Banking giant Goldman Sachs expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points following Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for September 15 to 16.

JPMorgan also offered a hawkish outlook after data revealed consumer and producer prices rose more than expected in August, and oil prices returned above $100 following renewed Middle East hostilities.

Goldman Sachs Walks Back On Interest Rate Forecast

Goldman Sachs initially stated it did not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates following September’s FOMC meeting. However, it walked back on its prediction after August data strengthened the case for a hike. The banking giant now expects a 25 basis-point rate hike, which would lift the target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%.

According to the Federal Reserve’s official calendar, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce its decision on September 16 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. A rate hike could put substantial pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets. Higher rates generally lead to a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity conditions.

“Goldman Sachs has abandoned its forecast for the Fed to keep rates unchanged next week. The bank now expects a 25 basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting. That could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets, as higher rates generally mean tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar.”

According to a research note by Goldman Sachs, the bank made a marginal adjustment to its Personal Consumption Expenditures estimate, raising it to 0.26%. The bank stated in its research note, “[The report] has not changed our fundamental inflation view.”

However, it warned of a sharp market response if interest rates were held steady, given it had already assigned a nearly 90% probability of a rate hike following the meeting.

August Inflation Data Muddles Waters

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August, while headline inflation remained steady at 3.4% over 12 months. Core CPI, which removes food and energy, rose 0.3% in August, but its annual rate declined from 2.5% to 2.4%, its lowest level in five years. However, the energy index climbed 16.3%, while food prices increased 2.7%. Airline fares, communication services, lodging, education, and used vehicles also rose, while medical care and motor vehicle insurance declined.

According to Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, the Federal Reserve is not happy with some of the service sector numbers, despite the annual core rate falling. According to her estimates, services excluding housing rose 0.5% in August and 3% over one year.

“The gains were heavily in services.”

According to Swonk, August headline PCE inflation could rise 0.4%, while core PCE could increase by 0.3%, putting annual rates at 3.8% and 3.4%, respectively.

Economists Argue Against Hawkish Forecast

However, some economists have pushed back against forecasts by Wall Street banks. James Thorne, chief marketing strategist at Wellington-Altus, questioned Goldman Sachs’ revised position, stating that it likely reflected market expectations rather than a changed inflation outlook. Thorne stated, “No material change in inflation outlook, but a hike to calm Wall Street.”

He also highlighted a 3.1% increase in the annual wage to buttress the argument against a wage-price spiral. He added that higher borrowing costs cannot impact oil production or supply-chain disruptions, and that a rate hike could reduce demand, investments, and purchasing power.

Meanwhile, Swonk believes there will be three rate hikes by early 2027, stating, “We now expect three rate hikes by early 2027.”

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $77,700, up almost 1% over the past 24 hours. However, it is more than 2% in the red on the weekly timeframe. The flagship cryptocurrency briefly crossed $78,000 after the odds of a rate hike reached 81%, and was trading above $79,000 before the inflation figures were released.

The flagship cryptocurrency started the previous week in the red, dropping 1.55% to $79,091. Selling pressure persisted on Tuesday, with the price dropping 0.82% to $78,447, before falling to an intraday low of $77,589. Buyers attempted a recovery on Wednesday as BTC reached an intraday high of $79,752. However, it lost momentum after reaching this level, marginally declining and closing the day at $78,283. Selling pressure intensified on Thursday as BTC fell over 2% to $76,536.

Buying pressure returned on Friday, and BTC climbed to an intraday high of $79,852. However, it could not cross $80,000, losing momentum and ultimately settling at $77,208, up 0.88% from Thursday. The price rose marginally on Saturday before declining 0.60% to $76,799. BTC is up 1.28% during the ongoing session, trading around $77,780.

The 14-day RSI is currently in the mid-50s, putting it in neutral territory. Meanwhile, the MACD has flipped to bearish, but suggests downward momentum is waning. The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 68, putting it firmly in “Greed” territory. However, markets expect a decline in BTC prices if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates following the FOMC meeting.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Bitcoin is entering the third week of September trading beneath important weekly support levels, with traders bracing for two closely watched US catalysts: a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision on Wednesday and a Senate procedural vote on the proposed CLARITY Act on Tuesday.

