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China’s property slump will be worse than expected

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'Land grab' in China's AI space amidst uncertainty about monetization: Barclays

A real estate project under construction along the ancient Huai River in Huai’an City, Jiangsu Province, China on January 29, 2026.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — S&P Global Ratings has lowered its forecast for China property sales this year, barely two months into 2026.

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The firm said Sunday that primary real estate sales will likely drop by 10% to 14% this year, worse than the 5% to 8% decline for 2026 sales predicted back in October.

“This is a downturn so entrenched that only the government has capacity to absorb the excess inventory,” the analysts said in a note. They added that the state could buy more unsold property to create affordable housing, but that so far these efforts have been piecemeal.

China’s property market, once accounting for more than a quarter of the economy, has seen its annual sales volume halve in just four years. Beijing’s crackdown on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth sparked the initial slump, while consumer demand for homes has yet to pick up.

Economists have long warned of overbuilding in China’s property market. But developers have only kept up construction despite the sales slump, leading to a sixth-straight year of completed, unsold new housing, according to the ratings agency.

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“China’s glut of primary housing is keeping a property market recovery out of reach,” the S&P analysts said, noting the oversupply pressures prices to fall by another 2% to 4% this year, following a similar decline last year.

'Land grab' in China's AI space amidst uncertainty about monetization: Barclays

“Falling prices erode homebuyers’ confidence,” S&P’s report said. “It’s a vicious cycle with no easy escape.”

What’s particularly concerning, S&P said, is that the price decline in China’s biggest cities worsened in the fourth quarter of last year. “We previously viewed these markets as healthy, and as the likely starting place of any national property recovery,” the report said.

The cities of Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen reported home price declines last year of at least 3%, the report said, noting Shanghai was the only major city to report an increase, up 5.7% in 2025 from 2024.

Getting worse

China’s property slump progressively worsened throughout 2025.

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In May, S&P predicted a 3% decline in sales of new homes, only to revise that in October to an 8% drop. Sales ended up falling by 12.6% to 8.4 trillion yuan ($1.21 trillion) — less than half the annual sales of 18.2 trillion yuan seen in 2021.

That’s ramping up the pressure on China’s struggling real-estate developers.

If sales end up falling 10 percentage points below S&P’s base case for this year and next, four of the 10 Chinese developers that the company rates could see downward rating pressure, the analysts said.

That excludes China Vanke, once one of the country’s largest developers, which, late last year, asked to delay repayment on some of its debt.

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Chinese authorities have yet to release significant new support for real estate, preferring to double down on efforts to develop advanced technologies.

Last month, U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group said that China’s push into high-tech industries isn’t large enough to offset the country’s property slump, leaving the economy more reliant on exports for growth and more exposed to trade tensions.

Top policymakers are set to release economic goals for the year at a parliamentary meeting next month.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin price stabilizes at $70K as open interest drops

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Bitcoin price attempts $70K base formation as open interest drops across exchanges - 1

Bitcoin price is stabilizing near $70,000 as declining derivatives leverage and falling retail inflows hint at a possible base forming in the market.

Summary

  • Bitcoin is trading near $70,000, close to the upper end of its weekly range.
  • Retail inflows to Binance have dropped sharply while open interest across exchanges continues to trend lower, signaling reduced leverage.
  • Technical indicators show BTC consolidating between $67K and $71K as volatility tightens ahead of a potential breakout.

At press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $70,718, up 4.2% over the past 24 hours. The asset is now near the top of its recent weekly range thanks to the move.

Following February’s volatility, Bitcoin has shown signs of consolidation over the last seven days, trading between $65,962 and $73,669. The cryptocurrency is still 46% below its October 2025 all-time high of $127,080 despite the recent upswing. 

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Alongside the price increase, market activity has increased. With a 49% rise and a 24-hour trading volume of $53.8 billion for BTC, traders appear to be returning to the market.

Derivatives data also shows rising activity. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures trading volume increased 13% to $76 billion, while open interest climbed 5.72% to $46 billion.

Despite the short-term increase, longer-term data show that leverage across exchanges has been trending lower.

Retail flows and leverage show cooling market conditions

A Mar. 10 report from CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha points to a sharp decline in retail Bitcoin inflows to Binance over the past month.

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The analysis tracks cumulative Bitcoin deposits to the exchange over 30 days, separating activity from smaller investors and large holders. According to the data, retail inflows to Binance dropped significantly between Feb. 6 and Mar. 10.

During that period, retail deposits fell from around $14.1 billion to roughly $6.3 billion, a drop of about $7.8 billion. The current level is the lowest recorded since mid-May 2024, suggesting smaller investors are sending fewer coins to exchanges.

Open interest across derivatives markets has also been declining. The report notes that several major exchanges have seen a reduction in futures positioning in recent weeks.

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Bitcoin open interest on Binance was $3.45 billion on March 10, down from the $3.8 billion level noted on April 7, 2025. That earlier reading coincided with a period when Bitcoin formed a major market bottom.

