Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $79,800 on Thursday after being rejected at a key dynamic resistance level. The pullback occurred despite the weekly spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows surging past $1 billion for the first time since January, but technical data suggests the correction may be short-lived. 

Bearish divergences point to where BTC price may go

Bitcoin’s dip below $80,000 came amid a bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) on the one-hour and four-hour charts. A bearish divergence occurs when BTC forms higher highs while the RSI weakens across lower timeframes, signaling fading buying momentum during a rally.

BTC/USDT, four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A hold above the weekly open at $78,500 could stabilize the short-term price action. The key technical support range remains between $76,000 and $78,000, where the daily fair value gap (FVG) aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). If the correction continues, BTC could retest the FVG zone before attempting another rebound above its recent high at $82,800.

A fair value gap marks an area where a sharp price movement previously occurred with limited trading activity, leaving an imbalance that often becomes a liquidity zone during retracements.

Crypto trader Jelle said the “200-day MA/EMA cluster” was acting as resistance, while also identifying $78,000 as the first major support area. According to Jelle, a 200-day moving average retest could allow Bitcoin to retest higher price targets.

Meanwhile, crypto trader Killa XBT identified the $76,300 to $74,700 range as a deeper support zone if selling pressure continues. The trader pointed to the weekly open near $78,500 as the main short-term level that bulls are attempting to defend. 

BTC one-day chart analysis by Killa. Source: X

Related: Bitcoin analysts say this level must break for BTC price to confirm bottom

Can spot ETF inflows offset price weakness?

Spot Bitcoin ETF demand strengthened sharply this week. Net inflows reached $1.05 billion, marking the strongest weekly intake since the third week of January. A positive close on Friday would confirm the largest weekly ETF inflow return in nearly four months.

Spot BTC ETF net inflows. Source: SoSoValue

Meanwhile, Swissblock data shows that the Bitcoin Risk Index has reset to near zero, while ETF net flows turned positive again at roughly 3,000 BTC. Historically, elevated risk readings aligned with the ETF outflows and heavier selling pressure across the market. 

Risk index and BTC ETF net flows. Source: Swissblock/X

The resets into the low-risk zone often coincided with renewed accumulation near the major support clusters. The analysis added, 

“That synchronization is still in place. Even when the Risk Index ticked slightly higher last week, ETF selling appeared briefly, but accumulation quickly resumed. That tells us ETF demand is absorbing selling pressure. This remains a flow-driven breakout.”

Related: Bitcoin market dominance moves above 61%: Will altcoins follow?

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Public blockchains make transactions transparent enough to trace, audit and police, but that visibility can come at the expense of user privacy. Traditional compliance systems often address accountability by identifying people, but that can undermine one of crypto’s original promises: the ability to transact without exposing personal identity by default.

According to panelists at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference earlier this week, those tensions are increasingly solvable through an onchain “intelligence layer” that combines hybrid blockchain architecture with wallet-address-level monitoring.The idea is to split the work across different parts of the system. Private permissioned networks can give institutions the accountability and credibility they need, while public permissionless chains can provide liquidity, and blockchain-forensics tools can help platforms screen transactions at the wallet-address level without automatically tying every user to a real-world identity.

Rajeev Bamra, global head of strategy for digital economy at Moody’s Ratings, said the conventional intelligence layer answers three questions: “Who is it? What are they doing? And can I trust the record?” Those have been addressed in traditional finance by banks, custodians, clearinghouses and credit-rating agencies, he said.

Bamra estimated the institutional digital-finance market at roughly $35 billion today, against more than $200 trillion in annual clearing-house flows in conventional finance, with growth of “over 100 or 150%” in the past 18 months. Blockchain architecture, he predicted, will not be uniformly public or private but a hybrid. “Private permission networks are going to offer the accountability, the credibility aspect,” he said, while “the public permissionless brings the liquidity which the private permissions don’t.”

Pauline Shangett, chief strategy officer at the non-custodial exchange ChangeNOW, firmly sided with the user-side argument. “Bitcoin at its core, at its origin was a semi-anonymous digital cash,” she said.

ChangeNOW, which does not enforce KYC by default, works with AML providers and blockchain forensics firms to monitor flows at the wallet-address level. “All of this blockchain forensics infrastructure allows us to not map people who are passing funds through our system, but instead map their addresses,” Shangett said.

When law-enforcement agencies come to ChangeNOW, Shangett said, the company provides transaction data without doxing the person behind the transaction. She said that compromise allows the platform to provide registration-free swaps while still maintaining internal accounting systems and working with authorities when illegitimate funds move through the service.

On regulation, Bamra said cross-border frameworks like the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation and the U.S. GENIUS Act ask the same fundamental questions about asset quality, segregation and liability, but diverge sharply at the specifications layer. “We think there is regulatory convergence in intention, but there’s fragmentation in reality or in execution,” he said.

Shangett ended with a regulatory-liability framing, which she suggested cuts to the heart of where responsibility should actually sit.

“The agents who should be held liable for the regulatory frameworks and the adoption thereof are agents who are dealing with emission and not transmission,” she said.

Fund managers are warming back up to digital assets, with Bitcoin continuing to dominate allocation preferences even as broader crypto sentiment improves, according to a new survey by CoinShares.

The April survey gathered responses from 26 institutional investors overseeing a combined $1.3 trillion in assets under management. Allocations to digital assets remain relatively modest, at around 1%, reflecting what CoinShares described as “typical entry sizing” in the current de-risking environment.

“Bitcoin remains the digital asset with the most compelling growth outlook,” CoinShares head of research James Butterfill wrote in the report. Sentiment toward Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also improved modestly compared with previous quarters.

According to the survey, around 32% of respondents have already invested in Bitcoin (BTC) and 25% have already allocated to Ether.

The findings suggest institutional investors are gradually increasing exposure to crypto amid improving market sentiment, growing adoption of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a more favorable regulatory backdrop.

At the same time, respondents identified internal restrictions and regulatory uncertainty as the main barriers preventing broader adoption. The survey also pointed to a shift away from “legacy altcoins” and toward newer decentralized finance protocols and emerging blockchain sectors.

Fund managers identified Bitcoin as having the strongest growth outlook among digital assets, followed by Ether and Solana. Source: CoinShares

Related: Bernstein cites $4T tokenized credit opportunity for Figure Technology stock

Institutional inflows continue to build as sentiment improves

The survey’s upbeat tone aligns with broader institutional flow trends. CoinShares data recently showed digital asset investment products recording several consecutive weeks of inflows, led primarily by Bitcoin demand.

Crypto exchange-traded products attracted $1.2 billion in inflows through April 27, marking the fourth straight week of gains and bringing total inflows during that stretch to $3.9 billion.

The momentum has extended into early May. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows this week as BTC climbed back above $80,000, according to SoSoValue data.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have risen since last Friday. Source: SoSoValue

The inflow trend also aligns with a recent survey by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon, which found that 73% of institutional investors plan to increase their digital asset exposure this year, with most expecting crypto prices to rise over the next 12 months.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024 has been widely viewed as a turning point for institutional adoption. The ETF structure has also helped reduce operational friction for institutions by offering regulated exposure to Bitcoin without requiring direct custody of digital assets.

Related: Crypto Biz: Capital has no consensus

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

TLDR

• Nvidia stock rose about 3% to $213.53 in early trading after gaining 5.8% in the previous session.
• Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a Buy rating on Nvidia and maintained a $250 price target.
• The bank expects a beat-and-raise quarter based on current supply and demand trends.
• Major technology companies increased their 2026 capital expenditure forecasts to support AI infrastructure.
• Combined spending by Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft could reach $725 billion in 2026.

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Nvidia shares (NVDA) extended their advance on Thursday as semiconductor stocks moved higher. Nvidia stock gained about 3% to $213.53 in early trading after a 5.8% rise on Wednesday. The move pushed the shares back above $200 ahead of the company’s earnings report later this month.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Nvidia Stock Rises as Goldman Backs $250 target

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its Buy rating on Nvidia and kept a $250 price target on the shares. The bank said demand for data center products continues to support upside potential. It also stated that investors may focus on the possible upside to Nvidia’s $1 trillion data center guidance.

