Crypto World
CFTC chief Selig to open path for US crypto perpetuals
CFTC chairman Michael Selig plans to enable US-listed crypto perpetual futures within weeks.
Summary
- CFTC chair Michael Selig told attendees the agency aims to clear regulatory obstacles and launch “genuine professional” crypto perpetual futures in the US within about 4 weeks.
- The move is part of “Project Crypto,” a joint SEC–CFTC initiative that includes new guidance for DeFi, prediction markets, and tokenized collateral frameworks.
- BTC and major altcoins saw modest intraday gains while derivatives traders priced in potential onshoring of volume from offshore venues, with expectations for higher regulated futures open interest.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is preparing to clear a formal path for crypto perpetual futures to operate onshore, in what could mark one of the most significant structural shifts for the digital asset derivatives market since the approval of spot exchange-traded products. According to remarks attributed to chairman Michael Selig and relayed via a CoinDesk report, the agency is “working to launch professional futures—genuine professional futures—in the US within approximately the next month,” with multiple policy announcements expected soon. The initiative aims to reverse years of regulatory ambiguity that pushed a large share of perpetual futures activity to offshore platforms, leaving US markets reliant on less standardized products and fragmented liquidity.
Selig’s comments, delivered at a Washington event alongside SEC chair Paul Atkins, frame perpetual futures as a core tool for risk management and price discovery that should exist within a transparent, supervised environment rather than primarily on unregulated exchanges. He argued that the prior approach “failed to create a pathway” for onshore perpetuals, contributing to capital flight and an uneven playing field for US firms. Under the new direction, the CFTC intends to use its rulemaking powers to permit additional tokenized collateral types and to define conditions under which perpetual and other novel derivatives can list and trade, subject to margin, clearing, and conduct safeguards.
Impact on markets and venues
Market participants immediately began debating how onshore perpetuals could reshape flows between US-registered markets and offshore exchanges that have historically dominated perpetual volume. Some commentators suggested that regulated contracts could draw a portion of institutional and professional activity away from lightly supervised venues, especially once larger platforms such as Coinbase expand their CFTC-registered offerings beyond existing structured products. Others questioned whether leverage caps, onboarding requirements, and surveillance obligations might limit the appeal of US-listed perps relative to high-leverage offshore alternatives that remain outside the direct reach of American regulators.
The timing also intersects with broader reforms under “Project Crypto,” which seeks clearer rules for DeFi developers, prediction markets, and retail leveraged products, as well as parallel regulatory developments in other jurisdictions under regimes like MiCA. If successful, onshoring more of the perpetual futures complex could tighten the link between CFTC-supervised benchmarks and spot BTC markets, improving transparency while potentially reducing the systemic risk associated with opaque, cross-border leverage cycles. For traders and firms, the coming announcements will determine how quickly new contracts can list, which collateral will qualify, and whether a meaningful share of global perpetual liquidity migrates into the US regulatory perimeter.
The CEX said its IRAs are the first crypto-native retirement accounts in the U.S. to offer crypto and traditional equities in one account.
Centralized exchange (CEX) Crypto.com has unveiled retirement account in the U.S. the let users invest in both cryptocurrency and traditional equities in a single account.
The CEX says that the IRAs are a first of its kind for a crypto native firm, according to a press release published today, March 3.
“The launch of Crypto.com IRAs is our latest significant step in providing consumers the ability to act on and invest in financial opportunity,” Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of the platform said in a statement.
Per the announcement, the Crypto.com IRAs offer features such as tax-deferred or tax-free growth, contribution matches of up to 5%, and zero account fees.
The move comes just a week after the CEX announced it has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish Foris Dax National Trust Bank, positioning itself as a federally regulated qualified custodian, as The Defiant previously reported.
Founded in 2016, Crypto.com is currently ranked 10th among CEXs on CoinGecko by 24-hour trading volume and trust score, with about $2.8 billion in trades today.
In April, Fidelity launched dedicated cryptocurrency retirement accounts with exposure to several major crypto assets, as The Defiant reported. The tax-advantaged accounts from the TradFi giant, however, only offer crypto investment, while clients need to keep a separate IRA account for their traditional investments.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.
War news may be dominating headlines, but Alibaba AI believes crypto’s mid-to-long-term prospects look better than ever.