According to Taha, widespread drops in open interest often signify a reduction in traders’ leverage. Once excessive speculation is removed from the market, periods of deleveraging can occasionally result in more stable price action.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is still recovering from the sharp decline seen in February. The price is still below the 20-day moving average, which is the midline of the Bollinger Bands. This level often acts as resistance when markets are trying to recover from a downtrend.

Bitcoin price attempts $70K base formation as open interest drops across exchanges - 1
Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

At the same time, the chart shows that Bitcoin is moving sideways between $67,000 and $71,000, indicating that the market may be establishing a base following the recent sell-off. Several recent candles have longer wicks and smaller bodies, which shows hesitancy among traders.

Volatility has also started to contract. Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, a pattern that comes before a more significant shift in either direction.

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Momentum indicators show a slight improvement. The relative strength index is now hovering around 50, a neutral reading, having recovered from oversold levels near 20–30 during February’s decline. 

$66,000 to $67,000 continues to be the crucial support range for Bitcoin in the near future. Holding this level could help maintain the current consolidation structure.

On the upside, $71,000 to $72,000 stands as the next resistance area. A break above that range could signal stronger recovery momentum, while rejection there may keep Bitcoin trading sideways in the near term.

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Ripple targets Australian financial services license with latest acquisition

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Ripple targets Australian financial services license with latest acquisition

Ripple has announced plans to secure an Australian financial services license by acquiring a local payments firm in the country.

Summary

  • Ripple plans to obtain an Australian Financial Services License through the acquisition of BC Payments Australia.
  • New regulations set to take effect by June 30, 2026, would require crypto companies operating in Australia to obtain a license.

Ripple said it will obtain the AFSL license through the acquisition of BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd, a payments company linked to the European Banking Circle Group. A deal is still underway and is expected to close on April 1 after the standard closing process is finalized.

“Australia is a key market for Ripple,” Ripple’s APAC Managing Director Fiona Murray said in an accompanying statement, adding that it will help Ripple Payments “manage the full lifecycle of a transaction, from onboarding and compliance through funding, FX, liquidity management, and final payout, while integrating both traditional banking rails and digital assets.”

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Ripple’s decision to pursue the license comes as Australia’s financial regulator has unveiled updated regulations for the country’s crypto sector.

Starting June 30, 2026, crypto firms operating in Australia would be required to obtain an Australian Financial Services License before they are allowed to offer certain financial services to local customers.

Over the past years, Ripple has expanded its global regulatory footprint by focusing on securing licenses across key markets around the world.

In 2025 alone, Ripple managed to secure payment licenses in Singapore, the UAE, and the UK. The company was also granted conditional approval for a national trust banking charter by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency alongside a handful of other firms.

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Securing these regulatory approvals has helped Ripple strengthen its push for broader institutional adoption of the XRP (XRP) ecosystem and its flagship stablecoin RLUSD.

As previously reported by crypto.news, Ripple became one of the world’s top most valuable private companies, with its valuation reaching roughly $50 billion.

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Crypto is Just Finance on Different Infrastructure: ASIC

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Crypto is Just Finance on Different Infrastructure: ASIC

Blockchain and crypto are technologies performing the same functions as existing financial infrastructure, so they shouldn’t be treated as separate asset classes when crafting legislation, according to the fintech chief of Australia’s securities regulator.

In a paper presented at the Melbourne Money & Finance Conference on Wednesday, Australian Securities and Investments Commission’s (ASIC’s) head of fintech, Rhys Bollen, said crypto should be regulated on “economic substance rather than technological form.”

Tokenized securities should fall within securities laws, and stablecoins should trigger payment services legislation, Bollen said, while noting that other elements of crypto may be subject to consumer protection laws.

Bollen’s approach contrasts with crypto-specific regulatory frameworks in other countries, such as the CLARITY Act in the US and the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation framework in Europe.

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Bollen argued that the three main financial functions — capital allocation, payments and risk management — have evolved with technological advancements and that distributed ledger technologies, such as blockchain, shouldn’t be treated differently:

“Digital assets largely represent new technological instances of longstanding financial activities. While the mechanisms of issuance, transfer and record-keeping have changed, the underlying economic functions served by these instruments have not.”

“Regulatory systems have repeatedly adapted to technological change – from paper instruments to electronic records – without abandoning foundational principles such as consumer protection, market integrity and systemic stability,” Bollen added.

Australia isn’t crafting one big crypto bill

Australia is already starting to adopt this approach, with the main piece of crypto legislation, the Digital Asset Framework bill, seeking to merely amend parts of the Corporations Act, Bollen said.

“The Bill does not abandon the existing financial services framework. Instead, it introduces tailored amendments that integrate digital asset platforms into the established regulatory architecture.”

The Australian crypto market has also been given guidance through ASIC Information Sheet 225, which states that existing definitions of “financial product” and “financial service” under the Corporations Act can apply to digital assets.

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