Analysts at Bernstein are bullish on stablecoin issuer Circle, arguing that a new growth cycle for its USDC stablecoin could provide a significant boost for the company over the next 12 months.

In a research note published Monday, Bernstein said USDC (USDC) is showing signs of what it called “digital dollar reflation” after its supply increased by roughly $2 billion in seven days, reversing a six-month stretch of stagnant or declining growth. The firm maintained an Outperform rating on Circle (CRCL) and a $140 price target, implying roughly 60% upside from current levels. Circle shares have risen roughly 40% over the past month.

Bernstein said the next phase of stablecoin growth could be driven by several factors, including renewed momentum in crypto markets, greater regulatory clarity in the United States, tokenized capital markets and growing adoption of stablecoins for payments. The analysts also pointed to early signs of stablecoin use in payments made by artificial intelligence agents.

Although USDC remains the second-largest dollar-backed stablecoin by market capitalization, well behind Tether’s USDt (USDT), it has gained significant ground in transaction activity. Bernstein said USDC’s share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose from roughly 40% in 2025 to more than 60% so far in 2026, overtaking USDt by that measure.

Stablecoin transaction volume has grown significantly this year. Source: Bernstein

Related: MiCA is coming for DeFi vaults, but regulation will be difficult

Circle’s volatile path since its IPO

Circle shares have experienced significant swings since the company went public in June 2025. The stablecoin issuer priced its shares at $31 and raised roughly $1.1 billion in its initial public offering. After surging in the months following its debut, the stock had fallen back toward its IPO price by November 2025 as a broader crypto market downturn weighed on publicly traded companies with exposure to the sector.

In its most recent quarter, Circle reported $701 million in revenue and $48 million in net income, both up from a year earlier.

Related: Western Union brings stablecoin remittances to Visa network with Stablecard

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Hotter, drier, and windier conditions

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says she does not view Bitcoin’s recent surge toward the $79,000 area as proof the bear market is finished. In an interview on Trade Secrets, Chen argued that downside could still be ahead and indicated she is prepared to keep a large portion of her own portfolio in stablecoins while waiting for a better entry level.

Chen said she would personally look to buy Bitcoin again if the market drops by more than $25,000 from current levels—pinning that “buyback” zone around $50,000. She also cautioned that she does not have special insight into Bitcoin’s next move, while acknowledging that traders can still debate where the year ends.

Key takeaways

• Bitget CEO Gracy Chen is keeping a significant share of her portfolio in stablecoins while monitoring for a possible deeper pullback.
• Chen’s personal Bitcoin re-entry level centers around roughly $50,000, rather than assuming the rally marks a lasting floor.
• She does not expect her timing to be perfect and explicitly avoids committing to a specific month for a $50,000 move.
• Chen says most of her portfolio is Bitcoin and the S&P 500, with small allocations to assets like Ethereum and Solana.
• On altcoins, she appears selective—citing Hyperliquid as the one she is currently more bullish on, conditional on regulatory access in the US.

Why Chen isn’t treating $79,000 as the end of the decline

Bitcoin’s climb over the past week has pushed it to levels near $79,000, but Chen’s reaction is cautious. She framed the rally as something that could still be followed by volatility and a meaningful retracement, rather than an automatic signal that the long downturn is over.

In the same interview, Chen described her approach as pragmatic: she is not trying to predict the exact path of an asset known for sharp reversals. Instead, she is watching for a specific kind of opportunity—a pullback she believes could be large enough to justify adding back exposure.

Chen told Trade Secrets that while she is keeping her expectations open, her personal “sort of price” target for a buyback sits around $50,000. She put it in practical terms, saying she could act if Bitcoin falls by more than $25,000 from where it is now.

Importantly, Chen also avoided presenting her view as a broader forecast. She said she lacks any proprietary edge in timing Bitcoin’s unpredictable market and compared herself to an exchange operator rather than an analyst “good at analyzing Bitcoin price,” emphasizing her role in providing a trading venue.

