The Cardano price flashed a textbook bullish divergence on the daily chart, surged 24%, then collapsed. On-chain data reveals a coordinated whale exit worth over $540 million into the rally — even as the Money Flow Index confirmed retail was actively buying the dip.

Here’s what happened, and what it means next.

Daily RSI Divergence Fired & MFI Confirmed the Move

Between December 31, 2025, and February 24, 2026, ADA’s daily chart built a bullish divergence. The Cardano price printed a lower low, between the late-December range and the February 24 low. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, formed a higher low.

When price makes a lower low but RSI makes a higher low, it signals that bearish momentum is weakening even as price continues to fall.

The signal resolved on February 25 when ADA surged nearly 24%, briefly touching $0.31 before posting a long upper wick — a candlestick structure indicating aggressive selling into the highs.

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What makes this setup more interesting is that the Money Flow Index backed it up. The MFI is a volume-weighted momentum indicator that combines both price and volume to measure buying and selling pressure, scored from 0 to 100. Unlike the RSI, which only considers price, MFI factors in trading volume — making it a more direct proxy for whether real capital is flowing into or out of an asset.

Between February 24 and 28, both price and MFI trended higher together. There was no bearish MFI divergence. This means the dips were being genuinely bought with volume conviction, not just price drifting upward on thin liquidity. Someone was actively absorbing sell pressure.

So the RSI divergence fired. MFI confirmed genuine buying support. ADA jumped 24%. And yet, from that February 25 peak, the price fell 17% within days. If the technical setup was valid and dip-buying was real, what killed the rally?

Over 2 Billion ADA Distributed in 3 Days: The Whales Were the Sellers

The answer is on-chain. Santiment’s supply distribution data reveals that between February 24 and 27, every major whale cohort reduced its holdings simultaneously.

The 1 billion-plus ADA cohort executed the largest single exit. It shed roughly 1.02 billion tokens in a single day between February 24 and 25 — dropping from 2.90 billion to 1.88 billion ADA.

The 100 million to 1 billion cohort initially picked up tokens on February 24, likely absorbing some of that initial sell, but then reversed aggressively by February 27, dropping from 3.47 billion to 2.61 billion ADA — a reduction of approximately 860 million tokens.

The 10 million to 100 million cohort shed around 220 million ADA over the same window, declining from 13.90 billion to 13.68 billion. Even the smallest whale tier, the 1 million to 10 million holders, reduced from 5.69 billion to 5.64 billion, offloading roughly 50 million tokens.

In total, approximately 2.15 billion ADA was distributed across all four cohorts within three days. At the average price of roughly $0.27 during this window, that amounts to approximately $540 million in concentrated sell pressure — all hitting the market during a rally that retail was actively buying into.

This is why the MFI data is so revealing. The MFI confirmed genuine buying support. The whale data confirms where the selling came from. Retail and mid-tier addresses were absorbing whale supply on the way up, but $540 million in distribution over 72 hours simply overwhelmed that demand.

Derivatives Data Adds Weight To ADA Breakdown

The derivatives market reinforces this picture. Cardano’s futures open interest had already collapsed from $1.95 billion September peak to below $450 million by mid-February. One of the lowest levels this year. This meant that leveraged retail had largely exited before the divergence even fired.

The buying MFI captured was therefore likely spot-driven: retail accumulating on the dip, using RSI divergence as conviction. But spot buying alone could not absorb the scale of whale distribution.

Cardano Price Action: Lower Lows Persist, Whale Re-Entry Becomes the Key Signal

ADA’s daily price structure remains lower as of March 2 (relative to late December), trading at $0.27, while the RSI continues to print higher lows (again relative to late December). This means the divergence framework is still technically alive, even after the late-February failure. A new swing low could trigger it again.

On the upside, $0.31 is the line in the sand. This was the exact rejection level on February 25. A daily close above this level would mark the first structural break in the downtrend, opening a path toward $0.37.

On the downside, a loss of $0.26 would confirm the weakness. Below that, the $0.23 and $0.21 levels become critical.

If $0.21 fails, deeper Fibonacci extensions at $0.18 (0.618) and $0.15 (0.786) come into play.

But the most important variable for Cardano’s next move is not a price level. It is whether the whales start buying again. As of March 2, Santiment data shows that major holders have not resumed significant accumulation.

If ADA declines toward $0.21 or lower and whale cohorts begin to re-accumulate, as they did earlier, it would represent a considerably stronger setup than February delivered. The moment whales resume buying can be treated as a potential local bottom signal.

For the next divergence to succeed, it needs whale participation as confirmation, not contradiction. Until that happens, the Cardano price structure could continue to point lower.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Editor’s note: Bitcoin closed February with a 15% drop, marking five consecutive monthly losses. The report also highlights a shift as major banks move to integrate crypto into traditional finance, signaling a convergence of fintech and lending rails. With geopolitical tensions and upcoming US data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next meeting, crypto markets remain sensitive to macro signals. This editor’s note sets the scene for the figures that follow and what they may mean for price momentum and policy-driven risk in early 2026.

“Bitcoin has started March on the backfoot amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have triggered a broader flight from risk assets. This week’s US economic data — including ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP employment figures, and non-farm payrolls — will be closely watched ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. While markets are currently pricing in a hold on rates, softer data could increase expectations of a cut, potentially providing much-needed support to cryptoasset prices.”

