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CFTC fires back as states target prediction markets

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CFTC fires back as states target prediction markets

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has moved to defend its authority over prediction markets, filing a friend-of-the-court brief as state-level legal challenges against the sector intensify.

Summary

  • The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a friend-of-the-court brief to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets amid rising state-level legal challenges.
  • Chairman Mike Selig said the agency has regulated prediction markets for over two decades and warned challengers: “We will see you in court.”
  • The move comes as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission signals some event-based contracts may qualify as securities, while states like Nevada attempt to restrict platforms including Coinbase.

CFTC defends control of US prediction markets

In a video posted on X, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig said American prediction markets have faced “an onslaught of state-led litigation” over the past year. In response, the agency is stepping in to assert what it describes as its exclusive jurisdiction over these derivative products.

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“Prediction markets aren’t new,” Selig said. “The CFTC has regulated these markets for over two decades.”

He argued that such markets play a valuable role by allowing Americans to hedge commercial risks, including temperature fluctuations and energy price spikes. He also suggested they function as a check on media narratives and broader information flows.

The legal battle comes as regulators debate whether certain prediction market contracts fall under securities or commodities law. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned that some event-based contracts could be classified as securities, potentially subjecting platforms to its oversight.

Meanwhile, states including Nevada have sought to restrict the operations of crypto-linked prediction platforms, though a Nevada court recently declined to block Coinbase from offering certain prediction market services.

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The CFTC’s filing underscores escalating jurisdictional tensions between federal and state authorities, as well as between financial regulators. Selig emphasized that the agency intends to protect the “integrity, resilience, and vibrancy” of US derivatives markets.

“To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear,” he said. “We will see you in court.”

The case could have significant implications for the future of US-based prediction markets and their regulatory framework.

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Bitcoin stays volatile while MUFG says stables work better as money

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Bitcoin investors face ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ quantum threat

Bitcoin slips ~2% in 7d as MUFG touts stablecoins’ price-stable payments.

An analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has stated that stablecoins represent a more suitable currency option than Bitcoin for payment purposes, according to recent commentary from the Japanese financial institution.

Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG, one of Japan’s three largest banks, said stablecoins have attracted increased attention compared to other digital assets due to their function as digital cash.

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Hardman stated that stablecoins better fulfill the requirements of money by offering price stability and fast, low-cost payment services, according to the analyst’s assessment. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s high price volatility limits its use as a daily payment method.

Stablecoins are pegged to fiat currencies and maintain stable value, making them more likely to be used as a medium of exchange and payment, Hardman said.

The comments come as interest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies continues to expand globally, with financial institutions increasingly evaluating various digital asset classes for potential use cases.

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What Happens to ETH if $2K Support Is Decisively Lost?

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What Happens to ETH if $2K Support Is Decisively Lost?

After the aggressive sell-off toward the $1.8K region, the market has transitioned into choppy consolidation, while lower timeframes are now approaching a decisive breakout point. The key question is whether this compression resolves to the upside or results in continuation within the dominant downtrend structure.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum is exhibiting clear consolidation behaviour following its sharp decline. The price action has become increasingly choppy, reflecting equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Instead of impulsive continuation, the market is printing overlapping candles with limited directional commitment.

This consolidation is confined between the $1.8K static support base and the channel’s midline acting as dynamic resistance. The mid-boundary of the descending channel continues to cap bullish attempts, preventing a structural trend reversal. Meanwhile, the $1.8K zone remains a strong demand area that has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure.

As long as the price remains trapped between these two boundaries, the primary scenario is range-bound fluctuation. A confirmed breakout above the channel’s midline would open the path toward higher resistance zones, while a breakdown below $1.8K would invalidate the equilibrium and likely trigger another impulsive leg lower.

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ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the market structure becomes more compressed. Ethereum has formed a clear triangle pattern, with descending resistance and rising support squeezing the price into a narrow apex. This pattern reflects volatility contraction and typically precedes an expansion phase.

