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Bitcoin’s Latest Drop May Be Proof the 4-Year Cycle Still Holds

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Bitcoin's 4-Year Halving Cycle.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest price correction is reinforcing, rather than undermining, the long-standing 4-year halving cycle that has historically shaped the asset’s market behavior, according to a new report from Kaiko Research.

The debate carries significant implications for traders and investors navigating Bitcoin’s volatility in early 2026.

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Bitcoin Is Following Its 4-Year Cycle Amid Sharp Correction

Bitcoin fell from its cycle peak near $126,000 to the $60,000–$70,000 range in early February. This marked a drawdown of roughly 52%.

While the move rattled market sentiment, Kaiko argues the decline is fully consistent with previous post-halving bear markets and does not signal a structural break from historical patterns.

“Bitcoin’s decline from $126,000 to $60,000 confirms rather than contradicts the four-year halving cycle, which has consistently delivered 50-80% drawdowns following cycle peaks,” Kaiko’s data debrief read.

The report notes that the 2024 halving took place in April. Bitcoin topped out roughly 12–18 months later, aligning closely with prior cycles. In past instances, such peaks have typically been followed by extended bear markets lasting around a year before the next accumulation phase begins. 

Bitcoin's 4-Year Halving Cycle.
Bitcoin’s 4-Year Halving Cycle. Source: Kaiko

Kaiko says the current price action suggests Bitcoin has transitioned out of the euphoric post-halving phase and into that expected corrective period.

It is worth noting that many experts have previously challenged Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle. They argue that it no longer holds in today’s market. In October, Arthur Hayes said the 4-year Bitcoin cycle was over. He pointed instead to global liquidity as the dominant driver of price movements.

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Others have argued that Bitcoin now follows a 5-year cycle rather than a 4-year one. They cite the growing influence of global liquidity conditions, institutional participation, and broader macroeconomic policy shifts.

Kaiko acknowledged that structural changes, including spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) adoption, greater regulatory clarity, and a more mature DeFi ecosystem, have distinguished 2024-2025 from previous cycles. Nonetheless, it said these developments have not prevented the expected post-peak retracement.

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Instead, they have changed how volatility manifests. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $2.1 billion in outflows during the recent sell-off.

This amplified downside pressure and demonstrated that institutional access increases liquidity in both directions, not just on the way up. According to Kaiko,

“While DeFi infrastructure has shown relative resilience compared to 2022, TVL declines and slowing staking flows indicate no sector is immune to bear market dynamics. Regulatory clarity has proven insufficient to decouple crypto from broader macro risk factors, with Fed uncertainty and risk-asset weakness dominating market direction.” 

Kaiko also raised the key question now dominating market discussions: where is the bottom? The report explained that Bitcoin’s intraday rebound from $60,000 to $70,000 suggests initial support may be forming. 

However, historical precedent shows that bear markets typically take six to 12 months and involve multiple failed rallies before a sustainable bottom is established.

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Kaiko noted that stablecoin dominance stands at 10.3%, while funding rates have fallen close to zero and futures open interest has dropped by about 55%, signaling significant deleveraging across the market. Still, the firm cautioned that it remains unclear whether current conditions represent early, mid, or late-stage capitulation.

“The four-year cycle framework predicts we should be at the 30% mark. Bitcoin is doing exactly what it has done in every previous cycle, but it seems many market participants convinced themselves this time would be different,” Kaiko wrote.

As February 2026 progresses, market participants must weigh both sides of this argument. Bitcoin’s next moves will reveal whether history continues to repeat or a new market regime is taking shape.

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Bitcoin Everlight App Now Offering 21% APY Rewards

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In early 2026, Ethereum staking continues to expand despite the sustained turbulence in prices across the broader cryptocurrency market. Participation in protocol staking remains high even as the returns compress. This reinforces Ethereum’s role as one of the core infrastructure assets while also highlighting the tradeoffs faced by long-term operators.

Within this environment, some technically experienced participants are exploring whether their knowledge can be applied to systems in which compensation is generated in Bitcoin and linked to execution-layer activity rather than token inflation.