The firm expects a “beat-and-raise” quarter based on current supply and demand trends. However, it said expectations remain high, setting a strong bar for further gains. Goldman added that valuation could improve if hyperscalers show stronger profitability and broader enterprise adoption increases.

The bank also cited opportunities linked to agentic systems and server central processing units. It said these trends could expand Nvidia’s reach beyond traditional large-scale buyers. The company will release its quarterly earnings results later this month.

AI Spending Plans Support Nvidia Stock Outlook

Large technology companies recently increased capital expenditure forecasts for 2026. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft raised combined spending projections to about $725 billion. Analysts at Bank of America and Evercore estimate total capital expenditure could exceed $1 trillion by 2027.

This level of spending supports continued demand for Nvidia’s graphics processing units. These chips remain central to artificial intelligence workloads in cloud data centers. As a result, sustained infrastructure investment provides a steady revenue backdrop for Nvidia.

Despite this support, Nvidia stock has trailed several semiconductor peers in recent weeks. Over the past month, Advanced Micro Devices rose about 90%, and Micron Technology gained roughly 76%. In comparison, Nvidia stock increased about 19% during the same period.

Since late April, Nvidia shares have traded mostly flat while Intel and Micron have climbed more than 30%. Advanced Micro Devices also advanced about 20% during that stretch. Market updates highlighted supply constraints in memory chips and progress in internal chip development.

Alphabet continues to develop its tensor processing units for internal use. Amazon advances its Trainium chips to support its cloud operations. These in-house solutions improve efficiency for hyperscalers while introducing competition for external suppliers.

Some analysts now describe Nvidia as a broader proxy for the artificial intelligence sector. They say the market treats the company less as a single chipmaker and more as a sector benchmark. Nvidia will report earnings later this month, providing updated financial details.

Kalshi, the prediction-market platform, has closed a $1 billion Series F funding round at a $22 billion valuation, led by Coatue Management with participation from Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, Morgan Stanley and Ark Invest. The raise more than doubles Kalshi’s valuation in about five months, underscoring a rising appetite among venture investors for prediction markets as retail adoption accelerates.

A Kalshi spokesperson told Bloomberg that the company’s annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $1.5 billion, a milestone investors are watching as the market matures beyond novelty use cases into real-world, scalable finance. The round’s size and backing come as a16z Crypto’s latest fundraising cycle highlighted prediction markets as a key thematic area for institutional capital. For context, a16z Crypto recently raised a multibillion-dollar fund and signaled notable interest in this segment.

Kalshi operates a centralized, federally regulated marketplace that lets users trade on the outcomes of real-world events—ranging from elections and economic data releases to sports. By contrast, Polymarket operates on decentralized blockchain infrastructure. Collectively, Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for the bulk of more than $25 billion in prediction-market trading volume last month, underscoring how the sector has moved into the mainstream of digital finance.

In line with its broader growth plan, Kalshi has pushed deeper into crypto. The company recently appointed John Wang as head of crypto, and Wang told Forbes that Kalshi hopes to have its prediction markets embedded in every large crypto application, signaling a broader strategy to integrate event-based trading into crypto ecosystems.

Regulatory scrutiny and a strategic policy response

Industry observers frame the latest funding as a sign that prediction markets are evolving from retail-oriented entertainment into institutional risk-management tools. Bernstein Research described the space as entering an “institutional era,” driven by demand for bespoke block trades and contract structures designed to hedge macro and geopolitical risk.

However, the regulatory backdrop remains tense in the United States. NPR reports that Kalshi is involved in at least 19 federal lawsuits alleging that some of its event contracts may violate state gambling laws. States including Massachusetts, New Jersey, Arizona, Nevada, Illinois and Connecticut have challenged Kalshi’s operations, arguing that certain sports and event-based contracts amount to unlicensed gambling. Political pressure has also intensified in Washington, with lawmakers calling for tighter oversight amid concerns about “suspicious trades.”

In response to this heightened scrutiny, Kalshi has expanded its policy bench, hiring former Obama adviser Stephanie Cutter as a policy adviser—an addition widely seen as an effort to strengthen ties with policymakers and navigate evolving oversight.