Market behavior suggests that investors may have already absorbed the impact of war-related risks earlier in the year, following selloffs triggered by former President Trump’s rhetoric around possible U.S. military escalation involving Greenland and Iran.
As such, Alibaba AI predicts sweltering new highs this year for XRP, BTC, and ETH.
XRP ($XRP): Alibaba AI Forecasts a 9x Move Over the Next 10 Months
In a recent update, Ripple reaffirmed that XRP ($XRP) is the key to positioning XRP Ledger (XRPL) as a global, enterprise-ready payments infrastructure.
With fast settlement speeds, and ultra-low transaction costs, XRPL could capture an early advantage in two of crypto’s fastest growing segments: stablecoins and tokenized real world assets.
XRP is currently trading near $1.38, and Alibaba AI predicts a potential climb toward $12 this year, a ninefold return for current holders.
Technical data adds weight to the bullish call. XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) is hovering around 43, while price action has found support near the 30-day moving average, signalling that the extended consolidation phase could be over.
Further upside catalysts include rising institutional involvement following the launch of U.S.-listed XRP ETFs, Ripple’s expanding international partnerships, and potential regulatory clarity should the CLARITY bill pass in the U.S. later this year.
Bitcoin (BTC): Alibaba AI Eyes a $155,000 New Year Target
The first and biggest crypto, Bitcoin ($BTC), reached an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6 before shedding nearly 50% of its price in the months following.
Despite recent volatility, Alibaba suggests Bitcoin remains on a long-term growth trajectory, with 2026 possibly peaking at $150,000.
Often referred to as digital gold, Bitcoin attracts risk-averse institutional and retail investors seeking diversification and protection against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin currently represents about $1.3 trillion of the $2.4 trillion total crypto market. Much of its recent losses followed sharp pullbacks after the U.S. threatened military involvement in Iran and Greenland.
Accelerating institutional adoption and reduced supply following the latest halving event could be key drivers pushing Bitcoin to new highs this year.
If Trump delivers on his promice for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve then BTC could even peak far higher than Alibaba suspects.
Ethereum (ETH): Alibaba AI Says ETH to Hit $6,000
Ethereum ($ETH) is the leading smart contract platform and the backbone of decentralized finance.
With a market capitalization of approximately $239 billion and $53 billion locked on chain, Ethereum is the primary settlement layer for on-chain economic activity.
Its proven security, leadership in stablecoins, and early momentum in real-world asset tokenization position Ethereum as a strong candidate for deeper institutional adoption.
That hinges on regulatory progress. Approval of the CLARITY bill by U.S. lawmakers could provide the certainty institutions need to deploy capital on Ethereum.
ETH currently trades under $2,000, with major resistance expected around $5,000 as seen by last August’s ATH of $4,946.05.
A decisive break above $5,000 has Alibaba hypothesizing $6,000 ETH by Christmas.
Maxi Doge: Early-Stage Meme Coin Targets Outsized Returns
Alibaba thinks XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum may offer substantial growth this year, which will ultimately be great for meme coins.
And one high upside potential new meme coin investors are piling into is Maxi Doge ($MAXI). It has raised $4.6 million in its ongoing presale as investors bet on Maxi dethroning Dogecoin.
Maxi Doge claims to be Dogecoin’s louder, degenerate, long-lost gym-bro cousin, evoking the viral energy of meme coins during the 2021 bull run.
Built as an ERC-20 token on Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network, MAXI leaves a significantly smaller environmental footprint compared to Dogecoin’s proof-of-work model.
Early presale participants can currently stake MAXI for yields of up to 67% APY, with returns gradually decreasing as more tokens enter the staking pool.
The token is $0.0002806 in the current presale phase, with automatic price increases scheduled at each funding milestone.
Investors looking to secure $HYPER can visit the official website and connect a supported wallet such as Best Wallet.
Purchases can also be made with a bank card.
Visit the Official Website Here
The post China’s Alibaba AI Predicts the Price of XRP, Bitcoin and Ethereum by the End of 2026 appeared first on Cryptonews.
TLDR
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the Base App SocialFi experiment did not work as expected.
- He confirmed that Coinbase has shifted the Base App focus toward trading and self-custody features.
- The company relaunched Coinbase Wallet as the Base App in July 2025 with social and trading tools combined.