Other traders still see more downside before the next leg

Chen’s caution is not an outlier in crypto circles. The interview surfaced multiple perspectives suggesting that even with Bitcoin up strongly over a short period, deeper drops remain plausible.

Earlier this month, Transform Ventures founder Michael Terpin told Trade Secrets that “we still have more pain to go,” arguing Bitcoin could eventually fall far from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. Terpin’s scenario—described in the interview as a potential 66% decline—would imply a move into the “40s.”

Before this week’s rally, veteran trader Peter Brandt similarly pointed to a potential “bottom on Oct. 4,” according to prior coverage cited within the interview.

While these figures differ in magnitude and timing, the common theme is that traders are separating “short-term strength” from “cycle confirmation.” Chen’s stablecoin posture reflects the same idea: wait for price to reach a level that better matches her risk-reward, even if momentum has already improved.

Chen’s Bitcoin plan: no exact date, but an expectation for volatility

Although Chen anchored a buyback area around $50,000, she was careful not to attach a firm timetable to it. She said her own prediction is not meant to be treated as a precise catalyst or schedule.

Chen explained that she does not have a specific month in mind, offering only a range of possibilities—suggesting “later this year might be a good estimate,” but also saying “maybe next year” is possible.

Her stance matters for readers because it highlights a difference between conviction and commitment. Chen’s view is directionally cautious, but she is not claiming certainty on timing—an approach that aligns with how many traders manage uncertainty in a market that can swing quickly.

Portfolio preferences: Bitcoin focus, minimal altcoin exposure

Beyond price levels, Chen’s comments also shed light on how she approaches risk across the broader market. She said that most of her portfolio is split between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, while noting she does not actively trade much because of her responsibilities running a major exchange.

Chen estimated that less than 1% of her portfolio is allocated to Ethereum and Solana combined, reinforcing the idea that her current exposure is relatively concentrated rather than broadly diversified across many major tokens.

She is also openly selective about altcoins. While running a platform that lists many different assets, Chen said she is “not particularly” enamored with altcoins and singled out one asset as currently more compelling: Hyperliquid. She said she is bullish on Hyperliquid (and referenced the HYPE token’s strong move) in the context of a more crypto-friendly regulatory posture toward the network.

The interview further connected Chen’s enthusiasm to a US regulatory development. She stated that if the CFTC finds a way to allow Hyperliquid to enter the US market properly, it would be a major factor in her optimism. The article notes that President Trump indicated this week that CFTC chair Mike Selig was working on allowing Hyperliquid to officially trade in regulated US markets.

Chen also voiced skepticism toward memecoins, saying she believes the market will not repeat a “memecoin season” like in prior cycles because too many retail investors have been burned. Her remark included the idea that “retails are not stupid,” framing her view as a response to investor experience rather than a claim about any one token’s fundamentals.

On the $1M narrative and Bitcoin’s diminishing cycle returns

In addition to short-term trade levels, Chen addressed a longer-running topic on Trade Secrets: whether Bitcoin can realistically reach $1 million by 2030. She said she does not believe it will happen.

Chen referenced Bitcoin’s shrinking returns across its four-year cycles as a central reason. According to her explanation, the ratio between the all-time high in one cycle and the all-time low in that same cycle has been decreasing over time—implying that future cycle rebounds may not scale in the same way as earlier periods.

Her perspective comes alongside broader debate mentioned in the interview, including bullish calls from figures such as Brian Armstrong and Cathie Wood, but Chen’s argument is anchored in a repeated pattern she believes has emerged from past cycles.

For readers, the main takeaway is that even as Bitcoin regains momentum, market participants are still split between “cycle bottom confirmed” and “rally before deeper retracement.” Watch whether Bitcoin can hold above key levels that traders treat as near-term support; just as importantly, pay attention to whether exchanges and regulated access narratives—such as those involving Hyperliquid—continue to shape where liquidity flows across the ecosystem.

Coinbase has expanded its experiment with tokenized equities by launching tokenized US stocks on Base, bringing additional real-world asset options into Ethereum-compatible DeFi. The rollout also includes an integration with Chainlink Data Feeds designed to supply ongoing price data so decentralized applications can value and use the tokens reliably.

