Crypto World
Elon Musk Fuels ASTEROID Crypto Frenzy, Scores 500X Windfall For One Trader
Asteroid Shiba (ASTEROID) gained over 45,000% in 24 hours while Asteroid Bot (ASTEROIDBOT) rallied 15% in the same timeframe. The rally followed Elon Musk’s response to a viral post linking the token to SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn mission.
The move started after radio host Glenn Beck shared Liv Perrotto’s story. The teenager designed a plush Shiba Inu named Asteroid.
Musk’s Reply Ignites Speculative Trading
The Asteroid flew as the zero-gravity indicator on SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn mission in 2024. Perrotto passed away from cancer, leaving behind a list of unanswered questions for Musk.
Among her questions was whether Asteroid could become SpaceX’s official mascot.
Musk responded with “Will answer shortly,” and speculative traders moved within minutes. One meme coin, ASTEROID, rallied by 44,923% while another, and was trading for $0.00005668 as of this writing.
Elsewhere, blockchain analytics firm Arkham identified several traders who profited from the move.
- One swapped 1 ETH into an ASTEROID token position now worth nearly $474,000 within three hours.
- Another early buyer generated $210,000 in profit while still holding $84,000 in the token.
- A dormant holder who spent $21,390 buying ASTEROID at launch in September 2024 has not moved tokens for three months. That position is now worth roughly $370,000.
Sell-Off Risk Grows
The concentration of gains among a small number of wallets raises the prospect of a sharp correction. If early holders begin taking profit, the thin liquidity typical of low-cap meme tokens could amplify any downturn.
Meanwhile, Asteroid Bot (ASTEROIDBOT), a separate token riding the same narrative, posted a more modest 15% gain
.Whether Musk’s eventual answer to Perrotto’s questions sustains or deflates the speculative interest remains the key variable for ASTEROID’s near-term direction.
The post Elon Musk Fuels ASTEROID Crypto Frenzy, Scores 500X Windfall For One Trader appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Singapore Gulf Bank Launches In-Bank Settlement for USDC on Solana
The bank says it plans to add other stablecoins across multiple blockchains to the service.
Singapore Gulf Bank (SGB) announced on Friday that it has launched a stablecoin mint and redeem service, allowing its corporate and high-net-worth clients to convert directly between fiat and stablecoins from within their SGB accounts.
The in-bank stablecoin settlement service, which SGB first announced in February, at launch supports USDC on Solana for transactions above $100,000.
The launch follows SGB’s recent admission to the Circle Alliance Program, Circle’s global network of USDC-focused partners.
Per SGB’s announcement, the bank plans to add support for other stablecoins, including USDT, USDe and USDG, across multiple chains in the future.
To mark the launch, SGB is waiving gas and bank fees for minting and redeeming on the Solana blockchain for a limited period, with volume-based rewards to follow. Stablecoin minting and redemption are integrated into SGB Net, the bank’s proprietary clearing network, allowing funds to move between on-chain and off-chain environments within a regulated framework.
CEO Shawn Chan framed the launch as a response to real client pain points: cross-border capital movement has become a key constraint on growth, and embedding stablecoins into banking removes that friction:
“By integrating stablecoin mint and redeem directly into the banking environment, we enable real-time movement between fiat and digital assets, improving cash flow, payments, and treasury management. We are building the bank for a borderless world, where businesses and individuals operate across jurisdictions”
As Business Times reported, SGB is a fully licensed digital wholesale bank based in Bahrain, founded by Singapore-based private investment firm Whampoa Group and backed by Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund, Mumtalakat.
The launch arrives as stablecoins cement their role in institutional finance. As The Defiant reported, stablecoins stopped being “crypto products” in 2025 and started acting like infrastructure, with enterprise adoption accelerating across payments, treasury, and settlement.
Last fall, Coinbase and Citigroup teamed up to help Citi’s institutional clients use stablecoins to move money faster without abandoning traditional banking systems, pairing Coinbase’s digital asset infrastructure with Citi’s payments network spanning 94 markets.
Earlier this month, Circle launched Circle Payments Network (CPN) Managed Payments, a stablecoin settlement solution designed to let TradFi firms use stablecoin rails for fiat transactions, abstracting complexity for the firms.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Crypto World
X Generates $1 Billion in Trading Volume Days After Launching Cashtags Feature: X
X’s new cashtags trading pilot for stocks and crypto reached an estimated $1 billion in volume within days of its Tuesday launch.
