Polymarket has launched a new category of prediction markets tied to private companies, allowing users to trade on questions related to pre-IPO companies — a move that could bring greater price discovery to private markets, where valuation data is often limited and opaque.

The new offering, announced Tuesday, was developed in partnership with Nasdaq Private Market, a platform that facilitates secondary trading in shares of privately held companies. Nasdaq Private Market will provide the underlying data and market infrastructure for the contracts.

The markets are designed to reflect expectations around events such as fundraising rounds, valuation changes and other corporate milestones involving startups and late-stage private companies. The launch expands Polymarket’s product lineup beyond its core markets focused on politics, macroeconomic events and public companies.

Source: Cointelegraph

The move is part of Polymarket’s effort to broaden its appeal to financially oriented users and extend prediction markets into private capital markets, where pricing information is often less accessible and less transparent than in public equities.

Polymarket said the rise of so-called unicorns — privately held startups valued at $1 billion or more — has increased demand for market-based forecasting tools tied to private companies. The platform noted that there are nearly 1,600 unicorns worldwide with a combined valuation exceeding $5 trillion, despite access to these companies remaining largely limited to private investors.

Related: Jump Trading eyes Kalshi, Polymarket stakes as institutional interest grows: Report

Prediction markets draw growing institutional interest

Polymarket’s partnership with Nasdaq Private Market reflects the broader institutionalization of prediction markets, as private company data and event-based contracts gain traction among professional investors.

Retail traders still account for the vast majority of activity. An April report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found that retail traders generated 80% of prediction market volume.

Prediction market trading volume in March. Source: Bitget Wallet

Still, Wall Street analysts say institutional participation is increasing as the US regulatory environment becomes more supportive and market infrastructure improves.

Bernstein recently pointed to the first institutional block trade on Kalshi as a milestone for the sector. Block trades are privately negotiated transactions, typically executed by large investors to move significant positions without disrupting the broader market.

Related: SEC delays prediction market ETFs over mechanics and risk concerns: Report

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TLDR

• Flare has integrated D’CENT hardware wallets with its XRP yield vault infrastructure.
• The integration allows users to earn XRP yield while maintaining self-custody.
• Users can access yield products without creating new wallets or managing new chains.
• Flare uses FAssets to convert XRP into FXRP for deployment in DeFi strategies.
• Smart Accounts simplify transactions by removing gas fee and chain switching complexity.

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Flare has connected its yield infrastructure to D’CENT hardware wallets for XRP holders. The update allows users to earn yield while keeping assets in self-custody. The network also introduced the XRP Alliance to unify services for XRP management and earning.

Flare Enables Direct XRP Yield Access Through Hardware Wallets

Flare has integrated its yield system with D’CENT’s biometric hardware wallet platform. As a result, users can access XRP yield vaults without leaving their secure device. The setup removes the need for new wallets or additional blockchain navigation.

The integration allows users to deposit XRP and earn returns directly in XRP. Flare uses its FAssets system to convert XRP into FXRP for DeFi use. At the same time, Smart Accounts simplify gas management and transaction processes.

Flare stated that Smart Accounts reduce friction for new users entering DeFi. The system hides complex steps like gas fees and chain switching. This design supports smoother onboarding for first-time participants.

XRP Alliance Expands Ecosystem Access and Vault Adoption

Flare launched the XRP Alliance alongside the wallet integration. The group connects projects across the XRP Ledger ecosystem. It aims to provide a single interface for managing, swapping, and earning XRP.

The alliance supports users who prefer hardware wallets for security. It brings together services that operate within the XRPL ecosystem. This approach reduces the need for multiple platforms or accounts.

The earnXRP vault serves as the primary product in this rollout. It was developed through a partnership between Flare, Upshift, and Clearstar. The vault reached its 25 million XRP cap within one week.

Flare reported that more than 5,400 users joined the earnXRP vault. Around 98% of these users were new to DeFi platforms. This data highlights early user engagement with the product.

