Crypto World

Bittensor (TAO) price prediction: The halving effect

Published

1 month ago

1 July 2026

TAO daily price chart showing a broad downtrend, with the token falling toward the $200 support level after repeated lower highs.

Bittensor cut its emissions in half in December, and roughly 70% of the supply is locked in staking. The supply side looks tight, but a halving only moves price if demand shows up to meet it.

Summary

Bittensor (TAO) ran its first halving on Dec. 12, 2025, cutting daily emissions from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO against a fixed 21 million cap, the same hard-cap design Bitcoin uses.
TAO trades near $250 as of late June 2026, roughly 65% below its early-2024 record near $757, ranked around #27 to #37 with a market cap close to $3 billion and only about 11 million tokens in circulation.
The bull case rests on a tightening float: with around 70% of supply staked for roughly 10% yield, the halved emissions slowly thin out sell-side pressure, which can lift price if demand holds or grows.
The bear case is that a halving is a supply event the market already knew about, and TAO’s real problem is proving its subnets capture lasting value instead of riding AI-narrative momentum that fades.
Analyst forecasts for 2026 run wide, from Gate near a $236 average to Coinpedia eyeing a $500 reclaim, with the outcome hinging on subnet revenue, ETF flows, and the broader AI trade more than on the halving alone.

Bittensor’s first halving is already in the past. It happened on Dec. 12, 2025, and the daily issuance of TAO dropped from 7,200 tokens to 3,600 overnight. So the live question for 2026 is not whether the halving will happen. It is what a halving actually does to a token whose price sits 65% below its record, whose technical picture is bearish, and whose deeper story is still unproven. The supply math is real. Whether it matters depends on demand, and that is the harder part of the forecast.

This piece walks through how the Bittensor halving works, why a supply cut takes months to filter into the market, the demand-side question the halving does not answer, what the charts say at current levels, the institutional wildcard around a possible spot ETF, and where analysts think TAO could trade in 2026. It closes with bull, base, and bear scenarios and a short FAQ.

How the Bittensor halving actually works

Bittensor is an open marketplace for machine intelligence. Models, compute, and data compete inside specialized markets called subnets, and the network scores their output through a mechanism known as Yuma Consensus.

TAO is the settlement token that pays for useful work and secures the network through staking. The protocol was started in 2019 by AI researchers Ala Shaabana and Jacob Steeves, and its token design borrows directly from Bitcoin: a fixed cap of 21 million coins and a halving schedule that cuts new issuance over time.

The December 2025 halving was the first of these events. Daily emissions fell from 7,200 TAO to 3,600. In plain terms, the network now mints half as much new TAO each day as it did before. Miners and validators who earn TAO for their contributions receive a smaller flow of new tokens, which over time means less fresh supply hitting the market. The mechanism is the same logic that underpins Bitcoin halvings, where reduced issuance has historically preceded periods of price strength, though the cause and effect is never as clean as the charts make it look in hindsight.

The key difference between a halving in theory and a halving in practice is timing. Issuance dropped instantly on the halving date, but the effect on circulating supply is gradual. The tokens already in circulation do not disappear, and the slower drip of new supply only changes the balance of buyers and sellers over weeks and months, not in a single candle. That is why the halving is better understood as a structural shift in the background rather than a switch that flips price higher on the day.

Why the supply cut takes months to bite

The most important number for the supply thesis is not the emission rate. It is how much TAO is locked away and cannot be sold. Roughly 70% of the circulating supply is staked by validators and delegators, who earn an annual yield in the region of 10% for securing the network. Staked tokens are not idle, but they are also not sitting on exchange order books waiting to be dumped. That combination, halved emissions plus a high staking ratio, is what makes the Bittensor float look unusually thin compared with most tokens of similar size.

Here is the chain of logic the bulls lean on. New supply has been cut in half. A large majority of existing supply is staked and earning yield, so holders are paid to keep it locked. If demand for TAO stays flat or rises while the liquid, sellable float shrinks, the price pressure shifts upward over time. This is the classic supply-shock argument, and on paper it is coherent. With only about 11 million of the 21 million cap in circulation and most of that staked, the genuinely tradable supply is a fraction of the headline number.

The honest caveat is that supply shocks are slow and conditional. The phrase doing the heavy lifting is “if demand stays flat or rises.” Reduced emissions cannot lift a price by themselves if buyers walk away faster than sellers do. Through the first half of 2026, that is roughly what happened: TAO slid toward $200 in early June before rebounding, even though the halving was months in the rearview mirror. The supply setup was already in place, and it did not stop the drawdown. The lesson is that the halving loads the spring, but something on the demand side has to pull the trigger.

The demand side the halving does not solve

This is the part of the forecast that actually decides where TAO goes, and it has nothing to do with the halving. Bittensor’s value depends on whether its subnets capture real, durable economic demand for machine intelligence, or whether TAO is mostly a high-beta proxy for AI enthusiasm that rises and falls with the narrative.

There is a real case to make. The subnet ecosystem has expanded past 120 active markets, each handling a specialized task such as inference, compute, data, or prediction. The network reported around $43 million in Q1 2026 revenue from AI services, which is a concrete sign that money is moving through the system instead of just speculation.

The Dynamic TAO, or dTAO, upgrade lets subnets allocate emissions based on real demand instead of fixed rewards, which is meant to price intelligence by the market and push Bittensor from a research project toward actual economic activity. The ambition is large: to be the settlement layer for intelligence itself, the place where models, compute, data, and incentives meet in one market.

The bear reading is that this is still unproven, and the network has shown it can break. In April 2026, a high-profile subnet exit triggered a roughly 25% price drop, exposing how much concentration and governance fragility sit underneath the optimistic story. The market punished the weak decentralization signal fast.

The deeper worry is value capture: even if subnets generate revenue, it is not yet clear how much of that value flows back to the TAO token itself rather than to the subnet operators or token holders downstream. An AI token can have busy subnets and still struggle to translate that activity into sustained token demand.

When AI excitement runs hot across the market, TAO tends to jump, and when attention rotates elsewhere, it tends to fade. That correlation is the bear case in one sentence: if TAO is mostly AI-hype beta, the halving will not save it.

NEW: $TAO rallies 30% in 12 hours after Anthropic AI model suspension. The move highlights interest in decentralized AI alternatives like Bittensor pic.twitter.com/YrNJDKlks3
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) June 16, 2026

What the charts say right now

At current levels near $250, TAO sits in a bearish-to-neutral technical posture. Through June, it traded below the cluster of 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages sitting roughly between $256 and $270, which means the medium-term trend has been pointing down and that band overhead acts as resistance. Momentum readings have hovered in weak-to-neutral territory, with relative strength index values in the mid-30s to mid-50s depending on the day, not oversold enough to scream reversal and not strong enough to confirm one.

The levels traders watch are clear. On the downside, the $200 area has acted as a line in the sand through June, and a decisive break below it opens the door toward the February low near $163. On the upside, the first hurdle is reclaiming that $256 to $270 moving-average band, and above it the structure points toward $352 and then $396, the levels several analysts flag as the gateway to a larger move.

The longer-term chart frames the whole range: an accumulation floor around $160 to $200 and a distant ceiling near the $720 to $760 zone that produced the record in early 2024. TAO has cycled inside that channel before, finding demand at the lows and heavy profit-taking at the highs.

The takeaway from the charts is that TAO is not in a breakdown, but it is not in an uptrend either. It needs to reclaim its moving averages before the supply thesis gets any technical confirmation, and until it does, the halving narrative is a fundamental tailwind fighting a bearish trend.

The institutional wildcard

The most underpriced catalyst in the TAO forecast may be the one that has nothing to do with the chart. Grayscale filed an S-1 for a Bittensor trust on Dec. 30, 2025, and its Grayscale Bittensor Trust is already live over the counter, giving accredited investors a regulated wrapper for TAO exposure. Bitwise has also filed for a spot TAO product, with a U.S. regulatory decision expected around August 2026. The exact timing is not guaranteed, and approval is not certain, but the direction of travel matters.

The reason this is a wildcard rather than a sure thing is the corridor it opens. Once an asset is treated as ETF-eligible, it stops being dismissed as a pure speculation and starts being treated as infrastructure exposure that funds can hold without touching spot crypto directly. Bitcoin went through this in its earlier institutional phase, and Ethereum followed.

TAO is now entering the same corridor as the leading decentralized-AI asset. Anticipation alone can move price, because spot buyers tend to position early when future access looks credible.

There is a broader narrative tailwind too. When confidence in centralized AI wobbles, capital has flowed toward decentralized alternatives, and one such episode pushed an estimated $2.87 billion into AI crypto tokens inside a single week. TAO is the default beneficiary of that rotation given its position as the category leader by market cap. The flip side is that this same dependence on the AI narrative is exactly the fragility the bears point to: flows that arrive on a narrative can leave on one too.

What analysts forecast for TAO in 2026

Forecasts for TAO in 2026 span an enormous range, which is itself the honest signal: the outcome depends on variables no model can pin down. The figures below are third-party projections, presented as a spread of views, not as targets this publication endorses.

On the cautious end, Gate’s model centers 2026 around an average near $236, with a projected low close to $130 and a high around $318, essentially expecting TAO to hold near current levels with wide swings. Coindataflow’s experimental forecast sits in a similar low band, with a 2026 high near $281. In the middle and higher, Changelly’s analysis points to a 2026 range of roughly $388 to $472 with an average near $402, while Cryptopolitan’s technical read frames a $134 to $570 band with an average around $475.

Coinpedia takes a more constructive technical view, arguing that if TAO clears resistance at $352 and $396 in the 1st half of the year, the path opens toward a $500 reclaim. Looking further out, long-term projections from several of these firms cluster in a $900 to $3,000 range for 2030, premised on decentralized AI demand expanding and TAO holding its category lead.

The width of that spread, from a low near $130 to highs above $570 in the same year, is not a failure of analysis. It is an accurate reflection of how much hinges on whether subnet demand compounds, whether an ETF arrives, and whether the AI trade stays in favor. The halving sets the supply backdrop. These other forces decide the magnitude.

How the Bittensor halving compares with Bitcoin’s

The halving thesis borrows its emotional weight from Bitcoin, where four-year supply cuts have lined up with major bull runs. The comparison is useful, but it breaks down in ways that matter for the forecast. Bitcoin’s halving reduces the new supply paid to miners who secure a settlement network whose demand driver is, broadly, monetary: people want to hold Bitcoin as a store of value.

Bittensor’s halving reduces the new supply paid to miners and validators who produce and verify machine intelligence, and TAO’s demand driver is supposed to be usage of that intelligence through subnets. Those are different engines.

The practical consequence is that a Bittensor halving cannot lean on the same reflexive narrative. Bitcoin’s halvings work partly because a huge population of holders believes they work, which makes the belief partly self-fulfilling. TAO does not yet have that scale of conviction, and its price has shown it: the token fell after the December halving instead of rallying on it, because the AI-token market cared more about subnet performance and the broader risk environment than about a supply chart. The halving is real and structurally helpful, but anyone modeling TAO on a clean Bitcoin-style post-halving curve is importing an assumption the data has not yet earned.

There is also a proportionality difference. Bitcoin’s reduced issuance is a small fraction of its already-large circulating supply, so the supply effect is gradual while the narrative effect is immediate.

