Crypto World
Ceasefire or Smoke? Axios Iran Deal Report Sparks Market Manipulation Claims
A report by Axios has ignited a storm of debate across geopolitical and financial circles, after claims emerged of a potential 45-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
The report cites unnamed U.S., Israeli, and regional sources describing a “last-ditch push” to halt escalating conflict through a temporary truce that could pave the way for a permanent agreement.
Doubts Mount as Iran Rejects Temporary Truce and Verification Remains Elusive
According to the report, mediators from countries including Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are working on a two-phase proposal. The first phase would involve a 45-day ceasefire (possibly extendable) during which broader negotiations would take place.
The second phase would aim for a comprehensive deal addressing nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and a formal end to hostilities.
The proposal reportedly includes indirect communications between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
However, even within the report, sources caution that the chances of securing a deal within the next 48 hours remain “slim,” particularly as a looming U.S. deadline threatens further military escalation.
Despite the headline-grabbing claims, Reuters has stated it was unable to independently verify the existence of such negotiations.
While Reuters acknowledged that a Pakistani ceasefire framework may have been circulated, it emphasized the absence of official confirmation from either Washington or Tehran.
Iranian officials, in particular, have maintained a firm stance, signaling reluctance toward any temporary arrangement without guarantees of a lasting peace.
Market Manipulation At Play?
This lack of verification has fueled widespread skepticism online, with some questioning the timing and intent of the story.
Some analysts and social media users suggested the report may have been strategically released ahead of Monday market trading, potentially influencing oil prices and broader financial sentiment.
Critics pointed to a pattern of similar reports in recent weeks that were later denied by Iranian officials, raising concerns about market sensitivity to unverified geopolitical developments.
Iran’s position appears consistent: it has publicly rejected short-term ceasefires tied to deadlines or pressure, instead demanding firm guarantees against future military action.
Without such assurances, officials suggest, any temporary truce would merely delay further conflict rather than resolve it.
The controversy highlights a broader challenge in modern conflict reporting: the collision of anonymous sourcing, rapid information cycles, and market implications.
As tensions remain high and deadlines approach, the truth behind the reported negotiations may soon become clearer.
The post Ceasefire or Smoke? Axios Iran Deal Report Sparks Market Manipulation Claims appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Key Takeaways
- Mizuho Securities upgraded Dell’s price objective to $215 from $180, maintaining its Outperform designation.
- Projected market share for Dell in AI servers is expected to climb from 19% in 2025 to 25% by the end of 2029.
- Super Micro (SMCI) saw its target reduced to $25 from $33, primarily due to regulatory challenges rather than demand concerns.
- Cloud service providers are expected to spend $689 billion in capex during 2026, representing a 64% increase from the previous year.
- The AI server market is anticipated to reach $862 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 44% starting from 2024.
Mizuho Securities opened the trading week with an optimistic assessment of Dell, increasing its price objective to $215 from a previous $180 target while maintaining its Outperform rating. This revision signals strengthening confidence that Dell stands ready to secure an expanding portion of the rapidly growing AI server marketplace.
Analyst Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho highlighted increasing capital investments from leading technology giants as a primary catalyst. Anticipated capital expenditure from cloud service providers reaches $689 billion for 2026, marking a 64% annual increase, with projections for 2027 consensus climbing to $811 billion.
Dell appears positioned as a major winner from this investment surge. The company’s AI server backlog currently stands at approximately $85 billion spanning five quarters, with Mizuho’s updated forecasts estimating AI server orders reaching $53 billion during fiscal 2027 and $68 billion in fiscal 2028 — revised upward from earlier projections of $50 billion and $61 billion respectively.
Shares have advanced 39% year-to-date and soared 148% over the trailing twelve months, currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 and a PEG ratio of 0.53, which Mizuho considers appealing given the anticipated growth trajectory.
Explosive Growth in AI Infrastructure Market
Mizuho elevated its 2029 AI server shipment projection to 5.67 million units, up significantly from its earlier estimate of 3.67 million units. Total spending on AI servers is forecasted to hit $862 billion by 2029, compared to approximately $140 billion in 2024 — representing a remarkable 44% compound annual growth rate.
Demand extends beyond hyperscale operators. Smaller cloud service providers, corporate enterprises, and government-sponsored data centers are all anticipated to expand their server infrastructure as agentic artificial intelligence applications proliferate. Rakesh observed that “all key customers indicate continued willingness to stand up additional AI server clusters.”
