US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing renewed investor demand, but the latest inflow streak has yet to provide enough momentum for a stronger recovery.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $75.7 million in net inflows for the week ending July 17, marking a second consecutive week of positive flows, according to SoSoValue data.

The latest inflows followed $197.4 million in net inflows the previous week, bringing July’s total ETF inflows to $200.2 million. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, with total 2026 net flows still negative at $5.2 billion.

Monthly flows in US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs since January. Source: SoSoValue

Analysts said the return of inflows suggests selling pressure is easing, but the current pace of buying remains too limited to confirm a broader uptrend.

New uptrend requires Bitcoin to decisively break above $65K

The two-week ETF inflow streak came as Bitcoin recovered toward $64,000 after falling from higher levels in June, but the move has not yet been strong enough to confirm a broader trend reversal, according to Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com.

Bitcoin needs to “decisively break above the $65,000–$65,500 range” to confirm a new uptrend, Massabni told Cointelegraph, adding that the current recovery “still lacks real strength.”

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

“Four consecutive sessions of inflows should be interpreted as a sign that selling pressure is easing, rather than clear evidence that institutional investors have returned on a broad scale,” Massabni said, referring to the daily ETF flow data from last week.

Citi cuts 12-month Bitcoin ETF inflow forecast from $10 billion to zero

Massabni also highlighted Citigroup’s recent revision to its Bitcoin ETF outlook, which reflects concerns over the strength of institutional demand.

On July 1, Citi cut its 12-month ETF inflow forecast from $10 billion to zero after weaker-than-expected flows and recent outflows. The bank also lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000.

Related: Prediction markets defy crypto downturn with record Q2 volume: CoinGecko

“The market does not lack reasons to start buying Bitcoin,” Massabni said, adding that “what is still missing is a sufficiently strong catalyst — most likely a flow of capital large and persistent enough to turn the current rebound into a genuine trend.”

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas compared Bitcoin ETFs’ trajectory with gold ETFs, noting that both products have experienced rapid adoption followed by extended periods of weaker performance.

Source: Eric Balchunas

In an X post on Friday, Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs may follow a similar pattern of “spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries,” with each cycle potentially setting higher highs over time.

Magazine: Will the US get CLARITY this week? Bitcoin’s new $80K target: Hodler’s Digest, July 19

Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has signed an executive order aimed at reducing what the government describes as fragmentation in how digital asset activities are regulated across agencies. In remarks relayed by the president’s special adviser, Bayo Onanuga, the order is framed as a coordination effort rather than a sweeping reallocation of powers.

According to Onanuga, the executive order seeks to “harmonize the regulation of virtual assets,” improve cooperation among financial, revenue, and capital markets agencies, and better protect citizens from fraud while enabling “responsible innovation.” It also sets up a virtual asset council to steer related policy work, while the Nigerian tax authority is directed to update its approach.

Key takeaways

• Nigeria’s executive order focuses on harmonizing digital asset regulation through coordination, not by creating a new regulator.
• A new virtual asset council is planned, bringing top regulators under a single policy direction structure.
• The Nigerian Revenue Service is expected to issue updated guidance on how digital asset activity is taxed.
• Officially, registration requirements are described as activity- and asset-dependent, designed to close oversight gaps for unregistered operators.

Executive order targets regulatory fragmentation

Onanuga said the framework established by the executive order does not create a new regulator or transfer statutory powers between Nigeria’s institutions. Instead, he described it as a method to coordinate existing mandates while maintaining independence for each agency.

In the government’s framing, the problem is that digital asset oversight has not been sufficiently unified, creating room for operators to operate without falling cleanly under regulatory scrutiny. Onanuga said the registration approach will be determined by the “nature of the activity and the asset involved,” and that this is intended to “close the gaps” through which unregistered actors have previously escaped oversight.

For market participants, the distinction between “coordination” and “new regulator” matters. When powers are not consolidated into a single authority, compliance requirements can remain distributed—but clearer harmonization can reduce ambiguity about which agency handles which aspect of onboarding, reporting, or enforcement.

