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Crypto World

CME is letting traders bet on bitcoin volatility, not price, and two firms have already placed bets

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Bitcoin's price discovery is moving to Chicago

CME’s bitcoin volatility index futures began trading last week, offering investors a new way to trade and hedge price volatility. DV Chain and Monarq Asset Management executed the first block trades, kicking off trading in the contracts.

These volatility contracts track the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVX), which represents the market’s expectations for bitcoin volatility over four weeks. Their debut allows traders to take positions directly on expected price turbulence rather than just price direction.

That distinction matters because most derivatives, including futures, perpetual futures and options, require a view on where price is going. Volatility futures eliminate that complexity, letting traders express a view purely on how BTC will move in either direction.

That opens the door to a new set of hedging and portfolio strategies that were previously difficult to execute on regulated venues. Think of positioning for how much bitcoin might move around events like this week’s U.S. inflation data – traders can go long or short volatility depending on their outlook.

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Shiliang Tang, CEO of Monarq, called the launch a positive step in broadening regulated volatility offerings.

“As bitcoin continues to mature into a more mainstream institutional asset class, the demand for sophisticated risk management instruments grows alongside it. Robust tools like CME Group Bitcoin Volatility futures are exactly what investors need to accurately express their market viewpoints and efficiently hedge their portfolios within a secure, transparent framework,” he said in the press announcement.

Monarq Asset Management is a institutional-focused quantitative and systematic digital asset investment firm managed by former executives from firms such as LedgerPrime, Tower Research, and BlockTower Capital. DV Chain is a liquidity and market-making service provider.

The launch of volatility futures expands CME’s existing product suite comprising bitcoin and ether standard and micro futures and options contracts. The platform’s crypto derivatives business has reached roughly 266,900 contracts year-to-date, up 38% year-on-year, while average daily open interest stands at roughly 274,500 contracts, up 18%.

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The AI Boom Runs on Copper, Yet Its Latest Record Hides a Warning

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Copper Price With DXY Overlay

Copper price set a record near $6.63 per pound on June 2, lifted by the same AI data center buildout powering Nvidia, yet it now trades around $6.27, down roughly 6% from that peak.

Options traders are leaning bullish, but the chart, the dollar, and physical-market hedgers all flash caution. The demand story is real, but the near-term setup, however, looks mixed, and several signals now point in the same direction.

Why the AI Boom Made Copper Indispensable

Every AI data center runs on copper. The power delivery, cooling, and busbars behind the buildout are copper-intensive, tying the metal directly to the same trade lifting Nvidia and the wider AI complex.

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here.

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The scale is large. A single hyperscale AI facility can use up to 50,000 tons of copper, according to the Copper Development Association, against 5,000 to 15,000 tons for a conventional data center.

JPMorgan estimates data centers alone will need about 475,000 tons of copper this year, up sharply from the prior year.

Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has said copper will dominate chip interconnects for as long as possible before any shift to optics. That demand sits on top of a structural shortage, with S&P Global projecting a 10 million tonne deficit by 2040.

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The demand case is not in doubt. Whether the latest push had a solid footing is the real question.

A Double Top and a Rising Dollar Cap the Record

The price chart raises the first warning. Copper formed a double top, two failed attempts to break the same resistance near its record, a pattern that often marks a stalling rally.

A double top is a bearish setup where the price tests a ceiling twice and fails each time. Copper printed exactly that against its record zone in May and early June.

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The dollar deepens the pressure. The US Dollar Index, or DXY, which measures the dollar against major currencies, has climbed as copper stalled.

Copper Price With DXY Overlay
Copper Price With DXY Overlay: TradingView

A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced copper costlier abroad, and rising yields, along with it, pull money toward cash. That backdrop sets up the positioning split.

Options Traders Turned Bullish as Hedgers Backed Away

Here, the divide sharpens. On CPER, the United States Copper Index Fund, an ETF tracking copper futures, the put-call ratio turned bullish. The volume ratio fell to about 0.11 from a 0.27 peak on June 2, with the open interest ratio near 0.19.

