Bitcoin (BTC) “cycle peak buyers” could already be pointing the way to the next bear-market bottom.

Key points:

• Bitcoin hodlers who bought BTC one to two years ago are cooling selling pressure.
• The cohort’s realized losses have led to market bottoms once their uptrend reverses, Glassnode data shows.
• Speculators’ cost basis reinforces the next BTC price battleground at $69,000.

Glassnode: Bitcoin realized loss reversal “worth watching closely”

In an X post on Friday, Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at onchain analytics platform Glassnode, showed a classic bottom signal potentially repeating.

The latest in a series of such signals, the latest puts buyers who bought BTC in the latter part of the bull market in focus.

“One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders,” Cryptovizart wrote.

Here, coins moving onchain at a loss last did so between July 2024 and July 2025. During that time, BTC/USD increased from around $62,800 to $107,000, placing the majority of investors underwater on their allocation.

“As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization,” the post continues.

“Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure.”

Bitcoin realized losses for 1-2 year hodlers (30-day moving average). Source: Cryptovizart/X

An accompanying chart shows a spike in realized losses on a 30-day rolling basis, with the tally recently passing $75 million before beginning a reversal. For Cryptovizart, that feature is key.

“When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market,” they added.

“Worth watching closely.”

Focus shifts to $69,000 BTC price showdown

Hodler realized losses are not the only onchain metric on the radar when it comes to timing the next macro BTC price floor. 

Related: Bitcoin gets new $80K August target: Watch these BTC price levels next

As Cointelegraph reported, stochastic relative strength index (RSI) values on two-month time frames are creating classic market reversal conditions.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, Glassnode meanwhile flagged Bitcoin speculators’ aggregate cost basis as bulls’ next resistance hurdle.

At around $69,000, the cost basis for short-term holders (STHs) also coincides with old all-time highs from the 2021 bull market.

“The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole,” it read.

“A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact.”

BTC/USD chart with cost-basis levels (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

A Bitcoin wallet that had remained inactive for more than eight years has transferred 5,908 BTC worth about $383 million, reviving another long-dormant holding as traders continue tracking large onchain movements.

According to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, citing Arkham data, the wallet identified as “138EM…ReyiT” moved the entire 5,908 BTC balance to a new address at 7:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The coins remain in the recipient wallet, with no signs that they have been sent to a cryptocurrency exchange.

Ostium, a decentralized trading protocol for onchain perpetuals, has paused all trading after security firms reported an apparent exploit tied to its OLP liquidity vault. The pause comes alongside warnings that the incident may be linked to the protocol’s oracle system, which delivers external price data needed for trading.

Blockaid estimated the losses at roughly $18 million, while CertiK put the figure closer to $22 million. Both firms suggested the underlying issue involves a compromise of Ostium’s oracle layer, raising broader questions about the resilience of DeFi protocols whose critical components run outside their core smart contracts.

Key takeaways

• Ostium paused all trading after a reported issue affecting its OLP liquidity vault.
• Security firms Blockaid and CertiK estimated losses at about $18 million and $22 million respectively.
• Both reports pointed to an apparent oracle compromise as the likely driver of the incident.
• Ostium asked users to temporarily revoke token approvals for its contracts while it investigates.

Trading halted after security firms flagged an oracle-linked incident

According to reports from blockchain security companies Blockaid and CertiK, Ostium’s OLP liquidity vault appears to have been exploited. The figures cited by the two firms differ slightly—Blockaid estimated losses at approximately $18 million, while CertiK assessed the impact at roughly $22 million—illustrating the uncertainty that often follows fast-moving investigations.

Both firms attributed the apparent exploit to a compromise of Ostium’s oracle system. Oracles supply offchain or externally sourced price information to onchain markets, and a failure at this layer can undermine the pricing assumptions that perpetuals rely on for liquidations, settlement, and margin logic.

