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Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Could Follow US Midterms: Analyst

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Bitcoin’s market cycles could be more closely linked to the US political calendar than many investors think, according to a new analysis shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.

In a July 30 post on X, he showed that the flagship cryptocurrency has repeatedly entered bear markets before US midterm elections, only to recover after voters head to the polls.

Recurring Election Cycle Patterns

Wedson compared Bitcoin’s price history against US election cycles and found what he described as a recurring sequence. According to his chart, BTC enters a bear market about one year before every US midterm election before starting a longer bull market right after the vote. In some cycles, the market bottom formed just days before the election, while in others it came shortly afterward.

He also noted that presidential elections have produced a different effect, with Bitcoin rallying strongly every time a president won an election before approaching a major cycle top not long after the president was inaugurated.

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“Data reveals patterns that narratives often miss,” wrote the analyst.

According to Wedson, XRP offers an even more striking example, starting a steep rally on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reaching a local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated.

His observations are quite similar to those made in a Binance Research report from earlier in the year, which found that BTC has historically struggled during US midterm election years before posting gains once the political uncertainty faded.

Per the report, Bitcoin dropped by an average of about 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014, before returning an average gain of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.

Wedson had earlier contended that while many market participants believed Bitcoin has already established a bottom, “a price recovery alone does not confirm a structural shift.” He said there must be clear signs of capitulation and deleveraging, as well as short-term investors bringing in new capital before such a conclusion can be reached.

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Macro Conditions Could Shape Whether History Repeats

There’s still about three months left before Americans go to the polls, and BTC is currently hovering around the $64,000 level, which is nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000, with data from CoinGecko showing it dipped about 2.5% in seven days.

However, it’s still up nearly 8% across the last month, after weathering the latest Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.

The post Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Could Follow US Midterms: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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'Major Incident' Declared as England Wildfire Swells to Size of 210 Soccer Pitches

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'Major Incident' Declared as England Wildfire Swells to Size of 210 Soccer Pitches
Smoke rises from a wildfire at Dunwich Heath, Suffolk, where a major incident has been declared as firefighters battle a large heathland blaze on July 30, 2026. —Joe Giddens––Getty Images

The emergency services in Suffolk, England, have declared a “major incident” as they struggle to contain a wildfire that has swelled to around 370 acres, roughly the size of 210 soccer pitches. 

“Changing wind conditions continue to affect the direction and behavior of the fire, making it difficult to predict how it may spread,” Suffolk Fire and Rescue Service said in an update Thursday afternoon.

More than 120 firefighters have been on site tackling the blaze at Dunwich Heath, an area of coastal lowland in the east of England, since the fire broke out on Wednesday. 

The blaze has spread across heathland and fields, forcing dozens of people to be evacuated from their homes, with vast stretches of land left charred.

Chief fire officer Jon Lacey described the blaze as “one of the largest” he remembers in the history of Suffolk.

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“The fire is still developing. It is a challenging environment to be able to extinguish that fire,” Lacey said at a Thursday press conference. “We have surrounded it with resources, particularly on the fire front that is moving forward to make sure that we can protect the buildings, other forestry, and other items that need to be protected.”

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the local authorities will have “all the support, mutual aid, [and] other services that they need,” as they continue to work around-the-clock amid another U.K. heat wave.

Read More: What Is a Fire Cloud and How Are They Making Europe’s Wildfires More Dangerous?

The wildfire has caused power outages in the surrounding areas, placing additional challenges on local services.

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U.K. Power Networks said a power cut affecting 116 customers across three postcodes in the area is under investigation.

Meanwhile, officials have quelled concerns about nearby nuclear power stations.

An EDF Energy spokesperson told TIME “the fire at Dunwich Heath is not currently affecting operations at Sizewell B power station but we are continuing to monitor the situation—we are not on high alert.”

Suffolk Fire and Rescue Service also said neither Sizewell B or Sizewell C—a second nuclear power station under construction nearby—are considered to be at risk.

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“At the moment, Sizewell B and C are being monitored. We’re in consultation with them, but we’re not worried about fire spreading in that direction,” Lacey said.

Jenny Riddell-Carpenter, the Member of Parliament [MP] for Suffolk Coastal, praised the efforts of local officials and urged people to steer clear of the vicinity.

“I am so grateful, as I know so many others are, for the work of the fire brigade and the emergency services,” she said. “Please do avoid the area, and allow the fire and emergency services the space to respond.”

The wildfire has also raised concerns among local farmers.

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Patrick Spencer, the lawmaker for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, described the wildfire as an “extremely worrying situation” and expressed he is “deeply conscious of the impact on our farming community.”

“At such a critical point in the year, with harvest under way or about to begin for many, this is an especially difficult time for farmers whose land, livestock, or livelihoods are at risk,” he said.

A series of heat waves have recently gripped England, worsening wildfire conditions.

The U.K. Health Security Agency on Thursday said it estimates there were 2,877 heat-associated deaths during two notable periods of hot weather in May and June 2026, putting the country on track to record its highest number of heat-related deaths since modern records began.

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Seven areas of England have officially been declared as being in drought, after “record low rainfall and exceptionally high temperatures.”

British Water Minister Emma Hardy warned that the U.K. needs to be prepared “for this new normal” moving forward.

“Our climate is changing, droughts are becoming increasingly common,” she said. “We expect water companies to follow their drought plans, to go further and faster to reduce leaks, and to ensure supplies are not disrupted even in the driest of weather.”