For TAO, the emission cut is proportionally larger against a much smaller circulating base, which should make the mechanical supply effect more potent over time, yet the narrative effect is weaker because fewer participants treat the halving as gospel. The net is a token where the fundamentals of the halving may matter more than they do for Bitcoin, while the storytelling matters less.

The deeper design point sits underneath all of this. Bittensor was built by Ala Shaabana and Jacob Steeves in 2019 around Yuma Consensus, the mechanism that scores and rewards useful machine-intelligence work. That design is what lets the network claim it pays for output instead of raw hardware uptime, and it is the foundation of the value-capture argument. The halving sharpens the supply side of that design, but it does not resolve whether the scoring turns into durable token demand, which remains the open question the price keeps asking.

What to watch through the rest of 2026

For readers tracking TAO instead of chasing headlines, a short list of signals will reveal which scenario is unfolding well before the price confirms it. The first is subnet revenue: the roughly $43 million reported for the first quarter is the number to watch for growth, because rising real revenue is the strongest evidence that the value-capture story is working instead of stalling. The Second is the moving-average band between $256 and $270; reclaiming and holding above it would be the first technical sign the bearish trend has turned.

The third is the ETF timeline, with a U.S. decision expected around August 2026. An approval, or even rising odds of one, would open the institutional corridor the bull case needs, while a denial or a delay removes a catalyst the market has started to anticipate.

The fourth is governance stability: after the April subnet exit that triggered a 25% drop, any repeat of concentration or governance trouble would confirm the fragility the bears emphasize and could undo months of recovery in days. The fifth is the health of the broader AI trade, since TAO has behaved as a high-beta proxy for AI sentiment, and a rotation out of AI tokens would pressure it regardless of its own progress.

Watched together, these five tell a more reliable story than any single price target. If subnet revenue climbs, the moving averages flip, and the ETF path advances, the supply setup from the halving finally has demand to work with, and the bull case gains real footing. If revenue stalls, governance wobbles, and the AI trade cools, the thin float will amplify the downside instead of cushioning it. The halving set the stage in December. These signals decide whether anyone shows up to use it.

Bull, base, and bear scenarios for TAO

The scenarios below combine the supply setup with the demand and institutional variables that actually drive the outcome. They are illustrative ranges built from the third-party forecasts above and current market structure, not guarantees.

Bull case

In the bull scenario, the halving thesis works as designed and demand shows up to meet the tightening float. Subnet revenue keeps climbing from the $43 million Q1 pace, dTAO routes emissions toward markets with real usage, and the value-capture question starts to resolve in TAO’s favor. A spot ETF decision lands favorably or looks likely, pulling regulated capital into a thin float where roughly 70% of supply is staked and out of reach. TAO reclaims the $256 to $270 moving-average band, breaks $352 and $396, and runs toward the $500 area that Coinpedia and others flag, with the more aggressive long-term models pointing higher into 2027 if the AI trade stays hot. This case depends on the AI narrative staying strong and the network avoiding another governance shock.

Base case

In the base scenario, the halving slowly does its quiet work but no single catalyst fires hard. Subnet activity grows unevenly, the ETF path advances but without a clean approval inside 2026, and the AI trade runs warm instead of euphoric. TAO spends the year chopping inside its broad trading channel, roughly between the $200 floor and the low-$400s, with the average landing near the $236 to $402 zone that the Gate and Changelly models bracket. The thin float keeps downside contained on dips, but the unproven value-capture story caps rallies. This is the “constructive but unconfirmed” outcome where the supply setup helps at the margin without overpowering a cautious market.

Bear case

In the bear scenario, the halving is revealed as a supply event the market already priced, and TAO behaves as AI-hype beta. The value-capture question stays unanswered, another subnet exit or governance dispute dents confidence the way April’s did, and the broader AI trade rotates out. TAO loses the $200 floor and slides toward the February low near $163 or lower, with the bearish low-end forecasts near $130 coming into view. In this case, the staking lockup offers little protection, because holders unwind positions when yield no longer offsets falling token value, and the thin float that amplifies rallies amplifies declines just as efficiently.

Frequently Asked Questions

When was the Bittensor halving and what changed?

The first Bittensor halving took place on Dec. 12, 2025. Daily TAO emissions were cut in half, from 7,200 tokens to 3,600. The network follows a Bitcoin-style design with a fixed 21 million supply cap, so issuance steps down over time. The supply effect is gradual, filtering into circulating supply over months instead of moving price on the halving date itself.

Does a halving guarantee TAO goes up?

No. A halving reduces the rate of new supply, which can support price if demand holds or grows, but it cannot lift a token on its own. TAO slid toward $200 in the months after the December halving before rebounding, which shows that reduced emissions do not override weak demand or a bearish trend. The halving loads the supply side, but demand has to do the rest.

Why is roughly 70% of TAO staked, and why does it matter?

Holders stake TAO to help secure the network through validators and delegators, and they earn an annual yield around 10% for doing so. Staked tokens are locked and not readily available to sell, which thins the liquid float. Combined with halved emissions, the high staking ratio is the core of the supply-shock argument, since it shrinks the genuinely sellable supply.

What is the biggest risk to the TAO forecast?

The biggest risk is that TAO is valued mostly on AI-narrative momentum instead of durable demand for its subnets. The subnet ecosystem generates revenue, but how much value flows back to the TAO token is unproven, and a high-profile subnet exit in April 2026 triggered a roughly 25% drop. If the AI trade cools or governance fragility resurfaces, the supply setup will not protect the price.

Could a spot TAO ETF change the picture?

Possibly. Grayscale’s Bittensor Trust is already live over the counter, Grayscale filed an S-1, and Bitwise has filed for a spot product, with a U.S. decision expected around August 2026. A favorable outcome would open a regulated channel for institutional capital into a thin float, which the bull case leans on. Approval and timing are not guaranteed, so it remains a catalyst to watch instead of a certainty.