Ostium confirmed the operational response on X, stating that it paused all trading after identifying an issue related to the vault. The protocol later advised users to take an additional protective step: it recommended that users temporarily revoke approvals for its contracts until the team can complete its review of what happened.

“With user security being our first concern, we recommend that all users temporarily revoke approvals for our contracts until we can further investigate the recent incident.”

Why the pause and approvals warning matter for users

In DeFi incidents, the immediate risk is not always limited to the exploited vault itself. When a protocol suspects that permissions may be exposed—or that an attacker could interact with contracts in unintended ways—revoking approvals can reduce the chances of further unauthorized transfers or actions tied to existing allowances.

Ostium’s decision to halt trading suggests it wants to prevent new positions from opening or existing mechanisms from interacting with liquidity while the threat profile is unclear. Importantly, the protocol also said its team is still investigating and has not yet confirmed the root cause or validated the loss estimates provided by Blockaid and CertiK.

That gap—between an “apparent exploit” and an officially confirmed incident report—can be consequential. Traders typically need clarity on whether price data was manipulated, whether funds were drained from a single vault or multiple routes were used, and whether any remaining funds are still at risk. Until those questions are answered, the most practical step for users is to follow Ostium’s own mitigation guidance.

Ostium’s setup and the broader DeFi security problem

Ostium is built on Arbitrum and operates as an onchain perpetuals platform offering leveraged exposure to 75 trading pairs. Those pairs span stocks, ETFs, commodities, indices, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies.

The incident reinforces a pattern that security researchers have highlighted in recent months: DeFi attacks increasingly focus on offchain infrastructure—particularly oracle systems—rather than solely on vulnerabilities within base smart contracts. Even when onchain code is correct, the system can fail if the inputs it depends on can be altered, spoofed, or otherwise compromised.

This is not an isolated event. DeFi security reporting over the past year has repeatedly shown that oracle-related failures, privileged access compromises, and key-management issues can cause outsized damage. In April, Cointelegraph coverage cited DeFiLlama data indicating that crypto hacks produced nearly $630 million in losses during April—its highest monthly total since February 2025. DeFi protocols accounted for the majority of that number, with exploits at KelpDAO and Drift Protocol making up more than 80% of the month’s total.

With the Ostium pause, investors and market participants may want to think about how DeFi systems handle “trusted inputs.” When price feeds are a single point of failure, the operational integrity of decentralized markets can hinge on the security posture of components outside the core trading logic.

Institutional concerns: can DeFi scale if oracle risk remains central?

Beyond immediate losses, incidents like this renew an ongoing debate about whether DeFi is ready for institutional participation. Cointelegraph previously reported concerns about whether DeFi can meet the expectations of institutional risk frameworks, especially as bridge security and cross-layer dependencies continue to show weaknesses.

In an April research note, JPMorgan analysts described bridge security as a key challenge for the sector, calling into question how DeFi could scale for broader institutional involvement. Separately, Cointelegraph noted that shrinking DeFi yields can make security risks harder to justify, and that institutions may struggle to quantify hack risk even when interest in blockchain-based finance continues to grow.

Against that backdrop, the Ostium incident highlights a practical tension: perpetual trading platforms often offer sophisticated exposure, but they also rely on a chain of systems—especially oracles—that may introduce failure modes outside a typical smart-contract audit’s scope.

For builders and risk managers, the next phase will likely focus on operational transparency: what oracle data was used, whether the compromised component was identifiable, and how Ostium’s controls prevented wider contagion. For traders, the key question is whether the pause turns into a prolonged suspension until full verification, or whether the protocol can safely resume with updated safeguards.

Readers should watch for Ostium’s follow-up investigation findings, especially any confirmation of the oracle compromise hypothesis, plus further guidance on whether users must do anything beyond revoking approvals and waiting for resumption of trading.

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.

All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

The U.S. Senate has unanimously approved a nonbinding resolution opposing any federal clemency for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. 

