Crypto traders are already positioning around SpaceX’s IPO through a synthetic perpetual market, and one large account is sitting on paper gains—highlighting how quickly equity speculation can migrate into leveraged derivatives.

According to data on Hypurrscan, a whale has opened an isolated 2x leveraged long on “xyz:SPCX,” a synthetic pre-IPO perpetual contract tied to SpaceX. The position is currently valued at about $22.29 million and, based on entry and recent pricing, is showing more than $1.15 million in unrealized profit after only limited funding costs.

Key takeaways

• The whale’s isolated 2x long on synthetic SPCX is worth about $22.29 million, with unrealized profit of roughly $1.15 million.
• Synthetic SPCX trades near $175—around 30% above SpaceX’s $135 IPO offer price—suggesting traders expect a strong first-day move.
• IPO history cited from Jay Ritter’s research shows first-day outperformance often benefits offer-price holders more than late buyers.
• Multiple valuation estimates from traditional investors point to potential post-listing downside, which could matter for leveraged traders if prices revert.

A large leveraged bet already in the money

The Hypurrscan listing for address 0x9cc10bd3c7e2486c0ae4623e4f7cc3ff143fac56 shows the trader holding an isolated long position on xyz:SPCX. The notional size is about $22.29 million, and the account appears to have entered near $168.

With the synthetic market recently trading around $175, the whale’s position is left with an estimated unrealized gain of approximately $1.15 million. The position has reportedly incurred just over $500 in funding fees so far—an important detail for traders because funding can erode profits on leveraged perpetuals if the market remains on one side for long periods.

While the account shows strong mark-to-market performance, it also implies downside risk. The liquidation level is reported around $93.27; if SPCX were to fall to that threshold, the position could face an estimated loss of roughly $9.4 million.

Why synthetic SPCX is trading at a premium

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share and plans to raise about $75 billion by selling roughly 555.6 million shares, putting the company’s valuation at around $1.77 trillion. The stock is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

In the synthetic perpetual market, traders are effectively paying up. At roughly $175, SPCX is trading about 30% above the IPO price, according to the coverage and chart references cited in the original reporting. That premium implies crypto derivatives participants are leaning toward a strong early rally—potentially before broader equity trading fully reflects the listing.

Market-implied expectations across other platforms align with the same direction. Bloomberg cited derivatives “implied” valuations suggesting SpaceX could be priced around $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the IPO valuation. Polymarket also reportedly placed odds that the company will land in a $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion market-cap range on the first day of trading.

For traders, the practical takeaway is that the synthetic market is not merely tracking the IPO; it is pricing in a sequence of outcomes. When the derivative premium is large, it can reflect optimism—but it can also set up crowded positioning, especially if the first prints in the equity market fail to match expectations.

IPO dynamics: first-day strength doesn’t always help later entrants

Even with a 30% premium signaling aggressive demand, IPO history cautions against interpreting early pricing as a durable trend—particularly for investors entering after the initial enthusiasm.

According to Jay Ritter’s IPO database (as cited in the original article), US IPOs from 2020 to 2025 averaged about 30% first-day gains. However, Ritter’s research also emphasizes that much of that upside accrues to investors who actually receive shares at the offer price. Buyers who arrive only after the opening print typically face a different setup as sentiment and order-flow normalize.

Ritter’s longer-run analysis (2001 to 2024) further indicates that companies with positive first-day returns averaged a 29.6% debut gain, but later underperformed the broader market by about 8.5 percentage points over the next three years. The pattern becomes sharper for higher-valuation offerings: IPOs with trailing sales above $100 million and price-to-sales ratios above 40 reportedly delivered an average three-year return of -44.8% for buyers at the first close.

The original reporting frames SpaceX as one of the most oversubscribed IPOs in recent memory, and it notes that the company is going public at nearly 94 times trailing sales—an attribute that, in Ritter’s framework, is associated with more challenging post-listing performance.

Recent listings cited as analogs underline how quickly “day-one” attention can fade. Cerebras (CBRS) reportedly opened significantly above its offer price, then declined sharply after the first session. The original article also references post-debut pressure in deals like Rivian (RIVN) and Uber (UBER), connecting part of the drawdown to the timing of lockup expirations that can increase supply.

Traditional valuation warnings add pressure to the bullish trade

Beyond derivatives pricing, traditional valuation perspectives also raise the question of whether synthetic SPCX’s premium is justified.

Morningstar’s Nicholas Owens, as cited in the original coverage, valued SpaceX at about $780 billion—roughly 55% below the IPO price—arguing that the stock appears significantly overvalued and that investors should wait for the share price to settle after listing.

NYU professor Aswath Damodaran, also cited, estimated fair value around $1.25–1.3 trillion and described the $135 offer as “rich.” Another view from analyst The Fundamental Investor, referenced via an X post, suggested the stock is likely to trade below the IPO price, potentially leaving early retail buyers underwater for years.

For crypto traders using leverage, these warnings matter because they intersect with the mechanics of perpetuals. If SPCX begins to mean-revert toward a range closer to offer-price expectations, leveraged longs—especially those initiated at the first signs of premium—can unwind quickly due to margin constraints and liquidation risk.

That makes the whale position’s margin profile a key monitoring point. With liquidation indicated around the low $90s, the trade has meaningful room on paper if the market stays elevated, but it also carries asymmetric risk if the IPO underwhelms relative to what the synthetic premium implies.

Going forward, readers should watch how the synthetic SPCX premium evolves once the IPO opens on Nasdaq—particularly whether early equity prints validate the ~30% uplift or trigger a rapid premium compression in the perpetual market. Until then, the gap between traditional valuation skepticism and crypto derivatives pricing is likely to remain the central tension for anyone taking leveraged exposure.

Coinbase has moved deeper into the AI-agent trend by launching “Coinbase for Agents,” a tool designed to let artificial intelligence models connect to a user’s Coinbase account to make payments and execute crypto trades on the user’s behalf.

Announced Thursday in a blog post, the offering targets a growing narrative across the sector: that increasingly capable AI systems will perform many small, repetitive transactions—such as automated trading routines and micro-payments—faster and more consistently than manual workflows.

Key takeaways

• Coinbase for Agents is intended to let AI models connect to a user’s exchange account and submit trades or strategies based on prompts.
• The company says agent payments can be enabled through Coinbase’s AI payments protocol x402, aimed at letting bots pay for data services involved in strategies.
• Access is offered via both a model context protocol (MCP) approach and a developer-friendly command-line interface.
• Coinbase also introduced “Coinbase Advisor,” an agent integrated into its app that the company describes as SEC- and CFTC-registered for advisory guidance.
• Recent academic research raises a caution: in studied cases, token holders reportedly lost more than agent treasuries gained on paper, and many projects showed limited proof of fully autonomous trading.

What Coinbase for Agents actually enables

Coinbase says Coinbase for Agents allows AI models such as ChatGPT and Claude to connect with a user’s exchange account. Once connected, the models can be prompted to place trades or carry out pre-defined trading strategies.

The tool is positioned for developers and integrations rather than as a standalone consumer feature. Coinbase said it will be available through two routes: via a model context protocol (MCP), which supports connecting AI models to external systems, and through a command-line interface for building and automating workflows.

The company’s framing emphasizes reduced oversight for users. In its description, the goal is to manage crypto activities “without the constant manual oversight,” including tasks like distributing funds to reward programs and scheduling recurring purchases.

Payments for agents via x402

Beyond trading, Coinbase says AI agents can also make payments using its AI payments protocol x402. The practical implication is that agents could pay for third-party services—such as data providers—needed to execute trading logic, without direct human involvement at every step.

This matters because many AI-agent use cases depend on pulling information from external systems in real time or near real time. If an agent cannot pay for those services, the workflow often breaks into manual steps. Coinbase’s approach suggests it is trying to reduce that friction by providing a payment channel built for automation.

Coinbase previously highlighted x402 in an AI-payments context, and the new announcement ties that capability directly to agent behavior—linking account connectivity, strategy execution, and agent-to-service payments within a single ecosystem.

Coinbase Advisor and the boundary between guidance and execution

Alongside Coinbase for Agents, Coinbase introduced “Coinbase Advisor,” an AI agent integrated into its app. Coinbase states that Coinbase Advisor is a US Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered financial adviser and can offer guidance on trades.

The distinction between guidance and execution is likely to be important for users trying to understand risk and responsibility in automated systems. Coinbase’s broader agent tool is described as enabling AI models to connect to an exchange account and carry out prompts that can include trades. Coinbase Advisor, by contrast, is framed as advisory support inside the app.

Coinbase also offered an illustrative example of how agents could automate a routine: it described an ETH dollar-cost averaging scenario where an agent would pull 30 days of hourly price data, identify historically low times of day, then schedule a recurring $20 market buy at those times for a defined period.

Why the AI-agent pitch is gaining traction—and why it’s controversial

Coinbase’s launch lands during a period when many crypto infrastructure firms are betting that AI agents will become active participants across services, not just consumers. In the same general direction, Circle recently introduced tools intended to help AI agents use wallets, discover services, and make programmable payments with its token, with CEO Jeremy Allaire predicting that “billions of AI agents” will use stablecoins within five years. Earlier, Crossmint launched a service allowing AI agents to make payments using eligible Visa credit and debit cards.

There are also industry claims about real-world transaction volume involving autonomous agents. A report from crypto investment firm Keyrock in May said AI agents quickly created an “developed ecosystem,” citing $73 million settled across 176 million transactions between May 2025 and April 2026.

At the same time, a study published last month introduces a counterpoint that should temper expectations about fully autonomous performance. According to the research, conducted by teams including Pantera Capital, Stanford University, Ava Labs, and the Initiative for Cryptocurrencies and Contracts, investigators reviewed over 925,000 token holders. The paper reports that agent treasuries made gains of $30 million on paper, while token holders collectively lost $191.7 million.

The study also argues that many projects it examined did not provide clear evidence of autonomous trade execution, with a substantial share described as “basic API integrations.” In other words, the presence of an agent-like interface may not necessarily imply real autonomy in trading decisions or execution quality.

For investors and developers, that tension matters: if agent systems are not truly operating independently, or if incentives and outcomes are misaligned, the expected benefits—such as consistent execution or superior risk-adjusted returns—may not materialize for end users.

What to watch next

As Coinbase for Agents rolls out, users and builders should watch how Coinbase defines—and practically enforces—the line between AI planning, payment authorization, and actual trading execution, especially given recent research questioning the level of autonomy in some agent-driven token ecosystems. The next signals will likely be adoption details, integration documentation, and whether third-party evaluations confirm that these agents deliver value beyond the interfaces they provide.

Crypto trading platforms Bybit, Binance, Bitget Wallet and MEXC canceled their tokenized SpaceX IPO campaigns and offered refunds for users as SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq on Friday. 

SpaceX’s IPO, which was reported as more than four times oversubscribed, raised $75 billion as it became a publicly traded company. SpaceX shares opened for trading at $150 on Friday, up from its IPO price of $135. It closed the day at $161.11, valuing the company at over $2 trillion. 

However, major crypto platforms offering tokenized access to the IPO were unable to fulfill demand for SpaceX allocations, with several blaming Kraken-owned xStocks’ inability to deliver the underlying assets. 

Bybit, which was offering tokenized access to SpaceX through its new Bybit IPO Express, was one of the first to announce the cancellation. 

“Due to xStocks’ inability to deliver the underlying assets, no SpaceX allocations were received. As a result, subscribed users will not receive SpaceX allocations.”

Binance’s SpaceX tokenized IPO campaign, which attracted over $557 million in USDC deposits, said it was unable to proceed to the campaign due to “circumstances outside of our control.” Binance Wallet was also relying on xStocks. 

Source: Changpeng Zhao

Bitget Wallet and MEXC also said they would be refunding affected users after being unable to secure an allocation of xStocks’ tokenized SPCX. 

Related: Bitcoin surfs SpaceX IPO at $64K as trader warns key BTC price support may crumble

“It’s disappointing that this didn’t work out in the end. We are in the process of sending out the refunds,” Bitget Wallet chief operating officer Alvin Kan said on X. 

“Yes, we have hit a setback, and trust in the industry has taken a blow, but we’ll come out of this stronger,” he added. 

Magazine: Does ‘Paper Bitcoin’ mean there’s an unlimited supply of BTC?

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

OpenAI has expanded its banking footprint through a deal that will bring ChatGPT Enterprise to all 120,000 BBVA employees, up from the 11,000 staff members already using the platform.

According to OpenAI, the multi-year agreement with BBVA will extend ChatGPT Enterprise across the bank’s operations in 25 countries and support the development of new AI-powered tools for customer service, risk analysis, software development, and internal operations.

The deployment represents a tenfold increase from BBVA’s current rollout and ranks among the largest generative AI implementations in the financial services sector. OpenAI said the bank will also work directly with its product, research, and technology teams as it expands AI across customer-facing and internal functions.

