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Crypto Long & Short: Crypto’s liquidity mirage

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Chart: Monthly spot and derivatives CEX Volumes and Market share

Welcome to our institutional newsletter, Crypto Long & Short. This week:

  • Leo Mindyuk on how executable liquidity at scale is more fragmented and fragile than most institutions assume
  • Top headlines institutions should pay attention to by Francisco Rodrigues
  • Helium’s deflationary flip in Chart of the Week

-Alexandra Levis


Expert Insights

Crypto’s liquidity mirage: why headline volume doesn’t equal tradable depth

– By Leo Mindyuk, co-founder and CEO, ML Tech

Crypto looks liquid, until you try to trade large volumes. Especially during periods of market stress and even more so if you want to execute on coins outside of the top 10-20.

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On paper, the numbers are impressive. Billions traded in daily volume and trillions traded in monthly volume. Tight spreads on bitcoin and ether (ETH). Dozens of exchanges competing for flow. It resembles a mature, highly efficient market. The beginning of the year saw around $9 trillion of monthly spot and derivatives volumes, then October 2025 saw around $10 trillion in monthly volume (including a lot of activity around the October 10th market bloodbath). Then in November, derivatives trading volumes decreased 26% to $5.61 trillion, recording the lowest monthly activity since June, followed by even larger declines in December and January, according to CoinDesk Data. Those are still some very impressive numbers, but let’s zoom in further.

Chart: Monthly spot and derivatives CEX Volumes and Market share

At first glance there are a lot of crypto exchanges competing for flow, but in reality just a small group of exchanges dominate (see the graph below). If those have liquidity thinning out or connectivity issues preventing the execution of volume, the whole crypto market is impacted.

Chart: Monthly derivatives centralized exchange volumes

It’s not just that the volumes are concentrated on a few exchanges, they are also highly concentrated in BTC, ETH and a couple of other top coins.

The liquidity seems quite solid with a number of institutional market makers active in the space. However, the visible liquidity is not the same as executable liquidity. According to Amberdata (see the graph below), markets that showed $103.64 million in visible liquidity suddenly had just $0.17 million available, a 98%+ collapse. The bid-ask imbalance flipped from +0.0566 (bid-heavy, buyers waiting) to -0.2196 (ask-heavy, sellers overwhelming the market at a 78:22 ratio).

Chart: Order book liquidity depth

For institutions deploying meaningful capital, the distinction becomes obvious very quickly. The top of the book might show tight spreads and reasonable depth. Go a few levels down, and liquidity thins out fast. Market impact doesn’t increase gradually, it accelerates. What looks like a manageable order can move price far more than expected once it interacts with real depth.

Chart: BTC Minimum depth around the October 10 market crash

The structural reason is simple. Crypto liquidity is fragmented. There is no single consolidated market. Depth is distributed across venues, each with different participants, latency profiles, API systems (that can break or have disruptions) and risk models (that can come under stress). Reported volume aggregates activity, but it does not aggregate liquidity in a way that makes it easily accessible for large execution. This is specifically apparent for smaller coins.

That fragmentation creates a false sense of comfort. In calm markets, spreads compress and books look stable. During volatility, liquidity providers reprice or pull entirely. They get unfavorable inventory and are unable to de-risk and pull out their quotes. Depth disappears faster than most models assume. The difference between quoted liquidity and durable liquidity becomes clear when conditions change.

What matters is not how the book looks at 10:00 a.m. on a quiet day. What matters is how it behaves during stress. Experienced quants know that but most of the market participants do not, as they struggle to close open positions gradually and then get liquidated during the stress events. We saw this in October, and a couple of times since.

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In execution analysis, slippage does not scale linearly with order size; it compounds. Once an order crosses a certain depth threshold, impact increases disproportionately. In volatile conditions, that threshold shrinks. Suddenly, even modest trades can move prices more than historical norms would suggest.

For institutional allocators, this is not a technical nuance. It is a risk management issue. Liquidity risk is not only about entering a position, it is about exiting when liquidity is scarce and correlations rise. Want to execute a couple of millions of some smaller coins? Good luck! Want to exit losing positions in less liquid coins when the market is busy like during the October crash? It can become catastrophic!

As digital asset markets continue to mature, the conversation needs to move beyond headline volume metrics and top level liquidity snapshots during the calm markets. The real measure of market quality is resilience and how consistently liquidity holds up under pressure.

In crypto, liquidity isn’t defined by what’s visible during normal stable conditions. It’s defined by what’s left when the market gets tested. That’s when capacity assumptions break and risk management takes center stage.