Senators agreed to the measure by unanimous consent on July 15, meaning no senator objected when it was brought before the chamber.

The resolution states that Bankman-Fried should “under no circumstances” receive executive clemency, including a presidential pardon or sentence commutation. The Senate measure does not limit the president’s constitutional pardon power, but it places the chamber on record against clemency for the former FTX chief.

Senate backs bipartisan resolution without objection

The Senate approved S.Res.772, according to the U.S. Senate Daily Press. The measure also states that denying clemency would support the rule of law and the integrity of the U.S. financial system.

Senators Cynthia Lummis and Ruben Gallego introduced the resolution on June 17. Lummis, a Republican from Wyoming, and Gallego, a Democrat from Arizona, serve on the Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee. When introducing the measure, Lummis said Bankman-Fried “had his day in court,” while Gallego called for him to remain imprisoned.

Bankman-Fried continues to pursue a pardon

The Senate action follows Bankman-Fried’s request for presidential clemency. As previously reported by crypto.news, the former FTX chief submitted a pardon application in June while continuing efforts to challenge his conviction and 25-year prison sentence.

His legal options narrowed days later when an appeals court upheld his conviction. As reported by crypto.news, a three-judge panel rejected arguments that the trial court had wrongly limited evidence that Bankman-Fried wanted to present in his defense. The ruling left his conviction and sentence in place, though routes for further review remain available.

FTX collapse remains central to Senate opposition

A federal jury convicted Bankman-Fried in November 2023 on seven fraud and conspiracy charges linked to the collapse of FTX. Prosecutors accused him of moving billions of dollars in customer funds from the exchange to Alameda Research and using the money for investments, political donations and other spending.

A judge sentenced him to 25 years in prison in March 2024. Bankman-Fried has continued to dispute parts of the government’s case and has sought legal and political routes to reduce or overturn his punishment. Federal prison records cited in recent reporting indicate that his projected release date falls in 2044.

Trump’s earlier crypto pardons shape the backdrop

The resolution arrives after President Donald Trump granted clemency to other figures linked to the crypto industry. Trump pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht in January 2025 and later pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao in October 2025.

Bankman-Fried has not received support from the White House. As previously reported, Trump said in January that he did not plan to pardon the FTX founder. A White House spokesperson later referred reporters back to those remarks after Bankman-Fried filed his formal application.

The Senate resolution remains nonbinding and cannot block a president from granting clemency. However, its unanimous passage shows that no senator present objected to formally opposing a pardon or commutation for Bankman-Fried.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to recover moderately following the recent weakening of the US dollar. European currencies have been supported by expectations that US inflationary pressures will continue to ease after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data, reinforcing market hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy. However, the upside potential for both the euro and the pound remains limited amid persistent geopolitical tensions. The United States continues to carry out strikes against targets in Iran, supporting demand for defensive assets and periodically boosting the US dollar.

Today, traders will closely monitor a series of important economic releases from the United Kingdom, the eurozone, and the United States, which could determine the next direction for the major currency pairs.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues to develop after a bullish engulfing reversal pattern while attempting to establish itself above the key resistance level at 1.1460. Technical analysis suggests the pair could extend its advance towards the 1.1540–1.1580 area. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a decisive move below 1.1370.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• 11:40 (GMT+3): Spain 10-year government bond auction;
• 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Retail Sales;
• 15:30 (GMT+3): US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is recovering more strongly than EUR/USD. Buyers have managed to establish the pair above the important 1.3500 resistance level, and positive UK macroeconomic data could pave the way for a further advance towards the 1.3610–1.3680 region. At the same time, after such a rapid rally, a corrective pullback could see the pair retest the 1.3440–1.3480 area, this time as support.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• 09:00 (GMT+3): UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
• 14:00 (GMT+3): NIESR Monthly UK GDP Tracker;
• 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate.