“We were pioneers in the digital and mobile transformation, and we are now entering the AI era with even greater ambition. Our alliance with OpenAI accelerates the native integration of artificial intelligence across the bank to create a smarter, more proactive, and completely personalized banking experience, anticipating the needs of every client,” – Carlos Torres Vila, Chairman, BBVA.

The agreement arrives as OpenAI continues to deepen its presence across financial services. Just one day earlier, payments giant Visa announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI as part of its new agentic commerce initiative, designed to enable secure Visa payments inside AI-driven shopping experiences.

BBVA expands AI rollout after early results

Nearly two years after the first deployment began, OpenAI said BBVA had already rolled out thousands of custom GPTs across the organization. The bank initially introduced 3,300 ChatGPT accounts in May 2024 before expanding access to 11,000 employees.

OpenAI reported that workers using the tools saved close to three hours per week on routine tasks, while more than 80% of users engaged with the platform daily.

Building on those results, BBVA will now extend ChatGPT Enterprise to its entire workforce. The rollout includes access to OpenAI’s latest models, privacy and security controls, and tools that allow employees to create internal AI agents connected to BBVA systems.

Additional training programs will also be developed under the agreement to support adoption across different departments and business units.

“BBVA is a strong example of how a large financial institution can adopt AI with real ambition and speed,” said Sam Altman.

“With this expansion of our work together, BBVA will embed our AI into the core of their products and operations to enhance the overall banking experience for their customers.”

OpenAI pushes further into enterprise and banking services

Beyond workplace productivity, OpenAI said BBVA is using its models to build customer-facing services. The bank has already launched an AI assistant called Blue, which helps customers manage accounts, cards, and other banking tasks through natural-language interactions.

As part of the latest partnership, BBVA is also exploring ways for customers to interact directly with banking products and services through ChatGPT.

The announcement adds another large enterprise customer to OpenAI’s growing commercial business. OpenAI said more than one million business customers, including Deutsche Telekom, Virgin Atlantic, and Accenture, now use its products.

Growing enterprise adoption comes as OpenAI prepares for a possible public market debut. Earlier this week, reports said the company had confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering and could seek a valuation of up to $1 trillion.

Anthropic said it suspended access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models after receiving a US government export control directive citing national security concerns.

In a statement posted Friday, Anthropic said it received the directive at 5:21 pm ET, instructing it to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. 

Anthropic abruptly disabled the models for all users in order to ensure compliance. It said all other Anthropic models, such as Opus 4.8, are not affected.

“We are complying with the government’s legal directive and are removing access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all users,” the firm said.

The directive comes just days after Anthropic released Fable 5 and Mythos 5, two powerful AI models built on top of Mythos Preview, a general-purpose language model that the company previously said had found thousands of vulnerabilities in critical software.

Anthropic said the government did not provide specific details about the alleged threat, but said it believes authorities are concerned about a possible “jailbreak” method capable of bypassing Fable 5’s safeguards.

Related: AI researcher claims he’s already bypassed Anthropic’s Fable 5 guardrails

“To date, the government has only given us verbal evidence of a potential narrow, non-universal jailbreak, which essentially consists of asking the model to read a specific codebase and fix any software flaws,” said Anthropic. 

A non-universal jailbreak is a far lower threat than a “universal jailbreak,” a method to broadly bypass a model’s safeguards, it explained.

“We disagree that the finding of a narrow potential jailbreak should be cause for recalling a commercial model deployed to hundreds of millions of people. If this standard was applied across the industry, we believe it would essentially halt all new model deployments for all frontier model providers,” it added.

Anthropic said it believes the government order is a result of a misunderstanding and is working to restore access for users as soon as possible.

Magazine: Does ‘Paper Bitcoin’ mean there’s an unlimited supply of BTC?

XRP is holding a crucial short-term support zone as analyst EGRAG Crypto maps a possible breakout path toward $1.26. The token remains near $1.14 after rebounding from $1.09, while whale activity adds pressure to the recovery setup. With resistance at $1.1938 and deeper support near $1.05, XRP’s next move depends on whether buyers can defend the current range.

Key Insights

• EGRAG Crypto says XRP bulls must defend $1.1340 to $1.1408 to keep short-term control intact now.
• Ali Charts reported whales offloaded roughly 60 million XRP, adding pressure to the recovery setup.
• TradingView analysis shows XRP faces resistance near $2.40 to $2.50 after a strong daily breakout move.

Xrp Bulls Defend Key Short-Term Support

XRP traded near $1.1436 as analyst EGRAG Crypto said the token remained above an important short-term support range. The analyst identified the $1.1340 to $1.1408 area as the zone that buyers need to defend to keep control on the lower time frame.

EGRAG Crypto said XRP recently bounced from the $1.0900 support level, which acted as an important demand area on the chart. Buyers pushed the price back above the short-term moving average, keeping the recovery structure active while the token consolidated near the mid-range.

The analyst marked $1.1938 as the first major resistance for XRP. A clean move above that level could open the way toward $1.2600, which was listed as the next upside target if momentum expands.

On the downside, EGRAG Crypto identified $1.0900 as the main support level and $1.0500 as the deeper invalidation zone. A loss of the current support range could send XRP back toward $1.0900, while a break below $1.0500 would weaken the recovery setup.

Whale Balances Add Pressure To Recovery Setup

Market analyst Ali Charts reported that large XRP entities have reduced exposure over the past week. According to the analyst, active whales offloaded roughly 60 million XRP instead of absorbing circulating supply during the current recovery attempt.

The whale data showed a decline in large-holder balances from May 29 through June 1. This movement suggested that some major wallets were distributing tokens while XRP remained below important resistance levels.

Ali Charts’ data also showed a mild recovery in whale holdings after balances moved near 3.75 billion XRP. Holdings increased for two consecutive sessions, suggesting some limited accumulation may have returned after the earlier decline.

However, whale balances had not recovered to the 3.80 billion to 3.82 billion XRP range at the time of the update. Until that area is regained, the broader whale trend remains weaker than it was before the recent selling phase.

Xrp Price Daily Chart Shows Higher Recovery Zone

TradingView-based daily chart analysis showed XRP finding strong support around the $1.80 to $1.85 area, where sellers failed to push the price lower after several attempts. That range acted as an accumulation zone before the latest upside move developed on the chart.

The recent green candles showed a breakout above the $2.00 and $2.10 levels. Price then moved toward the $2.30 to $2.35 area, which marked a major short-term recovery zone after weeks of weakness.

Volume increased sharply during the breakout, which supported the bullish move and showed broader market participation. A breakout backed by rising volume is generally viewed as stronger than a low-volume move because it reflects wider buyer activity.

The next key resistance sits near $2.40 to $2.50 on the daily chart. If XRP closes above this zone, the next upside target could be around $2.60 to $2.70, while the first support now sits near $2.10 to $2.15 and a deeper correction could bring price back toward the $2.00 psychological level.

SHRMiner introduces a free mining service enabling BTC, XRP, and ETH holders to earn passive crypto income.

As cryptocurrency gains increasing global popularity, more and more investors are looking for ways to generate steady passive income without the need for expensive equipment or specialized skills.

SHRMiner’s new free mining service enables holders of BTC, XRP, and ETH to easily earn passive income without requiring costly hardware or technical expertise.

In the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrency, ease of use and high returns are paramount. For those seeking an accessible way to earn a steady income with minimal hassle, cloud mining stands out as a highly attractive option. This article delves into the concept of cloud mining and—using the leading brand SHRMiner as an example — explains how it can help generate daily earnings of $7,900 or even more.

The appeal of cloud mining

Cloud mining has long been favored by cryptocurrency enthusiasts for its ease of use and convenience. Unlike traditional mining, it eliminates the need for expensive hardware, specialized technical expertise, or constant monitoring. Cloud mining simplifies the process, enabling anyone — regardless of experience level — to participate in the cryptocurrency revolution. Instead of investing in costly mining equipment and managing complex systems, users can simply rent mining capacity from remote data centers and earn a share of the profits.

Recently, SHRMiner, a UK-based cloud mining platform, officially launched a new “free cloud mining service.” This service is designed for holders of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC, XRP, DOGE, LTC, and EHT, providing users with a new opportunity to participate in cryptocurrency mining without any entry barriers.

At the same time, SHRMiner has launched a new mobile app that enables users to manage their mining activities anytime, anywhere, effectively ushering in the “era of mobile mining.”

SHRMiner: The perfect blend of laziness and profit

SHRMiner takes the simplicity of cloud mining to the next level, making it an ideal choice for beginners. Its user-friendly interface ensures that even those new to cryptocurrency can get started with ease. For SHRMiner, simplicity is not a drawback but a pathway to success. 

As a pioneer in cloud mining, SHRMiner operates over 150 mining farms worldwide — equipped with more than 600,000 mining units powered entirely by renewable energy—and has earned the trust and support of over 5 million users thanks to its stable returns and robust security.

How can SHRMiner become a source of passive income?

Start earning mining rewards in just three simple steps:

1. Register an account

By visiting the official SHRMiner website,users can register for a free account in less than two minutes and receive a $15 sign-up bonus; this bonus allows them to quickly experience the platform’s services and earn a daily return of $0.60 from a complimentary trial contract.

2. Select a cloud mining plan

Choose a cloud mining plan that suits particular needs and budget. The platform offers flexible plans ranging from $100 to $200,000 to meet the investment goals of different users.

3. Start earning returns

After purchasing a contract, earnings are automatically settled within 24 hours without requiring additional management or action; users can withdraw their earnings to their cryptocurrency wallet addresses at any time or reinvest the profits to benefit from the compounding effect.

The primary advantage of this model is that it significantly lowers the barrier to entry. Users do not need to research specific mining hardware models or hashrate configurations, nor do they need to set up their own system environments; simply by registering an account, depositing assets, and selecting a mining plan, they can start earning returns.

SHRMiner Platform Advantages:

• Supports daily automatic settlement
• No additional electricity or maintenance costs required
• Utilizes advanced ASIC mining hardware, powered by renewable energy sources, including hydropower, wind power, and solar power
• Supports mining for multiple currencies: earn mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC, XRP, ETH, DOGE, USDC, USDT, SOL, LTC, and BCH.
• Equipped with SSL encryption and DDoS protection, a real-time earnings dashboard for easy monitoring of mining performance
• 100% remote access, fully accessible via the SHRMiner application or browser without hardware requirements, and 24/7 online technical support
• Affiliate Program: The Affiliate Program allows users to earn up to 4.5% commission by referring friends, with the opportunity to earn an additional bonus of up to 30,000.

Examples of common contracts:

After purchasing a contract, earnings will be automatically credited to a specified account within 24 hours. Upon contract expiration, the principal will be returned in full. Users may withdraw the principal or reinvest it to benefit from compound returns; please click here for more details regarding the mining contract.

Unimaginable money-making opportunities

What sets SHRMiner apart is its extraordinary daily passive income; users have the opportunity to earn $7,900 or even more each day, turning the dream of online wealth into reality. Imagine generating substantial income without the need for ongoing investment or complex setups — that is exactly what SHRMiner offers.

Safety and Sustainability

In the mining sector, trust and security are paramount; SHRMiner fully recognizes this and prioritizes user safety above all else. Committed to transparency and legitimacy, SHRMiner ensures investment is protected, allowing users to focus on profitability. All mining facilities utilize clean energy, making this a carbon-consciouscloud mining operation. Renewable energy protects the environment from pollution while providing a powerful energy source.

In short

For those who are looking for ways to generate passive income, cloud mining could be a choice worth exploring. When approached correctly, these opportunities allow investors to effortlessly build cryptocurrency wealth on “autopilot” with minimal time investment. At the very least, they are far less time-consuming than any form of active trading. Passive income is the ultimate goal for every investor and trader, and with SHRMiner, maximizing passive income potential is easier than ever.

To learn more about SHRMiner, visit the official website.

Kraken has outlined a broad set of product and partnership updates for June 2026, spanning retail trading tools, “earn” features denominated in crypto, and new infrastructure links for payments and stablecoins. The announcements arrive as exchanges continue to compete on usability, distribution, and regulated access to higher-risk trading products.

Bitcoin-denominated rewards move in-house

One of Kraken’s headline offerings is Bitcoin Vault, described as a way for long-term BTC holders to earn BTC-denominated rewards directly from their Kraken accounts. The announcement positions the product as designed to avoid external wallet usage and to require no DeFi knowledge, with a stated 1-day lockup period.

For market participants, “earn” products that settle in the same asset they advertise can be attractive because they reduce day-to-day operational friction. At the same time, investors typically need to evaluate how rewards are sourced and how staking or custody terms affect liquidity and risk. Kraken’s framing suggests a tighter integration with the exchange account experience, which may broaden participation among users who do not want to navigate separate protocols.

Kraken Prop expands access to funded trading

Kraken also introduced Kraken Prop, characterized in the update as a funded trading program. According to the details shared in the announcement, participants access wallets after an evaluation process, with capital of up to $200,000 available. The profit split is described as up to 90% of eligible profits, and the program includes 60-plus crypto trading pairs, including BTC and ETH.