Key points

• Bitcoin fell 15% in February, extending five consecutive monthly losses.
• If March finishes lower, it would mark six consecutive monthly declines.
• Institutional adoption accelerates: Citibank plans to integrate bitcoin into core banking and custody; Barclays explores stablecoin payments and tokenised deposits.
• Markets await US data (ISM, PMI, ADP, payrolls) and the Fed decision, which could influence crypto prices.

Why this matters

These numbers and moves matter because they illustrate a shift where crypto assets are increasingly considered alongside traditional finance. The data underscores how macro factors and policy expectations can drive crypto sentiment, while bank-led crypto integration signals a broader use case beyond speculation. If banks expand custody, settlement, and compliance workflows for digital assets, market dynamics and liquidity could evolve even as Bitcoin remains volatile.

What to watch next

• March performance and whether Bitcoin ends the month with a sixth straight decline.
• Upcoming US data releases and the Fed meeting shaping risk assets.
• Progress on Citi and Barclays crypto initiatives with potential launches later this year.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

Bitcoin Records Five Consecutive Monthly Losses as Major Banks Move to Integrate Crypto into Traditional Finance

Abu Dhabi, UAE – 2 March 2026: Bitcoin ended February down 15%, marking five consecutive months of losses and a 48% decline from its all-time high of $126,500 in October 2025.

For the first time in its history, both January and February have closed in negative territory in the same year. Should March also finish lower, it would mark six consecutive monthly declines — only the second such occurrence on record.

Simon Peters, Crypto Analyst at eToro, commented:

“Bitcoin has started March on the backfoot amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have triggered a broader flight from risk assets. This week’s US economic data — including ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP employment figures, and non-farm payrolls — will be closely watched ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. While markets are currently pricing in a hold on rates, softer data could increase expectations of a cut, potentially providing much-needed support to cryptoasset prices.”

Biggest Movers

NEAR rose 17% last week, climbing from $1.009 to $1.184 following NEARCON 2026 in San Francisco. Key announcements included the Near.com Super-App, enabling account management across more than 35 blockchains without manual bridging, and “Confidential Intents,” a privacy execution layer designed to shield cross-chain transaction details.

Polkadot (DOT) also gained 17% in anticipation of a major supply reduction on 14 March, which will cut annual token issuance by more than 50% — from approximately 120 million tokens to 55 million.

Institutional Adoption Accelerates

Citibank announced plans to integrate bitcoin into its core banking systems, aiming to make the asset “bankable.” The proposed services include institutional-grade custody of bitcoin, key management and wallet services, and the extension of traditional tax, reporting and compliance workflows to digital assets. The service is expected to launch later this year.

In the UK, Barclays is reportedly exploring the development of a blockchain platform for stablecoin payments and tokenised deposits. Earlier this year, Barclays acquired a stake in Ubyx, a US-based clearing system for digital money, marking its first direct investment in stablecoin infrastructure.

These developments highlight the continued convergence between traditional finance and the digital asset ecosystem.

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Visit eToro’s media centre for the latest news.

A popular trading pair on Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, is experiencing problems with inadequate liquidity and market fluctuations after it was suspended amid ongoing US-led airstrikes in the country.

Nobitex’s Telegram account posted on February 28 that it was suspending the Tether/Toman market until the following morning due to the “current emergency situation and per the directive of the Central Bank.”

When it was reopened, Nobitex claimed there had been “a temporary disruption in the supply and demand balance.”

“This situation led to momentary fluctuations and prices outside the market’s normal trend,” it said, adding that user positions priced at less than 145,000 Tether/Toman were liquidated as a result. 

TD Securities, a major Canadian investment bank with operations across North America, says tokenization may be approaching an institutional turning point following the New York Stock Exchange’s push into tokenized equities.

In recent commentary, TD Securities Reid Noch, vice president for electronic trading, said tokenization is beginning to carry real implications for market structure, pointing to the NYSE’s proposed tokenized equities alternative trading system (ATS) as a key development.

The planned platform would enable 24-hour trading and near-instant settlement of tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), subject to regulatory approval.

Rather than creating a parallel crypto-native marketplace, the venue is designed to operate within existing US market rules while leveraging blockchain-based settlement infrastructure.

Noch described the structure as closer to a “2.0” market shift, where custody and settlement would remain anchored to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), while trading would comply with National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) requirements. This means prices must reflect the best available bid and offer across U.S. exchanges to prevent fragmented liquidity.

Although Noch said early activity is expected to be retail-driven, the broader implications extend well beyond individual traders.

TD Securities’ institutional focus suggests the company sees potential impact on core market plumbing, including trading hours, collateral management, settlement cycles and liquidity, areas that shape how large financial institutions operate.

Related: Crypto’s 2026 investment playbook: Bitcoin, stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized assets

Tokenized equities gain institutional traction

Tokenization accelerated in 2024, led primarily by private credit and U.S. Treasury products, which have accounted for the bulk of onchain real-world asset (RWA) issuance, according to industry data. 

Despite broader crypto market volatility, capital inflows into tokenized assets have continued, suggesting sustained institutional interest in blockchain-based settlement and ownership models.

More recently, tokenized equities have begun gaining traction. Kraken’s xStocks platform has emerged as one of the more visible entrants, reporting more than $25 billion in cumulative trading volume since launching last year. 

Although tokenized equities remain a small fraction of global stock market activity, their growth reflects a broader shift toward bringing traditional financial instruments onchain within regulated frameworks.

Related: Kraken launches tokenized securities trading in Europe with xStocks