- Jesse Pollak stated that the app felt overly focused on social features before the pivot.
- Base removed its Farcaster-powered social feed as part of the product changes.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the Base App’s SocialFi features “didn’t quite work” during a recent podcast appearance. He explained that the company tested onchain social tools but later shifted focus to trading. The remarks clarify Coinbase’s strategy after relaunching its wallet as an all-in-one application in 2025.
Armstrong spoke on David Senra’s podcast and addressed the SocialFi push tied to the Base App. He said the company ran the initiative as an experiment but later changed direction. Coinbase now prioritizes trading tools and a self-custodial experience within the app.
Coinbase CEO Addresses Base App SocialFi Pivot
Coinbase relaunched its noncustodial Coinbase Wallet as the Base App in July 2025. The company positioned the product as an all-in-one platform combining trading, messaging, gaming, and social media features. However, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the social focus fell short of expectations.
“In the current incarnation, it wasn’t quite there in my view,” Armstrong said. He added, “We tried it as an experiment. It didn’t quite work.”
Armstrong said the company has since pivoted toward trading and core finance tools. He described the updated app as “more focused on trading and being a self-custodial version of the Coinbase app.” Earlier this year, Base head Jesse Pollak wrote that “the app felt overly focused on social” and would “lean into a finance-first UX.”
Soon after, Base removed its Farcaster-powered social feed following changes within the decentralized social platform. The company reduced several SocialFi elements while keeping the trading infrastructure intact.
Creator Coins and Token Performance
Jesse Pollak had promoted Creator Coin features within the Base App. The feature allowed users to double-tap posts to buy related tokens, and creators received value from activity. Armstrong said users viewed the model “as a way to reward and thank the creator.” However, most creator tokens later lost value after early trading activity slowed.
Nick Shirley launched one of the most visible creator coins through Zora. His token, $thenickshirley, reached a $15 million market cap after Armstrong promoted it. However, the token later declined sharply and failed to sustain momentum. Armstrong said “many posts” carried “thousands of dollars worth of value at the terminal end” of the experiment.
Other SocialFi efforts also faced setbacks across the sector. In January, Aave Labs spun out Lens Protocol as a separate initiative. Zora later introduced “attention markets” on Solana to let users trade social trends. Base itself now replaces parts of the OP Stack with custom components and reportedly weighs a native token launch.
Armstrong said, “I think something is going to work in SocialFi,” while noting that tokenomics “have not been quite figured out yet” and must show durability.
TLDR
- BitGo Europe GmbH has launched its MiCA-compliant crypto as a service platform across all 30 EEA countries.
- The service enables banks and fintech firms to integrate regulated custody trading and fiat rails through a single API.
- Institutions can embed multi-asset wallets onboarding and settlement services directly into their platforms.
- Custodial wallets carry insurance coverage of up to 250 million dollars, subject to terms.
- BitGo handles trade settlement and custody through its internal regulated infrastructure.
BitGo Europe GmbH has launched its crypto-as-a-service platform across the European Economic Area under the MiCA framework. The rollout enables banks and fintech firms to integrate regulated custody, trading, and fiat services through a single API. The company confirmed that institutions in all 30 EEA countries can now access its infrastructure.
BitGo Rolls Out Regulated Infrastructure Across 30 EEA Countries
BitGo said it now offers API-based wallet, onboarding, and settlement services throughout the EEA. The company operates the service through its regulated European entity, BitGo Europe GmbH. Institutions can embed multi-asset wallets and SEPA fiat rails directly into their platforms. The platform also supports fiat on- and off-ramps under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.
The company stated that custodial wallets carry insurance coverage of up to $250 million, subject to terms. It also provides configurable policy controls and 24/7 operational support. Partners can enable clients to buy, sell, and hold digital assets within existing interfaces. BitGo handles trade settlement and custody through its internal infrastructure.
BitGo previously offered the service in the United States through BitGo Bank & Trust. The company confirmed that the European expansion follows MiCA’s implementation across member states. It said the framework allows institutions to formalize digital asset services under a unified licensing regime. The company has operated since 2013 and provides custody, staking, trading, financing, and settlement services globally.
BitGo went public on Jan. 22 and trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BTGO. Yahoo Finance data showed the stock at $10.20 on Tuesday, down 1.6% for the day. The data also showed the stock has declined about 20% since its listing.
