Crypto activity that could be taxable on-chain reached at least $457 billion worldwide in 2025, but the share likely captured by international tax reporting rules appears relatively small, according to a Chainalysis report on the OECD’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF).

Chainalysis estimates the United States accounted for $112.6 billion of that total, while North America led regions with $134.6 billion, followed by the European Union at $125.1 billion. The report also highlights a structural mismatch: CARF may cover only a limited portion of activity that taxpayers could potentially report.

Key takeaways

• $457 billion of potentially taxable on-chain crypto activity was identified globally in 2025, but CARF reportedly covers only 14% of it.
• CARF coverage begins in 2026, with reporting phased in across 48 jurisdictions.
• Chainalysis’ estimates include realized gains, crypto income (such as mining, staking, and lending), and crypto-denominated payments, but exclude trading on centralized exchanges.
• The gaps largely stem from CARF’s focus on centralized intermediaries—meaning much of DeFi may remain outside the reporting perimeter.

How much crypto activity could be taxable—and where it happens

Chainalysis’ analysis frames “potentially taxable” activity as on-chain events that can fall into common tax categories, including realized gains and income derived from blockchain activity. It also includes crypto-denominated payments—transactions where users may need to consider tax consequences even without traditional “trading” behavior.

Importantly, the report’s scope is not all crypto activity. Chainalysis states that its estimates cover activity across six major blockchains, but exclude trading and other activity performed within centralized exchanges. That means the $457 billion figure reflects an on-chain picture rather than a complete accounting of crypto taxation exposure.

Regionally, the data points to uneven concentration of taxable activity. The US estimate of $112.6 billion sits within North America’s higher total of $134.6 billion, and the European Union’s estimate of $125.1 billion underscores that the issue is cross-border rather than confined to a single market.

Why CARF may miss most of the taxable picture

Chainalysis says that transactions covered by CARF account for just 14% of the potentially taxable on-chain activity it identified, leaving an 86% gap. The report describes the uncovered portion as including activity on decentralized exchanges, peer-to-peer transfers, on-chain income streams, and crypto payments.

CARF itself was developed by the OECD and designed to reduce cross-border tax evasion by standardizing reporting obligations. Under the framework, covered crypto service providers gather customer-related information and report relevant transaction data to domestic tax authorities, which can then exchange that information internationally.

For investors, traders, and builders, the takeaway is not that taxes won’t apply outside CARF. Rather, it’s that the administrative mechanism to identify taxable activity—at least as implemented in CARF—likely won’t reach most on-chain behavior by default.

CARF coverage kicks in during 2026—48 jurisdictions included

Chainalysis reports that CARF data collection began on Jan. 1, 2026 across 48 jurisdictions, including major markets such as the United Kingdom and the European Union. As part of its onboarding requirements, covered platforms must collect additional information, including details about customers and their tax residency.

In practical terms, the framework is built around regulated intermediaries: crypto providers that operate within a compliance framework for customer due diligence and reporting. Tax authorities can then use those reports to identify potential liabilities and share relevant information across borders.

Still, Chainalysis’ estimates suggest that even with expanding CARF adoption, much of what users do on public blockchains—especially outside traditional custody and brokerage models—may not be captured.

DeFi’s structural problem: intermediaries are often absent

One reason CARF’s coverage is limited, according to Chainalysis, is that it focuses on crypto intermediaries. A key explanation came earlier from Colby Mangels, a former OECD adviser who worked on CARF. In January, Mangels told Cointelegraph that CARF was designed around the types of intermediaries that facilitate crypto transactions “as a business.”

Decentralized finance often lacks the centralized operator, custodial relationship, or clear business entity through which reporting requirements typically attach. In the absence of a responsible intermediary that regulators can compel to submit transaction reports, much DeFi activity may fall outside CARF’s reporting perimeter.

Mangels also pointed to a possible path forward: regulators may increasingly look to how DeFi platforms interact with anti-money laundering regimes and when DeFi operators could be treated as regulated crypto service providers. If that happens, the reporting boundary could expand over time—though it remains uncertain exactly when and how such rules will be applied in different jurisdictions.

For market participants, this evolving regulatory question matters because the current gap suggests that taxation compliance will remain uneven. Users interacting heavily through decentralized routes may face more reliance on self-reporting, while activity routed through covered centralized providers is more likely to be documented through standardized reporting channels.

Readers should watch how enforcement and rulemaking develop after CARF’s 2026 rollout: the biggest uncertainty is whether regulators will extend reporting obligations further into DeFi ecosystems, and whether AML-linked approaches will effectively bring more on-chain activity under a comparable reporting umbrella.