Ethereum Staking Is Crowded, Yield Is Compressing

More than 36.9 million ETH is currently being locked on the Beacon Chain, which is around 30% of the total circulating supply. Validator participation remains high even in the face of severe price volatility. This signals long-term commitment to protocol participation.

However, that participation has come at the cost of lower returns. The Composite Ethereum Staking Rate now sits near 3.11%. Solo validators using MEV-boost strategies can still achieve higher effective rewards, averaging up to 5.69%, while operators without MEV optimization typically earn closer to 4%. The net returns for retail participants are lower once you subtract the platform fees, with Coinbase offering between 2.32% and 2.46% APY,  Kraken up to 2.96%–2.98% APR, and liquid staking via stETH hovering near 3.4%.

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Institutional scale has become a defining advantage in this environment. Large holders such as Bitmine Immersion Technologies, which controls over 4.3 million ETH with roughly 2.9 million staked, are able to sustain meaningful revenue despite compressed yields. At the same time, continued validator queue growth and minimal exits reinforce that while commitment remains strong, reward dilution is tightening margins for smaller and less efficient operators.

How Everlight Operates Alongside Bitcoin

Bitcoin Everlight operates as a Bitcoin-adjacent execution network designed to extend transaction handling without altering Bitcoin’s base protocol, consensus rules, or monetary policy. Bitcoin remains the authoritative settlement layer, preserving its role as the source of finality and security, while Everlight is positioned strictly at the execution layer.

Within this structure, Everlight focuses on transaction coordination tasks that Bitcoin itself is not optimized for, including routing efficiency, availability management, and rapid confirmation. Transactions are processed through a distributed set of Everlight nodes that coordinate execution activity independently of Bitcoin’s block production, allowing confirmations to occur in seconds rather than minutes.

To maintain alignment with Bitcoin’s security model, Everlight supports optional anchoring mechanisms that periodically record execution data back to the Bitcoin blockchain. This approach links high-frequency execution activity to Bitcoin’s settlement finality without modifying Bitcoin itself, allowing each layer to operate within its intended design constraints.

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Converting Execution Experience Into Bitcoin Rewards

Everlight participation centers on operating execution-layer nodes that manage transaction throughput and network availability. These nodes do not validate Bitcoin blocks and do not function as Bitcoin full nodes. Their performance is continuously evaluated based on responsiveness, routing efficiency, and reliability.

Node operators commit BTCL to participate and receive Bitcoin generated from real network usage. BTC distribution scales with transaction handling volume, availability scoring, performance efficiency, and operational class across multiple node tiers. Higher tiers assume greater routing responsibility and receive proportionally larger shares of Bitcoin distributions.

Participation carries no mandatory lock period. Bitcoin accrues only while a node remains active and meets performance thresholds. Nodes that fall below required standards are deprioritized until metrics recover. Under current network parameters, estimated annualized Bitcoin rewards reach up to 21%, reflecting aggregate transaction demand and operator contribution rather than fixed emissions.

Mobile App Simplifies Control for Node Operators

The Everlight mobile app is available to node operators and provides direct visibility into participation. Operators can monitor node status, uptime consistency, routing activity, and Bitcoin earned from network usage directly from a smartphone.

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Live metrics are paired with smart alerts notifying operators of uptime disruptions, performance changes, and BTC distribution events. This app-based interface reduces operational overhead while keeping execution control with the operator.

Independent technical analysis examining Everlight’s execution model and node mechanics has been published by Crypto League.

Third-Party Security Reviews Support Credibility

Bitcoin Everlight has completed independent third-party security assessments focused on smart contract logic, execution-layer behavior, and deployment risk. The SpyWolf and SolidProof audits examine transaction handling, permission structures, and edge-case failure scenarios under realistic operating conditions.

Operational accountability is reinforced through independent team identity verification conducted via SpyWolf and Vital Block, confirming the individuals responsible for development and ongoing network operations.