Bitcoin and Ether Custody Gains Traction Under MiCA
Financial institutions across Europe have expanded digital asset custody services under MiCA rules. In July, Deutsche Bank advanced its custody plans by partnering with Bitpanda’s technology unit and the Swiss firm Taurus. The bank said it aims to integrate regulated digital asset infrastructure into its offerings. These moves align with MiCA requirements for licensed crypto services.
In September, Spain’s BBVA said it would use Ripple’s institutional custody platform. The bank confirmed that it plans to support Bitcoin and Ether trading and safekeeping. BBVA cited MiCA compliance as a key factor in its decision. The announcement outlined plans to operate under the EU’s regulatory framework.
Clearstream, part of Deutsche Börse, also confirmed the launch of new custody services for Bitcoin and Ether. The company said it will provide custody and settlement through its Swiss subsidiary, Crypto Finance AG. The service targets institutional clients seeking regulated access to digital assets. Clearstream stated that it will integrate the offering within its existing infrastructure.
In January, Standard Chartered announced plans to launch digital asset custody in Europe. The bank secured a license in Luxembourg to operate the service. It established a dedicated EU entity to deliver custody directly to clients. These developments follow MiCA’s rollout across the region.
Stafford Masie, executive chairman of Africa Bitcoin Corporation, said Tuesday that Bitcoin functions as everyday money in parts of Africa rather than primarily as a store of value.
Speaking to Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast on Tuesday, Masie said the framing of Bitcoin (BTC) differs sharply across regions.
“Where I come from, Bitcoin is money,” he told Brunell, adding that in some circular economies in Africa, merchants “won’t accept dollars — they accept satoshis.”
While investors in developed markets often emphasize its role as an inflation hedge, he described communities where satoshis circulate directly in local economies. He also pointed to the stark difference between inflation in the West and in parts of Africa.
“When you guys talk about debasement, you talk about 4% to 5% annually — we talk about 4% to 5% in an afternoon,” he said.
Masie compared the shift to the continent’s rapid adoption of mobile technology, arguing that younger populations are bypassing legacy financial systems. Rather than transitioning gradually from stable fiat currencies, he described a move from what he called “broken money” and sharp currency debasement into digital assets.
He also highlighted Africa’s youthful demographics as a key factor, noting that more than a quarter of the continent’s population is under 20. He said younger generations are embracing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and they “love Bitcoin.”
Masie said that in this context, Bitcoin becomes more than a passive store of value. Instead, he described it as “pristine capital;” a financial substrate that individuals and businesses can build on. He said:
In Africa, we know the age before 2008 and the age after 2008. After the Bitcoin white paper and before the Bitcoin white paper. Our lives changed, because suddenly we had something that couldn’t be debased. It was immutable, decentralized, can’t be confiscated. That to an African is life or death.”
Masie is a longtime technology executive who previously led major tech operations in South Africa.
Related: Africrypt founders back in South Africa years after platform collapse: Report
Crypto adoption in Africa
Data from blockchain analytics company Chainalysis appears to back up the shift on the continent that Masie is describing.
From July 2024 to June 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa received more than $205 billion in onchain value, up 52% year-on-year, making it the third-fastest growing crypto region globally. In March 2025 alone, monthly volume spiked to nearly $25 billion, driven largely by activity in Nigeria following a currency devaluation.
Sub-Saharan Africa has also stood out as a retail-driven crypto market. Transfers under $10,000 accounted for more than 8% of total value sent in the region during the same time period, compared with about 6% globally, according to the report released in September.
At the same time, Nigeria and South Africa showed notable institutional activity, with onchain flows indicating recurring multimillion-dollar stablecoin transfers linked to cross-border trade between Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
In January, speaking at the World Economic Forum, former UN Under-Secretary-General Vera Songwe explained how stablecoins are increasingly viewed as a cheaper remittance and settlement tool in Africa.
She said remittances have become “more important than aid” in many African economies, while traditional transfers can cost about $6 per $100 sent. With inflation exceeding 20% in about a dozen countries and an estimated 650 million people unbanked, she said stablecoins offer both a payments rail and a store of value in markets facing currency pressure.
Magazine: Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned against Bitcoin as a long-term store of value and safe-haven asset, arguing that it has little central bank support and has lingering concerns over its privacy limitations and quantum resistance.
Dalio dismissed the idea that Bitcoin (BTC) can function as a digital gold, telling the All-In Podcast on Tuesday that “there is only one gold.”
“Gold is not a precious metal that’s speculated on,” Dalio said, adding it is the “most established money” that is the second-largest reserve currency held by central banks.
Dalio added he doesn’t see why central banks would want to buy Bitcoin and hold it over the long term.
Dalio has previously said that Bitcoin has hard money characteristics and noted that it continues to “have a pretty high correlation with tech stocks.”
“So, from an ownership perspective, supply and demand can be affected if somebody gets squeezed in one area and has to sell something else they hold.”
Dalio also raised concerns about Bitcoin’s lack of privacy, stating “any transaction can be monitored,” and warned that quantum computing could threaten the network.
In July, Dalio recommended a 15% portfolio allocation into Bitcoin or gold to optimize for the “best return-to-risk ratio” in light of America’s crippling debt problem and continued currency debasement.
Related: Bitcoin dives 3% on global asset rout as $5K gold ‘smashed’ on oil fears
Between July and early October, Bitcoin and gold were both on the rise until a broader crypto market crash wiped out nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions.
The pair then decoupled in early October, with Bitcoin falling over 45% since its October peak to $68,420, while gold has continued to rally, climbing over 30% to $5,120 in that timeframe.
Dalio says the world as we know it has changed
Dalio sent a message to investors last month, warning that the “World Order,” one led by the US for the best part of a century, had “broken down,” and that investors must rethink how they protect their wealth amid rising geopolitical conflict and economic disorder.
Dalio reinforced his long-held position that stores of value, particularly gold, are the best option to preserve wealth when currencies falter and credit systems break down, while debt assets become vulnerable as uncertainty rises.
Magazine: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?
TLDR
- Jamie Dimon said stablecoin issuers that pay interest on customer balances should face the same rules as banks.
- He argued that companies holding customer funds and paying interest operate like traditional deposit-taking institutions.
- Dimon stated that such firms should comply with capital, liquidity, and anti-money laundering requirements applied to banks.
- He said banks could accept crypto platforms offering transaction-based rewards instead of interest on stored balances.
- Dimon emphasized that similar financial products should follow the same regulatory standards for fairness.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called for strict oversight of stablecoin issuers that pay interest on customer balances. He said companies offering interest should follow the same rules as traditional banks. Dimon made the remarks during a CNBC interview as lawmakers review U.S. crypto legislation.
Jamie Dimon Calls for Bank-Level Oversight on Interest-Paying Stablecoins
Jamie Dimon addressed reported tensions with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong during the CNBC interview. He focused on the differences between transaction rewards and interest on stored balances. He said regulators must draw a clear line between the two models.
“Rewards are the same as interest,” Dimon said during the interview. He added that firms holding balances and paying interest operate like banks. “If you are going to be holding balances and paying interest, that’s the bank,” he said.
Dimon stated that such companies should follow banking standards. He said they should meet capital and liquidity requirements. He also said they should comply with anti-money laundering rules and federal deposit insurance standards.
He explained that banks accept a compromise on transaction-based rewards. However, he said interest on stored balances changes the nature of the service. Therefore, he argued that similar products require similar oversight.
He framed the debate around fairness and safety. “Level playing field by product,” Dimon said during the interview. He warned that risks could grow outside regulated systems without equal rules.
Banks and Crypto Firms Debate Stablecoin Regulation in Washington
Lawmakers in Washington continue reviewing draft legislation on stablecoin oversight. The Senate Banking Committee had planned to vote on the proposed CLARITY Act. However, Armstrong withdrew support for the bill one day before the scheduled vote.
Armstrong has argued that banks should compete directly with crypto firms. In contrast, Dimon said regulation should follow the product structure. He maintained that companies offering bank-like services must accept bank-like supervision.
Dimon also stressed that JPMorgan supports competition within financial markets. He said the bank uses blockchain technology in its own operations. He confirmed that JPMorgan has developed a deposit token for internal use.
The bank processes payments and data transfers through distributed ledger systems. “We’re in favor of competition,” Dimon said during the interview. “But it’s got to be fair and balanced,” he added.
Dimon pointed to the compliance obligations banks follow every day. He referenced anti-money laundering checks and community lending requirements. He said regulators designed those standards to protect the financial system.
“For the safety of the system, not just the fairness of competition,” Dimon said. Meanwhile, lawmakers continue to review new draft language circulated by the White House. Industry groups have not reached an agreement on whether stablecoin issuers should offer yield on balances.
Global markets pulled back while crude oil surged as the Iran conflict entered its fourth day.
Crypto markets retraced some of Monday’s gains amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with oil surging above $75 a barrel as the U.S. and Israel bombarded Iran for a fourth day.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $68,500, down 1% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH and SOL are down 2% at about $2,000 and $86, respectively, and BNB is down 1% on the day.
The overall crypto market capitalization dipped less than 1% to $2.41 trillion, according to Coingecko.
Global markets are being pressured by a strengthening dollar, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hitting a 6-week high of 99.68 earlier this morning. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq dipped by around 1%, while gold and silver plunged by 4% and 7%, respectively.
Most of the Top 100 digital assets posted losses over the last 24 hours.
Top gainers include Mantle (MNT), Aptos (APT), and Near Protocol (NEAR), which rallied approximately 6%.
AAVE and Memecore (M) are today’s biggest losers, down 11% and 9%, respectively.
Around 110,000 leveraged traders were liquidated for $372 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin accounted for $147 million, while ETH positions made up $78 million.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $458 million in inflows on Monday as investors continued to add exposure despite the ongoing volatility. This follows $787 million of inflows last week.
A Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldier stands guard in front of the National Museum of China in Beijing on March 3, 2025, ahead of the country’s annual legislative meetings known as the “Two Sessions.”
Pedro Pardo | Afp | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s top policymakers are due to release growth targets and stimulus plans for the year at an annual parliamentary meeting that kicks off Wednesday.
The gathering, dubbed the “Two Sessions,” consists of a consultative congress that will start later in the day, and a National People’s Congress due to open Thursday. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is set to announce a series of economic targets at the NPC, which had largely been decided at a December meeting.
During the upcoming parliamentary meeting this year, policymakers are also expected to release details of a new five-year development plan, the 15th such program in China’s modern history. Investors will look for clues on how Beijing intends to achieve its domestic tech ambitions.
The goals will mark the penultimate step towards China’s 2035 goals with a focus on achieving technological self-sufficiency.
Senior Chinese leaders including top diplomat Wang Yi and heads of economic and financial ministries typically speak to the press during the Two Sessions. The gathering usually lasts around a week and is expected to conclude on March 11 this year.
Asia Society analysts noted that China’s anti-corruption campaign has reduced the number of delegates participating in the Two Sessions this year.
Here’s what economists are expecting Premier Li to announce Thursday:
GDP growth of around 4.5% to 5%
Several Chinese local governments have already lowered their growth ambitions for 2026, signaling Beijing could follow suit with the national target.
A growth target below 5% would be the lowest on record, according to The Asia Society, and down from “around 5%” in the past three years. China didn’t set a GDP goal in 2020 due to the pandemic.
“A slightly lower target would give policymakers more room to prioritise structural reform and improve data quality,” economists at Economist Intelligence Unit said in a note last week, penciling in a 4.6% growth prediction.
However, Morgan Stanley analysts see a “low probability” that Beijing will set a smaller growth target, adding that policymakers typically set GDP ranges — rather than single-figure targets — for periods of major economic stress. The firm also pointed out that 2026 was the first year of China’s “15th five-year plan,” which requires faster growth to anchor confidence.
Inflation of around 2%
Budget deficit of 4%
Such a target would also match last year’s, which had marked a rare expansion of government spending relative to GDP.
The 4% deficit set in 2025 was the highest on record going back to 2010, according to data accessed via Wind Information. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020.
Deeper challenges
China’s policy announcements will be scrutinized for details on consumer stimulus, such as expanding trade-in subsidies, and any incremental support for the struggling property market. The Two Sessions will likely shed light on Beijing’s thinking about the impact of U.S. trade tensions and the developing conflict in the Middle East.
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The world’s second-largest economy faces persistent challenges at home.
“There is a widening gap between Beijing’s targets (and data measuring economic performance) and the actual capacity of China’s policymakers to support domestic demand with the tools at their disposal,” Logan Wright, partner at U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group, said in a report Tuesday.