Dell’s competitive position in AI servers is forecast to strengthen from 19% market share in 2025 to 25% by 2029, capturing territory from Super Micro and Taiwan-based manufacturers such as Foxconn and Quanta Computer.
Evercore ISI independently increased its Dell price target to $205, also sustaining an Outperform rating, pointing to sustained strength in CPU-based server demand.
Regulatory Issues Weigh on Super Micro
Super Micro faced contrasting circumstances. Mizuho retained its Neutral stance on SMCI and lowered its price target to $25 from $33 — though the reduction stems from legal complications rather than deteriorating AI server market conditions.
Federal authorities filed charges against a Super Micro co-founder and two additional individuals for allegedly redirecting servers to China in violation of export restriction regulations. Super Micro as a corporate entity was not included as a defendant. SMCI shares have declined 21% year-to-date, currently trading near $23.31.
Rakesh acknowledged that immediate legal uncertainties might redirect certain orders toward Dell, but emphasized that Super Micro’s extended-term prospects remain solid considering the robust momentum in AI infrastructure investments.
SMCI increased 0.4% during premarket trading on Monday, while DELL advanced 2.95%.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed holder of Bitcoin, resumed buying BTC last week after reporting no purchases in the final week of March.
Strategy acquired 4,871 Bitcoin (BTC) for $329.9 million last week, according to an 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.
The purchases were made at an average price of $67,718 per coin, below the company’s overall average acquisition price of $75,644. The new acquisitions bring Strategy’s holdings to 766,970 BTC, acquired for a total cost of around $58 billion.
In addition to the purchase update, Strategy also reported its first-quarter financial results, including a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on digital assets and a $2.42 billion deferred tax benefit.
Deferred tax asset offset by valuation allowance as bitcoin trades below cost basis
Strategy said its Bitcoin holdings continue to trade below their cost basis, resulting in the recognition of a deferred tax asset tied to unrealized losses on its digital assets.
As of March 31, the company recorded a $1.73 billion deferred tax asset related to those unrealized losses, which was offset by a corresponding $1.73 billion valuation allowance against the amount.
“Because the fair value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings is below its cost basis, Strategy expects to establish an additional valuation allowance of $0.5 billion against these deferred tax assets,” the company said.
Strategy saw Bitcoin fall below its average purchase price in early February, marking the first time since late 2023 that BTC traded below its cost basis.
Related: 80% of Strategy’s ‘Stretch’ buyers are mom-and-pop investors
Despite the decline, the company has continued accumulating Bitcoin, buying roughly 54,000 BTC since Feb. 2. Strategy was especially aggressive in March, making some of its largest weekly purchases on record during the month, with monthly acquisitions netting 41,362 BTC.
Strategy’s total Bitcoin purchases in the first quarter of 2026 reached 89,316 BTC, with an aggregate spend of approximately $6.3 billion.
$21 billion offering of STRC and a new $21 billion MSTR offering
Strategy mentioned that the company is updating its at-the-market (ATM) program, including a new $21 billion offering of Stretch (STRC) stock and a new $21 billion offering of Common A (MSTR) stock. The company also terminated its prior Strike (STRK) stock offering and launched a new $2.1 billion STRK stock offering.
The amounts available for STRC and MSTR stock reflect the total remaining capacity under both the existing programs and the newly added offerings. Sales under the STRC and MSTR increases may begin once the existing capacity is substantially used, the company said.
During March 30–31, Strategy sold approximately 2.28 million shares of STRC and 582,550 shares of MSTR, generating about $299.3 million in net proceeds. From April 1–5, the company sold an additional 1 million shares of STRC and 593,294 shares of MSTR, raising roughly $174.6 million.
A solo bitcoin miner running roughly 230 terahashes per second of computing power validated block 943,411 on Thursday, pocketing 3.139 BTC worth about $210,000 despite controlling a share of total network hashrate so small it rounds to zero on most dashboards.
The miner was connected to solo.ckpool.org, the anonymous solo mining pool introduced in 2014 that lets operators keep their full block rewards minus a 2% fee. CKpool developer Con Kolivas confirmed the win on X, noting the miner had roughly a 1-in-28,000 chance of finding a block on any given day.
At 230 terahashes, the winning rig represents about 0.00002% of bitcoin’s total estimated hashrate of roughly 1 zetahash per second as of early April. That output is consistent with a small stack of home-scale ASICs running under a single roof rather than a rented cloud burst or industrial operation.