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Token Supply and Presale Parameters

Bitcoin Everlight operates with a fixed total supply of 21,000,000,000 BTCL. Allocation is defined as 45% public presale, 20% node rewards and network incentives, 15% liquidity provisioning, 10% team allocation under vesting, and 10% reserved for ecosystem development and treasury use.

The presale follows a 20-stage structure. Phase 3 is currently active, with BTCL priced at $0.0012. Presale allocations unlock 20% at token generation, with the remaining 80% distributed linearly over six to nine months. Team allocations follow a 12-month cliff with 24 months of vesting thereafter. BTCL utility is limited to transaction routing fees, node participation thresholds, performance incentives, and anchoring operations.

Website: https://bitcoineverlight.com/

Security: https://bitcoineverlight.com/security

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How to Secure: https://bitcoineverlight.com/articles/how-to-buy-bitcoin-everlight-btcl

Disclaimer: The above article is sponsored content; it’s written by a third party. CryptoPotato doesn’t endorse or assume responsibility for the content, advertising, products, quality, accuracy, or other materials on this page. Nothing in it should be construed as financial advice. Readers are strongly advised to verify the information independently and carefully before engaging with any company or project mentioned and to do their own research. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a risk of capital loss, and readers are also advised to consult a professional before making any decisions that may or may not be based on the above-sponsored content.

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Ripple expands RLUSD stablecoin use in UAE via Zand Bank

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Ripple expands RLUSD stablecoin use in UAE via Zand Bank

Ripple has expanded the reach of its RLUSD stablecoin in the Middle East through a new strategic partnership with UAE-based digital bank Zand, a move that could have longer-term implications for the XRP ecosystem.

Summary

  • Ripple has expanded the reach of its RLUSD stablecoin in the Middle East through a strategic partnership with UAE-based digital bank Zand, targeting regulated on-chain finance use cases.
  • The collaboration will deploy Zand’s AED-backed stablecoin (AEDZ) alongside RLUSD to support blockchain-based payments, settlement, liquidity management, and tokenization.
  • While the deal focuses on stablecoins, Ripple’s growing institutional footprint is viewed as a supportive backdrop for XRP, which was trading at $1.41, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours.

Ripple and Zand target on-chain finance in the UAE

Under the partnership, Zand and Ripple will collaborate to advance the digital economy by deploying solutions powered by Zand’s AED-backed stablecoin (AEDZ) and Ripple’s U.S. dollar stablecoin (RLUSD).

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The initiative aims to support the migration of traditional financial services on-chain using stablecoins, blockchain infrastructure, and tokenization.

Zand said the partnership represents a “significant step forward” in expanding real-world use cases for digital assets, particularly as regulated financial institutions explore blockchain-based settlement, payments, and liquidity management.

By combining AEDZ and RLUSD, the two firms are positioning themselves to facilitate multi-currency on-chain transactions in a regulated environment.

XRP price amid Ripple’s expansion

While the announcement centers on stablecoins rather than XRP directly, Ripple’s expanding institutional footprint is often viewed as a supportive backdrop for XRP’s long-term utility narrative.

XRP has historically traded as a proxy for sentiment around Ripple’s business momentum, particularly in regions where RippleNet adoption is growing. The Ripple token (XRP) was exchanging hands at $1.41 at press time, up 1.3% in the last 24 hours.

In the near term, XRP price action remains driven by broader crypto market conditions and risk appetite. However, continued progress in stablecoin adoption and enterprise partnerships could reinforce investor confidence in Ripple’s ecosystem over time.

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As Ripple deepens its presence in the UAE through Zand, the move highlights how stablecoins, not just volatile cryptocurrencies, are becoming a core pillar of blockchain adoption in regulated financial markets.

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Compliance-First Prediction Markets for White-Label Neo Banks

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Launch Enterprise dApps Without Budget Overruns

Prediction markets moved from niche experimentation to institutional-grade financial infrastructure in a very short time. For serious investors, the question is no longer whether they are interesting, but how they can be built, governed, and monetized inside regulated financial rails. The acceleration we saw in 2025 proved two things:

1. The market can scale to multi-billion dollar notional flows while attracting retail and institutional liquidity.
2. The ecosystem matured technically, with interoperable oracles, hybrid settlement rails, and audited market logic that reduces systemic counterparty risk.