The program’s structure is notable in how it mirrors a broader trend across crypto trading education and “pro” funding models. These programs are often marketed to traders who want exposure to larger size without directly funding the full risk capital. For the exchange, they can also increase trading activity density if funded participants become repeat users.

As always, prospective traders typically need to review evaluation rules, eligibility criteria, withdrawal mechanics, and any restrictions on trading strategy, since these factors determine whether the product functions as a path to consistent returns or as a short-term contest with performance filters.

Spot margin and trading availability for US users

On the US trading side, Kraken said that Spot Margin is now available on Kraken Pro for CFTC-regulated spot margin trading to US retail traders. Separately, Kraken referenced additional spot margin availability through six new pairs for US spot margin traders.

The shift matters because margin offerings can change how retail participants construct portfolios, manage exposure, and respond to volatility. While spot margin does not introduce derivatives in the same way perps do, it still increases leverage and liquidation risk. Market observers generally look for how exchanges operationalize risk controls, including margin requirements, liquidation processes, and product eligibility by jurisdiction.

Perpetual futures, CFTC framing, and regulatory segmentation

Kraken also said it is set to launch what it describes as its first CFTC-regulated perpetual futures for US traders. The announcement does not provide trading terms, dates beyond “set to launch,” or additional specification details in the email text provided, but it signals continued expansion of regulated derivatives access.

For exchanges, regulated perpetual offerings can be a balancing act. They require compliance scaffolding and clear risk disclosures, while still competing with offshore venues that often offer broader product flexibility. For traders, the availability of regulated perps can impact execution quality, reporting expectations, and how institutions or compliance-conscious users evaluate venue selection.

Payments and stablecoin infrastructure partnership

Beyond trading, Kraken highlighted a partnership with Tempo focused on global payments and stablecoin infrastructure. The update also stated that USDT0 deposits and withdrawals are now available on Tempo, and that Tempo supports those transfers.

Stablecoin settlement and payment rails are increasingly important for exchanges, particularly where user demand includes faster cross-border movement and more predictable operational workflows. Still, users generally need to distinguish between stablecoin availability, network routes, settlement timelines, and withdrawal finality, since those operational details can vary by infrastructure provider and jurisdiction.

Additional retail features: staking and “Auto Earn”

Kraken’s June update package also includes further staking and earn-style product additions. The email references HYPE staking and Auto Earn as a way to put idle HYPE to work, alongside AVAX staking and Auto Earn for AVAX holders.

These features reflect a pattern common across large exchanges: integrating staking or reward logic into the main account experience rather than forcing users to interact with external staking contracts. The practical value is typically convenience, but the key for users is understanding lockups, reward frequency, and any conditions that affect how assets can be moved or sold.

Tokenized IPO access and other product additions

Kraken also referenced access to the SpaceX IPO via xStocks. In addition, it listed other product and listing-related items, including new asset listings and additional features tied to deposits and withdrawals across supported networks.

Tokenized IPO access is an area where marketing claims can outpace details, so investors usually look for disclosures around underlying issuers, instrument structure, custody, redemption or transferability, and regulatory constraints. The email text provided notes availability, but it does not include instrument terms in a way that would allow full verification of those mechanics.

What these updates signal for the market

Taken together, Kraken’s June 2026 announcements point to three strategic priorities for the exchange and, by extension, the broader market.

• Account-based “earn” products. Bitcoin Vault and Auto Earn features aim to keep rewards within the exchange workflow, reducing friction for users who prefer not to interact with separate protocols.
• Growing regulated trading depth. Spot margin availability and planned CFTC-regulated perpetual futures suggest Kraken is continuing to broaden the range of regulated trading tools available to US retail participants.
• Infrastructure partnerships tied to stablecoin payments. The Tempo collaboration indicates continuing investment in settlement and cross-border payment functionality, which can influence how quickly and reliably users move assets.

For users, the immediate relevance is practical: new products can alter trading options, liquidity planning, and how returns are realized. For the industry, the bigger takeaway is that exchange competition is increasingly about integration quality, regulatory scope, and how well products match user expectations for convenience and speed.

Crypto’s market structure bill cleared committee with votes to spare and a calendar working against it.

Eleven months after the House passed it and one year after the GENIUS Act proved Congress could legislate on crypto at all, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act stands closer to law than any market structure bill in American history, and closer to a familiar death. On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill by a vote of 15 to 9, with all thirteen Republicans joined by two Democrats. The crypto industry celebrated for roughly a day before the second half of the sentence sank in: both Democratic votes came with explicit warnings that committee support did not guarantee floor support, the bill still has to merge with a separate committee’s text, and the Senate calendar between now and the August recess is a traffic jam of expiring deadlines that have nothing to do with crypto.

NEW: Crypto industry calls for passage of the Clarity Act after its bipartisan approval by the Senate Banking Committee. The bill would establish consumer protections for 67 million Americans who use crypto to pay bills send money to family and build financial independence https://t.co/NFsjGXXeK9 pic.twitter.com/N1oBR0uRIR

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) June 9, 2026

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The bill’s own advocates now describe the window in weeks. Negotiators have said the remaining disputes must be settled if the Senate is to have a chance of passing the bill in the next two months, a framing that puts the decisive period between mid-June and the recess. What follows is a map of that window: how the bill got here, what is actually in it, the procedural steps remaining, the disputes that could still kill it, the calendar it competes against, and the probability tree at the end.

How the bill reached this point

Legislative history matters here because it explains both the momentum and the fragility. The House passed its CLARITY Act in July 2025 with a bipartisan margin, handing the Senate a finished framework for dividing crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. The Senate, as the Senate does, declined to take the House text and began building its own. Senators Tim Scott and Cynthia Lummis released a discussion draft in July 2025; the Banking Committee followed with a 182-page draft of its Responsible Financial Innovation Act in September; twelve Senate Democrats published their own framework days later, staking out the minority’s price.

January 2026 brought a 278-page draft with the first version of the stablecoin yield prohibition, and the Agriculture Committee, which owns the CFTC’s jurisdiction, published its companion Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act the same month. Decisive text landed on May 12: a 309-page bill containing the compromises that made the markup vote possible. Two days later the committee advanced it. The names have blurred along the way, CLARITY in the House, RFIA in Senate drafts, but correspondents covering the process have been explicit that these are the same legislation wearing different titles, and this piece uses CLARITY throughout.

