Crypto World
Bitcoin’s Network Is Booming Even as Prices Remain Below Record Highs
Bitcoin network activity remains close to record highs, according to CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Network Activity Index, even though the cryptocurrency is still trading below its all-time high.
The index tracks metrics such as active addresses, transaction volumes, unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), and demand for block space to measure actual activity on the network.
Network Usage Surges
The Network Activity Index line is rising again and is moving back toward the levels seen during the 2024-2025 peak. It remains above its 365-day moving average, further indicating that network usage is stronger than its long-term average. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, this trend differs from previous market cycles, in which rising prices were usually the main driver attracting new users. Instead, current network growth appears to be taking place independently of BTC’s price performance.

The report said that new applications built on Bitcoin are helping drive this increase in activity. Ordinals have enabled users to permanently attach images, text, and non-fungible tokens to individual satoshis. This has created a native digital asset ecosystem on the Bitcoin blockchain. BRC-20 tokens, which use the Ordinals protocol, have also allowed the creation of meme coins and community tokens without relying on smart contracts.
Meanwhile, Runes, a token standard developed by Ordinals creator Casey Rodarmor, uses Bitcoin’s UTXO model to improve efficiency while reducing network overhead.
These developments have increased demand for block space and expanded Bitcoin’s function beyond simple payments. The crypto analytics firm added that Bitcoin is increasingly being used to store and verify data, while network adoption continues to grow even as broader market factors such as ETF flows, institutional demand, and macroeconomic conditions continue to influence price movements.
Pressure on BTC
Bitcoin was trading below $63,000 on Wednesday as investors remained cautious about risk assets. The decline was also driven by continued outflows of money from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are now on track for a seventh straight week of withdrawals.
So far this week, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nearly $182 million in net outflows, adding further pressure on the crypto asset’s price.
Geopolitical risks have also not disappeared, even as US-Iran talks in Switzerland moved into a negotiation phase. Bitunix analysts believe that investors may first need to see a turning point in broader liquidity conditions for crypto to attract meaningful new inflows. In a statement to CryptoPotato, the analysts explained
“In the near term, easing geopolitical tensions should help contain energy prices. But the next phase for risk assets will be determined less by whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open and more by whether markets become convinced that the Federal Reserve is preparing for another tightening cycle. That shift suggests that market volatility in the weeks ahead will increasingly be driven by inflation reports, labor market data, and Fed policy signals rather than developments on the geopolitical front.”
The post Bitcoin’s Network Is Booming Even as Prices Remain Below Record Highs appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
AI and Space Offer Better Bets Than Bitcoin, Billionaire Philippe Laffont Says
Coatue Management founder Philippe Laffont says artificial intelligence (AI) and space now offer clearer bets than Bitcoin (BTC). He told CNBC he is increasingly unsure what to make of the asset.
The billionaire investor argued that picking a future $10 trillion company is easier than predicting Bitcoin’s path. He sees that debate as more solvable than Bitcoin’s long-run role.
Why the Coatue Founder Is Cooling on Bitcoin
Laffont built Coatue in 1999 after training under Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. That pedigree gives his cooling stance added weight.
Speaking on CNBC, he said scarce IPOs once funneled speculative money into Bitcoin. That is changing. Fresh listings and a fast-growing stablecoin payments boom now offer rival outlets for risk.
The timing stings. Bitcoin trades near $60,000, about half its record high near $126,000, while AI and space valuations climb.
“I don’t know what to think about Bitcoin anymore,” Philippe Laffont said in the interview.
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The Case for a $10 Trillion Company
Laffont’s math is simple. He said global market value could grow from about $120 trillion to $200 trillion. A single company at a 5% share would then be worth $10 trillion.
The candidates are forming. Nvidia (NVDA), the chip maker driving the AI boom, sits near $5 trillion. SpaceX priced the biggest IPO on record this month at $1.77 trillion, and its shares jumped 19% on debut.
Privately held Anthropic is valued at $965 billion, and OpenAI at $852 billion. Each is closing in on the roughly $1.2 trillion value of all Bitcoin.