For context, listed miner Riot Platforms alone runs more than 30 exahashes, roughly 130,000 times the hashrate of Thursday’s winner.
The block is the 312th solo win registered on CKpool since its inception, and the first since Feb. 28, ending a 33-day drought. Solo pools have found just 20 bitcoin blocks over the past 12 months, distributing a combined 62.96 BTC. That’s roughly one solo block every 18.7 days on average, with a longest gap of 58 days.
The win continues a pattern that has repeated with surprising regularity through this cycle.
In December, a roughly 270 TH/s miner cleared 1-in-30,000 daily odds to claim a $284,633 reward. In November, a miner running just 6 TH/s, the output of a single old-generation ASIC that would not normally expect to find a block in hundreds of years of continuous mining, beat 1-in-180-million odds to land roughly $265,000.
And in late February, a miner turned approximately $75 of rented cloud hashrate into a $200,000 reward by pointing just 1 petahash at CKpool for a few hours.
Bitcoin is consolidating just below $70,000 with one scheduled event this week capable of breaking the pattern in either direction: the March CPI print dropping April 10 at 8:30 AM ET. The binary is clean, if U.S. inflation data comes in soft enough to shift Federal Reserve language toward cuts, BTC $75K becomes an immediate technical target; if core CPI stays sticky above 0.3% month-over-month, the “higher for longer” scenario reasserts itself, and the path of least resistance points back toward $60,000–$62,000.
The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast – built on late-March data – projects a 0.84% monthly headline surge driven by gasoline prices up 26.2% year-over-year and diesel up 50.4%. That reading, if confirmed, would mark a sharp acceleration from February’s 0.27% headline and would effectively freeze any Federal Reserve pivot conversation through at least mid-summer. Macro crypto trading desks are already pricing two radically different worlds into options flow. Thursday’s print decides which one we’re in.
Bitcoin’s $75K Level: Full Technical Breakdown and Price Scenarios
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reclaim $75,000 or Retreat to $60,000
(Source – BTC USD, TradingView)
Bitcoin is currently rangebound between $65,000 and $71,000, a compression zone that has held for several weeks and is coiling into what chart structure suggests is a decision point. The $73,700 level above is the immediate overhead resistance; above that is the $75,000 psychological ceiling, which has acted as a load-bearing level since BTC’s last failed breakout attempt.
A weekly close above $75,000 on CPI-driven volume would be the first structural confirmation that the bull case is intact.
RSI on the daily is sitting near 53 – neutral, not oversold, which means there’s no technical floor being built from momentum exhaustion alone. The 200-day EMA is converging with the $67,500 support zone, making that level load-bearing in the near term. A daily close below $67,500 opens the door to $62,000, where significant order book depth and prior accumulation structure sit. MVRV ratio remains below 1.5, suggesting the market hasn’t reached the euphoria zone – but that also means on-chain buying pressure isn’t yet dominant enough to generate self-sustaining momentum.
The bull case requires a CPI-triggered risk-on move through $71,000, then a reclaim of $73,700 on sustained volume, with $75,000 as the confirming close. The bear case activates on a hot print: a rejection at $71,000 that cascades back through the 200-day EMA and targets the $60,000–$62,000 whale accumulation zone. For traders already holding, the downside scenario below $66,000 deserves serious risk modeling before Thursday. The single most important level: $71,000. Hold it post-print and the bull case lives. Lose it and $62,000 becomes the next anchor.
Why the April 10 CPI Print Resets the Fed Timeline – and Bitcoin’s Ceiling
The Bitcoin CPI relationship isn’t incidental – it’s mechanical. CPI drives Fed rate expectations, rate expectations drive the dollar and treasury yields, and dollar strength directly compresses institutional appetite for risk assets, including BTC. February’s CPI landed at 2.4% year-over-year with core holding at 2.5% annually for the second consecutive month, driven by shelter costs rising 0.2%. That stickiness kept “higher for longer” as the dominant Fed posture heading into April’s data cycle.
The threshold that matters for a Federal Reserve pivot signal is a core monthly reading at or below 0.2% – anything above 0.3% entrenches current policy and delays the first cut. CME FedWatch currently prices fewer than two cuts for 2025, a dramatic repricing from the four-cut consensus that opened the year. Energy is the wild card: the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast is being driven almost entirely by gasoline and diesel spikes, and the Fed has historically looked through volatile energy components when assessing underlying inflation trends. If headline runs hot but core stays controlled, traders may interpret that as a conditional green light.