Virtual asset council brings regulators under one policy umbrella

The executive order also establishes a virtual asset council headed by senior figures from Nigeria’s financial regulators. While the order’s intent is described as policy direction, the key practical takeaway is that regulators are being pulled into a more structured dialogue.

Onanuga’s comments suggest the council is meant to align policy across agencies without replacing their statutory roles. That structure could affect how rules evolve over time—especially if the council is used to reconcile differing interpretations of responsibilities among financial oversight bodies, revenue authorities, and capital markets regulators.

Nigeria’s adoption trajectory makes that coordination particularly important. The country has been a major hub for stablecoin and broader crypto activity in Africa, according to an IMF report cited in the government’s messaging.

Why Nigeria’s stablecoin and crypto footprint raises the stakes

In a June report referenced in the coverage, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Nigeria accounted for about 60% of stablecoin inflows within sub-Saharan Africa since 2019. The IMF report also estimated that Nigeria saw roughly $59 billion in crypto inflows between July 2023 and June 2024.

Those numbers underscore why Nigeria is a focal point for regulatory clarity—not only for local service providers but also for cross-border businesses and payment-linked use cases. When adoption is concentrated in one jurisdiction, regulatory uncertainty can quickly spill over into liquidity, on-ramps, and compliance planning for companies operating in or serving Nigerian users.

The IMF added that the policy challenge is to narrow the “workaround” incentives that arise in cross-border payments, while containing new risks. It characterized the solution as a clear strategy that remains open to innovation but anchored in strong macroeconomic policy and effective regulation.

In that context, Nigeria’s executive order can be read as an attempt to align regulation with actual usage patterns—particularly where stablecoins and other digital assets are used for value transfer and settlement.

Nigeria’s tax authority moves to tighten digital asset compliance

The executive order directs the Nigerian Revenue Service to update its policies on digital assets, building on steps already announced. As mentioned in the report, authorities in January said that, under the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, crypto service providers would be required to link transactions to tax identification numbers and, in some cases, national identification numbers.

The government position described in the coverage indicates that the additional details expected from the tax authority are intended to clarify the effects on taxpayers. For businesses, the existing direction toward identification linkage signals a compliance shift that could reshape onboarding procedures, transaction recordkeeping, and reporting workflows.

Because tax obligations often interact with financial regulation—especially where registration and oversight requirements are tied to who can operate—updated guidance from the Revenue Service may become a central piece of Nigeria’s broader digital asset compliance regime.

What to watch next

Investors, exchanges, and service providers in Nigeria will likely look for how the virtual asset council’s coordination translates into concrete, activity-specific registration rules and how the Nigerian Revenue Service operationalizes the tax identification linkage. The immediate uncertainty is not whether compliance will be tightened, but how quickly harmonized guidance will roll out across agencies and what standards will be used to determine registration requirements by asset type and business activity.

Coinbase has backed a tougher CLARITY Act after Senate Democrats added customer safeguards, even as its 2026 approval odds have fallen to 31% on Polymarket amid a dispute over ethics rules involving President Donald Trump.

Coinbase vice chair Ryan VanGrack told CNBC on Monday that Democrats had secured stronger consumer protections during closed-door negotiations over the bill’s final Senate text. He described those changes as giving the legislation “more teeth,” though he did not provide details about the provisions or indicate whether lawmakers had settled the separate ethics dispute.

“At the end of the day, this is about customer protections,” VanGrack said.

“The status quo lacks this infrastructure, lacks these protections, and the Democrats used this opportunity, wisely, to make sure that customers were first and foremost in [this bill].”

According to VanGrack, the additional safeguards address gaps in the current US framework for digital asset businesses and their customers. His comments also signal Coinbase’s support for the negotiations after the exchange opposed an earlier Senate draft at the start of the year.

CEO Brian Armstrong announced in January that Coinbase could not support the legislation as then written, a decision that may have contributed to a delay in the Senate Banking Committee’s markup. Since then, Coinbase executives have publicly supported efforts to pass a revised bill, with chief legal officer Paul Grewal among those calling for the process to continue.

Lawmakers have not released the final Senate text or scheduled a floor vote as of Monday. Although VanGrack praised the consumer protection changes, he did not say whether the latest negotiations had produced an ethics agreement capable of winning enough Democratic votes.