Overall, European currencies retain the potential to extend their recovery as markets continue to price in a more accommodative Federal Reserve. However, today’s economic releases from the UK, the eurozone, and the US could significantly reshape market sentiment. If US data once again disappoint expectations, EUR/USD and GBP/USD may receive additional support. Conversely, stronger-than-expected US figures could revive demand for the dollar and limit further gains in European currencies.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress on 14–15 July, reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation back to target while providing no clear guidance on the future path of interest rates. Meanwhile, June inflation data came in softer than expected, with annual consumer price growth slowing to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, temporarily supporting risk appetite. At the same time, the earnings season got underway, with Goldman Sachs reporting better-than-expected results on 14 July, providing additional support for the Dow Jones Industrial Average index (Wall Street 30 on FXOpen).

Technical Picture

The Dow Jones Index (WS30m on FXOpen) advanced along an ascending trendline from its 23 June low, reaching the 53,400 area on 7 July, marked by the red resistance level. A sharp decline then followed, breaking below the trendline, with prices subsequently consolidating within the range of the large bearish breakout candle. Since then, the index has been trading within the current market profile, compressed between the profile’s upper boundary at 52,770 and the Point of Control (POC) at 52,550, awaiting a catalyst to break out of the current range.

If the bearish scenario unfolds and the price falls below both the trendline and the lower boundary of the market profile at 52,240, market participants might focus on the 51,750 area, where the index could potentially find support during a further decline. The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 55, 49, and 50 respectively, with all three remaining in neutral territory and providing no clear directional signal.

Summary

With the RSI lacking momentum and price remaining confined to a narrow range between the POC and the upper boundary of the market profile, the market appears to be in a pause following the failed trend breakout. A potential catalyst for a decisive move could come from the US June Retail Sales report, due later today, 16 July, while the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on 29 July may provide the next major directional trigger.

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Bitcoin’s latest rebound may lack the buying support needed for a lasting breakout, according to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report.

Bitcoin closed at $65,086 on July 14, gaining 4.4% and recording its highest close since June 22. Bitfinex said softer US inflation data drove most of the move by changing expectations around interest rates rather than attracting steady Bitcoin-specific demand.

The report described the rally as “borrowed strength,” citing limited spot buying, a negative Coinbase premium and inconsistent inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Softer inflation data drives Bitcoin higher

The June Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% from the previous month, while annual inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core inflation stood at 2.6%, below market expectations.

The weaker inflation data reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. According to Bitfinex, the odds of a July rate hike fell from 42% to around 12.3%, while the two-year US Treasury yield dropped as much as 14 basis points.

Bitcoin moved toward $65,000 as Treasury yields declined and the US dollar weakened after the inflation release.

Bitfinex said Bitcoin had shown little asset-specific demand before the CPI report. The firm pointed to ETF outflows, unchanged corporate holdings at Strategy and a negative Coinbase premium as evidence that macro conditions remained the main driver.

Bitcoin ETF flows remain a major test

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $424.7 million in net outflows on July 13, according to the Bitfinex Alpha report. The outflow erased gains from the previous week, which had marked the first positive week after nine consecutive weeks of withdrawals.

The funds then attracted $181.1 million in net inflows on July 14. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $138.9 million of the total.

Bitfinex said future ETF flows will show whether institutional demand can continue beyond the immediate reaction to the CPI report. The firm wants to see steady inflows that continue regardless of short-term price movements.

Strategy also reported no change in its Bitcoin holdings during the latest reporting period. Its holdings remained at 843,775 BTC, while the company raised $466.7 million through an equity offering to support its corporate obligations.

$68,000 to $68,300 becomes Bitcoin’s key test

Bitfinex identified the $68,000 to $68,300 range as Bitcoin’s main decision zone. The short-term holder cost basis stood near $68,073, while the second-quarter opening price sat around $68,266.

The firm said Bitcoin needs sustained ETF demand and stronger spot buying to establish acceptance above this range. A rejection could keep the cryptocurrency within its broader trading range.

