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CFTC Sues Kentucky Over State Prediction Market Lawsuits

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Crypto Breaking News

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Kentucky, seeking to halt Kentucky’s efforts to block several prediction market platforms. The action comes after Kentucky sued major players in the prediction market space last week, arguing they operate without the required state gaming approvals.

According to the CFTC, the event contracts offered by platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi fall under the agency’s jurisdiction as federally regulated prediction markets. The regulator’s complaint also challenges a Kentucky law that imposes an excise tax on prediction market transaction fees, arguing the measure is effectively designed to make such platforms unable to operate in the state.

Key takeaways

  • The CFTC filed suit in federal court to block Kentucky’s legal action against five prediction market-related defendants.
  • Kentucky’s complaint targets Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as partners including Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull, alleging “sports wagering” without proper licensure.
  • The CFTC argues its authority is exclusive because the platforms’ event contracts are regulated as swaps and are linked to CFTC-designated contract markets.
  • Kentucky’s 14.25% excise tax on prediction market transaction fees is part of the dispute, with the CFTC claiming it would make operation economically unviable.
  • This is the ninth state case the CFTC has pursued since it began escalating enforcement around prediction market jurisdiction.

CFTC moves to preserve federal control over prediction markets

In its filing, the CFTC asked the court for declaratory and injunctive relief aimed at stopping Kentucky’s state-level case. The lawsuit identifies Kentucky Governor Andrew Beshear, Attorney General Russell Coleman, and the Kentucky Horse Racing and Gaming Corporation, among others.

CFTC Chair Mike Selig said the agency is “firmly committed to maintaining its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets,” calling Kentucky “the latest state attempting to shut down federally-regulated event contracts.” In the same statement, Selig framed the lawsuit as part of the CFTC’s broader effort to protect its federal authority over how these markets are regulated.

The CFTC said its enforcement push has intensified since Selig became chair in December. Kentucky’s case marks the ninth state action the CFTC has initiated over state measures targeting prediction markets.

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Kentucky’s theory: event contracts are “sports wagering” under state law

Kentucky’s earlier lawsuit, filed last week, named Polymarket and Kalshi, along with Kalshi partners Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull. Kentucky argued these entities are “doing business without a Kentucky gaming license or following state regulations,” and that their sports event contracts “fall squarely within the definition of ‘sports wagering’ under Kentucky law.”

The state also pointed to consumer-protection requirements. Kentucky alleged the platforms provide users “few or no resources” to identify or seek help for a gambling problem, as required under Kentucky law.

Sports betting falls under the jurisdiction of the Kentucky Horse Racing and Gaming Corporation, which has overseen the sector since 2023. Kentucky’s complaint effectively treats prediction markets offering sports-linked event contracts as a category of gambling that must comply with Kentucky’s licensing and regulatory framework.

How the CFTC reframes the same contracts as swaps and regulated derivatives

The CFTC’s lawsuit takes a different starting point: it argues that Polymarket and Kalshi operate within the CFTC’s regulatory universe. Specifically, the agency contends that the platforms are designated contract markets under its authority and that their event contracts are “swaps” under federal commodities law.

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On the involvement of Coinbase, Robinhood, and Webull, the CFTC argues these firms are CFTC-registered futures commission merchants capable of offering event contracts in partnership with a designated contract market. This approach ties the platforms’ products to federal derivatives-style oversight rather than state gambling licensing requirements.

At the center of the broader legal clash is jurisdiction—whether states can enforce their gaming rules on prediction markets that, according to the CFTC, are already regulated at the federal level.

Excise tax dispute raises stakes for state enforcement

Kentucky’s efforts aren’t limited to licensure. The CFTC also challenged Kentucky’s recent law imposing a 14.25% excise tax on prediction market transaction fees. The regulator argued the tax is an attempt to make prediction markets economically unviable in Kentucky.

In the CFTC’s view, the tax structure functions as a practical barrier rather than a neutral fiscal policy—an argument that could become important if the court evaluates whether the state measure effectively undermines federally regulated market activity.

