Crypto World
Crypto market wobbles as investors ignore good news, look for the ‘exit ramp’: Crypto Daybook Americas
Crypto Daybook Americas will not be published on Monday, Feb. 16 due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the U.S. We will be back on Feb. 17.
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin is on track for a fourth straight weekly decline in its longest negative streak since mid-November. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 1.7% in the past 24 hours and 4.8% since Monday morning.
The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell 2% in a market that, according to Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson, is mostly driven by fear. Indeed, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has now been in “extreme fear” territory for almost two weeks.
“The market’s main driver right now is fear. Fear that we’ll go lower,” Nelson told CoinDesk. “In a market like this, good news doesn’t register with investors. If they see an exit ramp, they’re taking it.”
To illustrate his point, Nelson pointed to the reaction to Uniswap’s 25% increase after the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock (BLK), said it was making shares of its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. treasury fund BUIDL tradable on the decentralized exchange. The token has now given back the gains made after that announcement.
“Sellers bearish on the market’s short-term direction overwhelmed the bulls betting that institutional adoption will drive value long-term,” he said.
Earlier this week, stronger U.S. payroll data and a falling unemployment rate prompted traders to rethink rate-cut expectations for the year. Further guidance may come later today in the form of inflation figures for the world’s largest economy.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is forecast to show 2.5% year-over-year inflation.
Adding to that uncertainty is concern over a partial U.S. government shutdown. Odds of that occurring tomorrow are now around 90% on prediction market Kalshi. If one materializes, expect even more volatility amid thin trading. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. core inflation rate YoY for January (Prev. 2.6%); MoM Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. inflation rate YoY for January (Prev. 2.7%); MoM Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Feb. 13: Trump Media & Tech Group (DJT), post-market
- Feb. 13: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, -$0.07
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 1.75% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,933.65 (24hrs: -0.83%)
- ETH is up 2.05% at $1,961.15 (24hrs: -0.97%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 1.48% at 1,913.46 (24hrs: -1.96%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 15 bps at 2.85%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0019% (2.0947% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.13% at 97.05
- Gold futures are up 1.41% at $4,993.10
- Silver futures are up 3.65% at $78.30
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.21% at 56,941.97
- Hang Seng closed down 1.72% at 26,567.12
- FTSE 100 is up 0.12% at 10,414.44
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 6,001.38
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.34% at 49,451.98
- S&P 500 closed down 1.57% at 6,832.76
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.03% at 22,597.15
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 2.37% at 32,465.30
- S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.71% at 3,741.30
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 7 bps at 4.10%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.27% at 6,832.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.29% at 24,696.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.33% at 49,358.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.01% (+0.41%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02923 (-0.55%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,027 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $33.55
- Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $170,716
- CME Futures Open Interest: 116,875 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.48%
Technical Analysis
- Bitcoin remains pressured below the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,324.
- A confirmed weekly close below this level historically signals a further 20%-25% capitulation.
- The would take it toward the $51,000–$54,000 range before a bottom forms
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $141.09 (-7.90%), +5.87% at $149.37 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $56.63 (-2.13%), +1.71% at $57.60
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.15 (-1.23%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.71 (-0.53%), +0.28% at $31.80
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.25 (-4.10%), +1.10% at $7.33
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.20 (-4.05%), +0.85% at $14.32
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.48 (-3.37%), +0.11% at $17.50
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.31 (-3.22%), +1.18% at $9.42
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.10 (-3.70%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.19 (+1.09%)
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $123.00 (-2.44%), +1.54% at $124.89
- Strive (ASST): closed at $7.70 (-4.82%), +0.52% at $7.74
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.54 (-1.21%), +1.07% at $6.61
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.74 (-8.82%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.03 (-3.74%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$410.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$113.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.8 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
PI is the best-performing top 100 cryptocurrency today (February 13).
The cryptocurrency market made another move south in the past 24 hours, with most leading digital assets (including BTC) charting minor losses.
Somewhat surprisingly, Pi Network’s PI has defied the bearish environment, posting a daily gain of around 8%.
Finally in Green
Pi Network’s native cryptocurrency has been in a sharp decline over the past several months, disappointing its huge base of proponents and investors. Just a few days ago, its price dropped to a new all-time low of around $0.13, while its market cap plunged to around $1.1 billion.