This is not idle talk. Coatue and his brother Thomas led an earlier Anthropic round worth $380 billion and joined its latest raise. The fund also backs OpenAI.
The comments land as Wall Street continues to debate where capital flows next. Some buyers still argue that Bitcoin remains too small for institutions.
Not everyone shares his caution. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, still recommends a small Bitcoin allocation for diversification.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold its value proposition while money chases AI and space is now the open question. For now, Laffont says he would rather bet elsewhere.
The post AI and Space Offer Better Bets Than Bitcoin, Billionaire Philippe Laffont Says appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
FTX Exec’s wife Scheduled for November Trial on Campaign Finance Charges
Michelle Bond, the wife of former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame, who is serving a 7.5-year prison sentence after reaching a plea agreement with prosecutors, is scheduled to stand trial in November following delays stemming from motions related to her husband’s plea deal.
On Wednesday, Judge George Daniels in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York ordered a trial start date of Nov. 9 for Bond, who faces four charges related to campaign finance law violations. The proceedings came a week after the judge denied Bond’s motion to dismiss the indictment, based on claims that prosecutors had promised Salame she would not be charged if she pleaded guilty.
Bond’s case is one of the final criminal proceedings related to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which filed for bankruptcy in 2022. The event led to criminal charges for Salame and other executives, including former CEO Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried and former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison.
In an August 2024 indictment, prosecutors alleged that Bond and Salame “illegally funded” the former’s 2022 campaign for the US House of Representatives. Salame allegedly used $400,000 of FTX funds as part of a “sham” payment in violation of campaign finance laws. Bond ran as a Republican in New York’s 1st congressional district but lost in the primary to Nicholas LaLota.

2022 campaign post on X (then Twitter) Source: Michelle Bond
Salame, charged in 2022 along with Bankman-Fried and others, was sentenced to 90 months in prison in 2024 after pleading guilty to conspiracy to make unlawful political contributions. He initially attempted to vacate his plea after claiming that prosecutors misled him over charging Bond, but ultimately reported to prison in October 2024 and left the matter to his wife’s case.
Bankman-Fried, angling for a presidential pardon, loses appeal
Salame, Bankman-Fried and Ellison were the only three people tied to FTX to receive prison time. Two other executives, Nishad Singh and Gary Wang, were given time served after testifying against SBF at trial. Ellison, meanwhile, was released early in January after serving less than her two-year sentence.
Related: US lawmakers warn against presidential pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried
Aside from Bond’s expected trial, Bankman-Fried was the only one connected to the crypto exchange to have his day in court. He was found guilty on seven felony charges and sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2024.
Although Bankman-Fried filed to appeal his conviction and sentence, he also recently applied for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals rejected SBF’s appeal earlier this month, leaving the US Supreme Court or a presidential pardon as his only likely path to freedom over the next 20 years.
Magazine: AI is banking the unbanked in Africa… faster than crypto
Crypto World
Binance Europe License Bid Fails in Greece as Exchange Vows to Stay in EU
TLDR:
- Binance’s Greek license bid collapsed, leaving the exchange one week to secure an alternative EU authorization.
- Regulators in Greece, Ireland, and Latvia all pushed back against Binance’s MiCA license application.
- Binance Head of Europe Gillian Lynch confirmed the firm is actively seeking a new EU licensing jurisdiction.
- Officials cited past money laundering penalties and Binance’s complex structure as key concerns during review.
Binance Europe operations remain intact for now, but the world’s largest crypto exchange faces a critical deadline after its bid to secure a regulatory license in Greece collapsed. Gillian Lynch, Binance’s Head of Europe and the UK, confirmed the company is not withdrawing from the region.
She said the exchange is actively exploring alternative authorization pathways. The development puts Binance in a tense position with European regulators as its current operating permission nears expiry.
Binance Faces Regulatory Resistance Across Multiple EU Countries
Binance approached regulators in Greece, Ireland, and Latvia in search of a MiCA-compliant license. According to sources familiar with the process, all three countries pushed back against the application.