CPER Put-Call Ratio
CPER Put-Call Ratio: Barchart

A put-call ratio below 1 means calls outnumber puts, a bullish tilt. The options crowd is leaning into copper even as the chart and dollar warn.

The futures market disagrees. In the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which shows who holds futures positions, commercial hedgers, the physical-market players closest to copper, sit heavily net short and trimmed longs by 3,254 contracts.

Copper COT Report
Copper COT Report: Tradingster

The bullish options bet runs against the smart money.

Speculators Crowded In as the Rotation Signal Still Backs the Bulls

The same report shows where the buying comes from. Non-commercial speculators hold 111,525 long contracts against just 32,692 short, and added 5,852 longs into the highs. Crowded speculative longs can sharpen a reversal if sentiment turns.

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The deciding tell is the Copper-Gold Investor Rotation Index. This is a proprietary BeInCrypto custom gauge that highlights whether investors favor growth through copper or safety through gold.

A rising reading shows growth appetite, a falling one shows a shift to defense.

Copper-Gold Rotation Index
Copper-Gold Rotation Index: TradingView

The index sits near 1.23, close to the top of its range. That matters because in January it fell sharply at copper’s peak, signaling caution despite strong prices, and that loss of growth leadership preceded a correction.

Unlike January, the index is now rising alongside price, not falling against it. That points to growing appetite for growth-sensitive assets, likely tied to the strength in AI stocks driving the broader buildout. For now, the rotation signal sits on the bulls’ side of the split.

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What to Watch Next

The structural case for copper stays intact, carried by an AI buildout (data centers) that shows no sign of slowing. The near-term signals, though, lean cautious, and a few markers will show which way the next move breaks.

If you are tracking copper from here, watch:

  • The Copper-Gold Rotation Index. It is rising in price, backing the bulls for now. A roll lower would warn that growth appetite is fading, as it did in January.
  • The double top near the record. A clean break above it reopens the upside, while another failure confirms the ceiling.
  • The US dollar and yields. Continued strength keeps pressure on dollar-priced copper, while a reversal would remove a headwind.
  • Commercial hedger positioning. If the net-short commercials start covering, it would signal the physical-market players see further upside.

The bullish options crowd and the cautious smart money cannot both be right for long. The next move depends on which camp blinks first.

The post The AI Boom Runs on Copper, Yet Its Latest Record Hides a Warning appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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MicroStrategy Buys Bitcoin 2 Weeks After Selling

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MicroStrategy Stock Performance

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, bought 1,550 Bitcoin (BTC) for about $101 million between June 1 and June 7. The purchase landed two weeks after the firm sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022.

The company announced the buy on Monday, lifting its treasury to 845,256 BTC. It also raised its cash reserve by $100 million to $1 billion, signaling liquidity management alongside its accumulation drive.

Sold High, Then Bought the Dip

The timing drew attention across crypto markets. Strategy sold 32 BTC between May 26 and 31. The average price was $77,135, raising about $2.5 million.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

That move marked its first Bitcoin sale since 2022. The proceeds covered dividends on its STRC preferred shares, according to an 8-K filing.

The fresh purchase came far cheaper. Strategy paid an average of $65,332 per coin. That sits roughly $11,800 below its exit price.

The net effect was 1,518 additional BTC across the two-week window. The small sale equaled just 0.0038% of holdings. It tied to preferred dividend duties, not a strategy shift.

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Even so, the rare disposal rattled investors. MSTR shares slipped, and social feeds filled with predictions of larger sales ahead. The new buy quickly cooled that speculation.

MicroStrategy Stock Performance
MicroStrategy Stock Performance. Source: TradingView

Michael Saylor Signals, CEO Bats Down the Rumors

Michael Saylor set the stage on Sunday. He posted the company’s orange dots chart with the caption “a good time to add more dots.”

His weekly chart ritual has preceded nearly every purchase for more than a year.

“Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256,” Saylor wrote in the Monday post, confirming his weekend signal.

MicroStrategy co-CEO Phong Le, had indicated the same on Sunday, emphasizing the firm’s corporate strategy.