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Just weeks earlier, the CFTC similarly sued New Mexico to block state actions aimed at applying state gaming laws to Kalshi, underscoring that the dispute is not confined to one state. The pattern suggests the agency intends to test—through litigation—whether state gaming enforcement can proceed when the CFTC believes federal commodities regulation already governs the same products.

Political backdrop and what to watch next

The Kentucky case lands amid a wider political conversation about prediction market jurisdiction. Earlier reporting in the same coverage noted that President Donald Trump gave the CFTC “moral support,” saying it was “critically important” that the regulator be the authority on prediction markets. The filing also references related public political ties, including that Trump Jr. has invested in and advises groups connected to Polymarket and Kalshi.

For market participants and users, the practical question now is procedural as well as substantive: whether federal court intervention will pause or narrow Kentucky’s enforcement timeline, and how the court evaluates the CFTC’s claim of exclusive federal jurisdiction. Readers should watch for developments on the scope of the injunction the CFTC is seeking, and for whether additional states facing similar disputes will move to accelerate or pause their own prediction market enforcement actions.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto News, June 23: Why is Crypto Down? BTC USD Falls Under 63K, as ETH Hits Triple Bottom in Massive Leverage Flush

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The real reason why crypto is down as BTC USD breaking support while ETH got slammed by cascading liquidations. Nikkei?

Crypto is having another episode this morning. Why is crypto down again, even though it seems to be stabilizing and grinding higher for weeks? BTC USD broke below $63,000 while ETH USD butchered in a more brutal bloodbath.

If we look closer at the onchain data, the main culprit was the same old-fashioned leverage flush. Long positions that had been sitting comfortable has been taken out in waves, with liquidations running at $580 million just on long positions in 24 hours. The dominoes started falling, and as usual, over-leveraged traders were wiped clean.

The real reason why crypto is down as BTC USD breaking support while ETH got slammed by cascading liquidations. Nikkei?
Crypto liquidations, CoinGlass

The other cause is likely coming from Japan. The Nikkei had just printed a fresh all-time high yesterday, only to turn around and give back ground today. Every time this happens, risk appetite across Asia tends to evaporate. Retail traders in Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia started selling into exchanges, and Binance once again took the biggest inflows during the session, most of which quickly turned into sell orders.

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Why Crypto Down? The Usual Suspects Showed Up on Time, Killing BTC USD, Tackling ETH

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Part of the pressure is still coming from spot Bitcoin ETF outflows. The heavy bleeding might have slowed down slightly, but money has kept leaving the products and removed a layer of consistent buying that was propping things up before. Without that bid, the price becomes a lot easier to push around.

Then came the usual geopolitical shenanigans. This time, U.S. Vice President Vance claimed progress on getting nuclear inspectors back into Iran. Iranian officials quickly shut it down. Although this didn’t crash the market on its own, it gave market makers a trigger button to play the news.

BTC USD broke first as expected, dropping under $63k, killing all the supports it has. The combination of steady ETF outflows and leveraged longs getting flushed made it hard for the price to find any real footing.

Bitcoin (BTC)
24h7d30d1yAll time

It’s interesting because the timing was too convenient as Asian markets turned risk-off and started dumping. BTC USD, of course, feels it first because so much of the aggressive volume still runs through platforms that serve that region. ETH USD didn’t put up much of a fight, either. It has now looked even weaker.

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ETH had shown relative strength against USD in recent weeks, but unfortunately, it dragged lower today with little resistance. Following BTC, ETH USD broke faster, but it looks like it printed a triple bottom, which is not bad from a chart perspective. It could be a make-or-break point for Ethereum, though right now it looks like it’s breaking as this is being written.

Ethereum (ETH)
24h7d30d1yAll time

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

Why? What now?

Binance, once again, saw the heaviest activity, with inflows during the Asian session, which turned into selling pressure. This pattern has become pretty consistent on days like this. The Nikkei, reversing after hitting all-time highs yesterday, added to the negative mood, but it’s not all doom.