The vault currently offers about 3.4% APY in XRP. Users receive returns without converting their assets into other tokens. Early participants also benefited from waived fees during the first 30 days.

Flare confirmed that users maintain control of their assets during the process. However, the system still relies on smart contracts and DeFi strategies. These elements introduce operational risks tied to the underlying infrastructure.

FAssets convert XRP into FXRP, which interacts with DeFi protocols. This process depends on smart contract execution within the Flare network. Any technical failure could affect asset performance or accessibility.

Flare emphasized that self-custody remains a core feature of the system. Users do not transfer ownership to centralized platforms. Instead, they interact with decentralized infrastructure through their hardware wallet.

The XRP Alliance will continue expanding integrations with XRPL projects. Flare plans to add more tools for asset management and yield strategies. The network has not announced a timeline for future updates.

Bitcoin has cooled from the latest push higher as traders pivot toward liquidity-driven dynamics rather than chasing new all-time highs. Futures and order-book data point to a concentration of buyers around the $68,000–$70,000 zone, suggesting market participants are building and anchoring positions in a corridor that has become the dominant trading focus in recent months.

Analysts tracking on-chain and order-book indicators note the region between $68,000 and $70,000 is now the most densely traded area on the chart since November 2025. The visible range volume profile shows heavy activity in that band, implying many positions were opened or accumulated there over the past several months. Concurrently, the bid-ask ratio has hovered in negative territory, signaling that sellers have been more assertive than buyers as markets hover near liquidation thresholds. A separate liquidation heatmap points to substantial long exposure near $74,700, with the potential for that exposure to rise to around $11 billion if Bitcoin trades toward $70,000 over the next 90 days. Taken together, the data suggests traders are prioritizing deeper liquidity pools and risk management over pressing toward higher levels above $80,000.

Key takeaways

• The $68,000–$70,000 zone remains the most active trading band on the visible range volume profile since November 2025, indicating entrenched liquidity there.
• The bid-ask ratio sits at approximately -0.03, showing selling pressure is currently outpacing aggressive buying as traders position near liquidation levels.
• Liquidation data highlights over $3.4 billion in cumulative long exposure around $74,700, with a potential rise toward $11 billion if BTC weakness extends toward $70,000 within a 90-day window.
• Retail trader sentiment shows a crowded long stance, with Hyblock reporting True Retail Accounts long above 60% and RSI around 74.9, implying a potential for pullbacks if orders unwind.
• Past patterns suggest recoveries have tended to occur when retail long positioning cooled, offering a cautionary frame for the current setup.

Liquidity concentration shapes the near-term outlook

By design, the VRVP (visible range volume profile) highlights where the most trading activity has taken place. In Bitcoin’s current data, the $68,000–$70,000 corridor stands out as the principal hub of activity, signaling that many market participants are comfortable and liquid near these levels rather than chasing fresh highs. This concentration can act as both a magnet and a shield: it provides built-in liquidity for exits but can also cap upside if price action fails to attract new buyers with enough conviction to move beyond the zone.

Long exposure and liquidation risk cluster around key levels

Liquidity risk is not only about where traders want to buy; it’s also about where they are most exposed to losses. CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap shows a significant cluster of long positions near $74,700, underscoring a vulnerable point if the market reverses. The metric estimates more than $3.4 billion in long exposure at that strike, with the potential to swell toward roughly $11 billion if Bitcoin declines toward $70,000 over a 90-day horizon. For traders, this paints a picture of a market that is heavily concentrated at specific strikes, where liquidations could accelerate if price action tests those levels.

Related market coverage from Cointelegraph notes Bitcoin’s price recently stayed below the $77,000 mark as U.S. bond yields hovered near multi-decade highs, a macro backdrop that can amplify drawdowns when risk-off sentiment surfaces. In this context, the above liquidity and liquidation signals reinforce a scenario where the market’s immediate pulse is governed by risk management and depth of liquidity rather than impulsive upside chasing.