Officials raised concerns about the exchange’s prior money laundering penalties and its complex international structure. Regulators also pointed to what they described as a risk-taking internal culture.
Lynch stated that Binance had contacted four or five regulators in total but submitted only one formal application, to Greece.
She told Reuters, “Binance is not leaving Europe,” and added, “We may just have a different pathway to being authorised.”
The company was previously under the impression that Greece would approve the license. However, the bid collapsed without a clear explanation from the Greek regulator.
The exchange has roughly one week to obtain a new license before its current EU operating permission expires. If no authorization is granted in time, Binance would be required to wind down its European operations.
That outcome would affect millions of users across the bloc. Lynch made clear the company intends to find another route to compliance before the deadline.
Binance is pushing back against the narrative that it is a non-compliant operator. Lynch noted the exchange employs approximately 1,500 compliance staff and has invested heavily in internal controls.
She said Binance has no outstanding issues related to the application. The company maintains it has fully addressed the concerns tied to its past regulatory penalties.
Binance Europe Strategy Shifts Toward Alternative Authorization Path
With Greece off the table, Binance is reassessing which EU member state could serve as its licensing jurisdiction. Lynch said, “If it is not Greece, I’m looking at other alternatives,” signaling the search is already underway.
No specific country has been named as the next target. The timeline, however, remains extremely tight given the approaching deadline.
The situation reflects the broader difficulty major crypto firms face in navigating MiCA’s compliance requirements. Binance’s international structure and past legal history have complicated its regulatory standing across Europe.
Other exchanges with cleaner compliance records have moved through the process with fewer obstacles. For Binance, the path forward requires rebuilding trust with skeptical national regulators.
A resolution before the deadline would require a regulator to move quickly on a new application. That is considered unlikely given the resistance Binance has encountered so far.
The exchange may face a temporary operational gap in Europe while it pursues authorization. Lynch has not ruled out any specific country as a potential licensing jurisdiction.
Binance’s continued presence in Europe matters to a large retail and institutional user base. The exchange offers crypto trading and related services to users across the EU.
Any forced wind-down, even temporary, would disrupt access for those customers. The company is clearly treating this as a solvable problem rather than a permanent setback.
Crypto World
Over $2.2 Trillion Wiped From Crypto Market in Eight Months as Bitcoin Hits Cycle Low
TLDR:
- Over $2.2 trillion has been wiped from the crypto market in eight months since the October 2025 peak.
- Bitcoin dropped 53% from its $126,200 all-time high, hitting a new cycle low of $59,000 in June 2026.
- Ethereum fell 67% from its October top, while altcoins excluding both assets lost $538 billion in value.
- The four-year crypto cycle model places Bitcoin’s expected market bottom around October 2026.
Over $2.2 trillion has been wiped from the cryptocurrency market in the last eight months, with the total market cap falling from $4.27 trillion in October 2025 to $2.02 trillion in June 2026.
Bitcoin dropped 53% from its all-time high of $126,200 to a new cycle low of $59,000. Ethereum fell even harder, losing 67% over the same period. The altcoin market, excluding both assets, shed $538 billion alone.
Eight Months of Cascading Losses Across the Crypto Market
The wipeout traces back to October 6, 2025, when crypto hit its all-time high, and Bitcoin neared $126,000. Four days later, Trump announced new China tariffs, sparking what markets now call the “10/10 crash.” Within hours, $19 billion was liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.
Pressure continued building into the new year. On January 30, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
That single move shifted rate expectations and added a new layer of macro uncertainty to an already fragile market.
On February 23, the administration raised the global tariff rate to 15%, pushing Bitcoin below $65,000. Five days later, on February 28, the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran. Risk appetite across financial markets deteriorated further as a result.
As Bull Theory noted on X, the total market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum is down 45%, wiping out $538 billion on its own. That figure illustrates how broad the damage has been, well beyond the two largest digital assets.