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In late July and early August 2024, the Nikkei 225 fell sharply from its record highs. The trigger was largely the Bank of Japan raising rates, which caused the Japanese yen to strengthen and forced traders to unwind the famous “yen carry trade.” Interestingly, the Nikkei recovered much faster than many expected. The panic faded, the yen stabilized, and both stocks and crypto ran again over the following weeks.

Today, the move has been much smaller and more contained. Most of the damage is still coming from inside crypto, especially with too much leverage and ongoing ETF outflows. Also, the market has survived much uglier resets than this one.

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The post Crypto News, June 23: Why is Crypto Down? BTC USD Falls Under 63K, as ETH Hits Triple Bottom in Massive Leverage Flush appeared first on Cryptonews.

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CFTC Chair Reiterates Origins in Regulating Agricultural Markets, Despite Crypto and Prediction Markets Push

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CFTC Chair Reiterates Origins in Regulating Agricultural Markets, Despite Crypto and Prediction Markets Push

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig on Tuesday acknowledged fundamental differences in the traditional commodity markets it has long regulated and its more recent role overseeing aspects of the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry.

He told the American Cotton Shippers Association Annual Convention that considering the agency’s roots in overseeing asset classes that range from corn to hog bellies, the perpetual contracts tied to digital assets weren’t “suitable for all asset classes, especially in products like agriculture.”

“We fully recognize and understand that 24-7 trading and the perpetual model is not a natural fit for traditional commodity markets, like agriculture, that observe limited trading hours and rely on physical delivery,” said Selig.

The CFTC chair’s remarks followed the agency approving perpetual futures contracts tied to the spot price of Bitcoin for prediction markets platform Kalshi and issuing a no-action position for similar products on cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase in May. Kraken also subsequently launched perpetual futures trading for US users through its CFTC-regulated platform Bitnomial.

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Related: Crypto lobby urges Congress to pass staking and mining tax bill as is

Selig’s position as sole commissioner at the CFTC, both in claiming that the agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” in overseeing prediction markets and approving crypto perpetual futures, has prompted legal backlash from many companies and state level authorities. Last week, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group sued the agency in the District of Columbia, alleging that the perpetual contract approvals violated the Commodity Exchange Act.

Still no commissioner nominations from Trump

Despite the urging of many US lawmakers, President Donald Trump has made no move to fill out the CFTC’s five-person leadership panel. Selig has been the only Republican commissioner and chair following the departure of Caroline Pham in December 2025.

The US Senate is expected to take up a vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act in a matter of weeks, which could change the roles of the CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission in overseeing digital assets.

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Magazine: Japanese pension fund tips 1% in crypto, G7 urges action on NK hackers: Asia Express

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Senate Democrats Demand Probe of $500M Trump-UAE Crypto Deal

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Crypto Breaking News

A group of US Senate Democrats is pressing Senate Republicans to open hearings into a reported $500 million investment that links a Trump-linked crypto firm to Abu Dhabi royalty, arguing the transaction could raise national security and conflict-of-interest concerns.

In a letter sent Tuesday, the lawmakers urged Republican leadership—who control the Senate’s committee system and set whether hearings move forward—to call witnesses from the Trump administration and to investigate whether the reported deal between the Trump family’s crypto company and a UAE-backed investor influenced decisions made by the president or his officials. The letter also points to broader concerns that the administration has weakened crypto enforcement.

Key takeaways

  • Senate Democrats want immediate Senate hearings into a reported $500 million UAE-linked deal involving Trump family crypto interests.
  • The lawmakers are asking for testimony from Trump administration officials “under oath” regarding the investment and related developments.
  • They cite national security worries, including concerns that sensitive technology could be accessed by China after a major UAE arms and chip agreement.
  • The letter links the investigation request to claims that the administration has loosened crypto compliance and enforcement efforts.