This is the third drought in the past five years, with former extreme dry spells happening in 2022 and 2025.

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At the start of the summer, in the wake of last year’s blazes across North York Moors National Park in eastern England, the U.K. government strengthened its wildfire resilience, announcing it would be placing “teams of specialist firefighters will be positioned in key areas and ready to respond to fires across England.”

Read More: Photos Show the Destruction in France and Spain From Ferocious European Wildfires

The wildfire in England comes as other European countries, including France and Spain, continue to battle ferocious blazes

Three firefighters died Wednesday while facing wildfires on the island of Crete and in the south of the mainland, the Greek fire department said.

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Where are the Ethereum founders 11 years after the genesis block?

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Where are the Ethereum founders 11 years after the genesis block?

On July 30, 2015, the Genesis Block for the Ethereum protocol was mined.

The chain has become the second most important blockchain in the cryptocurrency ecosystem and has reached a market capitalization of over $230 billion, according to CoinGecko. Needless to say, its eight official founders have each profited greatly.

To honor this anniversary, Protos has taken a look at what they’re still publicly working on.

Vitalik Buterin

Vitalik Buterin is perhaps the individual most strongly identified with the Ethereum project, serving as its sincere and awkward spokesperson and guiding light.

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Unlike many of the other founders, he’s continued to work deeply on the Ethereum project, even remaining deeply involved with the Ethereum Foundation.

This makes him a frequent target of criticism, as many traders have been frustrated with what they see as the Ethereum Foundation not doing enough to support the project, or at least the price of the project.

Anthony Di Iorio

Anythony Di Iorio is one of the only co-founders to try to find an exit from the crypto ecosystem.

In 2021 he told Bloomberg, while he was trying to sell his cryptocurrency accelerator, that he doesn’t “feel necessarily safe in this space” and stated that crypto is “really a small percentage of what the world needs.”

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However, exiting isn’t always easy or clean. He’s since founded a firm called Andiami, which claims to be “building the tools to power the decentralized future.”

That project hasn’t posted on X since early 2023, or to its YouTube, Instagram, or blog since 2022, suggesting that it may be making slow progress on that stated goal.

Charles Hoskinson

Charles Hoskinson saw what Ethereum was doing and immediately thought that a different chain would be the solution to the problems that he saw.

He’d go on to found Cardano.

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Hoskinson has also attempted non-crypto projects like his failed Hoskinson Health and Wellness Clinic.

Year-to-date, Ethereum has lost 36% of its value to Cardano’s 55%.

Cardano has underperformed Ethereum substantially year-to-date. Ethereum has lost approximately 36% of its value, and Cardano has lost approximately 55%.

Hoskinson’s time at Ethereum was controversial and he was eventually forced out. According to Laura Shin’s Cryptopians, he’d make extraordinary claims, even implying he was Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Mihai Alisie

Mihai Alisie was the founder of Bitcoin Magazine, where Buterin also worked before founding Ethereum.

Alisie’s LinkedIn still describes them as the founder of the AKASHA Project.

Unfortunately though, that foundation closed down several months ago.

Amir Chetrit

Amir Chetrit was the founder of Colored Coins before joining Ethereum.

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His time at Ethereum was controversial; he and Hoskinson were eventually forced out in what Laura Shin called “Game of Thrones Day.”

Since then, Chetrit has reportedly continued working in crypto but with a low profile.

Joseph Lubin

Joseph Lubin has been one of the most entrepreneurial of the Ethereum co-founders, most prominently through ConsenSys.

ConsenSys has been a central player in the crypto ecosystem, being involved with the MetaMask wallet and the Infura infrastructure for Ethereum.

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The SEC had previously sued ConsenSys over MetaMask, but this suit was dropped during the second Trump administration.

Gavin Wood

Gavin Wood started as a Bitcoin developer before joining Ethereum.

He then went on to form Parity Technologies, which released the Parity client, and launched the Polkadot network, meant to be a “parachain” connecting various blockchains.

Jeffrey Wilcke

Jeffrey Wilcke keeps a low profile.

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He worked on Mastercoin before joining Ethereum and helped create the Geth (Go Ethereum) client.

Since then, he’s founded Grid Games with his brother, though when we tried to access its website, it timed out.

Broadly, many of the founders who started this so-called “world computer” have moved on from it.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Canada crypto ownership jumps to 25% in 2026

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Canada crypto ownership jumps to 25% in 2026

Crypto ownership in Canada has more than doubled since 2023, even as regulators warn that many investors still misunderstand platform protections and industry rules.

Summary

  • 25% of Canadians owned crypto in 2026, up from 10% in 2023.
  • The Ontario Securities Commission survey found 59% of respondents were aware of crypto assets.
  • Only about half of crypto owners checked whether their trading platform was registered.
  • Canada is also considering bans on crypto ATMs and digital asset political donations.

Canada crypto ownership more than doubles

Canada’s cryptocurrency ownership rate rose to 25% in 2026 from 10% in 2023, according to new research from the Ontario Securities Commission.

The OSC surveyed 2,360 Canadian adults between December 2025 and January 2026. Its findings showed that 59% of respondents were aware of crypto assets, while one in four reported owning them.

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The increase represents a 15-percentage-point gain in ownership over roughly three years. It also suggests that digital assets are reaching a broader section of the Canadian population despite persistent concerns about fraud, volatility and consumer protection.

“Crypto markets continue to evolve, and Canadians are participating in them more than ever before,” said Naizam Kanji, executive vice president of strategic regulation at the OSC.