Corporate and Policy Shocks Deepen the Drawdown
In late May, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin, marking the firm’s first-ever sale of its holdings. Though the transaction was small relative to the company’s total treasury, it broke a narrative that had held for years.
Strategy had been widely viewed as an unconditional Bitcoin accumulator, and the sale rattled investor confidence across the market.
June brought another blow. Kevin Warsh presided over his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, and the dot plot turned hawkish.
Rate cuts were effectively taken off the table, reinforcing a macro environment that continues to weigh on risk assets, including crypto.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs reflected the shift in sentiment. Consecutive sessions of net outflows stretched across weeks, with redemptions running into the billions. Institutional demand, which had been a pillar of the 2024 to 2025 rally, was now visibly reversing.
According to the four-year crypto cycle model, Bitcoin is expected to bottom around October 2026. As of June 24, the total market cap sits near yearly lows, still down more than 50% from the October 2025 peak, with $2.2 trillion yet to return.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Slips Under $60,000 as Tech Rout, Hawkish Fed Hit Crypto

Bitcoin slid below $60,000 and Ether fell harder still on Wednesday, as a selloff in AI and semiconductor stocks and rising bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike pushed investors out of risk assets across the board. Bitcoin dropped about 4% over the prior 24 hours, slipping under the $60,000 level… Read the full story at The Defiant
Crypto World
XRP Is Down 50%, and a $785 Million Stablecoin May Be Part of the Problem
XRP (XRP) price has fallen 50% over the past year, even as activity on its network climbs toward record highs. The flood of money behind that activity may be part of the reason the price keeps struggling to recover.
The driver is RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin, a token built to hold a steady value near one US dollar. It is pulling fresh money onto the network, deepening the pools where XRP trades, while doing little to lift demand for the token itself. That shift has become a recurring thread in recent Ripple news.
XRP Price and Network Activity Have Split Apart
To understand why XRP is dropping even as its network grows, let us view one split in the data. For most of the past two years, on-chain activity moved loosely with the price. Usage climbed during rallies and faded during selloffs, and a correlation check over that period confirms the link.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Activity on the network’s decentralized exchange (DEX), a marketplace that settles trades directly on-chain without a central middleman, scores about +0.6 against price.
One metric breaks the pattern. Liquidity sitting in automated market maker (AMM) pools shows almost no positive link to price, and recently it has moved in the opposite direction.
An AMM lets people trade against a shared pool of deposited funds rather than against another trader, so the size of those pools reflects committed capital more than daily speculation. That single divergence is where the story begins.
Pool Liquidity Climbs as the Price Falls
Through 2026, the price has trended steadily lower, falling about 22% in the most recent two-month stretch, and the current XRP price now sits near its weakest level in a year, a decline that has dominated recent XRP news. The pools have done the opposite. Total value locked (TVL), the combined worth of all funds deposited across the AMM pools, more than tripled over the same window. Money kept arriving even as the token lost value.
Native DEX volume points the same way. Daily trading on the network’s on-chain exchange in 2026 has run at roughly three times its 2024 average, a steady climb that ignored the falling price. The build-up is not random, and it traces back to one asset arriving on the network in size.
RLUSD Is Quietly Filling the Pools
RLUSD now anchors the second-largest AMM pool on the network, with only one pool holding more XRP. Its broader footprint is large.
Supply on the network sits near $785 million across about 45,500 holders, after jumping nearly 30% in a single month.
The way that supply arrived matters. It climbed nearly 30% in a month. Yet the number of holders barely moved, rising less than 1% over the same stretch. Fresh dollars went to existing or a handful of wallets rather than a broad new base.
The growth appears to explain the liquidity surge, because a deep and regulated dollar pair gives traders a stable way to move in and out of XRP. The same data carries a warning, though.
Roughly 82% of RLUSD sits in just the top 10 wallets, so the holder base remains thin and concentrated. It also raises a harder question for the price.
Why the Stablecoin Boom May Weigh on XRP
Here the two halves of the story meet. The liquidity boom has not pulled in a wave of new buyers, and active traders and AMM users still rise and fall with the price. That suggests the growth reflects liquidity and settlement rather than fresh speculative demand for the token.