UAE investment into Trump-linked World Liberty Financial under scrutiny

The push follows reporting that an Abu Dhabi investment company backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan—an adviser to the United Arab Emirates’ national security apparatus—signed a deal in January 2025 to purchase a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto platform associated with President Donald Trump, according to the Wall Street Journal as referenced earlier by Cointelegraph.

The Democrats’ Tuesday letter treats the reported transaction as more than an ordinary business arrangement. It argues that Congress should examine both the investment details and whether the deal affected subsequent actions by the president and the administration.

According to the letter, the senators are “deeply concerned” about what the UAE may receive—or may have already received—“at the expense of US national security.” They also argue that Congress must investigate whether the reported investment influenced decisions taken by President Trump.

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National security concerns extend beyond crypto

The lawmakers point to additional context involving the UAE and the US administration. In May 2025, the Trump administration agreed to a major arms and artificial intelligence chip deal with the UAE, a development the senators said occurred “despite concerns raised by US national security officials that China could access the chips.”

President Trump has previously denied awareness of the World Liberty Financial deal, according to coverage referenced by Cointelegraph, which cited Trump’s position that he was not aware of the arrangement.

For the Democrats, the combination of a reported UAE investment in a Trump-connected crypto platform and a subsequent US-UAE technology and defense agreement is the heart of the scrutiny. Their central question is whether there is an asymmetry in benefits—whether the UAE may have obtained preferential access or other advantages in connection with both economic and strategic ties, even if the president says he was unaware of the crypto transaction.

Claims about weakening crypto enforcement fuel the call

Beyond the specific investment, the letter also ties the investigation request to what the senators describe as steps to weaken enforcement in the crypto sector. The Democrats cite concerns about actions such as exempting crypto service providers from certain financial services regulations and disbanding the Justice Department’s crypto enforcement team.

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The senators—Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, Gary Peters, Dick Durbin, and Ron Wyden—appear to be arguing that congressional oversight is needed not only to evaluate potential foreign influence around a high-profile crypto entity, but also to determine whether enforcement posture changes have reduced deterrence or oversight at a time when the sector’s regulatory and compliance framework is evolving.

Previous Democratic probes and pressure campaigns

This request is part of a broader pattern of Democratic scrutiny around World Liberty Financial and Trump-linked crypto interests.

Earlier this year, Cointelegraph reported that Senate Democrats urged the Treasury Secretary to determine whether the UAE stake should be reviewed under the Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS) framework, pointing to the possibility that foreign investment could implicate national security concerns. That push, according to prior coverage referenced by Cointelegraph, specifically urged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to assess whether the deal warranted a CFIUS probe.

Democrats have also raised questions about how regulators have handled enforcement decisions in the crypto space. Earlier coverage referenced by Cointelegraph described senators pressing Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins concerning the decision to drop a fraud case involving Justin Sun, a major backer associated with World Liberty Financial.

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Separately, lawmakers have pursued investigations beyond crypto investment ties. In May, Democratic Senator Peter Welch and Representative Dave Min launched a probe into Trump’s pardons, including the pardon of Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao. That inquiry came after Binance accepted a $2 billion investment from an Abu Dhabi fund in early 2025 and agreed that the funds would be paid in World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1.

Taken together, the new letter suggests Democrats intend to keep pressure on the oversight agenda—moving from regulatory enforcement questions and transaction scrutiny toward potential connections between foreign investment, presidential decision-making, and enforcement posture changes.

What to watch next

The next step hinges on whether Senate Republicans agree to schedule hearings and, if so, what specific questions committees will put to Trump administration officials and other witnesses about the reported UAE investment, related communications, and the administration’s enforcement decisions. With the national security and conflict-of-interest concerns now being formally framed as matters for congressional investigation, the key uncertainty is whether oversight will expand beyond allegations into documented evidence and official timelines.

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Zcash Miner Fortitude to Go Public in HeartSciences Merger

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Zcash Miner Fortitude to Go Public in HeartSciences Merger

Zcash miner Fortitude Mining Holdings is set to merge with medical technology company HeartSciences in a deal that will allow Fortitude to become publicly traded without pursuing a traditional initial public offering.