While macro expectations and policy headlines are driving near-term caution, market structure remains mixed. On the one hand, funding-related indicators point to an ongoing build-up of bullish leverage. On the other, Bitcoin’s latest weekly close failed to hold the technical thresholds that bulls had been defending.

Key takeaways

• CME Group’s FedWatch pricing has shifted toward another rate hike, with the probability of holding steady around 13.3% at the time of writing.
• The Senate is set to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act Tuesday, a step that could send the bill to the floor if it clears.
• Crypto sentiment data from Santiment shows a notable drop in Bitcoin open interest in the week through Sept. 11, suggesting traders trimmed exposure ahead of volatility.
• CryptoQuant’s research highlights a return of positive aggregate funding rates since late May, indicating longs are increasingly paying shorts.
• Technically, Bitcoin closed below its 50-week EMA near $77,380, while RSI divergence remains a lingering bullish factor.

Fed decision becomes the main volatility trigger

For risk assets, Wednesday’s Fed outcome is the centerpiece. Multiple policy dynamics are converging: persistent inflation concerns, energy-driven price pressures, and ongoing debate within the central bank about whether rates should be raised.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets were pricing in a low likelihood of a pause. At the time of writing, the implied probability of rates staying at current levels was about 13.3%. Cointelegraph previously noted that markets had reacted differently to earlier decisions—especially around periods when Chair Kevin Warsh kept rates unchanged while some officials preferred a hike—setting up a backdrop where trader expectations can swing quickly.

The shift in pricing comes as inflation data did not deliver major upside surprises, but crude oil has remained a headwind. Markets reacted hawkishly despite the CPI and PPI prints, reflecting elevated energy costs and the sense that supply constraints may not be easing.

Commentary from The Kobeissi Letter emphasized how disruptions tied to key maritime routes could intensify the energy shock. In an X post cited by Cointelegraph, the account warned that roughly 30 million barrels per day may be unable to transit through certain routes, with additional risk flagged for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It also pointed to consumer inflation expectations rising, with gas prices and tariffs frequently referenced as contributors.

CLARITY Act vote turns into a near-term sentiment test

Alongside the Fed, US legislative progress on crypto regulation is on the calendar. Tuesday’s Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act could become a catalyst for speculative positioning because it determines whether the bill advances toward debate on the floor.

On Monday, Senate Republicans released what they described as their “last, best and final offer” for the Act’s text after bipartisan negotiations aimed at producing a clearer legal framework. Senator Cynthia Lummis, who released a 635-page updated proposal, said the bill was ready following a year of negotiations. She also highlighted ethics restrictions in the proposal and argued that a procedural “no” would oppose reforms and leave US digital-asset markets with insufficient protections.

The procedural step requires 60 votes to pass, with a vote scheduled for 2:15 pm on Tuesday. If the bill clears, it can move to the Senate floor for debate. If it fails, traders are likely to reassess the timeline for regulatory clarity—an uncertainty that can spill over into broader risk appetite.

Market expectations for passage remain cautious. On Polymarket, odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 were cited at about 34% at the time of reporting, with higher probabilities last seen earlier in August.

Derivatives positioning: traders de-risk before headlines

In the lead-up to Tuesday’s Senate vote and Wednesday’s Fed announcement, multiple analytics snapshots suggested traders were adjusting exposure rather than leaning aggressively into the next move.

According to Santiment’s analysis of open interest across exchanges, positioning had already shifted ahead of the two headline events. Santiment commented that the market appeared to have “already made its move,” pointing to the idea that derivatives participants had started preparing for volatility.

Specifically, Santiment data showed Bitcoin open interest in BTC terms falling 13.5% in the week through Sept. 11—down from about 321,497 BTC to roughly 278,151 BTC—followed by only a modest rebound. Over the same period, spot price was reported to have fallen about 5%. Santiment also stated that positioning sat around 20% below levels seen before the mid-August rally.

In practical terms, that matters because reduced open interest often limits how much leverage can amplify price swings. Still, a decline in open interest can also be consistent with traders waiting on confirmation from upcoming policy decisions.

Funding rates stay bullish as Bitcoin trades near $80,000

Even as traders trimmed derivatives exposure, onchain research pointed to continued improvement in sentiment reflected by funding rates. CryptoQuant argued that new signals in perpetual funding suggest bullish pressure building as BTC/USD trades near the $80,000 area.

