Bitcoin price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.

Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.

BTC was changing hands near $74,700 in early Asia trading Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day as a 10-day global equity rally paused ahead of next week’s Iran ceasefire deadline. The asset has climbed from the mid-$60,000s through March and April despite persistently negative funding, meaning shorts have been paying longs for weeks while price continued to grind higher.

Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short holders in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When rates go negative, shorts pay longs — a condition that only develops when speculative positioning is tilted heavily against price. The 7-day moving average rate has dropped to approximately -0.005%, per Glassnode data, a reading last seen at the FTX crash bottom in late 2022.

“Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” Reis-Faria said. “If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.” He targets $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the short base unwinds, citing buy pressure from large corporate accumulators as the force most likely to trigger forced liquidations across the short base.

Every prior historical episode of similar funding extremes has aligned with a local price floor. March 2020, mid-2021, the FTX collapse in late 2022, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the Liberation Day selloff in April 2025 all featured deeply negative funding that resolved with sharp recoveries. For traders tracking the ceasefire hopes around the April 22 deadline as a timing catalyst, this historical pattern reinforces a bullish view on the near-term setup.

What Could Prevent a Squeeze Rally

On-chain data introduces a structural counterpoint. Many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their acquisition cost, meaning any squeeze-driven rally that approaches their cost basis could generate significant sell pressure from holders who bought in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during 2025’s peak accumulation period. This is sometimes called the “wall of worried holders” — participants who will not be forced to sell but will sell when they can.

A rally to $125,000 would require absorbing that supply sequentially, moving through each cost-basis cluster without capitulating. The oversold signals visible in on-chain and technical data support the bullish case structurally, but the distribution of underwater holders complicates a clean short-squeeze-to-new-high scenario without a strong macro catalyst doing the heavy lifting.

The Catalyst Calendar

Three events over the next two weeks will resolve the current setup. The April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry is the first: a credible extension removes the geopolitical tail risk that has capped risk-asset rallies since February, while a breakdown would likely push BTC toward the $68,000 structural support floor. The FOMC meets April 28-29, and any dovish signal from Chair Powell would reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. A confirmed CLARITY Act committee date in early May would add a third potential trigger specific to the digital asset market.

Russia’s government submitted a bill to its parliament’s lower house in an effort to amend the country’s legal code to attach criminal liability for crypto services offered without regulatory approval or licensing.

In a draft law sent to the State Duma on Friday, Russian lawmakers proposed that entities “carrying out activities related to the organization of digital currency circulation,” that operate without a license from Russia’s central bank, could be subject to criminal liability.

Without registration with the Bank of Russia, individuals could face up to $4,000 in fines and up to four years in prison, or more severe penalties if part of an organized group.

“The same act committed by an organized group, or involving the infliction of damage or the extraction of income on a particularly large scale, would be punishable by compulsory labor for up to five years or imprisonment for up to seven years,” the bill’s text said.

The bill also proposes a “fine of up to 1 million rubles [$13,100] or an amount equal to the convicted person’s salary or other income for a period of up to five years.”

The draft law followed a package of bills initially proposed in March that included criminal penalties for illegal crypto miners, but the most recent legislation included details on fines and potential prison time for any unregistered digital asset services.

According to Russian media outlet RBC, the country’s Supreme Court said that the crypto bill lacks “reasoned justification” for criminal penalties.

The court said that the measure was “premature” until Russia enacted its “Digital Currency and Digital Rights law,” expected to go into effect in July. If the bill passes it would give Russia’s government more control and oversight over the crypto industry.

Related: At least a dozen crypto entities attacked since Drift Protocol hack

Russian crypto exchange Grinex still reeling from $14 million hack

Grinex, a Russia-based crypto exchange currently being sanctioned, halted trading for users on Thursday after losing more than 1 billion rubles — about $13.7 million — in a hack it suspected was carried out by “entities of hostile states.”

The company said it forwarded relevant information on the attack to law enforcement agencies and filed a criminal complaint.

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