Where do analysts think TAO could trade in 2026?

Third-party forecasts span a wide range. Cautious models such as Gate center near a $236 average with a low around $130, while higher views from Changelly and Cryptopolitan point to averages around $400 to $475 and Coinpedia flags a possible $500 reclaim if key resistance breaks. Long-term 2030 projections from several firms cluster between $900 and $3,000. The spread reflects genuine uncertainty about subnet demand, ETF flows, and the AI trade.

Disclaimer: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and price predictions are speculative estimates that may not occur. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Figures are accurate as of June 30, 2026, and will change.

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Bitcoin Price Rebounds as Trump Calls Off Iran Strikes and Hints at a Deal

Published

2 hours ago

2 August 2026

NewsAdmin

Bitcoin’s price is on the move today, prompted by the latest developments on the US-Iran war front, but this time in the opposite direction.

After it slipped to another multi-week low yesterday evening, the cryptocurrency has rebounded by approximately $1,500 and now sits at around $63,500. The reason for this is the major de-escalation announced by the POTUS hours ago.

US President Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, that although his country’s military remains “locked and loaded” to continue attacking Iran, they were asked by the Middle Eastern country and other nations in the region to pause the strikes for now.

He added that those countries are working on a new deal that would include the “immediate, complete and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.”

“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL. The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE.”

As mentioned above, BTC reacted immediately with a notable rebound. It had dipped to an 18-day low at $62,200 yesterday evening as the tension between the two had increased once again, with new planned strikes. In addition, there are other factors, such as ETF exodus and technical indicators, that suggested the cryptocurrency could face another leg down soon.

For now, though, the war developments appear to have the most significant impact on bitcoin’s price moves, and essentially every de-escalation brings back hope to the market. The actual impact is likely to be experienced on Monday morning, as it has happened numerous times in the past several weeks.

The post Bitcoin Price Rebounds as Trump Calls Off Iran Strikes and Hints at a Deal appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Strategy Posts $8.2B Q2 Loss as Coinbase Revenue Falls 19%

Published

2 hours ago

2 August 2026

NewsAdmin

Leading Bitcoin treasury company Strategy’s results for the second quarter show a loss of over $8 billion, while crypto exchange Coinbase reported a 14% quarterly revenue loss.

According to the two companies’ latest earnings reports released on Thursday, Strategy lost over $8.23 billion in its operations after recording an unrealized loss of $8.32 billion in the second quarter of 2026. The largest crypto exchange by volume in the U.S., Coinbase, also suffered a 19% annual revenue decline, while its trading volumes went down 24% to slightly above $145 billion.

Q2 2026 Bitcoin Price Cooldown Sees Strategy Draw Losses

Strategy grew its BTC holdings by 846 units within the three-month period ending June 30. In its report, the company’s chief executive, Phong Le, said it reduced its convertible debt to just under $7 billion and increased its U.S. dollar holdings and Bitcoin per share by 12% and 5%, respectively. The Bitcoin treasury had seen a $10 billion income in the second quarter of 2025, but Bitcoin’s dull price performance this year has supposedly caused a net loss of $8.22 billion.

“Our objective is for STRC to trade over time at $99 to $100. If STRC trades below $100, we intend to repurchase STRC shares in a regular and disciplined manner, scaling our repurchases according to market price and liquidity. These repurchases are an attractive use of capital that reduces our future preferred dividend requirements at a discount while allowing independent market demand to establish a healthy and sustainable market,” the CEO explained.

In the total revenue column for the quarter, Strategy announced it had a 6.9% increase in the last 12 months, jumping from $114.5 million in Q2 2025 to over $122 million in Q2 2026. The gross profits made by the company’s business reached $81.6 million, which it counted as a 69% gross margin compared to the previous year’s second quarter’s $78.7 million.

“In the midst of this phase of muted bitcoin sentiment and market skepticism, we continue to evolve our business model and establish Digital Credit as a new asset class. Our plan is to return STRC to health with stable demand, high liquidity, and low volatility trading near par. We believe this is the best way to create shareholder value over the long term,” executive chairman and founder Michael Saylor told reporters.

Coinbase Revenue Drops after Trading Slump, Prediction Market Thrives

Meanwhile, Coinbase’s first half of the year continues to yield lower-than-expected earnings following a continued loss trend in both quarters, but its prediction market sector has risen by more than $100% quarter-over-quarter. The exchange revealed its revenue had taken a 19% hit in the 12 months ending June 30, and its transaction revenue dropped 21%. As seen in the report on net losses, the trading company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $208 million, while it recorded over $300 million in losses after adjustments.

Coinbase’s fee collection from subscriptions and services slumped by 5% in the quarter but accounted for almost half of its net revenue in that period. Consumer transactional revenue also fell by 20% compared to Q1 2026, which the company attributed to a 24% decline in crypto spot trading volume. At the end of the quarter, the average amount of USDC held across Coinbase products hit a record high of $20 billion, accounting for more than 30% of all USDC in circulation.

The post Strategy Posts $8.2B Q2 Loss as Coinbase Revenue Falls 19% appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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FTX Case Advances as Polymarket Dispute and $35K Penalty Emerge

Published

7 hours ago

1 August 2026

NewsAdmin

Federal prosecutors are continuing to litigate the fallout from the collapse of FTX, as defense teams push back on what juries can hear and how certain market activities are regulated. In the Southern District of New York (SDNY), Michelle Bond—whose husband, former FTX executive Ryan Salame, is serving a 90-month sentence after pleading guilty in 2023—has asked the court to block references to that guilty plea in a campaign finance case.

At the same time, other SDNY-related crypto-adjacent legal fights are highlighting how prediction markets and event contracts can collide with insider-trading and commodity regulation arguments. Separate actions involving a former congressman’s Kalshi trades and a US soldier accused of making a large Polymarket bet underscore that courts may soon be forced to clarify both evidentiary rules and the legal classification of event contracts.

Key takeaways

Michelle Bond’s legal team asked SDNY to exclude evidence tied to Ryan Salame’s guilty plea, arguing it has little relevance to Bond’s alleged intent or knowledge.
In a separate CFTC case, former New York Rep. George Santos was ordered to pay $35,000 over trades on Kalshi’s event contracts, with the regulator citing misleading posts about his planned attendance at the 2026 State of the Union.
A US soldier accused of earning more than $400,000 on Polymarket event contracts is seeking dismissal, challenging whether the Commodity Exchange Act can clearly apply to event contracts as “swaps.”
Across these matters, the central pressure points are evidentiary fairness for defendants and regulatory clarity for prediction-market participants.

Bond seeks to bar Salame’s guilty plea in campaign finance fight

According to a Friday filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Michelle Bond’s attorneys asked the court to preclude the government from introducing evidence about Ryan Salame’s guilty plea or any “related plea materials” in her campaign finance case.

Bond faces charges over alleged unlawful campaign funding tied to her unsuccessful 2022 congressional run in New York. The prosecution’s theory, as described in the filing, is that contributions supporting Bond’s campaign were partially funded through FTX arrangements facilitated by Salame.

Salame pleaded guilty in 2023 and is currently serving a 90-month sentence connected to conduct arising from FTX’s 2022 collapse. In Bond’s motion, her lawyers argued that Salame’s plea—where he admitted to making political contributions in Bond’s name funded by transfers from accounts associated with an FTX-linked entity—should not be treated as evidence against Bond herself.

“The Court should preclude the government from introducing or referring to Mr. Salame’s guilty plea or any related plea materials, because their minimal probative value is substantially outweighed by the risk of unfair prejudice to Ms. Bond,” the filing states.

Bond’s team further said that the plea materials do not meaningfully bear on Bond’s state of mind. They characterized the plea as an admission of Salame’s own guilt, not proof of Bond’s knowledge or participation in the charged conduct, quoting from the motion: “[…] Mr. Salame’s plea materials lack any probative value as to Ms. Bond’s guilt, knowledge, or intent. Mr. Salame’s plea is an admission of his own guilt, not evidence of Ms. Bond’s state of mind or participation in any charged offense.”

How personal litigation could become part of the argument

Bond’s motion also requested that the court allow information connected to her “contemporaneous divorce and custody proceedings.” Her lawyers appear to be positioning that personal context to rebut the government’s characterization of Bond as an “ordinary ‘individual’ donor,” despite her and Salame having divorced before the alleged criminal conduct.

While the filing’s request reflects a broader strategy often used in criminal litigation—attempting to shape how jurors interpret the campaign contributions and the parties’ relationship—the court’s decision will determine what personal-history evidence, if any, is ultimately presented.

CFTC penalizes George Santos for Kalshi event-contract trading

Separate from the FTX-linked litigation, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued an order involving George Santos, a former member of the US House of Representatives who was expelled from Congress in 2023. The CFTC ordered Santos to pay $17,500 in a civil monetary penalty plus $17,570 in disgorgement from profits earned through prediction market trading on Kalshi.

According to the CFTC, the relevant trades were tied to event contracts betting on whether Santos would appear at the 2026 State of the Union in Washington, DC. The regulator said Santos posted on social media about his plans to attend or not attend the event, and that these posts contained “material misrepresentations and omissions.”

The CFTC added that after the posts, contract prices moved in a direction favorable to Santos’ positions, enabling him to earn over $17,500.

As part of the CFTC order, Santos is barred from trading on prediction market platforms for three years.

The case also sits in the shadow of Santos’ criminal proceedings. Earlier coverage notes Santos was sentenced to 87 months in prison in 2025 for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft, though he served only three months before his sentence was commuted by US President Donald Trump, as reflected in the article’s background.

Polymarket insider-trading allegations tested under “swap” debate

A more direct challenge to prediction-market regulation is underway in another SDNY matter. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US soldier accused of making more than $400,000 trading Polymarket event contracts, is attempting to dismiss the indictment.

As outlined in the background of the case, prosecutors allege that Van Dyke traded using nonpublic information connected to a military operation involving the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. The US Department of Justice alleges he used that alleged insider information to wager on whether Maduro would be removed from power, leading to criminal charges filed in April.

In a Friday SDNY filing, Van Dyke’s attorneys submitted a 51-page memorandum supporting a motion to dismiss. Among other arguments, they contend that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) is ambiguous in how it treats event contracts as “swaps,” which is relevant to three of the charges.

Van Dyke’s lawyers argue that the ambiguity affects basic fairness: if the “swap” definition is not clear across Congress, agencies, and courts, ordinary citizens may lack “fair notice” that their prediction-market wagers fall under the CEA.

“If Congress, executive branch agencies, and courts all find the ‘swap’ definition ambiguous, how can ordinary citizens have fair notice that prediction market wagers are covered by the CEA?” the filing asks.

The defense also contrasts with the position taken by the CFTC under Chair Michael Selig, which has argued it has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets by treating event contracts as “swaps.” The dismissal motion suggests that—at least for some counts—those jurisdictional assumptions may not survive if the law is too unclear.

Why these cases matter beyond one courtroom

Taken together, the filings point to two urgent fault lines for the crypto-adjacent prediction market space: what evidence courts allow juries to consider when guilt and intent are contested, and whether the regulatory framework—especially the CEA’s treatment of event contracts—offers enough clarity for enforcement.