The all-stock transaction announced Tuesday will see Fortitude’s management team assume control of the combined company, which will operate under the Fortitude name and is expected to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol TUDE, subject to regulatory approval. Existing HeartSciences shareholders will retain a minority ownership stake.

HeartSciences CEO Andrew Simpson hinted at the rationale behind the transaction, saying it would free the company from “the constant cycle of raising capital” while providing what it believes is the best path forward for shareholders.

While the combination brings together two unrelated businesses — Fortitude mines digital assets, while HeartSciences develops AI-enabled cardiac diagnostics — the deal is effectively a reverse merger that gives Fortitude access to the public markets through an existing Nasdaq-listed company. For HeartSciences, which has faced ongoing capital needs, the transaction offers shareholders continued exposure to a publicly traded business while allowing its healthcare unit to continue operating under Simpson’s leadership.

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The structure is similar to other crypto companies that have reached the public markets through mergers rather than traditional IPOs. For example, Bitcoin miner Core Scientific listed via a SPAC merger in 2022, while Cipher Mining also went public through a SPAC transaction.

Shares of HeartSciences, which continue to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker HSCS pending completion of the transaction, rose as much as 91% on Tuesday, according to Google Finance data.

HeartSciences stock. Source: Google Finance

Related: CoinShares stock makes US debut on Nasdaq following SPAC merger

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HeartSciences remained unprofitable before merger deal

HeartSciences has yet to achieve meaningful commercial revenue and has reported net losses for several consecutive years. According to MarketScreener, the company generated minimal revenue in fiscal 2025 while its net loss widened to $8.77 million from $6.61 million a year earlier.

Despite its financial challenges, HeartSciences advanced its product roadmap in fiscal 2025, launching its MyoVista Insights software platform, which is designed to modernize existing ECG management systems.

As a privately held company, Fortitude has disclosed little about its finances. However, it said it had scaled its annualized production to 157,000 Zcash (ZEC) as of May 31. ZEC was last trading at about $413 apiece, CoinMarketCap data showed at time of publication. That gave the token a market cap of $6.92 billion.

Related: Crypto Biz: Is AI the exit strategy for miners?

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Bitcoin could drop to $59,000 in the short-term as liquidity dries up

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BTC slips below $73,000 in continued sluggish trade

Bitcoin and ether are grinding toward the lower end of their recent ranges, major market making firm Wintermute’s OTC trading desk said in a Wednesday note shared with CoinDesk, with both assets caught between last week’s hawkish Fed and the stop-start Iran headlines.

Options markets price a relatively tight move for the next 24 hours. Wintermute’s one-day straddle, a measure of expected swing derived from options pricing, put bitcoin in a $61,242 to $63,563 range and ether between $1,606 and $1,694, implying moves of about 1.9% and 2.7% respectively.

The backdrop is deteriorating. Token correlations are rising, meaning assets are moving together rather than on their own fundamentals, while liquidity is thinning into the summer months with no fresh institutional bid visible in ETF flows.

Wintermute flagged $59,000 as the level to watch, calling it the bear market low and the key support if current pressure continues.

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Three catalysts shape the rest of the week: the U.S.-Iran peace deal and whether it holds, Thursday’s PCE inflation print, the Fed’s preferred measure of price growth, and the quarterly options expiry at month-end, which can amplify moves as traders roll or close large positions.

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CFTC Sues Kentucky to Defend Its Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets

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CFTC Sues Kentucky to Defend Its Exclusive Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets


The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Kentucky on Tuesday to stop the state from using its own laws to shut down federally registered prediction markets. The suit widens a campaign the agency has now pressed against a string of states. The CFTC filed a Complaint for Declaratory and… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Cboe Joins Prediction Market Race With Mini S&P 500 Binary Options

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Cboe Joins Prediction Market Race With Mini S&P 500 Binary Options

Cboe Global Markets has rolled out the first product in Cboe Predicts, its new prediction markets suite, listing binary options on the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP) through Interactive Brokers.