That points to a real risk for the token. If banks and firms settle value directly in RLUSD, they may never need to hold or buy XRP to move money across the network. A stablecoin can flood a network with dollars while quietly competing with its native asset, and the data so far fits that reading. The pools are filling, but XRP demand is not following. Derivatives traders, however, are positioned for the opposite outcome, betting that the price will rebound.
Derivatives Traders Lean Long Into Weakness
That bet shows up in the futures market. XRP open interest, the total value of futures contracts still active, sits near $3.45 billion across 125 perpetual venues. That is heavy exposure for a market trending down, and most of it leans long, meaning traders are wagering on higher prices. The funding rate, the recurring fee that longs and shorts pay each other to hold positions, stays positive on most venues. A positive rate means longs are paying shorts, a sign that bullish bets crowd the market.
A few venues show the reverse, with shorts paying instead, so the conviction is strong but not unanimous. This is the tension beneath the XRP price. On-chain, stablecoin money keeps flooding the network without lifting demand for the token. But in the futures market traders keep betting on a rebound, which could be riskier courtesy of a long flush possibility.
For now, any XRP price prediction depends on whether that liquidity finally turns into real demand for XRP. That could happen mechanically. RLUSD’s largest pool is paired against XRP, and the network often routes payments through XRP as a bridge.Therefore, heavier stablecoin use would pull more XRP into pools and transfers.
The same question hangs over any wider Ripple forecast built on network growth alone, and that single outcome separates a genuine recovery from another slow leg lower.
The post XRP Is Down 50%, and a $785 Million Stablecoin May Be Part of the Problem appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Pump.fun Parent Baton Corporation Recruiting CLO at Up to $5M Base Salary

Baton Corporation, the UK-headquartered development company behind Pump.fun, is recruiting a Chief Legal Officer at a base salary of $1M to $5M, co-founder Alon Cohen posted Wednesday on X. A $1M base floor for a CLO is well above the median for senior in-house legal executives at most crypto… Read the full story at The Defiant
Crypto World
Upheaval at the foundation has some of crypto’s biggest names feeling bullish
Yakovenko’s comments stood out because they came from one of Ethereum’s most prominent competitors. While debates between Ethereum and Solana supporters have often been contentious, Yakovenko’s reaction reflected a view shared by many currently at the top of the industry: that leaner organizations can sometimes make better decisions than larger, more bureaucratic ones.
The emergence of EthLabs is particularly significant because it arrived the day before the foundation’s layoffs and budget cuts, underscoring what supporters see as a broader trend: Ethereum’s research and development ecosystem increasingly extending beyond the foundation itself.
“I feel that the job cuts at the EF were necessary for their budget, longevity, and CROPs alignment,” said Hudson Jameson, head of ecosystems at CertiK and a former employee at the Ethereum Foundation. “As sad as the layoffs are, it was an inevitability to keep the EF lean long term.”
Jameson described EthLabs’ launch as exciting, noting that its founding team includes respected veterans of Ethereum’s research and development community. “The founding team at EthLabs are long-time, well-respected members of the Eth R&D community,” he said. “I can’t wait to see what they will accomplish.”
For years, critics and supporters alike have debated whether Ethereum relies too heavily on the Ethereum Foundation. As the ecosystem has grown into a global network of developers, infrastructure providers, layer-2 networks, institutions and companies, some leaders have argued that the foundation should become less central rather than more influential.
Crypto World
Ethereum Price Prediction: Kiyosaki Still Eyeing ETH, Solana Founder Bullish on EF Staff Cuts
Ethereum price is not looking good, and its prediction is at rock bottom, but it’s also holding attention from two directions at once. The Ethereum Foundation just confirmed 54 layoffs and a 40% budget reduction, but Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko called it bullish. Meanwhile, Robert Kiyosaki is still publicly accumulating ETH, with bombastic targets.