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Headlines of the Week

Francisco Rodrigues

Wall Street giants have kept moving deeper into the cryptocurrency space over the past week, while new data has shed light on just how large the space is in Russia and how big it could become in Asia. Major market participants Binance and Strategy have meanwhile doubled down on their massive BTC reserves.


Chart of the Week

Helium’s deflationary flip

Helium has surged 37.5% month-to-date, decoupling from the broader market as its fundamentals shift toward a deflationary model. Since the start of 2026, the protocol’s net emissions have turned negative, effectively neutralizing long-standing sell pressure. This transition is fueled by a jump in network demand, with daily Data Credit burns climbing from $30,000 to over $50,000 since the beginning of the year, signaling that utility-driven token destruction is now outpacing new issuance.

Chart: Helium Net Emissions v/s HBT Price

Listen. Read. Watch. Engage.

Looking for more? Receive the latest crypto news from coindesk.com and explore our robust Data & Indices offerings by visiting coindesk.com/institutions.


Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc., CoinDesk Indices or its owners and affiliates.

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Why Pi Network Coin is pumping as crypto prices remain muted

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pi network

Pi Network Coin’s price is surging this month, even as the broader crypto market remains muted, with Bitcoin stuck at $67,000.

Summary

  • Pi Network Coin price has rebounded by nearly 50% from its lowest level this month.
  • The network will celebrate the first year anniversary of the mainnet launch on Friday.
  • There are rising odds that it will be listed by Kraken, a top US exchange.

Pi Coin (PI) token jumped to a high of $0.20 on Wednesday, February 18, up by nearly 50% from its lowest level this month. This rally has brought its market capitalization to over $1.68 billion.

Pi Network is soaring as several important factors converge. First, the network will celebrate the first anniversary of its mainnet launch this Friday. As such, there is a likelihood the developers will make a major announcement to mark this occasion.

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Second, there is a likelihood that Kraken, an American crypto exchange valued at over $20 billion, will list it later this year. Kraken added it to the chain section of the listing roadmap page.

A Kraken listing would be a big deal, as it would expose it to American investors, since it is now listed on exchanges like OKX, MEXC, and Gate, which have a negligible market share in the country. It would also raise the possibility of being listed by other companies, such as Binance and Coinbase.

Pi Coin’s price is soaring ahead of the first validator rewards distribution, which will occur in March this year. The risk, however, is that many of these validators may decide to sell their rewards.

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Pi is also rising after developers began implementing a major network upgrade, as it transitions from Protocol 19 of the Stellar Network Consensus to Protocol 23. The first stage of the upgrade started on Sunday, and the process may continue in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, data compiled by PiScan shows that the pace of token unlocks will continue to fall over the next few months. 109 million tokens will be unlocked in the remainder of February, followed by 104 million in March, 86 million in April, and 78 million in May.

Pi Network Coin price technical analysis 

pi network
Pi Coin price chart | Source: crypto.news 

The 12-hour chart shows that the Pi Network Coin price has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $0.1300 to the current $0.1870. It has flipped the Supertrend indicator from red to green for the first time since October last year.

The coin has also jumped above the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, and is slowly forming a bullish pennant pattern. It is also hovering at the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Therefore, the coin may continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at $0.2055, its lowest level this month. This target aligns with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

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Crypto Lobby Forms Working Group to Push for Prediction Market Regulatory Clarity

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Crypto Lobby Forms Working Group to Push for Prediction Market Regulatory Clarity

The Digital Chamber has officially announced the Prediction Markets Working Group, a strategic unit designed to secure federal oversight for the booming wagering sector.

With individual state regulators cracking down on prediction market platforms, the group is pushing for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to take exclusive control to end the fragmentation of the market.

Key Takeaways

  • New Defense Unit: The Digital Chamber forms a specialized group to defend prediction markets against state-level bans.
  • Primary Goal: Advocating for CFTC supremacy over fragmented state gaming commission enforcement.
  • First Move: Strategic letter sent to CFTC Chair Mike Selig urging tailored federal rulemaking over litigation.

What’s Happening to U.S. Prediction Markets Now?

The regulatory turf war has reached a boiling point. While volumes on decentralized platforms explode, state regulators are effectively trying to shut the sector down.

Just recently, the Nevada Gaming Control Board hit Kalshi with a civil enforcement action, seeking an injunction against what they term “unlicensed wagering.”

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This creates a hostile environment for traders. Platforms are caught between federal compliance efforts and aggressive state gaming commissions claiming jurisdiction.

The Digital Chamber’s move is a direct response to this chaos, aiming to consolidate oversight under federal law rather than state gambling statutes.