“By identifying emerging trends and behaviors with our research, we can look around corners, anticipate potential opportunities and risks, and ensure our regulatory approach supports investor protection while fostering fair and efficient markets.”

The research arrives as major crypto companies seek a larger role in Canada’s financial market. As previously reported by crypto.news, Coinbase is preparing to expand its “Everything Exchange” strategy into the country.

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The plan would move Coinbase beyond cryptocurrency trading by combining tokenized stocks, traditional financial products and blockchain-based services in one application for Canadian users.

Investors remain confused about crypto protections

Growing ownership has been accompanied by greater awareness of risk, but the OSC found that knowledge of existing protections remained limited.

About 50% of crypto owners reported checking whether a platform was registered before opening an account or completing a transaction. That leaves a large portion of investors using services without first confirming their regulatory status.

Respondents also showed misunderstandings about how crypto platforms are regulated, whether digital assets carry insurance protections, and which transactions can be reversed or recovered.

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Those gaps matter because crypto holdings typically do not receive the same protections as deposits kept at regulated banks. Blockchain transactions may also be difficult or impossible to reverse after funds are sent to a fraudulent address.

For US investors, the Canadian findings reflect a familiar regulatory concern. American agencies and state authorities have also focused on platform registration, fraud disclosures and the differences between crypto accounts and insured bank deposits.

However, the two countries continue to develop their digital asset rules separately. A product offered to Canadian customers may not be available under the same terms in the United States.

Canada targets crypto ATMs and political donations

Higher adoption comes as Ottawa considers tougher restrictions on some uses of digital assets.

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Canada’s federal government outlined plans in its Spring Economic Update 2026 to prohibit crypto ATMs nationwide. Officials described the machines as a frequent tool for scammers seeking to collect money from victims or process illicit cash.

Investigations cited by the government identified crypto ATMs as a channel through which fraud victims are instructed to transfer funds. Unlike conventional bank transfers, payments sent through these machines can be difficult to recover once completed.

A separate bill introduced in March would restrict cryptocurrency donations to political groups. The proposal is part of a wider effort to tighten election-financing rules and limit foreign interference risks before the next federal election.

If approved, the measures would create a sharper divide in Canada’s approach to crypto. Authorities would continue allowing regulated ownership and financial products while restricting channels viewed as vulnerable to fraud, hidden funding or illicit activity.

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Regulation faces a rapid adoption test

Canada’s rising ownership rate places more pressure on regulators to balance market access with investor protection.

Coinbase’s proposed expansion could give local customers access to a broader selection of crypto and traditional financial products. At the same time, the planned ATM ban and political donation restrictions show that federal officials remain cautious about use cases that can obscure the source or destination of funds.

The OSC survey indicates that adoption is moving faster than investor understanding. Registration checks, insurance assumptions and transaction recovery remain central risks as more Canadians enter the market.

Future policy will therefore need to address both sides of the trend: growing demand for digital assets and the consumer-protection gaps that become more consequential as ownership rises.

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Samsung Subsidiary Tests Stablecoin Infrastructure via Upbit Operator

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Crypto Breaking News

Samsung SDS, the IT services arm of Samsung Group, is exploring cooperation with Dunamu—operator of the South Korean exchange Upbit—across stablecoin infrastructure, digital asset systems, and AI-enabled payment models, according to comments made by Samsung SDS CEO Lee Jun-hee during the company’s Q2 earnings call on Thursday.

The discussions signal that Samsung SDS is trying to translate its existing work in tokenization and settlement into commercial offerings in digital finance, at a time when South Korea is actively shaping its approach to stablecoins.

Key takeaways

  • Samsung SDS is in talks with Dunamu on stablecoin infrastructure and end-to-end digital asset processing, including issuance-to-settlement workflows.
  • The company points to prior capabilities built through Korea Securities Depository’s tokenized securities platform project and stablecoin process validation.
  • This effort builds momentum for Samsung’s broader digital asset strategy following separate plans to add stablecoin support to Samsung Wallet.
  • Samsung SDS frames its Dunamu investment and collaboration as strategic for digital finance infrastructure rather than purely financial returns.
  • Samsung SDS’ AI and cloud expansion appears to be running in parallel with its push into digital finance services.

Samsung SDS and Dunamu explore stablecoin and digital asset infrastructure

During Samsung SDS’s Q2 earnings call, CEO Lee Jun-hee said the company is discussing potential cooperation with Dunamu on three fronts: stablecoin infrastructure, digital asset systems, and AI-based payment business models. Samsung SDS indicated that it expects the partnership to help expand its presence in the digital asset infrastructure market.

Lee tied the planned collaboration to capabilities Samsung SDS says it has already developed. According to the CEO’s remarks, the company has “secured differentiated business capabilities” in digital asset infrastructure through work connected to the Korea Securities Depository’s tokenized securities platform project, as well as “end-to-end validation” across the stablecoin lifecycle—from issuance through settlement.

The practical implication for market participants is straightforward: infrastructure providers that can demonstrate reliable settlement-grade processes tend to be better positioned to support compliant, enterprise-grade stablecoin use cases—especially where tokenization needs to interoperate with existing financial systems.

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Collaboration follows Samsung’s wider stablecoin direction

The Dunamu talks come shortly after Samsung Electronics announced plans to add stablecoin support to Samsung Wallet, extending the group’s digital asset push beyond traditional hardware and consumer apps.