Retail sentiment and the risk of a crowded long regime

Hyblock’s metrics add a behavioral lens to the supply-and-demand picture. The platform tracks the share of retail futures accounts that are long, and its True Retail Accounts long percentage has climbed above 60%. In earlier cycles, such “extreme long” conditions tended to precede short- to mid-term pullbacks, with price momentum cooling after retail positioning became crowded. Hyblock also complements its long-term positioning reads with a relative strength index around 74.9, suggesting that retail traders are aligned with a continued move toward the mid-to-upper $70,000s rather than a breakout toward new highs.

Historically, the most pronounced recoveries have emerged when retail longs contracted—often when fewer than about 35% of retail accounts held long positions—before BTC rebounded from local lows. The latest signal — a long-dominated retail base combined with elevated RSI — implies traders should be mindful of a possible consolidation or correction if the market cannot sustain upside momentum. The latest metrics indicate traders are positioned for prices near the mid-$70,000s, which could leave room for a sharper correction if the macro or liquidity backdrop shifts unfavorably.

In practical terms, the current layout means investors should watch how BTC behaves around the 68k–70k zone and near the major long-exposure thresholds highlighted by the liquidation map. A break below the lower boundary could accelerate selling as liquidations cascade through the concentrated long positions, while a sustained move above the dense supply zone would require fresh buyers to appear in meaningful size to re-energize a new bout of upside.

Readers should stay tuned to how volatility evolves around these pins, and whether retail sentiment shifts as macro catalysts unfold. As with prior cycles, a clear change in the balance of power between liquidity depth and price discovery could redefine the near-term path for Bitcoin.

As a point of context, investors will want to monitor how the market absorbs any macro shifts that influence risk appetite, including yields, liquidity conditions, and funding rates. The evolving interplay between on-chain liquidity hotspots and retail positioning will likely shape BTC’s direction in the weeks ahead.

TLDR

• The CFTC and the DOJ filed a lawsuit against Minnesota shortly after the state approved a ban on prediction markets.
• Federal regulators argue that prediction markets fall under their exclusive jurisdiction as regulated derivatives products.
• The complaint states that Minnesota’s law unlawfully interferes with federally approved trading platforms.
• The state law bans platforms that allow users to bet on events such as sports outcomes and economic trends.
• The statute also extends liability to banks, media firms, and data providers linked to these platforms.

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Federal regulators moved quickly after Minnesota enacted a law banning prediction markets across the state. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit within one day. They argue that the state law interferes with federally regulated derivatives markets.

Federal lawsuit challenges Minnesota Authority Over Prediction Markets

The CFTC and DOJ filed the complaint against Minnesota and Governor Tim Walz in federal court. They claim the state law violates the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over derivatives trading and regulated contracts.

Officials stated that prediction markets operate as federally approved financial instruments under existing law.

The complaint reads, “This flagrant and unprecedented incursion must be preliminarily and permanently enjoined.”

The agencies explained that the law classifies prediction markets as illegal gambling within Minnesota borders. However, federal regulators maintain that these platforms trade event-based contracts under national oversight rules.

They also stressed that exchanges offering these contracts must comply with federal standards. Therefore, the agencies argue that state-level bans disrupt a uniform regulatory system.

State Law Targets Platforms and Related Financial Services

Minnesota’s new statute prohibits platforms that allow users to wager on future events and outcomes. The law covers predictions involving sports, weather, economic indicators, and political developments.

The statute also extends liability to banks, payment processors, and media organizations connected to these platforms. It includes entities that advertise, verify, or supply data used by prediction market operators.

The complaint highlights partnerships between prediction platforms and major organizations. These include sports leagues, media companies, and financial data providers that support market activity.

Regulators argue that penalizing these partners creates broader enforcement risks beyond trading platforms. They maintain that federal law already governs these activities under established financial regulations.