For an investor evaluating white-label neo-banking platforms, embedding a prediction-market module is not a gimmick. It is a strategic lever that can unlock new fee streams, create stickier customer lifecycles, and produce market signals that feed risk systems and trading desks. Let us scroll through the blog to uncover the architecture, the regulatory contours, the commercial levers, and how an end-to-end partner can deliver enterprise production.

Are Prediction Markets Really Winning in 2026 & Beyond?

“In 2025 alone, global prediction market trading volumes hit $44 billion across major platforms, while economics-focused contracts grew roughly 905% YoY to about $112 million in volume.”

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By the end of 2025, prediction markets had reached a scale that turned heads across capital markets. Aggregate platform volumes for the year were reported in the high tens of billions of dollars, and specialized economic contract categories posted triple- and quadruple-digit growth rates. demonstrating real demand for event-based hedging and information products.

The competitive landscape now features two complementary rails. Regulated derivatives exchanges provide a compliant on-ramp for retail and institutional brokerage integration. On-chain platforms provide composability, programmable settlement, and tokenized liquidity. Both rails are attracting strategic partnerships and buy-side interest, which drives network effects and market depth. At the same time, regulators are moving from avoidance to active rulemaking and engagement, which reduces legal tail risk for properly structured products.

This is a clear implication for all the serious and visionary investors interested in launching their own crypto-friendly banking solutions. Prediction markets are no longer experimental curiosities. They are a fast-growing market infrastructure with real revenue potential and predictable paths to regulatory clarity. The winners will be platforms that combine robust legal frameworks, audited market logic, institutional liquidity, and seamless integration into existing financial products.

Who Should Build a Crypto Neo Banking Platform With a Prediction Market In It?

Not every financial platform needs prediction markets, but for some, the opportunity is too strategic to ignore. Platforms aiming to move beyond conventional digital banking and introduce high-engagement, event-driven financial products are already exploring this direction. Enterprises evaluating white label crypto neo bank development are particularly well-positioned, as the infrastructure foundation is already in place, allowing them to experiment, launch, and scale advanced market features far more efficiently.

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Investor Type Why should they build? Expected benefits
Institutional asset managers and hedge funds Access alternative data signals and hedging instruments Real-time macro signals, bespoke hedging, new alpha sources
Challenger neo-banks and fintechs Differentiate the product suite and boost retention Higher DAU, cross-sell of savings and credit, premium subscriptions
Traditional retail brokers and wealth platforms Provide event hedging products to clients New fee lines, increased platform trading volume, client stickiness
Payment platforms and digital wallets Embed engagement and micro-bets tied to promotions Improved LTV, conversion from marketing, monetized data streams
Sportsbooks and media companies Expand event offerings and monetize audience engagement White-label markets, sponsored liquidity pools, integrable odds feeds
Venture funds and platform investors Strategic asset with platform-level defensibility Tokenomics-enabled governance, network effects, data monetization
Banks exploring innovation Pilot regulated event contracts as a low-risk product Controlled rollouts, offline audit trails, compliance-first revenue

Each ICP will value different delivery attributes. Institutional buyers prioritize auditability, custody, and settlement certainty. Consumer platforms prioritize UX, onboarding friction and fraud protection. A good integration plan into a customized BaaS platform maps these priorities to architecture, compliance, and go-to-market.

Benefits of Integrating Prediction Markets Into Existing BaaS Solutions?