Wright added that China’s financial system was lending heavily to unproductive local government and state-owned enterprises to prevent them from collapsing — and that fiscal spending was largely executed by those same institutions.
“The net result is a declining payoff in terms of investment and economic activity for the same volume of lending or fiscal spending, while private sector investment remains weak,” he said.
Voters in North Carolina, Texas and Arkansas head to the polls as the 2026 midterm cycle begins to take shape, with crypto policy emerging as a cross-cutting issue in several congressional contests. In Texas, Democratic Representative Jasmine Crockett is pursuing a risky bid for the Senate seat held by Republican John Cornyn. Crockett’s campaign intersects with a broader narrative about funding from crypto-aligned groups and industry money aimed at shaping regulatory outcomes. The primary season features debates over stablecoin payments, market structure bills, and the balance between innovation and consumer protections. As crypto-focused political action committees mobilize substantial fundraising and media campaigns, the question for voters is whether these interests will tilt policy in Washington in the run-up to the 2026 midterms.
Key takeaways
- Texas’s Senate primary has drawn substantial crypto-connected spending, with AdImpact reporting more than $122 million in total on both sides as of February 27.
- Representative Jasmine Crockett’s voting history includes support for the GENIUS Act stabilizing payments and for FIT21, the former iteration of a digital asset market structure bill, while she opposed the CLARITY Act.
- Crypto-focused PACs, including Fairshake and Web3 Forward, have deployed large sums in past cycles—Fairshake alone reported hundreds of millions in activity to influence media coverage and candidate support.
- Advocacy groups and crypto donors have claimed that the 2024 cycle produced a notably pro-crypto Congress, a claim tied to subsequent legislative momentum on GENIUS Act provisions and related market frameworks.
- The 2026 landscape features a wide slate of contests—33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for grabs—making crypto-aligned fundraising a more persistent factor in down-ballot races beyond Texas.
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The intersection of political fundraising and crypto policy is increasingly prominent as lawmakers weigh stablecoin regulation, asset definitions, and market infrastructure bills amid broader macro and regulatory uncertainties.
Why it matters
The Texas race encapsulates a broader trend wherein crypto donors and advocacy groups are actively seeking to shape who sits in Congress and, by extension, the policy environment around digital assets. Crockett’s prior support for GENIUS Act-related provisions signals a willingness to engage with federal efforts aimed at simplifying or clarifying how stablecoins and other digital assets operate within traditional financial rules. Her voting history, including positions on FIT21 and CLARITY Act, provides a hinge point for how a Democratic candidate might approach a closely watched policy corridor as 2026 unfolds. The infusion of crypto money into the race—via committees backed by the industry and independent groups—highlights a persistent strategy: use media influence and targeted messaging to press for favorable regulatory outcomes, even as some campaigns insist they accept no corporate PAC money.
The broader backdrop is equally instructive. The rise of crypto-aligned PACs like Fairshake and its affiliates has underscored how fundraising can translate into policy visibility, particularly when a field is navigating complex questions about whether crypto should be treated as a security, a commodity, or a new category altogether. In the 2024 cycle, Fairshake and allied groups reported significant media spending to bolster pro-crypto candidates, a pattern described by industry advocates as contributing to what some labeled the “most pro-crypto Congress” in history. That sentiment fed into legislative activity around the GENIUS Act and related market structure initiatives, signaling that money and policy are increasingly entwined in the crypto policy conversation. For readers watching the Texas contest or statewide dynamics, this confluence matters because it can alter committee priorities, regulatory tempo, and the speed with which new laws or amendments are considered.
The narrative is reinforced by ongoing disclosures and public statements from PACs and industry figures. A January interview with Crockett, coupled with media investments from crypto-aligned groups, illustrates how candidates navigate a crowded field of political support while maintaining positions on core issues. The scene is further complicated by the involvement of well-known industry players and donors, including those linked to high-profile campaigns and political action committees that have historically funneled significant sums into pivotal races. This environment implies a higher degree of scrutiny on any candidate’s external funding sources and on how policy platforms align with those financial backers.