One more piece of history shapes everything: the GENIUS Act precedent. Stablecoin legislation passed in July 2025 by assembling roughly the same coalition this bill needs, proving the votes exist for crypto law when the irritants are sanded off. Every actor in the current fight is consciously replaying that playbook, and every dispute below is, at bottom, an argument about which irritants must be sanded and which are load-bearing.

One refinement to that history changed the bill’s internal politics and belongs on its own line. The September 2025 Democratic framework was not an obstruction document; it was a price list, and the majority has spent eight months paying it line by line, from illicit finance to insolvency protections. Reading the bill’s drafts in sequence is watching a negotiation conducted through legislative text, with each new version longer than the last because each one bought votes with pages. The 309-page May text is 127 pages heavier than September’s draft, and nearly all the added weight is purchased consensus.

What is actually in the 309 pages

The May 12 text repays a closer read, because several of its provisions have received almost no coverage relative to their consequences. At the bill’s core remains the jurisdictional settlement: a framework deciding which digital assets fall to the CFTC as commodities, which remain securities under the SEC, and how assets move between categories as their networks decentralize. Around that core, the May text added four things. A compromise on stablecoin yield prohibits platforms from paying interest on idle stablecoin balances while permitting activity-linked rewards, language the banking lobby immediately attacked as inadequate.

The American Bankers Association argued the text fails to stop interest-like rewards in practice. A framework for DeFi trading protocols appears for the first time, sketching how decentralized front ends and protocols fit a regime built for intermediaries. An insolvency safe harbor for digital commodity transactions addresses the FTX-shaped hole in bankruptcy law, clarifying customer claims when a platform fails. A strengthened illicit finance section answers the issue Democrats have pressed hardest from the beginning.

NEW: Top crypto companies send joint letter urging Congress to include legal protections for developers in the Clarity Act. The signatories include a16z, Aave, 1inch, Block, BitGo, Aptos, Zcash, Solana, Galaxy, Ledger, Kraken, Uniswap, Coinbase, Hyperliquid and many others https://t.co/NFsjGXXeK9 pic.twitter.com/sxq8GKnwCg

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) June 10, 2026

What the text pointedly does not contain is the provision everyone is arguing about. The conflict-of-interest section restraining government officials from profiting on crypto sits outside the Banking Committee’s jurisdiction and must enter the bill later in the process. That absence is not an oversight; it is a deferred fight, and it is large enough to merit its own treatment. For the purposes of the map, it is the bill’s single most dangerous open item.

The GENIUS playbook, step by step

Because everyone in the building is consciously rerunning the stablecoin play, the play itself bears study, both for what transfers and for what does not. GENIUS succeeded on a specific sequence. The bill survived an early failed procedural vote that forced negotiators back to the table, paid the minority’s price in consumer protection and anti-evasion language through weeks of painful redrafting, picked up a bloc of Democratic votes large enough to clear cloture comfortably, and reached the President’s desk in July 2025 as the first major crypto statute in American history.

Three features of that run mattered most: the subject was narrow enough that the irritants could be enumerated and paid one by one, the industry coalition stayed unified behind a single text instead of fragmenting across preferences, and the ethics fight never fully attached. A stablecoin bill could be framed as plumbing rather than as a referendum on anyone’s portfolio. Map those features onto CLARITY and the transfer is two out of three. The irritant-payment machinery is working, as the May 12 compromises show, and the industry coalition has held.

What does not transfer is the third feature, and its absence is the whole story of the current stall. A market structure bill that decides the legal status of assets the President’s orbit holds cannot be framed as plumbing, which is why the ethics question attached to this bill and not the last one. The GENIUS playbook, faithfully executed, carries CLARITY to the doorstep of the same coalition and leaves it standing there. It is waiting on the one fight the playbook never had to win.

The vote math, read closely

Fifteen to nine sounds comfortable. The Senate floor arithmetic is anything but, and reading the committee vote correctly is the difference between optimism and analysis. Sixty votes are needed to clear a filibuster, which means roughly seven Democrats beyond unified Republican support. The two committee Democrats who voted yes attached the same caveat publicly: their support on the floor depends on further progress on outstanding issues.

Their votes are best read as an option, not a commitment, purchased by the majority with the May 12 compromises and exercisable only if the remaining disputes resolve. The September 2025 framework from twelve Senate Democrats remains the best guide to the minority’s full asking price: illicit finance enforcement with teeth, consumer protections, and the ethics provision. The illicit finance question has progressed furthest, with industry groups now running events aimed at law enforcement audiences to argue the bill strengthens rather than weakens their tools. That campaign’s existence tells you the votes it targets are not yet secured.

Two structural facts help the bill’s chances. Crypto market structure polls as bipartisan in a way most of this Congress’s agenda does not, and the GENIUS coalition exists as a proof of concept with most of the same members. Two structural facts hurt it. Election-year floor time is the scarcest commodity in Washington, and any single senator determined to extract a price can burn days the bill does not have.

What the agencies do while Congress decides

The window matters more because of what fills the vacuum if it closes, and the past year offers the preview. In the absence of statute, crypto’s legal status in America is being set by agency posture, and posture is reversible. The SEC of this administration has settled or dropped the enforcement docket of the last one, blessed waves of spot products, and governs by exemption and inaction. The CFTC claims digital commodities it has limited statutory tools to police, and the banking regulators have opened the charter gates, as the trust bank approvals of the past year show.

Markets have priced this regime as if it were permanent, and it is one election from review. That is the deep stake in the CLARITY window that day-to-day coverage misses: the bill does not create the current friendly environment, which already exists, but it is the only instrument that can make any part of it survive a change of administration. A vacuum filled by posture serves the industry right up until the posture changes. Everyone negotiating this summer knows which years the next posture would be set in.

The same logic explains why some sophisticated industry actors quietly prefer a slipped bill to a weakened one. Statute is forever, or close to it; a CLARITY Act passed with hollow definitions or a poisoned amendment would lock in flaws that posture could otherwise have papered over. The window is real, but it is a window for the right bill. The actors who remember how long securities law lasts are negotiating accordingly.

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The merge nobody is watching

Before any floor vote, a procedural step with real substance has to happen: the Banking Committee’s text must be unified with the Agriculture Committee’s CFTC provisions into a single package. The two committees split crypto the way Congress splits everything, by agency, with Banking owning the SEC and illicit finance pieces and Agriculture owning the digital commodity regime that the CFTC would run. Merges of this kind are where quiet drafting fights happen, because the seam between the two texts is exactly the seam between the two agencies. Every definitional choice at that seam moves real assets between regulators.

The Agriculture side has been the less contentious throughout, with its January draft attracting bipartisan participation, but the merge consumes time even when it goes well. The floor process cannot formally begin until the unified text exists. Anyone handicapping the window should treat the merge as a two-to-four week tax on the calendar before the procedural clock even starts. That tax matters because the bill is already running against a crowded pre-recess schedule.

The calendar war

Now the traffic jam. The Senate’s pre-recess window must also accommodate, at minimum, a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act renewal carrying a hard deadline this month, a fight that has gone badly enough to consume extra floor time and that crypto has managed to entangle itself in through an attempted ban on central bank digital currencies inserted into the surveillance negotiations. A major housing package is competing for the same weeks, with leadership attention attached. Appropriations season looms behind both, with last autumn’s 43-day government shutdown still fresh as the example of what happens to every secondary priority when funding fights consume the chamber.

Every one of these items outranks a regulatory framework bill in deadline pressure, because none of crypto’s problems explodes on a date certain, and the Senate triages by explosion. Procedural math compounds the squeeze. A bill of this size needs floor time measured in days even with cooperation: a motion to proceed, debate, an amendment process that leadership must either open, inviting hostile amendments on ethics and consumer issues, or close, angering the very Democrats whose votes are needed, and final passage. Then the House must act on whatever the Senate produces, either swallowing the Senate text whole or forcing a conference that pushes everything past the recess.

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The two-month window, examined closely, is more like four to five weeks of plausible floor access, shared with everything else. That is why the committee vote, while real progress, is only the beginning of the time problem. The bill must not merely have support; it must have support at exactly the moment floor time is available. In the Senate, those are different things.

The pressure campaign

Around the formal process, the influence machinery is running at full capacity, and its shape says a great deal about where the bill’s sponsors think the risk sits. The Blockchain Association staged an online town hall in early June aimed explicitly at law enforcement audiences, with Senator Lummis among those assuring police and prosecutors that the bill provides tough crypto powers. Industry groups do not spend June persuading constituencies they have already won, which locates the live anxiety precisely: the bad-actor and illicit finance provisions remain the gating issue for the Democratic votes that matter. On the other flank, the banking lobby keeps pressure on the yield compromise.

The banking lobby keeps pressure on the yield compromise, with the ABA urging senators to close what it calls a loophole letting exchanges pay interest-like rewards, an argument that doubles as a wedge to slow the bill if it cannot reshape it. Above the whole field hangs the White House, which has signaled it will accept broad ethics rules and reject anything reading as targeted at the President. That position simultaneously keeps the bill alive and keeps its hardest problem unsolved. The pressure campaign is therefore not noise around the bill; it is a map of which votes are still in play.

The House problem at the far end

Even a Senate triumph leaves one more chamber, and the endgame mechanics there belong on any complete map. The House passed its CLARITY in July 2025; the Senate product, after a year of drafting, differs from it in scope and detail. The yield compromise, DeFi framework, and insolvency provisions did not exist in the House text. When the Senate passes a different bill, the House faces the standard choice: swallow the Senate version whole and send it to the President, or insist on its own and force a conference that consumes months the calendar no longer contains.

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The political gravity strongly favors swallowing, since the House’s crypto majority wants a law more than it wants authorship, and leadership on both sides has signaled flexibility. But the choice belongs to House leadership at a moment, late summer or fall, when every floor day is contested. The bill’s opponents understand that a conference demand is the cheapest possible way to run out the clock while voting yes on everything. The practical upshot for the map is to add two to six weeks to any Senate passage scenario before a signing ceremony, with the short end requiring the House to accept the Senate text unamended.

The probability map

Handicapping legislation invites false precision, so the honest format is scenarios with reasoning instead of decimal points. A pass-before-recess outcome requires nearly everything to break right: the merge finishing this month, the illicit finance language closing the last Democratic holdouts, an ethics compromise that survives Gillibrand’s red line and the White House’s, and leadership choosing to spend a week of jammed floor time on a bill with no deadline. Each is individually plausible. Their conjunction inside five weeks is demanding, and the FISA fight has already shown this Senate’s tendency to let deadline items eat the calendar.

The slip scenario is the modal outcome: the bill misses the recess with momentum intact and returns in the fall, where it collides with appropriations and an intensifying election season. Fall passage of bipartisan economic legislation has precedent, and the GENIUS coalition proved durable across similar delays, but every month closer to the election raises the cost of any Democrat handing the administration a signing ceremony. The ethics fight gets harder in election light, not easier. Death requires no dramatic event, only the continuation of stalemate on the conflict-of-interest section until the clock runs out, sending the whole effort into the next Congress to restart from drafts.

A reasonable distribution across the three, given everything above: the slip is more likely than the other two combined, the pre-recess pass is a real but minority chance, and death by calendar is the tail that grows with every week the ethics section stays unwritten. Readers should weight the map by one rule of thumb that has governed this bill all year. Progress has come exactly as fast as the Democratic asks have been paid, and no faster. That remains the best shorthand for the next two months.

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What each scenario does to which assets

A map for traders should end with exposure, because the three scenarios do not price evenly across the asset class, and the differences are tradable. Bitcoin is the least exposed asset in every branch. Its commodity status is the one classification nobody disputes, its ETFs exist regardless, and its price has spent the year trading macro rather than legislation; CLARITY’s fate moves it least. The large non-Bitcoin majors sit at the other extreme, because the ancillary asset framework is, functionally, a law about them.

Tokens like XRP, SOL, and ADA gain a permanent statutory home in the passage scenarios and return to litigation-and-posture limbo in the death scenario, with everything that implies for exchange listings, institutional mandates, and the ETF pipeline behind the first wave. The middle of the market, DeFi tokens, gains something new in the May text and therefore has the most asymmetric exposure of all. The DeFi framework exists in no current law, so for that cohort the difference between passage and death is the difference between a defined regime and none. Stablecoins, oddly, are the calmest corner, since GENIUS already governs them, but the yield compromise inside CLARITY adjusts their competitive economics at the margin.

The bank lobby’s continued assault on that language is worth watching as a tell: the ABA fights hardest over provisions it expects to become law. Position accordingly, and date every position, because each checkpoint on this map has a window attached. The windows are the trade. For majors outside Bitcoin, the bill is not merely a policy story; it is a market-access story.

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What to watch, in order

All of it reduces to a short checklist with dates attached. Watch for the unified Banking-Agriculture text, the precondition for everything, expected if the process is alive in the coming weeks. Watch the FISA endgame, because its resolution releases or consumes the floor time the bill needs. Watch for movement on the conflict-of-interest language, the single highest-information signal in the whole process; any reported framework there upgrades every scenario at once.