The Foundation’s restructuring is deliberate. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin acknowledged concrete trade-offs: a smaller Devcon, the wind-down of Privacy and Scaling Explorations, and reduced scope beyond core Ethereum work. The organization now runs on a seven-cluster structure focused on protocol security, censorship resistance, and privacy.
Its treasury policy caps annual spending at 15% of holdings, with a 2.5-year cash buffer and a glide path to a 5% endowment baseline by 2030, funded increasingly by staking and DeFi yield rather than ETH sales. According to Yakovenko, a foundation that spends less and ships its priorities more tightly moves faster. But will price follow?
Discover: The Best Token Presales
Ethereum Price Prediction: Push Toward $4,500 After Foundation Reset?
ETH is trading at around $1,660 right now, and the key Fibonacci structure sits well above the current spot. The support clusters are at around the 23% retracement at $1,300, with the 62% level around $1,900 acting as meaningful resistance on any sustained rally. Until ETH reclaims that $1,800 buy-zone, the mid-term technical picture remains constructive only on a relative basis.
The bull case is straightforward: Foundation restructuring reads as a catalyst for faster protocol execution, Yakovenko’s public endorsement pulls cross-ecosystem attention, and Kiyosaki’s continued accumulation commentary, framing $4,000 ETH as “the next Bitcoin moment,” keeps retail sentiment tilted toward accumulation. Targets in that scenario run $2,000 near-term, with institutional consensus from firms like Citi and Fundstrat clustering in the $5,440–$15,000 range for 2026.
Don’t Miss Out on Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop on ByBit
However, invalidation arrives if ETH loses key support below $1,500 on volume, which would reopen the lower consolidation range and neutralize the Foundation narrative entirely. Ethereum’s price structure still hinges on whether protocol momentum translates into fee revenue and network demand, not on any single pundit’s call.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Bitcoin Hyper Positions Where Both ETH and Solana Are Pointing
The Ethereum Foundation restructuring and Yakovenko’s bullish take on it highlight a convergence traders should track: Bitcoin’s security model, Ethereum’s programmability ambitions, and Solana’s execution speed are no longer cleanly separate value propositions. Early-stage infrastructure projects are already trying to collapse that gap.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is one presale worth examining in that context. It is the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, meaning smart contract execution at sub-Solana latency, anchored to Bitcoin’s security.
The project has raised $32 million at a current price of just cents, $0.0136821, with staking available at a high APY for early participants. The core pitch: programmable Bitcoin, fast enough to compete with Solana on throughput, without abandoning BTC’s trust model.
A Decentralized Canonical Bridge handles BTC transfers natively (no wrapped-token workarounds). That’s a technically differentiated position.
Research HYPER’s Full presale details here.
The post Ethereum Price Prediction: Kiyosaki Still Eyeing ETH, Solana Founder Bullish on EF Staff Cuts appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Kalshi Challenges Illinois Rules Limiting Prediction Markets
Prediction markets firm Kalshi has filed a lawsuit against Illinois state officials, arguing that newly enacted legislation in the state “expressly bans sports event contracts” on its platform unless Kalshi complies with a licensing regime. The company says the law conflicts with federal oversight of prediction markets and could force it to make operational changes that would be costly and ultimately unrecoverable.
In a Tuesday filing in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Kalshi named Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and other officials connected to the state’s gaming board. The complaint asserts that the measure signed last week—Illinois Senate Bill 3019—improperly intrudes on authority Kalshi says belongs to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under federal law. Kalshi is seeking to block the statute from taking effect on July 1.
Key takeaways
- Kalshi alleges Illinois Senate Bill 3019 conflicts with federal CFTC authority over prediction markets, including event contracts.
- The company argues compliance would force it to stop offering sports event contracts in Illinois or face potentially unlawful enforcement.
- Kalshi claims the July 1 start date could cause “irreparable harm,” including non-recoverable technical and compliance costs.
- The case adds to an ongoing federal-versus-state jurisdiction dispute over prediction markets and whether they fall under commodities rules.