While the earnings call details focus on Samsung SDS and Dunamu’s infrastructure and systems work, the wallet development underscores a larger pattern: Samsung’s internal technology stack—from device-side wallets to enterprise-grade blockchain infrastructure—appears to be converging around stablecoins and tokenized finance.

For investors and builders, this matters because stablecoin adoption often depends on multiple layers working together: compliant issuance and settlement infrastructure, plus consumer-facing and merchant-facing distribution channels. Samsung’s efforts span both ends, even if the exact integration steps were not detailed in the Q2 remarks.

Earlier Samsung affiliate investment deepens the relationship

Samsung SDS’s latest comments also build on prior moves by Samsung affiliates. In May 2026, Samsung Securities, Samsung SDS, and Samsung Card agreed to buy a combined 4% stake in Dunamu, according to earlier coverage from Cointelegraph.

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In the most recent Q2 call, Lee reportedly described the Dunamu investment as a strategic step rather than a financial one, stating that the companies plan to refine potential business models for digital financial infrastructure. The transcript referenced by the company’s earnings materials positions the partnership as an effort to combine Samsung SDS’s IT, cloud, and security capabilities with Dunamu’s blockchain expertise.

Samsung SDS’ framing is notable because it suggests the collaboration is intended to produce repeatable infrastructure offerings, not merely one-off experiments. The company’s emphasis on stablecoin process validation—issuance through settlement—also points toward operational readiness as a differentiator.

AI and cloud growth run alongside the digital finance push

Samsung SDS’s digital asset initiative is unfolding alongside a broader expansion drive in AI and cloud services. The company’s Q2 financial update showed revenue rising 5.9% year on year to 3.72 trillion Korean won (about $2.6 billion), as cited in its quarterly earnings presentation.

Cloud revenue increased 17% from the prior year, and external cloud business revenue grew 75%, driven by demand for Samsung’s cloud platform and graphics processing unit-as-a-service offerings. These figures matter because stablecoin and digital asset infrastructure increasingly requires data handling, security controls, and scalable compute—areas where cloud and AI investment can directly support deployment and monitoring.

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Samsung SDS also reportedly outlined plans to expand its AI infrastructure footprint from 110 megawatts today to 230 MW by 2029 and more than 800 MW by 2031, according to the same earnings materials. While those AI capacity targets are not specific to stablecoin systems, they indicate management’s intent to build the compute backbone that can support both AI-enabled services and the operational needs of digital finance platforms.

In other words, the Dunamu collaboration looks like part of a wider platform strategy: infrastructure capabilities for tokenized finance paired with scalable computing and security.

Next, readers should watch for whether Samsung SDS and Dunamu move from partnership discussions to defined product or deployment milestones—especially any details about stablecoin issuance, settlement tooling, or AI-based payment workflows. The immediate uncertainty is timing: earnings call cooperation signals direction, but adoption and market impact will depend on how quickly concrete infrastructure plans are executed within South Korea’s evolving stablecoin regulatory environment.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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XRP price rebounds toward $1.10 as ETF inflows return

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XRP daily chart shows price rebounding to $1.09 while RSI remains neutral below 50.

XRP price rebounded toward $1.10 on July 30 as fresh ETF inflows and Aviva Investors’ move onto the XRP Ledger supported demand, although the charts show that sellers remain active near current levels.

Summary

  • XRP price rose 1.68% to $1.0917 on the daily chart after touching an intraday high of $1.0950.
  • XRP ETFs recorded $584,000 in net inflows on July 29, ending a 4-day pause.
  • The 4-hour chart places XRP at the $1.0908 Fibonacci resistance, with cash flow still negative.
  • Liquidation clusters near $1.10 and $1.065 could shape the token’s next short-term move.

XRP price rebounds but stays below daily resistance

According to data from crypto.news, XRP (XRP) price traded at $1.0917 at press time, gaining 1.68% after moving between $1.0685 and $1.0950. The rebound followed a decline that briefly pushed the token toward $1.045 earlier in the week.

Despite the recovery, XRP has not confirmed a broader bullish reversal. Its price remains slightly below the daily chart’s Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line at $1.0975, which now acts as immediate resistance.

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XRP daily chart shows price rebounding to $1.09 while RSI remains neutral below 50.
XRP price daily chart — July 30 | Source: crypto.news

A daily close above that level would place XRP back in the upper half of the Bollinger range. The next visible target would be the upper band at $1.1395, representing a potential gain of about 4.4% from the current price.

Momentum is still neutral. The daily relative strength index stands at 47.58, marginally below its signal line at 47.76 and under the neutral reading of 50.

That setup shows that buying pressure has improved from late-June levels, but bulls have not regained firm control. XRP has also traded sideways since early July after its sharp fall from above $1.40 in May.

ETF inflows return as Aviva adopts XRP Ledger

The recovery coincided with $584,000 in net inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds on July 29, according to SoSoValue. It marked their first positive daily flow since July 25.

The funds have remained net positive on a weekly basis for three consecutive weeks. However, the latest daily total remains small compared with XRP’s reported $1.26 billion in spot trading volume.

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Institutional interest also received support from Aviva Investors, a UK asset manager overseeing about $350 billion. The company plans to offer a tokenized share class of its USD Liquidity Fund on the XRP Ledger to eligible investors with crypto wallets.

Aviva’s move gives XRPL a large traditional-finance use case beyond payments and cryptocurrency trading. It follows the network’s implementation of the fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment on July 29.

For US investors, the return of ETF inflows provides a regulated way to measure demand for XRP exposure. However, uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act remains a risk because further delays could keep regulatory concerns in focus.