X generated approximately $1 billion in global trading volume following the launch of its cashtags feature on Tuesday, according to Head of Product Nikita Bier. The feature enables users to trade stocks and cryptocurrency directly on the platform, converting social engagement into financial execution at scale. The milestone was reached within days of the pilot going live.
The rapid adoption underscores X’s ability to leverage its massive user base for financial trading activity. The cashtags pilot represents a significant expansion of X’s presence in the retail and institutional trading landscape, combining social networking infrastructure with direct market access for crypto and equities.
Sources: WatcherGuru | BSCNews
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
Crypto World
HBAR and XLM Lead Index
HBAR price prediction improved Friday as Hedera gained 1.4% and Stellar’s XLM added 1.5% to top the CoinDesk 20 performance update, placing the index at 2,125.52, up 0.3% from Thursday’s close, with just 9 of 20 assets trading higher as Bitcoin approached the $76,000 resistance level that has capped every major rally attempt in 2026.
Summary
- Laggards included Near Protocol at -2.3% and Polkadot at -1.6%, reflecting the selective nature of Friday’s session as capital rotated toward payment-layer and enterprise-backed tokens rather than broad altcoin names.
- HBAR’s 24-hour trading volume surged 57.6% to over $103 million, a signal of directional positioning ahead of the April 22 Iran ceasefire deadline that has driven selective rotation toward utility networks with institutional governance backing.
- Stellar’s Protocol 26 “Yardstick” testnet launched April 16, with a mainnet governance vote scheduled for May 6, while LOBSTR Wallet added XRP Ledger support for 1.5 million users the same day, deepening cross-chain utility between two payment-focused ecosystems.
HBAR price prediction improved Friday as both tokens outperformed the CoinDesk 20’s 0.3% gain by a wide margin, with Hedera rising 1.4% and Stellar 1.5% against an index that saw 11 of 20 assets move flat or lower. Bitcoin’s push toward $76,000 drove selective altcoin rotation, and both HBAR and XLM carry the profile that tends to lead early in such moves — payment-layer infrastructure with institutional governance and regulatory credibility.
Near Protocol fell 2.3% as the session’s worst performer, and Polkadot dropped 1.6%. General-purpose Layer-1 networks with slower development cadences underperformed, while tokens with specific near-term catalysts and enterprise backing attracted the session’s marginal buying.
Hedera’s volume surge to $103 million — up 57.6% on the day — signals targeted positioning rather than passive drift alongside BTC. Several catalysts have built in the ecosystem since March. McLaren Racing joined the Hedera Governing Council in March 2026 as a full voting member, committing to digital collectibles programs across the F1 and IndyCar seasons and giving the network access to a global sports audience.
The Canary Capital HBAR ETF, trading on Nasdaq under the ticker HBR since October 28, 2025, accumulated $93.21 million in cumulative ETF inflows by early 2026, making HBAR the third cryptocurrency to achieve US spot ETF status. Hedera’s governing council includes Google, IBM, Boeing, NVIDIA, and ServiceNow. The network has processed over $10 billion in real-world asset settlements including tokenized bonds and cross-border payments, giving it a fundamental utility base that most mid-cap altcoins lack.
Analyst JAVON MARKS noted this week that a falling wedge breakout pattern forming across altcoin charts is “starting to look familiar to past cycles,” writing: “This looks like the beginning stages of a 2026 alt-season.” Payment-layer and enterprise-governance tokens with institutional backing tend to lead early rotation before broader index participation catches up.
What Drove XLM Higher
Stellar’s move comes off three back-to-back catalysts in five days. Protocol 26 “Yardstick” launched on testnet April 16, introducing benchmarking tools and improved host functions designed to enhance network performance and developer capabilities, with a mainnet governance vote scheduled for May 6. LOBSTR Wallet, serving over 1.5 million users, added XRP Ledger support the same day, enabling Stellar users to manage XRP, RLUSD, and XLM in a single interface.
On April 13, Stellar integrated the EURAU stablecoin, a MiCAR-compliant euro-denominated instrument that extends the network’s reach into European institutional settlement, a market where Hedera has also been expanding through Archax’s tokenized UK gilt integrations.