In parallel, the political rhythm around crypto policy remains dynamic. The original GENIUS Act line, the FIT21 framework, and the CLARITY Act have all featured in debates over how federal regulation should intersect with digital assets and stablecoins. The evolving narrative around those bills—along with public endorsements and criticisms from industry players—shapes not only candidate strategies but also the posture of regulators and the timing of potential policy updates. It is not just about one seat or one state; the 2026 cycle is shaping expectations for how Congress will respond to rapid changes in the crypto landscape and how those responses might affect market access, compliance costs, and innovation pipelines across a wide cross-section of the U.S. economy.
The discussion is further enriched by frequent references to related developments, including high-profile mentions such as the BitMEX co-founder pledge and other industry-linked contributions that have fed into broader debates about governance, accountability, and the role of money in politics. The evolving policy conversation—spurred by committee hearings, executive leadership changes, and continuing advocacy—may determine how quickly the U.S. moves from broader principles to concrete regulatory action. This is the kind of environment where a few primary races can become bellwethers for the future balance of power on crypto policy and, by extension, the direction of the sector in the years ahead.
To get a sense of the media and political dynamics at play, viewers can reference a related discussion that ties crypto fundraising to policy outcomes, including coverage of PAC activity and industry perspectives. The material includes a YouTube discussion and related reporting on how donor networks influence campaign messaging and policy debates. The ongoing conversation underscores that the 2026 cycle is as much about narrative control and fundraising strategy as it is about concrete policy proposals.
As the primary season continues, observers will also watch for additional data points on how crypto donors organize around specific candidates and districts. The narrative around Alabama, Texas, and other key states—where crypto-linked committees have already signaled intent to engage—offers a window into the mechanics of political influence in the digital-asset space. In the months ahead, campaigns and policymakers alike will need to address a complex matrix of questions: How will stablecoins be regulated? Will Congress advance a comprehensive market-structure framework? And how will donors calibrate their support in a way that aligns with voters’ broader economic priorities?
The broader context includes conventional political dynamics, such as party competition and voter sentiment, but the crypto dimension adds a distinct layer of financial leverage to the electoral process. The 2026 midterms will test whether the crypto-policy impulse can translate into durable legislative changes or if it remains a financing and messaging force within a noisy, highly scrutinized political environment. For readers tracking policy evolution, the coming weeks and months will be a critical period to observe where the money flows, which ideas gain traction, and how candidates like Crockett position themselves on one of the most volatile segments of the policy spectrum.
What to watch next
- Follow the Texas primary results for Crockett, Cornyn, Paxton and other contenders as crypto donors weigh their preferred outcomes.
- Monitor committee actions and floor votes related to the GENIUS Act, FIT21/FIT era bills, and the evolving market structure framework.
- Track forthcoming disclosures from crypto PACs and their media allocations ahead of key primaries and the broader 2026 cycle.
- Observe statements and ratings from Stand With Crypto and similar groups about candidates’ crypto stances, particularly in Texas and Alabama.
Sources & verification
- AdImpact data showing more than $122 million in spending on the Texas Senate primary as of February 27.
- Crockett’s voting history on GENIUS Act, FIT21, and CLARITY Act-related measures.
- Reports on Fairshake and related PACs’ 2024 media spend and $193 million treasury ahead of the midterms.
- Public statements and coverage related to the “most pro-crypto Congress” narrative and its connection to GENIUS Act progress.
- Affiliates and ratings from crypto advocacy groups, including Stand With Crypto’s positions on specific lawmakers.
Election finance and crypto policy momentum in 2026
The Texas Senate race illustrates how campaign finance dynamics and policy ambitions converge in a high-stakes political environment. Crockett’s engagement with GENIUS Act-style provisions signals a willingness to engage with federal policy that could influence not only how stablecoins are treated but how the broader digital-asset market is defined and regulated. Her opponents’ positions, the industry’s fundraising playbook, and the broader narrative around what constitutes a pro-crypto Congress all feed into a broader pattern: money, messaging, and policy formulation are increasingly entangled as crypto assets move from niche technology to a mainstream political issue.
In the weeks ahead, the story will pivot on concrete legislative steps—whether committees will advance a cohesive framework for digital assets, where new regulatory guardrails may form, and how voters assess candidates’ ties to crypto money alongside traditional policy platforms. The 2026 midterms are not just about party lines; they are about how much weight the crypto policy perspective carries in determining the balance of power in Congress and, ultimately, the shape of regulation that could influence the technology’s adoption and the market’s competitive landscape.
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