Over the last 24 hours, though, the bulls stepped in, and PI reached almost $0.15. Its capitalization once again surpassed $1.3 billion, making it the 55th-largest cryptocurrency.
The notable resurgence comes shortly after the team behind the project provided an update on its Node infrastructure. The developers revealed that the Pi Mainnet blockchain protocol is undergoing a series of improvements and set a deadline of February 15 for the first upgrade.
The Core Team explained that it will run the consensus algorithm with Pioneers who have applied to become Nodes and have successfully installed all required blockchain software on their computers.
“While our hope is to include as many Pioneers as possible when defining the Node requirements, the availability and reliability of individual nodes in the network affect the safety and liveness of the network,” the official announcement reads.
PI’s price revival also coincides with a slowdown in token unlocks. Approximately 19 million coins are scheduled for release today (February 13), marking the record day for the next 30 days. Towards the end of the month, the daily unlocks are expected to drop below 5 million, which could reduce selling pressure and help stabilize the price.
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The Recent Rumors
Earlier this month, some X users speculated that Kraken is preparing to allow trading services with PI. Such support from one of the leading crypto exchanges would likely have a positive price impact on the asset, as it would increase its liquidity and availability and improve its reputation.
Perhaps the biggest boost will be if Binance decides to embrace PI. The world’s largest crypto exchange was expected to do so last year and even held a community vote to determine whether its users wanted the token listed on the platform. Despite the overwhelming support, Binance has yet to honor their wish.
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A US-based structured-credit firm is pushing TradFi boundaries by integrating crypto into real-world lending. Newmarket Capital, managing nearly $3 billion in assets, is pioneering hybrid mortgage and commercial loans that leverage Bitcoin (BTC) alongside conventional real estate as collateral.
Its affiliate, Battery Finance, is leading the charge in creating financial structures that leverage digital assets to support credit without requiring borrowers to liquidate holdings.
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Bitcoin to Reshape Mortgages and Real-World Lending
The initiative targets borrowers who are crypto-asset holders, including tech-savvy Millennials and Gen Z. It provides a path to financing that preserves investment upside while enabling access to traditional credit markets.
By combining income-producing real estate with Bitcoin, the firm seeks to mitigate volatility risk while offering borrowers a novel lending solution.
According to Andrew Hohns, Founder and CEO of Newmarket Capital and Battery Finance, the model involves income-producing properties, such as commercial real estate, paired with a portion of the borrower’s Bitcoin holdings as supplemental collateral.
Bitcoin is valued as part of the overall loan package, providing lenders with an asset that is liquid, divisible, and transparent, unlike real estate alone.
“We’re creating credit structures that produce income, but by integrating measured amounts of Bitcoin, these loans participate in appreciation over time, offering benefits traditional models don’t provide,” Hohns explained in a session on the Coin Stories Podcast.
Early deals demonstrate the concept, with Battery Finance refinancing a $12.5 million multifamily property using both the building itself and approximately 20 BTC as part of a hybrid collateral package.
Borrowers gain access to capital without triggering taxable events from selling crypto, while lenders gain additional downside protection.
Sponsored
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Institutional-Grade Bitcoin Collateral
Unlike pure Bitcoin-backed loans, which remain experimental and niche, Newmarket’s model is institutional-grade:
- It is fully underwritten
- Income-focused, and
- Legally structured for US regulatory compliance.
Bitcoin in these structures is treated as a collateral complement rather than a standalone payment method; mortgage and loan repayments remain in USD.
“Bitcoin adds flexibility and transparency to traditional lending, but the foundation is still income-producing assets,” Hohns said. “It’s a bridge between digital scarcity and conventional credit risk frameworks.”
The approach builds on a broader trend of integrating real-world assets (RWA) with digital holdings. In June 2025, federal agencies like the FHFA signaled in mid-2025 that crypto could be considered for mortgage qualification,
Sponsored
Sponsored
However, private lenders like Newmarket Capital are moving faster, operationalizing hybrid collateral structures while adhering to existing regulatory frameworks.
Newmarket and Battery Finance’s work illustrates how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can interface with TradFi as tools to unlock new forms of lending and credit.
Still, challenges exist. BeInCrypto reported that despite Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s plans to accept Bitcoin as mortgage collateral, there is a catch.
The Bitcoin must be held on regulated exchanges. Bitcoin in self-custody or private wallets won’t be recognized.