Trump ethics dispute holds up a Senate agreement

As crypto.news previously reported, Polymarket traders have lowered the CLARITY Act’s probability of becoming law in 2026 to 31% while the White House withholds support for a disputed ethics provision. The administration had not approved the proposed language as of July 20, according to sources cited in the report.

Those sources also said the White House had not told Senate negotiators what limits it would accept. Without a clear position from the administration, the report said lawmakers may require more time to draft an updated version, putting the Republican timetable for a vote before the August recess at risk.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants the chamber to consider the bill before lawmakers leave Washington, but he has acknowledged that Republicans have not reached a bipartisan agreement. Because the party cannot clear the Senate’s procedural barriers alone, Thune would need support from Democrats to advance the legislation.

Democratic lawmakers have tied their support to restrictions addressing elected officials’ financial interests in digital assets. Their concerns center on Trump’s crypto activities, including Official Trump (TRUMP), World Liberty Financial and other investments linked to the president and his family.

In June, Trump disclosed $1.4 billion in earnings tied to his memecoin, World Liberty Financial and other digital asset holdings. Democrats have cited such financial connections while pressing for ethics language in the market structure legislation, according to reports on the Senate negotiations.

Republican senators met Trump on Thursday to discuss the bill, though the meeting did not produce a public White House position on the contested provision. Senate Democrats held their own closed-door meeting a day earlier to assess whether they could support the legislation.

Coinbase support raises pressure for a compromise

Trump has urged the Senate to approve the CLARITY Act and used the death of Senator Lindsey Graham to renew that call. In a social media post last week, the president asked senators to pass the legislation “in honor of” the South Carolina Republican, whom Trump described as a strong supporter of the proposal.

Despite Trump’s public endorsement of the bill, the White House’s reluctance to accept the ethics language has left negotiators without an agreement needed to move it forward. The disagreement places the administration’s request for swift passage against Democratic demands for rules covering officials with crypto-linked financial interests.

The latest support from Coinbase gives the bill an industry endorsement from one of the largest US crypto exchanges. It also represents a change from Armstrong’s January rejection of the previous version, although neither Coinbase nor VanGrack has publicly endorsed a specific ethics proposal.

Coinbase’s relationship with federal regulators has also changed since Trump returned to office. During the Biden administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission sued the exchange for allegedly operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker and clearing agency.

After Trump took office, the SEC under acting Chair Mark Uyeda dropped the case. The agency’s withdrawal removed one of Coinbase’s largest regulatory disputes as Congress continued working on legislation intended to define oversight of digital asset markets.

For Senate negotiators, the unresolved issue remains whether stronger customer protections can be paired with ethics restrictions that satisfy Democrats and receive White House approval. Until lawmakers publish the revised text and secure enough bipartisan support, Thune’s desired vote before the August recess remains uncertain, while Polymarket traders continue to price in a low chance of enactment this year.

Exodus Movement has cut about 25% of its global workforce as the crypto wallet company reorganizes around a full-stack stablecoin payments platform.

According to a July 17 company notice filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the reduction will align Exodus’s costs and staffing priorities with its card issuance and payments strategy. The company also cited current market conditions and the continuing integration of Monavate and Baanx as factors behind the decision.

Exodus reported 215 full-time employees as of Dec. 31, 2025, according to its annual filing, which suggests that approximately 54 positions could be affected. The company did not provide an exact number or identify the departments included in the layoffs.

Affected workers will receive severance, continued benefits and other support during the transition, Exodus stated. Co-founder and CEO JP Richardson acknowledged the effect of the decision on employees while linking the restructuring to the company’s payments plans.

“These decisions are never easy because they affect talented people who have helped build Exodus,” Richardson said. “We are deeply grateful for their contributions and committed to supporting them through this transition.”

Trading under EXOD on the NYSE American, Exodus shares fell more than 8% to about $4.62 after the market opened Monday, extending pressure on a stock that closed at $5.06 on Friday. MarketWatch data showed EXOD trading near $4.76 later in Monday’s session, down roughly 6%, with an intraday low of $4.70. MarketWatch

Job cuts promise up to $13 million in yearly savings

Exodus expects the restructuring to produce between $10 million and $13 million in annualized cash operating expense savings, according to its SEC notice. Management expects the company to receive the full financial benefit in 2027, meaning the reduction will not immediately deliver all the projected savings.

Before reaching that point, Exodus expects to record between $2.5 million and $3.5 million in pre-tax charges. The company attributed most of those costs to severance and other expenses linked to departing employees, without giving a precise timetable for recognizing the charges.

Measured against the estimated number of affected roles, the projected annual savings indicate that the company is removing more than direct salary costs. However, Exodus has not published a breakdown covering wages, benefits, overlapping positions or other operating expenses, leaving the composition of the $10 million to $13 million estimate undisclosed.

The company also plans to keep reviewing its combined cost base and operating model while integrating Monavate and Baanx. According to Exodus, those purchases have increased its product capabilities, customer base and geographic reach, creating a larger organization that now requires a different allocation of staff and spending.

Exodus joins other financial and technology companies that have recently reduced headcount while reorganizing their operations. Robinhood announced in June that it would eliminate about 290 positions, equal to roughly 10% of its full-time workforce, and record approximately $28 million in restructuring charges.

In a message to employees, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev described that reduction as a move made from a strong business position. Robinhood told the SEC that it wanted to remove management layers, operate more efficiently, and close a small number of unfilled roles while continuing selective hiring.

Cloudflare made a deeper reduction in May, cutting more than 1,100 jobs, or about 20% of its workforce, as it adopted what the company called an “agentic AI-first operating model.” Reuters reported that Cloudflare expected $140 million to $150 million in related charges, while its shares fell around 19% in extended trading despite first-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street forecasts.

Acquisitions put payment rails inside Exodus

Exodus’s restructuring follows its May purchase of all outstanding shares in Monavate Holdings and Baanx.com for approximately $76.27 million. According to the company, that price matched the principal and interest outstanding on a loan to W3C Corp, the former parent of the two payments businesses, as of April 30. 

Monavate supplies card issuing, processing and regulatory infrastructure, while Baanx provides technology for crypto-linked cards and self-custodial stablecoin settlement. Exodus has said the combined operation can support payment card issuance through networks including Visa, Mastercard and Discover across the United States, United Kingdom and European Union.

Bringing those functions under its control is intended to reduce Exodus’s reliance on outside payment providers. A March company update stated that Monavate would give Exodus card-issuing capabilities in key markets, while Baanx technology would support real-time settlement using stablecoins held in self-custody. 

The workforce reduction now ties that payments expansion to a leaner cost base. Exodus said it will continue integrating the acquired businesses while directing resources toward cards, stablecoin settlement and the infrastructure connecting those services to its existing wallet platform.

US lawmakers are moving toward a fast decision on the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, a bill widely viewed as one of the most comprehensive attempts yet to set federal rules for the crypto industry. With negotiations still underway behind closed doors, advocacy groups and major market participants are now offering a clearer picture of what Democrats and Republicans are arguing over as the Senate weighs its next steps.

In a Monday interview with CNBC, Coinbase vice chair Ryan VanGrack said the final language of the CLARITY Act was being negotiated in the Senate and that Democratic lawmakers had added further customer protections. He characterized those changes as giving the bill “more teeth,” framing the revisions as a corrective to what he described as an inadequacy in the current regulatory landscape. CNBC: Coinbase’s Ryan VanGrack discusses regulation.

Key takeaways

• Coinbase leadership says the CLARITY Act’s ongoing negotiations are increasingly centered on strengthening customer protections.
• Democrats are reportedly seeking additional safeguards beyond market-structure rules, with ethics provisions still a potential sticking point.
• Earlier opposition to the bill as written may have contributed to delays in the Senate Banking Committee markup process.
• President Donald Trump publicly urged the Senate to pass the bill soon, but floor timing remains uncertain while final text is negotiated.

Coinbase ties “customer protections” to the bill’s evolving text

VanGrack’s remarks highlight how the final shape of the CLARITY Act may be determined less by whether lawmakers broadly support the bill and more by what protections it must include for retail customers and other market participants. “At the end of the day, this is about customer protections,” he told CNBC, arguing that the existing system “lacks this infrastructure” and that Democrats used the opportunity to ensure customers come first.