As courts weigh motions like Bond’s request to exclude plea materials and Van Dyke’s bid to dismiss based on legal ambiguity, traders, builders, and public officials using event-contract platforms may want to watch how judges define relevance, prejudice, and “fair notice.” The next procedural rulings could signal how far prosecutors can stretch existing statutes—and how tightly defendants can force regulators to justify their classification theories.

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Crypto Hacks Drain $1.1B in First Half of 2026 Amid 212 Security Incidents

Published

8 hours ago

1 August 2026

NewsAdmin

The first half of 2026 was the most active six months for crypto exploits on record.

This is according to a new report from Blockaid, which shows hackers stole $1.1 billion across 212 incidents.

Crypto Hacks Top $1.1B in H1 2026

The Blockaid report found that four major incidents involving KelpDAO, Drift, Resolv, and CoW Swap made up roughly $707 million of the total losses.

KelpDAO suffered the largest loss, after hackers stole $292 million worth of crypto by faking a cross-chain message that siphoned off the protocol’s Ethereum reserves. Drift Protocol, a perpetuals exchange built on the Solana chain, also suffered a similarly huge hit, as it was exploited for $285 million within 12 minutes.

Blockaid linked both cases to TraderTraitor, a state-sponsored North Korean subset of the larger Lazarus Group. Humanity Protocol’s $32 million loss was also connected to the same attacker cluster, bringing DPRK-linked losses to $609 million, which is about 55% of all funds stolen during the period.

The pace of attacks also increased through the year, with monthly incidents going from 18 in January to 57 in June. April proved to be the most painful month, as the KelpDAO and Drift Protocol hacks wiped out a combined $577 million to push total losses in that month to $635 million.

Privileged key misuse was the most costly attack type in the first half of 2026, with losses of approximately $790 million, or close to three-quarters of all funds stolen in the period, said Blockaid. Unbacked mint exploits came second in value, led by the $80 million Resolve breach. But the hacks at the code level caused the most casualties, accounting for nearly four out of five attacks by count.

Attack Vectors Change as New Threats Emerge

The report named AI agents as a new target after hackers in May used a prompt injection attack to fool Bankr’s AI agent into approving an unauthorized transaction for about $216,000.

Cross-chain bridges also took a major hit, with attackers breaching the verification systems of KelpDAO and Taiko through forged proofs and attestations accepted by the destination chains.

In addition, security teams faced newer attack methods in 2026, with Blockaid identifying four incidents involving EIP-7702 wallet delegation attacks, where a wallet can hand control to a smart contract. Legacy smart contracts also continue to be a common vulnerability, with data showing around five cases in May and June, including two involving Aztec Connect and one targeting Raydium’s AMM V3.

Recent incidents outside the report period showed the same pressure on crypto infrastructure. For instance, on July 23, AFX Trade, BSquaredNetwork, and Verus were hit in separate attacks on the same day that collectively caused more than $35 million in losses. Recall that Verus had already suffered another exploit about two months earlier, and Blockaid linked both incidents to the same bridge contract and bug class.

Recovery results varied depending on the type of attack. Per the report, code-related incidents sometimes allowed teams to freeze funds or negotiate returns, while attacks involving stolen keys usually ended with the money moving through mixers or cross-chain routes.

The post Crypto Hacks Drain $1.1B in First Half of 2026 Amid 212 Security Incidents appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Michael Saylor and team maintain 12% dividend for STRC

Published

8 hours ago

1 August 2026

NewsAdmin

Strategy signals another bitcoin buy as company needs just 2% annual BTC growth to cover dividends

Holders of Strategy’s (MSTR) high-yielding preferred stock STRC will not see a dividend increase in August.

Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Strategy is maintaining the current 12% dividend on the shares.

STRC investors may have been expecting as much as a 50-basis-point hike in the dividend as Strategy has customarily raised the payout anytime the stock traded sizably below its par value ($100) for the month.

As recently as July 1, Strategy had lifted the dividend 50 basis points following June’s plunge in STRC to as low as $71.

While that hike — along with Strategy’s sale of some bitcoin to fund dividends, and a bit of stabilization in the price of bitcoin — helped STRC bounce in July to the current $89.46, that level is still significantly below par.

CEO Phong Le yesterday said Strategy’s Corporate Objective is for STRC to trade at $99-$100 over time.

Nevertheless, the company is under no obligation to raise the dividend and chose not to do so this month.

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Key On-Chain Legal Updates This Week

Published

8 hours ago

1 August 2026

NewsAdmin

A Friday filing in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) seeks to limit what prosecutors can use in the campaign-finance case involving Michelle Bond, the wife of former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame.

Bond’s attorneys argued that evidence tied to Salame’s 2023 guilty plea—while relevant to his own conduct—should not be admitted against her because it carries a risk of unfair prejudice and, in their view, offers little direct proof of Bond’s knowledge or intent. The motion also asks the court to factor in details from Bond’s contemporaneous divorce and custody proceedings.

Key takeaways

Michelle Bond wants the court to exclude evidence and “related plea materials” tied to Ryan Salame’s guilty plea, arguing they are not probative of her state of mind.
Bond’s campaign-finance charges stem from allegations that contributions to her 2022 congressional bid were influenced by FTX-linked activity facilitated by Salame.
The SDNY motion also requests inclusion of information about Bond’s divorce and custody proceedings, contending she was not an “ordinary” donor.
Separately, the CFTC ordered former congressman George Santos to pay $35,000 in total—$17,500 in penalty and $17,570 in disgorgement—over trades connected to Kalshi prediction market event contracts.
A soldier accused of making more than $400,000 on Polymarket event contracts linked to a military operation asked the SDNY court to dismiss charges, citing ambiguity in how “swap” definitions apply to event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Bond asks SDNY to keep Salame’s guilty plea out of her case

Bond faces campaign finance charges tied to her unsuccessful 2022 congressional run in New York. According to the criminal allegations, contributions to her campaign were partly funded through FTX-related channels that were facilitated by her husband, Ryan Salame.