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This raises concerns about financial sovereignty and centralized control. Policy limits Bitcoin’s use in mortgage lending to custodial, state-visible platforms, excluding decentralized storage.
“This isn’t about adoption vs. resistance. It’s about adoption with conditions. You can play— …but only if your Bitcoin plays by their rules. Rules designed for control…As adoption deepens, pressure will mount for lenders to recognize properly held Bitcoin—not just coins on an exchange…Eventually, the most secure form of money will unlock the most flexible capital,” one user remarked.
Nevertheless, while this innovation is not a solution to housing affordability, it represents a meaningful step toward mainstream adoption of crypto in real-world finance.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching “undervalued” territory for the first time in three years as a classic indicator nears its inflection point.
Key points:
-
Bitcoin has not been so “undervalued” versus its market cap since March 2023, research shows.
-
The MVRV ratio is approaching its key breakeven level for the first time in over three years.
-
MVRV analysis sees Bitcoin in the process of reversing its downtrend.
Bitcoin value metric echoes $20,000 price
Research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant released on Friday reveals key developments on Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio metric.
A classic BTC price gauge, the MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the price at which the supply last moved, also known as its “realized cap.”
Values below 1 imply that the supply is undervalued at current prices. Last week, as BTC/USD dropped below $60,000, MVRV hit 1.13 — its lowest reading since March 2023, when it traded at just $20,000.
“Following its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for approximately four months and is now approaching what can be considered an undervalued zone,” CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan commented.
“Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.”
MVRV last registered below 1 at the start of 2023. At the time of Bitcoin’s latest all-time high last October, the ratio peaked at 2.28.
Crypto Dan questioned the validity of Bitcoin’s 52% drop from all-time highs. Neither the top nor the bottom, he argued, was characteristic of typical MVRV behavior.
“However, unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin did not experience a sharp rise into a clearly overvalued zone during the recent bull cycle,” the research post continued.
“This distinction is important to recognize. As a result, the current decline may also differ from past market bottoms, and it appears necessary to respond with this possibility in mind.”
Bitcoin price bottom “being forged right now”
In January, Cointelegraph reported on early signs that BTC price action may be preparing a trend reversal.
Related: Binance teases Bitcoin bullish ‘shift’ as crypto sentiment hits record low
On two-year rolling time frames, the Z-score of the MVRV ratio, which divides its readings by the standard deviation of market cap, recently fell to historic lows.
“The current Z-Score of $BTC is lower than during the bear market bottom in 2015, 2018, COVID crash 2020 and 2022,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe observed at the time.
This week, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain used another Z-score iteration to show that BTC/USD was in a “capitulation zone.”
“The indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase,” he wrote in an accompanying post.
“The statistical deviation of the Z-Score screams opportunity, signaling that the bottom of this downtrend is being forged right now.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs are bleeding out, shedding a massive $410 million on Thursday as Bitcoin slipped below $66,000.
That’s a punch to the gut for bulls hoping for a quick reversal. The institutional tap hasn’t just been turned off; it’s running in reverse.
This marks the second straight day of heavy red candles for the ETFs, bringing the two-day burn to over $686 million. BlackRock’s IBIT took the hardest hit, dumping $157.56 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC wasn’t far behind with $104 million in outflows. Even the stalwarts are capitulating.
The trigger? Hotter-than-expected payroll data that has traders pricing out Fed rate cuts faster than you can say “liquidation.”
Global sentiment is shifting rapidly: while some jurisdictions continue to sit on the fence with crypto, others are actively preparing for global adoption.
That said, the pressure from such hefty outflows is undeniably mounting and highlights systemic risk from a sudden, too-fast exit of institutional money.
Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode!
Is the Institutional Floor Collapsing?
Let’s look at the charts. Bitcoin is trading just above $67,000, a brutal 47% drop from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080.
The macro picture is getting ugly, prompting major banks to slash their targets. Standard Chartered now sees BTC potentially diving to $50,000. Meanwhile, JP Morgan cut its production cost estimate to $77,000, citing declining hashrate and mining difficulty.
It’s not just spot markets flashing warnings. We’re seeing alarming signals in derivatives, reminiscent of recent whale perp spikes that suggest big money is hedging hard against further downsides.
When whales start protecting their downside this aggressively, you need to pay attention.
Adding fuel to the fire, alarming new research regarding systemic risks has surfaced, leaving retail traders wondering if their assets are safe. The fear is palpable, creating a feedback loop that drives prices lower.
Even Bitcoin’s most notorious bull, Michael Saylor, the founder of the largest Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy, appears to be uncertain about where Bitcoin is headed next.
What You Should Watch Next
If you’re looking for entries, proceed with caution. The $60,000 psychological level is now the line in the sand. If that breaks, the $50,000 bear target becomes a scary reality almost overnight.
Watch the flow data closely on trackers like SoSoValue. Until we see positive inflows return, catching this falling knife is risky.
However, for the brave contrarians, this dip might look like an opportunity similar to the best crypto plays identified earlier this week.
Volatility cuts both ways. Keep your eye on the upcoming inflation prints. If data cools, flows could reverse. But right now? Cash could remain king for a while yet.
Discover: The best pre-launch crypto sales right now.
The post US Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $410M in Outflows as BTC Slips Below $66K appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitcoin price did not just dip. It reacted to something way bigger.
The U.S. government revised last year’s job numbers down by nearly 900,000 positions.
Markets hate one thing more than bad news. They hate unreliable data and uncertainty.
This update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics just shook confidence hard. January showed 130,000 new jobs. Fine on the surface. But the massive downward adjustment for 2025 changes the entire story.
Much of the reported strength was based on preliminary estimates, including the birth–death model, which can overstate job creation during periods of economic transition.
Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode!
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin Price?
Since this increase in uncertainty, Risk assets got hit. Treasury yields jumped, with the 10 year moving from 4.15% to 4.20%.
Uncertainty is poison for markets. You can see it in the derivatives flows. Whale perp activity is spiking, which points to institutions hedging hard against more downside.
Rate cut odds for March collapsed from 22% to 9% in minutes. That kind of shift changes the entire market mood. Add fresh warnings about volatility risks across large chunks of BTC supply and the setup gets even heavier.
Could this be the bottom? Maybe. But the way the market is behaving, it does not look ready to commit to that idea just yet.
Keep your eyes on the bond market. As long as yields keep pushing higher, Bitcoin will have a hard time finding stable ground. That is just how the liquidity game works.
Still, chaos has a funny way of creating opportunity.
Discover: The best pre-launch crypto sales right now.
The post Bitcoin Price Slides After US Admits Nearly 1 Million ‘Phantom’ Jobs in Data Revision appeared first on Cryptonews.
- Perpetual futures allow positions to stay open indefinitely, letting risk build over time.
- Losses increasingly stem from prolonged exposure, not sudden price moves.
- Contract design now plays a bigger role in risk than traditional entry and exit timing.
In 2025, many retail traders realized that futures risk no longer followed a familiar lifecycle.
Positions were no longer defined by clear start and end points, and losses were increasingly shaped by how long exposure was carried rather than by individual market moves.
As non-expiring futures became the default contract type, traders began encountering risk that developed through persistence instead of resolution.
This shift introduced a structural contradiction. Traditional futures contracts expire, forcing positions to be closed or rolled at predetermined intervals.
That process limits how long exposure can accumulate without intervention.
Perpetual futures remove this constraint. By design, they allow positions to remain open indefinitely, provided margin requirements are met.
While this simplifies participation, it also allows risk to build continuously, often without clear signals on price charts.
Educational coverage from Leverage.Trading focused on the structural mechanics of perpetual futures, detailing how the removal of contract expiry allows exposure to persist and why risk can deteriorate over time even when price movement remains subdued.
Risk that accumulates through duration, not volatility
Similar structural patterns have been observed in institutional research on derivatives markets.
For example, the BIS has reported that rising notional exposure and gross market values in derivatives markets reflect how risk can accumulate as positions persist over time, even without dramatic price movements.
As traders adjusted to this structure, several defining properties of non-expiring futures became more widely understood.
These properties did not describe market outcomes, but the conditions under which exposure is allowed to persist:
- Futures contracts without expiry do not force risk to reset
- Exposure remains active until manually reduced or automatically closed
- Structural costs and pressures continue to accrue over time
- Position vulnerability increases through duration, not only volatility
Understanding these properties changed how futures risk was assessed.
Instead of evaluating trades solely on entry quality or short-term price expectations, traders increasingly examined whether a position could withstand ongoing structural pressure over extended periods.
From contract expiry to continuous exposure
This distinction mirrors the contrast between traditional futures markets, such as those operated by the CME Group, and perpetual contract models that dominate crypto derivatives, where contract duration is theoretically unlimited.
The educational explanations focused on how perpetual futures remain aligned with spot prices through continuous adjustment mechanisms, how funding and exposure interact across time, and why prolonged duration can erode position stability even in relatively calm markets.
By considering contract design alongside exposure and time, traders were better equipped to judge whether a futures position was structurally sound before entering it.
Regulatory bodies such as the ESMA have also warned that prolonged leveraged exposure can magnify losses even when price fluctuations appear modest, reinforcing the importance of understanding contract mechanics rather than relying solely on price signals.
Why futures risk became a time problem
As futures markets expanded and participation broadened, isolated price outcomes became an unreliable way to interpret risk.
Education that clarified how non-expiring contracts carry exposure forward became necessary for understanding why positions often deteriorate gradually rather than failing abruptly.
This emphasis on contract structure reflects a broader shift toward risk-first explanations, a role increasingly associated with Leverage.Trading’s coverage of futures and leveraged markets.
Recognizing that futures risk now accumulates through continuity rather than expiration marked a meaningful change in retail trading behavior.
Explanations that clarify how contract design, exposure, and time interact help traders understand not just how futures positions are opened, but how and why they degrade without a defined endpoint.
The new tool lets users automate bets against consistent losers — instead of trying to copy winners.
Prediction markets are everywhere. But rising participation doesn’t necessarily transform into profits for regular users.
Prediction market aggregator Stand announced today, Feb. 13, that it’s launching a tool to let users automatically take the opposite position of trades across popular platforms — namely from traders that tend to lose. Edward Ridgely, founder of Stand, said in a press release shared with The Defiant that conventional copy‑trading breaks down in prediction markets.
“Many operate multiple wallets and can easily front-run anyone copying their moves. The more interesting edge is in systematically counter-trading the consistent losers,” Ridgely explained.
The new feature on Stand allows counter-bets against systematically bad bettors, and also helps users avoid common pitfalls, such as blindly following traders who perform well in one market but lose their edge in others.
Destined to Lose
It’s worth noting, however, that there’s currently no rigorous research quantifying how profitable either copy‑trading or counter‑trading bots are for users in prediction markets.
What the data does show so far, however, is a clear concentration of profits among a small cohort of systematic participants, leaving the majority of retail traders on the wrong side of outcomes.
About 70 % of traders on Polymarket lose money, according to a December 2025 study by Felix Reichenbach of Technische Universität Berlin and Martin Walther of the German International University.
The researchers analyzed more than 124 million trades and found that only around 30% of accounts ended the period with net gains, meaning 70% of participants were on the losing side.
That gap in profitability has shaped trader behavior. Multiple automated copy‑trading bots like PolyFlash or PolydexLab allow users to mirror the positions of top wallets in real time, usually for subscription fees.
This arms-race-like dynamic has made simple copy-trading almost ineffective, given that the most successful accounts can just front‑run the crowd by reacting to profitable trades faster on-chain.
Prediction Market Mania
Prediction markets exploded in popularity in 2025, kicking off mainstream usage with the U.S. 2024 presidential election. The largest platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, have pushed into mainstream markets with an accelerating number of high-profile media and sports partnerships with the likes of the NHL, UFC, MLS, as well as Dow Jones, X, and CNBC.
Sports, politics, culture and crypto markets are now attracting hundreds of millions of dollars, underscoring how much capital these platforms are drawing.
Open interest across platforms surged past $1.1 billion earlier this month, while trading volumes also broke new highs, as The Defiant reported earlier.
Stand’s own monthly DEX volumes via its prediction market terminal have been on the rise since it launched in October, reaching $16.44 million in January.
TLDR
- Amazon and Microsoft have entered bear market territory, both down over 20% from recent highs due to concerns about heavy AI spending without matching cloud revenue growth.
- The Magnificent Seven ETF has dropped nearly 11% from its October peak as investors rotate away from big tech stocks.
- Apple fell 5% on Thursday after reports emerged that its planned AI upgrade to Siri may face delays.
- Alphabet is down 6.4% over the past month, while Meta has given up all post-earnings gains and Tesla is down 7.3% year-to-date.
- UBS downgraded the U.S. technology sector to Neutral, citing concerns about AI capital expenditure outpacing current revenue generation.
The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are experiencing a downturn driven by investor concerns about artificial intelligence spending. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF closed Thursday in correction territory, down nearly 11% from its late October high.
Amazon and Microsoft have been hit hardest among the group. Both companies have now entered bear market territory, meaning they are down more than 20% from their recent highs. Investors have penalized the two tech giants for ramping up AI infrastructure investments without delivering proportional cloud computing revenue growth.
The selloff has spread beyond the initial leaders. Alphabet, which received praise for its Gemini AI platform and cloud unit growth, has declined 6.4% over the past month. Meta Platforms erased all gains from its recent earnings report, which had highlighted AI-driven revenue growth.
Apple Faces Delay Concerns
Apple experienced its worst single-day performance since April 2025, falling 5% on Thursday. Reports indicated that the company’s planned AI upgrade to its digital assistant Siri may be delayed. The news raised questions about whether new AI features will drive the next iPhone upgrade cycle.
The company also faces headwinds from rising memory chip prices. These cost pressures come as investors wait for clearer signs of AI adoption in Apple’s product lineup.
Broader Market Rotation Underway
UBS recently downgraded the U.S. technology sector to Neutral from its previous rating. Mark Haefele, chief investment officer for global wealth management at UBS, recommended investors diversify across sectors and geographies. He noted that AI value creation is occurring beyond the information technology sector.
Mark Hawtin of Liontrust Asset Management highlighted the rising capital expenditure across the Magnificent Seven companies. He pointed to Amazon as an example, noting that much of the company’s expected cash flow this year could be absorbed by increased capital spending on AI infrastructure.
Other Magnificent Seven Members
Nvidia has traded in a range for several months without breaking out. The chip maker continues to face questions about sustaining its AI-driven growth trajectory. Tesla remains an outlier in the group, moving based on investor sentiment around CEO Elon Musk’s robotaxi and robot deployment plans rather than AI trends.
Tesla is down 7.3% year-to-date. Meta Platforms sits just above the threshold that would place it in bear market territory alongside Amazon and Microsoft.
The collective decline reflects a shift in investor sentiment toward the market’s most concentrated positions. The Magnificent Seven stocks have driven a large portion of market gains over the past two years. Weakness in these companies now weighs on broader market indexes.
Investors are not reacting to weak earnings reports. The concern centers on future growth prospects, specifically how quickly artificial intelligence investments will convert into profits. Companies across the group are spending heavily on AI infrastructure while current revenue from the technology remains limited compared to the capital outlays.
Wall Street analysts maintain that Microsoft has the most upside potential among the group. The average price target for Microsoft stock stands at $593.38 per share, implying 47.7% upside from current levels.
TLDR
- Tesla stock dropped 2.7% Thursday, ending a four-day winning streak, and fell another 0.7% in Friday premarket trading to $414.07
- Historical data shows Tesla stock rises 56% of the time on Friday the 13th versus 52% on regular days, with slightly lower volatility
- Shares remain down 3.3% since reporting better-than-expected Q4 earnings on January 20, despite beating analyst estimates
- Tesla plans to expand its AI-trained robo-taxi service to nine cities in the first half of 2026, currently operating in Austin and testing in San Francisco
- The company expects capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion in 2026, more than double 2025 levels, as it pivots toward AI, robotics, and autonomous vehicles
Tesla stock closed down 2.7% Thursday at $417.50, breaking a four-day winning streak. The EV maker’s shares fell another 0.7% in Friday premarket trading to $414.07.
The decline came without Tesla-specific news. Market-wide weakness hit tech stocks particularly hard. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2% Thursday as AI disruption fears spread across sectors.
Tesla shares have now fallen 3.3% since the company reported fourth-quarter earnings on January 20. The results beat analyst expectations for both revenue and profitability. Yet investors haven’t rewarded the stock with sustained gains.
The muted reaction suggests shareholders want more than good quarterly numbers. They’re waiting for concrete progress on Tesla’s AI initiatives before pushing the stock higher.
Robo-Taxi Expansion Plans
CEO Elon Musk outlined plans to expand Tesla’s AI-trained robo-taxi service to nine cities during the first half of 2026. The service currently operates in Austin, Texas, with testing underway in San Francisco.