As tokenized stocks continue to attract liquidity and new holders, the Coinbase–Base move underscores a growing push to make regulated, share-backed assets more usable onchain—whether for lending, trading, or structured products.

Key takeaways

• Coinbase’s tokenized US stocks started trading on Base, with Chainlink Data Feeds providing continuous pricing for DeFi integrations.
• The feeds are designed to reflect underlying stock prices while applying a Coinbase multiplier that accounts for dividends and corporate actions.
• Tokens are issued as B20 tokens on Base and are available to non-US users in eligible jurisdictions.
• Each B20 token represents a claim on an underlying share held through a regulated structure involving Alpaca under Abu Dhabi Global Market supervision.
• RWA.xyz data shows tokenized stocks at roughly $2.48 billion in total value, with monthly transfer volume reaching $27.28 billion and holder count above 2.1 million.

Chainlink Data Feeds power onchain pricing for tokenized equities

The tokenized stocks won’t be useful to most DeFi protocols unless they can be priced consistently and updated frequently. That’s the purpose of Chainlink’s Data Feeds for Coinbase tokenized equity products, which the project states will deliver continuous valuation data for the assets.

Chainlink’s documentation describes how the feeds value each token based on the underlying stock price plus a Coinbase-supplied multiplier intended to account for dividends and other corporate actions. The goal is to help DeFi platforms incorporate these assets into critical functions such as collateral valuation, trading, and automated product logic.

Chainlink Data Feeds are intended to cover major equities including Nvidia, Apple, Meta, and Alphabet. With that price feed layer in place, DeFi applications can more directly treat tokenized stocks as composable assets rather than relying on bespoke pricing approaches for each listing.

How Coinbase’s tokenized stocks are structured on Base

Base says the tokenized stocks are issued as B20 tokens on its network. The tokens are designed for broader accessibility: Base indicates they are available to non-US users in eligible jurisdictions rather than serving as a general product for every market.

Each token represents a direct claim on an underlying share that Base says is held through a regulated broker and custodian relationship. Specifically, the underlying shares are managed via a structure involving Alpaca under supervision overseen by the Abu Dhabi Global Market. Base also notes that users can hold the B20 tokens in self-custody wallets and trade them around the clock.

This matters for DeFi because it shifts tokenized equities from a “closed” issuance model toward an actively tradable onchain representation—something that can support continuous market access and integration with decentralized liquidity venues.

DeFi utility: collateral, trading, and structured use cases

Base positioned the launch around real DeFi integrations, highlighting ways tokenized stocks can be plugged into existing infrastructure. The platform points to lending markets where tokenized shares can serve as collateral, as well as decentralized exchanges where tokenized Apple shares, for example, could be supplied for trading or liquidity strategies.

In practice, this type of integration depends on two things working together: the token’s onchain transfer and custody model, and a reliable pricing feed. The Chainlink Data Feeds component is the technical bridge that allows lending platforms to assess collateral value and helps exchanges manage the token’s market-facing price inputs.

Base also indicated additional Coinbase tokenized stocks are expected to launch on Base in the coming weeks. For users and builders, the key watch item will be whether liquidity deepens as new tickers are added and whether DeFi protocols expand their supported collateral or routing logic beyond the initial listings.

Tokenized equities keep expanding, even as DeFi matures

The Base rollout arrives during continued growth in the tokenized stock sector. According to RWA.xyz data, tokenized stocks have reached about $2.48 billion in total value, up 5.2% over the past 30 days. The same dataset shows monthly transfer volume of $27.28 billion and a holder count surpassing 2.1 million.

Those figures suggest that tokenized equities are not just a niche issuance story—they are accumulating participants and circulation. Yet the practical value of the market is increasingly tied to integration depth: whether tokens can be used as collateral in major lending venues, accessed through decentralized trading, and reliably priced via oracle infrastructure.

The Coinbase and Base launch, backed by Chainlink pricing feeds, targets that integration gap directly. It also signals that the competition for RWA liquidity isn’t only about issuing tokenized shares—it’s about making them operationally compatible with DeFi’s core tooling.