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“Our corporate strategy is to increase net Bitcoin and Bitcoin per share over time. Rumors otherwise are just rumors,” Le stated.

Strategy funded the buy mainly through at-the-market equity sales. It sold about 1.41 million shares for roughly $181 million net over the period.

The approach has built its record Bitcoin holdings through both rallies and slumps.

What Comes Next

Bitcoin traded near $63,148 on Monday, up 1.34% over 24 hours. That price still sits well below Strategy’s $75,680 blended cost basis, leaving the treasury in a paper loss.

Separately, STRC shareholders concluded a vote on Monday over shifting to semi-monthly dividends. The first payment under the new schedule could arrive July 15.

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MicroStrategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder by a wide margin.

The post MicroStrategy Buys Bitcoin 2 Weeks After Selling appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Chinese Man Jailed for 107 Bitcoin Theft After Memorizing Wallet Mnemonic

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Chinese Man Jailed for 107 Bitcoin Theft After Memorizing Wallet Mnemonic

A court in the eastern Chinese city of Qingdao sentenced a man to 10 years and nine months in prison for stealing 107 Bitcoin after memorizing most of a victim’s 12-word wallet seed phrase.

The Licang District People’s Court sentenced the perpetrator, identified as Zhang, to prison and fined him 100,000 yuan (about $14,700) after finding he took control of the victim’s wallet and later cashed out more than $97,000, according to the case summary published by the Supreme People’s Procuratorate’s official WeChat account.

Feng asked Zhang, an acquaintance who had previously helped with Bitcoin transactions, to assist in cashing out 117 Bitcoin in July 2023. While Feng wrote down the wallet’s 12-word recovery phrase during setup, Zhang memorized 11 of them and later reconstructed the final word to transfer 107 Bitcoin.

China has imposed a series of cryptocurrency-related bans over the years, including on mining and trading. However, prosecutors argued that Bitcoin meets the legal definition of “property” and can be the object of theft under criminal law.

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Related: California man jailed for 78 months over $250M crypto theft conspiracy

107 Bitcoins vanished? Source: Supreme People’s Procuratorate’s official WeChat account

Electronic evidence and legal classification

When Feng discovered the missing Bitcoin and reported the theft, investigators traced the transactions and linked them to Zhang.

Zhang admitted transferring the Bitcoin but claimed he had been “protecting” the assets and had not profited, arguing he later lost money speculating on the price.

Prosecutors said electronic records showed Zhang converted the assets and realized more than $97,000 in proceeds.

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Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph that the case shows wallet security threats are often human rather than technical.

While 12-word recovery phrases are computationally secure against brute-force attacks, Kan said 24-word phrases “raise the ceiling further,” making a “reasonable case” for the industry to adopt them more widely.

Kan added that the incident also highlights the risks of sharing recovery phrases in “trusted helper” scenarios, where social engineering can lead to wallet compromise. Most users avoid screenshots but rarely consider who is physically present during wallet setup, even though “momentary exposure is still exposure.”

Asia Express: North Korea denies crypto hacks, Upbit’s bank tests Ripple

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Bitmine’s 5.54M Ethereum bet puts its 5% supply goal within reach

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Bitmine buys $139M in ETH as Tom Lee sees winter ending

Bitmine Immersion Technologies has raised its Ethereum treasury to 5.54 million ETH, putting the company closer to its goal of owning 5% of the network’s supply.

Summary

  • Bitmine added 126,971 ETH last week, lifting its total Ethereum holdings to 5.54 million tokens.
  • More than 4.71 million ETH is staked, generating projected annual revenue of about $230 million.
  • The company now controls 4.59% of Ethereum’s supply and expects to reach 5% during 2026.

Bitmine adds 126,971 ETH during market pullback

In a Monday announcement, Bitmine said its holdings reached 5,543,872 ETH as of June 7. At the company’s reference price of $1,630 per ETH, the position was worth about $9.04 billion. Its wider portfolio included 204 Bitcoin, $247 million in cash, a $180 million Beast Industries stake and an $88 million Eightco position.