The Mechanics of the Push

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The group’s immediate strategy involves aggressive advocacy and litigation support. In the announcement released Tuesday, the Digital Chamber outlined plans to file “friend-of-the-court” briefs to educate judges on the CFTC’s historic regulatory exclusivity.

Their first official action was sending a letter to CFTC Chairman Mike Selig. The group praised Selig’s stance on maintaining federal jurisdiction but demanded an end to regulation by enforcement.

“For too long, operators in this space have navigated a maze of regulatory ambiguity, including unclear overlaps between federal and state regulators,” the group stated.

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This initiative parallels broader legislative efforts. While Trump wants a market structure bill soon, this working group seeks to define prediction markets strictly as financial derivatives, not gambling products.

Discover: The hottest meme coins on Solana right now.

What Happens Next for Traders?

If the working group succeeds in establishing federal oversight, it opens the floodgates for institutional capital.

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A clear mandate from the CFTC would remove the “gambling” stigma and allow US-based traders deeper access to liquid markets without fear of sudden platform geo-blocking.

However, the legal battles will likely drag on. While international jurisdictions move quickly, evident as Germany and the EU solidify frameworks like MiCA, the US remains stuck in litigation.

The next thing to look out for will be the CFTC’s response to the Digital Chamber’s letter.

Any signal of formal rulemaking could be a bullish catalyst for governance tokens associated with prediction platforms.

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Discover: The next crypto to explode.

The post Crypto Lobby Forms Working Group to Push for Prediction Market Regulatory Clarity appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Fed minutes January 2026:

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Fed minutes January 2026:

Divided Federal Reserve officials at their January meeting indicated that further interest rate cuts should be paused for now and could resume later in the year only if inflation cooperates.

While the decision to hold the central bank’s benchmark rate steady mostly was met with approval, the path ahead appeared less certain, with members conflicted between fighting inflation and supporting the labor market, according to minutes released Wednesday from the Jan. 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

“In considering the outlook for monetary policy, several participants commented that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” the meeting summary said.

However, meeting participants disagreed on where policy should head, with officials debating over whether the focus should be more on fighting inflation or supporting the labor market.

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“Some participants commented that it would likely be appropriate to hold the policy rate steady for some time as the Committee carefully assesses incoming data, and a number of these participants judged that additional policy easing may not be warranted until there was clear indication that the progress of disinflation was firmly back on track,” the minutes said.

Moreover, some even entertained the notion that rate hikes could be on the table and wanted the post-meeting statement to more closely reflect “a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions.”

Such a description would have reflected “the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels.”

The Fed reduced its benchmark borrowing rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in consecutive cuts in September, October and December. Those moves put the key rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.

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The meeting was the first for a new voting cast of regional presidents, at least two of whom, Lorie Logan of Dallas and Beth Hammack of Cleveland, have publicly said they think they Fed should be on hold indefinitely. Both have said they see inflation as a continuing threat and should be the focus of policy now. All 19 governors and regional presidents participate at the meeting, but only 12 vote.

With the Fed already split along ideological lines, the fissure could grow deeper if former Governor Kevin Warsh is confirmed as the next central bank chair. Warsh has spoken in favor of lower rates, a position also supported by current Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller. Both Waller and Miran voted against the January decision, preferring instead another quarter-point cut. Current Chair Jerome Powell‘s term ends in May.

The meeting minutes do not identify individual participants and featured an array of characterizations to describe positions, rotating between “some,” “a few,” “many” and even featured two rare references to “a vast majority.”

Participants generally expected inflation to come down through the year, “though the pace and timing of this decline remained uncertain.” They noted the impact tariffs were having on prices and said they expected the impact to wane as the year goes by.

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“Most participants, however, cautioned that progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective might be slower and more uneven than generally expected and judged that the risk of inflation running persistently above the Committee’s objective was meaningful,” the document said.

At the meeting, the rate-setting FOMC adjusted some of the language in its post-meeting statement. The changes noted that the risks to inflation and the labor market had come more closely into balance, softening prior worries over the employment picture.

Since the meeting, labor data has been a mixed bag, with indications that private sector job creation is slowing further and that the meager growth is coming almost entirely from the health-care sector. However, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% in January and nonfarm payroll growth was stronger than expected.

On inflation, the Fed’s key personal consumption expenditures prices metric has been mired around 3%. However, a report last week showed that the consumer price index when excluding food and energy prices was at its lowest in nearly five years.