Four-hour XRP chart shows sellers near $1.09

The 4-hour chart places XRP directly against the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.0908. This level is calculated from the decline between $1.1644 and $1.0453.

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XRP 4-hour chart tests $1.09 Fibonacci and Supertrend resistance as CMF remains negative.
XRP price 4-hour chart — July 30 | Source: crypto.news

XRP briefly traded above the retracement level but had not secured a convincing 4-hour close beyond it. The Supertrend indicator also remained bearish, with its resistance line near $1.0912.

A confirmed break above this area would shift attention toward the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $1.1048. Higher targets sit at $1.1189, $1.1363 and the July swing high of $1.1644.

Money flow does not yet support a strong breakout. The 4-hour Chaikin Money Flow reading stands at minus 0.15, showing that capital continues to leave XRP despite the price recovery.

The negative CMF creates a divergence between rising prices and weak underlying demand. Unless the indicator moves above zero, a breakout beyond $1.10 may struggle to hold.

On the downside, $1.0708 is the first Fibonacci support. The 4-hour Supertrend support sits at $1.0507, close to the recent swing low and the daily lower Bollinger Band at $1.0556.

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Liquidation heatmap identifies the next XRP targets

CoinGlass’ three-day liquidation heatmap shows a dense concentration of leveraged positions immediately above XRP’s price. The strongest nearby liquidity rests around $1.098 to $1.10, aligning with the technical resistance identified on both price charts.

XRP three-day liquidation heatmap shows major liquidity clusters near $1.10 and $1.065.
XRP liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass

Markets often move toward large liquidation pools because forced position closures can add momentum. A break through $1.10 could therefore trigger short liquidations and push XRP toward the next liquidity band near $1.11.

A larger concentration is also visible just below $1.07, around $1.065. If XRP is rejected near $1.10, that lower pool could draw the price back toward the $1.0708 Fibonacci support.

Further downside liquidity appears between $1.04 and $1.05. A loss of $1.065 would therefore expose the recent low at $1.0453 and weaken the current recovery structure.

XRP’s immediate direction now depends on whether ETF-led demand can overcome the bearish Supertrend and negative money flow. A sustained close above $1.10 would strengthen the case for $1.1189 and $1.1395, while rejection could return the token to the $1.065–$1.071 support zone.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Above $64,000

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Crypto Breaking News

The Federal Reserve left benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.5% and 3.75%. However, three officials dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike.

Analysts believe the market had already priced in the decision, with Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies registering only marginal changes following the meeting. The flagship cryptocurrency is up 1.45%, trading around $64,491.

Interest Rates Unchanged

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged after a 9-3 vote in favor of the decision. The presidents of the Cleveland, Dallas, and Minneapolis Federal Reserve dissented with the decision, favoring a quarter-point hike. Bitcoin briefly crossed $64,000 following the decision but slipped back toward $63,000 before reclaiming $64,000.

The Fed highlighted stable unemployment levels and job growth, and said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. However, it conceded that inflation remains above the 2% target.

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has yet to give detailed guidance on future policy, preferring to focus on current economic data. Warsh has also created task forces to examine the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, inflation framework, productivity, communications, and labor-market analysis.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading below $65,000 as it continues its steady recovery after Monday’s downturn. Glassnode has identified $62,000 and $68,000 as Bitcoin’s heaviest cost-basis clusters, split evenly between long-term holders and short-term holders. If BTC can reclaim $69,000 and flip it to support, it could push toward the next supply wall between $83,000 and $86,000.

Glassnode also revealed that the three-month Bitcoin futures basis has yielded less than the two-year Treasury since February. Spot trading volume is also at its lowest level since 2019, and exchange activity has hit a three-year low.

Markets Expected Decision

Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies registered only a marginal response to the decision, suggesting the market had already priced it in. BTC registered a slight increase following the decision, while Ethereum (ETH) traded 0.6% higher. BNB registered a 0.4% increase following the decision, while Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Tron (TRON) also reported marginal increases.

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BTC is up 1.45%, trading around $64,836 at the time of writing. However, market sentiment remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently at 37.

Attention now turns to the upcoming inflation and employment data as investors look for indications that the Fed could raise interest rates in September. PCE data will be released July 30, with the July employment report next on August 7. July CPI data will be released on August 12, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September 15 and September 16.

Gold Outperforms Crypto

Safe-haven assets like gold have also outperformed cryptocurrencies. SPDR Gold Shares registered a 1.25% increase, while the iShares Silver Trust rose just over 2.50% following the Fed’s decision. The price action indicates investors prefer defensive exposure amid concerns about inflation and tensions in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, crypto stocks were mixed, with Strategy rising 2.1% and Coinbase declining 1.7%. Bitcoin miners Riot Platforms, MARA Holdings, and CleanSpark also recorded substantial declines.

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The broader reaction was subtle, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, Invesco QQQ, and iShares Russell 2000 ETF falling 0.4%.

Could The Clarity Act Be The Next Catalyst

Investors are now expecting the CLARITY Act to be the next needle mover when it comes to price action. Traders on Polymarket have given the legislation a 27% chance of becoming law in 2026. However, lawmakers remain deeply divided over ethics provisions and stablecoin rewards.

The banking industry has vehemently opposed stablecoin rewards, arguing they could drain capital from traditional savings accounts. Additionally, the CLARITY Act defines clear responsibilities for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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Tokenized Gold Clears DeFi Stress Test as Collateral Use Stays

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Crypto Breaking News

Tokenized gold has seen a surge in trading this year as physical bullion reached record levels, but most of the “on-chain” gold supply still isn’t being actively used inside DeFi. A new report by RedStone points to a clear bottleneck: only a small portion of tokenized gold is showing up as collateral in major lending protocols such as Aave v3 and Morpho.

RedStone reports that tokenized gold spot trading volume hit $90.7 billion in the first quarter, during a period when gold futures rallied to above $5,600 per troy ounce. Yet only about $63 million worth of Tether Gold (XAUT) and PAX Gold (PAXG) is currently posted as collateral on Aave v3 and Morpho—roughly 1.5% of the combined $4.2 billion market capitalization of those tokens.

Key takeaways

  • Tokenized gold trading is already large, with $90.7 billion in spot volume in Q1, but on-chain DeFi usage remains limited.
  • Only about $63 million of XAUT and PAXG is deployed as collateral on Aave v3 and Morpho—around 1.5% of the tokens’ combined value.
  • RedStone highlights resilience under stress: Aave processed its largest cluster of XAUT liquidations without disruption on March 23.
  • Gold’s drawdown—futures down more than 26% since January—has reduced demand for non-yielding assets, even as tokenized gold remains actively traded.
  • The main remaining challenge for tokenized gold is not performance in DeFi, but scaling collateral adoption across protocols.

Trading is surging, but DeFi collateral is lagging

The contrast between trading activity and collateral deployment is at the center of RedStone’s assessment. Despite strong market interest in tokenized bullion, the share actually put to work in lending markets is small.

According to the report, $63 million of XAUT and PAXG combined is being used as collateral on Aave v3 and Morpho, while the tokens collectively represent $4.2 billion in market capitalization. That means a large majority of tokenized gold is moving in spot markets without translating into deeper composability—at least within the two lending venues RedStone analyzed.

RedStone frames this as an adoption gap rather than a liquidity or reliability issue. In other words, the question is less “can tokenized gold operate in DeFi?” and more “why isn’t more of it being used as DeFi collateral?”

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March’s liquidation test showed it can hold up

One reason tokenized gold continues to attract attention is that it has already faced a real stress scenario in DeFi. RedStone notes that on March 23, Aave handled its largest cluster of XAUT liquidations without disruption during a sharp downturn in gold.

The liquidation wave followed a painful move in the underlying commodity. RedStone ties the event to a period where gold fell 10% over the previous week—described by JPMorgan precious metals strategist Greg Shearer as an “extremely brutal flush.”

Earlier that week, gold’s broader sell-off reflected macro pressure: expectations for higher US interest rates reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals. Cointelegraph previously reported that gold’s digital rally mirrored rising stress around the US dollar and interest-rate expectations, underscoring how quickly the commodity complex can shift.

From an investor or DeFi participant’s perspective, this matters because collateral reliability is foundational. If tokenized bullion fails to function during volatility, protocols would face operational risk and potentially forced deleveraging. RedStone’s takeaway is that, at least in that test, the system held.

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Gold’s macro headwinds haven’t vanished

Even with a strong start to the year, gold has continued to face rate-driven headwinds. RedStone notes that gold futures have declined by more than 26% since peaking in January.

The decline aligns with the broader logic that higher expected US rates can make it harder for non-yielding assets to compete. That dynamic helps explain why the commodity market can generate both volatility and skepticism—even as tokenized versions of the asset continue to draw trading interest.

For tokenized gold, the implication is straightforward: DeFi collateral won’t exist in a vacuum. When gold moves aggressively, the tokenized form must be liquid enough and operationally stable. RedStone’s March example is a reminder that performance during stress may be improving, but it doesn’t guarantee automatic growth in collateral usage.

Why collateral adoption remains the bottleneck

RedStone’s report emphasizes that tokenized gold’s next hurdle is broader DeFi adoption. Proven resilience helps, but scaling requires more than technical compatibility. It also depends on incentives, protocol support, and user demand for borrowing and leverage against tokenized RWA collateral.

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The tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market has been expanding beyond gold. RedStone points to a growing ecosystem that includes areas such as private credit and tokenized US Treasurys paired with equities. Token Terminal previously reported that the sector topped $43 billion in value.

At the same time, centralized crypto exchanges are rapidly building on-ramps for tokenized assets as they attempt to bridge traditional finance and digital markets. CoinGecko data (as reported by Cointelegraph) described an emerging “crypto TradFi” market reaching $6.6 billion as of June, suggesting that distribution and access for tokenized products are improving.

That backdrop raises a key question that investors may want to track: if tokenized assets are easier to access through centralized channels, why hasn’t that translated into proportionally higher DeFi collateral usage—at least in the specific tokens and protocols RedStone cited? The report doesn’t offer a single cause, but the data clearly shows the gap.

Going forward, the most important thing for readers to watch is whether tokenized gold’s demonstrated ability to function under volatility leads to meaningful increases in collateral deployment across DeFi lending platforms—especially as the sector continues to grow and as commodity-driven volatility returns.

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Former FTX member Leopold Aschenbrenner’s $20B AI fund blows up

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Former FTX member Leopold Aschenbrenner's $20B AI fund blows up

Leopold Aschenbrenner, the founder of hedge fund Situational Awareness, has seen his leveraged positions liquidated following a swift downturn in AI stocks.

Aschenbrenner, a former member of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX Future Fund team, launched his fund in 2024 and ran it up 1,000% by May this year.