The company bought 126,971 ETH during the week, increasing its total from 5,416,901 ETH. As previously reported by crypto.news, the earlier balance represented 4.49% of Ethereum’s supply. Bitmine now says it controls 4.59% of the estimated 120.7 million ETH supply, placing it 92% of the way toward its “Alchemy of 5%” target.

Staked Ethereum reaches 4.72 million tokens

Bitmine reported 4,718,677 staked ETH, valued at about $7.7 billion using the same reference price. That amount equals more than 85% of its total Ethereum holdings. The company uses its Made in America Validator Network, known as MAVAN, and other staking partners to earn rewards while supporting Ethereum transactions.

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“Annualized staking revenues are now projected at $230 million,” Chairman Tom Lee said. 

Bitmine reported a seven-day annualized staking yield of 2.99%. It estimated that staking its full ETH balance through MAVAN and partner platforms could raise annual rewards to about $270 million, though returns may change with network conditions.

A separate crypto.news report examined whether Bitmine’s growing stake could add concentration risks around Ethereum. Bitmine says MAVAN focuses on security, performance and resilience. Its expanding staked balance also makes validator operations a key part of the treasury model.

Tom Lee maintains the 5% Ethereum strategy

Lee said Bitmine increased buying because the latest ETH price decline did not match what he described as stronger Ethereum fundamentals. “We increased our buying,” Lee said, adding that the company expects to reach its 5% supply goal during 2026 as planned. The target would require Bitmine to hold about 6.04 million ETH if supply remains near 120.7 million.

The company links its Ethereum strategy to growing use of public blockchains for tokenized financial assets and artificial intelligence systems. Those remain forward-looking views from Bitmine’s management. Crypto.news recently reported that the company held 5.42 million ETH and 4.72 million staked tokens before the latest purchase.

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BMNR trading remains high as treasury expands

Bitmine reported average daily BMNR trading volume of $829 million over five sessions through June 5. The company ranked its shares as the 148th most traded stock in the United States, behind Workday and ahead of Pfizer.

The company describes its treasury as the largest disclosed corporate Ethereum position. It ranks second among public crypto treasuries behind Strategy, based on figures included in the release. Bitmine also retains cash and smaller equity positions alongside its main ETH holding at present.

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Tesla (TSLA) Stock Climbs as SpaceX IPO Demand Falls Short of Expectations

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TSLA Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Tesla shares advanced 1.4% to $396.65 during Monday’s premarket session, rebounding from Friday’s 6.6% decline
  • SpaceX’s $75 billion public offering has garnered two-times oversubscription — significantly below the four to five times threshold Wall Street considers successful
  • Betting markets assign 43–50% probability to a potential Tesla-SpaceX combination by late 2026 or mid-2027
  • Analysts maintain a collective “Hold” rating on TSLA with a mean price objective of $404.37
  • Company insiders have offloaded 55,218 TSLA shares totaling $20.6 million in the previous three months

Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 1.4% to reach $396.65 during Monday’s premarket hours, recouping losses after Friday’s harsh 6.6% tumble.


TSLA Stock Card
Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Friday’s downturn followed robust employment data that sparked concerns about potential interest rate increases. The tech-heavy Nasdaq plummeted 4.2% during that session, pulling down technology stocks across the board. Broadcom’s lackluster quarterly results further dampened investor sentiment.

By Monday morning, attention had pivoted toward a single company: SpaceX.

Elon Musk’s aerospace venture is scheduled to finalize its IPO pricing this Thursday. According to Reuters, the $75 billion offering has attracted $150 billion in investor interest — resulting in a two-times oversubscription ratio.

While that figure appears substantial on its surface, Wall Street professionals view it as underwhelming. Successful initial public offerings typically achieve oversubscription levels ranging from two to five times. For a high-profile transaction like SpaceX, achieving four or five times oversubscription would signal strong post-debut performance potential.

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It’s worth noting that the week has just begun. Investor appetite can fluctuate considerably in the coming days.

A pressing concern for Tesla shareholders involves whether investors might liquidate TSLA positions to fund SpaceX purchases. Such technical selling pressure could temporarily suppress the stock price, regardless of underlying business performance.

The Tesla-SpaceX Connection Deepens

Both enterprises have been forging stronger ties recently. Collaborative efforts span artificial intelligence initiatives and chip production capabilities. Prediction platforms are assigning meaningful probability to a potential combination — Kalshi estimates 50% likelihood before May 2027, while Polymarket indicates 43% probability before 2026 concludes.

Any potential merger would occur following SpaceX’s market debut. Nevertheless, these probability assessments are capturing market attention.

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Tesla commenced Monday trading at $391.00. The shares currently trade within their 52-week range bounded by $281.85 on the low end and $498.83 at the peak. The 50-day moving average stands at $395.33, while the 200-day average registers $416.11. Entering Monday’s session, TSLA had declined 13% year-to-date while posting a 37% gain over the trailing twelve months.

During its latest quarterly report, Tesla delivered $0.41 in earnings per share, marginally surpassing the $0.39 analyst consensus. Revenue totaled $22.39 billion, falling slightly short of the anticipated $22.96 billion. On a year-over-year basis, revenue expanded 15.8%.

Institutional Holdings and Executive Transactions

Among institutional investors, Manchester Capital Management expanded its Tesla position by 52.6% during the fourth quarter, concluding the period with 18,449 shares valued at approximately $8.3 million. Multiple additional investment firms similarly increased their allocations in recent quarters.

Executive trading activity paints a contrasting picture. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja divested 3,000 shares at $450.00 on May 13th, generating proceeds of $1.35 million. Board member Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares at $378.11 on April 30th. Collectively, company insiders have liquidated $20.6 million in stock value throughout the past ninety days.

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Wall Street opinions remain divided. Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a “Buy” recommendation. Wedbush maintained its “Outperform” stance alongside a $600 price objective. Jefferies continues rating the stock “Neutral.” GLJ Research upholds its “Sell” rating. The aggregate consensus from 44 analysts registers as “Hold” with a $404.37 average target price.

Tesla presently maintains a $1.47 trillion market capitalization and trades at a PE multiple of 358.72.

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Arthur Hayes Denies $2.09 Million HYPE Buyback: Who Is Telling the Truth?

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HYPE Price Performance

According to Lookonchain, a wallet attributed to Arthur Hayes withdrew 33,978 Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens worth approximately $2.09 million from Bybit on June 8. Hayes has since denied making any purchase. 

The reported transaction carries an implied entry price of approximately $ 61.50 per HYPE. That comes just four days after Hayes publicly stated he had exited his entire HYPE position at prices above $72.

HYPE Falls 23% After Hayes Exits, Then a Disputed Re-Entry

Hayes’ exit above $72 preceded a roughly 23% decline in HYPE, which slid below $56 in the days that followed. He attributed his HYPE and NEAR exit to macro hedging and a desire to wait for a better entry point.

Lookonchain identified a withdrawal of 33,978 HYPE from Bybit at an average price near $61.5, linking the address to Hayes through Arkham Intelligence labels.

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If accurate, the sequence would describe a sell-high, buy-lower trade executed while Hayes publicly denied having repositioned.

The response left no ambiguity but offered no additional context or wallet information.

Can On-Chain Data Prove He Bought?

The credibility of the allegation depends entirely on whether the flagged address actually belongs to Hayes. Arkham uses a combination of on-chain data, exchange deposit records, and machine learning to assign wallet labels to known entities.

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The platform targets an accuracy rate of 95% or higher for major figures, but that still leaves room for error.

A mislabeled wallet is a plausible outcome, and no direct confirmation has emerged linking the address to Hayes.

HYPE Price Performance
HYPE Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Arkham’s influencer wallet tracking has previously drawn scrutiny for attributions that required revision after the fact. Without a verified on-chain signature or corroborating exchange data, the claim remains unconfirmed.

HYPE was trading at $61.43 at the time of writing, up 4.58% over the past 24 hours, with a market cap near $13.65 billion and a rank of 10 by market cap.

Hayes has previously held a $150 HYPE price target for 2026. Whether he has re-entered that position remains, for now, an open question.

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Bitcoin Traders see No Bear-Market Bottom Until at Least Q3

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Bitcoin Traders see No Bear-Market Bottom Until at Least Q3

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June with damage control — and new macro lows are still expected this year.

  • Traders see a relief bounce coming next for BTC price action, but the bottom, they agree, is not in.
  • US inflation data will test markets’ resolve as the US-Iran war drags on.
  • Peace-deal pledges by US President Donald Trump do little to stabilize the risk-asset picture.
  • Multiple onchain indicators give analysts hope that the worst of the sell-off is over.
  • Crypto sentiment dives to some of its lowest levels on record.

Bitcoin bear-market bottom is months away

Bitcoin saw modest relief around its latest weekly close, data from TradingView shows, but among traders, the lack of major good news is conspicuous.

“Previous weekly candle closed very bearish, and left an imbalance at 72.5K. As long as we hold the 59.1K previous weekly low, my final long target for this week is that 72.5K imbalance,” trader Lennaert Snyder wrote in one of his latest analysis posts on X.

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X

Trader Mark Cullen warned that even in the event of a relief bounce, the bear-market low was still to come.

“Now $BTC has swept the 60K level, which happened a bit quicker than i had originally anticipated,” he told X followers. 

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“I expect we have a bit more sideways and up for the rest of June. I am not expecting the ultimate market low until middle to late Q3.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X

With slightly different timing, crypto commentator ColinTalksCrypto had similar expectations. BTC/USD, he noted, had closed below a key long-term trend line, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

“Thus, we likely get a bounce for a 1-3 months and then a drop to a new low in Q4,” he argued.

ColinTalksCrypto said that Q4 “has high odds of being the cycle bottom.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CPI and PPI inflation to challenge multiyear highs

May US inflation data will add fuel to market nerves this week, with markets already betting on interest-rate hikes.

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The May prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are slated to reflect the ongoing influence of the US-Iran war on the economy.

Both indexes hit multiyear highs when last updated for April, and the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows expectations of Federal Reserve policy changing quickly.

“The BASE case shows two rate HIKES by early 2027. There is even a rising 17% chance of 3 rate HIKES by April 2027,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in analysis late last week. 

“Just months ago, markets saw up to 4 rate CUTS in 2026 alone.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

As Cointelegraph reported, US stock markets have broadly shaken off inflation risks, hitting repeated all-time highs as tech stocks drive optimism.

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That picture is also looking less stable this week as rate-hike nerves filter through. South Korea’s stock market was halted for volatility on Monday after falling 8% at the open.

Korea Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Something just shifted in the world’s hottest stock market,” Nic Puckrin, founder of crypto platform Coin Bureau, commented on Sunday. 

“Koreans stocks are up 90% this year. But the options chart on the Korea ETF has flipped from bullish bets to downside protection. The is a sign that those still in the trade are no longer confident.”

Market data for iShares South Korea ETF. Source: Nic Puckrin/X

Iran war peace promises fail to tame markets

Coming in tandem with macro pressure are developments in the US-Iran war, which remains an unpredictable market volatility catalyst.

Last week, US President Donald Trump said that the conflict would “work out well,” but the assurances failed to stop new multiyear lows for BTC/USD.

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Exchanges of fire in the interim meant that the sense of uncertainty continued.

Quoted by the Financial Times and others on Sunday, Trump again sought to put a positive slant on events, saying that the latest strikes would not impact ongoing peace negotiations.

“The deal may make it on its own merit, or not, but this will not have any effect on it,” he said in a telephone interview.

Bitcoin appeared buoyed by Trump’s words, which included an assertion that Israel would have “no choice” but to accept an Iran deal.

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Oil prices gained into the new week, with WTI crude returning above $95 per barrel. 

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe warned that the new week would start with a bump.

“I would expect to see prices drop slightly lower going into the Monday open, as the stock markets were falling off a cliff on Friday evening,” he told X followers. 

“After US open, or on Tuesday, this rotates back up and we’ll start to see a glimpse of upwards momentum on Bitcoin.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Indicators point to easing sell pressure

In Bitcoin circles, talk continues to focus on whether BTC has seen its bear-market bottom with the latest dip below $60,000.