The asset is now approaching the final portion of the triangle, suggesting that a breakout is imminent. Given the recent higher lows inside the pattern and the improving short-term structure, the probability of an upside breakout is increasing. The targets are clearly defined on the chart, with the first resistance zone aligned with the previously marked supply region above the pattern at the $2.4K area.

However, failure to break upward and a decisive breakdown below the ascending support would shift momentum back in favour of sellers.

Sentiment Analysis

The Binance ETH/USDT liquidation heatmap reveals significant liquidity dynamics around the current range. A dense liquidity cluster is positioned above the current price, indicating a concentration of short liquidation levels. Such clusters often act as magnets, drawing the price upward to trigger liquidations before a potential reaction.

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At the same time, a developing liquidity concentration below the market reflects the accumulation of long positions. This suggests that traders are increasingly positioning for upside continuation, building long exposure near the consolidation zone.

The interaction between these liquidity pools increases the likelihood of a volatility expansion. A breakout to the upside could trigger short liquidations above the price, accelerating the move. Conversely, a downside sweep could target the long liquidity cluster before a potential rebound.

Overall, Ethereum is in a compression phase. The daily chart reflects equilibrium within a broader downtrend, the 4-hour chart shows a triangle nearing resolution, and liquidity positioning suggests that a decisive breakout move is approaching.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

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AMLBot Says Social Engineering Drove 65% of Crypto Incidents in 2025

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AMLBot Says Social Engineering Drove 65% of Crypto Incidents in 2025

About two-thirds of crypto incidents investigated by blockchain analytics company AMLBot in 2025 were driven by social engineering rather than technical exploits, according to a report based on the company’s internal casework.

AMLBot said 65% of the incidents it reviewed last year involved access and response failures, such as compromised devices, weak verification and delayed detection, instead of vulnerabilities in blockchains or smart contracts.

The company said its analysis drew on about 2,500 internal investigations and should not be read as an industry-wide measure of crypto crime, according to a Wednesday report shared with Cointelegraph.

Primary attack vectors included device compromises via chat scams, impersonation scams, and other investment and phishing scams involving social manipulation.

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Crypto phishing attacks are social engineering schemes that don’t require hacking code. Instead, attackers share fraudulent links to steal victims’ sensitive information, such as the private keys to crypto wallets.

The findings suggest that security improvements at the protocol level may not be enough to protect users if scammers can bypass safeguards by targeting people directly.

Percentage of crypto theft cases by fraud category. Source: AMLBot

Investment scams and phishing lead by case count

Investment scams accounted for the largest share of cases (25%), followed by phishing attacks (18%) and device compromises (13%), as the most damaging categories in terms of case frequency.

Related: 22 Bitcoin worth $1.5M vanish from Seoul police custody

Pig-butchering scams accounted for 8%, over-the-counter (OTC) fraud for 8%, and chat-based impersonation represented 7%, collectively making up the second tier of the most frequent attacks.

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Percentage of crypto theft cases per month. Source: AMLBot

Impersonation linked to $9 million in recent losses

AMLBot traced at least $9 million in stolen digital assets to impersonation-related attacks over the past three months.

Impersonation is the most damaging attack vector in terms of social engineering scams, Slava Demchuk, CEO of AMLBot, told Cointelegraph. “Attackers continue to exploit and trick victims with a ruthless game of charades, posing as trusted entities,” he said. “Sometimes they’re exchange support teams, investment partners, project managers or reps.”

Demchuk urged users not to share private keys or recovery phrases and to be wary of urgent requests involving fund transfers or wallet access, which he said are common entry points for social engineering scams.

Related: Binance confirms employee targeted as three arrested in France break-in

To protect against impersonation attacks, Demchuk urged crypto investors not to share their private keys and recovery phrases. 

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He also advised investors to ignore “urgent requests involving fund transfers of wallet access,” which are usually the first point of contact for social engineering scams.

CertiK reports January spike in crypto losses

Crypto scams saw an uptick in January, when scammers stole $370 million, the highest monthly figure in 11 months, according to crypto security company CertiK.

Source: CertiK

$311 million of the total value was attributed to phishing scams, with a particularly damaging social engineering scam costing one victim around $284 million.

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops

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