Watch the named Democratic holdouts on illicit finance, whose public statements will move before their votes do. Watch the recess date itself, the bright line that converts the slip scenario from possibility to fact. For crypto markets, the practical guidance is to trade the checkpoints, not the chatter. The committee vote was real progress and was priced as such; the next genuine repricing events are the merged text, an ethics deal, and cloture, in that order.

Everything between them is noise with a press release attached, and this summer will produce more press releases per week of actual progress than any stretch of the bill’s life so far. Keep the map open and the checkpoints marked. The CLARITY Act has a two-month window, but the window is not one thing. It is a sequence of gates, and the bill must pass through every one before the calendar closes.

As of June 11, 2026. Legislative status changes weekly; verify the current state of play before relying on this map. This article is information, not investment advice.

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Bitcoin’s next major downside test may not have to sink as far as it did in earlier bear markets, according to a new analysis from Galaxy Digital. The firm argues that the asset’s realized-cost “floor” is currently higher than in previous cycles, implying that a cycle low could form at elevated price levels rather than through the deeper washouts seen historically.

In Galaxy’s base-case framing, the potential bottom sits between $40,000 and $46,000, with a tighter reference point tied to Bitcoin’s realized price at roughly $53,600. Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn also highlights that the current drawdown is still relatively young compared with prior cycle bottoms, while several commonly used bottoming indicators have yet to fully appear.

Key takeaways

• Galaxy Digital says Bitcoin’s “muted” cycle top could keep the network’s cost basis higher than prior bear markets, lifting the implied downside floor.
• The analysis places a base-case bottom range at $40,000 to $46,000, compared with a “washout” scenario of $30,000 to $37,000 and a shallower case near $51,000 to $54,000.
• Thorn estimates the cycle low could arrive sooner than in some prior downturns, as the current selloff is about eight months old versus 12–13 months in earlier cycles.
• CryptoQuant places BTC inside a historical value zone tied to bear-market lows, but demand indicators show a notable contraction.

Why Galaxy believes the downside floor may be higher

Galaxy’s research centers on a concept Thorn describes as “realized price” and the behavior of Bitcoin’s cycle from top to bottom. Thorn analyzed every Bitcoin cycle top and bottom and argues that the four-year rhythm continues to match historical timing closely, even as the magnitude of peak-to-trough declines has narrowed over recent years.

Across cycles, Galaxy notes that the drawdowns have compressed: from roughly mid-80% declines in earlier periods down to 77% in 2022 and around 51% in 2026. The implication is that the market is, so far, experiencing a less severe compression than past bear episodes.

A calmer top, fewer extreme signals

A central part of Thorn’s case is the behavior of the October 2025 cycle top. Galaxy claims that the topping environment was comparatively subdued: only two out of eleven traditional topping indicators triggered, and the Pi Cycle Top indicator reportedly failed to signal for the first time in this cycle framework.

Galaxy also points to MVRV (market value versus realized value), which Thorn says peaked at 2.29—below prior cycles, which ranged from 2.93 to 5.91. Thorn argues that this “calm top” matters because it affects where long-term holders’ cost basis is anchored.

“The key insight: a calm top RAISES the floor. Because October’s top was so muted, the network’s cost basis sits at 43.7% of ATH, vs ~34%, 21%, and 17% in prior cycles.”

Bottom signals are not fully in place

Even if the floor is higher, Galaxy stresses that a bottom is not guaranteed simply because the top appeared muted. The report says several “bottoming signals” are still absent: only four of thirteen indicators have triggered so far, and most of the stronger signals have yet to appear. In other words, the analysis frames current conditions as supportive of a higher landing zone, but not as confirmation that a low is already locked in.

Cycle timing and scenario ranges for the next low

Beyond indicator counts, Galaxy also looks at when prior cycle bottoms formed relative to the market peak. According to the firm’s historical comparison, previous cycle lows typically emerged about 12 to 13 months after the peak. Thorn argues the present drawdown is roughly eight months old, leaving room—based on timing—for a bottom to form ahead of some earlier cycle patterns.

Realized price as an anchor

Thorn’s modeling uses Bitcoin’s current realized price, which Galaxy sets at $53,600. From there, Galaxy outlines three scenario ranges for where a bottom could form:

• Base-case: $40,000 to $46,000
• Washout scenario: $30,000 to $37,000
• Shallower decline case: $51,000 to $54,000

These ranges are designed to reflect different degrees of capitulation and the effect those sell-offs would have on the realized-cost distribution of holders across the network.

What could still move the “floor”

Galaxy’s most important caveat is that the cost-basis floor is reflexive—it can shift if market stress forces holders to transact at losses more broadly than expected. Thorn warns that real panic conditions could lower the implied floor by dragging down the network’s average cost as coins change hands below prior thresholds.

“The catch: the floor can move. cost basis is reflexive. in a real panic, coins change hands at a loss and drag the average down. A 10-30% cost basis decline pulls the implied floor from ~$40k back toward $28k.”

CryptoQuant: BTC near a bear-market value zone, but demand is weakening

Complementing Galaxy’s “realized price” approach, CryptoQuant’s on-chain work argues that Bitcoin is trading within a valuation zone historically associated with major bear-market lows. CryptoQuant’s framing, as reported by the firm’s research, notes that BTC recently traded around $59,000—about 9% above its realized price of $53,600.

CryptoQuant’s historical comparison suggests that prior cycle bottoms, including the November 2022 FTX-linked sell-off, tended to form at or slightly below the realized price. That pattern supports the idea that the eventual low could fall below $53,600 and overlap with Galaxy’s base projection between $46,000 and $40,000.

Demand contraction adds caution

Where CryptoQuant’s data introduces caution is in demand metrics. The firm reports a combined weekly decline of 652,000 BTC across speculative futures demand and apparent spot demand—described as the sharpest contraction since January 2022. It also says its one-year demand gauge has turned negative, indicating fewer BTC buyers than in the prior year.

This matters because the market can remain anchored near a value zone while still lacking the incremental bid needed to quickly reverse the downtrend. In practical terms, weaker demand can prolong the search for a bottom even if valuation levels look historically “cheap.”

What investors and traders should watch next

Galaxy’s analysis suggests a comparatively higher realized-cost floor and a path to a cycle low that may arrive before the deepest historical washouts—but both Galaxy and CryptoQuant emphasize that key signals are still incomplete and demand has cooled sharply. For the next leg of clarity, readers should focus on whether additional bottoming indicators trigger on the same timeframe that network valuation stabilizes, and whether BTC’s demand profile starts to recover as price tests the realized-cost bands.