Crypto’s next phase of altcoin trading may look less like a wide, multi-token “altseason” and more like a tighter set of bets, according to market maker Wintermute. In its OTC flow report for the first half of 2026, the firm says institutional counterparties became the dominant source of spot trading on its desk—an important signal for how liquidity and momentum may behave during future rallies.

Wintermute reports that institutions generated 72% of spot flow across all tokens in its OTC activity, the highest share on record. The figure rose from 61% in the second half of 2025 and from 59% in the first half of the prior year.

Key takeaways

• Institutional spot OTC flow reached 72% in H1 2026, up from 59% in H1 2025—marking a clear shift toward narrower participation.
• Institutional liquidity appears to concentrate in fewer tokens, while demand weakens across the market’s “long tail.”
• After price surges, institutional interest fades faster: roughly one day versus about three days for retail, Wintermute says.
• Third-party data echoes the concentration trend, including exchange-volume clustering among the largest altcoins.

Why Wintermute’s OTC data changes the altcoin outlook

Wintermute’s report points to a structural change in how capital is allocated across the altcoin market. When institutions concentrate their activity in a smaller set of tokens, liquidity tends to follow the institutions’ preferences. That can reshape both market depth and the duration of momentum when prices jump.

Wintermute argues that this concentration also affects the “long tail”—the many smaller, less liquid assets that often benefit when broader retail speculation kicks in. As institutional activity becomes more focused, those smaller tokens may not receive the same sustained attention during breakout moments, reducing the odds of broad-based rallies.

Concentration is rising, and it’s not just a theory

Beyond the headline share of institutional flow, Wintermute highlights how widespread the trading footprint is on its OTC desk. Between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2026, the number of unique tokens traded by Wintermute’s institutional counterparties increased by 24%. Over the same period, the number for retail clients rose by 76%.

In practical terms, this suggests institutions are not only accounting for more of the activity—they are also broadening more slowly across tokens. That matters for traders because it implies that liquidity and “spot attention” can become more clustered, potentially increasing the chance that rallies are sharper in a handful of assets while fading sooner elsewhere.

Wintermute also examines what happens after a token’s price and volume surge. The firm says institutional activity following such spikes typically fades after roughly one day. Retail participation, by contrast, often stays elevated for about three days. That time gap is a key difference: it can influence how long market participants expect follow-through, and it can alter the risk profile of buying after a sudden move.

Signals from other market data: rotation is less visible

Wintermute’s findings align with other monitoring of crypto trading behavior. On June 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the traditional rotation of Bitcoin profits into smaller crypto assets had “basically disappeared.” According to CryptoQuant data highlighted in that context, Bitcoin-denominated altcoin pair volumes were near their weakest level since 2021.

The broader pattern is that altcoin trading may be becoming less driven by systematic cross-market rotation and more focused on a narrower set of assets with deeper liquidity and clearer institutional demand.

Concentration is also visible in market share statistics. The 10 largest non-stablecoin altcoins were said to account for roughly 80.5% of the capitalization of the non-Bitcoin, non-stablecoin market. On the exchange side, Kaiko reported a similar clustering: in July 2025, the data provider said the ten largest altcoins represented 63% of altcoin trading volume, rising from around 50% several months earlier as activity in smaller tokens weakened.

From “altseason” breadth to selective moves

The implication of this body of data is that “altseason” may increasingly resemble selective sector rotation rather than a catch-all surge across a wide universe of coins. The market narrative is being reshaped by the participants who can move size and manage risk efficiently—especially institutions.

Commentary from DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev argued that broad altcoin rallies are giving way to more selective sector moves. In March, he suggested that too many tokens compete for limited capital, while institutional investors maintain focus on Bitcoin, Ether, and tokenized real-world assets.

Wintermute’s OTC report provides a quantitative way to interpret that shift: if institutions concentrate spot OTC liquidity, then price pressure and sustained post-surge buying may cluster around a smaller portion of the altcoin landscape. Retail activity may still energize moves across a broader set of tokens, but the institutional “after-effect” appears shorter-lived in Wintermute’s findings—potentially reducing the runway for long-cycle altcoin runs.

As H2 2026 unfolds, investors and traders may want to watch whether this institutional dominance persists across more tokens—or whether it continues to narrow liquidity further. The next signal to monitor is whether post-surge institutional follow-through remains compressed to about a day, since that would reinforce a market regime where winners are more concentrated and rallies fade faster outside the most liquid, institution-favored assets.

South Korean crypto exchange Upbit announced on July 31 that it would list Conflux’s CFX token against the Korean won, Bitcoin and Tether. Trading is scheduled to begin at 16:00 Korea Standard Time.

The official Upbit notice was published at 14:00 KST. Deposits and withdrawals were expected to open within 90 minutes through Conflux eSpace. However, Upbit said the trading launch “may be delayed” if the exchange cannot secure enough liquidity.

On 30 July, Amazon.com reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations. Revenue rose 20% year-on-year to $200.6 billion, compared with the consensus forecast of around $196.5 billion. The main growth driver was the AWS cloud business, where sales increased by 37% — the fastest growth rate in 18 quarters — while the segment’s operating profit surged to $16.6 billion. Total operating profit climbed 43% to $27.5 billion. Net income reached $62.6 billion, or $5.75 per share, although a substantial portion came from a $53.4 billion non-operating gain related to the revaluation of Amazon’s stake in Anthropic. Advertising revenue also increased by 26% year-on-year.

Amazon Technical Analysis

On the four-hour AMZN chart, a downtrend developed after the stock peaked near $278 in May. The decline towards $226 at the end of June was followed by a corrective recovery along an ascending trendline connecting higher lows until mid-July, when the price approached resistance around $258, where the red resistance level is currently located. A break below this trendline signalled that the correction had run out of momentum, after which the price returned to the current market profile range, settling between the POC zone at $244.5 and the lower profile boundary at $232.5. Below this area lies the green support level at $226.5.

Should the current rebound continue and the price break above the POC zone, it is likely to face two further obstacles: the upper profile boundary at $249 and the red resistance level at $258. It is also worth noting that the RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 46, 36 and 43. The indicator suggests that the slower moving average has yet to move below the parity zone, while the RSI has already recovered from oversold territory.

Summary

Strong earnings provide a fundamental catalyst for a continuation of the current rebound, although the RSI + MAs oscillator has yet to generate a clear signal. In the coming days, further guidance from management on AI infrastructure capital expenditure, along with the market’s reaction to earnings reports from other technology giants, could determine the stock’s next move.

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Quantum Solutions sold 1,000 ETH for $1.903 million on July 30 through its consolidated subsidiary, GPT Pals Studio Limited.

The Tokyo-listed company plans to redirect the proceeds toward its AI Infrastructure Data Center business. The sale reduced the group’s Ethereum balance to 4,764.80 ETH and is expected to produce a loss of about ¥17 million in the second quarter of the fiscal year ending February 2027.

The company also raised the maximum amount authorized for sale from 1,875 ETH to 4,375 ETH. After two disposals totaling 1,904 ETH, Quantum may sell another 2,471 ETH before October 30. Any further transactions will depend on funding needs, market conditions and progress in its AIDC plans.

Quantum Solutions expands its ETH sale authority

The revised ceiling adds 2,500 ETH to the earlier authorization adopted on June 4. Quantum said the change gives it more flexibility to fund data-center usage agreements, GPU equipment, launch preparations and related operating costs. The filing states that the increase “does not constitute a decision to immediately sell” the entire authorized amount.

Quantum’s first sale occurred on June 16, when GPT Pals sold 904 ETH at $1,777.07 each for about $1.606 million. That transaction left the group with 5,764.80 ETH and generated an expected ¥18 million loss based on its revalued carrying price.

The latest sale creates a ¥17 million loss

GPT Pals received a net $1,903 per ETH in the July transaction. Quantum had marked the assets at $2,003.97 each on May 31, leaving a $100.97 difference per token. The company therefore expects a $100,970 realized loss, equal to roughly ¥17 million at its stated exchange rate.

That accounting loss is not measured against the original historical purchase price. Quantum uses fair-value accounting and records valuation changes at each quarter-end. When it sells ETH, it compares the sale price with the latest carrying value under its moving-average method.

Most remaining ETH is tied to loan collateral

Of the 4,764.80 ETH left after the sale, 3,050 ETH remains pledged to a Singapore-based financial services company as collateral for an earlier borrowing. Only 1,714.80 ETH sits in GPT Pals’ crypto trading account, according to the filing.

The remaining authorization exceeds that unpledged balance by 756.20 ETH. This means Quantum would likely need to release or replace some collateral, acquire more ETH or use another arrangement before selling the full additional 2,471 ETH. The company has not said that it will take any of those steps.

Quantum’s top Japanese treasury ranking is disputed

The two sales have cut Quantum’s ETH holdings by about 28.6% from the 6,668.80 ETH reported before the June disposal. As previously reported, Quantum became one of the leading listed Ethereum treasury companies after rapidly adding ETH in late 2025.

Its current Japanese ranking is less clear. BitcoinTreasuries.net lists Def Consulting with 4,976 ETH as of June 30, which would place Quantum behind it. However, CoinGecko currently lists Def Consulting at 4,571 ETH. The conflicting tracker figures mean the claim that Quantum remains Japan’s largest listed Ethereum holder cannot be treated as settled without a newer company disclosure.

moreover, FG Nexus also reduced its Ethereum treasury in June as losses widened. Meanwhile, larger holders including BitMine and SharpLink continued accumulating, showing that corporate Ethereum strategies have moved in different directions during the market downturn.

Quantum said it will disclose any further sales requiring public notice. The next formal checkpoint is its second-quarter results, scheduled around October 10 on the company’s investor calendar. Investors will then see the recognized sale losses, updated ETH holdings and any further AIDC spending before the authorization expires on October 30.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup generated $20 billion in blockchain prediction-market volume from January through the tournament’s end, Chainalysis reported on July 30. 

The analytics firm said more than 400,000 wallets participated, while $5.7 billion was traded during the five-week event.The report also tracked $24 million in stablecoin-powered trading through FIFA Collect, the football body’s official digital collectibles platform. The data show how betting, collectibles and ticket access converged on public blockchain infrastructure during the tournament.

World Cup prediction markets dominated onchain activity

World Cup-related markets accounted for about 63% of all prediction-market volume during the competition. Daily activity began near $50 million in January, exceeded $100 million during busy pre-tournament periods and moved toward $250 million after matches began on June 11.

Volume topped $300 million on the final, when Spain defeated Argentina, Chainalysis said. The $20 billion total covers trading from January, including qualifying and pre-tournament markets. It should not be read as betting conducted only during the tournament.

The figures fit a broader expansion in event contracts. Binance Research separately reported that monthly prediction-market notional volume rose 86% from January to $51.6 billion in June. It said Kalshi and Polymarket represented 92% of June’s total, although its market-wide measurement differs from Chainalysis’ World Cup-specific dataset.

U.S. and China led globally attributed volume

Chainalysis attributed the most activity to the U.S. and China, followed by Canada, Thailand and the United Kingdom. Participation came from every continent except Antarctica.

However, the firm cautioned that its proprietary geolocation method “may carry uncertainty” when VPNs, mixers or privacy tools obscure wallet locations. The rankings therefore represent Chainalysis’ attribution, not verified residence data for every participant.

However, World Cup demand pushed daily prediction-market volume sharply higher during June. In addition, Kalshi gained tournament exposure through ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s official prediction-market partner.

Chainalysis identified about 3,700 participating wallets with traceable illicit interaction histories, representing less than 1% of the total. It reported at least $5.4 million flowing from Huobi or HTX into wallets that later used World Cup markets. Scam-linked wallets accounted for about $2 million, while stolen-fund exposure exceeded $800,000.

The U.K. designated Huobi Global on May 26 under its Russia sanctions regime and clarified that HTX falls within those restrictions through ownership. The European Union later added HTX to a transaction-ban list, with the measure scheduled to apply from August 23.

These findings measure earlier wallet interactions and fund flows. They do not prove that each flagged wallet committed an offense through its World Cup trades.

FIFA Collect connected digital assets with tickets

FIFA Collect let users trade digital collectibles and obtain rights connected to match tickets. FIFA says more than 100,000 fans gained stadium access through its Right-to-Ticket products. Chainalysis traced $24 million in payments to a key FIFA Collect smart-contract wallet from May 2025 through the tournament.

The firm estimated that FIFA received at least $6 million from secondary transactions after applying the platform’s 5% share. It found negligible direct illicit exposure among FIFA Collect users, which “may be a result of FIFA’s robust KYC practices,” according to Chainalysis. That explanation is an assessment, not a controlled test.

As crypto.news reported, FIFA moved its collectibles platform to a purpose-built, Avalanche-based blockchain in 2025. The next test is whether ticket-linked collectibles and prediction-market users remain active after the World Cup. Regulators and platforms will also face pressure to strengthen sanctions screening, market surveillance and settlement controls as event-contract volumes expand.

Crypto markets barely registered one of the sharpest equity rallies of the year on Friday, with bitcoin holding near $64,300 while South Korean stocks staged a record rebound from the selloff that dominated the past two weeks.

The majors were close to unchanged. Ether traded at $1,907, XRP at $1.08, solana at $74 and dogecoin at $0.07, with roughly $27 billion changing hands in bitcoin and $7 billion in ether. BNB was the exception, up 3% on the day to $590 and the only major holding a meaningful weekly gain. Bitcoin spiked to $65,300 in early Asian hours before giving it back within an hour.

The weekly picture stays soft. Hyperliquid’s HYPE is down 5% over seven sessions, solana and XRP are each off 3%, and bitcoin has lost 2%. Ether and dogecoin are up 1%.

Equities went the other way, hard. The Kospi surged as much as 17%, rebounding from a three-day rout that had taken the index more than 40% below its June peak. Samsung and SK Hynix both jumped more than 23%, and Taiwan Semiconductor rose 10%, making chipmakers the biggest contributors to a broad Asian advance.

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer introduced the Anti-Corruption Bureau Creation Act on July 30, proposing a federal agency with authority to investigate and pursue executive-branch corruption. 

Senators Andy Kim, Alex Padilla and Jeff Merkley joined Schumer as original cosponsors.The bill cites President Donald Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure and says he received at least $2 billion from investments and business interests, including more than $1.4 billion connected to crypto ventures. The proposal does not itself establish that any disclosed income resulted from illegal conduct.

The crypto figure represents an aggregation of entries in the disclosure, rather than a single total calculated by the Office of Government Ethics. The filing reports income and transaction amounts, not the net profit that would appear on a tax return.

Anti-Corruption Bureau would combine three watchdogs

Schumer’s proposal would place the Federal Election Commission, Office of Government Ethics and Office of Special Counsel inside one independent bureau. A seven-member board confirmed by the Senate would oversee investigations, subpoenas, enforcement actions and public reporting.

The legislation would also allow state attorneys general and private plaintiffs to seek recovery of funds allegedly obtained through corruption. Its official summary describes disgorgement, treble damages and awards for successful plaintiffs. It also proposes a self-financing Freedom From Influence Fund.

A three-judge division of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit could appoint temporary board members when vacancies threaten the bureau’s operation. The provision is intended to prevent a president or Senate from disabling the agency by leaving seats vacant.

Trump’s crypto income came from several ventures

Trump’s certified disclosure lists $635.1 million in royalties from Celebration Coins. It also records hundreds of millions of dollars from World Liberty Financial token sales, equity transactions and crypto wallets, plus $196.9 million tied to a stablecoin-related holding company. Together, the listed crypto-related entries exceed $1.4 billion.

Those figures describe disclosed revenue and proceeds, not necessarily Trump’s personal after-tax earnings. As previously reported, the filing showed that crypto generated more income than Trump’s resorts and other property businesses during 2025.

The bill separately states that Trump’s family held more than $1 billion in a crypto fund connected to foreign governments. It references a reported United Arab Emirates-backed investment in World Liberty Financial. These are legislative findings and allegations, not a court judgment that corruption occurred.

White House rejects conflict-of-interest claims

White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said Trump’s investments were held in fully discretionary accounts managed by independent third-party financial institutions. She maintained there were “no conflicts of interest.” Trump has also said he does not manage his personal finances while serving as president.

Schumer described the existing federal oversight system as a “broken patchwork” and argued that its agencies were not designed to address current executive-branch conduct. The White House disputes the premise that Trump’s business income creates an unlawful conflict.

The bill faces a difficult path through Congress

The publicly released full bill text still displayed a placeholder instead of a Senate bill number on July 31. The launch announcement listed four Democratic sponsors and no Republican cosponsor. The measure must clear both chambers before reaching Trump, who could veto it.

The proposal also enters a wider debate over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Senator Cynthia Lummis released updated Senate text on July 22 after the bill passed the Banking Committee by a 15–9 vote. Senator Elizabeth Warren argued that its current ethics provisions would not adequately restrict presidential crypto interests, while supporters continued to seek a bipartisan agreement.

Crypto.news reported that the CLARITY Act still faced disputes over ethics and banking provisions as supporters pressed for a vote. The Senate is scheduled to reconvene on Aug. 3, but no timetable has been announced for Schumer’s anti-corruption bill. Its next steps could include formal numbering, committee referral and hearings before any floor consideration.