Options markets also showed continued caution. Bitfinex said traders were paying higher premiums for put options, which provide downside protection, even as Bitcoin rallied 4.4%.

The report also noted that rising funding rates could add risk if Bitcoin approaches $68,000 without stronger spot demand. Bitfinex said a rise above 15% to 20% in annualized funding near the resistance zone would increase the risk of another pullback.

Macro conditions remain central to the rally

Further inflation data has continued to support risk assets. As reported by crypto.news, softer producer price data also helped Bitcoin trade above $65,000 while reducing expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Bitfinex warned, however, that Bitcoin’s current rally remains closely tied to the interest-rate outlook. The firm said a rise in oil prices or renewed inflation concerns could quickly change market expectations.

The report identified ETF flows, the Coinbase premium and the $68,000 to $68,300 range as the main indicators to watch. Bitfinex remains cautious until Bitcoin shows sustained spot demand that can support prices even when macroeconomic conditions become less favorable.

Base has overhauled its growth strategy after its creator-first approach fell behind competing blockchain ecosystems in prediction markets and perpetual futures, prompting founder Jesse Pollak to step back from leading the Base App.

According to a Wednesday post by Base creator Jesse Pollak on X, the network underestimated the importance of financial applications after betting that creator tools, content, and messaging would bring crypto to mainstream users.

Pollak said the strategy failed as demand for social products “disintegrated completely,” leaving Base behind in sectors that had become more important. While the network launched perpetual futures through Avantis and prediction markets through Limitless, he acknowledged both products trailed larger competitors.

Dune Analytics data shows Base-native prediction market Limitless accounted for just 0.5% of total monthly notional prediction market volume in July.

Source: Dune Analytics.

“We realized how our focus on social had meant that Base had fallen behind in key areas that were now increasingly critical,” Pollak wrote, adding that the network had “made the wrong bet.”

Base hands app leadership back to Coinbase

Alongside the strategic reset, Pollak said he will hand leadership of the Base App back to Coinbase, where Jordan Fish, better known as Cobie on X, will oversee the product. Pollak said he will instead concentrate on developing the Base blockchain.

The announcement comes days after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly admitted the company’s content coin strategy had failed. 

“They didn’t work and we pivoted early this year. We messed up, time to turn the page,” Armstrong said, responding to criticism on X earlier this week

Armstrong also said Coinbase now prioritizes trading, payments, and AI agents, with most of the company’s resources currently directed toward trading infrastructure. He added that payment systems require foreign exchange capabilities, while AI agents can build on both trading and payment tools.

Earlier this year, Base ended its Creator Rewards program and removed its Farcaster-powered social feed as part of the same strategic change. The rewards program, introduced in July 2025, was designed to let creators earn income from engagement, while Pollak described the Base App as an “imperfect Farcaster client.”

The decision follows more than a year of experiments with social products, including Farcaster integration, Zora content coins, and miniapps. Base had promoted those tools as a way to bring crypto to “a billion people,” but both Pollak and Armstrong have since said financial applications offer a stronger path for adoption.

Stablecoins and AI remain part of roadmap

While stepping away from social products, Base continues to expand its financial infrastructure.

Pollak said Base still intends to become “the blockchain for global finance” and “the place that the world’s money settles over the next century,” underscoring the network’s renewed focus on financial use cases over creator-led social experiences.

Last week, the network activated its B20 token standard on mainnet, creating a native framework for stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and other fungible tokens.

A few months earlier, Base introduced Base MCP, a Model Context Protocol tool that lets users manage crypto directly through AI chat interfaces while interacting with protocols including Morpho, Moonwell, Uniswap, Aerodrome, Avantis, Bankr, and Virtuals.

In April, Base said it was upgrading core infrastructure to support what it described as an AI agent economy. Its 2026 roadmap identifies tokenized real-world assets, stablecoins, prediction markets, global markets, and AI-powered applications among its development priorities.