What to Watch Before April 22
Both tokens remain directionally tied to Bitcoin and the macro calendar. The April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry is the nearest binary. A credible extension maintains the risk-on environment that is driving altcoin rotation; a breakdown would likely push HBAR and XLM toward their 2026 trading lows. NEAR Protocol’s 2.3% decline Thursday may reflect early positioning for a more cautious outcome. Any BTC daily close above $76,000 would be the clearest short-term bullish signal for broader altcoin follow-through.
Crypto World
XRP Price Prediction: Is $8.00 Still Possible After the Standard Chartered Slash? AlphaPepe Offers a High-Speed 150x Alternative
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick slashed the bank’s 2026 XRP target by 65%, from $8 to $2.80, the deepest cut across every asset in the bank’s crypto coverage. The revision did not eliminate $8. It reclassified it. What was the base case became the upside scenario, contingent on the CLARITY Act passing completely before year end rather than simply advancing through committee. XRP trades at $1.38 with $119.6 million in weekly institutional inflows and open interest approaching $1 billion at deeply negative funding rates. The XRP price prediction to $8 is alive but the conditions around it just doubled. While the market recalculates those odds, AlphaPepe is offering 150x math from Stage 13 at $0.01494 with over $870,000 raised, 7,700 wallets inside, and a Q2 listing timeline that requires zero legislative votes.
Is $8 XRP Still Possible After the Revision?
Kendrick’s logic is transparent. The CLARITY Act stall risk was the single variable that moved $8 from probable to conditional. The original $8 target assumed the bill would pass completely through Congress before December 2026. The revised $2.80 target assumes only constructive committee progress in late April without full Senate passage. Both targets sit on the same institutional framework. The difference is legislative probability.
The $2.80 base case requires a macro recovery and the Senate Banking Committee to advance the markup, which carries nearly 70% odds on Polymarket. The $8 upside case requires the full bill to become law, ETF inflows to scale from $1.44 billion toward Kendrick’s projected $4 to $8 billion range, and Ripple’s RLUSD infrastructure to reach institutional settlement adoption.
From $1.38, the $2.80 target is a 103% return. The $8 target is a 480% return. Both are credible under their respective conditions. Neither is fast. The $2.80 path stretches through Q4 2026. The $8 path may extend into 2027 if the CLARITY Act faces procedural delays. The XRP price prediction remains one of the strongest large-cap altcoin theses in the market. It is also one of the most legislation-dependent.
AlphaPepe Offers 150x on a Timeline the Senate Cannot Delay
The 150x target is direct. AlphaPepe at $0.01494 reaching $2.241 delivers 150x. That level sits within the mid-range of independent analyst projections between $1.50 and $3.50. The difference between waiting for the CLARITY Act and entering AlphaPepe is the difference between a return that depends on five Senate hurdles and one that depends on a Q2 DEX launch already on the calendar.
AlphaSwap is the product that makes the comparison asymmetric. A cross-chain AI DEX already live, flagging contract exploits before execution, mapping whale wallet movements, and collecting trading fees now. The engineer behind the code shipped 500 million transactions across Shibarium mainnet before this protocol was written. A flawless 10/10 BlockSAFU audit backs the contract. Supply capped at 1 billion. Instant delivery. Zero vesting. Stakers earn 85% APR while the listing window approaches. Tier 1 CEX debut follows.
Over $870,000 raised from 7,700 wallets with 100 new addresses arriving daily. Stage 13 at $0.01494 with the price climbing every few days and rising again when stages fill. A $1,500 entry secures 100,401 tokens. At $1.50 that becomes $150,601. At $3.50 it crosses $351,403. Buyers at $1,000 or above can use code ALPHA30 for a 30% bonus. The XRP price prediction needs a Senate vote for $8. AlphaPepe needs a launch date for 150x.
$8 Is Possible. 150x Is Faster.
The Standard Chartered slash did not kill $8 XRP. It moved the goalposts. The path is longer and more conditional than it was in January. The AlphaPepe presale at $0.01494 with a live AI DEX and $870,000 raised is not subject to those same goalposts. Stage 13 is filling and the next price level approaches.
Click To Visit AlphaPepe Official Website To Enter The Presale
FAQs
Is $8 XRP still possible after the Standard Chartered cut?
Yes. Kendrick reclassified $8 as the upside scenario requiring full CLARITY Act passage and ETF inflows reaching $4 to $8 billion. The base case is now $2.80.