The company aims to begin CyberCab production in April. Musk stated he expects Tesla to eventually produce more CyberCabs than all other vehicles combined.
Tesla is also winding down production of the Model S sedan and Model X SUV in coming months. That production space will shift to manufacturing Optimus, the company’s autonomous robot. Musk’s goal is to produce 1 million Optimus units annually.
Fourth-quarter deliveries fell 16% year-over-year to 495,570 vehicles. The drop raised concerns since Tesla remains primarily an automobile company.
Capital Spending Surge
Capital expenditures are expected to top $20 billion in 2026. That’s more than double the 2025 level. The funds will support battery technology development, CyberCab production, the Robotaxi system, and AI projects.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Supervised platform will shift to a fully subscription-based model this quarter. The move could generate recurring revenue streams if adoption proves strong.
Despite recent weakness, Tesla stock is up 24% over the past 12 months. Shares gained 1.4% for the week heading into Friday trading.
Friday the 13th has historically been kind to Tesla stock. The company has experienced 27 Friday the 13ths since going public in 2010. Shares rose on 15 of those days, a 56% win rate. Average price movement on Friday the 13th is 2.3%, slightly below the typical 2.5% daily movement.
The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio near 205. Critics argue valuations remain stretched given unproven products like Optimus and CyberCab face uncertain demand. Competition in the EV space continues to intensify as traditional automakers expand electric offerings.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving subscriptions face a crowded market where consumers already juggle multiple subscription services. Success depends on whether the technology delivers enough value to justify another monthly payment.
- The Avalanche (AVAX) token traded around $8.84 as sell-off pressure kept prices lower.
- Bulls have failed to reclaim the $10 mark and fresh declines may push AVAX to lows of $6.30.
- Sentiment across crypto is largely bearish.
Avalanche (AVAX) is facing mounting resistance just below the $9 mark, where persistent bearish pressure has stifled recent recovery attempts.
The altcoin’s bearish outlook aligns with broader cryptocurrency market vulnerability, and having recoiled off the resistance level, technicals suggest fresh losses are likely.
Avalanche price recap
AVAX has navigated a turbulent path over the past month, with prices falling since hitting highs near $15 on January 14, 2026.
The decline, currently putting the token 39% off its 30-day peak, has come amid significant macroeconomic headwinds and sector-wide profit-taking.
Bears have largely taken control despite Avalanche C-Chain’s recent network milestones, including throughput.
According to Ava Labs’ Martin Eckardt, the chain could hit over 4 million gas per second by next week.
Avalanche C-Chain is adding more throughput by the day. Goal is to hit 3.5m gas per second by the end of today and 4m by the end of next week. If everything goes smoothly we will keep pushing, since all the new supply is getting used immediately pic.twitter.com/NvKSn8nqfA
— Martin Eckardt 🔺 (@martin_eckardt) February 12, 2026
The dip to under $8.30 on February 5, 2026, intensified the sell-off pressure, and bulls find it difficult to break higher.
In the last 24 hours, the token fluctuated between a low of $8.64 and a high of $8.96, with trading volume dipping 7% to 254 million.
The past week’s performance tells a similar story of stalled momentum.
AVAX has seen two green days out of seven, with volatility under 1%, as bears defend the $9 threshold amid extreme fear readings on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
Avalanche price prediction: Technical picture
From a technical standpoint, AVAX has broken below a key weekly falling wedge pattern, with $9 acting as an immediate supply zone.
Further short-term bearish bias is from the weekly RSI at 30, with a move to oversold conditions hinting at a potential dip before another bounce on a volume uptick.
A notable leg down will rely on key support clusters at $8.50–$8.25, a zone reinforced by recent lows. If prices breach this defense line, bearish targets include lows of $7.50 and $.6.30.
On the other hand, upside catalysts will include a reclaim of $9.38 and a retest of the short-term max pain projection at the $13.90 resistance.
If indecisiveness resolves in favour of bulls, with the weekly MACD forming a bullish crossover, the next target will be the dynamic resistance mark coinciding with the 50-week moving average (at $19.42 as of writing).
The 200-day moving average is offering resistance at $23.69.
Avalanche’s lack of upside momentum mirrors Bitcoin’s struggle below $70,000. Crypto analysts see the overall market sentiment as still largely bearish, with forecasts for a potential dip to $50k for BTC.
Downside momentum will cascade across altcoins.
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