  • New diversified revenue: trading fees, market creation fees, subscription products, and data licensing.
  • Improved user engagement: gamified markets increase DAU, cross-sell rates, and deposit retention.
  • Alternative hedging instruments: event-based positions for macro and idiosyncratic risk management.
  • Premium product differentiation: unique features for high-value clients and institutional desks.
  • Proprietary data assets: structured event outcomes become monetizable signals for research and asset management.
  • Elastic scaling of product offerings: markets can be white-labeled for partners and sponsors.
  • Regulatory arbitrage mitigation: hybrid designs enable compliant offerings that would otherwise be restricted to on-chain-only models.
  • Operational synergy: integrates with existing KYC, custody, and customer support infrastructure to keep the marginal cost of new products low.

Essential Components of NeoBank App Platform Development with Prediction-Market

  1. Market engine: deterministic, auditable smart contracts or exchange matching logic with replayable trade history.
  2. Oracle fabric: redundant oracle sets with economic incentives, cryptographic proofs and dispute resolution.
  3. Liquidity stack: AMM templates, maker incentives, and external market maker APIs for deep order books.
  4. Settlement rail: choice of on-chain (USDC / stablecoin), off-chain clearing, or hybrid settlement to meet FX, custody, and reconciliation needs.
  5. Custody & KYC integration: segregated hot and cold custody, administrator keys, and seamless KYC/AML flows tied into the bank rails.
  6. Governance and dispute layer: tokenized or multisig dispute escalation, transparent resolution windows, and legal arbitration interfaces.
  7. Risk controls: real-time exposure limits, automated position throttles, and scenario stress testing.
  8. Front-end and trading UX: low latency order entry, tick-level market depth, market creation UI, and clear risk disclosures.
  9. Audit and verification: formal verification of contracts, third-party security audits, and reproducible testnets.
  10. Data and analytics: streaming market telemetry, user cohort metrics, pricing oracles, and API endpoints for downstream quant and trading desks.

These components should be architected as modular services, allowing regulated institutions to activate or restrict specific functionalities in alignment with their compliance frameworks. Delivering such a system with precision typically requires collaboration with a seasoned and certified crypto banking development company that brings extensive domain experience, a multidisciplinary engineering team, and in-house legal expertise to navigate regulatory and licensing complexities. In addition, the partner you engage should possess strong API integration capabilities and established working relationships with reputable third-party infrastructure providers, ensuring seamless interoperability and dependable operational continuity.

Evaluate Your Platform Architecture With Our Experts

How Does Antier Help Build Enterprise-Grade Prediction Market Integrated White-Label Neo Bank Apps?

Antier delivers a full A-to-Z white label neo bank app solution built for institutional buyers. The following is a pragmatic flow that maps to investor expectations and operational controls.

1. Discovery and requirements engineering

  • Regulatory scoping for jurisdictions of operation.
  • Product definition with investor KPIs such as take rates, expected volumes and settlement currencies.
  • Risk appetite and allowed event categories.

2. Architecture and design

  • Define settlement topology: L1, L2 or hybrid.
  • Design oracle strategy: primary and fallback feeds, economic incentives and slashing rules.
  • Select a liquidity approach: built-in AMM, partner market makers, and provisioned maker funds.

3. Smart contract and exchange development

  • Build auditable market logic, a matching engine, or AMM contracts.
  • Code formal verification where required.
  • Implement staking, fee routing, and governance modules.

4. Compliance, legal, and controls

  • Integrate KYC/AML providers and transaction monitoring.
  • Draft product legal wrappers, customer terms and disclosure templates.
  • Engage counsel for derivatives and gambling law as applicable.

5. Security and audit

  • Comprehensive security audits from multiple independent firms.
  • Penetration testing, bug bounty setup, and continuous monitoring.
  • Operational runbooks and incident response plans.

6. Custody and settlement integration

  • Integrate institutional custody providers for fiat and crypto.
  • Implement ledger reconciliation, proofs of reserves, and audit trails.

7. UX, SDKs and APIs

  • White-label web and mobile front ends designed for low-friction onboarding.
  • Provide SDKs for market creation, order execution, data streams and settlement APIs.

8. Pilot and liquidity seeding

  • Execute controlled pilots with predefined resolution windows.
  • Provide initial liquidity incentives and market maker agreements.