The same interview also comes amid questions about what else could still be required for the measure to clear Democratic support thresholds. VanGrack did not explicitly discuss ethics provisions. However, earlier reporting described those ethics provisions as a likely condition for some Democrats to back the bill. Cointelegraph previously noted US senators opposing the CLARITY Act vote due to concerns that ethics-related requirements must be included.

How early industry resistance may have shaped the legislative timeline

The CLARITY Act’s road to the Senate has not been smooth. According to the CNBC interview context, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong may have played a role in slowing an earlier markup of a prior version of the bill in the Senate Banking Committee after he announced in January that the exchange could not support the legislation “as written.”

Since then, multiple Coinbase executives have publicly voiced support for the Senate passing the CLARITY Act, including Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal, who posted on social media after the bill advanced. Grewal’s earlier remarks are referenced here: Paul Grewal on X.

For market participants, that shift matters because it suggests the bill’s revisions may have aligned more closely with industry expectations—at least enough for Coinbase’s leadership to move from objection to endorsement. At the same time, it underscores that congressional text edits can quickly change who is comfortable with a bill’s outcome and when lawmakers can realistically schedule votes.

Politics and process: Trump’s push meets Democratic conditions

Beyond industry input, the CLARITY Act is unfolding in a politically charged environment. Trump has signaled strong support for passing the bill promptly. Earlier coverage notes that after the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, Trump said on social media that members of the Senate should pass the CLARITY Act “in honor of” the South Carolina lawmaker, whom he described as a “big supporter.” Cointelegraph reported US Senate session plans CLARITY Act vote.

Reports also indicate the bill has been discussed in meetings connected to Trump and Republican lawmakers. Politico coverage referenced by Cointelegraph described Republican senators meeting with Trump to talk through the measure, amid Democratic concerns about the president’s relationships with crypto. Cointelegraph cited the meeting in Trump to meet with senators over CLARITY Act.

Those concerns are amplified by disclosure details from Trump’s own filings. In June, Cointelegraph reported that Trump disclosed $1.4 billion in earnings tied to his memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), his family’s crypto company World Liberty Financial, and other digital asset investments. See: Trump earned more from crypto than real estate.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats reportedly held a closed-door meeting on Wednesday to evaluate their positions. As of Monday, lawmakers had not released the final text of the bill or scheduled a floor vote, according to the reporting summarized in the source.

Regulatory context: the SEC case against Coinbase and why it still matters

The CLARITY Act’s push also sits against a backdrop of high-profile enforcement. Under the Biden administration, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Coinbase alleging it operated as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency. That case was dropped shortly after President Trump took office, with the SEC led by acting chair Mark Uyeda at the time.

For the crypto industry, that history increases the stakes of federal legislation like CLARITY. A comprehensive market-structure bill can be viewed as an attempt to reduce the risk of similar enforcement-style disputes by defining clearer regulatory boundaries. At the same time, the ongoing emphasis on customer protections and potential ethics provisions suggests lawmakers are trying to balance rulemaking with trust and accountability—issues that go beyond technical market definitions.

What to watch next

With the Senate still negotiating the final text and no floor vote scheduled as of Monday, the key question for investors and builders is whether customer-protection updates satisfy Democratic priorities quickly enough to avoid delays tied to ethics-related demands. The bill’s next public drafting steps—and any newly released language—will likely determine whether momentum holds or whether the CLARITY Act returns to committee rather than reaching the full chamber.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last full week of July holding key support while macro clouds continue to gather.

Key points:

• Bitcoin preserves its 200-week trend line at the weekly close, leading to short-term BTC price targets of up to $67,000.
• US-Iran war rhetoric ramps up, with oil prices hitting five-week highs ahead of a week of corporate earnings reports.
• Bitcoin spot demand retreats from its early-July uptick despite ETF inflows.
• Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple heads higher, but analysts are wary of calling a “generational low.”
• Crypto market sentiment hits highest levels since the start of June.

Trader sees “further relief” for Bitcoin bulls

In a familiar move, Bitcoin saw sell-side pressure soon after the weekly close going into Monday morning, with local lows reaching $63,700, data from TradingView confirms.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Despite this, traders are becoming increasingly optimistic on shorter time frames as range lows continue to hold.

“Wouldn’t surprise me if we see some further relief this week – towards 65-67k,” trader Jelle predicted in his latest analysis posted Monday morning on X.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jelle/X

Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC/USD had sealed its third consecutive weekly close above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $63,322.

“To really get this interesting you want to see a strong push higher now to retrace that last leg down and get back above the Weekly 200EMA,” he told X followers, referring to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,521.

“Until then, we’re just caught in this $60K choppy price range.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Others doubled down on bullish conviction, with trader Roman again flagging multiple bullish divergences across BTC price metrics, including the relative strength index (RSI), a classic leading indicator.

“Bitcoin is more than halfway through its second year in the current BTC Four Year Cycle. 2025 proved to be the year of the $BTC Bull Market peak. And 2026 has proven itself to be the year of the Bitcoin Bear Market,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized. 

“2027 will be the Bottoming Out year to precede an entirely brand new future Bitcoin Bull Market.”

BTC/USD 12-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital now calculates the current bear market to be just over 70% complete.

Iran worries send oil prices higher

Geopolitical risk is top of the agenda for risk-asset traders this week as the US-Iran war escalates once again.

Iran’s foreign minister warned of potentially “unresolvable” nuclear disputes while US President Donald Trump called on lawmakers to add Iran to a sanctions bill that was initially directed at Russia. 

Source: Truth Social

Oil futures surged at the weekly open, with WTI crude at five-week highs above $80 per barrel and Brent crude topping $90.

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported, the return of the conflict saw the swift closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, that was briefly cleared for traffic as part of the now-failed US-Iran peace deal.

The latest Iran events provide volatile backdrop to the week’s macro outlook, which focuses on major corporate earnings as tech stocks face new headwinds.

In the coming days, Tesla, Alphabet and Intel will all report, providing a potential short-term volatility catalyst across risk assets.

“Earnings season is officially in full-swing,” trader resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in a thread on X.

Following last week’s lower-than-expected US inflation data, meanwhile, Trump was buoyant, calling the numbers “great news.”

“As Investment pours into our Country, Factory Construction surges, Manufacturing Jobs rise, and Prices fall, there is so much to be proud of — The Golden Age of America is here!” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Markets remained conservative on policy changes from the Federal Reserve, with the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing consensus for a 0.25% interest-rate hike in September.

Fed target-rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting (screenshot).
Source: CME Group

Bitcoin spot demand returns lower

Lackluster spot-market demand remains a key stumbling block on the road to bull-market recovery, research says.

In a blog post on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed that a modest supply increase at the start of July had already dissipated. 

“Bitcoin’s 30-day Spot Demand recovered sharply to around -80K BTC in early July but has since deteriorated again to nearly -170K BTC,” contributor ScenarioX wrote. 

Bitcoin demand data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on spot demand staying negative while recovering significantly on a rolling 30-day basis as BTC/USD hit $64,000. At the same time, futures markets saw a more pronounced influx of interest.

This was reflected in net flows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were positive for four out of five days last week, per data from UK-based investment manager, Farside Investors.

“Despite this significant decline in spot demand, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable, mainly due to easing short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market,’ ScenarioX said.

“However, derivatives demand remains insufficient to support a sustainable uptrend on its own. This leaves the market in a structurally fragile state, where renewed spot selling could trigger a sharp downside move.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

CryptoQuant suggested that the market could still continue to gain “for a while” before futures demand was exhausted.

“However, the rally without meaningful spot demand is likely to end in a significant long liquidation event,” ScenarioX warned.

Puell Multiple lows fail to convince

A classic BTC price metric is showing signs of a reversal this month, but CryptoQuant warns that it is too early to talk of a “generational low.”

The Puell Multiple, which measures the USD value of newly issued BTC each day relative to its 365-day moving average, continues to head higher after seeing macro lows in early June.

“A low reading means miner income is well below normal,” CryptoQuant contributor TheChessOnChain explained in a blog post.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: CryptoQuant

Puell in turn reflects on Bitcoin miners’ financial stability, and June’s 0.87 reading was the lowest since September 2024. Zooming out, however, each BTC price cycle has delivered higher lows for Puell, potentially boosting that latter reading’s chances of forming the next floor.

“These bottoms are getting shallower, and the four-year supply cut (the halving) is not the cause: the metric scales both sides of its ratio, so cutting new supply cancels out. The real driver: price falls less each cycle (down 83% in 2018, 77% in 2022, less since), so miner income never sinks as deep,” TheChessOnChain said.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

While Puell lows do not strictly correspond to BTC price bear-market bottoms, TheChessOnChain suggests that waiting for new lower readings — including the metric’s classic deep value territory — may be a flawed strategy.

“The 2024 and 2026 lows came with price still high, so they are Puell lows, not price bottoms. Waiting for the classic sub-0.5 zone, where miners sell at a loss, may mean waiting for a level that no longer prints,” they said. 

“Today reads as easing miner pressure, not a generational low. It turns decisive only if it holds beneath recent lows for weeks.”

Crypto sentiment gauge nears two-month high

Despite macro headwinds brewing over the weekend, crypto market sentiment continues to post a steady recovery.

Related: Bitcoin bottom countdown nears 50 days after BTC supply in loss passed 50%

The latest readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show panic slowly dissipating among the broader investor base.

On Monday, the gauge measured 29/100 — still within its “fear” bracket but at its highest levels since the start of June. For much of the intervening period, crypto was gripped by “extreme fear.”

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

In commentary on the rebound last week, research platform Santiment underscored its timing with the return of ETF inflows.

“After a long outflow stretch throughout May and June, this shift signals ETF demand is back and confidence in crypto is starting to pick up again,” it wrote on X.

Santiment argued that “encouraging” US inflation data had helped boost risk appetite, while “crypto policy optimism added another reason for sidelined buyers to re-enter.”

As lawmakers in the US Senate are likely to vote soon on the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, representatives from advocacy organizations and companies are providing details of closed-door negotiations over the bill, which is expected to be the most comprehensive piece of legislation affecting the crypto industry.

In a Monday CNBC interview, Coinbase vice chair Ryan VanGrack said while the final negotiations over text of the CLARITY Act were taking place in the Senate, Democratic lawmakers had added additional protections for customers to give what he called “more teeth” to the legislation. He did not explicitly mention any progress on adding ethics provisions to the bill, which many Democrats said will be necessary for their votes. 

“[A]t the end of the day, this is about customer protections,” said VanGrack. “The status quo lacks this infrastructure, lacks these protections, and the Democrats used this opportunity, wisely, to make sure that customers were first and foremost in [this bill].”

Notably, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong may have contributed to a delay for a markup of an earlier version of the bill in the Senate Banking Committee, when he announced in January that the exchange could not support the legislation as written. Several Coinbase executives have since come out publicly in favor of the Senate passing the bill, including chief legal officer Paul Grewal. 

Related: Ethics remain sticking point as crypto market structure bill goes to markup

Under the Biden administration, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Coinbase for allegedly operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker and clearing agency. The case was dropped shortly after US President Donald Trump took office, with the agency headed by his pick for acting SEC chair, Mark Uyeda.

CLARITY has Trump’s support, but ethics could leave bill in limbo

Last week, following the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, Trump said on social media that members of the Senate should pass the CLARITY Act “in honor of” the South Carolina lawmaker, who he claimed had been “a big supporter” of the bill.

Republican lawmakers reportedly met with Trump on Thursday to discuss the bill amid Democrats’ concerns about the president’s ties to the crypto industry. In June, the president disclosed $1.4 billion in earnings related to his memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), his family crypto company World Liberty Financial and other digital asset investments.

Senate Democrats also reportedly held a closed-door meeting on Wednesday to assess their positions on the CLARITY Act. As of Monday, lawmakers had not released the final text of the bill or scheduled a floor vote.

Magazine: Will the crypto lobby’s $189M campaign get CLARITY over the line?