However, CNBC reported Thursday that Situational Awareness had suffered “heavy losses,” needed cash for margin calls, and was consulting with investment bankers for the possibility of an orderly wind-down.

By midday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ken Griffin’s Citadel had bought “the bulk of its stock portfolio.”

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The fund was allegedly up 439% net of fees from January 1, 2026 through June 30 per a July 24 investor letter the FT cited. Then July happened.

Aschenbrenner had borrowed money to upsize his AI bets, including Sandisk, Nebius Group, and SharonAI Holdings that have each lost at least 30% during the month of July.

Leverage that multiplies gains on the way up does the same to losses on the way down. Holding a 3x leveraged portfolio in just those three stocks this month would have wiped out to $0.

Although Aschenbrenner gained notoriety for his outperforming AI bets prior to July, before he borrowed money for stock trading, he sat on the five-person team running the FTX Future Fund

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It was an effective altruism grant-making vehicle. Bankman-Fried funded it largely himself, partially using money that prosecutors proved he misappropriated from FTX customers.

Aschenbrenner joined at the vehicle’s launch in February 2022 but resigned on November 10 that year, one day before FTX filed for bankruptcy.

Another effective altruist needs more money

Aschenbrenner’s FTX Future Fund collapsed alongside FTX and Alameda Research after prosecutors exposed Bankman-Fried’s fraud.

“We were a tiny team, and then from one day to the next, it was all gone and associated with a giant fraud,” Aschenbrenner told the Dwarkesh Podcast.

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After ending work with FTX’s effective altruism in 2022, Aschenbrenner went to work for OpenAI’s Superalignment team. 

However, by April 2024, OpenAI had fired him over a disputed data leak. He turned the ousting into a viral manifesto, Situational Awareness. 

He launched a fund of the same name with a few hundred million dollars.

Read more: FTX-funded charity Effective Ventures to shut down in the UK

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The mark-to-market valuation of his hedge fund was certainly impressive prior to this month. Situational Awareness grew starter capital into an alleged $20 billion worth of assets by June, based on fleeting highs in AI stocks last month.

That valuation is nothing close to what investors in Situational Awareness will actually receive if they tried to withdraw today.

Buying Anthropic just like SBF taught him

Like Bankman-Fried taught him, Aschenbrenner bought a stake in AI company Anthropic, which grew to be worth roughly one fifth of Situational Awareness’ assets.

Concentrated allocations plus leverage can create outsized returns on the way up and equally outsized losses during downturns.

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Situational Awareness was an investor in major AI stocks, includingin SK Hynix’s US listing. Those ADR shares closed Wednesday about 15% below their US offering price.

Aschenbrenner’s investor letter admitted the fund had “not been immune” to the swings, particularly in Asia, per the Financial Times. Yet he insisted the selloff had created attractive buying opportunities.

Aschenbrenner previously claimed to have allocated almost all of his personal net worth invested into his own fund. Now, after another crash, the ex-FTX philanthropist is asking for more money.

Situational Awareness’ latest SEC report of its US holdings disclosed names as of March 31, 2026. The filing listed 42 positions worth $13.7 billion. The next 13F lands in mid-August, and it will specify the precise drawdown in July.

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CLARITY Act faces Senate test as Bessent demands vote

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Santiment flags Bitcoin euphoria after CLARITY win

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged senators to vote immediately on the CLARITY Act, increasing pressure on lawmakers to test support for the crypto market structure bill before the August recess.

Summary

  • Bessent demanded that the Senate vote “NOW” on the CLARITY Act.
  • Disputes over ethics enforcement and the BRCA provision continue to block a bipartisan agreement.
  • Polymarket traders place the bill’s chance of becoming law in 2026 at about 26%.
  • A negotiated ethics package could determine whether Democrats support advancing the legislation.

Bessent demands an immediate CLARITY Act vote

Bessent called on Senate leaders to bring the CLARITY Act to a vote before lawmakers leave Washington next week. In a post on X, he accused Democrats of resisting the legislation because they fear opposition from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and what he described as her “anti-crypto army.”

The Treasury secretary said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would test that theory in the coming days by forcing lawmakers to state their positions. He framed the bill as a choice between supporting US leadership in digital assets and allowing other countries to move ahead with clearer regulations.

“Will Senate Democrats be on the side of American Exceptionalism, or will they opt to cede American leadership of a global industry for fear of the bespectacled squirrel’s Left flank?”

His intervention comes as the Senate faces a narrowing legislative calendar. Thune previously said the chamber might begin the floor process before the recess but acknowledged that there may not be enough time or votes to pass the legislation during the current session. As such, missing the pre-recess window could reduce the bill’s chances of becoming law in 2026.

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Ethics and BRCA disputes threaten bipartisan support

Two provisions remain central to the negotiations: restrictions involving elected officials’ crypto interests and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, or BRCA.

Some Democrats have objected to language that gives the Department of Justice sole authority to enforce the ethics provisions. They want state attorneys general and other prosecutors to have enforcement powers rather than leaving oversight entirely to the federal government.

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is expected to send a bipartisan ethics proposal to the White House. Approval from the Trump administration could remove one obstacle and help Senate leaders attract the Democratic votes needed to advance the bill.

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats but would likely need support from at least seven Democrats to clear the chamber’s 60-vote threshold. The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act in July 2025 by a 294–134 vote, including support from 78 Democrats.