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Last week, Cointelegraph reported on an analysis concluding that most prerequisites for a market rebound were already in place.

In its latest research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant added to the list of reasons why the worst of the rout should be over.

“Together, these indicators suggest that speculative excess has largely been removed from the system,” contributor XWIN Japan wrote in a QuickTake blog post. 

“Market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to caution, and investors are entering a period of patience and accumulation.”

The three indicators in question are the spent out profit ratio (SOPR) for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) investors, along with the overall BTC supply held at a loss, as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

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The latter is already on the radar for traders after BTC/USD returned to it for the first time since 2023 last week.

“The LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR ratio has fallen significantly, indicating that long-term holders are no longer realizing the large profits seen during the previous bull market,” XWIN continued about the other components. 

“Supply in Profit has dropped to roughly 47%, meaning more than half of Bitcoin holders are now at break-even or in a loss position. This is a sharp contrast to bull market conditions, when over 90% of supply is often in profit.”

Bitcoin supply in profit (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant also flagged a “demand shortage” thanks to tech stocks stealing the limelight from crypto as a whole.

Sentiment reflects “widespread despair” opportunity

Crypto market sentiment has returned to single figures, per data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index — but a buying opportunity could be already here.

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Related: Bitcoin risks new purge with bear-market losses still $35B below 2022 total

The Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine the overall market mood, measured 8/100 on Monday — well within its “extreme fear” zone.

Such a low score was last seen at the start of April, and is one of the lowest ever recorded.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Monitoring social media cues, research platform Santiment described the “highest level of pessimism since mid-February.” 

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“Historically, these moments of widespread despair have often appeared close to market bottoms,” it told X followers. 

“When traders begin declaring an asset class ‘dead,’ especially something largely speculative-driven like crypto, it typically signals that many sellers have already exited their positions, leaving less supply available to push prices significantly lower.”

Crypto sentiment data. Source: Santiment/X

In February, when the $60,000 zone first came back into focus, a collapse in sentiment preceded a rebound to the mid-$70,000 range.

“While sentiment alone cannot predict exact turning points, historical patterns indicate that periods when investors are most convinced that crypto is ‘finished’ have frequently provided safer-than-average opportunities for patient traders willing to take the opposite side of the crowd’s emotions,” Santiment added.

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Bybit challenges Wall Street with a massive push into tokenized U.S. stock IPOs

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Bybit challenges Wall Street with a massive push into tokenized U.S. stock IPOs

Bybit, the world’s second-largest crypto exchange by trading volume, has joined the tokenization race to capture the highly-anticipated public listing of SpaceX later this week with its new Bybit IPO Express service.

The Dubai-based exchange is the second crypto exchange to offer tokenized initial public offerings (IPO) following Kraken. Its parent company Payward said it would soon allow its Kraken customers and xStocks alliance members to participate in U.S.-listed IPOs through tokenized shares.

Binance, Bitget and Gate previously offered pre-IPO markets in the form of derivatives. That means investors are not actually buying the actual shares.price. Instead, they are betting on a prediction market or trading IOUs based on what they believed the company would be worth.

Bybit’sIPO services are powered by Payward Services’ xStocks and are eligible retail investors worldwide who can participate in blockbuster IPO projects by subscribing to tokenized representations of publicly traded equities.

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“The launch marks a fundamental step in the convergence of traditional capital markets and crypto-native infrastructure, as exchanges increasingly compete to expand beyond digital asset trading into broader financial services,” Bybit said in its press release.

The aim of such services is democratize access millions of users to participate in IPOs that were previously only available to institutional investors, private banking clients, and select brokerage networks.

Bybit also said that through xStocks’ regulated blockchain, holders of tokenized listed stocks can access extended trading hours, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) composability and flexibility and crypto-native settlement.

“For Bybit customers, it is the first time cryptocurrency exchange users can purchase shares at IPO pricing outside of the competitive secondary market,” the press release added.