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Futures traders are placing the best bet for the next cut to come in June, with another in September or October, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

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XRP gains momentum as Arizona moves to add it to state crypto reserve

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XRP price nears key support
XRP price nears key support
  • XRP has held strong near $1.40 despite mixed market signals.
  • Key resistance levels to watch are $1.50, $1.54, and $1.91.
  • Arizona has proposed to include XRP in a state-managed crypto reserve fund.

XRP cryptocurrency has held steady above $1.40, showing resilience despite a broadly cautious market.

Recent developments in US policy have added a fresh layer of optimism for XRP enthusiasts.

Arizona advances bill to include XRP in state reserve

Arizona lawmakers are moving forward with legislation that could formally include XRP in a state-managed digital assets fund.

The proposal seeks to create a strategic reserve for digital currencies obtained through seizures or confiscations.

XRP, alongside Bitcoin (BTC), is explicitly listed as an eligible asset.

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The bill recently passed a key Senate committee in a 4-2 vote, marking a significant step forward.

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If enacted, the fund would be managed by the state treasurer with strict custodial oversight.

This move would make Arizona one of the first US states to formally reference XRP in a government financial framework.

For XRP holders, this development is largely symbolic.

The state would not be directly purchasing XRP with taxpayer money, but inclusion in the reserve adds credibility.

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It reinforces XRP’s reputation as a functional and settlement-oriented digital asset rather than just a speculative token.

Market activity signals caution

XRP’s short-term price action has been mixed.

The coin is supported around $1.40 to $1.44, creating a key floor that traders are watching closely.

Exchange outflows suggest accumulation by larger holders, while smaller whales have added to their balances, hinting at potential upward pressure.

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Technical indicators show both bullish and bearish signals.

Momentum oscillators suggest limited buying activity in the short term, but longer-term smart money metrics point to possible gains.

Patterns on the charts indicate that a break below $1.42 could trigger a short-term pullback toward $1.12.

At the same time, if support holds, traders could see upside targets near $1.91 and $2.13.

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XRP has been rangebound for the past month, but the combination of policy developments and structural market accumulation could push it higher.

XRP price prediction

Policy developments in Arizona, combined with accumulation patterns and technical support, may give XRP the momentum it needs to challenge its next resistance levels.

Traders should watch the $1.40–$1.44 support zone closely.

A strong hold here could set the stage for a breakout.

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The resistance levels to monitor are $1.50 and $1.54 in the near term.

Beyond that, the next targets are $1.67 and $1.91.

These levels align with smart money accumulation and historical trading ranges.

A sustained move above $2.00 could signal a return of broader bullish sentiment.

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Overall, XRP’s price is poised in a delicate balance.

Short-term caution is warranted, but medium-term prospects look promising.

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Riot Platform‘s AI/HPC Push could Net up to $21B, Says Stockholder

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Mining, Texas, Bitcoin Mining, AI

An activist Riot Platform shareholder is pressing the crypto mining company to accelerate its pivot to high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence.

In a Wednesday letter to executives, Starboard Value, which holds about 12.7 million shares of Riot, said that the company could generate between $9 billion to $21 billion in equity value contribution from AI/HPC data centers in Texas. The shareholder said that “time is of the essence,” stressing urgency in getting “more material deals completed” as it moves deeper into AI and HPC.

“With 1.4 [gigawatts] of gross capacity remaining to be monetized, Riot is in an enviable position – but it must execute with excellence and urgency,” said Starboard. “We believe Riot should be able to attract high-quality tenants for tier-3 data centers with terms similar to or better than the peer transactions announced towards the end of 2025.”

Mining, Texas, Bitcoin Mining, AI
Source: Starboard Value

Starboard referred to Riot’s primary sites in Corsicana and Rockdale, Texas, where other crypto miners also operate due to low energy costs and friendly regulations.

At Wednesday’s Nasdaq market open, Riot’s share price surged and were up by almost 6%, at the time of publication. Industry tracker CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF was down less than 1%, by comparison.

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Related: Moonwell hit by $1.78M exploit as AI vibe coding debate reaches DeFi

“The recently announced transaction with Advanced Micro Devices […] is a positive signal and confirms our views regarding the intrinsic value of Riot’s key sites, but it is a small proof of concept deal, and we, like you, expect significantly more,” said Starboard, referring to a data center lease and services agreement announced in January.

Many mining companies pivoting away from crypto

Riot Platforms is not the only crypto company shifting some of its operations into AI and HPC amid increasing mining difficulty and other costs. CleanSpark, MARA Holdings, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and TeraWulf repurposed some of their infrastructure or announced similar plans in a move toward AI.

Cango, another Bitcoin miner, sold $305 million worth of its BTC holdings last week in part to fund its planned expansion into AI and HPC.

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