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Crypto custodian BitGo a potential acquisition target for Wall Street, analysts say

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Crypto custodian BitGo a potential acquisition target for Wall Street, analysts say

Wall Street analysts are betting that BitGo’s push into full-service institutional crypto finance will not only fuel long-term growth but also position the company as a prime acquisition target for traditional finance firms.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel, who has a buy rating on the stock, wrote that the firm’s services could be attractive to traditional firms looking to offer crypto products to their clients.

“We … view BTGO as an ideal M&A target for Wall Street companies expanding into crypto. BitGo offers a full suite of services that could be integrated into traditional prime brokers and new entrants could acquire BitGo to provide these solutions to clients,” the analyst wrote.

BitGo was one of the first digital asset firms to go public this year, providing custody and security services for digital assets, primarily catering to institutional clients. The IPO marked one of the first times public equity investors could gain direct exposure to crypto infrastructure, making BitGo the bridge between traditional finance and digital assets as more financial firms push deeper into the digital asset space.

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The infrastructure play is one of the points Engel said could offer more upside, noting that investors are overly focused on its core custody business rather than BitGo’s “opportunity to cross-sell prime services.” The analyst went as far as comparing it to Galaxy (GLXY) and Coinbase’s (COIN) prime brokerage services and noting that Galaxy’s average revenue per trading counterparty is “~6x BitGo’s, implying significant upside,” for BitGo, if the firm is able to ramp up its services.

‘Attractive’ take over target

The company’s competitive advantage and acquisition potential were echoed by at least one other Wall Street investment bank’s analyst.

“We believe BitGo’s competitive moat is solid, but more importantly we believe the company could make an attractive time-to-market asset for major Tradfi players looking to enter this market in an expedited manner,” said Canaccord Genuity in a note. The analyst has a $15 price target and a buy rating on the stock.

BitGo’s acquisition potential isn’t without precedent.

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In May 2021, Galaxy Digital said it agreed to buy the firm for $1.2 billion, but later abandoned the deal after Galaxy said BitGo had failed to provide financial statements by a deadline at the end of July. With the stock being public, those concerns may no longer be an issue.

BitGo’s stock has dropped more than 40% since the company set its January IPO at $18 per share, now trading near $10.26. Meanwhile, bitcoin has declined about 24% year-to-date, Galaxy fell about 9% and Coinbase tumbled nearly 30% amid a broader crypto market selloff.

The IPO valued the firm at $2 billion, but after the recent selloff, the stock’s market cap is currently about $1.24 billion, bringing it closer to the valuation near the failed Galaxy deal.

However, Canaccord sees BitGo’s underperformance as an overreaction by the market. “BTGO shares… have reacted much more severely than any shorter term P&L trajectory weakness might warrant,” the investment bank’s analyst said, defending the stock.

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BitGo currently has 10 analysts covering the stock, with nine buy ratings and one hold rating, according to FactSet data. Analyst price targets range from $12 to $18 per share, implying the stock could still rise by 17% to 75% from current prices.

Read more: Crypto M&A Heats Up as Big Banks and Fintechs Race to Scale

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Crypto World

Prediction Markets Working Group Will Support Push For Regulatory Clarity

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Prediction Markets Working Group Will Support Push For Regulatory Clarity

Blockchain advocacy group The Digital Chamber has launched a new unit focused on supporting prediction markets and helping gain regulatory clarity for the sector in the US. 

In an announcement via X on Tuesday, The Digital Chamber unveiled the Prediction Markets Working Group, outlining a multi-year plan to bring clarity to what it called a “misunderstood segment of finance.” 

The Digital Chamber said the first course of action was sending a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chairman Mike Selig praising his efforts to maintain federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, while also calling for an end to regulation by enforcement.

“In our letter, we applauded Chair Selig’s recent statements regarding the intent for CFTC staff to provide tailored rulemaking and guidance for this rapidly growing segment of the financial and digital asset industries,” The Digital Chamber said. 

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“For too long, operators in this space have navigated a maze of regulatory ambiguity including unclear overlaps between federal and state regulators,” it added. 

Source: The Digital Chamber 

Moving forward, the group plans to continue engaging with the CFTC, develop policy principles, submit policy recommendations, publish research and build a coalition of industry stakeholders and participants. 

It also mentioned “participating in litigation” via friend-of-the-court briefings to educate courts on what it deems the “CFTC’s historic regulatory exclusivity” over the sector.

Prediction markets are heading to court 

The move comes amid intense scrutiny of the sector from state governments and regulators. 

Kalshi, one of the leading prediction market platforms, was hit with a civil enforcement action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board on Tuesday. The gaming board is calling for an injunction to stop Kalshi from offering “unlicensed wagering” in the state. 

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Both Kalshi and competitor Polymarket have seen multiple state regulators push to stop them from offering markets such as sports contracts in their respective states, arguing that they are offering unlicensed gambling products.  

Last week, Polymarket filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Massachusetts to preemptively block any potential enforcement action, arguing that the CFTC has primary oversight over the sector, not state governments. 

Related: Prediction markets should become hedging platforms, says Buterin

The CFTC chair has also been echoing such sentiments recently, urging state governments to respect the CFTC’s authority and oversight over the sector or risk facing them in court. 

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“Prediction markets aren’t new — the CFTC has regulated these markets for over two decades,” Selig emphasized in a video posted to X on Monday.