March payrolls added 178,000 jobs, with unemployment holding at 4.3% – a labor market that doesn’t scream imminent recession and therefore gives the Fed cover to hold. The April 10 U.S. inflation data release won’t just move Bitcoin on the day; it will recalibrate the entire rate-cut timeline that institutional crypto positioning is built on.
(Source – CoinGlass)
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows from BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have shown direct sensitivity to CPI beats and misses – a hot print tightens that inflow tap immediately.
The post CPI Data Countdown: Why the April 10 Print Is Make or Break for Bitcoin’s $75K Push appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) said it now holds 4.8 million ether (ETH) worth roughly $10.2 billion at current prices, putting the company within reach of its stated goal of accumulating 5% of the total ether supply.
In a Monday statement, the company also said its shares will start trading on the New York Stock Exchange, uplisted from NYSE American, starting April 9.
Bitmine holds 3.98% of ether’s 120.7 million circulating supply, compared with Strategy’s 3.8% of bitcoin’s 20 million. Both companies have turned treasury accumulation into a stock market narrative, and both are buying aggressively as prices decline.
Bitmine acquired 71,252 ETH in the past week, its highest pace of purchases since late December, according to Chairman Tom Lee, who framed the buying as a bet that ether is in “the final stages of the mini-crypto winter.”
Total crypto and cash holdings are now $11.4 billion, including $864 million in cash, 198 BTC, and smaller positions in Beast Industries and Eightco Holdings.
Bitmine’s model diverges from Strategy when it comes to staking, or depositing tokens to help secure the Ethereum blockchain in exchange for a reward. Of the 4.8 million ETH held, 3.33 million are staked through Mavan, the company’s institutional-grade validator network that started operating Monday.
That staked position is worth roughly $7.1 billion and generates $196 million in annualized staking revenue at a 2.78% yield, giving Bitmine a recurring income stream that Strategy’s bitcoin treasury does not have.
At full deployment, when all of Bitmine’s ETH is staked, the company projects $282 million in annual staking rewards.
Lee made a wartime case for ether in the announcement, noting that ETH has gained 6.8% since the Iran conflict began, outperforming the S&P 500 by 1,130 basis points and gold by 1,840 basis points. “ETH is the wartime store of value,” Lee said, a framing that would have been difficult to argue six months ago but has data behind it now.
Bitmine is now the 96th most traded stock in the U.S. with average daily volume of $987 million, ranking between Schlumberger and Adobe. The investor base includes ARK Invest, Founders Fund, Pantera, Galaxy Digital, and Kraken.
TLDR:
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- Tom Lee’s Bitmine acquired 71,252 ETH last week, its highest single-week buying pace since December 2025.
- Bitmine’s total ETH holdings reached 4,803,334 tokens, representing 3.98% of the entire Ethereum supply.
- With 3,334,637 ETH staked at $7.1B, annualized staking revenues have grown to $196 million as of April 2026.
- Bitmine’s combined crypto, cash, and investment holdings reached $11.4B, backed by $864 million in available cash reserves.
- Tom Lee’s Bitmine acquired 71,252 ETH last week, its highest single-week buying pace since December 2025.
Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NYSE American: BMNR) acquired an additional 71,252 ETH last week, pushing total holdings to 4,803,334 ETH.
That figure represents approximately 3.98% of the entire Ethereum supply. Combined crypto, cash, and investment holdings reached $11.4 billion, including $8.64 billion in ETH and $864 million in cash.
With 3,334,637 ETH currently staked at $7.1 billion, Bitmine remains the largest Ethereum treasury in the world.
Weekly ETH Purchase Marks Highest Acquisition Pace Since December 2025
The 71,252 ETH acquired last week marks Bitmine’s fastest weekly buying pace since December 22, 2025. At $2,123 per ETH, the total ETH stack is now valued at approximately $8.64 billion.
Chairman Tom Lee has maintained an accelerated buying schedule over each of the past four consecutive weeks.
Lee attributed the increased pace to a broader market view. He described the current period as the final stages of what he calls a “mini-crypto winter.”
The company sees present prices as an entry opportunity before an anticipated ETH leadership cycle.
Bitmine is now 79% of the way toward its stated target of owning 5% of the total ETH supply. Lee referred to this milestone internally as the “Alchemy of 5%,” a goal the company has been pursuing over the past nine months.