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Bessent defends protections for crypto developers

Bessent also rejected claims that the BRCA language would weaken authorities’ ability to pursue money laundering and other financial crimes. The provision seeks to clarify when developers of non-custodial blockchain software must register as money transmitters.

“The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act — which Washington lobbyists have spun up as a boogeyman for certain groups of prosecutors and law enforcement — does nothing other than codify longstanding Treasury Department policy that’s remained consistent across Administrations,” Bessent wrote.

He argued that developers who do not take custody of customer assets have not traditionally faced registration requirements under the Bank Secrecy Act. Prosecutors remain concerned that broadly written exemptions could limit their ability to bring cases against software providers connected to illicit transactions.

Law enforcement support has nevertheless increased after revisions to the bill. The National Fraternal Order of Police reversed its earlier opposition, saying its concerns had been addressed while investigators retained the tools needed to pursue crypto crime. The Major Cities Chiefs Association has also backed the revised legislation.

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Prediction-market odds fall as the recess approaches

Traders remain skeptical that the CLARITY Act will become law this year. Polymarket priced the probability at about 30% on July 30, with roughly $3 million wagered on the outcome. The odds had reached 82% in February before falling as negotiations stalled and the Senate calendar tightened. Polymarket data also showed traders narrowly favoring an eventual Senate vote total above 50.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, traded near $64,767 after moving between $63,252 and $65,040 during the day. The muted response indicates that traders are not yet treating Bessent’s demand as evidence that passage is secured.

For US investors and crypto businesses, the stakes extend beyond the immediate vote. The legislation is intended to divide oversight responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC while setting federal requirements for digital-asset intermediaries. Failure to reach an agreement would leave companies operating under the existing mix of agency actions, court decisions and state rules.

The next test is whether the White House accepts the negotiated ethics package and whether Thune schedules a procedural vote before the recess. Without enough Democratic support, Bessent’s demand may force senators to record their positions without moving the bill closer to final passage.

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Ontario Survey Finds Canadian Crypto Ownership Rises to 25%

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Crypto Breaking News

Canadian crypto participation is rising quickly, according to fresh research from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). The regulator’s latest survey suggests that the share of Canadians who own cryptocurrencies has climbed to 25% in 2026, up from 10% in 2023—an expansion that also coincides with broader awareness of crypto assets.

The OSC released the findings Tuesday, based on a poll of 2,360 Canadians aged 18 and over conducted between December 2025 and January 2026. The study found that 59% of respondents said they are aware of crypto assets, while 25% reported that they currently hold cryptocurrencies.

Key takeaways

  • The OSC survey reports crypto ownership has reached 25% in 2026, compared with 10% in 2023.
  • Awareness increased alongside ownership, with 59% of respondents indicating they know about crypto assets.
  • About half of crypto owners said they check whether a platform is registered before using it.
  • Despite growing caution, the OSC found widespread confusion about regulation, insurance protections, and transaction capabilities.

Ownership and awareness move upward

The OSC’s survey points to a clear jump in both familiarity and direct engagement with crypto. In 2026, a majority of respondents—59%—reported awareness of crypto assets, while one-quarter said they hold cryptocurrencies.

That shift matters for regulators because it implies crypto is moving from a niche activity toward mainstream consumer behavior. As more Canadians participate, investor protection issues typically become more urgent, particularly around how users choose platforms, understand risk, and interpret what protections (if any) apply when assets are held or transacted through a service.

OSC executive vice president of strategic regulation Naizam Kanji said the regulator expects “emerging trends and behaviors” to help it anticipate opportunities and risks, with the goal of supporting investor protection while fostering fair and efficient markets.

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Checking registrations—alongside continuing misunderstandings

One of the more actionable details in the OSC findings is how some users evaluate platforms. The survey indicates that about 50% of crypto owners reported checking whether a platform is registered prior to using it.

However, the report also suggests that heightened awareness does not necessarily translate into a correct understanding of the rules that govern crypto activity in Canada. The OSC said many respondents still had “some misunderstanding” around key issues—namely regulation, insurance protections, and transaction capabilities.

For investors, this mix of behavior is significant. Register checks can be a useful step, but misunderstanding the practical meaning of registration—or assuming protections exist where they do not—can expose users to avoidable losses. The OSC’s results imply that more effective education and clearer disclosures may be needed, even as adoption rises.

How Ottawa’s crypto proposals fit the trend

The OSC’s survey lands amid ongoing policy debate in Canada about the appropriate ways to regulate different crypto-related activities. According to the report, lawmakers in Ottawa have been considering measures tailored to how cryptocurrencies are used in practice.

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Earlier this year, the federal government advanced a bill that could prohibit political donations made using crypto. The government also proposed banning crypto ATMs, citing concerns about scams and money laundering. Taken together, these proposals highlight a broad regulatory theme: as crypto use grows, authorities are focusing not just on trading and custody, but also on high-risk channels that can enable fraud.

While the OSC survey focuses on awareness, ownership, and user understanding, Ottawa’s legislative direction underscores a parallel concern among policymakers—reducing harm where crypto intersects with consumers and enforcement challenges.

What to watch next for Canadian investors

The OSC’s data suggests that Canada’s crypto base is expanding while gaps in consumer understanding remain. The most important question for users and market participants is whether regulators will translate these survey insights into clearer requirements, better consumer education, and more targeted enforcement—especially in areas where misunderstanding could lead to financial harm.

As the next rounds of research and policy developments emerge, Canadians should pay close attention to how platform registration is communicated in practice, what protections users can realistically expect, and which services regulators move to restrict or supervise more tightly.

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