In the latest SDNY filing, Bond’s legal team asked the court to preclude prosecutors from introducing Salame’s guilty plea and related plea materials. The filing points to the core logic of the request: Bond is not being tried for Salame’s admissions, and the defense claims the government’s use of those materials would not meaningfully establish Bond’s guilt, knowledge, or intent.

Bond’s attorneys argued that Salame’s plea is an admission of his own conduct, not evidence about Bond’s mental state or participation in the charged offense. They said the materials’ probative value is substantially outweighed by the risk of unfair prejudice to Bond.

Prosecutors are expected to weigh heavily on the narrative connecting alleged campaign funding to the conduct of individuals tied to FTX’s collapse. Bond’s motion, however, signals an effort to narrow what jurors are allowed to consider—particularly evidence that may influence them emotionally or circumstantially rather than strictly proving the elements of the charges against her.

Why the defense is raising divorce and custody proceedings

Alongside the evidentiary dispute over Salame’s plea, Bond’s filing also requested that the court include information related to Bond’s divorce and custody proceedings that were underway around the same time as the alleged crime.

Bond’s lawyers’ position is that the circumstances of her family life affect how her campaign-related donor status should be viewed. The filing argues that Bond should not be treated as an ordinary individual donor solely because she is facing personal charges in connection with her political bid, even if she and Salame were not married at the time of the alleged conduct.

Whether and to what extent these family-law details will be admissible is likely to be a key procedural issue. It can shape the tone and framing of the case—especially if the government seeks to portray the campaign finances as closely connected to Salame’s network rather than to Bond’s independent circumstances.

George Santos ordered to pay over Kalshi predictions market trading

In a separate development involving prediction markets, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered former New York representative George Santos—who was expelled from Congress in 2023—to pay a total of $35,000. The figure breaks down into a $17,500 civil monetary penalty and $17,570 in disgorgement of profits.

The regulator said the action was tied to Santos trading on event contracts on Kalshi connected to whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union address in Washington, DC. The CFTC stated that Santos made social media posts about his plans to attend or not attend the event and that those posts contained “material misrepresentations and omissions.”

According to the CFTC, after the posts, the contract prices moved in a way that became favorable to Santos’ positions and allowed him to make more than $17,500.

As part of the same order, Santos was barred from trading on prediction market platforms for three years. The order also comes against the backdrop of criminal proceedings: Santos was sentenced to 87 months in prison for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in 2025, but served only three months before his sentence was commuted by U.S. President Donald Trump, as noted in earlier reporting.

Polymarket insider-trading allegations head toward dismissal arguments

Another SDNY filing, this time from the defense of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, challenges the legal foundation of allegations that he profited from Polymarket event contracts using nonpublic information.

The U.S. Justice Department says Van Dyke was involved in a military operation connected to the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, and prosecutors allege he later used insider information to bet whether Maduro would be removed from power—leading to criminal charges announced in April. The defense filing argues Van Dyke is facing accusations involving more than $400,000 in alleged profits from Polymarket event contracts.

Van Dyke’s attorneys filed a 51-page memo supporting a motion to dismiss the indictment based on multiple legal theories. One focus is the Commodity Exchange Act’s treatment of event contracts as “swaps,” which the defense characterizes as ambiguous.

While the CFTC under Chair Michael Selig has asserted that the agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets by treating event contracts as “swaps,” Van Dyke’s lawyers say the uncertainty itself is enough to dismiss at least some charges. In the filing, they argue that if lawmakers, executive agencies, and courts consider the “swap” definition ambiguous, then ordinary citizens cannot reasonably have fair notice that prediction market wagers fall under the CEA.

The case is expected to proceed on a timeline that could lead to trial in late 2026 or early 2027, based on a schedule submitted in June, and Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

The defense’s arguments also extend beyond Van Dyke’s personal exposure. The filing suggests the ruling could matter for lawmakers and government officials who have used prediction markets in connection with political events or public statements. Earlier coverage referenced by the filing indicates that Trump’s teleprompter operator reportedly placed more than $100,000 in bets on Kalshi event contracts tied to presidential speeches, underscoring how prediction markets can draw interest from political circles.

Across these cases, courts are being asked to decide what evidence is fair game, what definitions govern crypto-adjacent instruments, and how much clarity regulators must provide before individuals can be held criminally liable—issues that could determine how future crypto and prediction-market enforcement plays out.

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What Happened In Crypto Legal News This Week

Published

8 hours ago

1 August 2026

NewsAdmin

What Happened In Crypto Legal News This Week

Wife of former FTX executive seeks to preclude her husband’s guilty plea

In a Friday filing with the US District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) over campaign finance charges, Michelle Bond’s legal team asked the court to consider precluding evidence related to former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame, her husband who is currently serving a 90-month sentence after he pleaded guilty in 2023.

Bond faces campaign finance charges alleging that her unsuccessful 2022 congressional run in New York was partially funded by contributions from FTX facilitated by Salame. As part of the filings this week, Bond asked the court to exclude evidence of her husband’s guilty plea and “related plea materials,” in which the former executive admitted to making “political contributions in [his] name that were funded by transfers from the bank accounts” of an entity tied to FTX.

Bond’s lawyers added:

“[…] Mr. Salame’s plea materials lack any probative value as to Ms. Bond’s guilt, knowledge, or intent. Mr. Salame’s plea is an admission of his own guilt, not evidence of Ms. Bond’s state of mind or participation in any charged offense.”

The motion also requested the court include information related to Bond’s “contemporaneous divorce and custody proceedings,” arguing that though she and Salame were not married at the time of the alleged crime, the former FTX executive was not an “ordinary ‘individual’ donor” contributing to her campaign.

The criminal case is one of the latest involving individuals tied to the defunct crypto exchange following its 2022 collapse. Salame, former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison were all sentenced to prison for their role in the misuse of customer funds and related charges.

Former congressman ordered to pay $35,000 over Kalshi bet

George Santos, a former New York House representative who was expelled from Congress in 2023, was ordered to pay a $17,500 civil monetary penalty and $17,570 in disgorgement from profits earned over bets placed on prediction markets platform Kalshi. The order from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stemmed from Santos trading on event contracts betting on his appearance at the 2026 State of the Union address in Washington, DC.

“While buying and selling positions in this market, Santos posted on social media about his plans to attend or not attend the SOTU,” said the CFTC. “In his social media posts, Santos made a series of material misrepresentations and omissions about whether he would attend the SOTU. After these posts, the SOTU contract prices moved in a direction that was favorable to Santos’ positions which allowed him to make over $17,500.”

February X post about his State of the Union attendance. Source: George Santos

Santos is barred from trading on prediction market platforms for three years as part of the order. He was also previously sentenced to 87 months in prison for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft in 2025, but served only three months before his sentence was commuted by US President Donald Trump.

US solider accused of making $400,000 Polymarket bet seeks to dismiss charges

Gannon Ken Van Dyke is a US soldier who faces charges for allegedly making more than $400,000 on Polymarket event contracts using nonpublic information tied to a military operation involving the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. He was involved in the operation removing Maduro, according to the US Justice Department, and allegedly used insider information to bet whether the Venezuelan president would be removed from power, leading to criminal charges in April.

In a Friday SDNY filing, Van Dyke’s legal team filed a 51-page memo in support of a motion to dismiss the indictment based on different legal theories, including that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) at the center of three of the charges was “ambiguous” in treating event contracts as “swaps.”

Although the CFTC under Chair Michael Selig has claimed that the agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets on the basis that event contracts are treated as “swaps,” Van Dyke’s lawyers said the lack of clarity was sufficient to dismiss some of the charges.

The case is expected to have significant implications for lawmakers and government officials using prediction markets. Trump’s teleprompter operator reportedly made more than $100,000 using Kalshi event contracts related to the president’s speeches.

Based on a schedule filed in June, Van Dyke is potentially looking at a trial beginning in late 2026 or early 2027. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

Magazine: Here’s why the CLARITY Act’s ethics deal may be so hard to reach

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Goldman traders are on pace for a record year. A close-up look at how they’re doing it

Published

9 hours ago

1 August 2026

NewsAdmin

Goldman traders are on pace for a record year. A close-up look at how they're doing it

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Bitcoin cold-wallet attack spreads to 4,500 addresses as losses near $89 million

Published

10 hours ago

1 August 2026

NewsAdmin

Russia-linked Grinex exchange halts operations after $13 million ‘state-backed’ hack

The attacker working through Coldcard-generated keys is now emptying wallets worth a few thousand dollars each.

Galaxy Research flagged a third wave of sweeps early Sunday, roughly 208 bitcoin drained from 1,912 addresses between Friday midday and Saturday morning UTC.

That is just over a tenth of a bitcoin per victim. The July 30 opening wave averaged close to a full coin, 1,083 bitcoin from 1,196 addresses in 41 minutes.

Observed losses across all three waves now total 1,367 bitcoin, nearly $89 million, from 4,585 addresses.

Wave three sends each victim’s coins to its own destination rather than the handful of shared collector addresses that made the first two easy to map, and parks them in pay-to-witness-script-hash outputs, a format that can carry multisignature or timelock conditions, instead of the plain single-key outputs used before.

It batched an average of six victims into each sweep where wave one took exactly one at a time, and it scanned only the default derivation path, the standard branch of the key tree a wallet checks first, instead of testing several branches per seed.

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XRP Price Dips to ‘Battlefield’ Zone, but Analysts See Major Reversal Opportunity

Published

10 hours ago

1 August 2026

NewsAdmin

Perhaps due to the quickly re-escalating tension in the Middle East, the cryptocurrency market has posted fresh losses over the past few hours, with BTC dropping to $62,000 after failing to reclaim the $63,000 support during the day.

XRP was not spared, as it just slipped below $1.05. The asset was rejected at $1.20 during the mid-July rally after the favorable US inflation data for June, and eventually lost the coveted $1.10 support. Now, it fights for the last line of defense before the bulls would have to defend the $1.00 zone.

Popular analyst EGRAG CRYPTO outlined the significance of the $1.05 level, calling it the ‘battlefield’ region. Although he noted earlier today that the cross-border token had managed to maintain that level, he acknowledged the predominantly bearish structure of lower highs on the 4-hour chart.

The short-term path of recovery would be a successful defense of $1.05 before XRP can bounce above $1.083 and eventually reclaim the $1.10 level, which now acts as resistance.

EGRAG laid out an even more promising road ahead for the asset if it manages to continue its recovery, with the “major price target” set at $1.30.

However, a decisive breakdown below $1.05 would essentially mean that XRP will head toward the notable liquidity zone at around $1.00, he warned.

Mikybull Crypto also believes XRP has the strength to stage a surprising comeback. The analyst claimed that the asset’s bullish reversal run is currently loading despite the negative outlook.

His long-term chart compares the current market structure with the one from two years ago when XRP was highly compressed at around $0.60. Once it broke out the upper boundary, though, it rocketed to a fresh all-time high within less than a year.

“Before the last run, I screamed for you to buy at a crazy discount. The opportunity is presenting again,” he said now.

History is not on XRP’s side at the moment, though, as August has been quite a painful month for the asset. As reported earlier today, the cross-border token was deep in the red in all four previous editions.

The post XRP Price Dips to ‘Battlefield’ Zone, but Analysts See Major Reversal Opportunity appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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