What does 150x mean for AlphaPepe?
At $0.01494, a 150x places the token at $2.241. Analyst projections of $1.50 to $3.50 put that within the mid-range forecast ahead of the Q2 DEX launch.
Is the AlphaPepe presale still open?
Stage 13 at $0.01494 with over $870,000 raised and 7,700 holders. Instant delivery, no vesting, Q2 launch approaching.
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Crypto World
Wrapped XRP Now Available Across Major Solana Apps: Solana
Solana announced wXRP is live on Titan Exchange, Real, Phantom, Jupiter, and Meteora, expanding cross-chain asset availability on the blockchain.
Solana announced Friday that wrapped XRP (wXRP) is now available across multiple major Solana ecosystem applications, including Titan Exchange, Real, Phantom wallet, Jupiter aggregator, and Meteora. The listing enables Solana users to access XRP-backed assets natively within the Solana network through these popular trading, wallet, and DEX platforms.
The launch expands interoperability between the XRP Ledger and Solana blockchain, allowing users to trade and hold wrapped versions of the Ripple-native asset. wXRP bridges assets across chains, enabling broader liquidity and market access for XRP holders seeking exposure within the Solana DeFi ecosystem.
Sources: Solana
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
Crypto World
Rep. Sheri Biggs Discloses $250,000 Bitcoin ETF Buy Amid Reserve Bill Push
Rep. Sheri Biggs (R-SC) disclosed a purchase of $100,001 to $250,000 in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) on March 4, made through her spouse’s professionally managed account at UBS Financial Services.
The filing, submitted to the House Clerk on April 16, landed within the STOCK Act’s 45-day reporting window. It arrives as the Senate weighs legislation that could turn the federal government into a large-scale Bitcoin (BTC) buyer.
Biggs Adds to Growing Bitcoin Position
The March trade marks at least the second six-figure IBIT purchase by the Biggs household. In July 2025, her husband acquired between $100,001 and $250,000 of the same ETF roughly one week before pro-crypto legislation passed the House.
That earlier transaction was disclosed months late, violating the STOCK Act’s 45-day rule and triggering a $200 penalty. Trackers noted IBIT gained about 12% in the three months following the buy.
The same April filing also listed two smaller purchases of Apollo Debt Solutions BDC and a sale of Oaktree Strategic Credit Fund holdings, signaling a broader portfolio shift toward crypto and debt exposure.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill Looms in Senate
The timing draws additional scrutiny because S.954, the BITCOIN Act of 2025, remains before the Senate Banking Committee.
Introduced by Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), the bill would direct the Treasury to acquire one million BTC over five years and store them in a decentralized network of secure federal facilities with a 20-year minimum hold.
Related efforts continue to build momentum. The Mined in America Act, introduced March 30 by Sens.
Cassidy and Lummis, would codify President Trump’s executive order establishing the reserve and let certified U.S. miners sell newly mined BTC directly to the Treasury.
If passed, these measures could make the federal government one of the largest holders of Bitcoin globally, a catalyst for assets like IBIT, which already manages roughly $55 billion and commands about 70% market share among U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Congressional members remain legally permitted to trade stocks and ETFs under current rules. However, repeated timing controversies have fueled bipartisan calls for a full trading ban.
The post Rep. Sheri Biggs Discloses $250,000 Bitcoin ETF Buy Amid Reserve Bill Push appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
TradFi Assets Reach 9% of Binance Futures Volume Amid Rising Market Volatility
TLDR:
- TradFi assets now make up 9% of Binance futures volume, signaling a shift in trading behavior
- Rising stock market volatility is pushing traders to explore crypto-linked derivative markets
- S&P 500 drawdowns show that corrections are frequent, even during extended bull market phases
- Faster recoveries after 2010 reflect changing market dynamics and stronger policy responses
Global trading patterns are shifting as traditional financial assets gain ground within crypto derivatives markets. Recent data shows a steady rise in cross-market activity, while long-term equity drawdowns continue to shape how traders assess risk and timing across asset classes.
TradFi Assets Gain Ground in Crypto Futures
CryptoQuant reported that traditional financial assets now account for about 9% of Binance futures volume. The update came through a post shared by CryptoQuant, citing analyst JA Maartun. The data points to a gradual shift in trader focus beyond digital assets.
The tweet noted that rising volatility in stock markets is drawing more attention from crypto traders. As a result, exposure to equities through derivatives platforms is increasing. This trend reflects how trading strategies are expanding across asset classes.
Market participants are no longer focused only on altcoins or major cryptocurrencies. Instead, they are engaging with broader financial instruments. This shift suggests a blending of strategies between crypto-native and traditional market participants.
At the same time, volatility in equities appears to play a key role in this transition. When stock markets become unstable, traders often seek opportunities in derivative products. Binance futures markets now serve as one such venue for this activity.
This movement also aligns with the growing overlap between crypto infrastructure and traditional finance. As platforms expand their offerings, traders gain easier access to diversified instruments. That accessibility continues to reshape trading behavior.
S&P 500 Drawdowns Reflect Market Stress Cycles
Alongside this trend, long-term data on the S&P 500 provides context for how traders respond to volatility. The chart shared in the update tracks drawdowns from all-time highs between 2000 and 2026. It presents a clear view of market stress periods.
Major downturns stand out across the timeline. The early 2000s dot-com crash saw a drawdown near 45%. The global financial crisis pushed losses close to 50%, marking the deepest decline. Meanwhile, the 2020 pandemic shock caused a rapid drop of about 35%.
More recent movements show different patterns. The 2022 bear market recorded a decline near 25%, but it lasted longer. In contrast, post-2020 recoveries have been faster, often supported by policy responses and liquidity measures.
The data also shows that smaller corrections occur frequently. Declines between 5% and 15% appear even during strong market phases. These movements are part of normal volatility rather than signs of structural breakdown.
Another pattern emerges in recovery timing. Before 2010, markets often took several years to regain previous highs. Since then, recoveries have become quicker, especially after major shocks. This shift reflects changing market dynamics and intervention tools.
The chart further indicates that markets spend more time near peak levels than in deep declines. Most of the timeline stays close to all-time highs. This pattern suggests a tendency toward recovery rather than prolonged downturns.
Periods of calm also alternate with bursts of volatility. Stable phases, such as 2016 and 2017, are followed by more turbulent conditions. These cycles show that risk does not appear evenly over time.
Taken together, the rise in TradFi participation on crypto platforms and the history of equity drawdowns present a connected narrative. Traders are adapting to volatility across markets while using new tools to manage exposure.
Crypto World
Russia Pushes Bill to Criminalize Unregistered Crypto Services
Russia’s lower house of parliament received a draft law aimed at tightening criminal accountability for crypto services operating without regulatory approval. The legislation would attach criminal liability to entities that organize digital currency circulation without a Bank of Russia license, signaling a tougher stance as Moscow moves to regulate the sector ahead of broader digital-asset rules.
Under the draft, individuals who provide crypto-related services without registration with the central bank could face fines of up to 4,000 USD and up to four years in prison. More severe penalties would apply to organized groups or cases involving large-scale damage or illicit gains. The bill envisions compulsory labor for up to five years or imprisonment for as long as seven years when the act is committed by an organized group or causes significant harm. A separate provision would allow fines of up to 1 million rubles (approximately 13,100 USD) or profit-linked penalties for up to five years, depending on the circumstances.
Key takeaways
- The draft law would criminalize unregistered crypto-asset services, expanding the regulatory net beyond existing licensing regimes.
- Penalties scale with the nature of the violation—from individuals facing modest fines and potential prison time to harsher outcomes for organized groups or large-scale wrongdoing.
- The move aligns with Russia’s broader push to regulate digital currencies, but comes while a broader “Digital Currency and Digital Rights” framework is still being formalized and set to take effect in July.
- Russia’s Supreme Court has questioned the necessity of criminal penalties in the absence of the accompanying digital-currency law, calling the measure premature.
- In parallel, Russia faces high-profile crypto-security incidents, such as the Grinex exchange hack, underscoring the real-world risks for traders and exchanges as oversight tightens.
- Earlier in March, a package of crypto regulation proposals included penalties for illegal miners, indicating a multi-pronged regulatory approach that could shape market dynamics going forward.
Regulatory tightening and the licensing regime
The core of the draft law is a licensing regime led by the Bank of Russia. By tying criminal liability to activities that “carry out the organization of digital currency circulation” without a license, lawmakers appear to be moving beyond civil or administrative remedies and into criminal enforcement. The intent, as described in the draft, is to deter unregistered providers and bring a centralized oversight mechanism to what Moscow views as a growing sector with potential for misuse.