How the fight over the Kennedy Center escalated to demolition threats

Bitcoin slipped below $78,000 shortly after the Wall Street open as US inflation data landed higher than expected, pushing risk assets lower and weighing on crypto sentiment. The move followed a stronger-than-forecast July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print—an inflation measure the Federal Reserve closely tracks—setting up a busy stretch for traders with additional catalysts later in the week.

With markets now parsing what the latest inflation signal could mean for the policy outlook, attention is also turning to Nvidia’s upcoming earnings release, widely viewed as a near-term driver of broader market volatility. Meanwhile, technical analysts are warning that recent strength may still fall short of a durable trend change.

Key takeaways

• July US PCE inflation came in above expectations, with the year-on-year rate at 3.7% versus 3.6% expected.
• BTC’s decline accelerated after the Wall Street open, aligning with weaker moves in US equities and gold breaking below $4,600 per ounce.
• Analysts are watching the August monthly close for confirmation or rejection of ongoing technical resistance themes.
• Traders are also looking ahead to Nvidia’s Q2 earnings as a potential volatility catalyst for risk assets.

July PCE surprises higher and pressures risk appetite

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ official release, the July PCE price index increased 0.2% from the previous month, and the same 0.2% gain was reported for the core measure excluding food and energy. On the year, the headline PCE rate rose to 3.7%, edging above the 3.6% forecast.

TradingView data tracked intraday weakness of up to roughly 1% for BTC on the day as US markets opened lower. The same risk-off dynamic also showed up beyond crypto: the article notes US stocks were down at the open and gold dipped through $4,600 per ounce.

For investors, the key point is not only whether inflation is moving, but whether it is moderating quickly enough to influence expectations around monetary policy. The report highlights that markets had been reacting to June’s PCE slowdown—described as the first month-on-month decline in six years—so the July print reduced confidence that progress was continuing at the desired pace.

Commenting on the broader implication, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said on X that US inflation remains “nearly double” the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target, reinforcing the idea that the latest data did not offer immediate reassurance for rate-cut hopes.

Fed week ahead: inflation data before major policy messaging

The PCE release landed with the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium approaching. The article notes that Fed chair Kevin Warsh is expected to deliver the keynote speech on Friday, which places a premium on how markets interpret the inflation trajectory into that event.

In practical terms, this means traders are likely to treat today’s data as an input into the policy narrative rather than a one-off market mover. If inflation readings stay stubborn, markets may scale back expectations for easing; if they ease further, pressure on risk assets could fade. Either way, the upcoming Fed communications increase the probability that volatility could rise again even if crypto’s move already reflects the immediate reaction.

Tech earnings on deck as Nvidia could set the tone

Beyond macro data, the article points to corporate earnings as the next plausible short-term driver for market behavior. It highlights Nvidia’s upcoming Q2 earnings release as a potential catalyst for risk-asset volatility.

While the piece does not claim new results, it cites expectations including quarterly revenue of $92.3 billion and notes that analysts at Raymond James forecast CPU revenue at Nvidia could grow from 3% to 5% of total by 2028, broadening its addressable market.

For crypto investors, Nvidia matters less for fundamentals inside the blockchain sector and more for how large-cap tech performance influences overall liquidity and risk appetite. If earnings are perceived as supportive, BTC could find follow-through buyers; if they disappoint, the broader de-risking impulse may continue to spill into digital assets.

BTC technical outlook: focus shifts to the August monthly close

After the pullback, market participants are increasingly turning to higher-timeframe technical levels rather than reacting to day-to-day candles. The article emphasizes an upcoming August monthly candle close as a key point for determining whether BTC can extend a rebound or whether it remains trapped within a broader downtrend structure.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that BTC/USD could continue forming “lower highs,” referencing a sequence that has been in place since October 2025. In an X post, he said that “a Monthly Close below the blue resistance” would not only confirm another “Macro Lower High,” but also build “confluent resistance” tied to a broader macro downtrend.

Rekt Capital also directed attention to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $77,251. The article notes that Bitcoin’s last monthly close above this level occurred in October 2025. In his view, maintaining a reclaim and hold around that trend metric would be necessary for the rebound to stop being categorized as merely a temporary “relief rally” within a larger bear market.

Notably, this framing sets up a clear debate for traders: whether recent upside is transitioning into a durable reversal, or whether the market is still only bouncing within a corrective regime. Because monthly closes carry more weight than intraday price action, this creates a well-defined checkpoint for bulls and bears alike.

The near-term downside pressure from macro data may not automatically invalidate technical bullish cases, but it increases the odds that resistance levels will be tested more aggressively before the month ends. In other words, the market is now balancing two competing forces—macro-driven risk sentiment and chart-driven trend confirmation.

Heading into the next sessions, traders should watch how BTC responds once the immediate PCE-driven reaction cools, whether Nvidia’s earnings shift broader risk appetite, and—most importantly—where Bitcoin’s price settles relative to the resistance and the 50-week EMA ahead of the August monthly close.