What the market shift means for investors and builders

The momentum behind Kalshi’s funding round and the broader adoption of prediction markets reflect a broader market recalibration. The sector’s move toward institutional-grade products—such as bespoke macro and geopolitical event contracts—could expand the pool of participants beyond retail traders and venture backers to traditional financial institutions seeking hedging tools in volatile environments. The convergence of centralized, regulated platforms with growing crypto integration suggests a hybrid path where compliance and innovation go hand in hand.

For readers tracking the ecosystem, several questions remain pivotal. How quickly regulators will clarify the status of event-based contracts across jurisdictions, and whether other traditional financial players will participate in this space, will shape Kalshi’s path. The crypto push also raises questions about how Kalshi will balance compliance with rapid product expansion across both fiat and crypto rails.

Looking ahead, watchers will evaluate regulatory filings, potential settlements, and the cadence of new product launches that could broaden access to prediction markets. The next set of developments—ranging from policy guidance to potential integrations with major crypto platforms—will help determine whether Kalshi’s ambitious roadmap translates into durable, institution-friendly growth or if regulatory friction slows progress.

Breadcrumbs analyst James Delmore presented a live breakdown of crypto PAC spending at the Consensus Miami 2026 Policy Summit on Thursday.

James Delmore, a research analyst at Breadcrumbs who has tracked crypto industry political spending since the 2024 cycle, took the Consensus Miami 2026 Policy Summit stage on Thursday to lay out where the money is going heading into November. The session arrived as the crypto industry sits on more political capital, literally, than at any previous point in its history.

The industry has committed over $288 million to the 2026 midterm cycle, according to available FEC data, more than double the roughly $130 million spent across the entire 2024 election.

Fairshake, the industry’s flagship super PAC backed by Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz, holds approximately $221 million in unspent funds, making it the fifth most-funded PAC in the country.

Where the money is going

As crypto.news reported, a Fairshake-aligned group spent $514,000 in Indiana supporting Representative James Baird in his primary race. Fairshake and affiliated groups had already spent nearly $30 million on 2026 races by the end of March.

Earlier, Fairshake deployed $10.3 million opposing Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton in a Senate primary, mirroring a similar $10 million attack on Katie Porter in the 2024 California Senate primary.

The political context surrounding the session is defined by the CLARITY Act, which must reach the Senate floor before the August recess or risk losing its legislative window entirely.

As crypto.news noted, Ripple, Coinbase, and Andreessen Horowitz are among the largest backers of the spending push, collectively aiming to ensure the 120th Congress is the most pro-crypto session in U.S. history.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) rolled out a new payments infrastructure for AI agents on Thursday which is built in partnership with Coinbase and Stripe.

AWS explained that autonomous software agents will be allowed to buy APIs, web content, MCP servers and other online services in real time using stablecoins. It added, however, that future versions would eventually support larger purchases such as hotel bookings, travel reservations and merchant payments.

“Amazon Bedrock AgentCore Payments” is designed for AWS described as the emerging “agentic economy”, where AI agents transact independently inside a single execution loop.

The first version of the system focuses on micropayments, allowing agents to instantly pay for APIs, data feeds, paywalled content and other digital services, often for fractions of a cent, AWS said.

Bedrock is built on Coinbase’s x402, the HTTP-native payment protocol for powering agent-to-agent transactions with stablecoins, while Stripe’s Privy wallet is being used as a payment connection.

“There will soon be more AI agents transacting than humans, and they need money that’s built for the internet – programmable, always on, and global,” said Brian Foster, Coinbase’s head of infrastructure growth.

Foster’s words echo those of Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao and of Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson, who agree that shortly all activity on the internet will be conducted by AI agents.

Stripe said this roll-out is part of a broader push to build financial infrastructure for autonomous AI commerce. “For agents to become meaningful economic actors, they need a way to hold and spend money,” said Henri Stern, CEO of Privy, a Stripe company.

AWS added that the platform is protocol-agnostic, though x402 is the first supported standard at launch. The broader goal is to create infrastructure for autonomous software agents capable of completing commercial transactions on behalf of users.

Warner Bros. Discovery, which is already testing Amazon’s Bedrock AgentCore, said it sees potential for agent-driven transactions involving premium content, including live sports and major entertainment releases.