Specifically, individuals operating without registration could be fined as much as 4,000 USD and face up to four years in prison. If the operation involves an organized group or yields particularly large profits or damages, penalties would intensify to compulsory labor for up to five years or imprisonment for up to seven years. In addition, the bill contemplates fines up to 1 million rubles or an income-based penalty for up to five years, depending on the case’s particulars.
The legislation is part of a broader trend in Russia toward formalizing oversight of crypto activities, including licensing requirements and centralized supervision. It follows a March package that proposed criminal penalties for illegal crypto mining, signaling a comprehensive framework that would address both exchange activity and mining under a unified regulatory lens.
Judicial cautions and timing concerns
Even as lawmakers push for stricter enforcement, Russia’s Supreme Court has voiced concerns about the bill’s approach. In recent remarks reported by RBC, the court suggested that criminal penalties lack a “reasoned justification” and argued that the measure could be premature before the full regulatory architecture is in place. The court noted the forthcoming Digital Currency and Digital Rights law, expected to take effect in July, would set the groundwork for how digital assets are treated in Russia and how enforcement should be structured.
Observers note the tension between urgency on the legislative side and the Court’s call for measured steps that align with a coherent regulatory framework. If the Digital Currency and Digital Rights law does pass and comes into force on schedule, it could provide the statutory basis for the more punitive powers envisaged in the draft law. Until then, advocates of a cautious, rules-based approach argue that criminal penalties should wait for a clearer legal foundation and for the details of licensing, supervision, and consumer protections to be finalized.
As Russia moves toward more formalized oversight, the debate underscores a key question for the market: what level of risk will participants bear while the regulatory framework remains in flux? For crypto services, the path to compliance may require not only licensing but a broader readiness to meet centralized data-sharing, capital-adequacy, and anti-money-laundering standards that critics say could raise barriers to entry and reshape the competitive landscape.
Grinex hack as a reminder of operational risk
Against the backdrop of regulatory maneuvering, Russia-based exchange Grinex has been dealing with a high-profile security incident. The platform halted trading after reporting losses exceeding 1 billion rubles (roughly 13.7 million USD) in a hack it suspects involved “hostile state” entities. Grinex has since alerted law enforcement and filed a criminal complaint as it works to resolve the incident and safeguard user funds.
The Grinex event highlights the real-world risks that exchanges and users face even as regulators step up scrutiny. Security incidents can complicate compliance efforts by drawing attention from authorities and potentially increasing the appetite for stringent enforcement. The parallel tracks of tightening regulation and cybersecurity stress-testing may influence how quickly market participants seek licensing, improve risk controls, and pursue clearer governance structures.
In the same vein, Russian media coverage and industry reporting have connected these regulatory developments to broader shifts in the country’s crypto landscape. The ongoing discourse reflects a market watching closely for a coherent rulebook that balances innovation with investor protection and national-security considerations.
What to watch next
The most immediate milestones are July’s implementation of the Digital Currency and Digital Rights framework and the legal clarifications that will follow. If the new law enshrines the central-bank licensing regime and criminal penalties for unregistered services, market participants could see a rapid shift toward greater formalization, with more entities seeking compliance measures and registration to avoid potential penalties.
Market observers will also be watching for further clarifications on enforcement practices, including how authorities interpret “organization of digital currency circulation” and what constitutes the threshold for “large-scale” offenses. As the Grinex case unfolds, regulators may use real-world incidents to calibrate enforcement intensity and to demonstrate the practical costs of cyber breaches within a tightly regulated environment.
For investors and builders in Russia’s crypto ecosystem, the current phase signals both caution and opportunity. While the tightening stance could raise compliance costs and limit gray-market activity, it may also foster a more stable regulatory climate that could eventually attract legitimate businesses and institutional participation. The coming weeks will be telling as lawmakers lay out the legislative language and courts weigh the appropriate balance between enforcement and innovation.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $125K Target
Bitcoin price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.
Summary
- BTC was trading near $74,700 in Asian morning hours Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day, with the 10-day global equity rally pausing ahead of the April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry.
