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BTC close to a bottom in price, but bulls will have to be patient

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BTC close to a bottom in price, but bulls will have to be patient

Bitcoin is exhibiting textbook bottom formation characteristics across multiple indicators, trading at levels that historically precede significant recoveries, according to onchain analyst James Check. Time — not price — is, however, likely to be the bigger test for bitcoin bulls.

“Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain, is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which December 2018 and June 2022 were examples of),” wrote Check on Tuesday morning as bitcoin plunged through $63,000, seemingly on its way to testing the Feb. 5 panic low of $60,000.

“Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken,” Check continued. “Or you should be ignoring the bears … and quietly [be] dollar cost averaging [and] stacking sats from here on.”

Check — who correctly urged caution in 2025 about investing in any of BTC treasury companies formed to try and replicate the success of Michael Saylor’s Strategy — acknowledged today that it’s possible or even likely that the price of bitcoin could fall even further from here. Time, though, will be the more important factor. He reminded of the brutal 2022 bear market. Folks remember the price low around $15,600 in December of that year, but bitcoin essentially bottomed six months earlier at about $17,600. The rest was just waiting, and then a final liquidity flush (surrounding the FTX collapse).

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“This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for bitcoin,” concluded Check. “If you’re not actively accumulating bitcoin at this stage, then when?”

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Crypto World

Institutional ETF Flows Tilt Toward This Altcoin in February

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Solana ETF flows in February

Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are diverging from broader crypto ETF trends this month. While demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum products has shown signs of cooling, Solana-linked funds have maintained steady inflows.

The shift comes amid heightened volatility in digital asset markets. With macro uncertainty weighing on investor sentiment, ETF flows may be offering a signal of where institutional capital is positioning in the short term.

Solana ETF Streak Stands Out in Volatile Crypto Market

According to data from SoSoValue, Solana ETFs have recorded consecutive inflows since February 10. As of February 24, the products have logged only three red days this month. Overall, the ETFs have pulled in $30.33 million. 

The streak stands out against the more uneven performance seen in larger crypto ETFs during the same period.

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Solana ETF flows in February
Solana ETF flows in February. Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin ETFs have posted mixed results in February. Inflows were recorded on seven trading days this month. Ethereum ETFs have followed a similar pattern, reflecting inconsistent demand rather than sustained accumulation. 

Despite those positive sessions, cumulative flows remain deeply negative. So far this month, Bitcoin ETFs’ net outflows stand at $939.94 million. In addition, Ethereum ETFs recorded outflows of $490.58 million.

When compared to other altcoin products, Solana’s performance also appears relatively stronger. XRP-linked ETFs have experienced outflows on three trading sessions this month while recording zero flows on four days. 

Although the number of positive sessions is comparable, the consistency of Solana’s streak since mid-February remains notable.

Nonetheless, it is important to contextualize the data. In absolute dollar terms, inflows into Solana ETFs remain smaller than those seen in Bitcoin products. 

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Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to command the majority of institutional crypto exposure and overall capital allocation. However, consistency in flows can indicate relative resilience in demand during periods of broader uncertainty.

The steady inflows into Solana products suggest that some investors are maintaining or selectively increasing exposure to higher-beta assets, even as flagship crypto ETFs experience uneven demand. Still, the divergence may reflect short-term capital rotation rather than a structural shift in institutional positioning.

SOL Price Remains Under Pressure 

Despite the ETF inflows, Solana’s price performance has continued to reflect broader market weakness. Like most major digital assets, SOL has trended downward over the past month, declining 32.8%.

The altcoin saw a modest recovery today, rising more than 7% as total crypto market capitalization expanded by approximately $32 billion. At press time, SOL was trading at $82.15.

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Solana (SOL) Price Performance.
Solana (SOL) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

However, technical analysts remain cautious on the asset’s near-term outlook. Market commentator Alejandro suggested that Solana’s next downside target could be $45.

Whale Factor described the token as entering a high-probability “make or break” zone on the 4-hour chart. According to the analysis, SOL’s wedge formation is “reaching maximum exhaustion,” signaling a potential volatility squeeze at a critical inflection point.

The analyst outlined two possible scenarios:

“Bull Case: Clean break and retest of $82 targets the $97-100 macro resistance. Bear Case: Failure to hold the $78 support level opens the door for a retest of $68.”

Whether Solana will extend its recovery or face renewed downside pressure remains to be seen.

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Bitcoin Rebounds as Traders Debate Jane Street “10am Price Slam”

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Bitcoin Rebounds as Traders Debate Jane Street "10am Price Slam"

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to reclaim $65,000 as support into Wednesday’s Wall Street open as rumors swirled around US institutional pressure.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin bounces 2.5% as talk turns to alleged selling pressure from Wall Street trading company Jane Street.

  • Jane Street rebuts claims of crypto market manipulation during the 2022 bear market.

  • “Razor thin” order books boost BTC price volatility.

Bitcoiners debate Jane Street “10am price slam”

Data from TradingView tracked a BTC price rebound, taking BTC/USD to $66,300 on Bitstamp before the pair consolidated.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Daily price gains remained at more than 2% at the time of writing, while crypto market participants became increasingly interested in potential deliberate BTC price suppression.

A theory circulating on social media revolved around secretive quantitative investment firm Jane Street, now subject to legal action by defunct crypto company Terraform Labs.

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Coordinated algorithmic selling of Bitcoin at 10am Eastern time daily, it alleged, provided the main impetus for months of BTC price downside beginning in October 2025.

Amid the ongoing legal proceedings, Jane Street may have been forced to suspend its trading strategy, leaving the market to adjust higher.

The Terraform Labs complaint makes specific reference to “market manipulation” that impacted crypto throughout 2022, the year in which Bitcoin put in its last bear market bottom of $15,600 in Q4.

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Jane Street told Cointelegraph that the accusations were “baseless, opportunistic claims.”

The 10am argument, meanwhile, failed to convince many. Crypto YouTuber Wise Advice was among them, suggesting that the theory was too simplistic to be valid.

BTC price versus “razor thin” liquidity

Commenting on the latest BTC price move, traders remained cautious.

Related: Bitcoin ETF sell-off is ‘purification’ of bull case, investor says

“$BTC is facing major resistance at $66k – from both the local range lows and the 4h trend,” trader Jelle wrote in his latest analysis on X. 

“Flipping that could spark short-term relief, but until that happens, the trend is clear. Don’t fight it.”

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Jelle/X

Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, said that a “razor thin order book” on exchanges had contributed to the price rebound.

Overhead sell liquidity, he told X followers, had been pulled in advance of US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

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The 24-hour crypto liquidations totaled $333 million at the time of writing, per data from CoinGlass, with shorts accounting for $213 million of that figure.

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass