Drift contributors and compromised their devices through a malicious code repository and a fake TestFlight app.

Under Stride, protocols with more than $10 million in total value locked (TVL) that pass the evaluation will receive ongoing operational security and active threat monitoring funded by Solana Foundation grants, with coverage calibrated to each protocol’s risk profile.

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For protocols with more than $100 million in TVL, the foundation will also fund formal verification, a mathematical method that checks every possible execution path in a smart contract to guarantee correctness.

In addition to Asymmetric Research, founding members include OtterSec, Neodyme, Squads, and ZeroShadow. The network is available to all Solana protocols but prioritized by TVL.

Stride’s formal verification, however, would not have caught the North Korean attack, which used the compromised devices to obtain multisig approvals that were then locked into durable nonce transactions and executed weeks later.

Neither would 24/7 monitoring of onchain activity, because the transactions were valid by design and indistinguishable from legitimate administrative actions until they were used to drain the vaults. The attack exploited the gap between onchain correctness and offchain human trust, a gap no smart contract audit or monitoring tool is built to cover.

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SIRN, however, could have helped with the response. ZachXBT, an onchain security expert, criticized stablecoin issuer Circle Internet (CRCL) for failing to freeze over $230 million of its stolen dollar-pegged USDC during a six-hour window after the attack began.

A dedicated incident response network with established relationships to bridge operators, exchanges and stablecoin issuers might have shortened the response time. Whether it would have been fast enough to prevent the Wormhole bridging and obfuscation through Tornado Cash is an open question.

The foundation was careful to note that the programs “do not transfer the underlying responsibility away from the protocols themselves,” a line that reads differently after Drift’s postmortem revealed that individual contributor devices were the entry point for a nation-state attack.

Solana already hosts several free security tools for builders, including Hypernative for threat detection, Range Security for real-time monitoring, and Neodyme’s Riverguard for attack simulation.

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Crypto ETPs Rebound With $224M Inflows Led by XRP: CoinShares

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Crypto ETPs Rebound With $224M Inflows Led by XRP: CoinShares

Cryptocurrency investment products recorded minor inflows last week despite mixed geopolitical signals and increasingly hawkish investor expectations.

Global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) clocked $224 million in inflows last week, following a $414 million outflow a week before, CoinShares reported on Tuesday.

The fresh inflows brought total assets under management to about $131.8 billion, roughly in line with levels seen at the same time last year. Year-to-date inflows also totaled about $1.2 billion, compared with $960 million over the same period last year.

The inflows marked a brief rebound in sentiment before later-week macro data and policy expectations reversed momentum, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said.

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XRP leads inflows as Bitcoin trails closely

XRP (XRP) led inflows with about $120 million, contributing more than half of net weekly inflows.

The gains marked XRP’s largest weekly inflows since mid-December 2025, Butterfill noted, bringing its year-to-date inflows to $159 million.

Crypto ETP flows by asset (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Bitcoin (BTC) ETPs followed closely with $107 million of inflows, bringing year-to-date flows to slightly above $1 billion. Of those gains, only around $22 million was contributed by US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which remain in negative territory year-to-date.

Solana (SOL) also saw minor inflows totaling around $35 million last week, with steady inflows this year representing 10% of total assets under management.

On the other hand, Ether (ETH) investment products continued to lag, posting $53 million in outflows. That followed $222 million in outflows the prior week, bringing year-to-date outflows to $327 million.

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Related: CoinShares stock makes US debut on Nasdaq following SPAC merger

CoinShares’ Butterfill attributed the negative sentiment around Ether to developments tied to the CLARITY Act, a major piece of crypto legislation closely linked to stablecoins, which are largely issued on the Ethereum blockchain. Following months of delays, US Senate Banking Committee member Bill Hagerty said Monday that he expects a potential path for the bill in the coming weeks.

Geographically, Switzerland led last week’s inflows at roughly $157 million, followed by Germany and the US, which both recorded about $28 million each, and Canada with $11 million.

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