9. Ops, reporting and monetization

  • Build compliance reporting pipelines, audit logs, and tax reporting.
  • Implement fee routing, subscription management and data productization.

10. Post-launch governance and scaling

  • Ongoing legal support for emerging rules.
  • Scalable infra upgrades for peak market days and institutional integrations like broker partners.

Being the leading blockchain and AI development company, Antier’s delivery emphasizes the separation of concerns. The bank retains control over custody and regulatory reporting. Antier provides the market logic, oracles, integration and production runbooks so that a neo-bank can operate prediction markets with institutional safeguards.

How Prediction Markets Create a Competitive Advantage for White-Label Neo Banking Platforms?

Prediction markets act as a true differentiation layer for white-label neo banks when they move the platform from a set of commoditized utilities into an interactive financial ecosystem. Rather than another feature checkbox, a well-designed prediction module changes how users interact with money, risk, and information inside the app. For investors, this matters because differentiation must translate into measurable business outcomes: higher retention, new revenue line,s and proprietary assets that are hard to copy.

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How does it work in practice?

a) New financial primitives inside the product stack. Markets let customers take positions, hedge exposures or acquire probabilistic insights directly from the bank’s interface. These are not marketing gimmicks. They are real instruments that increase transaction frequency and stickiness.

b) quidity footprints and behavioral cohort patterns. Over time, those signals become a defensible data moat that can be monetized through research products, premium analytics,s or B2B feeds.

c) Network effects and liquidity defensibility. Active markets attract makers and takers. As liquidity deepens, spreads tighten, and user experience improves. This creates a virtuous cycle that raises the barrier to entry for competitors.

d) Faster monetization with modular integration. White-label neo bank solutions already have custody, KYC, and payment rails. Adding a prediction layer is largely incremental engineering that yields multiple monetization levers: fees, market creation commissions, and subscription analytics.

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Investor-focused metrics to watch
  • Incremental daily active users attributable to markets
  • Fee per active market and margin after liquidity incentives
  • Data revenue per month from market analytics and API clients
  • Churn delta for users who participate in markets versus control group

Takeaway 

For investors, prediction markets are not simply product innovation. When implemented with institutional rigor, they create measurable differentiation, recurring revenue, and a proprietary data asset that collectively strengthen the platform’s defensibility and valuation.

How Much Does a Prediction Market in White-Label BaaS Platforms Cost?

Cost is driven by architecture, jurisdiction, and desired speed to market. White label neo banking platform development with prediction market cost drivers includes legal and compliance, security audits, Oracle integration, liquidity seeding, smart contract engineering, and UI/UX. Choosing a true hybrid settlement model increases integration complexity and therefore cost but often lowers long-term operational risk and regulatory friction. From a strategic perspective, investors should focus less on headline integration cost and more on unit economics. That means modeling fee capture per market, expected liquidity depth, projected churn reduction, and data product revenue. Practical tactics to control spending include phased delivery, reusing audited open standards for AMMs and oracles, and using partner liquidity before committing proprietary capital.

Join Hands With Antier’s Accredited Fintech & Crypto Experts!

For institutional investors evaluating white-label neo-bank opportunities, prediction markets are a force multiplier. They provide distinct monetization avenues, generate proprietary data, and offer new hedging instruments. The market has matured to an inflection point where volumes and institutional participation justify production deployments, but regulatory work remains an essential part of the build plan.

Get in touch with Antier to launch your white label banking solution in just a few weeks and under professional guidance. Our approach combines deep technical engineering, formal verification, institutional custody integration, and specialist regulatory support so the client can scale markets responsibly. We help clients define the product, build robust market logic, integrate custody and compliance, seed liquidity, and operate at enterprise SLAs. If you are an investor or platform executive, integrating prediction markets is a strategic decision. With the right partner and a defensible compliance posture, it becomes a predictable, accretive growth engine.

Frequently Asked Questions

01. What are prediction markets and why are they gaining traction in 2026?

Prediction markets are platforms that allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events. They are gaining traction due to significant growth in trading volumes, reaching $44 billion in 2025, and the maturation of the ecosystem, which now features regulated exchanges and on-chain platforms that enhance liquidity and reduce risks.