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Bybit said the registration period for the SpaceX IPO is from June 7 to 11. Allocation follows on June 11 and 12, the day when the token also becomes publicly available for trading on Bybit spot. Elon Musk’s SpaceX plans a $75 billion IPO on June 12 at a $1.75 trillion valuation, ranking it among the largest ever.

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MSTR buys 1,550 BTC, boosts cash reserves to $1 billion

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Boris Johnson calling Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi’ draws rebuttal from Michael Saylor and others

Strategy (MSTR) acquired 1,550 bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC, according to a Monday announcement from Executive Chairman Michael Saylor.

The purchase comes after bitcoin fell around 15% last week, briefly trading below $60,000 before rebounding above $62,000. The decline in bitcoin price followed, at least partially, after Saylor sold 32 bitcoin on June 1.

The latest acquisition marks the first buy since the company’s bitcoin sale and expands Strategy’s reserve while also adding to its balance sheet liquidity.

The company disclosed that it increased its U.S. dollar reserves by $100 million, bringing total cash reserves to $1 billion. To fund both initiatives, Strategy issued $181 million of common stock during the period.

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The latest purchase was made at an average price of $65,332 per bitcoin, below Strategy’s overall average acquisition price of $75,680. Following the purchase, the company holds 845,256 BTC acquired for just under $64 billion.

Read more: Michael Saylor revives bitcoin-buy speculation as scrutiny over Strategy grows

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Why a hidden math metric shows bitcoin may be getting too cheap for investors to ignore

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Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score. (TradingView)

After a massive selloff last week, one of bitcoin’s closely watched onchain metrics is approaching a threshold that has historically marked bear market bottoms.

The metric is called the market value-to-realized value (MVRV) Z-Score. Every major bitcoin cycle bottom has coincided with the Z-Score touching or briefly dipping below zero (into the green zone, in the chart).

Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score. (TradingView)

And right now, it is knocking on the door of the zone that has coincided with the lowest point of previous bear markets. It happened in 2011-2012 when bitcoin saw its first major crash. It happened again in 2014 and late 2018. Most recently, it fell below zero in the second half of 2022, marking a price bottom that paved the way for a three-year bull run.

What is the MVRV Z-Score

The metric compares the deviation of bitcoin’s market value – what the token is worth right now based on the current market price – from it’s realized price.

The second figure, widely considered close to fair value, is obtained by averaging the prices of every bitcoin since the last time it was transacted onchain.

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When the market price is far above fair value, bitcoin is considered expensive relative to its own history. When the market price falls toward or below the fair value, bitcoin is cheap. The Z-Score takes the difference between those two numbers and measures how extreme it is statistically.

The result is a single line that cuts through the noise of day-to-day price action and shows where the price is relative to the broader market cycle. A high Z-Score means the market is running hot, and a low or below-zero score means the opposite.

According to BitBo, the Z-Score is currently at 0.24, just above the upper boundary of the historically significant “green zone,” which begins at approximately 0 and extends slightly below zero.

In other words, it’s very close to the “accumulation” zone. To be clear, this is not a price level, but only a measure of how stretched or compressed bitcoin’s market value is relative to its realized value.

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Absolute bottom?

However, the bottom might not be in just yet, as the behavior of wallet holders suggests there might still be a bit more selling needed for it to be truly in.

Onchain data suggests that Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV), which measures the profitability of coins held for at least 155 days, and Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV), which focuses on coins held for less than 155 days, haven’t converged yet.

When these two data points close the gap, historically, a major cycle low forms. This was previously seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022.

LTH/STH MVRV (Glassnode)

However, currently, STH-MVRV stands at 0.84, while LTH-MVRV remains elevated at 1.29. Meaning long-term holders are still sitting on relatively large unrealized profits, indicating that further downside in bitcoin may be required before a typical bear market bottom is established.

While it is impossible to time market bottoms, after the brutal selling last week that wiped hundreds of billions off crypto’s market value, conditions that have historically preceded recoveries are beginning to emerge.

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Read more: Bitcoin, ether eye worst weekly rout since FTX collapse as cryptos shed $390 billion

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