Charles Schwab will add access in the coming months, with other brokers to follow.

Cboe Targets Prediction Markets With Mini-S&P 500 Contracts

According to the press release, the contracts are listed under the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX.

“Cboe Predicts represents the latest expansion of Cboe’s S&P 500 Index (SPX) product suite. XSP allows customers to trade on the performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) but is scaled to 1/10th the size of SPX – making it a smaller, more retail-friendly alternative,” the global markets operator said.

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The contracts let traders take a simple yes-or-no position on where the index closes.  A “yes” position pays $100 if the index settles at or above a chosen level. A “no” position pays the same if it settles below.

Cboe routes the products through leading retail brokers and clears them centrally through the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC).

JJ Kinahan, Cboe’s Head of Retail Expansion, tied the move to demand following zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options. Rob Hocking, Cboe’s Global Head of Derivatives, framed the launch as an effort to raise standards across the sector.

“We look forward to bringing our experience, trusted market infrastructure, and the deep liquidity of the SPX options ecosystem to prediction markets. Our goal is to help set a higher standard for market integrity, product design and investor protection…” he added.

The firm said that its future plans include adding XSP vertical spreads through Cboe’s patent-pending Quoted Spread Book. Cboe is the latest established firm to enter the territory pioneered by Polymarket and Kalshi. Even Meta reportedly wants in with a standalone app.

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The launch lands as prediction markets attract record interest. Open interest across the sector recently hit an all-time high of $1.48 billion.

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OG Bitcoin Selling Falls To 19-Month Low As New Bottom Signal Arises

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OG Bitcoin Selling Falls To 19-Month Low As New Bottom Signal Arises

Bitcoin (BTC) holders who acquired their coins more than five years ago have cut spending to a 90-day average of 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024, according to CryptoQuant data. The slowdown follows three major spending peaks over the past two years, including a high of 3,860 BTC in May 2024. 

At the same time, BTC analysts said that market and profitability indicators are converging in the second half of 2026, putting a new timeline of a potential Bitcoin bottom. 

Bitcoin “OG” holders step back

Crypto analyst Darkfost said the current cycle has produced the highest level of spending by long-term Bitcoin holders on record. The cohort tracked in the dataset consists of investors who acquired Bitcoin more than five years ago. 

Using spent transaction outputs (STXO), which track Bitcoin that has moved across the network, the analyst identified three major spending waves following strong rallies.

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OG Bitcoin Holders selling pressure. Source: CryptoQuant

The 90-day moving average peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025 and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. Individual sessions were far larger, with some days recording output exceeding 10,000, 30,000 and even 142,000 BTC.

That selling pressure has eased sharply. The 90-day average has dropped to 962 BTC, the lowest reading in 19 months. Darkfost said the most expensive coins held by this group were acquired for about $63,200, which is close to current prices. This indicates that many of these holders are choosing not to sell, even though their holdings are trading near their highest cost basis.

Bitcoin Researcher Axel Adler Jr. further noted a split between newer and older BTC investors. The analyst said that Bitcoin’s adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) has fallen to -0.14 from near zero a month ago, showing that the average holder has moved back into unrealized losses as BTC traded near $62,500. However, Adler Jr argued

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“STH capital has shrunk by -56%, while LTH capital has barely drawn down. Weak hands are capitulating. Strong hands have not even flinched.” 

Adler Jr. added that the key metric has spent nearly half of the past three months below zero, indicating sustained pressure on newer BTC market participants rather than a broad capitulation across long-term holders. 

STH vs LTH realized cap analysis. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

Related: Bitcoin slump worsens amid SpaceX rout: Can BTC price hold $60K any longer?

BTC halving cycle points to September bottom, says analyst

Crypto analyst LP highlighted a recurring pattern tied to Bitcoin’s halving cycles. The previous bear market entered a final capitulation phase 826 days after the halving event, followed by a major low and sideways consolidation for 70 to 110 days.