CryptoQuant noted that aggregate funding rates have gradually risen since the end of May, after a period of negative funding that began in early March. Funding rates—driven by the balance of long and short demand—can reveal whether the market is paying to hold longs or shorts.

In the research cited by Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant described how bearish sentiment had prevailed during a “disbelief phase,” during which funding rates reflected one of the most bearish readings in Binance derivatives. It suggested that the buildup of shorts after a roughly -52% drawdown contributed to the rally seen in May.

CryptoQuant further observed that negative cumulative 30-day funding rates on Binance tended to line up with late-stage bear markets and with major corrections inside bull-market periods. This pattern-based framing is useful for traders, but it does not eliminate uncertainty—funding can remain bullish even if price action later fails to follow through.

Cointelegraph also previously reported concerns about the lack of spot-market participation in Bitcoin’s upside, implying that derivatives-led momentum may not always translate into sustained spot-driven uptrends.

Weekly structure weakens: support breaks under the 50-week EMA

Technical analysis remains the clearest immediate map for where risk may rise or fall. Bitcoin’s latest weekly close did not hold the levels bulls were watching.

As reported, Bitcoin ended the Sunday weekly close around $76,800 after failing to defend key support. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that $78,300 was necessary to hold at the weekly close. Failure to do so, he warned, could reopen the possibility of repeating the “failed breakout” pattern seen earlier in May.

Rekt Capital also pointed to a chart of lower highs, suggesting Bitcoin continues to preserve a longer-term bearish market structure. The weekly close was additionally below Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average at about $77,380—a trend line that bulls typically want reclaimed as part of a more durable bullish shift.

Looking to the next technical level, Rekt Capital referenced the 21-week EMA near $72,270 as a potential line in the sand. He added that both the 21-week and 50-week EMAs often act as support in bull markets, and that losing them sustainably would be evidence that Bitcoin is not yet in a fully established bull cycle.

Despite these weaknesses, a bullish factor remains in the background: Bitcoin’s RSI kept higher lows through 2026, maintaining a “weekly bullish divergence” that some analysts treat as a supportive signal even when price temporarily dips.

What to watch next

With the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the Fed’s Wednesday rate decision approaching, traders may continue to reshape risk quickly—especially if derivatives positioning swings alongside any procedural or macro outcome. Beyond the headlines, investors should monitor whether Bitcoin can reclaim the 50-week EMA area and whether RSI divergence continues to hold as confirmation, or fades as support weakens.

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the third week of September below key weekly support levels as traders eye volatility cues.

• The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday amid stubborn inflation and a mounting oil-price squeeze.
• The Senate will vote on whether to advance the crypto CLARITY Act on Tuesday — a key moment for market sentiment.
• Bitcoin finished last week below its 50-week moving average near $77,400, although a bullish RSI divergence continues to play out.

Fed’s Warsh seen hiking rates despite Trump pressure

The Federal Reserve takes the spotlight for risk-asset traders this week as Wednesday’s decision on interest rates dictates the mood.

On the back of high inflation and cautious words from chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed is widely expected to hike benchmark rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% despite several dissenting officials in favor of holding them at current levels. The setup echoes that of the Fed’s July rate decision, when Warsh held rates while several voices argued for a hike.  Now, Warsh faces pressure from US president Donald Trump not only to avoid a hike but to enact rate cuts.

The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of rates staying at their current levels at just 13.3% at the time of writing. A week ago, the implied probability of a rate pause was above 40%, but it pulled back in the face of recent inflation data and oil-price gains from escalation in the Middle East.

Fed target rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

While the August print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both avoided major upside surprises, markets reacted hawkishly as oil prices returned above $100 per barrel with no end to the supply crisis in sight.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned of the severity of the resulting energy shock, as 30 million barrels per day will be unable to transit through the Strait of Hormuz or Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait now also at risk.

“Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market,” it wrote in a post on X.

Kobeissi noted increasing inflation expectations among US consumers, who saw price increases hitting 4.6% over the coming year — 1.1% more than their outlook at the start of 2026 — with gas prices and trade tariffs frequently referenced.