What to monitor next

Readers should watch for how quickly new tokenized stocks roll out on Base, whether major DeFi protocols expand collateral support beyond initial assets, and how liquidity and holder growth respond as more tokenized equities become compatible with onchain pricing and lending workflows.

The U.S. Treasury Department has launched Operation Economic Outcast to target Iran’s international financial links, including cryptocurrency activity that American officials say supports sanctions evasion and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Operation Economic Outcast targets Iran’s financial links

The U.S. Treasury Department said President Donald Trump directed officials to begin Operation Economic Outcast as Washington seeks to cut Iran off from financial networks outside the country.

Under the campaign, Treasury plans to pursue people, companies, and intermediaries that it says help Iran sell oil, move money, avoid existing restrictions, or finance groups designated by the United States. Officials said they had already mapped facilitators, financial channels, and other networks used by Tehran.

“Today, in that same spirit, we are launching an economic onslaught against Iran’s financial connections around the globe,” Treasury said in its announcement.

The department presented Iran with two possible outcomes: continued isolation or a route back into the international economy. Reintegration, according to Treasury, would require the Iranian government to change conduct that Washington regards as a threat to the United States and its partners.

For foreign companies, Operation Economic Outcast also carries a warning about maintaining commercial ties with Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said businesses and governments that work with the United States could benefit from that relationship, while parties that remain connected to Tehran could face similar isolation.

“Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.”

The campaign follows his earlier declaration of an “Economic D-Day” against Iran, which he described as the financial endgame of the U.S. campaign. Operation Economic Outcast expands that approach beyond Iran’s domestic institutions by focusing on overseas companies, payment channels and facilitators accused of keeping its economy connected to global markets.

US Treasury puts Iran’s crypto sector under scrutiny

Digital assets form a named part of the campaign because the Treasury says Iranian officials and connected groups increasingly use cryptocurrency to conduct transactions outside traditional banks.

According to the department, Iran has turned to crypto for sanctions evasion and for payments linked to the IRGC and government insiders. Treasury did not identify specific wallets, exchanges or transaction amounts in the campaign announcement, but it said the Office of Foreign Assets Control has authority to sanction people operating in the crypto sector of Iran’s economy, regardless of their location.

A person does not become sanctioned solely because the Treasury has announced the campaign. OFAC would still have to designate the person or entity under the relevant U.S. authority, after which any property under U.S. jurisdiction would generally be blocked.

American individuals and companies are generally prohibited from providing funds, services, or other economic benefits to designated parties. OFAC’s rules can also cover entities owned at least 50% by one or more blocked persons, even when the subsidiary or affiliated company does not appear separately on a sanctions list.

For exchanges, custodians, stablecoin issuers and payment providers, a new designation may require updates to wallet-screening systems and customer controls. Non-U.S. companies may also face sanctions exposure when they knowingly facilitate certain dealings involving blocked Iranian parties.

Other industries named by the Treasury include technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. The department said Iran has used international networks in these sectors to sell oil, receive payments, and obtain goods despite U.S. restrictions.

Earlier actions froze Iran-linked crypto funds

Operation Economic Outcast follows several U.S. actions against Iran-linked exchanges, wallets, and companies during 2026.

On Aug. 7, OFAC sanctioned Shelbit, Aban Tether, and Iranian national Siavash Kayvanpour after alleging that they helped move funds connected to sanctioned parties. As crypto.news reported earlier, the Treasury said IRGC-linked addresses sent more than $1 million in cryptocurrency to Shelbit, while wallets connected to the exchange allegedly transferred more than $2 million to IRGC-controlled addresses.

Treasury also alleged that Kayvanpour-linked wallets sent more than $2 million to Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchange. Shelbit’s former management denied knowingly participating in sanctions evasion, terrorism financing or money laundering and said the company stopped accepting new business in December 2025.

OFAC separately accused Aban Tether of processing funds involving Nobitex, Wallex, Bitpin, and Ramzinex. The four Iranian exchanges had been sanctioned in June after U.S. officials alleged that they helped restricted entities use the digital asset market.

In July, U.S. authorities froze $131 million in USDT held across four Tron wallets linked by the Treasury to Iran’s central bank. Treasury confirmed the freeze but did not publicly explain how the funds had been obtained or what transactions the holders intended to conduct.

An earlier April action resulted in approximately $344 million in USDT being frozen across two Tron addresses that American authorities linked to Iranian networks. Tether enforced the restriction through controls built into the stablecoin, leaving the funds immovable without altering the Tron blockchain.

Centralized stablecoins give issuers a direct way to freeze assets held in named addresses. Bitcoin does not contain the same issuer-controlled function, so blocking BTC generally requires control over private keys, cooperation from a custodian, or an exchange account subject to legal restrictions.

Treasury’s actions have also covered alleged Bitcoin use outside Iran’s exchange sector. On July 29, OFAC sanctioned two insurers after accusing HormuzSafe Marine Services Authority of accepting Bitcoin and other digital assets to avoid restrictions and generate revenue for the IRGC.

The public designation did not include wallet addresses, transaction hashes, or payment totals supporting the allegation. It also did not announce a seizure, criminal charge, or court ruling against customers who may have used the company.

Bitcoin holds near $79,000 after testing $80,000

Bitcoin showed little immediate reaction to the Treasury campaign, trading around $79,000 after reaching an intraday high near $80,000. The level remains a psychological barrier after the cryptocurrency’s recovery from prices below $65,000 earlier in August.

Before the Treasury announcement, BTC had come under pressure as Trump escalated a trade dispute with Canada. The president threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles, auto parts and steel beginning Jan. 1, 2027, while Canada said it would respond with tariffs on U.S. goods.

Currency markets reacted more clearly to the two policy developments. Reuters reported that the U.S. dollar index rose 0.17% to 98.99 after the Iran measures and Canadian tariff announcement, while the Canadian dollar fell 0.61% against its U.S. counterpart. Bitcoin later recovered to approximately $78,993, up about 2.1% during the session.

Strategy, Michael Saylor’s BTC holding company, has been under a lot of pressure, with shares plummeting 73% since July of last year.

However, more importantly, one of Strategy’s dividend instruments, STRC, which pays twice-monthly dividends on $100/share of par value, fell from parity on May 15 and has never returned.

That’s almost 100 days without being able to bring the preferred shares back to parity — and it’s a problem.

Trying to dig itself out of a hole

Despite Saylor, Strategy’s founder and executive chairman, making vague promises that no BTC would be sold (which he later clarified was in relation to his personal stash, not the BTC owned by Strategy), the company has sold almost 7,000 BTC worth nearly half a billion US dollars since June.

These sales have been used to prop up Strategy’s dollar reserves so they can ensure dividends to its preferred share holders.

Read more: Strive bought STRC instead of holding ‘idle cash,’ lost over $4M

Unfortunately, these sales of BTC and repurchases of STRC, while effectively raising STRC from the doldrums of $75/share that it briefly fell to in June, haven’t been enough to actually take STRC back to $100/share.

Phong Le and Saylor, both assured investors that Strategy had the means and intention to do whatever it took to bring STRC to parity during the second quarter earnings call.

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It appears the C-suite made promises it can’t keep.

Despite supposedly having the means, STRC remains 5% below parity three weeks after the C-suite made promises it seemingly can’t keep.

Saylor non-stop posting cringe AI nonsense

Since the awkward earnings call and investors questioning executive’s commitment to Strategy’s share price, Saylor has been non-stop posting and retweeting strange and absurd AI videos.

These include one where he’s singing about Strategy using leverage to purchase BTC, to numerous clips where he appears to be in random Japanese locales, speaking Japanese and talking about the importance of BTC.

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Read more: No amount of cash can fix STRC’s trust problem

None of it makes sense, none of it explains the clumsy nature of Strategy’s dividend instruments, and, if anything, the rapid pace of the videos Saylor posts comes across as panic and fear in a down market.

Protos will stay abreast of the Strategy and STRC situation, particularly if it’s able to finally bring the preferred shares back to parity.

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