“In the past week, we acquired 71,252 ETH which is the highest pace of buys since the week of December 22, 2025,” Lee stated.
The pace of acquisitions shows no sign of slowing, given the company’s cash reserves of $864 million still available for deployment.
$7.1 Billion in Staked ETH Powers Growing Staking Revenue
Of Bitmine’s 4,803,334 ETH, a total of 3,334,637 tokens are currently staked, representing roughly 69% of total holdings.
At $2,123 per ETH, that staked position carries a current value of $7.1 billion. Annualized staking revenues have reached $196 million, with a seven-day yield of 2.78%.
That yield slightly exceeds the CESR benchmark rate of 2.74%, administered by Quatrefoil. At full deployment through its MAVAN staking platform, Bitmine projects annual staking rewards of $282 million.
MAVAN, the Made in America Validator Network, was built initially to support Bitmine’s own treasury operations.
The platform is now being opened to institutional investors, custodians, and ecosystem partners.
Lee noted that Bitmine has staked more ETH than any other entity globally, a position supported by the scale of its treasury.
Beyond ETH, total holdings include 198 Bitcoin, $200 million in Beast Industries, and $92 million in Eightco Holdings (NASDAQ: ORBS). The ORBS position gives Bitmine indirect exposure to OpenAI.
The company also received approval to uplist from NYSE American to the New York Stock Exchange, effective April 9, 2026, continuing under the ticker “BMNR.”
CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1968.74, up 3.5% (+66.62) since 4 p.m. ET on Friday.
Seventeen of 20 assets are trading higher.
Leaders: NEAR (+8.1%) and AVAX (+5.5%).
Laggards: BCH (-0.6%) and XLM (-0.3%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
The surge in onchain perpetual futures trading appears to be cooling after a meteoric rise in 2025. New DefiLlama data show a five-month downturn in perp volumes on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), with March 2026 totals dipping to $699 billion from October’s peak of $1.36 trillion. Daily activity also slowed, as April 4, 2026, posted $8.4 billion in perp DEX volume—the first sub-$10 billion day since September 2025 and the lowest reading since July 2025. The trend suggests a normalization of speculative demand and leveraged positioning in the broader crypto markets after the 2025 surge.
Perp volumes are often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite and liquidity in the onchain derivatives space. The DefiLlama data indicate that after rapid expansion through late 2024 and 2025, activity has retreated, even as a handful of platforms continue to generate the majority of trading volume on the sector’s perpetual markets.
Key takeaways
- Onchain perpetual futures volumes cooled for five consecutive months after peaking in October 2025; March 2026 total fell to $699 billion from $1.36 trillion in October.
- Daily perp DEX activity crossed below $10 billion on April 4, 2026—$8.4 billion that day—marking the lowest level since mid-2025.
- Trading remains highly concentrated: over the last 30 days, Hyperliquid led with about $185.5 billion in reported volume, roughly 34% of the top-10 perp DEX share.
- Top performers dwarfed smaller venues, with edgeX at $73 billion and Aster at $68 billion; smaller platforms like Lighter and Grvt trailed at about $50 billion and $40 billion respectively, while others clustered in the mid-teens to low tens of billions.
- The 2025 period delivered a historic surge, with perpetual DEX volumes nearly tripling to about $12.09 trillion, of which roughly $7.9 trillion was generated in 2025 alone, driven by torrid Q4 activity.
A cooldown after a blistering 2025 run
DefiLlama’s quarterly and monthly breakdowns paint a picture of a market that expanded rapidly through 2024 and 2025, then settled into a more restrained pace in early 2026. After a torrid late-2025 sprint that helped push annual totals to record highs, the industry has seen a consistent deceleration in onchain perpetual futures trading. The fall in March’s total to $699 billion marks a continuation of a downward slope that began in the autumn and extended into the first quarter of 2026.
The decline aligns with a broader pattern in crypto derivatives markets: heightened risk taking in a buoyant environment often gives way to consolidation as markets absorb leverage, funding dynamics cool, and liquidity shifts across venues. While the momentum has cooled, the continued existence of robust single-day volumes—still measured in the billions—signals that perpetuals remain a core component of onchain trading activity, particularly for traders seeking leveraged exposure and hedging across crypto assets.
