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Circle Drop Overdone As Clarity Act Aims As Yield Distribution: Bernstein

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Circle Drop Overdone As Clarity Act Aims As Yield Distribution: Bernstein

Circle’s shares sell-off on Tuesday may have been overdone as investors failed to see that the stablecoin issuer’s core business model remains unaffected by the proposed CLARITY Act, analysts at Bernstein said on Wednesday.

In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia and Harsh Misra said markets are conflating “who earns yield” with “who distributes yield.”

“Circle earns. Coinbase distributes,” the analysts wrote, noting that the draft legislation primarily targets the distribution of yield to users — not the underlying reserve income earned by issuers like Circle.

According to the latest draft, the CLARITY Act would prohibit platforms from offering yield on passive stablecoin balances or products deemed “economically equivalent” to interest. However, the proposal leaves room for activity-based rewards tied to user engagement, such as trading or payments.

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“The stablecoin reward carve-outs could still allow distribution of rewards linked to user activity tiering,” the analysts said, adding that “the market knee-jerk reaction may not be calibrated.”

Circle’s business model relies on earning income from reserves backing USDC (USDC), which are primarily invested in short-term US Treasurys. Bernstein estimates this reserve income reached about $2.6 billion in 2025.

Circle shares fell roughly 20% on Tuesday following the legislative update, despite having gained more than 160% from their February lows. In mid-day trading on Wednesday, CRCL shares had clawed back some of the previous day’s decline, trading up more than 3.5% at last look.

Circle (CRCL) stock is still up 30% year-to-date. Source: Yahoo Finance

Related: Crypto investor sentiment will rise once CLARITY Act is passed: Bessent

Bernstein reiterates bullish outlook on Circle as USDC adoption accelerates

This isn’t Bernstein’s first bullish call on Circle this month. Earlier in March, analysts reiterated their “Outperform” rating on the stock, setting a $190 price target, nearly double current levels.

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The latest note reinforces that view, highlighting strong momentum in USD Coin (USDC). Its circulating supply has grown to $80 billion from roughly $30 billion over the past two years, driven by demand for trading, collateral, payments and global access to US dollars.

Bernstein also pointed to rising onchain transaction volumes as evidence of USDC’s expanding role across crypto markets and cross-border finance.

USDC is currently the second-largest US dollar-denominated stablecoin, behind Tether’s USDt (USDT).

USDC’s transaction volume approached $12 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Source: Bernstein

Related: Deloitte, Stablecorp plan stablecoin infrastructure for Canadian institutions

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Drops to $74K as US-Iran Tensions Flare

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Bitcoin Drops to $74K as US-Iran Tensions Flare

Bitcoin erased its weekend gains as it fell below $74,000 on Sunday after the US military seized an Iranian cargo ship, putting pressure on a ceasefire between the two countries. 

Bitcoin (BTC) had soared above $78,300 late Friday on Coinbase, its highest price since early February, but dropped to between $75,000 and $76,000 over the weekend after Iran said it would close vital oil routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

The cryptocurrency then sank sharply late on Sunday to briefly trade below $74,000 after the US military said it opened fire on, and later seized, an Iranian cargo ship it claimed tried to run its blockade of Iranian ports, with Tehran accusing the US of violating an agreed ceasefire. 

The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which had helped boost the markets and temper oil prices, is set to end on Wednesday.

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Bitcoin’s price in US dollars on Coinbase over the last five days has fallen over the weekend amid rising tensions between the US and Iran. Source: TradingView

Tehran has vowed to retaliate over the US military’s seizure of the ship and has rejected a new round of peace talks slated for Monday in Islamabad, Pakistan, due to the US blockade, Iranian state media reported.

Related: Bitcoin eyes $90K as whales absorb 20x daily BTC supply in 30 days

US stock futures sank Sunday night amid rising tensions, with S&P 500 futures dropping 0.8%, Nasdaq-100 futures falling 0.6% and Dow Jones futures declining 0.9%, or about 450 points.

Oil futures also soared amid the hostilities and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil futures rising over 4.5% to over $95 a barrel.

The Crypto Fear & Greed index rose by two points to a score of 29 out of 100 on Monday, its highest score since late January, but which still indicated a sentiment of “fear.”

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Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt