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Crude Oil Tumbles Over 3% on US-Iran Diplomatic Breakthrough Hopes

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Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F)

TLDR

  • Brent crude slipped toward $98 per barrel, WTI approached $93, with both benchmarks losing more than 3% over the week
  • President Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce and stated Iran accepted critical terms
  • Tehran has not publicly verified any agreements, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz
  • IEA cautioned that restoring oil and gas output could require as long as two years
  • IEA and OPEC both project softer global oil demand in the months ahead

Oil prices tumbled on Friday following diplomatic overtures from Washington suggesting a potential resolution to the nearly 50-day US-Iran standoff.

Brent crude declined 1.1% to approximately $98.32 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 1.3% to $89.95. Weekly losses for both benchmarks exceeded 3%.

Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F)
Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F)

The confrontation erupted in February following coordinated US-Israeli strikes against Iran. In response, Tehran severely restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, choking off approximately 20% of worldwide oil shipments. Washington subsequently imposed its own naval blockade.

President Donald Trump adopted an upbeat stance on Thursday, asserting that Iran had accepted previously rejected conditions, notably agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have not publicly acknowledged these claims.

Trump simultaneously unveiled a 10-day ceasefire arrangement between Israel and Lebanon. He extended White House invitations to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun for further discussions.

Incorporating Lebanon into a ceasefire framework represented a critical Iranian prerequisite for wider negotiations. The agreement remained intact through Friday morning.

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“The prevailing narrative has shifted from escalation to stabilization,” remarked Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. “Fear propelled the surge, diplomacy is fueling the pullback.”

Peace Negotiations May Require Months

Several Gulf Arab and European officials indicated that finalizing a comprehensive US-Iran agreement might span approximately six months. They encouraged both nations to prolong the existing ceasefire throughout this negotiation window.

OCBC analysts observed that the US naval blockade reached its fourth day, maintaining Hormuz traffic at virtually stagnant levels. Oil transit through the waterway remains minimal compared to pre-conflict volumes.

Trump expressed confidence he wouldn’t need to prolong the ceasefire to secure an agreement, forecasting a settlement “fairly soon.” He mentioned potentially visiting Pakistan, which facilitated the initial negotiating round, should a deal materialize.

Following weeks of extreme market turbulence, price fluctuations have moderated. Brent oscillated within roughly a $10 per barrel range this week, sharply contrasting with the historic $38 swing recorded in mid-March.

Production Disruptions Could Persist for Years

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol cautioned that restoring a substantial portion of interrupted oil and gas production might extend up to two years. Any recovery would unfold incrementally, he emphasized.

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Both the IEA and OPEC released downwardly revised global oil demand projections for upcoming months, compounding bearish pressure on crude prices.

“Despite some encouraging geopolitical developments, they haven’t resulted in concrete improvements in actual flows,” observed Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.

Authority over the Strait of Hormuz continues unresolved. Iran has indicated intentions to impose transit fees on vessels even following the conflict’s conclusion.

The present US-Iran ceasefire is scheduled to lapse on April 21.

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Crypto World

Crypto Scam Targets Stranded Ships in Strait of Hormuz: Report

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Crypto Scam Targets Stranded Ships in Strait of Hormuz: Report

Fraudulent actors posing as Iranian authorities have reportedly sent messages to shipping companies whose vessels remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, demanding payment in cryptocurrency for safe passage.

On Monday, maritime risk company Marisks issued a warning saying unknown groups had contacted shipowners claiming to represent Iranian security services and requesting transit “fees” in Bitcoin (BTC) or USDt (USDT) in exchange for clearance through the strait, according to Reuters.

“These specific messages are a scam,” Marisks reportedly said, adding that they do not originate from Iranian authorities. Tehran has not publicly commented on the claims.

The alerts come as the strategic waterway remains largely closed following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, previously handled around one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports before hostilities escalated in the region.

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Earlier this month, reports said Iran was considering charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a tariff payable in Bitcoin, with empty tankers allowed free passage while others could be charged around $1 per barrel of oil.

Related: Iran views BTC as strategic asset, but USDt still dominates oil tolls: BPI

Crypto “transit fee” scam demands verification docs

The reported scam messages instruct recipients to submit documentation for verification before being assigned a “fee” payable in cryptocurrency, after which safe transit would allegedly be granted at a pre-agreed time.

In one example cited by Marisks, the message stated that Iranian security services would assess eligibility before determining payment in BTC or USDt, framing crypto transfers as a condition for unimpeded passage.

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Trump says he won’t allow Iran to impose tolls on ships. Source: The Middle East

The company also suggested that at least one vessel recently targeted by gunfire while attempting to exit the strait may have received such fraudulent instructions, though the information has not been independently verified.

Cointelegraph reached out to Marisks for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Related: Bitcoin community weighs in on reports of Iran’s crypto toll for oil ships

Crypto payments to Iran could trigger sanctions risks: Chainalysis

Shipping companies considering paying transit fees in cryptocurrency to Iran could face serious sanctions exposure, according to Chainalysis senior intelligence analyst Kaitlin Martin.

She told Cointelegraph that any payments linked to Iranian-controlled waterways could be treated as “material support,” potentially violating US and international sanctions targeting entities such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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