- The 7-day moving average funding rate dropped to approximately -0.005% per Glassnode data, last seen during the FTX crash bottom in late 2022, with every prior historical episode of similar funding extremes — March 2020, mid-2021, August 2024 — aligning with local price lows.
- On-chain data shows many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their cost basis, meaning a squeeze-driven rally could face material sell pressure from holders who acquired BTC in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.
BTC was changing hands near $74,700 in early Asia trading Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day as a 10-day global equity rally paused ahead of next week’s Iran ceasefire deadline. The asset has climbed from the mid-$60,000s through March and April despite persistently negative funding, meaning shorts have been paying longs for weeks while price continued to grind higher.
Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short holders in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When rates go negative, shorts pay longs — a condition that only develops when speculative positioning is tilted heavily against price. The 7-day moving average rate has dropped to approximately -0.005%, per Glassnode data, a reading last seen at the FTX crash bottom in late 2022.
“Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” Reis-Faria said. “If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.” He targets $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the short base unwinds, citing buy pressure from large corporate accumulators as the force most likely to trigger forced liquidations across the short base.
Every prior historical episode of similar funding extremes has aligned with a local price floor. March 2020, mid-2021, the FTX collapse in late 2022, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the Liberation Day selloff in April 2025 all featured deeply negative funding that resolved with sharp recoveries. For traders tracking the ceasefire hopes around the April 22 deadline as a timing catalyst, this historical pattern reinforces a bullish view on the near-term setup.
What Could Prevent a Squeeze Rally
On-chain data introduces a structural counterpoint. Many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their acquisition cost, meaning any squeeze-driven rally that approaches their cost basis could generate significant sell pressure from holders who bought in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during 2025’s peak accumulation period. This is sometimes called the “wall of worried holders” — participants who will not be forced to sell but will sell when they can.
A rally to $125,000 would require absorbing that supply sequentially, moving through each cost-basis cluster without capitulating. The oversold signals visible in on-chain and technical data support the bullish case structurally, but the distribution of underwater holders complicates a clean short-squeeze-to-new-high scenario without a strong macro catalyst doing the heavy lifting.
The Catalyst Calendar
Three events over the next two weeks will resolve the current setup. The April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry is the first: a credible extension removes the geopolitical tail risk that has capped risk-asset rallies since February, while a breakdown would likely push BTC toward the $68,000 structural support floor. The FOMC meets April 28-29, and any dovish signal from Chair Powell would reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. A confirmed CLARITY Act committee date in early May would add a third potential trigger specific to the digital asset market.
Crypto World
Russia Introduces Bill To Criminalize Unregistered Crypto Services
Russia’s government submitted a bill to its parliament’s lower house in an effort to amend the country’s legal code to attach criminal liability for crypto services offered without regulatory approval or licensing.
In a draft law sent to the State Duma on Friday, Russian lawmakers proposed that entities “carrying out activities related to the organization of digital currency circulation,” that operate without a license from Russia’s central bank, could be subject to criminal liability.
Without registration with the Bank of Russia, individuals could face up to $4,000 in fines and up to four years in prison, or more severe penalties if part of an organized group.
“The same act committed by an organized group, or involving the infliction of damage or the extraction of income on a particularly large scale, would be punishable by compulsory labor for up to five years or imprisonment for up to seven years,” the bill’s text said.
The bill also proposes a “fine of up to 1 million rubles [$13,100] or an amount equal to the convicted person’s salary or other income for a period of up to five years.”
The draft law followed a package of bills initially proposed in March that included criminal penalties for illegal crypto miners, but the most recent legislation included details on fines and potential prison time for any unregistered digital asset services.
According to Russian media outlet RBC, the country’s Supreme Court said that the crypto bill lacks “reasoned justification” for criminal penalties.
The court said that the measure was “premature” until Russia enacted its “Digital Currency and Digital Rights law,” expected to go into effect in July. If the bill passes it would give Russia’s government more control and oversight over the crypto industry.
Related: At least a dozen crypto entities attacked since Drift Protocol hack
Russian crypto exchange Grinex still reeling from $14 million hack
Grinex, a Russia-based crypto exchange currently being sanctioned, halted trading for users on Thursday after losing more than 1 billion rubles — about $13.7 million — in a hack it suspected was carried out by “entities of hostile states.”
The company said it forwarded relevant information on the attack to law enforcement agencies and filed a criminal complaint.
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