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For the current cycle, the 826-day marker falls on July 6. Applying the same timing range places a potential bottoming window in early September.

BTC bottom analysis by LP. Source: X

The trader noted that the scenario becomes more relevant if Bitcoin continues to trade higher into early July. 

Likewise, BTC trader Titan also identified downside liquidity below the current levels. On the quarterly chart, Bitcoin has an untapped low near $58,900 and an open fair value gap between roughly $49,000 and $58,900. 

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The trader explained that leaving the quarterly low untouched throughout September may draw more attention to that liquidity zone, eventually leading to a market bottom between Q3 and Q4. 

BTC quarterly analysis. Source: X

Related: Bitcoin gets new $54K warning as BTC price hits 11-day low on Asia tech sell-off

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Mark Zuckerberg Ordered Meta Staff to Develop Moneyless Prediction Market: NYT

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Mark Zuckerberg Ordered Meta Staff to Develop Moneyless Prediction Market: NYT

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly directed his staff to create a prediction markets mobile app called “Arena” in what could become a challenge to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

According to a Tuesday New York Times report citing two employees with knowledge of the matter, Zuckerberg ordered the development of the prediction markets app that would allow users to place wagers using a points system rather than money. The app will reportedly function independently of Meta’s existing platforms, including Facebook and Instagram.

The news outlet said insiders described the effort as experimental but a top priority for the company. If launched, it could challenge Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s market share for prediction markets, with Meta reporting its apps drew in 3.56 billion users daily as of March.

Meta has previously attempted to launch products with potential impacts on the crypto and blockchain industry, including its planned Libra stablecoin in 2019 that was later rebranded to Diem and dropped in 2022. In April, the company rolled out USDC payouts for certain Facebook creators in Colombia and the Philippines, with some US lawmakers expressing concerns about Meta’s US plans for stablecoins.

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Related: Republican lawmaker proposes prediction markets insider trading ban, not including White House officials

Meta reportedly planned to cut 10% of its staff in April amid the company pivoting to artificial intelligence, a move expected to affect about 8,000 people.

Source: Kalshi

Prediction markets still under scrutiny in US

While US regulators like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) remain engaged in legal battles with several state authorities over prediction markets, lawmakers are also considering legislation to address issues like insider trading and profiting from nonpublic information while in office.

Some of lawmakers’ concerns stemmed from a soldier allegedly making more than $400,000 on a Polymarket event contract related to the capture of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, removed by US forces in January to face a criminal trial in New York City. The soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, is scheduled to go to trial in December.

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Magazine: Japanese pension fund tips 1% in crypto, G7 urges action on NK hackers: Asia Express

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Bitcoin drops to $62,000 as the chip selloff deepens for a second day

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Bitcoin has shed $5,000 within days. The data says this selloff could worsen

Micron, Marvell and On Semiconductor, each more than doubled in 2026, led the drop. The selloff pulled the S&P 500 down 1.4% and the Nasdaq 100 down 3.3%. An attempted rebound in Asian chip stocks failed to hold on Wednesday, with Taiwan Semiconductor down more than 3%.

Oil kept falling as the other half of the macro picture. Brent crude slipped about 1% toward $76 a barrel as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz became more visible following the US-Iran interim peace deal. A gauge of the dollar climbed to a seven-month high as investors moved toward safer assets.

The crypto-specific signal sits in the fund flows, said Mike McCluskey, co-founder of tx, in an email to CoinDesk. He called bitcoin’s stabilization in the low-to-mid $60,000s a measured response to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn, given how hard such shifts usually hit digital assets.

US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen a record 30-day net outflow of more than $6 billion, which McCluskey described as sustained institutional de-risking by the same buyers that drove this cycle. Until those flows clearly reverse, he said, relief rallies are likely to hit a hard ceiling.

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McCluskey also flagged Friday’s options expiry on Deribit, with roughly $10.6 billion in notional value set to expire. An option is a contract giving the right to buy or sell at a set price, and notional value is the total value of the assets those contracts cover.

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