Clue

When things are calm, make a plan for next time

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under $78,000 following Wednesday’s Wall Street open after US inflation data came in above expectations.

Key points:

• Bitcoin sees further downside after US PCE inflation data came in 0.1% higher than expected in July.
• Markets await Nvidia Q2 earnings release as Wednesday’s next potential volatility catalyst.
• BTC price analysis warns over 25% weekly gains forming a bear market relief rally.

Higher-than-expected PCE data pressures Bitcoin

Data from TradingView tracked up to 1% daily BTC price losses, with US stocks also opening lower and gold breaking below $4,600 per ounce.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The downside came after the July print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), known as the Federal Resrve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, hit 3.7% year-on-year, above the anticipated 3.6%.

“From the preceding month, the PCE price index for July increased 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.2 %,” the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) official release confirmed.

US PCE index data (screenshot). Source: BEA

Markets appeared disappointed by the results following June’s unexpected drop in PCE gains, which included their first month-on-month decrease in six years.

“US inflation continues to run at nearly double the Fed’s 2.0% target,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter responded in a post on X.

The PCE numbers come a day before the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole economic symposium, with chair Kevin Warsh due to make the keynote speech on Friday.

Investors are watching for today’s Q2 earnings report from technology giant Nvidia report, anticipated to bring short-term risk-asset volatility. The company is expected to record $92.3 billion quarterly revenue, including CPU revenue that analysts at Raymond James forecast could grow from 3% to 5% of NVDA’s total by 2028, expanding its addressable market.

Related: Supply absorption ‘key question’ as Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80K: Analysis

Analyst sets key targets for BTC price monthly close

Examining recent price action, Bitcoin market participants turned to the upcoming August monthly candle close.

Urging a cautious approach, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that BTC/USD was in danger of continuing its series of lower highs in place since October 2025. 

“A Monthly Close below the blue resistance would not just solidify another Macro Lower High but would also build a confluent resistance in association with the Macro Downtrend,” he commented on X alongside a chart showing a downward-sloping resistance trend line.

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Rekt Capital added that unless the cycle of lower highs was broken, Bitcoin’s rebound over the past week could still be classed as a “relief rally” within the broader bear market. He focused on the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,251 as a further trend line to reclaim and hold going forward, with Bitcoin’s last monthly close above it coming in October 2025.

BTC/USD one-month chart with 50-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

More than three-quarters of Americans view cryptocurrency in workplace retirement plans as risky, as concerns over retirement security mount across the United States, according to a new survey from The National Institute on Retirement Security.

The survey found that 77% of Americans consider crypto in workplace retirement plans risky, including 46% who view it as very risky, while 53% oppose employers offering crypto as an investment option.

The skepticism comes as 80% of respondents said the US faces a retirement crisis, up from 67% in 2020, while 61% expressed concern about achieving financial security in retirement.

Affordability pressures are also weighing on retirement savings, with 68% saying it is becoming harder to prepare for retirement and 77% saying debt prevents them from saving adequately.

The survey was conducted by Greenwald Research between Oct. 24 and Nov. 14, 2025, and included 1,203 Americans aged 25 and older, with results weighted by age, gender and income.

Americans view of crypto in retirement plans. Source: National Institute of Retirement Security

Related: Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125K by late 2026 ahead of cycle peak

US policymakers move to broaden alternative assets in 401(k)s

While the report indicates Americans broadly view crypto as risky for retirement, the Trump administration and federal regulators have moved to broaden access to alternative assets in retirement accounts, bringing crypto and other nontraditional investments further into the retirement savings debate.

The US Department of Labor rescinded guidance in May 2025 that had urged 401(k) plan fiduciaries to exercise “extreme care” when considering cryptocurrency investments, returning instead to a neutral approach that neither endorses nor discourages crypto in retirement plan investment menus.

On Aug. 7, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at expanding access to alternative assets in defined-contribution retirement plans, including investment vehicles that hold digital assets, while directing the Labor Department and US Securities and Exchange Commission to consider regulatory changes to facilitate access.

Trump’s executive order expanding alternative asset access in 401(k) plans. Source: Federal Register

A few days later, the Labor Department rescinded 2021 guidance that had discouraged 401(k) fiduciaries from considering alternative assets, saying investment decisions should instead be evaluated under a neutral, principles-based approach.

More recently, in March 2026, the Labor Department proposed rules outlining how 401(k) fiduciaries could include alternative assets in investment lineups, including safe harbors intended to reduce litigation risks while requiring consideration of factors such as fees, liquidity, valuation and performance.

The proposal has faced pushback from lawmakers, with Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Bobby Scott urging the Labor Department in June to withdraw it, citing crypto’s volatility and what they described as insufficient investor safeguards.

Magazine: SEC’s proposed crypto rules probably won’t spark new ICO boom