US consumer inflation expectations data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.com

CLARITY Act rewrite faces crucial vote

On Tuesday, a day prior to the Fed decision, crypto markets will face their own reckoning as US officials debate the CLARITY Act.

On Monday, Senate Republicans released what they called their “last, best and final offer” for the text of the Act, part of bipartisan negotiations that seek to provide the industry with a clear legal framework in the US.

“After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Senator Cynthia Lummis, who released the 635-page updated proposal, said in an official release. 

“President Trump voluntarily agreed to unprecedented ethics restrictions, holding every federally elected official, judge, and their spouses to some of the toughest ethics restrictions in US history.”

CLARITY now faces a procedural vote at 2:15 pm on Tuesday, requiring 60 votes to pass. Snap volatility could ensue on the back of the result. If the bill passes in its latest form, it can advance to the floor for Senate debate.

“A no vote on Tuesday means opposing real ethics reforms on politicians’ personal investments, handing American leadership in digital assets to our foreign competitors, and leaving Americans with zero protections in the digital asset markets,” Lummis added.

Speaking to podcast host Kyle Chasse on Saturday, crypto policy insider Tyler Williams, formerly a crypto adviser to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, was upbeat about Tuesday’s prospects.

“What are the odds? I think they are better than they have ever been. We are closer — we are on the precipice of this becoming law,” he said. 

Among Polymarket users, the odds of CLARITY being signed into law in 2026 remain low. At the time of writing, there was a mere 34% chance of that outcome. Higher odds were last seen at the start of August.

Betting odds for CLARITY Act passing into law. Source: Polymarket

Crypto traders de-risk in advance of CLARITY, Fed

The latest market analysis indicates that traders are removing risk prior to Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s headline events.

Examining changes in open interest (OI) across exchanges, crypto sentiment platform Santiment argued that markets are already prepared for volatility ahead of both the CLARITY Act vote and Fed interest-rate announcement.

“Everyone is watching Tuesday’s cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed. The positioning data says the market already made its move,” it commented on Monday.

Santiment data shows that OI in BTC terms, calculated from USD-denominated OI divided by the BTC price, fell 13.5% in the week through Sept. 11, from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC, subsequently rebounding only modestly. At the same time, spot price itself fell by 5%.

“Positioning sits about 20% below where it was before the mid-August rally,” Santiment added.

Bitcoin OI data. Source: Santiment

Funding rates repeat bullish trends

Funding rates continue to build bullish sentiment as BTC/USD trades near $80,000, new research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant argues.

Since the end of May, aggregate funding rates across exchanges have gradually increased, following the end of a negative-rate period that began in early March. Funding rates reflect the balance of long and short interest among traders.

“After a disbelief phase, during which funding rates reflected one of the most bearish sentiments ever seen in Binance derivatives, the buildup of shorts that followed a -52% drawdown ended up fueling May’s rally,” CryptoQuant commented in a blog post on Sunday. 

“It’s particularly interesting to observe how this bearish consensus has consistently shown up whenever Bitcoin was nearing the end of a correction.”

CryptoQuant data shows that negative cumulative 30-day funding rates on Binance have accompanied the final stages of Bitcoin bear markets, as well as major corrections within bull markets.

Bitcoin 30-day summed funding rates (Binance). Source: CryptoQuant

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the ongoing lack of spot-market participation in Bitcoin’s recent upside, with analysis warning that the derivatives-led market momentum was unlikely to last.

Bitcoin weekly support slips from bulls’ grasp

Bitcoin’s price failed to defend a key support level during Sunday’s weekly close, ending around $76,800.

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In comments on Sunday, trader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated that $78,300 was necessary to hold at the weekly close. Failure to do so, he warned, would open the path for Bitcoin to repeat its failed breakout from early May.

An accompanying chart shows BTC/USD continuing to form a pattern of lower highs, keeping the long-term bear-market structure intact.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitcoin also closed below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,380, a trend line necessary to clear as part of a sustainable bullish trend change. Rekt Capital eyed the 21-week EMA at $72,270 as bulls’ next line in the sand.

“Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market. So if they can’t hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet,” he told X followers.

The close nonetheless preserved a weekly bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which continues to see higher lows through 2026.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 21, 50 EMA; RSI. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView