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Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis: Bearish Momentum Dominates Despite Positive Macro Signals

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Cardano (ADA) Price

TLDR

  • Cardano is hovering near $0.27, facing critical resistance at a descending trendline around $0.28 that has consistently rejected upward moves
  • Futures open interest has declined to $462 million, and the long-to-short ratio of 0.79 reflects dominant bearish sentiment
  • Price action remains significantly below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, both positioned above the $0.30 mark
  • The Relative Strength Index stands at 46, below the neutral threshold, indicating limited momentum strength
  • Manufacturing PMI has climbed to 52.4%, marking the third straight monthly gain in a 40-month period—a pattern historically linked to ADA rallies

Cardano (ADA) continues to trade around the $0.27 level this Thursday, March 6, as the cryptocurrency tests a critical descending trendline positioned near $0.28. This technical barrier has proven formidable in recent sessions, rejecting price advances and maintaining its role as the primary short-term obstacle.

Cardano (ADA) Price
Cardano (ADA) Price

Futures market data reinforces the bearish narrative. Open interest in Cardano futures contracts has contracted to $462 million, marking a steady decline since the middle of January.

When open interest decreases while price action remains stagnant or declines, it typically indicates waning trader participation and reduced market conviction.

Source: Coinglass

CoinGlass data shows the long-to-short ratio currently at 0.79—approaching its lowest reading in more than 30 days. This metric reveals that short positions outnumber long positions, confirming that market participants are predominantly betting on further price declines.

From a technical perspective, ADA remains substantially below both its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, which are clustered above the $0.30 threshold. This distance underscores the prevailing downtrend that has gripped the asset.

The daily Relative Strength Index registers at 46. Though it has rebounded from oversold conditions, the indicator remains beneath the 50 centerline, signaling that bullish momentum has yet to establish itself convincingly.

The MACD indicator shows marginally positive readings, but the histogram displays minimal movement. This configuration suggests consolidation rather than the emergence of a definitive trend reversal.

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Key Price Levels to Watch

Looking at resistance zones, the immediate hurdle lies at the descending trendline near $0.28. A more formidable barrier exists at $0.32, where the downward-sloping EMAs also intersect.

A sustained daily close above $0.32 would be necessary to invalidate the current bearish framework and signal potential trend change.

On the downside, support is established at $0.26, with a secondary floor at $0.24. Should ADA breach the $0.24 level, it would likely trigger additional selling pressure.

Under current conditions, ADA appears poised to remain range-bound between $0.26 and $0.29 absent a significant market catalyst.

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Macro Indicator Points to Possible Shift

Bitcoin recently broke through the $73,000 barrier, reaching a one-month peak, yet ADA failed to capitalize on this momentum. The altcoin registered only modest gains and couldn’t sustain a close above the prior session’s high.

Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello has highlighted the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) as a potentially significant indicator for Cardano’s medium to long-term trajectory.

The PMI, which measures manufacturing sector vitality, currently registers at 52.4%. This marks the third consecutive monthly advance over a 40-month timeframe.

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Gambardello emphasizes that historical PMI expansion periods have frequently coincided with bullish cycles for ADA price performance.

The present configuration also bears resemblance to the 2019 correction phase, during which ADA experienced red monthly candles in six out of seven months before staging a substantial recovery.

Quantitative tightening concluded in December 2025. According to Gambardello, this development coupled with an ascending PMI creates a macro environment similar to the conditions that preceded Cardano’s previous significant price rally.

Cardano is now experiencing its sixth consecutive monthly decline following a negative February close.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

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Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

Key takeaways:

  • Bearish sentiment is rising as Bitcoin options professional traders lose confidence that the $66,000 level will hold for long.

  • The exit of David Sacks as the Crypto and AI czar and a lack of a clear US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan added to investors’ doubts.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% decline from the $71,300 level seen on Thursday. This move wiped out over $210 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures and left most call (buy) options worthless during the $18.6 billion monthly expiry. Traders now anticipate a 53% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $66,000 by April 24.

April 24 Bitcoin option prices at Deribit. Source: Deribit

On Friday, the April 24 Bitcoin $66,000 put (sell) options traded at 0.0566 BTC or roughly $3,730. With a 53% implied probability of Bitcoin trading below $66,000 by late April, the mood remains decidedly bearish following the increased uncertainty in the US and Israel-Iran war, pushing traders into a risk-averse mode.

US inflation threats and stalling crypto, Bitcoin legislation

Rising oil prices and a potential $200 billion in extra US military spending led investors to demand higher returns on government bonds and dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest levels since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged to $100 on Friday, while 5-year Treasury yields reached 4.07%, up from 3.72% three weeks prior.

US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. S&P 500 (right). Source: TradingView

Inflationary fear and weaker corporate earnings perspectives alone cannot explain Bitcoin’s 20% underperformance against the S&P 500 in 2026. Other factors are likely at play, including investors’ discomfort over the lack of progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

David Sacks has stepped down from his role as the Trump administration’s crypto and AI czar. While Sacks remains an advisor on the President’s Council on Science & Technology, his departure follows earlier comments that inflated Bitcoin investors’ expectations. Sacks had previously hinted that the US could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without raising taxes.

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Related: US lawmakers publish crypto tax proposal without Bitcoin tax exemption

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% on Friday, showing that put options are trading at a significant premium relative to call instruments. In balanced market conditions, this metric usually ranges between -6% and +6%. The current level indicates a lack of conviction among whales that the $66,000 level will hold. Fear has largely dominated the Bitcoin options market since mid-January.

Bitcoin options expiry favored neutral-to-bearish strategies

Friday’s monthly options expiry at $68,610 proved unfavorable for neutral-to-bullish strategies, as 97% of call options became void. Bears gained the upper hand as put options at $69,000 or higher surpassed $2 billion in open interest. Critically, part of Friday’s downward move reflects a growing unwillingness among traders to maintain Bitcoin exposure over the weekend.

Crypto markets cut risk on Friday due to uncertainty. Source: X/WhalePanda

X social platform user WhalePanda, suggested that the crash in risk markets anticipates President Trump making “another dumb escalating move” after US markets close. Consequently, the current fear seen in the options market could reverse if no major geopolitical events occur before Monday.

During bearish cycles, traders often rush for the exits at the mere sight of any event that could be deemed negative. Investors should not take Bitcoin’s implied odds at face value, as these metrics are heavily impacted by recent news and headlines. However, expectations could shift more favorably if Iran effectively releases a counter-offer to the US peace proposal.