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02. How can embedding a prediction-market module benefit neo-banking platforms?

Embedding a prediction-market module in neo-banking platforms can unlock new fee streams, enhance customer engagement, and provide valuable market signals that inform risk management and trading strategies.

03. What regulatory changes are impacting prediction markets?

Regulators are shifting from avoidance to active engagement, which is leading to clearer rulemaking and reducing legal risks for properly structured prediction market products, thereby fostering a more stable environment for investment.

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Jump Trading to take small stakes in prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi: Bloomberg

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Jump Trading to take small stakes in prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi: Bloomberg

Jump Trading plans to take a small stake in each of the prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

The trading powerhouse, which has a significant focus on cryptocurrency, will gain the stakes in exchange for providing liquidity on the two platforms.

Jump is set to take a fixed amount of equity in Kalshi, while its stake in Polymarket will grow over time depending on the trading capacity that the firm provides to the platform’s U.S. operation.

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two most prominent prediction-market platforms, having both acquired multibillion dollar valuations. They rely on market makers like Jump to put up the money to take the other side of customers’ trades. Market makers then profit from the difference in price movements.

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Jump expanded into prediction-market trading in recent months, recruiting 20 staffers in recent months for that business, according to Bloomberg.

The firms did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request for further comment.

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

Publicly listed companies that hold Solana as a treasury asset are sitting on more than $1.5 billion in unrealized losses, based on disclosed acquisition costs and current market prices tracked by CoinGecko.

The losses are concentrated among a small group of United States-listed companies that collectively control over 12 million Solana (SOL) tokens, about 2% of the total supply. While losses remain unrealized, equity markets have already repriced the companies, with most trading well below the market value of their tokens. 

CoinGecko data shows that Forward Industries, Sharps Technology, DeFi Development Corp and Upexi account for over $1.4 billion in disclosed unrealized losses. The total is likely understated, as Solana Company has not fully disclosed its acquisition costs.

The figures highlight a growing gap between paper losses and liquidity pressure. While none of the companies have been forced to sell their SOL, compressed net asset value (mNAV) multiples and falling share prices have constrained their ability to raise fresh capital.

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Top five Solana treasury companies by holdings. Source: CoinGecko

Accumulation stalls across Solana treasuries

Transaction data compiled by CoinGecko shows that the bulk of SOL accumulation occurred between July and October 2025, when several companies made large, concentrated purchases. 

Since then, none of the top five Solana treasury companies have disclosed meaningful new buys, and no onchain sales have been recorded. 

Forward Industries, the largest holder, accumulated over 6.9 million SOL at an average cost of about $230. With SOL trading around $84, Forward has unrealized losses of over $1 billion. 

Sharps Technology made a single $389 million purchase near the market peak. The company’s SOL is now worth about $169 million, down over 56% from its acquisition cost. 

DeFi Development Corp followed a more gradual accumulation strategy and reports smaller losses, but its shares still trade below the value of its SOL holdings.

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Solana Company, which built a 2.3 million SOL position over several tranches of purchases, has also paused accumulation since October, according to CoinGecko’s transaction history.

Related: Kyle Samani leaves Multicoin in ‘bittersweet moment’ to explore new tech

Equity markets signal a treasury winter

Equity price data from Google Finance shows that the top five Solana treasury companies have suffered sharp drawdowns in the last six months, significantly underperforming SOL itself. 

Forward Industries, DeFi Development Corp, Sharps Technology and Solana Company stock prices are down between 59% and 73% in the six-month charts. 

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Six-month price chart of Forward Industries. Source: Google Finance

CoinGecko data shows that Upexi has $130 million in unrealized losses on its SOL holdings. However, its shares have fallen more sharply than its peers. 

Upexi shares are down more than 80% over the past six months, according to Google Finance. Like other Solana treasury firms, Upexi has paused new accumulation since September.