Broader Dispute Expands Across Multiple U.S. States

The lawsuit forms part of a wider conflict between federal regulators and state authorities over market classification. Several states have attempted to restrict prediction platforms using local gambling laws.

The CFTC has taken legal action against states such as Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut in similar disputes. These cases focus on whether states can override federal authority in regulating derivative products.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has introduced mixed policies toward crypto and related services in recent months. Governor Walz approved legislation allowing banks and credit unions to provide crypto custody services.

Earlier this year, the state also banned crypto ATMs, citing concerns about fraud and scams. The new prediction market ban will take effect on Aug. 1, according to the statute.

Key takeaways:

• Solana perpetual futures funding rates flipped negative, signaling excess demand for bearish positions.
• Rival networks like Base and Hyperliquid pose direct threats to Solana by aggressively capturing DEX market volume.

Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) faced a 15% correction following a rejection at $98 on May 11. A retest of the $83 level on Tuesday was followed by negative futures funding rates, indicating increased demand for short SOL positions. 

While declining network activity contributed to the price drop, competition among rival blockchain networks has picked up. 

SOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

The SOL perpetual futures funding rate stood at -3% on Tuesday, down considerably from the +8% on Saturday. During neutral market conditions, this indicator hovers near +9% to account for the cost of capital and exchange risk. Demand for bullish leverage has been largely absent since Saturday, when SOL price slipped below $90.

Solana DEX activity has declined by 56% since January

Declining activity on Solana’s decentralized exchanges (DEXs) has reduced ecosystem revenue and demand for SOL. This reduced appetite for decentralized applications (DApps) was not exclusive to Solana, but growing competition poses a major threat, as investors fear that demand for memecoins has faded for good.

Solana weekly DEX volumes, DApps revenue, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Solana DApp revenue stabilized near $20 million per week, down from an average of $35 million in January. This movement closely mirrors the network’s DEX activity trend, which currently stands at $11 billion per week, compared to January’s average of $25 billion. The 30-day DApp revenue leaders on Solana are Pump, Axiom Pro, Phantom, and Jupiter, which command a combined 65% market share.

Blockchain ranked by weekly DApps revenue market share. Source: DefiLlama

Solana remained the top blockchain for DApp revenue despite intensifying competition. Hyperliquid created a direct threat due to its dominance in perpetual contracts, offering a high-throughput solution with core trading features built directly into the consensus layer. Meanwhile, the Ethereum layer-2 network Base offered seamless integration into the Coinbase ecosystem.

In terms of total value locked (TVL), Solana secured second place with $5.9 billion, followed by BNB Chain at $5.5 billion and Base at $4.5 billion. DEX platforms and staking DApps like Jupiter, Kamino, Sanctum, and Raydium lead Solana’s TVL. Still, no blockchain threatens Ethereum’s $43.2 billion TVL, which relies heavily on collateralized lending and liquid staking.

Potential spoofing activity on Solana network DApps

Solana’s footprint in the DApp industry cannot be understated, but the network’s low fees offer a perfect opportunity for maximal extractable value (MEV) botting and inflated activity.

Related: Goldman Sachs exits XRP, Solana ETF exposure in Q1 2026

Source: X/lukecannon727

X user lukecannon727 noted that 1,600 addresses were reportedly responsible for nearly 63% of volumes on PreStocks, a synthetic asset trading platform that runs on the Solana network. According to the analysis, those entities presented balanced trading activity, high execution frequency, and small net losses. These findings are highly consistent with arbitrage activity, but they could also indicate volume spoofing.  

Recent weakness in SOL prices can be partially attributed to the broader decline in DApp demand and increased competition, especially from Hyperliquid and Base. An eventual bull run seems highly dependent on a pickup in DEX activity, particularly in memecoin trading. But, at the same time, there is no indication that SOL should retest the $78 level last seen in early April.