Liquidity concentration reshapes the perp DEX landscape
DefiLlama’s latest view underscores a persistent concentration among a handful of exchanges. In the past 30 days, Hyperliquid stood out with about $185.5 billion in reported volume, translating to roughly one-third of activity among the top-10 perp DEXs. The platform’s outsized share underscores a broader trend: despite a broader market slowdown, a few venues continue to capture a disproportionate slice of the action.
Rivals posted markedly smaller figures. edgeX registered around $73 billion, and Aster approximately $68 billion, underscoring the gap between Hyperliquid and other leading platforms. In the mid- to lower-tier, several smaller venues contributed fewer billions apiece—Lighter about $50 billion, Grvt near $40 billion—with a handful of others generating tens of billions over the same period. This distribution highlights how liquidity remains highly centralized, even as the total market cools from its late-2025 peak.
The skew toward a few dominant platforms is not new in onchain perpetuals. The space has long featured a battlefield dynamic, with blockchain ecosystems competing to host or launch perpetual DEXs to capture trading activity. The broader narrative—recounted in industry coverage—describes a market where liquidity tends to consolidate around a small number of major venues, even as new entrants attempt to carve out a niche.
For readers tracking the data, DefiLlama’s continual perp DEX dataset offers a quick gauge of where liquidity concentrates and how that balance shifts as market sentiment ebbs and flows. The latest readings reaffirm that, despite volatility, the leading platforms retain a commanding influence over daily and monthly volumes.
From rapid growth to tempered activity: what changed this year
The 2025 period remains a watershed for onchain derivatives trading. Perp DEX volumes nearly tripled year over year to a cumulative $12.09 trillion, with about $7.9 trillion generated in the calendar year 2025 alone. The tail end of 2025—especially the fourth quarter—was pivotal, with monthly activity pacing at roughly $1 trillion on average. This surge helped establish perpetuals as a central battleground for crypto ecosystems, as blockchains raced to host or integrate perpetual DEXs to capture liquidity and user participation.
That growth story has since shifted into a more measured phase. The consolidation of liquidity on a smaller set of venues suggests that traders have matured in their preferences for where to source leverage and how to manage risk across markets. For investors and builders, the implication is twofold: first, the leading platforms will likely continue to attract the bulk of high-value activity, reinforcing their funding, product development, and ecosystem incentives; second, smaller venues will need to differentiate through features such as lower slippage, faster execution, or novel risk controls to gain traction in a crowded field.
Analysts also point to the macro environment surrounding crypto markets as a cross-cutting factor. While perpetuals flourished as a concentrated, high-velocity trading instrument in 2025, any sustained shift in risk appetite, funding dynamics, or regulatory clarity could further influence where liquidity gravitates. As DefiLlama and other trackers continue to chart the perps landscape, observers will be watching for signs of renewed acceleration or another round of consolidation across platforms.
For additional context, earlier industry coverage has framed perpetual DEXs as central to cross-chain and cross-asset trading competition, highlighting how the governance and technical design choices of each platform can shape liquidity flow and user engagement. Those dynamic tensions remain at play as the market digests the post-2025 normalization and contemplates the next phase of growth in onchain derivatives.
Readers should monitor DefiLlama’s perp DEX dashboard for ongoing visibility into volume distribution across platforms, as well as quarterly updates on how much of the total market is captured by the top players. The trajectory from a 2025 explosion to a 2026 cooldown will likely influence funding strategies, product development, and liquidity incentives across the sector.
Looking ahead, the central question is whether the current cooldown is temporary or if a longer-term shift in trader behavior and platform competition will redefine the perpetuals arena. As the data shows, the answer hinges on whether the dominant venues can sustain high throughput, attract fresh liquidity, and deliver the execution quality that traders demand in fast-moving markets.
Rushed quantum fixes for Bitcoin could introduce new risks, Samson Mow warned in response to calls from Coinbase executives for faster action.
Mow, a Bitcoin advocate and Jan3 founder, took to X on Saturday to address comments from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and chief security officer Philip Martin, who urged the industry to begin preparing for quantum computing threats sooner rather than later.
He said that while post-quantum (PQ) cryptography could secure Bitcoin (BTC) against future quantum computers, rushing implementation may create new vulnerabilities such as compatibility issues and reduced network efficiency due to larger signature sizes.
“Simply put: make Bitcoin safe against quantum computers just to get pwned by normal computers,” Mow said, adding that a poorly timed transition could weaken Bitcoin against today’s threats before addressing future ones.
