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Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Depends on This Single On-Chain Indicator

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Bitcoin's Next Bull Run Depends on This Single On-Chain Indicator


This on-chain metric turning negative has repeatedly meant seller exhaustion and the transition from bear markets to bull cycles.

The cryptocurrency market remained subdued amidst short-term nerves, mixed signals, and no clear direction. Bitcoin also showed limited conviction and was visibly under pressure after shedding over 1% of its value in the last 24 hours.

Data shows BTC’s strongest rallies start only after long-term investors absorb unrealized losses and selling pressure fully exhausts itself.

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Bitcoin Bulls Await

Joao Wedson, co-founder of Alphractal, said Bitcoin’s next major bull cycle has historically begun only after long-term holders move into unrealized losses. According to Wedson, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term holders, which tracks the average unrealized gains or losses of the most resilient market participants, currently stands at 0.36. Such a trend indicates that these investors remain in profit.

However, Wedson explained that the important signal appears when this metric turns negative. A negative NUPL means even long-term holders are underwater, a condition that has consistently coincided with periods of extreme market pessimism.

In past cycles, such phases pointed to seller exhaustion and a redistribution of coins toward stronger hands. Wedson noted that this environment has historically represented the final stage of bear markets and preceded the start of a new bull run, which means that major opportunities tend to emerge during periods of market depression rather than at cycle highs.

Low MVRV

Similar conditions are now being flagged by Bitcoin’s valuation indicators. CryptoQuant, for one, found that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has entered its “Accumulation Zone” for the first time in four years, a move last seen in May 2022.

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According to the analytics firm, the previous instance of MVRV falling into this range was followed by a sharp price correction, as Bitcoin declined roughly 50% from around $30,000 to $15,000. CryptoQuant explained that the Accumulation Zone is defined by MVRV remaining below 1.44 and potentially falling as low as 0.90, levels that historically indicate periods when the crypto asset is undervalued relative to its realized price.

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These conditions typically coincide with high market pessimism and reduced speculative activity. The firm also added that, based on historical patterns, continued periods with MVRV below 1.44 have offered favorable phases for long-term accumulation, even as price volatility and downside risk remain quite high in the short term.

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Crypto World

Metaplanet Revenue Jumps 738% as Bitcoin Accounts for 95% of Income

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Metaplanet Revenue Jumps 738% as Bitcoin Accounts for 95% of Income

Japanese public company Metaplanet reported explosive revenue growth after pivoting its business around Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency now accounting for most of its operating activity.

According to its fiscal year 2025 earnings report, revenue climbed to 8.9 billion Japanese yen ($58 million) from $7 million a year earlier, a 738% year-on-year increase. The surge followed the launch of the company’s Bitcoin (BTC) income operations.

“We launched the Bitcoin Income business in Q4 2024. Since then, this strategy has become our primary revenue source and is expected to remain a core driver of profit growth,” the company wrote.

A revenue breakdown shows about 95% of total income came from Bitcoin-related operations, largely generated through premium income from BTC options transactions. The company only began the segment in late 2024, replacing traditional business lines such as hotel and media activities as the core of its financial model.

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Metaplanet revenue surge. Source: Metaplanet

Related: Metaplanet sticks to Bitcoin buying plan as crypto sentiment hits 2022 lows

Bitcoin price drop pushes Metaplanet into loss

Operating profit reached about $40 million, but the company still posted a net loss of roughly $619 million. The loss stemmed from accounting rules. Since Metaplanet holds large Bitcoin reserves, it must reflect price swings on its financial statements, and a more than $664 million valuation drop erased the year’s operating income.

The company has aggressively accumulated Bitcoin amid the business shift. Holdings increased from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC by the end of 2025, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in Japan. The company has also raised more than $3.2 billion in capital since adopting its treasury strategy.

Metaplanet described its model as a long-term Bitcoin treasury approach, aiming to “acquire and hold Bitcoin permanently to hedge against fiat currency dilution and benefit from long-term value appreciation.”

The company expects growth to continue next year, forecasting revenue of about $104 million and operating profit of $74 million.

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Related: Metaplanet lifts 2026 revenue outlook despite $680M Bitcoin impairment

Metaplanet CEO reaffirms Bitcoin strategy despite market selloff

Earlier this month, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said the company will stick with its Bitcoin-focused approach even as the broader crypto market undergoes a sharp downturn. In a post on X, he stated there would be no shift in direction despite recent volatility.