- Legal experts cited in earlier coverage say these fights may ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Illinois law brings prediction markets under sports betting rules
Illinois’ SB 3019 was signed as part of the state budget package for fiscal year 2027, according to earlier reporting by Cointelegraph. Among other provisions, the package included a 0.2% tax on crypto transactions, which drew significant criticism from parts of the industry.
The central issue for Kalshi is how SB 3019 changes the state’s definition of an “exchange wager.” The bill amends that definition to include “an agreement, contract, transaction, or swap” that is offered, traded, or executed on a prediction market tied to a sporting contest or event. Kalshi argues this effectively subjects prediction market companies to the same kind of regulatory framework applied to sports betting operators.
In its complaint, Kalshi contends that the state legislation violates federal requirements and infringes on the CFTC’s claimed role in regulating event contracts on prediction platforms. The company’s filing describes a scenario in which following the new Illinois rules could place Kalshi in conflict with what it characterizes as the CFTC’s “uniformity requirements.”
Kalshi warns of costly compliance hurdles and enforcement risk
Kalshi’s lawsuit frames the timing and practical implications as urgent. The company says it would be “irreparably harmed” when SB 3019 takes effect on July 1 if it is required to comply.
According to the complaint, Kalshi would face a difficult choice: either stop offering its sports event contracts in Illinois to meet the new state licensing and regulatory requirements, or attempt to continue but implement complex systems to restrict access to Illinois. Kalshi argues that building and operating such technology would be expensive, and it asserts that those costs would not be recoverable even if it ultimately prevails in the lawsuit.
The filing also highlights enforcement risk. Kalshi states it cannot simply ignore the state law because an Illinois enforcement action could expose the company to criminal penalties. “Irreparable harm” in this context is tied not just to immediate business restrictions, but also to compliance engineering, operational complexity, and the legal peril of being out of step with either federal or state frameworks.
A continuing jurisdiction fight: CFTC vs. state gaming regulators
This lawsuit is part of a broader dispute that has repeatedly surfaced across U.S. jurisdictions: whether prediction markets that trade on sports outcomes are primarily regulated as commodities under the Commodity Exchange Act—or instead should be governed through state-by-state sports betting rules.
Kalshi’s complaint centers on the CFTC’s position. The filing notes the regulator’s claim that it has exclusive authority over the relevant companies because Kalshi’s “event contracts” are “swaps” within the CFTC’s jurisdiction. The CFTC has pursued legal action against state authorities that, in its view, have moved beyond their role by restricting prediction market offerings.
Earlier coverage by Cointelegraph described CFTC lawsuits aimed at state governments following prediction market laws in places such as Kentucky. In those cases, the pattern has been consistent: state gaming officials assert that prediction market contracts tied to sports outcomes should be treated like sports betting products under state frameworks, while the CFTC argues that federal commodities rules control the market structure and offerings.
Illinois’ new approach, by tying prediction market activity tied to sports events to the definition of an “exchange wager,” is expected to intensify the same federal-state tension. Kalshi’s filing suggests that the state’s method of regulation—licensing and restrictions aligned with sports wagering—collides with federal claims of uniformity and CFTC jurisdiction.
What happens next, and why the outcome matters
Experts have previously suggested that the recurring jurisdictional battles could eventually end up before the U.S. Supreme Court, given the opposing legal theories coming from federal regulators and state gaming officials. Earlier Cointelegraph reporting on the legal trajectory of Kalshi’s dispute highlighted that possibility, particularly as courts grapple with how prediction markets should be classified.
For investors, traders, and the companies building prediction market infrastructure, the stakes are practical and immediate. If more states follow Illinois’ model, platforms could face a patchwork of licensing requirements and access restrictions—while the CFTC continues to argue for a federal, uniform regulatory approach. The legal outcome will likely influence whether the U.S. prediction market landscape can scale with consistent rules or remains fragmented by state-by-state compliance burdens.
Readers should watch SB 3019’s implementation status alongside court responses to Kalshi’s claims of “irreparable harm,” because early rulings on whether the statute can be enforced—or must be paused—could set an important precedent for other jurisdictions preparing to regulate sports-linked prediction markets.
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