The exchange reflects a growing debate over how to future-proof Bitcoin, as new research from Google and Caltech reignited concerns about progress in quantum computing.
Why Mow is pushing back and how it ties to the block size wars
One of Mow’s biggest concerns about rushing a quantum fix for Bitcoin is the potential impact on performance, particularly block size, or the amount of transaction data that can fit into a single block.
“PQ signatures will likely be 10-125x larger than current ones, and massively reduce throughput,” Mow said, citing former Bitcoin developer Jonas Schnelli.
The signature issue could potentially pave the way for “Blocksize Wars 2.0,” Mow continued.
Bitcoin’s block size wars began around 2015 and peaked in 2017, when the community split over whether to increase the block size to handle more transactions.
Related: Circle unveils quantum-resistant roadmap for its layer-1 blockchain Arc
That dispute raised concerns about decentralization, network security and who controls Bitcoin’s future, ultimately leading to alternative scaling solutions rather than a simple increase in block size.
Despite arguing against rushing a transition to post-quantum cryptography for Bitcoin, Mow said work on potential solutions should continue.
“Given that quantum computers don’t actually exist and likely won’t exist for another 10-20 years, the worst possible course of action is to rush a fix,” he said. “That’s not to say work shouldn’t be done to prepare, and there is already much work being done.”
Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work
The United States, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are weighing terms for a temporary ceasefire that could extend into a permanent resolution, according to U.S., Israeli, and regional sources familiar with the discussions.
Summary
- U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a two-phase ceasefire plan, though chances of a near-term deal remain limited.
- Pakistan has proposed an “Islamabad Accord” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and prevent further escalation.
An Axios report said prospects for a partial deal within the next 48 hours remain limited. Still, officials described the effort as the final opportunity to avoid a sharp escalation that could involve strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure and retaliatory attacks on energy and water facilities across Gulf states.
Separately, a source familiar with the negotiations said both Washington and Tehran have received a proposal that could halt hostilities as early as Monday while reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The plan, drafted by Pakistan and shared overnight, outlines a two-step process beginning with an immediate ceasefire followed by negotiations toward a comprehensive settlement.
“All elements need to be agreed today,” the source said, noting that the initial understanding would take the form of a memorandum of understanding finalised electronically through Pakistan, which has emerged as the sole communication channel.
Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has been in continuous contact “all night long” with JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the source added.
Under the framework, a ceasefire would take effect immediately and allow shipping to resume through the strait, with a 15 to 20-day window to finalise a broader agreement. The proposal, informally referred to as the “Islamabad Accord,” also envisions a regional framework governing the waterway, with final in-person talks expected in Islamabad.
The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed global oil prices higher.
Donald Trump has repeatedly issued deadlines for Iran to reopen the passage or face military action targeting its energy infrastructure. In a recent Truth Social post, he extended the deadline to Tuesday and warned Iran would be “living in hell” if it failed to comply.
Despite mounting diplomatic pressure, Tehran has yet to signal acceptance of the proposed ceasefire. Iranian officials have said any agreement must include guarantees against future attacks by the U.S. and Israel. They also confirmed receiving messages from mediators, including Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, supporting a temporary 45-day truce to allow further negotiations.
The draft agreement is expected to include commitments from Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. However, officials said no formal commitment has been secured so far.
Iran’s leadership has maintained a defiant stance, warning it would respond “in kind” to any attack on its infrastructure, while also considering measures such as transit tolls before reopening the strait.
How will the crypto market react to potential de-escalation?
Although no agreement has been finalised at press time, risk assets have started to recover. The total crypto market cap has risen around 3.4% to $2.47 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) attempting to reclaim the $70,000 level. Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP), and other major crypto tokens have posted gains in the 3% to 6% range.
The move suggests traders may already be positioning for a potential de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could stabilise energy markets and ease inflation pressures.
Traditional markets, however, presented a mixed picture. Asian equities were mostly lower, with the Nikkei 225 standing out as an exception, while gold and silver traded in a narrow range as investors balanced uncertainty with selective risk exposure.
A confirmed ceasefire could support both crypto and global equities by easing oil prices and improving expectations for monetary policy. Lower energy costs tend to reduce inflation pressures, which could increase the likelihood of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve.
Failure to reach an agreement carries the opposite risk. An escalation involving direct strikes on Iranian infrastructure and retaliation across the region could trigger a sharp shift toward safe-haven assets, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies as capital moves into the dollar and traditional defensive plays.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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